Topic: Decision Time Approaches

[Weisshaupt]

MichelleO and I have pretty much decided that we will be selling our to big suburban home in the too liberal neighborhood.

Question is: where to go next..

Option 1) Smaller  home in another suburban neighborhood we own outright  (no mortgage)
Option 2) A smaller home on a 2.5 Acre  property  zoned for Agricultural- allowing us to experiment with Yaks, Chickens, Bees etc, while not isolating our kids from friends and other town based  opportunities.  (Trade across mortgage for our current place)   
Option 3) Move to the Teotwaki place, buy a big piece of land for Yaks and start just living that way for real (no mortgage)

I am leaning towards the AG property.  Downside is security - its in town not too far from a high school. Up side is geo-diversity, as it basically gives me a second small acreage homestead  - and hedges my bets again. Daughter really wants a horse someday, and we can experiment with livestock without ripping our roots from the ground.  But then there is that security thing again,  and a mortgage so I have to keep working for a bit still.  (with the lower rate monthly payment isn't as bad so I can start to just pay it off quicker.. if inflation kicks in AND I stay employed, paying if off is probably not going to be a problem, but its not the sort of place that will sell easy either if I can't get work.


Any thoughts?

[IronDioPriest]

Wish I had a bugout house. Not in the scope of reality for us though.

[charlesoakwood]

"The Great Reckoning:
Protecting Yourself in the Coming Depression"
by James Dale Davidson, William Rees-Mogg

The authors believe that the world is on the brink of cataclysmic social and political change to be brought about by a world-wide economic depression

http://www.alibris.com/search/books/qwork/13273561/used/The%20Great%20Reckoning%3A%20Protect%20Your%20Self%20in%20the%20Coming%20Depression

http://www.amazon.com/The-Great-Reckoning-Protecting-Depression/dp/0671885286

Yes, the book is an antique but there are one or more chapters devoted directly to your question.  The answer is well thought out and well presented. Lord Rees-Mogg and Davidson are keen observers even if their predictions are off.  It's not necessary to obtain a revised version to obtain the answer to your question and you should be able to buy it for less than $25.  It will be worth the purchase price.

[Weisshaupt]

Wish I had a bugout house. Not in the scope of reality for us though.

We were always savers, and never took out any loans we didn't have to. Other than a Saturn, we never bought a new car,  and we have always lived below our means. We were two earner till children, paid down our first house on a 10 year mortgage,  had some good luck with investments,  and saved like crazy: my dream was being "wealthy enough" by my late 50s that I didn't worry about money, and I would be free to pursue hobbies, take a trip etc, if I kept them within reason.  Then everything changed, retirement ( ever) was no longer an option and Helicopter Ben promised to make all of the money I worked so hard to save worthless. 

So we have a bug out house. Others bought bullion. The Bug-out house  IS my retirement fund ( and I will be perfectly happy retiring there if I am wrong and unicorns save us, and I can put in another 20 years of working to build  funds back up again)The question is what do we do with the equity in our current house - since we have decided we just can't take this neighborhood anymore ( but we are not sure we are ready to drag our kids to the middle of nowhere either.. without the Kids we would have sold the whole kit and caboodle, bought a couple hundred acre  ranch and just moved there 2 years ago) 

 Real Estate in general is probably going to continue to depreciate, but so is the house we already have and live in... easy come, easy go I guess.  The real questions are what to do with the equity: should I continue having a mortgage,should I continue living in town, and is a  mini-farm in town even a good idea? Or am I just better off consolidating everything ..

The Deer were visiting the Bug-Out house today.  We had 60 Elk walk by over spring break.  We see pronghorn there on occasion as well.

[Weisshaupt]

"The Great Reckoning:
Protecting Yourself in the Coming Depression"
by James Dale Davidson, William Rees-Mogg

Thanks CO. Just ordered it.  I take it that the answer doesn't lend itself to summary?

[Pandora]

I don't have children, Weisshaupt, but even so I say go; consolidate and go bug-out.  Whatever your kids are made to sacrifice in terms of "modern" life and friendships andandand, they'll more than make up for in reality learning.

The question, as I see it, is what serves them better in the end?

[charlesoakwood]

It's been a long time.  Aside from their economic observations (poor) and predictions (they did accurately predict the LA riots in a previous book) part of the book is devoted to 'cataclysmic social and political change'.  Within these scenarios they discuss the healthy environment. The qualities that determine a safe, healthy and growing community.  A community composition that will not only to survive but prosper while the nation is in hardship. They believe that even thou there will be a catastrophic occurrence, including barbarians, there will be pockets of civility whose inhabitants will be those with the forethought, fortitude, intelligence, and wherewithal to be there before it happens.  

