Author Topic: Is the EU Going to Topple?  (Read 104400 times)

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charlesoakwood

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #80 on: November 26, 2011, 12:00:52 PM »
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917161/OECD-figures-suggest-Britains-economy-will-slip-back-into-recession-at-the-start-of-next-year.html

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The Organisation for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) is predicting that the economy will shrink, the Government was warned on Thursday.

Whitehall sources said the forecasts suggest that growth would be negative during the first six months of next year due to the euro crisis.

The prediction, to be published on Monday, is the first from a respected forecaster to indicate that Britain faces a double-dip recession.

War - Slippin' Into Darkness


Offline BMG

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #81 on: November 26, 2011, 07:04:02 PM »
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

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As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.

Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.

The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.

A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.
“The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government.” 
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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #82 on: November 26, 2011, 07:05:18 PM »
More time to prepare?  For riots?  Food shortages?  What?

With Britain one of the foremost Nanny-stater, criminal-coddling countries, I'm quite sure their idea of "preparation" differs greatly from mine.

"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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Offline BMG

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #83 on: November 26, 2011, 07:31:47 PM »
I believe that in this context, the British government is thinking that these delays to the inevitable (I believe it's inevitable, but that is just my opinion and I am no expert so take my opinion with a grain of salt) are giving them more time to blunt the financial impact - though I doubt they can prepare enough to have any meaningful impact on the coming storm. I also believe that it gives them more time to train the troops in order to put down the inevitable social unrest.

Shades of what is coming our way if all of this comes to pass because, as I mentioned in an earlier post, if the EU collapses we will also and it will happen virtually overnight, if not immediately. Any government will ALWAYS seek to protect itself; it is the nature of government. Therefore, I have no doubt whatsoever that if social unrest is what all of this turmoil eventually leads to in Europe, then the state will do whatever it needs to do in order to survive...

...and I have no illusions that our own government will not do the same. Because no matter how benevolent a government is, it has one purpose and that is to exist by any means available to it. It will do whatever it takes to meet that end...whether by hook, by crook or at the end of a gun.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2011, 07:34:57 PM by BMG »
“The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government.” 
- Patrick Henry

"The more corrupt the state, the more it legislates."
- Tacitus

Offline trapeze

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #84 on: November 26, 2011, 08:17:02 PM »
I believe that the failure of the Euro is inevitable.

What I don't know (and I don't think anyone else knows) is what the consequences of that will be for us.

Sure am glad I live where I do, though. I wouldn't want to be in a major metropolitan area if things get ugly.
In a doomsday scenario, hippies will be among the first casualties. So not everything about doomsday will be bad.

charlesoakwood

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #85 on: November 26, 2011, 08:20:45 PM »

Being a completely independent and sovereign nation will be
a traumatic reality for the nanny pols, they are more dependent
upon the illusion of inclusion than the hoi polloi, they need time
to prepare their psyche.


Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #86 on: November 26, 2011, 11:52:57 PM »
Shades of what is coming our way if all of this comes to pass because, as I mentioned in an earlier post, if the EU collapses we will also and it will happen virtually overnight, if not immediately. Any government will ALWAYS seek to protect itself; it is the nature of government. Therefore, I have no doubt whatsoever that if social unrest is what all of this turmoil eventually leads to in Europe, then the state will do whatever it needs to do in order to survive...

...and I have no illusions that our own government will not do the same. Because no matter how benevolent a government is, it has one purpose and that is to exist by any means available to it. It will do whatever it takes to meet that end...whether by hook, by crook or at the end of a gun.

Our banks have huge exposure to European debt.  A collapse there will result in another "crisis" --  but keep it straight--- Our banksheets are worse than that of any country in Europe. With 50-80 Trillion in liabilities, just at the federal level, another couple trillion in Mortgages, another trillion in student loans and 5-10 Trillion in individual state and loacl government liabilities,  we are in much worse shape than even Greece.  But we have thw worlds reserve currency and a printing press, and they will use it to drag this out for as long as possible - including printing and loaning money to Europe.  Then if that fails there are always SDRs.  Bottom line, I think the governments of the world are committed to the slow bleed. That means time for the ordinary nobodys like us to prepare.  Use the time wisely.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #87 on: November 27, 2011, 09:52:05 AM »
Here is another opinon by Mark Steyn.

