Author Topic: Brainstorming the Worst Case  (Read 4226 times)

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Offline Weisshaupt

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Brainstorming the Worst Case
« on: December 18, 2011, 08:52:13 PM »
MichelleO dug this article up over at earthineer (interesting comments there too) - This  article rings true to me  in some places, but it many ways its seems too simplistic to me.  The article has some interesting coping strategies, and other useful info, but I am wondering what others here think of it.

My thoughts below:

1) Contrary to the article's assertions, I think long term Total Societal Collapse is very, very rare in History. Even the examples cited in the article as evidence were quite local and temporary in scope, where-as a long duration/total production stoppage/Mad Max Bullies  scenario is the focus of the article. Events like Weimar and Argentina are probably going to be more the model for what we are facing - Society continues - just under a different set of rules of interaction that include more violence and death, but which DO NOT  make violence and death the main characteristic of the new realm. Even in the Mad Max scenario, the Bullies form a "society" - complete with pecking order. It is NOT every man for himself, because those who choose that course WILL DIE facing overwheming numbers.

2) The article asserts Bullies (of any sort - Government,  Private, or Socialist) are Smart, but that they would come back for 3-6 searches of your home.  I suspect maybe two. Once for Food and inventory , a second for anything else. Three at the most.. The first under a humanitarian guise, by the  third as as open violence.  The article's time-table suggests the last things bullies would come for is men and women to work  but if the bullies are so smart, they know sustainability is going to require getting some production going again, and they will know it day one and act accordingly

3) The 2 or 3 search time-table is further reinforced by the idea of riots. The article suggests churches and other charities will experience mob violence under suspicions of hoarding, but the article neglects to mention that any bullies collecting under "humanitarian"  cover will experience the same fate. Once the riots start, the Bullies in charge will be forced to either surrender their ill-gotten stores or they will be forced to kill the rioters to prevent it. Either way, the intentions of the bullies are revealed, and further searches after the event are going to be met with armed resistence.

4) The article seems to assume no communication within existing organizations -PTA, Clubs, Work places, Churches, and even police forces, fire forces, local governments etc may act  to spread news or to resist the bullies anywhere these organizations do not become agencies of the bullies themselves. These organizations will become lifelines of information and mills of rumor. Where people within these organizations are of similar enough mind, they will begin to act in concert.  People will be ill at ease and be keeping an ear to the ground for ANY news. Sorting truth from rumor will be difficult, and most will be forced to assume the worst, but if there are groups collecting food, weapons, fuel, tools, and slaves, word is going to get around and those capable of resistance will organize and engage. Ties in rural communities tend to be stronger - there are fewer people to know, outsiders are more easily recognized by sight, and circumstances have already forced many to work together to survive a bad storm, a drought, etc. Need an example? The Mormon Church and Utah.  They are welll known preppers, and as such will be immediate targets. The folks  in Utah bough twice as many guns this year as last year, and I suspect this is because the Church itself has assied orders to prepare.  2nd example? Glenn Becks 9/12 movement - many of those local groups have begun to prep together - even though no one intended that outcome.

5) America has the most heavily armed/high tech and educated population in the history of the world - what has happened before may not happen here because the situation is entirely different- especially given our cultural legacy. This will lead many segments of our population to resist long before other populations in the past have realized they must. The article suggests that the "humanitarians" will come and confiscate weapons except for a pistol or a bolt action rifle. In a true SHTF survival scenario, an American raised on our heritage WILL NOT  meekly give up those weapons. How many houses can a 20 Man squad hit before a self-styled militia meets and ambushes  them? How many homes can they invade loosing even a single man at each location?

6) The forces that cause Bullies to band together for mutal protection and gain also exist for those who don't embrace bulllying as the central societal ethic. As a result you will not just have "Bullies" acting in an arbitrary and unfettered  way against individuals,  but counter societies of non-bullies acting for mutual protection - based on geographic, religious, or philosophical alliances -- in other words, the rules of society will change, but Society will still exist, and each society, however composed, will act to protect itself from the encroachment of another or be destroyed. It will be "barbarians" against the "civilized" - and we see these divisions already in evidence (OWS and Tea Party) The groups that survive long-term  will have to be expansionist- either via conquest, or assimilation. Both types will probably be forced to be ruthless in the application of the in-group laws and morals.  Hence an individual family NOT part of an initial group will  have three choices: Join an exisiting societal  group (as mercenary, slave, or freeman), form a societal  group of their own, or try to stay unaligned and eventually fall prey to superior numbers.

