Topic: Caucus time

[michelleo]

Tonight I'll be caucusing in Colorado.  I could use your help in deciding whether to caucus for Santorum or Paul.
I honestly can't decide who would be better.

Santorum's strengths:
- didn't support individual mandate in Obamacare
- didn't support bailouts
- strong on family values
- strong on defense

Santorum's weaknesses:
- may be too "compassionate conservative" Bush-like big government
- doesn't fully understand the dangers of our entitlement and debt tsunami coming
- may be too focused on abortion and gay issues and not enough on economic dangers
Paul's strengths:
- limited government credentials
- against bailouts
- against individual mandate in Obamacare
- fully understands the extent of our economic peril

Pauls' weaknesses:
- doesn't understand the nature of enemies abroad/won't fully protect the nation from outside threats

I believe the economy and debt issues are the greatest threats to the country right now.  I believe the Euro is about the collapse, Greece will default followed by Spain, Italy, etc.  I think Paul is better equipped to handle economic perils ahead.  I think Santorum may be too much of status quo enabler.  The middle east may explode with Iran persistently rattling its sabers and perceived American weakness.  We are in for some rough times ahead.  Santorum would be better equipped to handle national security perils.

So my decision may come down to which I think is the greater threat: economic collapse or national security; and which any President would be in a position to fix.  I'm not at all sure that there's much Paul could do in the short term to handle a sudden economic collapse if he were President.  But if America is threatened I still have faith that our military would be up to the task of securing our homeland, with the right Commander in Chief.  For that reason, I think I'll be caucusing for Santorum tonight.

I'd love your thoughts before I head out.

[Pandora]

How quick on the uptake do you believe Santorum is?  Meaning, once he gets the straight story on our dire financial straits, do you *think* he'll re-orient his "compassionate conservatism"?  He came out against TARP if I remember correctly, did he not?

If it was I, I'd go for Santorum because I suspect he'll handle the steep economic learning curve well; I believe Ron Paul will not be willing to jettison his long-held belief that the US brings all outside trouble on itself.

[michelleo]

How quick on the uptake do you believe Santorum is?  Meaning, once he gets the straight story on our dire financial straits, do you *think* he'll re-orient his "compassionate conservatism"?  He came out against TARP if I remember correctly, did he not?

If it was I, I'd go for Santorum because I suspect he'll handle the steep economic learning curve well; I believe Ron Paul will not be willing to jettison his long-held belief that the US brings all outside trouble on itself.

Yes, I'd have to agree with you on that.  Thanks for the input.

[Pandora]

You're welcome, Michelleo; good luck.

[IronDioPriest]

Here's where I come down as I consider the exact same conundrum.

Right now, our fiscal insolvency is set to destroy the nation, thus, fiscal matters trump all else. Ron Paul is the obvious choice on fiscal sanity.

But foreign policy defines America's place in the world. Saying we should end the wars is fine. Saying that wars should not be waged without congressional declaration is right and good. But saying we should essentially withdraw militarily from a world in which the communist Chinese, the Russians, and every tin-pot dictator will fill the void - a world where Pakistan and North Korea possess nuclear weapons, and Iran seeks one while chumming up to South American dictators - that is a policy that I cannot support, and it weighs heavily on the scale when comparing the non-conservative transgressions of the other candidates.

We're closer to being crushed by debt than we are by foreign enemies. But I think that withdrawing from the world militarily in the way Ron Paul describes would almost instantly reverse that. The only thing standing in the gap for Western civilization, preventing the proliferation of evil regimes and anti-liberty superpowers, is the implied threat of the United States military. If we withdraw that implied threat from the world as it is, the last thing we'll have to worry about is debt.

That is why my choice is Rick Santorum. Not because Rick Santorum is who I would choose if I had my druthers.

[Libertas]

I'm looking at this -

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/02/rick-santorum-colorado-minnesota-missouri-poll-mitt-romney/1

I heard Santorum was picking up steam in Minnie so I am thinking of joining that wave at mine tonight.  I want the best chance to derail Willard and this seems it for me.  Of course it does not mean anything, delegates are not chosen until spring for attendance at the convention, so the straw poll will be for bragging rights only, but if either Santorum or Gingrich have enough to overcome Romney come convention time perhaps a deal could be struck.  It really is all I have to go on.

