Topic: Newt wins So. Carolina primary

[Pandora]

Reported by ABC News (I know, ::snort::  )

[charlesoakwood]

Fox also.

Is Santorum going to drop and throw his votes to Newt?

[Pandora]

Fox also.

Is Santorum going to drop and throw his votes to Newt?

I can't say -- not a good political prognosticator -- but I hope not.

What do you think?

[charlesoakwood]

You would rather Romney get the nomination?
It is highly doubtful Ronmey can win in the nationals.
With Newt we have a 50/50 chance the gNewt will
put the Republic on the road to recovery.

The evangelical problem is over.
After the evangelicals deserted Perry
(unfaithful witches) they have rendered
themselves neuter.

[John Florida]

Fox also.

Is Santorum going to drop and throw his votes to Newt?

  I said he would drop out and give it to Newt and I still hold to that.

[John Florida]

You would rather Romney get the nomination?
It is highly doubtful Ronmey can win in the nationals.
With Newt we have a 50/50 chance the gNewt will
put the Republic on the road to recovery.

The evangelical problem is over.
After the evangelicals deserted Perry
(unfaithful witches) they have rendered
themselves neuter.

 They got Neutered themselves when they went for McCain. So the choice for them is a lot clearer than it was last time. Now watch the numbers in Florida shift to Gnewt.

[charlesoakwood]

They remained a force within their community after McCain.
This time early on they gathered together and picked Perry
and when Perry stumbled the skittered, flocked together
again and repicked.  To their followers and to themselves
they were weak and unfaithful.  It will take a generation of
work for them to rebuild respect.

They have become one more institution illustrative of why
we are losing America.

[Pandora]

You would rather Romney get the nomination?
It is highly doubtful Ronmey can win in the nationals.
With Newt we have a 50/50 chance the gNewt will
put the Republic on the road to recovery.

The evangelical problem is over.
After the evangelicals deserted Perry
(unfaithful witches) they have rendered
themselves neuter.

Why would you write that?  Contrary, I believe I've come out full against Romney.

I believe every State's citizens should get to vote among the full slate is all.  By the time we in NC get to vote, the candidate has all but been decided.

[charlesoakwood]

...

Why would you write that?  Contrary, I believe I've come out full against Romney.

I believe every State's citizens should get to vote among the full slate is all.  By the time we in NC get to vote, the candidate has all but been decided.

In response to: "Is Santorum going to drop and throw his votes to Newt?", you said,
"I can't say -- not a good political prognosticator -- but I hope not."

That sounded weak toward Newt.  I'm more interested in winning the national that a pure democratic [primary]sic election.  For that kind of purity we need Bachmann and Perry still in also.
We are at the crossroads, it's cutting time and it's Santorum's time to go gracefully and endorse a Republican who can win the election and a man who is not Mitt.

It's time for Santorum to quit and he should give his endorsement to the gNewt.
He may not do what we want be he will not bend over.

 

[John Florida]

...

Why would you write that?  Contrary, I believe I've come out full against Romney.

I believe every State's citizens should get to vote among the full slate is all.  By the time we in NC get to vote, the candidate has all but been decided.

In response to: "Is Santorum going to drop and throw his votes to Newt?", you said,
"I can't say -- not a good political prognosticator -- but I hope not."

That sounded weak toward Newt.  I'm more interested in winning the national that a pure democratic [primary]sic election.  For that kind of purity we need Bachmann and Perry still in also.
We are at the crossroads, it's cutting time and it's Santorum's time to go gracefully and endorse a Republican who can win the election and a man who is not Mitt.

It's time for Santorum to quit and he should give his endorsement to the gNewt.
He may not do what we want be he will not bend over.

 

 He can't back Romey and he won't back Paul so the choice is clear.

[AmericanPatriot]

So, no conservative small government types left.
Except Paul who isn't a conservative but is definitely smaller government

I'm tickled as a pig in s**t

I refuse them all

[IronDioPriest]

So, no conservative small government types left.
Except Paul who isn't a conservative but is definitely smaller government

I'm tickled as a pig in s**t

I refuse them all

I hear ya brotha.

[trapeze]

The race came out pretty much as I thought it would. That is, how I thought it would as of Thursday evening.

Interesting how Romney was polling in the lead position only about a week ago. Why? Was it the media's hit job on his taxes, his tenure at Bain Capital, his speaking fees, his Cayman Islands bank account, etc.? Or was it Newt's impressive media assault in the two SC debates? Probably both. Both, in that without Newt's debate performance I think that he would have only beaten Romney by 5 points instead of double digits plus.

It's amazing sometimes how fast things change.

