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Author Topic: What About Maine?  (Read 1823 times)

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Offline trapeze

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What About Maine?
« on: February 10, 2012, 09:30:29 PM »
The media is hinting that Maine is going to break for Ron Paul in tomorrow's caucus (or primary or whatever it is they call it up there).

This prediction is pretty much based on Paul spending more time there than anyone else and his purported organizational prowess in Maine. Hmmm...well, I guess we will know by this time tomorrow.

Here is a link to a news story that about this.

Quote
PORTLAND, Maine — He is the only one of the four contenders for the Republican presidential nomination not to have won a state primary or caucus.

But on Saturday, Ron Paul could get his best shot at a victory in Maine, the cold, far northeastern state that has given a warm reception to his libertarian views.

Local caucusing has been under way in Maine since Jan. 29, and will continue in a few towns until March. Even so, the state Republican Party will announce the winner of its presidential straw poll on Saturday, and the Texas congressman’s strong on-the-ground organization could have a big impact.

Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, generally is viewed as the favorite here, and in the overall Republican race. After losing the last three state contests to Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, Romney is thirsty for a morale-boosting win in Maine, where he won 52 percent of the vote during his unsuccessful run for president in 2008.

Paul typically has been viewed as the Republican contender least likely to win the nomination, but he has a loyal following and this week was running second to Romney in a nationwide Reuters/Ipsos poll of Republican voters.

Paul has yet to translate that appeal into a victory in the state-by-state race for the nomination. His best results have been second-place finishes in Minnesota and New Hampshire, in both instances far behind the winner.

Speaking to supporters on Tuesday after his runner-up finish in Minnesota, Paul said he expected to do well in Maine.

The Republican organization in Maine is especially stupid if they are basing their endorsement on a straw poll that itself is based on a bunch of caucuses that have been going on for over a week and still aren't finished. So, I don't know what to think of it, what it will mean. Your guess is as good as mine...I guess.

Romney is supposed to win which sort of makes sense when you think of Romney's strength so far being a mostly regional (north east) kind of thing with Florida and Nevada demonstrating more of a displeasure with Gingrich than an excitement for Romney kind of thing.

But, after this last Tuesday's Santorum sweep and CPAC...who knows?

For what it's worth (and as goofy as Maine is...and let's face it, it is) Maine is the last contest for over two weeks. The next ones on the calendar are Arizona and Michigan on February 28th. That gives Mittens a lot of time to burn through a butt load of money trashing Santorum who, by the way, is surging in Michigan which is the traditional home of Romney outside of Massachusetts. Yippee.

Link to the primary schedule.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2012, 09:40:12 PM by trapeze »
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Offline BigAlSouth

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2012, 07:23:41 AM »
If nut-boy Paul wins Maine, good. Last time I checked, not-Romney is better than Romney.
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Offline warpmine

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2012, 10:04:21 AM »
Quote from: BigAlSouth on February 11, 2012, 07:23:41 AM
If nut-boy Paul wins Maine, good. Last time I checked, not-Romney is better than Romney.
I'll drink to that ::beertoast::
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Offline trapeze

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2012, 11:08:40 AM »
What would really make people's heads explode is if Santorum won.
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Offline IronDioPriest

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2012, 11:23:24 AM »
So if Paul does win, that would still keep Romney in the delegate lead, but it would narrow his victories down to 3 out of 9. Santorum has no committed delegates, with 4 out of 9. Gingrich has SC delegates, with 1 out of 9. Paul would have no committed delegates with 1 out of 9.

Romney's wins: NH, where Democrats can and do vote in the GOP primary. Florida, where senior citizens are a far greater percentage of the population than they are elsewhere. Nevada, where the Mormon population is second only to Utah.

Could it be more clear that conservative middle America does not want Romney shoved down their throats? The establishment miscalculated something fierce.
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Offline Libertas

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2012, 01:00:30 PM »
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charlesoakwood

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2012, 01:10:16 PM »

Romney will win everything he can buy.
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Offline LadyVirginia

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2012, 01:24:36 PM »
Quote from: Charles Oakwood on February 12, 2012, 01:10:16 PM

Romney will win everything he can buy.

...and still no one wants him...

except Ann Coulter and my mother...
 ::facepalm::
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charlesoakwood

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2012, 01:29:30 PM »
 
My mother: "He's such a nice man".   
                                                     ::falldownshocked::
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Offline LadyVirginia

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2012, 01:40:11 PM »
Quote from: Charles Oakwood on February 12, 2012, 01:29:30 PM

My mother: "He's such a nice man".   
                                                     ::falldownshocked::


 ::laughonfloor::
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Offline Libertas

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2012, 01:42:06 PM »
Less emoting, more thinking.  Please!  We have one shot at this!

