Topic: Sizing up Herman Cain in today's (9/24) Florida straw poll

[IronDioPriest]

Byron York, WashEx....

In FL straw poll, a late surge for Herman Cain

ORLANDO -- There's no scientific polling, but talks with dozens of delegates who will vote in today's Florida straw poll suggest that many are making last-minute decisions to vote for Herman Cain.

What seems to be happening is this: A lot of delegates came to Orlando planning to vote for Rick Perry.  But Perry's poor performance at Thursday night's Fox News-Google debate gave them pause and re-opened the question of whom they will support.  And many of the conservatives who were attracted to Perry will, when asked for a second choice, naturally gravitate to Cain, who, it just happens, had a particularly good debate on Thursday.  So with Perry not commanding the loyalty he did just 48 hours ago, Cain appears to be picking up support.

It's not an exaggeration to say that everybody likes the Georgia businessman.  The question is whether delegates view him as an actual contender for the Republican nomination. At the moment, his support is at 5.6 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, putting him in sixth place in the race, behind Perry, Romney, Paul, Bachmann and Gingrich.  Not exactly a juggernaut.

Given that, it is not at unusual at all for delegates here to say, "I love Herman Cain, but I just don't think he can win."  And that, to committed Cain supporters, is a source of great frustration. "Because of the people who say they love him but he can't get elected, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy," says a man named Jimmy from Wilbur-By-The-Sea, Florida.  "If they would all just love him and support him and not say, 'Well, can't get elected so I'm going to pick Romney or Perry' -- if they would all just love him and get behind him, he'd be the guy."

Could Cain actually win?  It seems unlikely, but it's an outside possibility.  Cain's fortunes depend on whether the delegates here decide to vote strategically -- to support the candidate they consider the most likely to win the Republican nomination and go on to general-election victory -- or to vote their principles and let practical matters work themselves out later.  If the delegates go the latter route, a lot will choose Herman Cain.

[ttomm46]

Herm's my man!!!

[rickl]

Cain's fortunes depend on whether the delegates here decide to vote strategically -- to support the candidate they consider the most likely to win the Republican nomination and go on to general-election victory -- or to vote their principles and let practical matters work themselves out later.

I hate that "strategic voting" crap with the heat of a thousand suns.  I'd rather vote for the candidate I think is best and let the chips fall where they may.

The word "electable" is not in my vocabulary.

[radioman]

It's easy to look good in a debate when everybody is shooting at someone else, in this case Perry. The focus is on him by the media and everybody is targeting him. if Cain becomes the national target, then we will actually see how good he does under similar fire. But so far, these debates haven't been equal. Just saying.....

And of course, when you have a long track record in politics like Perry, the opposition has a lot of material to use against you, whereas, newcomers don't have that liability. Just saying....

[IronDioPriest]

Cain has shown a proclivity to speak rashly without thinking and lose control of his message. Still, I love the man, and think he would make a fine President.

I hate the electability crap too. But it is a cold hard truth that in order to affect policy one must get elected. If not for that, we might elevate Rush Limbaugh to the Presidency. So the question reality demands is, as Buckley said, who is the most conservative candidate who can win? Problem is, you never know unless you take a chance and push it, and if ever there was an election that begged both risk and caution in that regard, this is it.

The next 14 months are gonna suck.

[rickl]

I hate the electability crap too. But it is a cold hard truth that in order to affect policy one must get elected. If not for that, we might elevate Rush Limbaugh to the Presidency. So the question reality demands is, as Buckley said, who is the most conservative candidate who can win? Problem is, you never know unless you take a chance and push it, and if ever there was an election that begged both risk and caution in that regard, this is it.

Yep, that's why I continue to support Sarah.  She's the best we have by a mile, and it's time for a Hail Mary pass.  Or, to mix sports metaphors, you want your best hitter at the plate with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.

If she doesn't win, then we have to go to Plan B, which is probably better not discussed in public.

[IronDioPriest]

I hate the electability crap too. But it is a cold hard truth that in order to affect policy one must get elected. If not for that, we might elevate Rush Limbaugh to the Presidency. So the question reality demands is, as Buckley said, who is the most conservative candidate who can win? Problem is, you never know unless you take a chance and push it, and if ever there was an election that begged both risk and caution in that regard, this is it.

Yep, that's why I continue to support Sarah.  She's the best we have by a mile, and it's time for a Hail Mary pass.  Or, to mix sports metaphors, you want your best hitter at the plate with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.

If she doesn't win, then we have to go to Plan B, which is probably better not discussed in public.

