Topic: Does Hauser's Law still work in a a deep Recession?

[Weisshaupt]

Political Calculations looks at the last few years of data to see if Hauser's Statisitcal Rule  is still valid under the conditions of the past few years.
http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/06/is-hausers-law-still-valid.html

The short answer is yes.  You can still only get 18%

[IronDioPriest]

The GOP needs to make Hauser's Law a household name and conversation piece. It is an easy concept to grasp and summarize, and it makes the case against raising taxes without having to argue ideology.

[AlanS]

The GOP needs to make Hauser's Law a household name and conversation piece. It is an easy concept to grasp and summarize, and it makes the case against raising taxes without having to argue ideology.

I think we've already surmised that logic doesn't work in debates with libtards. I don't think that would get too far, either.

[charlesoakwood]

Excellent.

It's not the left, the left consists of authoritarians, wannabe authoritarians, and submissives.
The group that needs to understand this is the musshy middle and moderates.  If this one thing is understood by moderates the voting demographic would change for as long as this knowledge is
passed on to successive generations.

[IronDioPriest]

The GOP needs to make Hauser's Law a household name and conversation piece. It is an easy concept to grasp and summarize, and it makes the case against raising taxes without having to argue ideology.

I think we've already surmised that logic doesn't work in debates with libtards. I don't think that would get too far, either.

There is logic upon which the truth rests, but then there is the truth standing alone also. Some truths are self-evident, and don't require the constant support of logical argument to remain truths.

The committed Left has no relationship with the truth. But as Charles says, the mushy middle - the people who can be swayed by arguments - are not averse to seeing self-evident truth for what it is. If the argument over the taxation/revenue cycle could be made without resorting to ideological argument, and instead be made upon the foundation of self-evident truth, many of those in the mushy middle might once and for all understand that government is nothing more than a behemoth leech attached to the private sector that will suck 18% of our lifesblood no matter how much or how little destruction it causes through confiscatory taxation.

I sat around a campfire last night with a group of relatively apolitical people, and mentioned Hauser's Law. The concept was easy to explain in basic terms, and easy for them to grasp.

[Glock32]

That Hauser's Law (I had forgotten the name) applies during deep recessions has one especially relevant point going into the 2012 election: in a recession the economy shrinks, and because the government's revenue is still a function of that economy and per the Law cannot consume more than ~18% of it, it follows that the government must likewise shrink. Instead, we're doing the exact opposite. That point should be understandable by all but the most fervent socialists.

[Libertas]

That Hauser's Law (I had forgotten the name) applies during deep recessions has one especially relevant point going into the 2012 election: in a recession the economy shrinks, and because the government's revenue is still a function of that economy and per the Law cannot consume more than ~18% of it, it follows that the government must likewise shrink. Instead, we're doing the exact opposite. That point should be understandable by all but the most fervent socialists.

 

It really highlights just how incompatible Ruling Class economics is with the rest of our economy.  Talk about divorced from reality!

[Weisshaupt]

That Hauser's Law (I had forgotten the name) applies during deep recessions has one especially relevant point going into the 2012 election: in a recession the economy shrinks, and because the government's revenue is still a function of that economy and per the Law cannot consume more than ~18% of it, it follows that the government must likewise shrink. Instead, we're doing the exact opposite. That point should be understandable by all but the most fervent socialists.

Hauser's "law" is really more of a statisitcal oddity...one that is consistent enough the CBO uses it to estimate revenues.  However if conditions change in the right way, we could see different results. ( say a law similar to that proposed in the U.K. where the government gets your paycheck first, and then decides how much you keep, or a National Property tax) The hypothesis for the underlying cause of the rule is that people are free to choose, so they choose to hide/shelter money, and or to "go Galt" and not make or invest it. The most ardent Socialist is all for taking choice away from citizens,  so the law is irrelevant to them- the answer is just being more brutal and heavy handed in collections.

So sadly it doesn't really eliminate the political aspects- but it does force the Socialist into the light as an advocate of despotic government authority, allowing them to be attacked on those grounds.  Likewise the ideological arguments of the right are still valid in an envrionment where the basic tax structure stays the same. If we always get ~18% of GDP,  then the only way to get more revenue is to grow GDP in real terms. In a world where government spending is becoming an ever bigger component of GDP ( I was kinda surpised Hauser still holds in that environment) growth is provided by borrowing. Even in the short term this will no longer be an option -- we need to get the private secotr GDP growth moving - which means lowering taxes and regulation thus providing more choices and possibilities.

Ultimately every "argument" with the left is one over is the Sowellian question "who is to decide?"

Of course  its not really an argument because all the left says is "I will" and then tells you to talk to the hand. They aren't interested in discussing the point.