Quote
When it comes to spending and the size of government, only the Democrats are officially panting orgasmically, "More, More, More; How do you like it?" while the Republicans are formally committed to "Less less less." This makes for many dramatic showdowns on the evening news. In the summer, it was the "looming" "deadline" to raise the debt ceiling. In the fall, it was the "looming" "deadline" for the alleged supercommittee to agree $1.2 trillion of cuts. The supercommittee was set up as a last-minute deal for raising the debt ceiling. Now that the supercommittee's flopped out, "automatic" mandatory cuts to defense and discretionary spending are supposed to kick in – by 2013. But no doubt as that looming deadline looms the can of worms will be effortlessly kicked down the room another looming deadline or two.
.......In the course of a typical day I usually receive at least a couple of emails from readers lamenting that America is now the Titanic. This is grossly unfair to the Titanic, a state-of-the-art ship whose problem was that it only had lifeboat space for about half its passengers. By contrast, the SS Spendaholic is a rusting hulk encrusted with barnacles, there are no lifeboats, and the ship's officers are locked in a debate about whether to use a thimble or an eggcup.
A second downgrade is now inevitable. Aw, so what? We had the first back in the summer, and the ceiling didn't fall in, did it? And everyone knows those ratings agencies are a racket, right? And say what you like about our rotten finances, but Greece's are worse. And Italy's. And, er, Zimbabwe's. Probably.
The advantage the United States enjoys is that, unlike Greece, it can print the currency in which its debt is denominated. But, even so, it still needs someone to buy it. The failure of Germany's bond auction on Wednesday suggests that the world is running out of buyers for western sovereign debt at historically low interest rates. And, were interest rates to return to their 1990-2010 average (5.7 percent), debt service alone would consume about 40 percent of federal revenues by mid-decade. That's not paying down the debt, but just staying current on the interest payments.
And yet, when it comes to spending and stimulus and entitlements and agencies and regulations and bureaucrats, "more, more, more/how do you like it?" remains the way to bet. Will a Republican president make a difference to this grim trajectory? I would doubt it. Unless the public conversation shifts significantly, neither President Romney nor President Insert-Name-Of-This-Week's-UnRomney-Here will have a mandate for the measures necessary to save the republic.
As for Andrea True, back in 1976 she made a commercial in Jamaica. To protest the then Prime Minister's flirtation with Castro, Uncle Sam had imposed economic sanctions against Her Majesty's government in Kingston. Miss True was unable to bring her earnings home. So, for want of anything better to do with them, she went into a Jamaican recording studio and made a demo of a song: "More, More, More." Sure, 35 years later Fidel's still around, but at least the world got a disco hit out of it, which is more than you can say for the Iranian sanctions.
We're approaching a state in which the government spends $4 trillion but only raises $2 trillion. Which is an existential threat to the nation, but at least has the advantage of being one whose arithmetic is simple enough even for politicians: Try to imagine every aspect of government having to make do with half of what it currently has.
That's the scale of reform necessary to save America from a future as a bankrupt, violent, Third World ruin. More, more, more, how do you like it? More poverty, more crime, more corruption, more decay: how do you like that?

Offline Libertas

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #88 on: November 27, 2011, 03:51:51 PM »
Good postings Weisshaupt, pretty much sums up my opinion that without bold leadership we are hosed.  Thus my desire to purge the ranks of the Ruling Class idiots that help advance the Left's agenda, while it must be done, may be too little too late, it should have begun a decade ago.  Hell, I thought Reagan changed the paradim, but G H W Bush compassion began eroding Reagan gains and it's been mostly downhill ever since.  It also highlights my frustration that Palin decided not to run, a national office standard bearer that could have big Tea Party coattails could have given us the chance we need.  We are likely doomed, the trend lines (politically, economically, fiscally & socially) all look negative to me.  Looking to ourselves and our families first must be priority #1.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline BMG

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #89 on: November 27, 2011, 09:59:31 PM »
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8919470/IMF-drawing-up-517bn-package-to-save-Italy-Spain-and-the-euro.html

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The International Monetary Fund is being lined up potentially to help Italy and Spain amid growing fears that a European rescue scheme will not be able to prop up the countries, it emerged last night.

Reports in Italy suggested that the IMF is drawing up plans for a €600 billion (£517 billion) assistance package for the country. Spain may be offered access to IMF credit, rather than a rescue package, to avoid it being “picked off” by the markets in the coming weeks.

And this from the comments section (don't know how correct this is so take it with a grain of salt):

Quote
And the 'EUSSR' funds 32% of the IMF(17% for the US)


So if that commenter is right, the US is on the hook for 17% of that $800 billion (after converting to US dollars) bailout for Europe.

So I went to the US Debt Clock web site and plugged in all the information and assuming my math is correct came up with the following:

That's about $136 billion from US taxpayers...
...or about $435.00 per citizen in the US (all 312,685,128 of us)...
...or about $1,208.00 per actual taxpayer...
...to bailout EUROPE!
“The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government.” 
- Patrick Henry

"The more corrupt the state, the more it legislates."
- Tacitus

charlesoakwood

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #90 on: November 27, 2011, 10:36:23 PM »

Whatshisname is like a wino who's won the lottery. 
He didn't work for the money, he doesn't understand
money, he is so drunk with his new power he is blind.
He is personally, morally and materially irresponsible.
He is personally, morally and materially reprehensible.
The trials will make good TV.

