Topic: Bad Moon Rising

[Weisshaupt]

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-bad-moon-rising_571563.html?nopager=1

One, the political process, which has been ugly for some time, is going to get a whole lot uglier. You thought the Republicans and Democrats were vicious when they were fighting over a growing pie? Just wait until they finally catch on that the pie has to start shrinking.Two, anybody who tells you what is likely to happen in 2012 is fooling themself. One way or the other, the country has voted for the status quo in just about every election for the last thirty years. What do they do when they realize that they can't vote for the same thing anymore? The tiresome pundits don't know, the statistical "gurus" don't know, and the wonky poseurs don't know. If they say otherwise, it's simply proof that they don't really get it.
Make no mistake: there's a bad moon rising on Washington, and it's foreshadowing a politics of decline that is going to dominate the election of 2012, and beyond.

And I took a swag at the possibility of growth restoring sanity yesterday using an excel spreadsheet.  

Bottom line, you have to make some pretty unrealistic assumptions if you want this to pan out without Social Security/Medicare reform.
As the results in NY 26 show- people are not willing to face the problem.
And people in this country are by and large just not willing to give up on SS/Medicare.  However cutting benefits and/or elimination of those programs is really the only way out without some sort of partial default ( and I would argue that not paying what you promised, even if they were drunken promises you made the night before while trying to get voters into bed, is still a type of default, and the seniors defaulted upon will be sure to see it that way too. ) And who are thoses seniors? Political Calculations worked it out

But run some numbers for yourself.  The tool does not account for any increased Social Security or Medicare tax revenue as a result of high GDP - you can simulate that by bumping the Hauser's law collection rate up to 20% or so. ( I will also humbly accept corrections to the tool  I think its outputting the right numbers, but doublechecking me isn't a bad idea)
This tool is really just meant to be a quick swag for understanding the magnitudes involved. It obviously should be counted on to give accurate answers to the penny or the dollar.

The Chart also seems to load slowly on IE- wait patiently. Or use Google Chrome for a browser - its faster when dealing with Google Docs.

Case 1:

1)Cutting and freezing  spending at current receipts (2.6 Trillion Assuming a 10% growth rate in a GDP of 14.9 Trillion and applying all funds over 2.6 trillion to the debt, and assuming an average growth rate in SS/Medicare of 6% (per the CBO), and assuming 18% of the GDP comes in as Federal Revenue,  the debt would still reach 16 Trillion in 2024 before it began to fall. And 10% GDP growth over the next decade is unlikely to say the least.  

[RickZ]

As the results in NY 26 show- people are not willing to face the problem.

I think that's a bit of an overstatement.  You're talking one Congressional district in Upstate NY where a fake TEA Party candidate drew enough votes away from the Republican to ensure a Democrat win.  On top of that, in NY, when it comes to special elections, the Party hacks sit in a non-smoke filled backroom and pick a candidate based upon cronyism, favoritism, or the old 'it's their turn'.  When the Party does not have a primary to actually pick a candidate, but one is forced upon the voters, one can only hope against hope for a victory.  To me, the lesson of NY-26 is the Republican Party does poorly in an election when the candidates are picked (NY-23 in '09 is another example), whether by party hacks or the media.  We saw the media pick McCain in '08 and look at  how that worked out for us.  This time, the media is trying its damnedest to get Romney picked as the Repubbie candidate because they know Romney is beatable by Obama, just on RomneyCare alone.  How can Romney argue against ObamaCare?  The media know this, and that's why there are all these positive -- for now --  stories about Romney, about him being the 'frontrunner'.

One way to ensure the Republican Party actually picks their own candidate is to have closed primaries nationwide.  That's the first issue in a laundry list of issues, including voter registration/vote fraud (with more severe penalties called for than are currently on the books; I'm okay with the death penalty), getting a national Voter ID law passed (where the government issued photo ID matches up with the name AND address of the person wanting to vote to the precinct in which they are trying to vote), an end of same day voter registration, as well as curtailing the overuse of absentee ballots (military, planned trips, and the like are fine).  When the People no longer have trust in the integrity of elections, only bad things can come of that attitude.

[Dan]

Admittedly, I know very little about that race, but my impression is you're spot-on Rick. The Tea Flagger was a spoiler and clearly did his job by skewing the election results.

[Weisshaupt]

I think that's a bit of an overstatement.  You're talking one Congressional district in Upstate NY where a fake TEA Party candidate drew enough votes away from the Republican to ensure a Democrat win. 