The media (ABC specifically) was plotting the aftermath of a single digit Gingrich victory with the Monday bombshell interview release featuring his chronically over the top bitter ex-wife. But then Drudge spiked that plan by leaking the existence of the interview and further teasing that ABC execs were debating as to when to release it. And Gingrich turned the entire situation to his advantage after the premature release. So now...ABC has nothing in its arsenal to blunt the impressive Gingrich victory next week in the lead up to FLorida. Romney is the strong favorite in Florida but that was also his situation in SC until this week. So who knows now about Florida.

Santorum is finishing SC with a strong third place finish. The outcome between Santorum and Paul was the only situation I was unsure of as of this morning. I was pretty sure that they would be separated by three or four points but I really had no idea (given the volatility and enthusiasm of Paul supporters) who would come out on top. I had hoped that it would be Santorum, of course. When I say that Santorum is looking at a strong third place finish I don't mean in relation to Paul but rather in relation to Romney. Obviously things can change but as I write this about 60% of precincts have reported and Romney is short of a double digit lead over Santorum. I also turned out to be slightly wrong about the difference between Santorum and Paul as it is looking like a 5 point spread instead of 3 or 4.

Florida is going to be very tough for Santorum to compete in due to the geographical facts of life. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are basically single media markets where it is possible to cover the entire state from one city. Those early states tend to, therefore, lend themselves to the old fashioned "retail" politicking of pressing the flesh, kissing babies, pancake breakfasts and stump speeches. Florida has, I don't know, maybe a half a dozen or more distinct media markets and requires a much more sophisticated and organized approach. In other words, it requires money and a lot of it. Romney has money, Gingrich has money (and more coming in after SC), Paul can seemingly raise money from his nut base seemingly at a moment's notice but Santorum...not so much.

The Iowa Republican establishment deserves all of the credit for torpedoing the Santorum campaign. Santorum won Iowa and the establishment was able to suppress that fact prior to NH and right up until a day or two (depending on how you count it) before the SC primary. That purposeful deception all but killed off Santorum's rightful early momentum and prevented him from raising the kind of campaign money needed to be competitive in NH and SC...a reverse snowball effect that will culminate in an even bigger "also ran" finish in Florida. Short of a miracle (and they do happen...ask Gingrich) Santorum will be forced out after Florida if not before.

Paul will soldier on to the very end just like Hillary did four years ago against Obongo. There is a disturbing rumor going around that a lot of delegates who are going to be pledged to Romney are, in fact, Paul supporters. This means that if there is a brokered convention they will be free to support Paul after the first vote. That is, regardless of who you support, reason enough to settle this damn thing early and assure that Romney, Gingrich or Santorum has enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

The stakes have never been higher and the craziness has never been more intense.

[IronDioPriest]

...The Iowa Republican establishment deserves all of the credit for torpedoing the Santorum campaign. Santorum won Iowa and the establishment was able to suppress that fact prior to NH and right up until a day or two (depending on how you count it) before the SC primary. That purposeful deception all but killed off Santorum's rightful early momentum and prevented him from raising the kind of campaign money needed to be competitive in NH and SC...a reverse snowball effect that will culminate in an even bigger "also ran" finish in Florida...

I tend to see it that way too Trap. I don't want to come right out and say that it was purposeful without evidence, but is sure stinks that way. The "8 votes behind" mantra was enough to keep Santorum from the benefits of a clear victory, and the weak "Santorum was actually ahead by 34 but we're going to call it a virtual tie because some precincts are missing" BS makes it appear that they were doing whatever they could to blunt his victory once it became apparent.

[AmericanPatriot]

This means that if there is a brokered convention they will be free to support Paul after the first vote. That is, regardless of who you support, reason enough to settle this damn thing early and assure that Romney, Gingrich or Santorum has enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot

.

Sorry,Trap, but completely disagree.
Even if it went brokered, Paul would still never have enough for the nomination.

I want every last one of them bloody, battered and shown to be unacceptable with the hope that a real conservative can come out of this
If it splits the party, it's needed done for a while now

[John Florida]

...The Iowa Republican establishment deserves all of the credit for torpedoing the Santorum campaign. Santorum won Iowa and the establishment was able to suppress that fact prior to NH and right up until a day or two (depending on how you count it) before the SC primary. That purposeful deception all but killed off Santorum's rightful early momentum and prevented him from raising the kind of campaign money needed to be competitive in NH and SC...a reverse snowball effect that will culminate in an even bigger "also ran" finish in Florida...

I tend to see it that way too Trap. I don't want to come right out and say that it was purposeful without evidence, but is sure stinks that way. The "8 votes behind" mantra was enough to keep Santorum from the benefits of a clear victory, and the weak "Santorum was actually ahead by 34 but we're going to call it a virtual tie because some precincts are missing" BS makes it appear that they were doing whatever they could to blunt his victory once it became apparent.

