Author Topic: The "Its About Liberty" Office Pool (Read 19956 times)

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #160 on:** March 05, 2013, 04:51:36 PM »

Thank you, Weisshaupt, I only wish and should have known at his election that the most certain investment would be in the arms business.

I wonder if they are going to start running out of guns as they are ammunition?

Back to the calculator.

Glock32 · « **Reply #161 on:** March 05, 2013, 04:58:32 PM »

Good work CO.

For the next month, I'll go with 2,020,000.

Libertas · « **Reply #162 on:** March 06, 2013, 06:53:32 AM »

Well, my glory faded fast, oh well. Good job CO!

I'll take 2,100,000 this time.

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #163 on:** March 06, 2013, 10:01:52 AM »

I'll let it ride, 2,500,000.

Predator Don · « **Reply #164 on:** March 06, 2013, 02:07:45 PM »

1,902,000

Weisshaupt · « **Reply #165 on:** April 03, 2013, 11:19:53 AM »

Libertas wins High praise for his guess of 2,100,000 being under by 209,407!
the number was 2,209,407 slightly down from last month- about 100,000 . I expect an increasing number of people to acquire weapons via private sale or simply illegally - just because they want no record of their purchase, and they have already decided to make you a criminal. . Over 70 Million checks have been performed during Obama's term - but remember - Obama will never take your guns!

If the current average rate for 2013 remains at 2,338,000 a month , there will be over 28 MILLION checks just this year alone, although one could argue the rate is trending downward- about 4-7%- Even then, if rates contue to trend downward at 10% a month, there will still be 19 million checks. If we take the historical average month to month growth/decline of 2009-2012 the rest of 2013 should look like:

April 1998718
May 1744805
June 1689965
July 1711232
August 1897887
Sept 1889451
October 2124607
November 2298283
December 2829581

Giving us a total of 25 Million checks in 2013 to add to Obama's 70 Million in his first term

Okay Guess accordingly - who is up for giving us the right number for April?

Libertas · « **Reply #166 on:** April 03, 2013, 11:30:28 AM »

Two-time winner!

I think it will go up, we see the unsanity going on in CT & CO, UN BS, it is going to escalate, I'll up the number a bit to 2,525,000 this month.

Glock32 · « **Reply #167 on:** April 03, 2013, 11:41:08 AM »

I'll take 2,360,000.

benb61 · « **Reply #168 on:** April 03, 2013, 12:09:50 PM »

Put me down for 2,375,000.

Predator Don · « **Reply #169 on:** April 03, 2013, 12:36:54 PM »

Quote from: Libertas on April 03, 2013, 11:30:28 AM

Two-time winner!

I think it will go up, we see the unsanity going on in CT & CO, UN BS, it is going to escalate, I'll up the number a bit to 2,525,000 this month.

Hey, don't get cocky.... 2, 399,717

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #170 on:** April 03, 2013, 05:26:53 PM »

The manufacturers are maxed out, I'm in for 2,000,000.

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #171 on:** April 10, 2013, 12:46:30 PM »

http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/fbi-conducting-32-gun-purchase-background-checks-minute-under-obama

...assuming only one gun per check was purchased.

Libertas · « **Reply #172 on:** April 11, 2013, 06:18:14 AM »

Mfg's might be maxed out but production is going somewhere, I say the ka-ching factor keeps them humming and people keep on buying, it's all about the urgent appetite now, and Obama & the rest of the gun-grabbing demonazis will keep the fire burning.

Libertas · « **Reply #173 on:** April 30, 2013, 07:13:04 AM »

Solid 1st quarter. Bullish!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/weaponized-america-sturm-ruger-backlog-doubles-gun-production-shipments-surge

Weisshaupt · « **Reply #174 on:** May 06, 2013, 09:16:27 AM »

Charles Oakwood is back on top and wins High praise for his guess of 2,000,000 being over by 285567!
the number was a mere 1,714,433 significantly down from last month. and even below my spreadsheet calculation of 1998718 based on average change over the last 4 years, and well below everyone's guesses. . The FBI also failed to update the download link to indicate April.. which is a bit odd since the file it pointed to was updated.

So, that a pretty big dropoff. Feel free to speculate as to the causes as you leave your guess for May.
Is supply of actual firearms growing short? Is the frenzy caused by Obama's push over? Has the government started to lie about this number as well?

Weisshaupt · « **Reply #175 on:** May 06, 2013, 11:35:31 AM »

Weisshaupt's Guessing Aids:

Average Year Over Year Monthly NICS growth for all data, Bush and Obama Years

Average Total NICS checks per month for all Data, Bush and Obama Years

Average Month to Month Changes

What is somewhat interesting is that the Totals and month to month changes are essentially the same curves.. with buying still peaking and falling off in the same months- just with Obama's turned up to 11..

Any resemblance to Bull's Eye targets is purely coincidental.

Glock32 · « **Reply #176 on:** May 06, 2013, 11:52:50 AM »

It sounds to me like CO is doing some insider trading. He should consider running for Congress!

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #177 on:** May 06, 2013, 12:43:57 PM »

January trend - No guess
March - end of falling plateu
June - Father's Day
Aug / Nov - Pre-season sales
Dec - Christmas

As to the second graph, Merry Christmas!

charlesoakwood · « **Reply #178 on:** May 06, 2013, 12:45:32 PM »

Quote from: Glock32 on May 06, 2013, 11:52:50 AM

It sounds to me like CO is doing some insider trading. He should consider running for Congress!

Vote for me and I'll run 'em out of town on a rail, the whole lot.

benb61 · « **Reply #179 on:** May 06, 2013, 12:51:51 PM »

Quote from: Charles Oakwood on May 06, 2013, 12:45:32 PM

Quote from: Glock32 on May 06, 2013, 11:52:50 AM
It sounds to me like CO is doing some insider trading. He should consider running for Congress!

Vote for me and I'll run 'em out of town on a rail, the whole lot.

^^^^^
That right there gets my vote.

Author Topic: The "Its About Liberty" Office Pool (Read 19956 times)

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