Author Topic: An interesting albeit bleak outlook of when the SHTF  (Read 1308 times)

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Offline Libertas

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An interesting albeit bleak outlook of when the SHTF
« on: January 30, 2015, 07:40:22 AM »
http://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/hope-is-in-the-past/

Much to quibble about I am sure...but if we skip to the latter stages we can see that for the survivors...the future is anything but certain...that it will resemble more the distant past than the recent is probably not off the mark at all.  A type of fuedalism is probably going to exists at local levels...and what if anything shapes a larger confederation might not be able to operate under anything else either.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Glock32

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Re: An interesting albeit bleak outlook of when the SHTF
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2015, 04:04:34 PM »
Early stage feudalism has a certain logic to it, when the alternative is anarchy over the ashes of a dead empire.  It's mature feudalism, when lordship and vassalage are based on nothing more than who your great-great-great granddaddy was, that it becomes intolerable.

Some historian wrote the description of how human societies are stuck in a cycle, from despotism and slavery to freedom and prosperity and then back to despotism and slavery again. There's probably an awful lot of truth to it.
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Offline Libertas

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Re: An interesting albeit bleak outlook of when the SHTF
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2015, 04:24:19 PM »
Sadly I think there is truth to it G, until certain folks put aside their envy and jealousy and learn self-restraint and common decency the cycle will not be broken.  Our Founding broke a lot of it, thanks to the unique character of early Americans and the spirit of liberty and individuality and a set of common morals.  Now what once were rights are privileges parceled out by unaccountable bureaucrats and career politicians for those willing to subjugate themselves to central authority and what were once privileges are now rights granted to non-citizens and neerdowells.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: An interesting albeit bleak outlook of when the SHTF
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2015, 08:56:20 PM »
Sorry, but what a load of pretentious crap. I know I am usually too long winded, but I do it out of some misguided desire to be extremely clear,  and lacking the linguistic skill to do it concisely. This guy likes to hear himself talk. A  lot.

He claims that what has been done is Constitutional? It obviously is not. Its not the Constitution that failed. It was the checks and balances to ensure it was followed that failed. it was the will of the people to enforce the constitution that failed - or at least- has failed so far.  The founders knew this, some saying it wouldn't last 50 years.  We got nearly 100 out of it  and came to super power status before it was severely corrupted and that is a good show, given how crappy people are.



But lets ignore that..

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They all failed. All were well intentioned of course; based as they were upon “rugged individualism” and Constitutionalism. All fell into dissolution, division, and within themselves anarchy, because they were founded upon “rugged individualism” and Constitutionalism. Community cannot be based upon some political ideology; believing it can be so based is nothing other than Bolshevik delusion.

You can't have a "community" without common values - defined by an ideology or a religion.  Even small tribes develop this. Culture is the glue that binds, and a common view of the world, and your place in it ( as an individual, tribe member, clan member or  feudal serf) is essential.  Feudalism does have the benefit of having a very simple ideology -  that might makes right, and the golden rule: he who has the gold makes the rules. But an Ideology it does have.

Rugged Individuals in this country were able to form a community ( admittedly a minority one)  that was able to defeat the greatest army on the Earth at the time around an ideology....  Hence his assertion

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After SHTF, somebody who has an army is going to figure out what to do with the randomly scattered surviving “sovereign” blobs of “rugged individuals.”"

Is utter bullsh*t.  The rugged individuals can and will form an army ( and a state)  for their mutual protection and bound together by a common belief in liberty, individuality,and the rule of law (constitionalism as the author seems to understand it)    - for the SAME REASON that it forms under Feudal systems  as the author himself asserts

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So, to whom are the familial, tribal and clan patriarchs to be subordinated? To the man with an army. Because the first principle of Feudal community is this: He who has an army will rule. And what is the purpose of this army? To protect the subjects (yes, I said subjects), meaning the tribes and clan patriarchs who swear personal loyalty to the man with the army for his protection for their people. Feudal society was a martial society and all loyalties were personal.

Communities of "Rugged individualists" - or the K-Type individual if you want to go with r/K theory, are just as loyal and personal as  the communities built by Feudal warlords . Probably more so since internal use of  force and threats are not the primary component holding the community together - external  threats of force are sufficient to give rugged individuals reason to bind - and to form armies.
  In Feudal times fighting meant having great strength, wealth and training - being able to carry and wield a sword, wearing armor on a war horse- all of which were costly.  Now  the field is largely equalized by firearms, as it was in the first American Revolution.  Yes, there are advanced weapons  and tech the military may have that revolutionaries won't, but as the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere demonstrate,  those advantages are only enough if you are willing to wipe out a population. They are insufficient to subdue.  Perhaps that will be the goal of future warlords, but such acts will certainly serve as warnings to those who are next that they must band together against the genocidal maniac or die as well. 

Also post SHTF (of the type he is describing) 

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SHTF is restricted to two things; (1) catastrophic natural disaster on a continental scale to the extreme extent of societal collapse, and (2) WWIII, which necessarily results in societal collapse – albeit on a somewhat lesser scale.

there will be no more chips from Korea, no more universities to train in, no more just in time delivery systems, no more refined fuel, refined chemicals, and so forth.  Any  high tech advantage an army enjoys  will erode by attrition.  Meanwhile gunpowder can be made using dark-ages chemistry, lead is easy to melt, and brass can be reused many times. ( and Brass is also a medieval technology)

There will certainly be Feudal warlords to fight, and they will be centered in the cesspools of the cities - which are largely populated with liberal cowards, herd animals and violent feral monkeys.  But then the cities can't feed themselves, and  those "rugged individualists"  in rural areas have ALREADY begun to form armies.  They have already begun to stockpile weapons. They have already have solid supply lines for both food and fuel. No city will have the man power after the riots, looting, raping and killing that formed their clan  to supply an army nor move them far on a march.

