I believe in reality. I don't think the US can do anything to keep China from taking over Taiwan.
I wish things were different.
I am no military expert but I think projecting power that far around the world for a long time period would fail.
I think that US subs could sink lots of Chinese vessels.
I have no idea if US carriers would be sunk by China.
China can make lots of vessels like the US did in WWII.
I have no idea if China could fight well.
Their armed forces are kinda weird and political.
Don't need to be an expert, common sense can take most people as far as they need to go.
The US could do a lot to prevent the Communists from taking it, as always it comes down to the will to do so.
Conventionally, I do not see our leadership willing to adversely risk capital assets to help defend Taiwan, nor do they really need to. By capital assets I mean carriers, amphib command ships, cruisers and B-2's, F-35's or F-22's. And I am not certain from a boots on the ground respect we would have "troops" per se there, though there could be the ubiquitous "advisors".
I would park any carriers well enough off of Taiwan to make it difficult for the commies to sortie surface ships or subs to intercept...forcing them to use longer range missiles (or planes) which provide more flight time and better odds at intercepting. Any carrier sorties could be launched to do aerial activity from that distance using just the F/A-18's supported by re-fueler's. Additional land-based long-range bombers from Guam, Diego Garcia and CONUS (B-1's maybe even some B-52's) could wreak havoc on land and sea targets. Attack sub use I would expect to be utilized, but limited.
China's only real option is to overwhelm with numbers - ships, planes, missiles, subs...manpower they have plenty so that is not a concern for them...and the cost in hardware could be huge...and then it comes down to who opts for The Putin Doctrine first when conventional isn't succeeding...and more importantly when American on Communist or Communist on American casualties start...and somebody pushes a button better left locked?
Or does Biden do another cut & run? Which is not going to be easier at sea...
Flip a coin, don't be surprised if it lands on its edge...
