I think the issue isn't this or that agency getting 100-200k rounds. That is a plausible number for their training requirements. I think what tingled some people's Spidey Sense were the much larger figures, millions of rounds, which altogether exceeded a billion rounds. I know there is a concerted effort from the milquetoast Right (i.e. National Review) to deem this all a big nothingburger, just the fevered imaginations of the tinfoil hat crowd. I guess my question is, do these purchases fit previously established patterns? If we go back 10 years, would we see the Social Security Administration and NOAA buying roughly the same amount? If the answer is no, then that means there is something novel about the recent purchases, and that rightly brings the "Why?" into it.
Even if there is nothing sinister afoot, it is troubling that we have so many alphabet soup agencies that seem to think they need armed agents. Isn't there a generalized Federal enforcement agency for that? Do we really need an organic SWAT capability in the Department of Education and the National Weather Service? Are these agencies really fielding that many armed agents, or could they be convenient ways to compartmentalize massive ammo purchases that are actually for a much more general purpose?
My default position is that anything the government does is likely nefarious, until proven otherwise. That's how it should be. Our system of jurisprudence is supposed to assume innocence on the part of an accused citizen, and likewise we citizens should assume guilt on the part of the government.