Topic: Wargaming for a Tea Party insurrection

[Pandora]

Bottom line: Do not jump the gun.
If it's going to happen let them do it.

Why, Charles?  You tell me why?  Because p-p-p-public opinion?  Hmm? Because why?  The press?  The military?  What?

[Alphabet Soup]

I wish sometimes that I had paid better attention and stuck with school. I've gathered some skills at gauging human behavior but recognize my own shortcomings. That said, I've learned some things about leftists that run remarkably true to form. They are almost universally cowards. They don't look you in the eye (except for the sociopaths) and they don't fight fair. They incite and antagonize, and prod and goad, but rarely make the first move. Instead they like to posture and lure you into showing your hand.

In the pursuit of Øbozo's fundamental transformation they will continually make overt moves, daring us to object (just as he has done). Every time the pubbies roll over and show their bellies they will respond by taking another step. Should a pubbie show some grit they will accuse him of being a reactionary or, with Øbozo, a racist. After a short period of assurances that they won't take any further steps they will take another step.

The only way to stop them is to meet them head on and use the nuclear option of de-funding them. Since there are no pubbies who have the stones to do that we continue to play the game...and lose.

The other nuclear option is the open rebellion. I think that it is rather apparent that they know this and know that we know that they know this. Hence the wargame. It is designed to mock and goad. Will we accommodate them by winging a few rounds or make them take the first real step?

Moral authority dictates that we must wait on them.

[Pandora]

Forgive me, but moral authority?!  Whose?!  They're goose-stepping us into submission for fear of taking the first stand.  God dammit, Soup.  Enough is enough already.  Do we just walk peaceably into the railcars because they haven't fired on us?

*sigh*

More from Barnhardt's page:

Multiple Things
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - August 6, AD 2012 6:54 PM MST
1. The boys over at Sipsey Street Irregulars have posted a full piece on the Army Wargaming against the Tea Party article that I posted just below. Those guys sure can do the research. They go into detail about the author (COL Kevin Benson), who I have since learned is a Gen. Wesley Clark disciple. You Remember Wesley Clark, right? The flaming Marxist who ran for president a few years back? He was endorsed by Madonna, so that right there tells you pretty much all you need to know.

The Sipsey Street crew also explains how highly influential the Small Wars Journal is. Like I said, this isn't some Alex Jones carney hack outfit that published this piece.

[Weisshaupt]

Weisshaupt, you are a puzzle wrapped in an enigma, to me.  You have so little faith in Americans, on the whole, yet you hold that there are "awake" military who will defect.  Doesn't it depend on how bad things are economically, that it may depend on whether or not their families are to be taken care of, or made to suffer unless they obey?

Military are self-selected- they either self select because they want the Army to be their family and take care of them--for the socialist nature of the institution, or because they really want to help their country and learn the skills of a warror. My bet isthat the numbers are pretty even, or slightly favor the patriot side.  In other words, they don't resemble the american population as a whole.  Hard times will increase the number of sell outs, no doubt, but I doubt it will change the numbers enough to avoid a real split and division in the ranks come SHTF. Those who understand the stakes also understand that you can't trade freedom for security.  John Adama left his wife alone in Boston, while he went to Congress, and then to Europe.  She was in harms way, had little income and had to raise his kids basiaclly without help. Sacrifice is part of the game here. I am willing to bet that people who are willing to put their own lives on the line for their country are more likely to get it.  consequently their families must sacrifice as well - and risk the death of a spouse, etc - an individual doesn't join. The family does.   Most military members have already made that decision, and are therefore less likely to cave in just to save their families. I could iof course be wrong, but that is the reasoning behind my thinking

[Weisshaupt]

Bottom line: Do not jump the gun.
If it's going to happen let them do it.

Why, Charles?  You tell me why?  Because p-p-p-public opinion?  Hmm? Because why?  The press?  The military?  What?

