Topic: Here's A Dose Of Doom For Ya

[Pandora]

On the other hand...we keep finding new sources of oil. Darnedest thing, eh?

Yea, but nothing that we are allowed to touch. Which brings up a question: If everywhere in the world gets the oil pumped out but the United states, will that cause the earth to get out of balance and develop a wobble? 

Righto.  And then the tip-over.  Which will put ours closer to the surface afterward, being on the top an' all.

[Glock32]

Sure enough though, the massive dam being constructed in China (the Three Gorges Dam, I think) will impound so much water that it literally will shift the Earth's axis by a small amount. It's a telling comparison between us and them.

This water impoundment in China will also allow seagoing vessels to travel some 900 miles inland. Meanwhile we keep marking more of our resources off limits.

[Alphabet Soup]

Sure enough though, the massive dam being constructed in China (the Aswan High Dam, I think) will impound so much water that it literally will shift the Earth's axis by a small amount. It's a telling comparison between us and them.

This water impoundment in China will also allow seagoing vessels to travel some 900 miles inland. Meanwhile we keep marking more of our resources off limits.

I've read that too, as well as the weight of all that water is crushing the earth beneath it and causing seismic disruptions. Those Chinese - always trying to make a big splash (OK that was really lame. Must be time for bed ;-)

[Libertas]

Talk about Chinese water torture!

[Weisshaupt]

I think it's more a case of what is economically feasible.  The oil that's easiest to pump was pumped when prices were lower.  At the time it didn't make economic sense to expend Herculean efforts to wring out every last drop from those wells.  When the price of oil goes up, then those old wells are revisited and some more oil can be squeezed out with newer and more expensive technology.  I think the same applies to gold mining.

You have hit it on the head.  There is no such thing as a "dry well" - only a well that is not longer feasible to operate at the current price of the product using current technology.  The Ayn Rand character Ellis Wyatt invented a new means of extraction from "dry wells" -- peak Oil doesn't mean we run out, or that none will be produced, it means that it takes more units of energy to extract the resource than you can find a market willing to pay for.  One can argue this has already happened with Uranium.  The amount of energy used to power the machines used to pulverize and process entire mountains into usable fissionable fuel has begun to exceed that which is produced. If the form of energy gotten as output from this process is seen as less valuable than the energy input ( i.e., use that energy directly instead of refining Uranium)  a "peak" has been produced.. until some clever monkey figures out a cheaper, more cost effective way of refining Uranium.

What most "peak" X proponents miss is that some forms of energy are more valuable because of their storage characteristics.  Electric energy is useless if it isn't used, and coal powered plants waste a tremendous amount because they can't be easily adjusted to load.  Wind Turbines are completely uncontrolled and you are hoping the wind blows when you happen to have a peak demand. Electrical energy storage tech SUCKS. Its awful. Its polluting. and even the best batteries, well maintained, will require replacement every 20  years (old style Edison batteries don't , but they need to be excessively large and heavy compared to modern equivalents- which are already excessively heavy.. ) and most battery tech will last 7-10 ( can't wait to hear the whining of the hybrid owners)  Liquid (gasoline) or solid Fuels, once refined, store energy a long time, and therefore are more valuable - worth expending extra energy now to get it to store later. But at some point, that no longer makes economic sense given the inputs, and that is "peak" in reality. Its partially economic money-wise,  but there is  also a alternate uses component.. at what point to the alternat uses of the input energy become more valuable than the energy product they produce.

[charlesoakwood]

Weisshaupt, a very interesting commentary.

Re:

Electrical energy storage tech SUCKS. Its awful. Its polluting. and even the best batteries, well maintained, will require replacement every 20  years (old style Edison batteries don't , but they need to be excessively large and heavy compared to modern equivalents- which are already excessively heavy.. and most battery tech will last 7-10 ( can't wait to hear the whining of the hybrid owners)

My first thought was of them being pawned off to the poor; then, that they are too smart to buy them so they would go to the scrap yard but considering the EPA it wouldn't be cost efficient; therefore, I am left with the image of dead battery cars lining the roadsides.

[Weisshaupt]

My first thought was of them being pawned off to the poor; then, that they are too smart to buy them so they would go to the scrap yard but considering the EPA it wouldn't be cost efficient; therefore, I am left with the image of dead battery cars lining the roadsides.