I want her to get in if for no other reason, so that we can see what happens to the race. The intelligentsia seems to think that she has no chance, and looking at polls, I've started to doubt. But I won't believe it until she gets in and can't gain traction, and if she doesn't get in, we'll never know.

All I know is that our pallet of candidates seems to be elevating the people who should not be our nominee, and leaving those who might be acceptable behind. I wanna see what Palin could do before resigning myself to vote for someone I don't support. And I wanna see her push the race for the nomination in her direction. Our direction. Bachmann, Cain, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul have only been able to do that in a stunted fashion. Palin would drag the rest of the field kicking and screaming.

[Pandora]

Cain's fortunes depend on whether the delegates here decide to vote strategically -- to support the candidate they consider the most likely to win the Republican nomination and go on to general-election victory -- or to vote their principles and let practical matters work themselves out later.

I hate that "strategic voting" crap with the heat of a thousand suns.  I'd rather vote for the candidate I think is best and let the chips fall where they may.

The word "electable" is not in my vocabulary.

Ditto.

"Not electable"?  Who sez?  NO ONE is electable if people don't vote for them; it's circular reasoning, it's its own self-fulfilling prophecy, it's refusing to choose until and unless a bunch of other people make the same choice and this is exactly how the individual's choice gets made for him by the pundits and the media.

Hate, indeed.

Sheep, baaaaaa .............

[rickl]

"Not electable"?  Who sez?  NO ONE is electable if people don't vote for them; it's circular reasoning, it's its own self-fulfilling prophecy, it's refusing to choose until and unless a bunch of other people make the same choice and this is exactly how the individual's choice gets made for him by the pundits and the media.

Yep.  As I recall, the conventional wisdom in 2008 was that McCain was the most "electable" Republican.  We saw how that worked out.

He would have lost by 20 points if he didn't have Palin as his running mate.  If it hadn't been for the stock market crash, she might very well have dragged his sorry ass across the finish line.

[Predator Don]

I never trust polling unless I see the criteria used in the poll. Most are slanted to a political belief.

So don't tell me Sarah Palin can't defeat hussian obama because of a "poll".

I hope she gets in. I believe she will wait until November.

[charlesoakwood]

Cain has improved greatly and has figured out how to convey his message to the audience.  Typical businessman analyzing how best to present his product.  ::admiration::  His presentation will however need to improve exponentially to make it to top two. And that also includes being able to elaborate on topics he's not versed in such as immigration, "high walls and wide doors" is lyrical and if he fills it in (and other topics) equally as well he will vault.  I think he is the person best able to do that.

The results, allowing for Paulinian skew, will be interesting.

[charlesoakwood]

Wow, did I completely miss an exclusive or what? York’s account closely matches what Sarah told me last night: Perry’s supporters at the GOP event seemed demoralized Friday, while Cain’s supporters were fired up.

We don’t yet know how this will translate to straw-poll votes — the result will be announced about 5 p.m. ET today — but I’m kicking myself for not going with Sarah’s report when she first told me about it.

  The Other McCain

[IronDioPriest]

Cain pulling out a win or a strong 2nd in the Florida straw poll would be a big deal.

[charlesoakwood]

And the Winner is...Herman Cain!

[IronDioPriest]

Really!?! Woo-hoo!!!

Hopefully that'll give his campaign some needed juice.

[rickl]

I like it.  This will throw the professional talking heads into a tizzy, which is always a good thing.

Although Cain has had some missteps, I still like him better than either Perry or Romney.

[rickl]

The Other McCain

Comment at The Other McCain:

My only question is, will he treat Obama with the respect the office of the President deserves, or will he rip into him and tear him a new asshole. Anybody that does the latter, and can be counted on to continue doing the latter, has my support.

Heh.

[Glock32]

His campaign website is down due to all the traffic. I like his tax proposal, not just the figures, but the elimination of a byzantine tax code that has been designed for generations of social engineering. Revenue is very much a secondary role of the tax code. No effort to roll back government will succeed without breaking the back of the tax code.

[charlesoakwood]

Final straw poll results from Florida

Herman Cain, 37.1%
Rick Perry, 15.4%
Mitt Romney, 14.0%
Rick Santorum, 10.9%
Ron Paul, 10.4%
Newt Gingrich, 8.4%
Jon Huntsman, 2.3%
Michele Bachmann, 1.5%

...Godfather Pizza CEO Herman Cain won

[IronDioPriest]

... And the bottom drops out for Bachmann. I'll continue to look forward to her moving the debate in a constitutional direction, but I think I am coming to grips with the reality that she peaked in Iowa.