I don't know if I would call it moral authority. Its more of the preference cascade effect. For a rebellion  to be successful we need the preference cascade to happen in our favor. That means making them show their hand as to what and who they really are.. and even then its iffy. But if you have 1% in revolt, you have 300 Million people still looking to turn them in  and help target them for a pat on the head if they think that doing so is the "right thing" - and the sheep are so damn stupid that we need it to be really really obvious that the government is in the wrong. Or at least have it be wrong enough that these cowards shy away from defending it and attacking the rebellion.  The Civil War would never have happened if a preference cascade had not - The Southern States needed to make a collective decision to rebel and to go to war over it. Its a human behavior in groups thing.  Too little or too soon and it fails. People have to feel a cause is just to join a fight. that is why the left tries so hard to smear people who are doing nothing but declaring our Founder's and their principles to be correct.   They call the tea party racist,  they call militias terrorists, because they fear that without  such smears, that a preference cascade in Liberty's favor will occur.

The Hope N Change liberal just wants to feel good about themselves, but few of that type of useless idiot can advocate the murder of their fellow citizens and keep up the illusion that they are good or noble.  Sure there are ones who can, but the vast majority of the sheep really just want that little ego high. Wil Wheaton couldn't bring himself to say that the government should be banning Chic-fil-a , while maintaining that anyone who disagrees with him is an irrational bigot. What he found was that it was hard to be self-righteous when being a dick.  I wouldn't expect any conversions, but I do expect that when they can no longer get their feel good buzz, they will loose interest, and stop talking about it. If that occurs, the conversation or "narrative" will shift.  The Hope N change liberal is a teen who just  wants to be part of the popular crowd, if we become the cool kids,  they will support ( or at least not oppose)  the new agenda.  Or at least that is the theory.  We are waiting for a flash point that causes that shift, or results in us all fighting and dying and the liberals winning and getting the hell on earth they so richly deserve. May Obamacare and medical advances keep them alive and slaving away in poverty for 200 years.
 

[Libertas]

My big fear in waiting for the opposition to show their hand (and oh, haven't they several times already?!) is finding my rights illegally revoked and my arms removed.

[Weisshaupt]

Series up at Porretto's new place, by a contributing author.

Read all six, they go fast.

What say you?

Wow, that guy makes me look positively optimistic in comparison.
Its an interesting read, but it wasn't very illuminating for me. A lot of black and white fallacy arguments, and a thinly veiled racism of a kind that would make the left all hot and wet.  A lot of the characterization of people is "they are all this" or "they are all that"  - but we know the problem is one of degree. We have evil barbarians and we have good men, each in varying degrees according to circumstances, which are always changing. He also seems to attribute permanent characteristics based on race and religion. Cultures and races change over time, and sudden changes, while rare, are possible - the preference cascade.

The American Creed and Trinity (as Dennis Prager calls it) on our coins — Liberty, In God We Trust, E Pluribus Unum — was dead. Everything our Founding Fathers fought for and established no longer existed. The Constitution was toilet paper.

The Republic the founders formed is dead. Their ideas are not, and won't be till they have burned the books and executed every real American. He says there is no where for the angry Americans to flow or coalesce, but asserts

I assume solvent States are not going to allow themselves to be robbed forever. They needn’t secede formally. They can simply ignore an increasingly toothless (because it’s broke) Federal government, and form semi-autonomous regions with their own currency and commerce.[/url]

and the States become the vehicle of resistance and protection form the Fed - just as the Founders planned. The monetary collapse is going to leave a power vacuum - and that means there will be a struggle - and probably an armed one.  His prediction that we are too divided to keep a Federal Union of all 50 States is probably correct, but as we know that  Union is already lost. The Feds will have to consolidate the country under their iron boot before the collapse or not at all. We already have some States resisting, and the Fed retaliating. As things get more unpleasant there will be large numbers of people ( conservative and liberal) who decide to emigrate in search of greener pastures - liberals especially. They are locusts- they ruin a place and then move on. They want the prosperity, but understand nothing about how its created, and certainly don't want to work for it.

But won’t the solvent States be magnets for the very people who destroyed their own regions, and won’t they bring as many illegals as they can with them?
Texas is being held up as a well governed, low taxed, more highly employed, and open development paradise, but over half the students there are Hispanic, legal and illegal.