 ::gaah::
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Offline AlanS

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2012, 02:19:53 PM »
Quote from: Libertas on February 12, 2012, 01:42:06 PM
Less emoting, more thinking.  Please!  We have one shot at this!

 ::gaah::

And it looks to be waaaaaay off target. ::outrage::
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Offline trapeze

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2012, 04:10:51 PM »
Well, we can at least take a breather now until Michigan/Arizona which are quickly followed by Super Tuesday. The only question I have at this point is whether Gingrich hangs around until then. The word is that he is running on fumes and has little to no prospects of bringing in the kind of money necessary to continue. Even his super PAC is supposed to be scaling their spending way back. These are not good signs. Not for Gingrich, anyway.

Santorum has had a large infusion of cash come in since last Tuesday. It's too bad he didn't do better in Maine.

Paul needs to hang it up. If he couldn't capture Maine after all he through into it, well, he is pretty dense about this sort of thing so I guess he will stay in it until he is flat broke.

It really is shaping up to be a two man race between Santorum and Romney.

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Offline Libertas

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2012, 09:12:20 PM »
Paul is too stubborn to go anywhere, like his more rabid supporters.

Newt has an interesting time ahead.
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Offline trapeze

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2012, 09:27:28 PM »
Gingrich has two big things to worry over:

1) Whether he has enough money to make it until the next debate and,

2) Whether he can turn in the kind of debate performance that will bring in both money and votes.

The big problem is that the next debate isn't this week but a full ten days away. That's an eternity at this point in his quest for the nomination. He is screwed.

This is the guy who has a love/hate relationship with the media...he loves them because they give him air time while he uses them as a punching bag. That is, they used to give him air time. Back when he was the Not Romney du jour. Now that position has been ceded to Santorum and he is yesterday's news.

So...no money...no media spotlight...no nothing. He is almost totally screwed. He overplayed his hand and is just about out of chips.

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Offline LadyVirginia

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2012, 09:32:10 PM »
Quote from: trapeze on February 12, 2012, 09:27:28 PM

The big problem is that the next debate isn't this week but a full ten days away. That's an eternity at this point in his quest for the nomination. He is screwed.

This is the guy who has a love/hate relationship with the media...he loves them because they give him air time while he uses them as a punching bag. That is, they used to give him air time. Back when he was the Not Romney du jour. Now that position has been ceded to Santorum and he is yesterday's news.

So...no money...no media spotlight...no nothing. He is almost totally screwed. He overplayed his hand and is just about out of chips.



...well, his minions could always dig up something on Santorum and "leak" it.  Ten days is a heck of a long time to dig.
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Offline AmericanPatriot

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2012, 09:33:07 PM »
Paul people on another forum claim they shut the election down in a Paul stronghold, Washington County because of "weather"

There have been a ton of irregularities.
Personally, I hope Paul stays in until the convention.
His value is his message of freedom, liberty and smaller government.

None of the others even pretend a whole lot about that
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charlesoakwood

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2012, 09:55:45 PM »

So do I.
I'm beginning to hope for a brokered convention.
Could Jeb Bush be worse than Romney?  Well,
maybe but I don't think so.  Or possibly between
Paul and the other forces we may get an actual
conservative.  I'd like to see Paul get the position
of Chief Fed Hacker with an office, staff, and subpoena
power.  Go Ron Paul.
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Online Pandora

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2012, 10:19:52 PM »
The longer they all stay in, the less time and opportunity for the Left to target the nominee.
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Offline trapeze

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Re: What About Maine?
« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2012, 10:20:09 PM »
Quote from: AmericanPatriot on February 12, 2012, 09:33:07 PM
Paul people on another forum claim they shut the election down in a Paul stronghold, Washington County because of "weather"

There have been a ton of irregularities.
Personally, I hope Paul stays in until the convention.
His value is his message of freedom, liberty and smaller government.

None of the others even pretend a whole lot about that

Color me stunned that Paul supporters see a conspiracy behind every shrubbery in Maine. The fact of the matter is that "they can't cheat if it isn't close" to quote a book title from Hugh Hewett. Maine was Paul's to lose with all of the resources that he dumped into that state. He lost.

Paul has won zero states. That isn't going to change. He has a handful of delegates for the sole reason that the early primary states award them proportionately. That will change soon when the state change to "winner take all" mode. Then he won't get any more.

Paul has himself to blame for this. While, as most people acknowledge, he has worthy points about fiscal and monetary policy, he is his own worst enemy in most other areas. I need not and will not bother to list them...we all know what they are by now.

I appreciate his presence in the campaign for his positions and tenacity on fiscal and monetary issues but realistically his usefulness is at an end. If he can't win Maine it's pretty much game over.
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