Topic: Presidential Election Watch 2012: The Democrat Edition

[charlesoakwood]

Time to revive this thread. Putting up a temporary new name for it to once again put my money where my mouth is prediction-wise.

Yeah, I'm going on the record one more time that O'Bongo is going to lose and he is going to lose big. It's going to be an anti-O'Bongo landslide. Not a pro-Romney landslide. This is going to be one of the biggest referendums in US history. Nothing like it since Carter. Chicago political tactics aren't going to be enough. It's steam roller time, baby.

The sh*t is hitting the fan for President Downgrade. Donations are down. Venues are not selling out...not even close and sometimes the clod is playing to half empty stadiums. He is spending more money than he is bringing in.

And now there's this.

Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill.

Ed Morrisey analysis here. A sample:

The numbers are bad for Obama almost across the board.  Overwhelming numbers of both men (65/26) and women (67/26) believe the current economic malaise is the result of bad policy rather than an unavoidable consequence of the 2008 crash.  Not a single demographic thinks otherwise, not even self-described liberals (46/39).  Even without any other data, an incumbent President would face daunting odds in re-election with these numbers, since most voters assign blame or credit for economic to the White House.

But the numbers just get worse.  Despite Obama’s insistence over the last few months on blaming the economy he “inherited” — or perhaps because of his attempts to shift blame — Bush now gets the least amount of blame for the status quo, with only 18%.  Both men and women put Bush last on the list, and both put Obama highest on the list.  That’s true in every single age demographic, including the key youngest-voters group, which splits blame 32/19 between Obama and Bush.  Only among blacks (19/53), Democrats (14/35), and self-described liberals (7/36) does Bush get more blame.  Every income demographic assigns more blame to Obama than Bush.

Poll data details.

I can't wait to see how Nate Silver spins this. It's 1000 likely voters and the poll was taken on July 9th. Things are worse today than then. It was only a week ago that Silver was still spinning an O'Bongo victory as 66% likely. Silver had better figure out a way to extract himself from this tar baby pretty quick or his days as a wunderkind polling prognosticator are over.

Could things be worse for the president's re-election chances? Yeah, I guess. He could be the center of a child molestation scandal at a major university. Other than that, though, it's hard to see how things could be worse. And that's because at the end of the day he is who he is and he isn't going to change appreciably before the voters go to the polls in November. He isn't Clinton. He isn't even Carter. He's worse.

He is a Stuttering Clusterf**k of a Miserable Failure. SCOAMF 2012. Everything he has done via campaign strategy has blown up. Everything. Even dogs. How do you screw up dogs? Oh yeah, you get tagged for having eaten them.

This poll underscores that reality becoming firmly entrenched in the minds of the voters. All of them.

This campaign is circling the drain and it isn't even August yet.

In my lifetime that is unprecedented. Heck, has this ever happened before? I can't think of a president who is more screwed over than this one.

I haven't felt this confident in the results of a presidential election since Nixon in 1968 and 1972 or Reagan in 1980 and 1984. And, yeah, I was a child in '68 but that was the first presidential election I can remember and I do remember thinking that Nixon was going to win. I didn't know dick about the politics but I was sure he was going to win. Probably from listening to my parents talk and stuff like that...they say that the "Scholastic Reader" poll that is done with school kids is pretty darned accurate because kids listen to what their parents say about elections and who they are going to vote for. Those elections were all landslides and this one is going to be like them...I'm just getting that vibe.

This thing is Romney's to lose. He can coast to victory. He can win with the prevent defense.

And we have an opportunity here. This can be such a teachable moment. O'Bongo and his buddies on Capitol Hill have implemented the whole stinking leftist agenda. They have done just about everything in the leftist wish book and they can even claim that it was all done under the guidance of the "smartest people in the room" with the smartest president ever. Smart, smart, smart, smart. Genius time, baby.

Green energy? Check.
Deficit spending gone wild? Check.
Smart power? Check.
Health care? Check.
Wealth redistribution? Check.
Golfing? Check.

You name the liberal fantasy and they have indulged it. On steroids. Okay, they didn't get gun control done (yet) but they have been busy bees.

