Topic: The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven States

[CatholicCrusader]

The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven States
National polls are nice, but Electoral College math is what matters.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903918104576504520213848188.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

By LARRY J. SABATO

Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses, primaries—that's the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College.

The emerging general election contest gives every sign of being highly competitive, unlike 2008. Of course, things can change: Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were both in trouble at this point in their first terms, and George H.W. Bush still looked safe. Unexpectedly strong economic growth could make Mr. Obama's re-election path much easier than it currently looks, as could the nomination of a damaged Republican candidate. But a few more weeks like the past couple, and Mr. Obama's re-election trajectory will resemble Jimmy Carter's.

Both parties are sensibly planning for a close election. For all the talk about how Hispanics or young people will vote, the private chatter is about a few vital swing states. It's always the Electoral College math that matters most.

Voting is predictable for well over half the states, so even 14 months out it's easy to shade in most of the map for November 2012.

Barring a Carter-like collapse, President Obama is assured of 175 electoral votes from 12 deep-blue states and the District of Columbia: California (55 electoral votes), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington state (12) and Washington, D.C. (3). Three more states are not quite as certain, but still likely Democratic: Maine (4), Minnesota (10) and Oregon (7). Even though Minnesota is competitive enough to vote Republican under the right set of conditions, it is the state with the longest Democratic presidential streak, dating to 1976.

Four other states usually vote Democratic for president, but they're hardly a sure thing: Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10). A low Hispanic vote in 2012 could flip New Mexico, as Al Gore carried it by only 366 votes in 2000 and a dedicated effort by George W. Bush flipped it in 2004. In Michigan, economic problems might cause voters to cool on Democrats. Wisconsin, narrowly Democratic in 2000 and 2004, is a cauldron of unpredictable countertrends. And although Pennsylvania has frustrated all GOP attempts to win it over since 1988, recent polls have shown weakness for Mr. Obama there. These 51 electoral votes will be GOP targets if conditions in the fall of 2012 approximate today's.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have their own firewall. Almost any sentient GOP nominee will carry Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3). These 18 states have 105 electoral votes.

The Obama forces have bravely boasted that they can turn Arizona (11), Georgia (16) and Texas (38), mainly because of growing Latino voting power. But with the economy in the tank, electoral claims on these big three will likely go the way of John McCain's early declaration in '08 that California was within his grasp. Count another 65 red votes here.

Four years ago, even optimistic Democrats didn't think they would pick up Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), or an electoral vote in Nebraska (which like Maine awards one vote per congressional district), yet all three went for Mr. Obama by small margins. In 2012, Indiana is likely to desert him, as is the one Cornhusker district. To keep North Carolina, the Democrats chose Charlotte for their national convention and will make a big play statewide. As of now, it looks tough for them. Thus Republicans are in the lead to win 26 more electors. Missouri was the sole squeaker that went for McCain; few believe it will be tight next year, so the GOP will likely have those 10 votes, too.

Republicans therefore are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. That's why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).

Prior to Obama's 2008 victories in each of these states, several had generally or firmly leaned Republican since 1980. Virginia, which hadn't voted Democratic since 1964, was the biggest surprise, and its Obama majority was larger than that of Ohio, which has frequently been friendly to Democrats in past decades. Massive Hispanic participation turned Colorado and Nevada to Mr. Obama, and it helped him in Florida.

The GOP has gotten a quiet advantage through the redistricting following the 2010 Census. The Republican nominee could gain about a half-dozen net electors from the transfer of House seats—and thus electoral votes—from the northern Frostbelt to the southern and western Sunbelt. Put another way, the Democrats can no longer win just by adding Ohio to John Kerry's 2004 total. The bleeding of electoral votes from Democratic states would leave him six short of 270.

Of course, the best-laid plans of Electoral College analysts can be undone overnight by the rise of one or more third-party or independent candidates, as shown by George Wallace from the right (1968), Ross Perot from the middle (1992), and Ralph Nader from the left (2000).

