Topic: T word finally used in missing plane story in Malaysia

[trapeze]

Am I just completely crazy or has anyone else thought that this plane might be stolen to be used at a later date for some terrorist act ?? 

You have stated my very own fear.

Yeah, but you can buy a plane and spare yourself the publicity of having the entire world looking for you. And if you are a state sponsor then you already have planes.

Here's the deal: Let's assume one of the worst possible scenarios...

Terrorists steal plane and either kill all the passengers or confine them until...they can load a ABC weapon onboard. Then they either fly ABC laden plane with or without hostages (without sure seems easier which would make me believe they just kill them at the outset) to the target. Target in this area of the world depends on who took the plane. If Pakistan then target is India. If Uighurs (highly unlikely) then China. If Iran then Israel. Doesn't matter because weapon residue will pretty much finger the perpetrator. Then perp gets a return letter in the mail from victim. That's the whole mutually assured destruction thing. Drop a nuke, however delivered, on Israel and the perp will get annihilated in return. Same with the USA. Same with China. Same with Russia. Same with just about anyone.

SO....if you are hell bent on delivering a nuke or biological or chemical weapon via airliner you may as well paint your country's name on the side because the origin will be discovered and retribution will be forthcoming. Stealing a plane to carry out a terrorist attack doesn't end well for the sender. Consider Afghanistan after 9/11...we have killed thousands of them to every one that we lost and they didn't use a nuke against us. If they had, well...I'm guessing that GWB would have had the stones to return the favor. BO? Probably not but you never know.

Plus there is the time factor. If you are going to use this plane it needs to be done quickly. You can't keep it hidden forever unless it is on the bottom of the ocean. Planes are too big to hide and they have to be in the vicinity of an airstrip big enough to land and take off. Plus 200+ corpses are hard to hide.

The hijack the plane to use as a delivery system theory while interesting seems pretty far fetched to me. There are just easier ways* to get the job done without drawing so much attention to yourself. On the other hand, it could be a distraction to divert attention from something else that needs to escape detection somewhere else in the world. It certainly has a big share of intelligence assets pointed at it right now.

One other thing...it could be a plan to attack the air travel industry in general. That was one of the effects of 9/11...loss of confidence that took some time to recover. I personally would never travel somewhere that is likely to employ muslim airline pilots but that's me. If that notion became more common...

*A nuke in a shipping container seems most likely. The US has radiation detectors at the ports but they have to unload the cargo to inspect. The thing about a nuke is that, like horseshoes, you only have to be close. Who wants a nuke going off in their port? No one. But if one did go off in a port then overseas shipping is instantly crippled along with the world economy. Seriously, how far up the Mississippi river could a shipping container go before it was inspected? You can get a big ship pretty close to Houston before its unloaded. Any eastern seaboard port. Any western port. Doesn't matter. Just has to be close.

And, for that matter, thanks to incredibly lax border security it couldn't be too difficult to deliver something across the southern border. Drug cartels do it all the time.

So, no...I just don't see the need to go to the trouble of stealing a plane to deliver a terror strike. Too many other ways to get the job done in the global economy.

[Glock32]

We know that Malaysia is a musloid country, and the pilot was evidently "very active" in his mosque. I just wonder if he decided his personal part of jihad would be on behalf of musloid brethren in Xinjiang by taking out a Beijing-bound flight full of mostly Chinese passengers.

Remember that Egyptian airliner that went down in the Atlantic, and the cockpit voice recorder indicated it was basically an act of suicide by the pilot?  It was a controversial revelation and the Egyptians disputed it, citing among other things that suicide is un-Islamic (though tons of them haven't gotten the message).  Maybe something similar happened here?

Now they're saying some of the transponder functions were deliberately turned off, that the plane turned west out toward the Indian Ocean and continued to fly for about 6 hours in that direction.  What is out there?  Where was the pilot going, or trying to go?  This is one of the most bizarre mysteries in modern aviation.

[trapeze]

Well, if it has gone down in the water there has been zero debris found to date. That situation could change at any moment, though. The area over water where the plane could have gone down has gotten hugely bigger. I'm also thinking that there is a locator beacon that activates when it hits water. No beacon.

So, for now, one has to assume that it is on land. If there is coordination involved they have had a week now to hide it.

I suppose it could have crashed without enough fuel to cause a fire. Seems unlikely, though.