The measures discussed for protecting the Prep are probably helpful , and good to practice no matter what sort of society you find yourself in.  However, this has been my central worry thorughout the prep.  My TEOTWAKI place is Obvious to everyone within the geographic  community. My Solar installation is Obvious. My Greenhouse is Obvious.  I can be easily identified as a potential target by anyone living in or visiting my neighborhood.  In a "my family against the world" scenario, we ultimately loose.  My bets are placed on my neighborhood's ultimate society being "Civilized" and not "Barbarian/Bully" in nature.  If it becomes the latter, I do plan to implement spoilsport measures that promise to minimize the possible gain and make those who kill me and mine pay a high price for doing so.

charlesoakwood

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2011, 09:48:09 PM »

Your thoughts parallel many things written and elaborated on in:
 [blockquote]
The Great Reckoning: Protecting Yourself in the Coming Depression
James Dale Davidson with Lord William Rees Mogg
 
   Buy Now On Amazon
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0330327925/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=allegracorpco-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0330327925
ISBN: 0330327925  ASIN: 0330327925
[/blockquote]

The book was marketed as an investment book (bad) but the lasting insight provided  into the devolution of society was thoughtful.  It's not worth $25.00 but if you can find it on the cheap or at the library, it's worth the read (skip to the salient chapters). Now, having relieved myself of that thought it's on to your link.



charlesoakwood

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2011, 10:29:18 PM »

The author illustrates extreme societal breakdown with; the early 20th century Spanish flu epidemic and the South during the last year of the civil war, which to my knowledge that although creating great stress caused no societal breakdown.  Then he dwells on, [catastrophic?] societal breakdown by  the killing of men, women and children (in extremis).  His enthusiasm exceeds his capacity.

I agree with you, society will not stop it will change.  Whether we are situated to take advantage of the change or are taken advantage of is our dilemma, the former being our goal.

During the upcoming societal change those who are better prepared, *which importantly includes where you live and who your neighbors are, will fare better.  If we do good this change will be an active capitalist creative destruction evolving to a stronger Republic.

*see post 1

Offline Libertas

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2011, 07:04:04 AM »
I think Weisshaupt's take is pretty spot on.  I think the biggest challenge will be seeing how your neighbors and others in the community you choose to be in when the SHTF react.  Will they be allies, opportunists, chameleons, narcs, enemies of whatever stripe...what?  While I agree that a long-term societal breakdown is not statistically likely when you look at the broad sweep of history...baring an extreme ecological event (asteroid impact, ice age "Act of God" things) the only other thing I can see being up to the task is economic meltdown.  And I cannot recall a point in history where economies were so intertwined and mutually dependent...just about every nation is racking up big debt or big IOU's...if someone decides the fantasy is over, the whole system could unravel and plunge the globe into a new dark age.  This dark age may take more than one generation to recover from.  Is that short term?  To the millions of dead, starving and destitute humans it may not seem so short term.  I put the odds no better than 50-50 simply because the weaknesses in the system - economically, politically and societal are so volatile.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2011, 12:16:46 PM »
I think Weisshaupt's take is pretty spot on.  I think the biggest challenge will be seeing how your neighbors and others in the community you choose to be in when the SHTF react.  Will they be allies, opportunists, chameleons, narcs, enemies of whatever stripe...what?  While I agree that a long-term societal breakdown is not statistically likely when you look at the broad sweep of history...baring an extreme ecological event (asteroid impact, ice age "Act of God" things) the only other thing I can see being up to the task is economic meltdown.  And I cannot recall a point in history where economies were so intertwined and mutually dependent...just about every nation is racking up big debt or big IOU's...if someone decides the fantasy is over, the whole system could unravel and plunge the globe into a new dark age.  This dark age may take more than one generation to recover from.  Is that short term?  To the millions of dead, starving and destitute humans it may not seem so short term.  I put the odds no better than 50-50 simply because the weaknesses in the system - economically, politically and societal are so volatile.