[A college town of 100K, 50% of the town intellectual and 50% blue collar, each of the members of the town recognizing the value of the other.  Self determination and self sufficiency.]

[Glock32]

That is an enviable setup you have there, very nice.  I'm honestly nowhere close to self-sufficiency in a TEOTWAWKI scenario. I am doing what I can within reason, and with the resources I have available, but have pretty much hedged my bet on my immediate community being rather likeminded and between us capable of forming a "tribal" subsistence.

Honestly I think if I were in your position I'd go with your Option 3. We all know it's coming. Might be best to start now so you can work the bugs out of your system while we're still under some semblance of a functioning economy.

[Weisshaupt]

[A college town of 100K, 50% of the town intellectual and 50% blue collar, each of the members of the town recognizing the value of the other.  Self determination and self sufficiency.]

Yeah, I don't think that place exists. A College town by definition means a lot of strong, young entitled brats who will be the first to riot and burn, regardless of who else lives there.. and they tend to not be blue collar because the liberals that are there drive the price of living too high... at least in Colorado - the Californians influx just played havoc with anyplace pretty or boasting "intellectual" activities.  I can't even think of a place (in or out of Colorado)  that would match that description.

 Not to mention that post-collapse not shooting a liberal will be the most help I will be willing to offer to one.   Maybe such a town will be ready for prosperity after  a die off,  but that sort implies not being there while that is happening.  100K is still a huge number too.  If transportation systems and food supplies collapse because of fuel prices/availability,  there just won't be any way to feed them. Its not without historical precedence either. During the great depression  crops rotted in farmer's fields, and meat was not slaughtered, there being no way to get them to  market without a loss.  Meanwhile those in the city had to pay higher prices for the food that was close enough to be delivered.  Back in the 1930s we were still a more agrarian nation,  and many in the cities grew up with the rural skill set. We we just more self-sufficient in mind and body.
 

[charlesoakwood]

Such places do exist, I've seen them, usually in the still isolated and uninfested areas of the U.S.  I'm not suggessting  a move, I'm not moving. 
However,for a community to survive a long term catastophic event both parts of civil life must be present.
 
Lincoln, Nebraska
There are at least 10 colleges in Lincoln... . These schools represent 38,278 or more students (full-time and part-time), a combined student body equivalent to 34,626 full-time students, and a reported 9,009 dorm rooms.

http://www.unl.edu/ucomm/lincoln/

The University of Nebraska-Lincoln is located in a vibrant and safe city of 250,000 people that has many of the cultural and entertainment benefits of a much larger city, with the feel of a friendly Midwestern community.

Top 10 Reasons You'll Love Lincoln

    #2 U.S. City, Quality of Life
    (The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, 2011)
   
 Lincoln Public Schools was ranked 2nd in quality of education in an eight-state area of the Midwest. In fact, Lincoln maintains the 4th highest percentage of graduating high school seniors in the nation.
   
 4th Best Place to Raise a Family
    (Children's Health, 2009)
   
Top 10, America's Most Livable Cities
    (Forbes.com 2010)
   
3rd Best City for Babies
    (Parents 2010)
   
 5th Best Place for Business and Careers
    (Forbes.com, 2010)
   
Top 10 College Town, Top 100 Place to Live
    (relocateamerica.com, 2010)
   
Lincoln's health care costs are among the lowest in the nation and according to a study by Milliman & Robertson, Inc., Nebraska businesses pay among the lowest in employee-paid insurance coverage.
   
5th Safest American City (Forbes, 2011)
   
Top 10 Best Places to Retire - Place to launch a second career
    (U.S. News & World Report, 2012)

And your surronded by farmers.

[Weisshaupt]

I don't have children, Weisshaupt, but even so I say go; consolidate and go bug-out.  Whatever your kids are made to sacrifice in terms of "modern" life and friendships andandand, they'll more than make up for in reality learning.

The question, as I see it, is what serves them better in the end?

