Author Topic: Who do you trust?  (Read 3054 times)

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Offline Weisshaupt

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Who do you trust?
« on: April 26, 2011, 05:28:59 PM »
So I recently got into a discussion about Bush's deficit numbers.  I  was guessing from a chart from the Washington Post, which was vouched for by Heritage at 3-4 Trillion, and this other person was telling me it was 6 Trillion.. that the debt was 4 Trillion at the start of Bush's term, and 10 Trillion at the end. .  And we were both right.

I went out to the treasury debt to the penny site, and broke out excel and started cranking out some charts. So the fact of the matter is, Bush Raised the deficit by 6 Trillion. More than any other President - even Obama ( so far)  - the difference in the Heritage Numbers/Post number and the over all total deficit numbers is that the total includes the money the Federal government has "borrowed" from "other government agencies"  - Mainly Social Security.  Which number is relevant?  Well that depends on if you think Social Security will ever be paid out... does money "we owe ourselves" count?  The Heritage numbers only showed Public Debt - Bonds we sold to Americans and foreign Creditors, and not the bonds that were forcefully placed in the hands of Social Security Pensioners as their surplus contributions were "invested" - Without that our National Debt is almost within reasonable levels. Of course, what are the chances we up and declare there will be no Social Security paid ? Yeah, we will default on the external debt first won't we? Obama doesn't have much intra-govt debt, because without SS there are only so many other govt pension funds to steal from. Also note the effect total accounting has  on the "Clinton Surplus"

Of Course  when looking at these numbers  you have to decide when a President becomes responsible for a deficit - when it is planned, or just on his watch?  Or if a President even bears culpability for deficits- as Congress does the actual spending bills.  To help you in this, I mapped the numbers by Fiscal Year - (the first fiscal year over which Bush had any control would be FY2002) - and annually - From Jan 1- To Jan. 1 of the next year.







Why do I keep thinking of this?


 

« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 07:05:56 PM by Weisshaupt »

Online Pandora

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2011, 05:37:42 PM »
Thank you for your work, Weisshaupt.

May I ask for a quick'n'dirty summary of what we're looking at here?  Did Obama outspend Bush or didn't he, according to reality-numbers?
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Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2011, 05:50:51 PM »
Thank you for your work, Weisshaupt.

May I ask for a quick'n'dirty summary of what we're looking at here?  Did Obama outspend Bush or didn't he, according to reality-numbers?

As a total, and based on Fiscal Year Data  ( Bush is responsible for FY2002 - 2008  (FY2002 begins oct  1 2001) Bush did rack up  more debt than Obama - but Bush had 8 Years, and his total includes TARP - most of which was spent by Obama.. and Obama is just under Halfway there ( total below is to 4/19/2009) We all knew Bush's spending was bad, and it got worse with a Dem congress-- Congress results below  are for 93 to the present ( because thats all the data they have posted that I could easily download)


                            Public                               intra-govt                            total  

Bush Terms   4,212,551,382,642.03   1,889,814,208,669.66   6,102,365,591,311.64
Obama Term    2,128,160,135,030.22   282,479,416,549.71   2,410,639,551,579.90
GOP congress   1,125,215,396,045.60   1,099,206,913,473.26   2,224,422,309,518.86  
Dem Congress   4,630,716,190,840.51   682,098,991,988.69   5,312,815,182,829.12
Split Congress   213,870,071,780.00   206,902,481,617.10   420,772,553,397.10
« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 05:57:17 PM by Weisshaupt »

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2011, 05:56:21 PM »
Ah!  I see!  Thanks for the summary.  Some things economic - theories and whatnot - I can easily grasp; with others even a diagram needs an interpretation of just what I'm looking at.

::hangs head::
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

"Let us assume for the moment everything you say about me is true. That just makes your problem bigger, doesn't it?"

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2011, 06:07:51 PM »
Ah!  I see!  Thanks for the summary.  Some things economic - theories and whatnot - I can easily grasp; with others even a diagram needs an interpretation of just what I'm looking at.

::hangs head::

Well this isn't simple. Really congress is the one the originates the spending bills, so some of the worst "Bush" spending is really the Pelosi/Reid crowd - Bush just went along.  I was never a big fan of Bush, or of any modern  politician (excpet for maybe Reagan and a somewhat grudging respect for JFK) - But those Heritage numbers had me under the mis-impression that  Bush "only" ran deficits of 300 billion a year instead of 500 billion a year (after all you can trust Heritage right? )- so Obama is only twice as bad as Bush instead of 3-4X as bad. .

Unfortunately I would rather be right than happy.  And all this means is - wow, we are in even MORE trouble  than I thought, and the GOP is more to blame than I thought.  

Social Security is now cashing in those IOUs in the lockbox, so there are no more SS surpluses-- otherwise Obama would be playing the same tricks and running 800 billion in deficit and hiding the rest in intra-govt loans like Bush did.
 
« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 07:54:50 PM by Weisshaupt »

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2011, 06:58:43 PM »
That is some very astute analysis Weisshaupt. That's the kind of thing that is so important for people to get a handle on, and yet the political class capitalizes on the fact that most people don't have the patience or the interest to scrape the surface. That makes graphic representations and parsing numbers in layman's terms all the more valuable, and you've done a great job with both here. I was not a big fan of Bush's domestic agenda based on principle - he spent too much and got government more involved in places where it should be scaled back. But even though I knew he was a spender, I NEVER would have suspected that his deficit spending parsed out as negatively as this without being shown and having it explained.
"A strict observance of the written laws is doubtless one of the high duties of a good citizen, but it is not the highest. The laws of necessity, of self-preservation, of saving our country when in danger, are of higher obligation. To lose our country by a scrupulous adherence to written law, would be to lose the law itself, with life, liberty, property and all those who are enjoying them with us; thus absurdly sacrificing the end to the means."

- Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2011, 10:15:10 PM »
Only 2009, right?  So if Obama & Co left to do as they please, he would obliterate Bush spending this year.  Not defending Bush, but the data does show the main culprit - the Left and Ruling Class clowns on our side thinking compromise means only spending less than the other idiot!  Much bullet-biting needed all around, and if not now...when???
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2011, 11:02:09 PM »
Only 2009, right?  So if Obama & Co left to do as they please, he would obliterate Bush spending this year.  Not defending Bush, but the data does show the main culprit - the Left and Ruling Class clowns on our side thinking compromise means only spending less than the other idiot!  Much bullet-biting needed all around, and if not now...when???

Yes, and two of my pets.

Bush many times said, "send me a bill".  Bills originate in congress.
Bush and Tarp: Bush signed the big spending after Obama was elected but before he was sworn in. Before Christmas Bush brought Obama to the White House and had him completely briefed on the deal. The decision was Obama's. Bush said he didn't want to pass this off to the next administration unless Obama wanted it.  Obama wanted it.
History should remember this.




Online Libertas

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2011, 06:49:24 AM »
Only 2009, right?  So if Obama & Co left to do as they please, he would obliterate Bush spending this year.  Not defending Bush, but the data does show the main culprit - the Left and Ruling Class clowns on our side thinking compromise means only spending less than the other idiot!  Much bullet-biting needed all around, and if not now...when???

Yes, and two of my pets.

Bush many times said, "send me a bill".  Bills originate in congress.
Bush and Tarp: Bush signed the big spending after Obama was elected but before he was sworn in. Before Christmas Bush brought Obama to the White House and had him completely briefed on the deal. The decision was Obama's. Bush said he didn't want to pass this off to the next administration unless Obama wanted it.  Obama wanted it.
History should remember this.





Indeed, Obama in the Senate was 100% for all this crap, and as Prez ran with it hard!

We know the rest of the horror story...

 ::gaah::
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2011, 09:04:51 AM »
Only 2009, right? 

Even if you are generous and subtract 100% of TARP from Bush's total - that still put him at 5 Trillion - double what Obama has done so far, doubling what Bush inherited as the debt.. it sounds like we are describing a Liberal. The Go-along-to-get-alongs ended the GOP and Obama/Pelosi/Reid have ended the Dems.

Problem is the Dems are perfectly happy with crashing the economy.  Because EVERYONE suffers, American power is ended, and those nasty white people finally get whats coming to them.. We must kill Ivan's goat. If poverty is spread equally, liberals are happy.  If we just cut entitlements, only the Dem Dependants suffer, and where is the fun in that?
 
 
 

Offline Sectionhand

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2011, 10:13:10 AM »
If spending as a direct result of 9-11 ( War on Terror , etc. ) were backed out , I wonder what Bush's numbers would look like . It's almost impossible to tell .

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2011, 10:16:02 AM »
Good point.  Breaking apart legitimate expenses in an emergency from willfull waste is near impossible when looking at the federal behemoth.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Predator Don

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2011, 10:57:26 AM »
What the charts tell me......

Whether we are fighting a war or assisting countries with natural disasters...we need to balance the extra spending with cuts in other areas...

Consequence.....Sacrifice......These two terms have lost their meaning with todays politican.
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Offline Sectionhand

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Re: Who do you trust?
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2011, 02:08:56 PM »
What the charts tell me......

Whether we are fighting a war or assisting countries with natural disasters...we need to balance the extra spending with cuts in other areas...

Consequence.....Sacrifice......These two terms have lost their meaning with todays politican.

That's a nice idea but the realities don't always work out that way . We're in a desperate war for our existence right now no less than we were in WWII . The only cuts experienced back then were the result of rationing and the flat out scarcity of goods made from strategic materials .... And ALL materials were strategic ! But that's where the sacrifice part came in . I can't think of a single government program which was "cut" so to speak in order to pay for WWII .

When speaking of the Bush expenditures I was alluding to the amounts over and above our normal budgeted national defense and security needs as promulgated following Sept. 11 .