Author Topic: Next Big Flu Scare?  (Read 1262 times)

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Offline Libertas

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Online Pandora

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Re: Next Big Flu Scare?
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2012, 10:05:19 AM »
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The days of medical masks at airports and widespread panic may be coming back—that's because at least 12 humans are believed to have been infected with a new strain of swine flu that's not covered by this season's vaccine.

::Boggle::

A new season's vaccine was whipped up without knowing what flu strains would be circulating, obviously.  How does that work?
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Offline Libertas

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Re: Next Big Flu Scare?
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2012, 11:09:44 AM »
It's always that way...they guess what strains will be likely.  And the overblown fears of epidemic are always that way too, because as we all should know, only Big Govenment can save us from any virus!

 ::facepalm::
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Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Next Big Flu Scare?
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2012, 11:19:40 AM »
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The days of medical masks at airports and widespread panic may be coming back—that's because at least 12 humans are believed to have been infected with a new strain of swine flu that's not covered by this season's vaccine.

::Boggle::

A new season's vaccine was whipped up without knowing what flu strains would be circulating, obviously.  How does that work?

My understanding is that they make a best guess at what will be the big flu strain in a given year, and then make up a vaccine for it.  

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What is meant by a “good match” between viruses in the vaccine and circulating influenza viruses?

A good match is said to occur when the viruses in the vaccine and the viruses circulating among people during a given influenza season are closely related and the antibodies produced by the vaccine are able to provide protection against infection.

Past studies have shown that in years when the vaccine viruses and circulating viruses are well-matched, the vaccine can reduce the chances of getting the influenza by 70%-90% in healthy adults.

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A “mismatch” is said to occur when the viruses in the vaccine are significantly different from those circulating in the community. In years when the vaccine strains are not well matched to circulating strains, vaccine effectiveness can be reduced. However, even when the viruses in the vaccine and circulating viruses are not well matched, a vaccine may still offer some protection against circulating viruses.

For example, in a study among persons 50-64 years of age during the 2003-04 influenza season, when the vaccine strains were not optimally matched, inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza was 60% among persons without high-risk conditions, and 48% among those with high risk conditions. However, vaccine effectiveness was 90% against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization (Herrera, et al Vaccine 2006). A study in children during the same year found vaccine effectiveness of about 50% against medically diagnosed influenza and pneumonia without laboratory confirmation (Ritzwoller, Pediatrics 2005). Still, in some years when vaccine and circulating strains were not well-matched, no vaccine effectiveness may be able to be demonstrated (Bridges, JAMA 2000). It is not possible in advance of the influenza season to predict how well the vaccine and circulating strains will be matched, and how that may affect vaccine effectiveness.

Basically you are probably  better off getting the flu and letting your body figure out how to fight it unless its likely that contracting the disease will kill you due to pre-exsiting conditions (age, other diseases)  - Of course,  if you get a not-well-matched vaccine, your body learns how tofight that AND the strain that makes you sick.  As long as they aren't doing anything nefarious with the shots, I am sure they are "safe" ( as in a vast majoirty of people will feel no ill effects) but they have never been worht my time effort or money.

What bothers me more is the probing behavior we are seeing- like they are trying to get the sheep used to the idea of a mass outbreak, and train them what to do in that circumstance.  Remember that talk of forced innoculations?  Hey lets see what sort of outcry we get from that? They are trying to get a good model of what certain people will do in any given crisis.

Offline Libertas

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Re: Next Big Flu Scare?
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2012, 11:43:44 AM »
Forced flu shots ala Gardasil, eh?  Yeah, another Rubicon better left uncrossed.
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Online Pandora

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Re: Next Big Flu Scare?
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2012, 11:48:28 AM »
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As long as they aren't doing anything nefarious with the shots, I am sure they are "safe" ( as in a vast majoirty of people will feel no ill effects) but they have never been worht my time effort or money.

Which brings to mind your post on the possibility of them killing off a significant portion of the population through germ-warfare.  Where and when (how would we know beforehand) do the vaccines go from "safe" to fatal?

Quote
What bothers me more is the probing behavior we are seeing- like they are trying to get the sheep used to the idea of a mass outbreak, and train them what to do in that circumstance.  Remember that talk of forced innoculations?  Hey lets see what sort of outcry we get from that? They are trying to get a good model of what certain people will do in any given crisis.

They can, as always, KMA.  I've gotten exactly one, and now that I'm immune-compromised, it won't happen again.
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

"Let us assume for the moment everything you say about me is true. That just makes your problem bigger, doesn't it?"

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Next Big Flu Scare?
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2012, 12:57:53 PM »
Forced flu shots ala Gardasil, eh?  Yeah, another Rubicon better left uncrossed.

I am skeptical of the  "Vacciines are dangerous"  thing as it largely seems to be Liberal Kindergarten reasoning - i.e. everything must be 100% safe.
I have no reason to doubt Gardasil treatments have made people sick or resulted in deaths. I suspect you will find there are people who can have life threatening reactions with any drug- including Asprin, just like they can have allergic reactions to various spices, seeds, peanuts, bee stings, etc.

Any vaccine, drug or food COULD potentially kill you, if you are the lucky memeber of some small group of people affected negatively by it.  I had a girlfriend allergic to Cumin seeds, and one night it almos killed her. Does that mean Cumin seeds aren't "safe" and should not be sold?  If you look at food and drug testing it usually done on Men - sometimes the same men who particpate in the last one, and who might have lingering effects.  Women don't participate ( its that evil mysoginist society that spends more money to study diseases in men by using them as lab rats!)  so right there 50% doesn't really get included.  Race can also have an effect on how a drug will react with the body. there is simply too much to know.

Which really is the difference between conservatives and liberals. Conservatives know how much there is to know, and how much isn't known, or is at least suspect, so they are unwilling to give up their own judgement as the final word on if or when they will get a shot. Liberals WANT to be shileded from that knowledge and live in Mr. Roger's Neighborhood, blind to the complexity of life, and having some parental government  look over them.