MichelleO dug
this article up over at
earthineer (interesting comments there too) - This article rings true to me in some places, but it many ways its seems too simplistic to me. The article has some interesting coping strategies, and other useful info, but I am wondering what others here think of it.
My thoughts below:
1) Contrary to the article's assertions, I think long term Total Societal Collapse is very, very rare in History. Even the examples cited in the article as evidence were quite local and temporary in scope, where-as a long duration/total production stoppage/Mad Max Bullies scenario is the focus of the article. Events like Weimar and Argentina are probably going to be more the model for what we are facing - Society continues - just under a different set of rules of interaction that include more violence and death, but which DO NOT make violence and death the main characteristic of the new realm. Even in the Mad Max scenario, the Bullies form a "society" - complete with pecking order. It is NOT every man for himself, because those who choose that course WILL DIE facing overwheming numbers.
2) The article asserts Bullies (of any sort - Government, Private, or Socialist) are Smart, but that they would come back for 3-6 searches of your home. I suspect maybe two. Once for Food and inventory , a second for anything else. Three at the most.. The first under a humanitarian guise, by the third as as open violence. The article's time-table suggests the last things bullies would come for is men and women to work but if the bullies are so smart, they know sustainability is going to require getting some production going again, and they will know it day one and act accordingly
3) The 2 or 3 search time-table is further reinforced by the idea of riots. The article suggests churches and other charities will experience mob violence under suspicions of hoarding, but the article neglects to mention that any bullies collecting under "humanitarian" cover will experience the same fate. Once the riots start, the Bullies in charge will be forced to either surrender their ill-gotten stores or they will be forced to kill the rioters to prevent it. Either way, the intentions of the bullies are revealed, and further searches after the event are going to be met with armed resistence.
4) The article seems to assume no communication within existing organizations -PTA, Clubs, Work places, Churches, and even police forces, fire forces, local governments etc may act to spread news or to resist the bullies anywhere these organizations do not become agencies of the bullies themselves. These organizations will become lifelines of information and mills of rumor. Where people within these organizations are of similar enough mind, they will begin to act in concert. People will be ill at ease and be keeping an ear to the ground for ANY news. Sorting truth from rumor will be difficult, and most will be forced to assume the worst, but if there are groups collecting food, weapons, fuel, tools, and slaves, word is going to get around and those capable of resistance will organize and engage. Ties in rural communities tend to be stronger - there are fewer people to know, outsiders are more easily recognized by sight, and circumstances have already forced many to work together to survive a bad storm, a drought, etc. Need an example? The Mormon Church and Utah. They are welll known preppers, and as such will be immediate targets. The folks in Utah bough twice as many guns this year as last year, and I suspect this is because the Church itself has assied orders to prepare. 2nd example? Glenn Becks 9/12 movement - many of those local groups have begun to prep together - even though no one intended that outcome.
5) America has the most heavily armed/high tech and educated population in the history of the world - what has happened before may not happen here because the situation is entirely different- especially given our cultural legacy. This will lead many segments of our population to resist long before other populations in the past have realized they must. The article suggests that the "humanitarians" will come and confiscate weapons except for a pistol or a bolt action rifle. In a true SHTF survival scenario, an American raised on our heritage WILL NOT meekly give up those weapons. How many houses can a 20 Man squad hit before a self-styled militia meets and ambushes them? How many homes can they invade loosing even a single man at each location?
6) The forces that cause Bullies to band together for mutal protection and gain also exist for those who don't embrace bulllying as the central societal ethic. As a result you will not just have "Bullies" acting in an arbitrary and unfettered way against individuals, but counter societies of non-bullies acting for mutual protection - based on geographic, religious, or philosophical alliances -- in other words, the rules of society will change, but Society will still exist, and each society, however composed, will act to protect itself from the encroachment of another or be destroyed. It will be "barbarians" against the "civilized" - and we see these divisions already in evidence (OWS and Tea Party) The groups that survive long-term will have to be expansionist- either via conquest, or assimilation. Both types will probably be forced to be ruthless in the application of the in-group laws and morals. Hence an individual family NOT part of an initial group will have three choices: Join an exisiting societal group (as mercenary, slave, or freeman), form a societal group of their own, or try to stay unaligned and eventually fall prey to superior numbers.
The measures discussed for protecting the Prep are probably helpful , and good to practice no matter what sort of society you find yourself in. However, this has been my central worry thorughout the prep. My TEOTWAKI place is Obvious to everyone within the geographic community. My Solar installation is Obvious. My Greenhouse is Obvious. I can be easily identified as a potential target by anyone living in or visiting my neighborhood. In a "my family against the world" scenario, we ultimately loose. My bets are placed on my neighborhood's ultimate society being "Civilized" and not "Barbarian/Bully" in nature. If it becomes the latter, I do plan to implement spoilsport measures that promise to minimize the possible gain and make those who kill me and mine pay a high price for doing so.