Here is that racism thing - as if Hispanics can't be real Americans. The left has used race to divide us,  but in this contest it isn't black against white, or WASPS against everyone else. It is looters vs producers, grasshoppers vs ants, and grudgers vs cheaters and their sucker minions.  The successful states will not be magnets for the locusts if they aren't locust friendly. State govt are strapped as well- the social services just won't be there for the grasshoppers. You work and you live well. You don't and you starve.  Liberals follow "social safety nets", not prosperity. They avoid openly conservative places like Wyoming and Texas, and when they do go to enclaves (Austin) - witness this question and I suspect as this drags out and both sides become more hostile to each other,  the separation will become more pronounced- as the native populations of such places make it clear that they are done taking the liberal sh*t. One of my liberal ex- buddies left AZ for Washington State, while keeping his job in AZ working remotely. He has done Facebook posts about how AZ has "become insane."  - Liberals consider themselves "Worldly" and "non-materialistic" as well - Canada ( my family),  Costa Rica, Brazil, China , Australia, etc all start to look better to the looters- especially since they want to pretend they aren't like "typical Americans" and love the exotic, instead of being xenophobic and rigid like us bitter clingers.  (Of course they are the first to expect the foreign country to change to accommodate them)

The spirit of the Pilgrims, Puritans, roughnecks, and grasping gentry that built this nation cannot be rekindled. Culture changes too much. How many civilizations has China gone though in terms of rising and falling? Are the Chinese at all like they were in 1430 or in the 12th century under Genghis Khan? I don’t know. Were they less or more servile? More or less tough minded and stalwart?

Actually, in terms of culture- the Chinese have never been conquered. The conquerors always end up becoming Chinese. They are what I have heard termed a "center-culture" - they assume they are conquered because others wanted what they have, and they know they have it because of the way they live.  The cultures changes there, but it doesn't.  "Confucian by day, Taoist by night" as the saying goes. Confucius gave the people an incredible set of rules of interacting with one another. They were stupid and annoying, and the people lived with them, and broke them as needed, and adhered in their personal relationships to their own ethics - Taoist ethics. And as each new system was introduced the Chinese people would provide the appearance of compliance and then do  what they wanted. The have a patience in their culture that we lack. A confidence that resists the cultural corruption and wears down those trying to change it, rather than the inverse we have experienced here. So in short, this is a an awful example, and one that betrays a lot of ignorance on the part of the author.

Our culture, the traditional American culture has been under attack and it has been loosing.. largely because we are accommodating of differences. However I agree with the author - the key is censure. 

[Whites] hate the appearance of being mean and unfair more than they love their children, values, and desire to survive. What Christian community today will vehemently deny equal rights and discriminate against homosexuals and homosexuality with the force needed to suppress the depravity, unholiness, degeneracy, and corruption that comes with tolerating the perverse and perverting? ...  What Christian community will uphold the right of association, and thus allow anyone to discriminate however they please towards others in their private lives and business?

While using the term Whites and Christians apparently interchangeably is stupid,  this is the problem. Via Law and cultural attack, the liberal have robbed us of our right to censure the bad actors - and not just homosexuals. Those who we would have cut off from our charity, now have legal means of extracting it from us. . You may not discriminate against them in hiring or in group/club membership. You will not enforce laws against criminals. Ultimately that is what Gay Marriage is about - removing yet more barriers and protecting yet another class of sucker/looters from being cut off and marginalized by the majority.  Going Galt has become the only viable means of cutting them off, censuring them, and removing their influence from our lives.   The left thinks they have a right to respect, and try to enforce it by law.   But look how much our hearts here have hardened against them. It is happening elsewhere as well. The question is one of degree, and if that preference cascade forms in meaningful action - as it has in AZ where the people have decided to take Federal law and duties into their own hands.  As things get worse, and prosperity disappears, we can depend on human nature to move to protect what you have. We have tolerated the looter behavior and theft because we had plenty, more than any other human generation in history. With prosperity gone, the looters become more violent, and the reaction against them as well. Tribalism is, at its lowest level, a system of censure, and they have robbed our tribe of he ability to censure and exile those who don't live by our rules, while putting in place the systems to censure us - Bloomberg being a prime example.

When 90% of the people owned their own farms and businesses, who could threaten them with penury? Now, 90% work for others, institutions, corporations. It’s easy to terrify them with threats of permanent unemployment.[/url]

Which is why so many of us are choosing Galt. So we can't be so threatened. The Govt cheese is just a bonus on top for us, but they will mistake our taking it for dependence and therefore control. 