See I don't think anyone serious about their vote was fooled by that, and I believe ( perhaps mistakenly) that in a GOP leaning district, most people take their vote seriously. I agree there were problems with candidate selection, and I can't think of any election I have voted in where I voted FOR someone. I always voted for the guy that sucked the least.  Face it, McCain would have sucked as a President. He just would have sucked less than Obama.  Point is, I think voters are used to making those decisions.  I think the mediscare tactic worked, and I think it will work again, because people want to vote for the status quo - and over the last 50 year the status quo has been pretty darn good, because we were always growing.  Now the reverse is going to, and must, occur, and I don't think the general population is ready to face that fact yet. A Lot of conservatives aren't ready to face that yet - hence the criticism of Ryan from all corners.

If we do the right things, right now, we might minimize some of the hurt. I just don't see the manifest political will to do it. And sure we might obtain a victory here and there, but if the sea of public opinion is against fiscal responsibility, and nothing turns that tide,  any victory will be short lived and hollow. Say the debt limit stands firm - a victory right?  (and the assumption in my spreadsheet) and we have good growth of 3-4% by reducing legislation and regulation (another victory!)  but without entitlement reform the debt wave washes over us and we default. After talking to lots of elderly at tea party rallies, it seems they are out there trying to cut spending to save SS and Medicare. Bottom line, to get out of this, we simply can't maintain anything that looks like status quo.. reducing to 1-1.5 trillion makes for reasonable outcomes, but I doubt again there is political will to cut the fed budget back to that level.  And we haven't even started talking about State debts and pensions
  

[rickl]

I expect to see more fake Tea Party candidates next year, because the tactic worked.  All the left has to do to win elections is come up with ways to split conservatives and moderates.

And a huge percentage of the population is in denial about entitlements and pensions.

[Pandora]

... it seems they are out there trying to cut spending to save SS and Medicare.

Yes.  It doesn't help, either, that discussions of Ryan's plan are based on doing just that, "saving Medicare".  Tuning into radio discussions by conservatives and I find that's the way it's presented.

[charlesoakwood]

I expect to see more fake Tea Party candidates next year, because the tactic worked.  All the left has to do to win elections is come up with ways to split conservatives and moderates.

And a huge percentage of the population is in denial about entitlements and pensions.

True, and a political outcome in NY should not be considered a bellwether.  NY culture is one of the most disassociated from the norm in the nation.

[Weisshaupt]

... it seems they are out there trying to cut spending to save SS and Medicare.

Yes.  It doesn't help, either, that discussions of Ryan's plan are based on doing just that, "saving Medicare".  Tuning into radio discussions by conservatives and I find that's the way it's presented.

In real life its reforming SS and Medicare so they are essentially welfare systems - oh you made too much - you no longer qualify for the benefits your premiums paid for.
We have to present it as "saving" the system - in effect practicing the Liberal "framing"  or lying by getting others  to assume things before the discussion starts.  The fact we must do so I think demonstrates that no one wants to confront this reality .. and you centainly can't win an election by doing so. But that is what must be done. If we don't, soverign default is the only other path.

I hope NY was not a harbinger of what is to come, and it fell the way it did because of the false candidate, but given my personal conversations with others, I fear that wasn't the only factor in operation.

[Pandora]

... it seems they are out there trying to cut spending to save SS and Medicare.

Yes.  It doesn't help, either, that discussions of Ryan's plan are based on doing just that, "saving Medicare".  Tuning into radio discussions by conservatives and I find that's the way it's presented.

In real life its reforming SS and Medicare so they are essentially welfare systems - oh you made too much - you no longer qualify for the benefits your premiums paid for.
We have to present it as "saving" the system - in effect practicing the Liberal "framing"  or lying by getting others  to assume things before the discussion starts.  The fact we must do so I think demonstrates that no one wants to confront this reality .. and you centainly can't win an election by doing so. But that is what must be done. If we don't, soverign default is the only other path.

I hope NY was not a harbinger of what is to come, and it fell the way it did because of the false candidate, but given my personal conversations with others, I fear that wasn't the only factor in operation.

What's that?  Under Ryan's plan?  The way I understand it is for 55 and older, nothing changes from the present method.  Under 55, come retirement, vouchers are issued from the Feds to be used to purchase private insurance.  Is it the latter portion that is proposed as sliding scale/needs-based?  What do I have wrong or am missing?