Oh, it will be bad, but I think it is still  unlikely  we will get to the "entire old socetial system is washed away" ,  scenario discussed in the article and my responses.  I see most of the current insititutions remaining, but changing their focus and roles.  You will still have police, fire, town, county, and perhaps state  governments (though many of those are as bankrupt as the Fed) . Economic meltdown doesn't seem to engender societal meltdown.  It didn't in Wiemar, it didn't in Argentina, it didn't in Zimbabwe.  I think it happens slowly enough there isn't a "my immediate and future survival requires me killing all of my neighbors" response.  Crime goes up, law enforcement goes down, personal responsibily and self-reliance  and protection alliances  become the new norm, and the Standard of living drops to near poverty level for almost everyone. 

The fish rots from the head, and as the Fed goes bankrupt and the dollar collapses, that gives them less power and control - not more.  The  Fed may not be able to hold an army together for lack of money with which to pay them -- though 3 squares a day  confiscated from citizens by force may work if things are that bad. Again it always comes back to how many police and army units  will be willing to become barbarians vs. standing with Citizens on Constitutional grounds. I think its quite possible the Fed may try to play it all down, and avoid abuses and imposition of Martial law- and try more of the extend and pretend  (new dollars, currency revaluation, tarrfis etc) until they just become irrelevant... especially if some States start priting/minting competing currencies, ousting and dearming Federal Agencies,  etc.  The other alternative is that the Fed attempts to maintain control by implementing Martial law.  We are the only country with a heritage that proclaims " a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security."  As a result, we may be the first place in history where citizens will see it as a duty to resist any organization that tries to become a "bully", and will be well enough armed to make an attempt. Not to mention that many are expecting it at this point,and  not only preparing physcially, but mentally - watching close for that point where the  "long train of abuses" is evident enough to even the sheep, such  that they can use to justify their rebellion.

If the Fed does make an attempt at Marital law, gun confiscation, food inventory and collection,etc ,  folks will likely  turn to exisiting structures as backup. The character of those local organizations then becomes the focus.   In urban areas, I would expect local governments to go along with the Fed, and  make an attempt at bullying  and they will probably get compliance from the remaining terrified sheep who live there.  In rural areas ( where the food is produced)  I see county and city governments moving to barricade highways, and citizen militias that move to prevent farm and livestock looting and urban gang attacks. Certain states ( Wyoming, Texas, Utah, Idaho)  may well decide to leave the union- especailly if the Fed  tried to implement martial law and confiscation of supplies.   Military and police loyal to the Constitution will most likely take their weapons and move to those states to defend or lead resistance cells in thier areas, while the Fed mobilizes what forces are loyal to them to bring those wayward states back in and bring rural areas back undercontrol.  Real battle lines will then be drawn. The Fed will then be showing its true colors, become openly fascisitic and brutal in areas under its control, and wil probably  be harrassed and attacked on every side by loyal Americans caught behind enemy lines.  The biggest danger is that the Fed asks Russia, China, and other Socialist totalitarian powers for "help" in quelling our rebellion. 

I keep asking my liberal "friends" - If you wanted  " to live and let live" why would you vote vote for people what are going to use government power to dictate and force people to live like you think they should?  If you didn't want a civil war, why did you vote to start one? Or did you think people like me would quietly accept your bullying  intrusion by proxy  into my personal affairs and violation of my rights, and not realize it was people like you that hired the Chicago Ghetto thug to harrass us?   
 

Online Pandora

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2011, 12:27:20 PM »
Quote
I keep asking my liberal "friends" ......

Very curious; what do they say?
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

"Let us assume for the moment everything you say about me is true. That just makes your problem bigger, doesn't it?"

Offline Libertas

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2011, 12:27:45 PM »
Playing prognosticator of Armageddon is rife with too many variables to count, I think some elements will be more or less of a surprise than others, and vary in volume from person to person, but no doubt there will be surprises.  But I like to stretch my mind and contemplate all of the possibilities, never a wasted exercise.  The good mind is the prepared mind.

Ohh, I can imagine the range of responses to your last question!

 ::thumbsup::
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2011, 01:05:15 PM »
 But I like to stretch my mind and contemplate all of the possibilities, never a wasted exercise.

