Topic: Climate Models Do Worse Than Random Number Generators

[trapeze]

LINK

Oops.

A few years ago a biologist I know looked at how climate change might affect the spread of a particular invasive insect species. He obtained climate-model projections for North America under standard greenhouse-gas scenarios from two modelling labs, and then tried to characterize how the insect habitat might change. To his surprise, he found very different results depending on which model was used. Even though both models were using the same input data, they made opposite predictions about regional climate patterns in North America.

This reminded me of a presentation I’d seen years earlier about predicted changes in U.S. rainfall patterns under global warming. The two models being used for a government report again made diametrically opposite predictions. In region after region, if one model predicted a tendency toward more flooding, the other tended to predict drying.

Just how good are climate models at predicting regional patterns of climate change? I had occasion to survey this literature as part of a recently completed research project on the subject. The simple summary is that, with few exceptions, climate models not only fail to do better than random numbers, in some cases they are actually worse.

Sucks when your life's work gets blowed up.

[Glock32]

Speaking of climate as it relates to invasive insects, I have made an anecdotal observation just in my own part of NC.  After the cold winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11, I have observed a dramatic decrease in the number of fire ants.  Throughout the 90s and 2000s there were huge fire ant mounds everywhere. My backyard was a minefield of them. Being native to South America, they have limited tolerance for cold and the mid-Atlantic was about as far as they could establish themselves. I suspect even NC is too far north for them to establish permanent presence.

The moral of the story is that nature doesn't work on our time frame and all the certitude surrounding global warming is constantly being disproved by actual empirical evidence.

[Alphabet Soup]

Reminds me of a cartoon I saw years ago in a Readers Digest magazine (my grampa loved it!).

In the first frame a guy is busily poring over massive graphs and complicated instruments. In the background there is a sign that says (something to the effect of) "TV Weather". He has a frowny-face as he contemplates all of the data. In the second frame we see the same guy sticking his head out the window with his finger stretched out and a knowing smile on his face.

A great man once opined, "Trust, but verify"

Using your head for something other than a place to hang your hat is a good idea, too 

[charlesoakwood]

Fire ants, tangentially, will feed on termites and they do not eat wood.
They will occupy the areas eaten by termites but not damage the wood.
So, if the exterminator says your house is inhabited by Formosa termites
and it will be necessary to encap$ulate your house with a tarp and fumigate
it... there is an alternative.

[IronDioPriest]

In a tiny town called Harding MN, there is a rather large boulder hanging from a chain on a tri-pod. It is cynically called the "Weather Rock". It has been there since I was a small child, and I've been told it was placed there when my grandfather was young.

Under the rock is a sign that says something like,
[blockquote]"If the rock is wet, it's raining,
if the rock is white, it's snowing,
if the rock is moving, it's windy".[/blockquote]

Common sense folk had disdain for weather predictors long before "Global Warming" became "Climate Change". Imagine what they think of the insanity we face now.

[Glock32]

Fire ants, tangentially, will feed on termites and they do not eat wood.
They will occupy the areas eaten by termites but not damage the wood.
So, if the exterminator says your house is inhabited by Formosa termites
and it will be necessary to encap$ulate your house with a tarp and fumigate
it... there is an alternative.

I didn't know that.  Fire ants ruined my water heater a few years ago.  It was an electric unit in the crawl space.  They apparently built a huge nest underneath the outer sheet metal, seeking warmth, and eventually they got into the electrical junction and fried it.

[Pandora]

Fire ants, tangentially, will feed on termites and they do not eat wood.
They will occupy the areas eaten by termites but not damage the wood.
So, if the exterminator says your house is inhabited by Formosa termites
and it will be necessary to encap$ulate your house with a tarp and fumigate
it... there is an alternative.

Okay, say one goes with the alternative.  How does one eliminate the fire ants from one's house?