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #91 on: November 28, 2011, 12:15:24 AM »
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8919470/IMF-drawing-up-517bn-package-to-save-Italy-Spain-and-the-euro.html

Quote
The International Monetary Fund is being lined up potentially to help Italy and Spain amid growing fears that a European rescue scheme will not be able to prop up the countries, it emerged last night.

Reports in Italy suggested that the IMF is drawing up plans for a €600 billion (£517 billion) assistance package for the country. Spain may be offered access to IMF credit, rather than a rescue package, to avoid it being “picked off” by the markets in the coming weeks.

And this from the comments section (don't know how correct this is so take it with a grain of salt):

Quote
And the 'EUSSR' funds 32% of the IMF(17% for the US)


So if that commenter is right, the US is on the hook for 17% of that $800 billion (after converting to US dollars) bailout for Europe.

So I went to the US Debt Clock web site and plugged in all the information and assuming my math is correct came up with the following:

That's about $136 billion from US taxpayers...
...or about $435.00 per citizen in the US (all 312,685,128 of us)...
...or about $1,208.00 per actual taxpayer...
...to bailout EUROPE!


Well, Great Balls O' Fire!  Who do you think bailed out European banks with the majority of the TARP money?  You did, hawneh, and you and you and me and him and her and them and .........
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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Offline Libertas

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #92 on: November 28, 2011, 06:54:20 AM »
What are the odds for a trial by jury vs a trial by lead?
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Libertas

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #93 on: November 28, 2011, 08:08:43 AM »
I think that's a steep price for 12-18 months breathing room, God forbid the nations in peril CUT SPENDING!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2066862/Britain-draws-emergency-plans-collapse-Euro-warnings-Italy-needs-500bn-bailout.html

 ::facepalm::
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #94 on: November 28, 2011, 09:50:49 AM »
I think that's a steep price for 12-18 months breathing room, God forbid the nations in peril CUT SPENDING!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2066862/Britain-draws-emergency-plans-collapse-Euro-warnings-Italy-needs-500bn-bailout.html

 ::facepalm::

Via instapundit: European Rich getting eady to run:

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DAN MITCHELL: European Economic Crisis Highlights an Increasingly Important Reason to Oppose Gun Control.


About a year ago, I spoke at a conference in Europe that attracted a lot of very rich people from all over the continent, as well as a lot of people who manage money for high-net-worth individuals.

What made this conference remarkable was not the presentations, though they were generally quite interesting. The stunning part of the conference was learning – as part of casual conversation during breaks, meals, and other socializing time – how many rich people are planning for the eventual collapse of European society.

Not stagnation. Not gradual decline. Collapse.

As in riots, social disarray, plundering, and chaos. A non-trivial number of these people think the rioting in places such as Greece and England is just the tip of the iceberg, and they have plans – if bad things begin to happen – to escape to jurisdictions ranging from Australia to Costa Rica (several of them remarked that they no longer see the U.S. as a good long-run refuge).


Don’t kid yourself. If the U.S. is bad, Costa Rica won’t be good. Plus, this question: “Here’s a thought experiment to drive the point home. If Europe does collapse, which people do you think will be in better shape to preserve civilization, the well-armed Swiss or the disarmed Brits?”

Posted at 11:45 pm by Glenn Reynolds   



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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #95 on: November 28, 2011, 10:39:50 AM »
Oh.  Gee.  The US, the last, best place on earth is no refuge now either, thanks to the same cadre of "elites" that are bankrupting and ruining us as well.  Too bad none of the European "rich" will put those two facts together in their heads.
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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charlesoakwood

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #96 on: November 28, 2011, 11:15:16 AM »

 ::facepalm::

Via instapundit: European Rich getting eady to run:
 



[/quote]

Heard a month ago, IIRC on Kudlow, US banks are filling up with rich European's money.


Offline Libertas

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Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #98 on: November 28, 2011, 11:32:23 AM »


Heard a month ago, IIRC on Kudlow, US banks are filling up with rich European's money.



Yeah. Good luck.  Much of that 7 Trillion the Fed loaned out went to overseas banks (exported inflation) , and more of the same is going to happen as the US tries to prop up the Euro. Everything is interconnected. Most countires keep dollars as reserve funds, and th US banks are highly leveraged with European assests, as are the chinese. Its a house of cards, and its finally starting to topple.  The dollar is enjoying a little rally now as people seek safe haven, but that doesn't change the fact that the dollar is in worse shape than the Euro-- its just protected by reserve status and a printing press.

Yes, the velocity of the money is low, so the extra printing isn't being felt to its full extant as of yet.  Any glimer of a recovery and that money comes out of hiding, yielding huge inflation. With no rcovery we stay deflationary. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.  This doesn't end well, for anyone. There is no safe haven.


Offline Libertas

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Re: Is the EU Going to Topple?
« Reply #99 on: November 28, 2011, 11:41:13 AM »
It'll be like a fat mans pants...he's been stuffing himself for decades and there are no more pants that fit...when the first button pops there will be nothing to stop all of them from popping...

It's gonna be fugly!
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.