Right now, though, a troubled President Obama—so far unopposed for re-nomination—has the luxury of keeping both eyes on the Electoral College, planning his trips and policies accordingly. By contrast, the leading Republican contenders are forced to focus their gaze on delegate votes in a handful of early-voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Still, quietly they're already seeking admission to the only college that can give them the job they want.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903918104576504520213848188.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[warpmine]

"unexpectedly strong economy growth" Is he kidding? For that to happen a few things would have to happen.
1) Regulations including the O'care would have to be repealed.
2) Housing would have to rebound and without number 1 where's the money going to come from?
3) A commitment from the DemonRats to do what is necessary for the country as opposed to protecting the unions would need to happen. Not likely.
4) Comrade Premier Obamakov would need to disavow himself from his ideology of command and control economy/crony capitalism/Marxism. If he could do that he would have, Clinton did it to save his skin much earlier than this clown, so it's highly unlikely.
In fact I'm sure Al Sharkton Jesse and King Shabbaz or whatever his name is would embrace white folks as fellow citizenry. I'm sure that will happen right after the Saudis embrace Judaism.

I'm fairly sure that Zero would hang himself (nice thought) before he vacated his demented ideology.

[IronDioPriest]

"National polls are nice, but Electoral College math is what matters."

That is the truth. I would say the "unfortunate" truth, because vying for slices of that electoral map is part of what makes cynics like Karl Rove relevant, and gives them credibility. But I won't say "unfortunate", because the EC is constitutional, and I trust the wisdom of the founders.

[CatholicCrusader]

"National polls are nice, but Electoral College math is what matters."

That is the truth. I would say the "unfortunate" truth, because vying for slices of that electoral map is part of what makes cynics like Karl Rove relevant, and gives them credibility. But I won't say "unfortunate", because the EC is constitutional, and I trust the wisdom of the founders.

You should read this: George Will: Defending the Electoral College

[Libertas]

I'd quibble with NJ, I'd put that in an in-play category, and I think MI, NM, PA & WI are fully in-play and winnable.  If FL, VA & OH go into the plus column SCoaMF is toast.

Given the state we are in economically especially whould indicate an even greater bloodbath, but nothing is certain but death, taxes and lyiny-cheating-stealing Democrats!

The Electoral College system should remain.  What is in dire need of repair is ending open primaries and allowing defeated primary candidates from running as indpendents!

[Weisshaupt]

Colorado is a state in play, but right now if I tried to make calls or canvass I would end up beating someone to a bloody pulp.

I am ready for a war. Not for phone calls.   

[charlesoakwood]

Yeah, the Republican Party is a lot better off if just stay here or do grunt work away from the public.
My best work is donating $$$ to  selected candidates.


I did introduce Sarah to PL but I think they would have found out about her anyway.

[Libertas]

Colorado is a state in play, but right now if I tried to make calls or canvass I would end up beating someone to a bloody pulp.

I am ready for a war. Not for phone calls.   

I feel the same way in Minnesota!  First jackass that starts trying to talk dumocrapian to me is in danger of being folded into a pretzel.  I'll have my patience tested by PualBots and wishy-washy moderates at the GOP caucus next year...

 

And as always I will financially support my candidates of choice, party isn't getting squat!

[Pandora]

Colorado is a state in play, but right now if I tried to make calls or canvass I would end up beating someone to a bloody pulp.

I am ready for a war. Not for phone calls.   

That describes my state of mind perfectly.  It's why I don't attend local public meetings, either, except for the occasional TEA Party rally where the chance of confrontation is low.

[Damn_Lucky]

"National polls are nice, but Electoral College math is what matters."

That is the truth. I would say the "unfortunate" truth, because vying for slices of that electoral map is part of what makes cynics like Karl Rove relevant, and gives them credibility. But I won't say "unfortunate", because the EC is constitutional, and I trust the wisdom of the founders.

AMEN!  ::praying::And if that doesn't work.............