[Weisshaupt]

What's that?  Under Ryan's plan?  The way I understand it is for 55 and older, nothing changes from the present method.  Under 55, come retirement, vouchers are issued from the Feds to be used to purchase private insurance.  Is it the latter portion that is proposed as sliding scale/needs-based?  What do I have wrong or am missing?

That is my understanding, though I haven't read the plan itself (why read something that you know will never make it into law, and just the constitutional justifcation offered  at the beginning dirves me batty. Any system of wealth distribution HAS NO Constitutional justification !!!!).  However, multiple alternat  sources I have read  suggest that is the case. Here is one.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/04/paul-ryans-medicare-plan-obamacare-for-seniors/237409/

[Pandora]

Hmmm.  That's the first I've heard of "govt-approved insurance exchanges" ......

From The (actual) Plan, page 44:

Save Medicare for current and future generations while making no changes for those in and
near retirement. For younger workers, when they reach eligibility, Medicare will provide a
Medicare payment and a list of guaranteed coverage options from which recipients can choose
a plan that best suits their needs. These future Medicare beneficiaries will be able to choose a
plan the same way members of Congress do. Medicare will provide additional assistance for
lower-income beneficiaries and those with greater health risks.

Page 45:

This budget *** ends the raid on the Medicare trust fund that began with passage of the new health care law last
year. ***  It ensures that any potential savings in current law go to shore up Medicare, not to pay for new
entitlements. In addition to repealing the health care law’s new rationing board and its unfunded long-term care
entitlement, this budget stabilizes plan choices for current seniors.

(*** Obamacare takes 500 billion dollars out of Medicare to fund itself, keeping in mind these are imaginary dollars we don't have.)

Oy.  *sigh*

[charlesoakwood]

Hmmm.  That's the first I've heard of "govt-approved insurance exchanges" ......

From The (actual) Plan, page 44:

Save Medicare for current and future generations while making no changes for those in and
near retirement. For younger workers, when they reach eligibility, Medicare will provide a
Medicare payment and a list of guaranteed coverage options from which recipients can choose
a plan that best suits their needs. These future Medicare beneficiaries will be able to choose a
plan the same way members of Congress do. Medicare will provide additional assistance for
lower-income beneficiaries and those with greater health risks.

Page 45:

This budget *** ends the raid on the Medicare trust fund that began with passage of the new health care law last
year. ***  It ensures that any potential savings in current law go to shore up Medicare, not to pay for new
entitlements. In addition to repealing the health care law’s new rationing board and its unfunded long-term care
entitlement, this budget stabilizes plan choices for current seniors.

(*** Obamacare takes 500 billion dollars out of Medicare to fund itself, keeping in mind these are imaginary dollars we don't have.)

Oy.  *sigh*

Page 44 is saying 55 and over things stay as they were before ObamaCare.  Those under 55 will have options of choice like Congress.  I've always heard Congress had the best.

Page 45 is creating a new system whereby monies withheld from paychecks or paid in will actually go into an account that cannot be used as politicians petty cash box.

Are we close to the same page?

[Pandora]

Hmmm.  That's the first I've heard of "govt-approved insurance exchanges" ......

From The (actual) Plan, page 44:

Save Medicare for current and future generations while making no changes for those in and
near retirement. For younger workers, when they reach eligibility, Medicare will provide a
Medicare payment and a list of guaranteed coverage options from which recipients can choose
a plan that best suits their needs. These future Medicare beneficiaries will be able to choose a
plan the same way members of Congress do. Medicare will provide additional assistance for
lower-income beneficiaries and those with greater health risks.

Page 45:

This budget *** ends the raid on the Medicare trust fund that began with passage of the new health care law last
year. ***  It ensures that any potential savings in current law go to shore up Medicare, not to pay for new
entitlements. In addition to repealing the health care law’s new rationing board and its unfunded long-term care
entitlement, this budget stabilizes plan choices for current seniors.

(*** Obamacare takes 500 billion dollars out of Medicare to fund itself, keeping in mind these are imaginary dollars we don't have.)

Oy.  *sigh*

Page 44 is saying 55 and over things stay as they were before ObamaCare.  Those under 55 will have options of choice like Congress.  I've always heard Congress had the best.

That's Congress, and currently.  That's legislation written to favor 535 people with regulations mandating what medical insurers must offer them in terms of choices, i.e. "Cadillac "Health" Plans", for which choices we pay the lion's share.