Well.. go for it.  I laid my view out, but like the article in  my original post - there are probably effects that I should be accouting for, but I am not. Tell me where you think I have it wrong. If you think the total breakdown scenario is more likely, tell me why.  As you said,  predicting the course of events is near impossible,  but I have done this sort of an excercise in an business envrionment - and most of our groups guesses about the future trends were in fact correct- and I would NEVER have arrived at those prediction on my own- the interaction of the group is really required because each person has blind spots that prevent them from seeing what is obvious to others.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2011, 01:06:59 PM »
Quote
I keep asking my liberal "friends" ......

Very curious; what do they say?
The universal Liberal answer: Nothing.  No liberal will ever respond to the point.  If I tell thm that in an email exchange- they simply NEVER respond.  Tell them that in person and they start talking about the mating habits of Purple Rhinos in Unicorn land.  Anything but what I just said.

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2011, 01:39:37 PM »
Quote
I keep asking my liberal "friends" ......

Very curious; what do they say?
The universal Liberal answer: Nothing.  No liberal will ever respond to the point.  If I tell thm that in an email exchange- they simply NEVER respond.  Tell them that in person and they start talking about the mating habits of Purple Rhinos in Unicorn land.  Anything but what I just said.


I am not ... let's just say 'appreciated' ... by the Lefties on my local forum.  Or the moderates.  Too "extremist", which in other terms means fact presented harshly and bluntly.  I present my opinions in the same manner; I'm done with playing.  I explain this because of their love of "government" -- but only for their special issues, and that wouldn't include protecting marriage -- and when I described, for instance, local "government" as nothing more than their neighbors elected to authority to use guns on them, so, please now picture "me" as that "elected authority", there was >crickets<.   I expected a roar of horror, but there was not one reaction.

I apparently stunned them into horrified silence.
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

"Let us assume for the moment everything you say about me is true. That just makes your problem bigger, doesn't it?"

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2011, 02:28:43 PM »
I apparently stunned them into horrified silence.

No.  Thats probably giving them too much credit. They have devolved into animals.  A herd of Sheep simply  ignores  anything they don't understand, and Freedom and limits on power is simply nothing something they can comprehend.  To them the logic is simple : of course government wields unlimted power. If it didn't who would guide us, keep us safe, and think for us?  4 Legs good. 2 Legs Bad is the extent of the reasoning power they can apply.  They not only WANT a sheep dog, they need one. They can't imagine existence without one there, and the Sheep really aren't smart enough to tell the difference between a wolf and a dog, or perhaps even notice a difference.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2011, 02:56:12 PM »
Meanwhile Wisconsin has more CC permit apps than they can process and the government is apparently trying to man the "FEMA" camps.

Mind, I don't think this indicate they are getting ready for box cars and ovens-- just that those in power see what we see, expect unrest, and expect to need camps for internment of rioters and or refugees ( can't have Tent cities making Obama look bad)

So yes, it they could be setting this up for nefarious purposes, but I stand by my reasoning that if extermination/depopulation was the goal, they wouldn't be that picky about who died, and they would use WMD (nukes, biological or Chemical)  to achieve that end without trying to do a dangerous round up of millions of Americans.  And Yeah, even if there are only 10% willing to support a revolution and only 3% wiling to fight it, and only 1% willing and capable, you would still be trying to round up 1 million to 30 million people. They just can't do that easily - you just can't surprise 1 million people in their sleep. Once its obvious people are being taken, I would expect that even if alon, you are going to start to experience deadly force in your efforts.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 04:08:49 PM by Weisshaupt »

Online Pandora

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2011, 03:23:53 PM »
That's a KBR doc, otherwise known as Halliburton.  Any idea of the release date of it?
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

"Let us assume for the moment everything you say about me is true. That just makes your problem bigger, doesn't it?"

Offline Alphabet Soup

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2011, 03:55:31 PM »
Well that tears it! I refuse to be sent to the same reeducation camp as the damned kalifornians!  ::outrage::

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2011, 03:57:51 PM »
That's a KBR doc, otherwise known as Halliburton.  Any idea of the release date of it?

It came from Alex Jones on Dec 6th, so you are now entering offical NWO conspiracy theory territory.  But as MichelleO just reminded me, we are all "Alex Jones" now. I just spent a fortune on buying and equipping a Teotwaki cabin.  


