Author Topic: The "Its About Liberty" Office Pool (Read 19963 times)

Libertas · « **Reply #180 on:** May 06, 2013, 08:14:51 PM »

Sounds good to me.

Congrats Charles.

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #181 on:** May 06, 2013, 08:20:12 PM »

Thanks.

Bump

Quote from: Weisshaupt on May 06, 2013, 11:35:31 AM

Weisshaupt's Guessing Aids:

Average Year Over Year Monthly NICS growth for all data, Bush and Obama Years

Average Total NICS checks per month for all Data, Bush and Obama Years

Average Month to Month Changes

What is somewhat interesting is that the Totals and month to month changes are essentially the same curves.. with buying still peaking and falling off in the same months- just with Obama's turned up to 11..

Any resemblance to Bull's Eye targets is purely coincidental.

Weisshaupt · « **Reply #182 on:** June 05, 2013, 11:43:28 AM »

No Guesses. No High Praise for anyone.

The number for may was 1,435,917 Still up 9% Year over Year. - less than Halfway though 2013, and already over 10 Million checks for the year.

Libertas · « **Reply #183 on:** June 05, 2013, 11:46:08 AM »

We forgot to guess?

Oh well, seems like things are winding down a bit, don't see June being any better than May...I'll go with an even $1.5m.

benb61 · « **Reply #184 on:** June 05, 2013, 11:51:51 AM »

I'll guess 1,625,000 for June (I'm hoping to get something this month).

Weisshaupt · « **Reply #185 on:** June 05, 2013, 11:54:59 AM »

Quote from: Libertas on June 05, 2013, 11:46:08 AM

We forgot to guess?

Oh well, seems like things are winding down a bit, don't see June being any better than May...I'll go with an even $1.5m.

Yes, only 9% Year over Year growth this month -- if we finished the year with 0% YoY growth each month, we end up with a mere 22 Million NICs Checks for the year.
I wonder if the 9% is a function of problems with supply, or simply the chilling effect the government is after with the hysteria, police stops and child abuse in schools. Can't get a gun, if my kid talks about it he will get suspended!

Predator Don · « **Reply #186 on:** June 05, 2013, 12:16:40 PM »

people vacation in june....1,364, 269

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #187 on:** June 05, 2013, 04:15:55 PM »

Forgot? Some distraction?

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #188 on:** June 28, 2013, 08:48:33 AM »

I'm not going to forget this time.

1,306,685

Glock32 · « **Reply #189 on:** June 28, 2013, 01:33:32 PM »

1,242,000

Weisshaupt · « **Reply #190 on:** July 08, 2013, 08:11:58 AM »

Charles Oakwood earns High praise for his guess of 1,306,685 being over by a mere 25334
Narrowly edging out Glock32 who was under by 39351.

the number was 1,281,351 down less than 2% Year over year and around 11% from last month.

Post your guesses and speculations..
Anyone seeing the Ammo situation getting better?
Gun shows being less attended? Or is the Firearm Stock simply mirroring the ammo supply?

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #191 on:** July 08, 2013, 10:14:35 AM »

Thank you, thank you, thank you. I actually used a calculator to come up with that number. Whew, that was close.

I frequent Wallmart and at every visit cruise through sporting goods for a casual survey and a chat with the clerk. The answer last visit, well, actually, she said "at least we had firecrackers", was the same as the day it started.

Libertas · « **Reply #192 on:** July 08, 2013, 11:26:40 AM »

Congrats CO.

My store visits seem to indicate more desires for for ammo than for what shoots it...latter isn't much fun without the former.

I sense a slackening ... I'll speculate a round million for July.

Predator Don · « **Reply #193 on:** July 08, 2013, 12:16:12 PM »

Well....I'm getting my estimate in early.

July: 1,099,099

Alphabet Soup · « **Reply #194 on:** July 08, 2013, 02:18:21 PM »

Quote from: Charles Oakwood on July 08, 2013, 10:14:35 AM

Thank you, thank you, thank you. I actually used a calculator to come up with that number. Whew, that was close.

I frequent Wallmart and at every visit cruise through sporting goods for a casual survey and a chat with the clerk. The answer last visit, well, actually, she said "at least we had firecrackers", was the same as the day it started.

Congrats Charles ;-)

I continue to poke around and keep an eye on things even though I don't really need to buy much. I found some powder that has been AWOL for close to two years but no luck on primers yet.

benb61 · « **Reply #195 on:** July 08, 2013, 05:49:19 PM »

I'm gonna guestimate 1,150,000 for July.

John Florida · « **Reply #196 on:** July 08, 2013, 07:40:28 PM »

Quote from: Charles Oakwood on July 08, 2013, 10:14:35 AM

Thank you, thank you, thank you. I actually used a calculator to come up with that number. Whew, that was close.

I frequent Wallmart and at every visit cruise through sporting goods for a casual survey and a chat with the clerk. The answer last visit, well, actually, she said "at least we had firecrackers", was the same as the day it started.

Weisshaupt · « **Reply #197 on:** August 12, 2013, 09:59:04 AM »

Sorry its late this month, Been working, then vacationing and just forgot...
So Ben61 was robbed of a full week of High High praise for his guess of 1,150,00 !!!

the number was 1,283,912 virtually unchanged from last month, and down less than 2% Year over Year.

Is this an indication of saturation? That demand continues and supply is simply limited to around 1,300,000? Will simply guessing 1,300,000 win you high praise next month?

Speculations and Guesses please...

Libertas · « **Reply #198 on:** August 12, 2013, 11:35:40 AM »

The scrolling marquee is truncated...what're we missing?

Weisshaupt · « **Reply #199 on:** August 12, 2013, 11:49:27 AM »

Quote from: Libertas on August 12, 2013, 11:35:40 AM

The scrolling marquee is truncated...what're we missing?

Apparently using a comma the way I used it was bad.
Seems to be fixed when I look at it.

Author Topic: The "Its About Liberty" Office Pool (Read 19963 times)

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