And it's all for these kind of poll numbers. Worst ever. They are even bailing on their own convention. Can anyone remember when that has ever happened before? Me neither.

Teachable moment, though. You will forever after be able to point to that one miserable point in history and say that this is what happens when liberalism is given a blank check.

So, I have no doubt that this administration is going down in flames. They only thing that I am not certain of is how much the O'Bongo campaign death spiral will affect the House and especially the Senate races. You can never tell about those. The House is not going to change hands, Pelosi magical thinking to the contrary. The Senate? Maybe it will flip. I hope it does. The stage is at least properly set with more Democrats having to defend Senate seats this year than last. It could turn out to be a perfect storm of sorts when combined with the president's horrible numbers.

We will see.

But I think this is going to be an election for the record books.

The only questions are, will Romney win by more or less states
than Reagan and which states are they.

If Sir Golfsalot wins we will know why and should respond accordingly
with a sternly worded letter.
                                           

[Weisshaupt]

Yes,  I agree, Obama will loose big in an election.  That would be the Circus part of the bread and Circuses.

This guy is a Alex Jones conspiracy nut,  but if the first convoy in the Video is what he says it is, that is a large movement of material overseas with an intent to stay a while.

Troop movement content analysis April - July 2012

Could be "replacements"  for what is there already, or a new offensive.  Could be "just in case" or it could be they planning to get this party started. Obama hates America. He Hates White people.  He hates freedom. Like every liberal he thinks Utopia will follow once they have forced everyone to live according to their values and beliefs. I certainly do not put i past the Fast and Furious head honcho to create a crisis which allows him to avoid, delay or cancel the election. I would like to think Americans would react accordingly, and that such a plan has no chance of succeeding,  but Borat is dumb enough and arrogant enough to try. The massive ammo purchases, the arming of local police with military hardware and drones, the suspicion-less checkpoints and stops, the military training operations in civilian areas, and other general probing activity combined with the long line of Obama Executive Orders blatantly denying us the protection of laws,  combined with positive assertions of power to seize property, organize work gangs, and assassinate or incarcerate  Americans without trial "during an emergency", leads us to only one logical conclusion.

Yeah, I know I sound like I am wearing a Tin Foil hat and I have been up all night listening to Coast to Coast, but all of the evidence seems to point to a plan to subjugate.  Mittens may even be part of it.  Or not.  I don't believe this is organized or run by the Illuminati - but I do believe that there are a number of people in thi world who want to see the Founder's experiment fail - and work towards that goal in the same uncoordinated fashion that markets work to allocate resources.  They want want this tower knocked down, and each of them takes the chance when they see it. Obama has got the biggest chance of all.

[Libertas]

It's not really just paranoia if they are actually out to get you, and we know for sure they are out to get us for many reasons and from many quarters here and abroad!

[trapeze]

Meanwhile, Gallup reports that the dingus is on the rebound via favorability. Um...sure.

Barack Obama averaged 46.8% job approval during his 14th quarter in office, marking a slight improvement from quarter 13. His quarterly average approval rating has improved at least slightly in each of the last three quarters after dipping to a low 41.0% in the 11th quarter.

Please note that this survey is based on adults rather than likely or even registered voters. Please also note that at 46.8% approval he is, by definition, in the toilet. Bottom line: based on where he is now and his last three upward movements in favorability he will be above 50% just in time for the next president's second state of the union address. Or maybe a little later than that...hard to say.

[trapeze]

This story does not speak to a confident Democrat party. It speaks to despair.

Democrats say they’ve tried just about everything to get their colleagues to open their wallets. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has told members that unless they pay their dues in full, they won’t get to partake in the committee’s Democratic National Convention package, complete with access to much sought-after hotel rooms and parties. And in early June, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) tried to shame her members into giving, distributing notes to each of them with a request for cash and asking them if they are part of “the team.”

The push hasn’t had much success. As of June 30, 64 Democrats — around one-third of the entire caucus — hadn’t paid anything to the DCCC, according to a party document provided to POLITICO. Another 109 members had paid only a portion of what they owe in dues, which are calculated based on seniority and committee assignments.

In June, GOP members flooded the National Republican Congressional Committee with nearly $6.4 million. The DCCC secured just $1.8 million from Democratic lawmakers.