As things get worse its possible, though like most subsidies, the incentives to buy hybrids helped rich people buy them, not the "poor."  (the poor  will now buy an even more expensive used vehicle now that cash for clunkers took so many off the road.) But as the batteries age, and these hybrid owners are suddenly stuck with a $6000  bill to replace the batteries, and probably another $1000 in environmentally safe disposal fees,  they might realize that little Green Hybrid will never save them a dime, even if gas prices triple. Plus the range/gas mileage  will decrease over time.  You know that laptop battery you had that used to last 5 hours when it was new but now lasts 45 minutes if you are lucky? Yeah. But now its your car, and you can't plug it in while you are driving..   On the Gas powered hybrids, you just end up burning gas- I would expect some  owners will start removing the batteries because that will reduce the weight of the vehicle and better the mileage.  On the Plug-ins they will be turning off the radio and AC just to get a little farther. (Yeah, I would like to come over, but I won't make it tonight, using the headlamps consume too much juice) . A plug in is  going to require you to buy the equivalent of a cheap used  car every 7-10 years. And don't even get me started on how temperature changes Battery performance. Ever had a problem getting your car started on a cold day with on old battery? Imagine when that battery doesn't just have to turn the starter to unlock the chemically stored energy in gasoline, but has to actually make the car go! Wait till a plug in  hybrid is filling up the right hand lane at 20 mph on a cold day.  Keep in mind discharge matters too. Most batteries can't use all of the electricity they store.  Discharge a regular car battery more than 20% and you start to destroy the plates.  Discharge a "deep cycle" more than 50%  the same thing happens.  The best batts I found ( for Solar anyway) can be  discharged to 80% - 2000 times. 2000 isn't a lot if you do that every day.  If you have a 10 minute commute a plug in is fine.  If you go farther, and go past what those batts can comfortably discharge, then you burn them up faster.  Somehow, I haven't seen that in the sales literature.

There is some promising tech ( ultra capacitors etc)  that might make (shorter term) electrical energy storage more viable, but right now, the chemical reactions we rely on in batteries wear out the batteries themselves - the only way to make them last longer is to build them bigger, making them heavier and thus requiring more power to even make the vehicle go. Its a loosing proposition all round because a internal combustion engine, properly maintained will last 100,000 miles or ,  and even then can be rebuilt and used for another 60-100K for  about the same sum you will be sinking into your hybrid every 7-12. The Gas powered aren't so bad, because they can ensure your batts are not over discharged. ( I guess a plug in can too, but just not making that capacity available to you and leaving you stranded)  but even if kept above the optimum discharge  level, most bats won't handle more than 10 years of service.

[Predator Don]

Is there any (honest) studies on hybrid battery life? I know two deep cycle batteries in my boat last about two years...and the last 6 months of usage suck. I've went to AGM batteries, they are expensive, but power output does not diminish as the day progresses. Also, with the demands of todays electronics on bass boats, starter batteries are not reliable enough to last a year....I've went AGM there, too.

I know starter batteries in a car last much longer, but normally no more than 4-5 years. I see no reason to believe a hybrid battery will last any longer.

[John Florida]

Is there any (honest) studies on hybrid battery life? I know two deep cycle batteries in my boat last about two years...and the last 6 months of usage suck. I've went to AGM batteries, they are expensive, but power output does not diminish as the day progresses. Also, with the demands of todays electronics on bass boats, starter batteries are not reliable enough to last a year....I've went AGM there, too.

I know starter batteries in a car last much longer, but normally no more than 4-5 years. I see no reason to believe a hybrid battery will last any longer.

 Car batteries last depending on where you live. Here in Fl. I change batteries every three years.In Conn. I changed them every 5 years.The heat just kills them down here.

[Weisshaupt]

Is there any (honest) studies on hybrid battery life?

Different hybrids use different (proprietary) technologies - Most of my research has been for the Solar Photo-voltaic system I am installing. The best tech widely available is still watered lead/acid and then its really what size plates you are looking at as to how far you can discharge them and what temp ranges they can tolerate. AGM is really cool from that standpoint that they have high tolerances for heat/cold  - decent discharge ( around 40%)  and they are maintenance free.  Even so, you can only  expect 8-10 years of service from them, and they cost more than the equivalent Acid/Lead, and they astill age like any other cell, and are still affected by over-discharge and temperature... just not as much as Lead /Acid.   I believe most Hybrids are using AGM cells or a proprietary variation thereof. Of course you need sealed batteries in marine applications ( acid, and seawater don't mix)  and AGM is an excellent fit.

I spent a lot of money building  very insulated shed to house the PV system battery bank because lead acid will loose 30-40% of their capacity if they get cold. They are killed dead if they are allowed to freeze. I looked long and hard at AGMs for that too.. I liked to zero maintenance aspect,  but for the same price I get 20  years of service if I do monthly maintenance ( add distilled water) on lead acid, and only get 7-10 out of the AGMs, plus I have the ability to drain to 80%  without damaging the batts, with AGM its only 40%. ( in a properly designed system, you are trying to go no lower than around 20% to increase the battery life..)