[Libertas]

We know that Malaysia is a musloid country, and the pilot was evidently "very active" in his mosque. I just wonder if he decided his personal part of jihad would be on behalf of musloid brethren in Xinjiang by taking out a Beijing-bound flight full of mostly Chinese passengers.

Remember that Egyptian airliner that went down in the Atlantic, and the cockpit voice recorder indicated it was basically an act of suicide by the pilot?  It was a controversial revelation and the Egyptians disputed it, citing among other things that suicide is un-Islamic (though tons of them haven't gotten the message).  Maybe something similar happened here?

Now they're saying some of the transponder functions were deliberately turned off, that the plane turned west out toward the Indian Ocean and continued to fly for about 6 hours in that direction.  What is out there?  Where was the pilot going, or trying to go?  This is one of the most bizarre mysteries in modern aviation.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581817/Doomed-airliner-pilot-political-fanatic-Hours-taking-control-flight-MH370-attended-trial-jailed-opposition-leader-sodomite.html

Sounds like a Muzzie distraught over his hero Ibrahim.  So, the pilot was in on it from the start.  His family conveniently bailed the previous day.  Find where they are and you find where he is.  If they survived their landing (and it sounds like they may have) then it has to be a Muzzie haven.  Explains how the transponder could be turned off too.

Well, you get on a plane with Muzzie crew and crap like this has to be expected, anybody not taking that seriously is a moron.

[Glock32]

Could it have made it all the way across the Indian Ocean to somewhere like Somalia?  Iran maybe?

[Libertas]

Could it have made it all the way across the Indian Ocean to somewhere like Somalia?  Iran maybe?

It should have been fully loaded, original destination Beijing, right?  So yeah, it could have made it that far, but it would have had to avoid traffic like our warships patrolling the region.  If they did that then they had to have had help in knowing where those ships were or were likely to be to avoid detection.  They seem to be thinking it still may have went down, that there may have been some sort of dispute in the cabin, but the co-pilot has a Muzzie name too, so, I don't know about that.  But if they flew low and juked too much they could have burned fuel a lot faster and forced to ditch because of that.  Plus, the idiot could have changed the destination from terrestrial to eternal.

[Pandora]

Avionics guy.

[Libertas]

Yeah, disabling redundant systems can't be done without more conspirators, and since it has to act like a happy plane off the tarmac it means some sort of kill switch device had to be installed to stop all transmissions, even emergency ones.

It is strange, but only a wider conspiracy or abduction by the grays explains it, eh?

I'll go with conspiracy.

[Glock32]

That's what I've found most mysterious about the whole thing, the lack of normal telemetry. A lot of that stuff is embedded into the systems and can't just be turned off even if the pilot wanted to, so if they were indeed disabled it does point to wider involvement.

[trapeze]

It may take a while (years because that's the speed of governments) but I would say that it is very likely that all airliners (passenger and cargo) will eventually be required to have tamper proof transponders...something that can only be accessed by lifting the hood when the plane is on the ground and stopped. I can think of no reason why a pilot or anyone else in the cabin should ever need to disable one.

Different issue: The plane is supposed to be able to fly 7+ hours with a full load of fuel depending on altitude, speed, head or tail winds, number of ascents and descents, etc. However, it is my understanding after reading a few pages of this forum that planes are usually fueled for the anticipated trip plus a little more in case of trouble. In other words, they almost never top off the tank. But...this being Malaysia, there are no records and no one knows how much fuel the plane had. So...I'm not sure that any conclusions can be made regarding how far the plane could have flown. As regards Somalia, someone on the pilot forum said that Somalia would be on the very extreme edge of the plane's operating range if fully fueled so that kind of seems unlikely. Unless refueling is involved. And if it is then there would be other possibilities for destinations that would have to be considered.

Yet another issue: Assume a hijack. There are only three possibilities. 1) The crew...one or both pilots...is responsible, 2) A passenger or...more likely...several passengers are responsible or 3) Both crew and passengers are responsible. Any other possibilities require science fiction or magic. I don't know what investigators have found regarding crew and passengers. I know of some things, sort of, if you can believe everything printed by the media...such as regards the Iranians with fake passports or that the pilot had a homemade flight simulator at his house and that his wife and kids left the day before the flight. I say that I think I know these things because they come from the media and the media is frequently a source of incorrect information. But...what I said about the hijack possibilities is based on reasoning rather than data and I don't see any problems with it. So, that said, sooner or later the investigators will turn up some clues about the crew and/or passengers that may reveal a means and a motive for what happened. It could be a very long time depending on who the investigators are but mysteries want to be solved so it should be forthcoming at some point.