One of those recently new and exceedingly rare situations where the Politico finds itself having to write the truth because it's the day off or something for several of their staff who just make sh*t up.

[Sectionhand]

Some of the heavy pieces of equipment were scrapers and loaders which are used generally in mining operations or to build large airport type facilities . The tires are steel radial mining service tires , probably for the scrapers and loaders . The tires are rated for hours of service . The tires shown are probably 65/45-45s which are rated for around 10,000 hours of service . As an aside wholesale price on those tires would come in at about $25,000 per . Federal government contract price might put them around $20,000 ea. They are probably Michelin or Bridgestone .

[Weisshaupt]

Every Obama Speech ever in one paragraph

If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen because you’ve been a little lazy over the last couple of decades and you’ve lost your ambition, your imagination and your willingness to do the things that built the Golden Gate Bridge, causing you to become bitter and cling to guns and religion and antipathy toward people who aren’t like you, and to act stupidly, just like a typical white person or our troops who are just air-raiding villages and killing civilians. Frankly, that’s why I believe in American exceptionalism, just as I suspect the Brits believe in British exceptionalism and the Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism, and that’s why it’s necessary for me to fundamentally transform America and spread the wealth around — just as soon as I get more flexibility in a second term.

[trapeze]

Fritzworth (openblogger) at AoS agrees with me regarding the outcome of the election...

I'm doubling down now. I believe that things are shaping up for this to be an even uglier election for the Dems than 2010 was in terms of (a) GOP/conservative enthusiasm, (b) Dem discouragement, and (c) a significant break in independent voting towards the GOP candidates.

As a consequence, I believe:

Romney will win big (as per my original post).
The GOP will not only hold onto the House, but they may actually add a seat or two.
The GOP will take the Senate.
The 2010 trend towards GOP control of statehouses and state legislatures will continue.

[Alphabet Soup]

Fritzworth (openblogger) at AoS agrees with me regarding the outcome of the election...

I'm doubling down now. I believe that things are shaping up for this to be an even uglier election for the Dems than 2010 was in terms of (a) GOP/conservative enthusiasm, (b) Dem discouragement, and (c) a significant break in independent voting towards the GOP candidates.

As a consequence, I believe:

Romney will win big (as per my original post).
The GOP will not only hold onto the House, but they may actually add a seat or two.
The GOP will take the Senate.
The 2010 trend towards GOP control of statehouses and state legislatures will continue.

And then the pubbies will blow the opportunity just like they did that last time they held the trifecta.

[Pandora]

Fritzworth (openblogger) at AoS agrees with me regarding the outcome of the election...

I'm doubling down now. I believe that things are shaping up for this to be an even uglier election for the Dems than 2010 was in terms of (a) GOP/conservative enthusiasm, (b) Dem discouragement, and (c) a significant break in independent voting towards the GOP candidates.

As a consequence, I believe:

Romney will win big (as per my original post).
The GOP will not only hold onto the House, but they may actually add a seat or two.
The GOP will take the Senate.
The 2010 trend towards GOP control of statehouses and state legislatures will continue.

And then the pubbies will blow the opportunity just like they did that last time they held the trifecta.

No, they won't.  Last time, we went to rest because we lay reliance on them to do what was needed.  This time, we remain vigilant and active.  We get the day after election to huzzah; the day after that, we're on them like White on Rice.  We march our asses to DC if we have to, the minute they hint at wavering.  No honeymoon, no 100 first days; one day, one, and then it's on.  It's all we've got and it's going to be a hard btch to manage, but it's this or shooting.  And even so, it may come to shooting.

[IronDioPriest]

I agree Pan. The GOP will gravitate towards disappointment, but there will be no blind acceptance of disregard for a conservative agenda, or pretending that big government programs or government growth are "Republican" values.

There is much to overcome from the Bush years. I don't expect that very many conservatives are looking to repeat the Bush/Lott/Frist/Hastert years without raising holy hell.

[Weisshaupt]

And the CON continues

Obviously even during his days at  Harvard Law Obama was a compulsive liar, doing whatever would generate attention and publicity for himself.
The man is nothing but a lousy ghetto con artist.  Probably the most successful one in history, but that just makes it all the worse.