Bottom line, in many cases pumping water up a hill and using a hydro-electric dynamo when power is needed  is on par with the efficiency of current battery systems.. that is how bad they are.
 

[Predator Don]

Is there any (honest) studies on hybrid battery life?

Different hybrids use different (proprietary) technologies - Most of my research has been for the Solar Photo-voltaic system I am installing. The best tech widely available is still watered lead/acid and then its really what size plates you are looking at as to how far you can discharge them and what temp ranges they can tolerate. AGM is really cool from that standpoint that they have high tolerances for heat/cold  - decent discharge ( around 40%)  and they are maintenance free.  Even so, you can only  expect 8-10 years of service from them, and they cost more than the equivalent Acid/Lead, and they astill age like any other cell, and are still affected by over-discharge and temperature... just not as much as Lead /Acid.   I believe most Hybrids are using AGM cells or a proprietary variation thereof. Of course you need sealed batteries in marine applications ( acid, and seawater don't mix)  and AGM is an excellent fit.

I spent a lot of money building  very insulated shed to house the PV system battery bank because lead acid will loose 30-40% of their capacity if they get cold. They are killed dead if they are allowed to freeze. I looked long and hard at AGMs for that too.. I liked to zero maintenance aspect,  but for the same price I get 20  years of service if I do monthly maintenance ( add distilled water) on lead acid, and only get 7-10 out of the AGMs, plus I have the ability to drain to 80%  without damaging the batts, with AGM its only 40%. ( in a properly designed system, you are trying to go no lower than around 20% to increase the battery life..)

Bottom line, in many cases pumping water up a hill and using a hydro-electric dynamo when power is needed  is on par with the efficiency of current battery systems.. that is how bad they are.
 

I never expect (or receive) more than a couple years out of a battery in my boat. I've only had the AGM's this year, but so far it is superior in regards to operating my trolling moter.....No loss of power as the day progresses. Same for the starting battery. I'm interested to see what type of life I receive.

I bought DEKA's, they are located here in Middle Tennessee.....They also build the Bass Pro models in thier stores if you ever go there to purchase a battery. I bought 2nds in the AGM's....90.00 each. They are sealed and most of the "damage" is cosmetic. Nothing wrong with the batteries.

Don't know where you are buying batteries, but if you can hook up with a manufacturer, like DECA, they can lead you thru the battery jargon and get you in product fitting your project.

[AlanS]

You have hit it on the head.  There is no such thing as a "dry well" - only a well that is not longer feasible to operate at the current price of the product using current technology. 

I'm going to have to mostly disagree with this point. I say mostly because my oilfield experience is limited to the Gulf of Mexico. It may be entirely different on land based wells. A well is depleted in 1 of 2 ways. Either all of the hydrocarbons are depleted and all you get is saltwater or you have insufficient pressure to get the hydrocarbons out of the reservoir and to the surface. Normally, by the time the pressure drops too low to get the hydrocarbons out, there's very little left in the reservoir anyway. Even with the latest and greatest technology, the amount of residue left behind is not feasible to retrieve. Reservoirs only hold a finite amount of hydrocarbons, and when they're gone, they're gone.

[Weisshaupt]

You have hit it on the head.  There is no such thing as a "dry well" - only a well that is not longer feasible to operate at the current price of the product using current technology. 

I'm going to have to mostly disagree with this point. .. Even with the latest and greatest technology, the amount of residue left behind is not feasible to retrieve. Reservoirs only hold a finite amount of hydrocarbons, and when they're gone, they're gone.

I don't doubt that there is a finite amount in  a reservoir, only that the humans are currently really getting anywhere near 100% of what is there.  The point is that someone might come along with a cost-effective new process that allows you to grab that residue that is currently being left in the hole.  So in 2011, that residue is unretrieveable and its a "dry hole"   In  2125 we use star trek transporter tech to target and beam up individual  hydrocarbon molecules scattered in wide areas of  liquid and rock around the "dry hole". Maybe we find a cost effective method of speeding up hydrocarbon formation, and thus can fill the holes back up again.  The key is that you can't discount future technology - it can  and will change the rules and the economics.

Long before now people were predicting peak food and somehow that didn't come to pass because new technology and methods changed the rules. There is a risk that someday the "where there is a will, there is a way" clever monkeys won't come through, and that will change the rules again, but it demonstrates the difficulty of predicting the peak in the production of anything based on finite resources.