Some of these same Ruling Class are now going to decide for millions what choices we may have by picking winners in the medical insurance market, via approved pools, from which to choose?  They're going to decide what "benefits" are to be included/excluded for me and you and him and her and them?  That's virtually no different from what happens now in various States and what Obamacare mandates.

Why not trust in the market to respond rationally to millions of retiring seniors with $8K (Fed subsidization figure bandied about) to spend on medical plans by offering choices to meet their needs and wants according to them?  Why not let Catastrophic Plans develop in the market and remove governmental roadblocks to Health Savings Accounts and let people run their own affairs?

Page 45 is creating a new system whereby monies withheld from paychecks or paid in will actually go into an account that cannot be used as politicians petty cash box.

Yeah, yup, sure.  Sez who?  New system.  Right.  New boss, same as the old boss.

Are we close to the same page?

Well, we read the same page(s); I've a feeling we differ on our reactions.

[charlesoakwood]

I trust Paul Ryan more than Harry or Barry. This is the closest we've been to having our money go where it's designated since LBJ and every lying politician since.

As long as we have a Republic we will have representatives.  Paul Ryan has the best (only valid) plan and as it is we either trust Ryan, support him and others who support him or we turn it over to Boehner & Co.  I know what Boehner & Co will do.

It is easy to be sceptical, why not, they have done nothing to earn trust.  I do believe there are politicians in Washington who are trying to do the right thing and I believe Ryan is one of them.  I will not cut him off at the knees by nit picking him. My support goes to Ryan & Co.

[Pandora]

I trust Paul Ryan more than Harry or Barry. This is the closest we've been to having our money go where it's designated since LBJ and every lying politician since.

As long as we have a Republic we will have representatives.  Paul Ryan has the best (only valid) plan and as it is we either trust Ryan, support him and others who support him or we turn it over to Boehner & Co.  I know what Boehner & Co will do.

It is easy to be sceptical, why not, they have done nothing to earn trust.  I do believe there are politicians in Washington who are trying to do the right thing and I believe Ryan is one of them.  I will not cut him off at the knees by nit picking him. My support goes to Ryan & Co.

I'm not nit-picking Ryan; I'm critical of the plan.  Different.

[charlesoakwood]

[comment withdrawn]



 

[rickl]

Medicare needs to go away.  By which I mean that people who are already dependent on it should be able to stay on it, but younger folks like me need to understand that it will not be available to us.

I read somewhere that it's actually illegal for an insurance company to write a medical policy for people over 65.  They have to go on Medicare unless they are able to pay out of pocket.  Think about that.

Back in the mid-60s when Medicare was being debated, opponents said that it was a foot in the door for socialized medicine.  Proponents pooh-poohed those concerns.  Well, we now know who was right about that.  Medicare threw a monkey wrench into free-market medicine, and now we are reaping the consequences.

[Sectionhand]

It almost stretched my understanding to the breaking point when the American people elected that stupid bastard in 2008 . Therefore , if the Democrat Party lies effectively enough about SS / Medicare , it's not such a wild idea that the son-of-a-b*tch will be re-elected . I'm not hedging my bets or anything like that . I've simply become conditioned anymore to expect the very worst from my fellow Americans .

[Glock32]

It almost stretched my understanding to the breaking point when the American people elected that stupid bastard in 2008 . Therefore , if the Democrat Party lies effectively enough about SS / Medicare , it's not such a wild idea that the son-of-a-b*tch will be re-elected . I'm not hedging my bets or anything like that . I've simply become conditioned anymore to expect the very worst from my fellow Americans .

Regarding the stupidity of people, and their unwillingness to confront reality, I have decided to start looking at it as a positive thing. We need for the now-unavoidable head-on collision with that oncoming locomotive to happen, and sooner rather than later.

Steyn has a recent article in which he writes, paraphrased, "My colleagues like to point out 'decline is not inevitable; it is a choice'. Well, just the other day in NY's 26th district the voters chose it."

[Dan]

It almost stretched my understanding to the breaking point when the American people elected that stupid bastard in 2008 . Therefore , if the Democrat Party lies effectively enough about SS / Medicare , it's not such a wild idea that the son-of-a-b*tch will be re-elected . I'm not hedging my bets or anything like that . I've simply become conditioned anymore to expect the very worst from my fellow Americans .

There really is only one way to solve this...