One more point regarding hijacking: Motive possibilities. 1) Hostage taking for ransom, 2) Hostage taking for terrorism, 3) Plane stealing for terrorism (i.e. weapon delivery system), 4) Pilot or copilot suicide, 5) Political statement by unknown persons for unknown reasons, 6) Something else because...crazy. There could also be something else that isn't crazy but crazy has to be on the table. I'm not including suicide as part of "crazy" because it is a whole different subset of "crazy." Crazy can include all sorts of irrational reasons that don't occur to us because we are not insane. But I can't think of any other reasons to hijack a plane.

If a debris field at sea doesn't emerge within the next week or so then the thing had to go down on land. Somewhere. And short of the thing being completely disassembled and buried it should be found. Wreckage or intact, if it isn't on the bottom of the ocean it will eventually turn up.

[Libertas]

It may take a while (years because that's the speed of governments) but I would say that it is very likely that all airliners (passenger and cargo) will eventually be required to have tamper proof transponders...something that can only be accessed by lifting the hood when the plane is on the ground and stopped. I can think of no reason why a pilot or anyone else in the cabin should ever need to disable one.

Different issue: The plane is supposed to be able to fly 7+ hours with a full load of fuel depending on altitude, speed, head or tail winds, number of ascents and descents, etc. However, it is my understanding after reading a few pages of this forum that planes are usually fueled for the anticipated trip plus a little more in case of trouble. In other words, they almost never top off the tank. But...this being Malaysia, there are no records and no one knows how much fuel the plane had. So...I'm not sure that any conclusions can be made regarding how far the plane could have flown. As regards Somalia, someone on the pilot forum said that Somalia would be on the very extreme edge of the plane's operating range if fully fueled so that kind of seems unlikely. Unless refueling is involved. And if it is then there would be other possibilities for destinations that would have to be considered.

Yet another issue: Assume a hijack. There are only three possibilities. 1) The crew...one or both pilots...is responsible, 2) A passenger or...more likely...several passengers are responsible or 3) Both crew and passengers are responsible. Any other possibilities require science fiction or magic. I don't know what investigators have found regarding crew and passengers. I know of some things, sort of, if you can believe everything printed by the media...such as regards the Iranians with fake passports or that the pilot had a homemade flight simulator at his house and that his wife and kids left the day before the flight. I say that I think I know these things because they come from the media and the media is frequently a source of incorrect information. But...what I said about the hijack possibilities is based on reasoning rather than data and I don't see any problems with it. So, that said, sooner or later the investigators will turn up some clues about the crew and/or passengers that may reveal a means and a motive for what happened. It could be a very long time depending on who the investigators are but mysteries want to be solved so it should be forthcoming at some point.

One more point regarding hijacking: Motive possibilities. 1) Hostage taking for ransom, 2) Hostage taking for terrorism, 3) Plane stealing for terrorism (i.e. weapon delivery system), 4) Pilot or copilot suicide, 7) Political statement by unknown persons for unknown reasons, 6) Something else because...crazy. There could also be something else that isn't crazy but crazy has to be on the table. I'm not including suicide as part of "crazy" because it is a whole different subset of "crazy." Crazy can include all sorts of irrational reasons that don't occur to us because we are not insane. But I can't think of any other reasons to hijack a plane.

If a debris field at sea doesn't emerge within the next week or so then the thing had to go down on land. Somewhere. And short of the thing being completely disassembled and buried it should be found. Wreckage or intact, if it isn't on the bottom of the ocean it will eventually turn up.

Good catch on the fuel, I forgot about that.  And while Somalia or Iran might be long haul for a plane wanting to be invisible, for both those reasons I would think the destination may have been no farther than eastern India.

Nice forum catch too, Professional Pilots Rumor Netwrok...at least they announce there is some speculation, but speculation from pilots should be more germane in cases like this.

As for your items...

1 is possible, 2 less so, 3 I think is limited to short range possibility only (no way that thing gets armed up and flies anywhere near CONUS let alone Hawaii), 4 is possible and distrurbing (short of increased psych testing and banning Muzzies I don't know what else can be done), 5 is late in being announced so it might be off the table at this point, and 6 is definitely in play.  And if the hijack angle is right and anybody outside the cockpit is involved, then the whole issue of cockpit security comes into play.  Per the PPRN there are still ways into the cockpit for many planes and they are suggesting the armored car cockpit ala El Al, and I don't know if Malaysian outfits have Sky Marshalls or not (God forbid they are involved if they are present!) but more of those might be called for.  Either way, nothing is free, increased prices will cover the added security measures.