[Predator Don]

And the CON continues

Obviously even during his days at  Harvard Law Obama was a compulsive liar, doing whatever would generate attention and publicity for himself.
The man is nothing but a lousy ghetto con artist.  Probably the most successful one in history, but that just makes it all the worse.

Back in those days, had a guy who worked for my family who was gay, but wore a wedding ring to divert attention.

[Glock32]

Fritzworth (openblogger) at AoS agrees with me regarding the outcome of the election...

I'm doubling down now. I believe that things are shaping up for this to be an even uglier election for the Dems than 2010 was in terms of (a) GOP/conservative enthusiasm, (b) Dem discouragement, and (c) a significant break in independent voting towards the GOP candidates.

As a consequence, I believe:

Romney will win big (as per my original post).
The GOP will not only hold onto the House, but they may actually add a seat or two.
The GOP will take the Senate.
The 2010 trend towards GOP control of statehouses and state legislatures will continue.

And then the pubbies will blow the opportunity just like they did that last time they held the trifecta.

No, they won't.  Last time, we went to rest because we lay reliance on them to do what was needed.  This time, we remain vigilant and active.  We get the day after election to huzzah; the day after that, we're on them like White on Rice.  We march our asses to DC if we have to, the minute they hint at wavering.  No honeymoon, no 100 first days; one day, one, and then it's on.  It's all we've got and it's going to be a hard btch to manage, but it's this or shooting.  And even so, it may come to shooting.

It will be essential to broom the decrepit old fossils who currently form the "leadership" of the national GOP. They know that, and that is why they have little more use for us than the Left has. It's going to be essential that new blood members of Congress learn the lesson that going against the desires of the voters is far worse than going against the desires of the party leadership. They must be made to understand one overriding point: I (we) don't give a sh*t about the Republican Party. Caring about party before ideology is what fuels lectures about the need to get behind the likes of Mike Castle, Arlen Specter, Olympia Snow, and so on. Those days are over. Who's getting the swank committee assignments or who's getting snubbed by whom on the cocktail party circuit don't concern me in the least.

[charlesoakwood]

   

But we do need to be concerned with the committee assignments,  Bachmann
was in line for a chair and they bypassed her.  They are now in the process
of demonizing her to the public thus assuring her unpopularity.  Mark them.
Who is on those committees is important to us just as who leadership will be.

Oh, Mythch, John, hold this for me. 

ETA: http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/23/limbaugh-gop-establishment-pushing-to-take-bachmann-out-audio/

[Libertas]

I'll shock everyone I'm sure...

Even if Mitt wins I don't see a landslide, Mitt is still Mitt, and by that I mean rather bland and dispassionate and still being handled by Rovian agents.  Even if the House is retained and the Senate captured, we still have asshats for leaders and I have not seen one inkling that would indicate to me they "get it" this time or that business-as-usual is about to change.  Oh I have no doubts we'll hear plenty of the right kind of talk, but we've all heard that before and seen it pissed away.  Conservatives are dangerous animals to the Rovian's, RINO's & Moderates...pander to them in elections, throw tokens at them here and there afterward, but then go ahead and do what you want anyway because really, where else have these people to go?

Yes, where indeed.  Away sounds good, leaving you with your thumbs up your butts!

Another triumvirate will only buy time and postpone the inevitable, we know this, history can be a cruel taskmaster, and some people deserve the whip more than others, but, whatever.

It's in the hands of the Allmighty now.

[trapeze]

It will be a landslide despite Romney...so real is the dislike of O'Bongo across the country and across all demographics.

This election will not be about electing Romney but about ridding ourselves of a menace.

After that it's up to us, all of us, to hold the feet to the fire, to demand real change in the right direction.

It may be as you say and go right back to business as usual and if that happens then you are right again and the country is finished.

But O'Bongo will be turned out of office with extreme prejudice. I can feel it.

[Libertas]

I'm all for the extreme prejudice part!   

[trapeze]

Extreme prejudice = electoral landslide

[charlesoakwood]

Extreme prejudice = electoral landslide

Yup.  Will he win more or less states than
Reagan and which State will that be?