The greater danger is that the armies of "rugged individualists' devolve through the lure of power (One ring to rule them all)  into brutal tyrants themselves after defeating the badly supplied and poorly trained warlords of the cities.  So a "The Postman" style Feudal situation is certainly possible in local circumstances . But because so many Americans share the ideology of freedom, I think such an army would be resisted , and could be, due to the massive amount of weapons and ammo that would still be available.  Take out each head by sniper fire as it sprouts .. I certainly would rather take that shot than allow my wife to be taken and raped. If you aren't protected by the army, then the army isn't serving its stated purpose. If you aren't safe in person or property, how can one be said to be protected.

This guy waxes philosophical about the "freedom of feudalism"

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“Serf” sounds awful. But the reality is that the average serf in the 10th or 11th century had more personal liberty than the most rabid and anarchical “freeman,” who is a slave of “the law,” does today.

And granted, there are many more restrictions now, but there are also many more skills, jobs and task to be done now. So to some degree he has a point, but no serf was safe in his person or property.  He, as the author admits - WAS PROPERTY and the right of "jus primae noctis" isn't a myth ( though there is no evidence it was practiced in Western civilizations.. darn Judeo-Christian ideology setting values again -- in a Feudal Society no less) 

Without being safe in person an property, are you "Free"? Its like Harry Reid claiming that Taxes are voluntary.

So back to "community", "tribe", "clan" and Army

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Where are the families going to come from when divorce, contraception and abortion (the latter two are the same thing – it’s called murder of the innocent), result in a negative population “growth.” Where are your “families” when your (so very few and “intelligently” planned) spawn are smeared randomly across the face of the continent, themselves divorcing, contracepting and aborting themselves into extinction with “intelligent” planning? Whence patriarchal authority when “the people” are “sovereign?” (Just who are these “people?”) Tribe in America is a bad joke. Clan simply does not exist. Authority is a farce.

I am thinking the author hasn't spent much time in flyover country. Sure,  the people in the cities are aborting and dying. . The rest of us, not so much. And our families are ALREADY planning to join together come SHTF. We are already forging ties with the neighboring families forming tribes. Local governments ( town and county)  can easily form us into clans. (hell, at least half of counties already are run by the most powerful family)  And once the cities are gone and the libtard morons out of those bodies, the State legislatures will be able to effective form a new federal government.

While my experience during the flood is a situation that is obviously temporary, rather than SHTF,  this community came together, everyone was smiling and helpful,  people shared, offered help , and the county was good at managing the problem..even as my little town became surrounded and cut off by three swollen rivers ( There was no way in or out for 4 days- and then only for emergency  traffic for a further 2)  And no, I don't think any urban community I have ever lived in would have done it as gracefully.  American's aren't dead.  They are silent and waiting.  Because we are past the point where speaking will make a difference.

So no,  I think 6th century feudalism is probably a distant and remote possibility, and if it does occur it will be an abnormality in certain locations ( New England maybe?)  , but I think American life as it was on the frontier the 18th century is far more likely.  A very weak federal government and strong state governments and most concerns being local,and imports and finished/manufactured good  being very expensive  Yeah, that is pretty likely.  Americans have experienced freedom, and they, unlike our founders, KNOW -PERSONALLY-  the freedom  they are fighting for and its value.  Yes, Americans may make up only 20-30%  of the population, but they are the only ones likely to survive a SHTF event in any great number.

And as much as I like Doom Porn, the author just doesn't understand "constitutionalism" nor cultures in general, and therefore his prediction is off.


Offline Libertas

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Re: An interesting albeit bleak outlook of when the SHTF
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2015, 07:08:44 AM »
I did say there was plenty to quibble about, but I do appreciate the clarifications in detail.  And you are correct in that right off the bat there seems to be a difference in ideology, it is people (flawed people) that let things get to where they are.  The Founders knew that what they established could only be maintained as long as people jealously guarded their Liberty and chose people of good character.  We see both of those pillars crumbling over many decades, there cannot be much structural integrity remaining to keep it from collapsing...
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Glock32

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Re: An interesting albeit bleak outlook of when the SHTF
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2015, 04:52:24 PM »
Yeah I read that screed on WRSA when it was posted, and had a lot of the same assessments as Weisshaupt.  There's a certain breed that you will find in the SHTF/TEOTWAWKI discussion, they're sort of a ZeroHedge/PaulBot/Infowars type (even as they ridicule the same), and they put themselves in contrast to the originalists and constitutionalists among us by declaring the Constitution a "statist rag" or whatever.

The Constitution remains a brilliant expression of some very key ideas: separation of powers, legislative apportioning by both population and statehood, use of supermajorities, and so on.  Yes, we have largely seen its safeguards nullified, even as politicians continue to feign fidelity to it. That's not a structural fault of the Constitution though.  It's our fault, and the fault of our ancestors, for not nipping sh*t in the bud when it first reared its head.  That's a flaw that any system will have.  For me, the salient point is that the Constitution could have stopped Leviathan in its tracks had there been the will to exercise its safeguards.
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