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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2011, 04:10:43 PM »
That's a KBR doc, otherwise known as Halliburton.  Any idea of the release date of it?

It came from Alex Jones on Dec 6th, so you are now entering offical NWO conspiracy theory territory.  But as MichelleO just reminded me, we are all "Alex Jones" now. I just spent a fortune on buying and equipping a Teotwaki cabin.  



Just a matter of degree at this point, I say.

That Jones  ::foilhathelicopter::  is the source does not diminish the facts contained in the doc, so the Feds are preparing for something.  And I don't believe I'm entering the  ::foilhathelicopter:: zone when I say whatever it is, it can't be good for us.  They'll get me in a Fema camp over my dead body, and I am sure they'll have no problem with that.

"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

"Let us assume for the moment everything you say about me is true. That just makes your problem bigger, doesn't it?"

Offline Alphabet Soup

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2011, 07:51:30 PM »
Quote
They'll get me in a Fema camp over my dead body, and I am sure they'll have no problem with that.

...and I estimate my kill ratio a between 15-20:1  :supercool:

Offline Libertas

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2011, 07:12:46 AM »
 But I like to stretch my mind and contemplate all of the possibilities, never a wasted exercise.

Well.. go for it.  I laid my view out, but like the article in  my original post - there are probably effects that I should be accouting for, but I am not. Tell me where you think I have it wrong. If you think the total breakdown scenario is more likely, tell me why.  As you said,  predicting the course of events is near impossible,  but I have done this sort of an excercise in an business envrionment - and most of our groups guesses about the future trends were in fact correct- and I would NEVER have arrived at those prediction on my own- the interaction of the group is really required because each person has blind spots that prevent them from seeing what is obvious to others.

Ufda, where to begin?!  Try to put things into compartments and analyze them in isolation, then put them all in the same pot and see what can be pieced together...haven't done that in a long while.  I may have to devote some considerable time to this.  Unfortunately right now I am gearing up for year end at work and with my side business.  Cutting to the chase it is hard to say if economic conditions will lead to societal and political breakdown first, but that is my bias at this point.  Our politics has gotten dumbed down, to the point where commons terms are meaningless due to the saturation of hyperbole on the left given a free ride in the MFM and the slightest of misstatements getting elevated to be on par with child molestation for the right.  But the steady march into tyranny the Left has given is, the media has fostered and popular culture has cheered means the deck is stacked, making societal change near impossible and often times ridiculed and marginalized.  Now the three legged beast walks as one.  But trying to guess which one will step on us first and how bad it will be may be moot.  As we know, no cirsis goes wasted, if the economy hits the fan hard enough, great and powerful government will come to the rescue.  That the rescue takes the form of tyranny should be of no concern to the average citizen, because these measures are "for their own good".  I think without a sufficiently horrific calamity it will be hard for the government to go from A to Z.  The slow route we have been taking (largely since FDR) will get you there eventually, but a crisis will expedite the process to instantaneous.  The thing with the economy though is one of those things that can elude even a tyrannical governments ability to control.  We are on as unsustainable a course economically as I have seen anywhere in history and if I had to throw a guess out there I'd say we could be facing a period where economic conditions help precipitate a civil war fractured on many fronts...the federal government trying to hold as much together as they can, local governments that happen to survive creating enclaves, rural areas banding together provide common defense, and overlaid all over that a patchwork grid of religious and political divisions ads well as each area having to contend with roving bands of anarchists and other sundry pirates.  Where the regular military falls and the guard units to me is the biggest wildcard, along with potential foreign interlopers (providing they are intact and not torn apart by the same economic calamity).  This period could last several years until one or more power groups emerge to create any kind of stability again, and millions will be left dead, diseased and dying when all is said and done.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Libertas

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2011, 07:13:41 AM »
Quote
They'll get me in a Fema camp over my dead body, and I am sure they'll have no problem with that.

...and I estimate my kill ratio a between 15-20:1  :supercool:

 ::thumbsup::
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline AlanS

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Re: Brainstorming the Worst Case
« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2011, 12:56:42 PM »
Quote
They'll get me in a Fema camp over my dead body, and I am sure they'll have no problem with that.

...and I estimate my kill ratio a between 15-20:1  :supercool:

My mindset also. What worries me is some of the tactics used by the Federal Bureau of Incineration.
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