According to this Santorum is also closer to Romney in CO, if that helps.

I think Santorum a more conservative candidate who in a head to head with Gingrich would sway me his direction, but Newt is a scrapper and I think a fighter may have a better chance in the general against Obama.  But I'm looking at the whole game here now and not the short-term or looking too far ahead.

[LadyVirginia]

How quick on the uptake do you believe Santorum is?  Meaning, once he gets the straight story on our dire financial straits, do you *think* he'll re-orient his "compassionate conservatism"?  He came out against TARP if I remember correctly, did he not?

If it was I, I'd go for Santorum because I suspect he'll handle the steep economic learning curve well; I believe Ron Paul will not be willing to jettison his long-held belief that the US brings all outside trouble on itself.

I agree.

[charlesoakwood]

From the ABBR/O camp,  Paul hasn't a chance to win the national election, Santorum does.
In fact Santorum stands a better chance to win than Mittens or Paul.

[michelleo]

I'm at the caucus now.  It's chaos here.  A lot more people showed than they expected.  Standing room only.  More under 65 yr olds than 4 yrs ago.

[Libertas]

I just got back from my caucus.

First off, it was my idea to get involved, on that score I lost the vote to be our Chairman by one vote, oh well, no dangling chad's anyway!
 

But I did become a delegate for the convention for the next level, which I wanted to get into.  From there we'll elect to see who goes to the state convention in May.  I was also a "teller" (hand out ballots, collect them and tally them), our Ward voted 86% for Santorum, Paul and Romney were the only other ones who got a vote.  When it came time to draft amendments for consideration for adoption into the party platform one guy had one already drafted from a grassroots organization in the state to declare marriage between a man and a woman.  Another gal was concerned about legislative and juducial encroachments on religious freedom but was having a hard time composing what she wanted, so I drafted a resolution for her to reinforce party principle via 1st Amendment rights.  All these will bubble up to the next levels for consideration etc etc.  A lot of our discussion centered around judicial activism and the courts, erroding rights, reducing spending and regulation and working up the levels to get the right people in place so we can have a better influence on all this.  It was a good group and it was kind of interesting how much and the same page we are.  I am thinking the higher up we go the more difficult that will become.  But it was good to see.

While I am still dubious as to how much time we have to right things, I'll see how long I can ride this pony and see if I can influence who Minnesota pledges its delegates to.  If anything it is a good exercise and gets my butt off this chair doing something different now and then.

I just got a text from a guy in my Ward who has the Precinct Chairman at his home, he said our precinct went 54% for Santorum, so apparently my Ward was more unified than others.

There was one Paul backer there, he didin't declare himself as such, but I am pretty sure I recognized him.  He laid low, I think partly because I think he felt outnumbered by conservatives not likely to be swayed by hysterical rantings, so it was a peaceful gathering.

According to CBS Santorum is getting 45% of MN straw poll so far, and is leading in MO & CO as well, so a good night for Rick.  Newt & Mitt not doing so well, Paul did better in MN than MO or CO, and it appears either Newt isn't on ballot in MO or isn't registering anything.  Not sure what that is about.

Anyway, interesting night and I have a chip in the game.

Links -

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/state.shtml?state=MN

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/state.shtml?state=MO

http://www.cbsnews.com/primary-election-results-2012/state.shtml?state=CO

[trapeze]

Santorum won my precinct in Colorado. Mrs. trapeze and I both voted for Santorum.

He will, at worst, get a strong second place finish in CO. He might pull it off.

[michelleo]

At my precinct: the vote count was

Romney - 23
Santorum - 19
Newt - 6

I fought the good fight, maybe changed a few minds towards Santorum, but not quite enough.
I didn't vounteer to be delegate because I couldn't in good conscience vote Romney when the time came for delegates to vote.

For adding resolutions to party platform my suggestions:

1.  Term limits for Senate (2 terms) and Congress (4 terms). 

2. Clarify 1st amendment to add a "Right of Conscience" - government cannot legislate your morality - can't mandate you to buy private products, can't force you to pay for others' abortions, etc.