[Libertas]

Crap, if true then the possibilities are more troubling...

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/breaking-malaysian-air-flight-mh370-could-have-flown-to-taliban-controlled-region-in-pakistan/





That little "military radar" is at our base in Diego Garcia we leased from the Limey's.

I think I trust the Kazak's to tell us the truth about radar contacts, the Pock-ee's not so much...what I would really like to know is if India ever had any unidentified traffic on any of their screens....I mean come on man, they have to fear flying Muzzies!

 

[Pandora]

Interesting .....

After looking at all the details, it is my opinion that MH370 snuck out of the Bay of Bengal using SIA68 as the perfect cover.  It entered radar coverage already in the radar shadow of the other 777, stayed there throughout coverage, and then exited SIA68’s shadow and then most likely landed in one of several land locations north of India and Afghanistan.

H/T http://kaching.tumblr.com/

[Libertas]

Wow, that certainly is an elaborate hypothesis, but I wonder if the pilot in question is aware of and good enough to pull off a maneuver like this without being seen by any cross traffic or more sensitive military radars, such a flight path would be travelling a known commercial corridor.

There is some suggestion that the reason why some nations may not be forthcoming is to avoid disclosing vulnerabilities.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2583553/Thai-military-says-missing-flight-MH370-followed-twisting-path-Strait-Malacca.html

That is plausible.

Now, there are reports of a possible Maldives angle.  But I don't know, that is a long haul and I don't know how contact with Diego Garcia and in/out-bound traffic factors in.

This link had a lot of speculation in it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10704769/Malaysian-Airlines-MH370-live.html

I discount the Goodfellow report, too far fetched, and the pilot (ex-Navy and commercial pilot) Rush had on said the front wheel does not have a brake (makes sense) so how that caught fire would be a mystery.  The fact that several IO spots were found in the pilots simulator programs is interesting, Sri Lanka intrigues me, but more speculation.  Rush's guest applied Occam' Razor and said it appeared to him the turn was autopilot and could indicate that is when he sought to disable the co-pilot, and if that thing went vertical into the ocean as a struggle ensued in the cabin that little if anything would be (ever) found.  That tracks with my memory of Navy fliers saying hitting the ocean would be like hitting concrete...nothing larger than a fingernail would be found.  And the depressurization theory seems debunked too.  I think this guys theory makes the most sense of all that I've heard.

[richb]

this is only getting weirder and weirder............

[trapeze]

My inclination is to believe that the plane crashed into the sea.

The lack of any physical evidence and no evidence of passenger or (if we are honest with ourselves) crew involvement is also compelling. Which is not to say that the crew didn't crash the plane. But there is no evidence of conspiratorial type stuff with the crew. I'm thinking that one of the crew went nuts and corkscrewed the thing into the ocean. That is, for me, the most likely explanation at this point.

It is, of course, entirely possible that the plane will be found on land but right now it's just not looking too likely.

[Libertas]

Sure looks that way Trap.

But for any willing to entertain the latest speculation...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2583807/Did-Malaysian-fisherman-missing-flight-MH370-flying-low-Gulf-Thailand.html

And the BBC theories summarized at ZH -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-18/did-missing-flight-mh370-land-maldives-or-diego-garcia-full-updated-summary

[sfetter]

I could be wrong, only time will tell, but I still believe that the plane is on the ground somewhere hidden.

Many say unlikely.  If you look at 911, that was very unlikely as well but it happened.

[benb61]

My inclination is to believe that the plane crashed into the sea.

The lack of any physical evidence and no evidence of passenger or (if we are honest with ourselves) crew involvement is also compelling. Which is not to say that the crew didn't crash the plane. But there is no evidence of conspiratorial type stuff with the crew. I'm thinking that one of the crew went nuts and corkscrewed the thing into the ocean. That is, for me, the most likely explanation at this point.

It is, of course, entirely possible that the plane will be found on land but right now it's just not looking too likely.

The 777 is equipped with an emergency transponder/beacon that is automatically activated if the aircraft ditches or crashes on land and it experiences a high g-load (crash level load).  No beacon, no crash.

[LadyVirginia]

I don't trust some of the countries supposedly helping. Pakistan knew where OBL was for years.