Topic: Don't Be Surprised if Obama Wins in 2012

[BMG]

Indeed it does Pan - just because we haven't heard a lot from them lately doesn't mean that they aren't still doing the good work that needs doing.

[IronDioPriest]

I recognize that the Tea Party energy has been channeled into electoral politics, and that truly is the proper path if there is to be any hope whatsoever of a peaceful resolution to the Left-Right conflict. But it would still be comforting to see large rallies in the public square. I'd hate to think one was being exchanged for another. I think both are vital.

Part of the Leftist agenda was to make conservatives believe we were an isolated minority, and that speaking out inherently risked hanging ones self out on a limb. The massive Tea Party protests gave conservatives an opportunity to get out, look around at other patriots across the public square and finally recognize that we were not alone, not isolated, and that if we dared to speak out, we would be backed by our fellow patriots. That is an indispensable element that should not be sacrificed for electoral politics, in my opinion. We need to keep up the visibility in order to keep up the pressure.

[Delnorin]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204358004577030481545613916.html

Of all the noise of this week's state election results, what mattered most for Election 2012 came out of Virginia. It was the sound of the air leaking out of the Plouffe plan.

Virginia Republicans added seven new seats to their majority in the House of Delegates, giving them two-thirds of that chamber's votes—the party's largest margin in history. The GOP also took over the Virginia Senate in results that were especially notable, given that Virginia Democrats this spring crafted an aggressive redistricting plan that had only one aim: providing a firewall against a Republican takeover of that chamber. Even that extreme gerrymander didn't work.

Every Republican incumbent—52 in the House, 15 in the Senate—won. The state GOP is looking at unified control over government for only the second time since the Civil War. This is after winning all three top statewide offices—including the election of Gov. Bob McDonnell—in 2009, and picking off three U.S. House Democrats in last year's midterms.

Obama may win, I'll concede that because there are an awful lot of really STUPID voters out there. But I don't believe that it is certain that he will win. I think that he has a fairly small chance of winning frankly - as it stands right now anyway. My best guess would be about a 30% chance or so.

 I have to ask myself what obama would define as being a win.
 He has been trying to bypass congress and senate all along.
 If we won every seat in the house and every seat in the senate, he could still do whatever you wanted, throw the country into chaos declare martial law and still say he won.

 Winning to him does not mean improving and fixing the country.  Winning to him he's destroying this country.

 Because of that I believe he can win if he gets reelected.  He may not even wait until the election to do that though.

[IronDioPriest]

...Winning to him does not mean improving and fixing the country.  Winning to him he's destroying this country...

Yup. This is what victory means to Obama:

[BMG]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/11/14/whats_behind_obamas_uptick_in_job_approval_--_and_will_it_stick_112058.html

The unemployment rate shows little sign of abating, disposable income shows little sign of rising, and his signature legislation shows little sign of becoming popular. His approval ratings on specific issues are abysmal: negative 41 percent on the deficit; negative 37 percent on the economy; negative 24 percent on creating jobs; negative 14 percent on health care. Combined, this exerts a gravitational force on his approval ratings, making it unlikely that he’ll be able to maintain heightened levels for an extended period of time, especially once he comes back into the spotlight.

[Libertas]

He cannot improve any of the horrible unemployment numbers or economic numbers except in a temporary way that will evaporate faster than a drop of water on a frying pan...the only weapon they have is more Porkulus...as long as the House refuses more Obama-style stimulus, he's screwed...the Repub's have to hold that line and keep pushing across the board tax cuts and reduced regulatory burden...proven means of real stimulus!!!

But, I bet the feckless bastards blink and roll over again, so my words are wasted...

 

[Delnorin]

He cannot improve any of the horrible unemployment numbers or economic numbers except in a temporary way that will evaporate faster than a drop of water on a frying pan...the only weapon they have is more Porkulus...as long as the House refuses more Obama-style stimulus, he's screwed...the Repub's have to hold that line and keep pushing across the board tax cuts and reduced regulatory burden...proven means of real stimulus!!!

But, I bet the feckless bastards blink and roll over again, so my words are wasted...

 

Has anyone else noticed that when then quarterly or monthly unemployment / jobs numbers come out it's... X.  But then it's always 2-3 weeks later on a Friday afternoon when it's released that the numbers were completely wrong and they were actually X - a massive number?

Is anyone stupid enough (or just so utterly ill-informed) anymore that they actually believe the 'jobs' numbers that keep getting thrown out?

[Libertas]

He cannot improve any of the horrible unemployment numbers or economic numbers except in a temporary way that will evaporate faster than a drop of water on a frying pan...the only weapon they have is more Porkulus...as long as the House refuses more Obama-style stimulus, he's screwed...the Repub's have to hold that line and keep pushing across the board tax cuts and reduced regulatory burden...proven means of real stimulus!!!

But, I bet the feckless bastards blink and roll over again, so my words are wasted...

 

Has anyone else noticed that when then quarterly or monthly unemployment / jobs numbers come out it's... X.  But then it's always 2-3 weeks later on a Friday afternoon when it's released that the numbers were completely wrong and they were actually X - a massive number?

Is anyone stupid enough (or just so utterly ill-informed) anymore that they actually believe the 'jobs' numbers that keep getting thrown out?

The bureaucrats always cook the numbers, there is a lot of massaging of data, perhaps a small amount of which is based upon legitimate lag times, but once the noise settles and hard numbers can be gleaned the revisions come.  The market knows this...the general public?  Eh, not so much.

The market might think 410k revised up to 420k and 390k revised up to 400k a positive but try telling that to the newly unemployed, or the (officially stated) 3.7m chronically unemployed or the 17 millions displaced by the Obama Depression!

[BMG]

Right you are Del - it's the way they treat everything. Sort of like predicting that a certain program will cost 1 trillion dollars once we get it implemented only to have it actually cost 800 billion. Then it is trumpeted as a 'savings' on money that wasn't yet spent! Then they turn around and apply that 'saved' cash to a new pet program that was only supposed to cost 200 billion that after all's said and done ends up costing 500 billion. Yeah...some savings!