Others suggested:

1. bills need to be single item topic only or word-limited - no more 3000 page bills

2.  A couple of the younger folks in the room suggested that the party put social issues on the backburner.  We should fight those fights culturally, not legislatively - most of the rest of the room disagreed. One guy suggested Republican party should adopt support for civil unions, but not gay marriage.

3.  And, a balanced budget amendment.

4. Flat tax

[trapeze]

I have a seventeen year history with the party in my precinct...been a delegate several times...all the way to the state convention. I got pressured into being a delegate again tonight. *sigh*

Santorum won my precinct.
Romney finished a reasonably close second.
Paul a distant third.
Gingrich was in single digits with a last place finish.

[Libertas]

Newt seems to have really faded, but we'll have to see if he picks up steam again when the races swing south, but it's not looking good for him at present.  There was an article I scanned earlier today, at American Thinker I believe, that made the statement that the Newt or Rick thing has to play out now, not in May, if people want to have a clear alternative to Mitt.  Part of me understands and agrees with that sentiment, but part of me loaths giving Mitt a single target until the right moment, as it would give Mitt a bit of a breather with campaign expenditures.  But I agree at some point the not-Romney alternative has to be solidified so that we can finish this thing.  A brokered convention may still be a viable action, but there is enough time here to sort that out and the swing south will clarify things I think.

[IronDioPriest]

How 'bout Santorum, eh? Not my ideal from the get-go, but given all that's transpired, it's nice to see the two man-boys take a back seat for a while.

Palin's been right about the value of a prolonged battle. Rove spent much effort trying to minimize the importance of Santorum's sweep. Ron Paul alludes to his delegate strategy, suggesting that these non-binding caucuses are only as good as the delegates they produce, and he believes he has a superior delegate ground game.

Trapeze had a hunch, hope, prayer, whatever you wanna call it - that Santorum might pull up from behind. Good call.

Suddenly I'm interested in the race again.

ETA: Mrs IDP and I were going to attend the caucus this evening, but my daughter and her family arrived late for my birthday dinner tonight, so I had to choose, and I chose family. I'm quite happy that the one I planned to caucus for was the clear winner, or I would have been very disappointed that I missed the caucus. I'm disappointed anyway (wish people could be on time when it counts), but it's all good.

[trapeze]

Happy birthday, IDP.

Looks like Santorum is going to pull off an upset in CO. Romney's big areas are in and Santorum is ever so slightly ahead.

[trapeze]

Colorado Springs has yet to be officially reported but the Denver paper is saying that Santorum will win it big. Grand Junction was worrisome to me because of its close proximity to Utah (Mormon vote) but it came in just a few minutes ago for Santorum.

As I write this the vote is split 37% to 37% with Romney ahead by a couple of hundred. That's it, though. Romney's big counties are in. The balance should go to Santorum.

[charlesoakwood]

ETA: If Santorum can make it through Super Tuesday he may be our candidate.
He will have mo' on his side and then Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas.
These states expect him to be pro-life, it's a given. He needs to understand they
want to here how he's going to stop the regulators and allow jobs to come back. 
IMHO that's why Gingrich took SC.

I appreciate and am encouraged by you guys participation, I'm motivated to
go back into it one more time. I'm in a new precinct and it's a Republican minority
so participation may be more worthwhile than my old one that is chained into
mainstream (don't get outta line boy) Republican.

[trapeze]

CNN just projected Santorum as the winner and Colorado Springs still isn't in yet.

Santorum wins Pueblo. That helps.

Not a whole lot of big counties left other than El Paso county where Colorado Springs is located. If the win there is as sizable as earlier reported then Santorum will have won CO decisively. Two point win at least...maybe even a three point win.

[trapeze]

89% reporting now and it's a 2 point lead. Colorado Springs is holding out and when they report it will make it a 3 point lead I think.

This is a huge win for Santorum and a crushing defeat for Romney because of the resources that he poured into the state...a state where he thoroughly kicked McCain's ass four years ago with a 60% to 18% win.