Author Topic: Your winter weather forcast  (Read 1538 times)

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Your winter weather forcast
« on: September 09, 2011, 10:37:14 PM »
Last 12 months weather unusual, uncomfortable, stressful?  Consider it practice.

She's baaaak

La Niña, the disruptive little twit, will cause continued drought in the drought stricken areas and colder and wetter weather in, you guessed it, areas already stricken by too much rain and cold. 


“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Oh course, there are always contrarians in the comments section.


No mention seems to be made of the fact that the Entire East Coast tends to be warm during La Nina years, not just southern states, or the fact that some of the Coastal Southwest, not just Pacific Northwest, is colder than normal during La Nina years. NOAA is inaccurately describing the La Nina pattern as far as I can tell. I have used La Nina years that rank in the top twenty when adjusted for long term variation and changing variances. What years do they used for comparisons to get their patterns? I use ENSO years going back to 1895, which is when the US data for temperature and precipitation NOAA publishes starts.

Offline rickl

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Re: Your winter weather forcast
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2011, 11:27:00 PM »
Fine with me.  I despise hot weather, since I hate sweating.  Cold weather doesn't bother me*, since I can always bundle up.

*Within reason, of course.  A mile-thick glacier sitting on top of my house would be a problem.
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Offline Glock32

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Re: Your winter weather forcast
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2011, 12:04:33 AM »
From what I can tell over the past 10 years or so, La Nina produces a trough in the jet stream over the western part of North America, allowing deeper infiltration of arctic air. It produces a ridge in the jet stream over the eastern part of North America, which tends to counter the infiltration of arctic air. El Nino is basically the reverse condition.

I like whatever gives a cold winter here. I love the cold, clean air that comes out of the arctic, and I enjoy snow. Basically I like distinct seasons, and I don't like it when the weather feels wrong for the time of year, like when we have 70 degree weather in January. Yuck.
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Offline warpmine

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Re: Your winter weather forcast
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2011, 05:15:17 AM »
This also misses the point just because we're in one of those El Nina patterns deosn't mean that that warm weather coming to the East Coast will be warm, it won't, it will be moist and cold. They left out an imprtant feature which is the Sun is putting out considerable less energy so it's less bright giving the result of colder winter temps all the way around. There will be more heavy snows as it used to be when such solar conditions exist. The winters will be longer, colder and harsher, you can bet on it. Those warming alarmists will begin to wish CO2 could have an effect in truth but it will do little good in the final scheme of things to come. Higher energy prices will pinch them hard before they wake up to the reality of impact from the sun.
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Offline Libertas

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Re: Your winter weather forcast
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2011, 07:21:49 AM »
So, the forecast calls for pain...

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Re: Your winter weather forcast
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2011, 10:12:24 AM »

warpmine, is this what you are referring to?


MIT's "wheel of climate" - image courtesy Donna Coveney/MIT

MIT's global warming prediction within the Environment forums, part of the US Discussion category; The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without ...