 Newt winning was not what they expected to happen but now the elites have to deal with him a little longer unless he wins Florida and then they're gonna have to kiss his azz.I counting Santorum gone after Florida

[trapeze]

So...just why did Gingrich finish so strongly in SC and why might he also have a similar (if perhaps not so overwhelming) finish in Florida?

I think that most of Gingrich's success with the voters has mostly to do with his willingness (some might say "eagerness") to take on the media.

First of all I think that the voters are consciously and subconsciously substituting the media as a sort of Obongo-by-proxy. Sure, there will be plenty of Obongo bashing opportunities in the general election campaign but this is, for all intents and purposes, the warm up for the main event. I believe that the voters are mentally substituting the media for Obongo and (hopefully) rightfully think that Gingrich will show as much eagerness to attack the president when the opportunity is right. Romney, by comparison, is seen as meek and timid for not only ignoring the obnoxiousness of the press but for refusing to criticize Obongo. Romney has repeatedly refused to call Obongo a socialist and said that he believes that the president is just wrong...rather than designate his motives as nefarious.

Secondly...and no less importantly...I believe that most of the voters detest the press as much or more than they despise politicians and lawyers (but I repeat myself). I believe that most of the voters have been waiting for, longing for someone to come along who would give the press the thrashing that they so richly deserve. To say the things that almost all of us have harbored deep within our hearts about the condescending liberal media. Watching Gingrich mop the floor with the various empty headed morons who anchor for the news outlets is wish fulfillment on a grand scale. It's virtually impossible to not cheer him on.

This technique might be copied by Romney and Santorum but (and especially in the case of Romney) I doubt it. Romney doesn't have it in him and I don't think that Santorum is capable of it either. Neither one of them have Gingrich's history with the media. Gingrich was skewered mercilessly during his time as Speaker of the House and he has had many years to think on his revenge. And now he is able to smack one after another out of the park with the added benefit of giving the very visual appearance of relishing the opportunity.

And the funny thing is that (if the stories may be believed) Gingrich is actually quite chummy with the press off the record. They treat him warmly and respectfully off camera but, unlike his predecessors, he knows that it is their job to destroy him when the lights go up. Unlike his predecessors he isn't fooled into believing that the press will treat him nicely if only he sucks up to them enough. Unlike, say McCain, Gingrich is perfectly willing to use the press to his own advantage...turning the tables on them gleefully. The voters are seeing this and (for now anyway) are rewarding it.

[trapeze]

This means that if there is a brokered convention they will be free to support Paul after the first vote. That is, regardless of who you support, reason enough to settle this damn thing early and assure that Romney, Gingrich or Santorum has enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot

.

Sorry,Trap, but completely disagree.
Even if it went brokered, Paul would still never have enough for the nomination.

I want every last one of them bloody, battered and shown to be unacceptable with the hope that a real conservative can come out of this
If it splits the party, it's needed done for a while now

Yes, but the only type of candidate who can emerge from a brokered convention (short of a Paul ambush) is a thoroughly establishment type. Think Jeb Bush, for instance.

I am not willing to exchange the devils we know for those we don't.

[trapeze]

...The Iowa Republican establishment deserves all of the credit for torpedoing the Santorum campaign. Santorum won Iowa and the establishment was able to suppress that fact prior to NH and right up until a day or two (depending on how you count it) before the SC primary. That purposeful deception all but killed off Santorum's rightful early momentum and prevented him from raising the kind of campaign money needed to be competitive in NH and SC...a reverse snowball effect that will culminate in an even bigger "also ran" finish in Florida...

I tend to see it that way too Trap. I don't want to come right out and say that it was purposeful without evidence, but is sure stinks that way. The "8 votes behind" mantra was enough to keep Santorum from the benefits of a clear victory, and the weak "Santorum was actually ahead by 34 but we're going to call it a virtual tie because some precincts are missing" BS makes it appear that they were doing whatever they could to blunt his victory once it became apparent.

If there was any justice in the universe and Republican party administration this would be the last time that Iowa got their first in the nation voting privilege. They clearly do not deserve it after this fiasco.

[John Florida]

This means that if there is a brokered convention they will be free to support Paul after the first vote. That is, regardless of who you support, reason enough to settle this damn thing early and assure that Romney, Gingrich or Santorum has enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot

.

Sorry,Trap, but completely disagree.
Even if it went brokered, Paul would still never have enough for the nomination.

I want every last one of them bloody, battered and shown to be unacceptable with the hope that a real conservative can come out of this
If it splits the party, it's needed done for a while now

Yes, but the only type of candidate who can emerge from a brokered convention (short of a Paul ambush) is a thoroughly establishment type. Think Jeb Bush, for instance.

I am not willing to exchange the devils we know for those we don't.