By that reasoning the AG land in town probably serves them best. They can still have the friendships, take martial arts, participate in clubs and then come home to take care of the chickens, feed the yaks, and do the bee keeping.  They get skills in both arenas. Its just hard to predict how bad this will get.  Using the Argentina model, life goes on, and those with a means to produce can. I have the bug-out so if I need to get out of town I can.  The problem with the bug out is that there is no really  suitable land  real close.  You can get it, but its a good 10-20 minute drive.  Now imagine a foot of snow and no fuel.   Of course prices have fallen up there enough that I could just get a second place with a home up there - so a small ranch and the smaller bug out home in the rural community. ( If things really get bad, you will need a like minded tribe)  Problem with the ranch properties is that its like living in Kansas. No trees, the wind can be a SOB (most houses have berms around them  that cut off the views because the wind is so bad)  MichelleO doesn't like that sort of property,  and the sort she likes are beyond our means. Of course if you own a larger property, those are exactly the sort that will be targets for tax increases or outright seizure - either for  land or mineral rights. Water rights could also be forced from you.  There is  National Forest land near the community up there, and if teotwaki hits I suspect it will be possible to just lease land near to the the property as well. So its not clear to me that I want to take on the burden and risk  of actually owning it.  Not to mention security on a larger property becomes more problematic.

The main risk of being in town would be being forced to abandon it - if things get that bad.  Its just hard to say. In Argentina they didn't, but the people there are  more self-sufficient, more used to third world living.   But if we just degenerate into a 3rd world country - you have the rolling blackouts, service problems, and higher crime, but that doesn't mean you can't still live in town.  The mortgage I see as a lesser risk..  with Inflation, I think housing becomes a none issue very quickly, plus the banks will be unable to deal with all of the squatters.

Point is actual food production can be done in both locations, and really will be more productive and easier in/near  town. In an Argentina scenario, production ability  is the key  to doing well.

[Weisshaupt]

.
 
Lincoln, Nebraska
There are at least 10 colleges in Lincoln... . These schools represent 38,278 or more students (full-time and part-time), a combined student body equivalent to 34,626 full-time students, and a reported 9,009 dorm rooms.

Yes, I am familiar with Lincoln. I have family there.  Too near Omaha really. And Too liberal.  And talk about the prime farmland for seizure and confiscation. .

[BMG]

Instead of ditching your big house in the too-liberal neighborhood, there may be another option.

In my area there is a realtor who also offers a rental service. Here's what she does: Someone has a house they wish to rent out, but they don't want the hassle that goes along with being a landlord. So she steps in and administers everything related to renting the property. She advertises the place for rent, conducts background checks of the perspective renters (in accordance with your guidelines - ie, no pets, no smokers, whatever), collects the rent, sends out handymen if repairs need to be made, administers evictions if needed, etc. The real property owner pays her a 10% (that's 10% of the rent) in fees and she mails them the remainder of the rent.

Here's why I'm mentioning this. If you sell now you take a loss because property values suck right now. But in my area I have a three bedroom, two bath house on 5 acres that will rent for $1,000.00/month. If I do that for a few years and then sell my property at a loss I will have effectively insulated myself from the loss in equity that I am currently enjoying because of the socialist policies that have caused all this crap.

Anyway, it's something to consider if you can find someone that could administer your property as I described above...unless of course you don't mind being a landlord I guess.  

[Weisshaupt]

Instead of ditching your big house in the too-liberal neighborhood, there may be another option.
. If I do that for a few years and then sell my property at a loss I will have effectively insulated myself from the loss in equity that I am currently enjoying because of the socialist policies that have caused all this crap.

I will be able to sell the House for basically what I bought it for, and that was with "bubble money" on my first house. Even if you add up all of the interest, improvements, etc that I did on that first house, I pretty much broke even on living there for 7 years because it sold so high. That (extra bubble) money went into this house which I bought for too high a price, but even then I am loosing only around $40K of improvements (I finished the basement, did the landscaping, and added a PV system) and of course the houses we are looking at have lost value too.  Its just like the bubble never happened :>)

Renting of course is a viable option, but then I would have to rent to liberals, because that is likely who would want to live in the neighborhood but still  be to lame to get a loan to buy a house there. And really I have a better chance of staying out of jail if I just don't interact with them. Granted I could make the mgmt company deal with it, but I still have to pay for repairs. Don't let monkeys live in your house.

[BMG]

Good news then, that you won't really be loosing any equity. 

So with that outa the way, I'd think the Ag Land option would be most viable. No need to cut yourself off from society right now, especially since you have a fall back plan already in place. Plenty of flexibility there.

[Libertas]

I feel the same on the rental issue, having to lease my space out to potential knobs would infuriate me, and I don't think a libiot could come up with a large enough damage deposit to satisfy me.

I'm about halway through my mortgage, if the poop hits the fan, like Weisshaupt says no way the banks can handle that much delinquint property, but if they want it and anything I left behind, they can knock themselves out.

Sounds like the AG property is the way to go.  Either way good luck and let us know how it goes.