Thus, national rebellion of any kind requires the service of an army. The States and Federal governments have armies, but We the People do not. We have survivalists, white nationalist groups, neo-Nazis, some Tea Partiers, many disgusted and aggrieved service veterans and Constitutionalists who’d like to organize resistance and defiance of Fed and State authorities, but all who are essentially impotent without leadership, organization, money, arms, and allies (in the population at large and foreign support in acquiring weapons)[/url]

There are the people who become the Army - We all all stilling here waiting for the clarion call  - even if we  only hear it one by one on our own homesteads. I am personally resigned to that fate.  3 Million dug in, armed, bitter clingers, is an army, even if they fight alone. If each does his duty and kills ONE of the enemy before being eliminated, it still going to be a very costly war for them to fight.   
 I have said before the only way out of this storm now is through. The situation as we pass through as  the govt attempts to subdue us before and after the crash is going to be fluid and unpredictable. There is no sure course for us to follow, but the same is true for them, and that is the risk and the opportunity.  I think some sort of clarion call will come, probably in the succession of a State or States. I don't expect America as it has been to survive, but I think we have already come to that conclusion. The goal now is carving out a new place where freedom can thrive, and if that happens,  I am hopeful.  We know what would happen to the Blue States if left to their own- they will follow the fed down the debt hole. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that they will have to move to subdue us before the crash, and I do not think they are powerful enough for such an attempt- and I think that such will galvanize the resistance.  Perhaps the population is too apathetic as this guys suggests,  but I think the harder things get, the less apathetic the people will be. 

Times, they are a changing. Changing violently, and the people will change with them. I don't think anything is a foregone conclusion other than the first American republic is over.

[charlesoakwood]

My big fear in waiting for the opposition to show their hand (and oh, haven't they several times already?!) is finding my rights illegally revoked and my arms removed.

Your natural rights have been revoked but they have taken no physical
action against you.  As long as they have taken no physical action the
possibility of a return to a constitutional republic remains. You don't want
to blow that.  Patience, the answers are coming soon.
 

[Libertas]

My big fear in waiting for the opposition to show their hand (and oh, haven't they several times already?!) is finding my rights illegally revoked and my arms removed.

Your natural rights have been revoked but they have taken no physical
action against you.  As long as they have taken no physical action the
possibility of a return to a constitutional republic remains. You don't want
to blow that.  Patience, the answers are coming soon.
 

I understand that, but we cannot continue to allow rights to be swept away, otherwise the Brownshirts knocking on (in) your door will be getting physical while you protest "why all the violence, man?!"...I would contend that taking away our God-given rights is more than just a prelude to imminent physical harm.

Hey Weisshaupt, if that guy makes you look optimistic, I must be looking more pessimistic...I thought some of that scenario he outlined was rather hopeful in my opinion!

[Glock32]

Hey Weisshaupt, if that guy makes you look optimistic, I must be looking more pessimistic...I thought some of that scenario he outlined was rather hopeful in my opinion!

Same here!  In my view balkanization is a feature, not a bug.

[Libertas]

Yup, we should be so lucky.

[AmericanPatriot]

If we think the clash is inevitable, there are lessons needing learned.
Unlike the Founding, it won't be as simple as shouting "the Redcoats are coming" and the militia mustering to deter them.

Guerilla tactics such as the Viet Cong or French Resistance in WWII or the Mujahadeen  in Afghanistan against the Russians
Organizations  built as small cells; independent but loosely aware and able to coordinate.

They have major superiority in firepower and technology.
Drones and electronic surveillance are a couple examples.

I have never been in the military but I can learn the lessons of history.
Personally, I don't see a large chunk of the military joining Freedom.

Here's an off the cuff thought.
Can anything be learned from Falling Skies and is it an allegory for our real situation here?
You have a hodgepodge of untrained civilians joining together against a vastly superior force and holding their own.

[LadyVirginia]

Can't name it but I remember reading about it.
As I remember, the captors started out as nice
reasonable folks.

Stanford prison experiment in 1971

[Weisshaupt]

I have never been in the military but I can learn the lessons of history.
Personally, I don't see a large chunk of the military joining Freedom.
.

Using history as a guide, maybe not. However there aren't any Armies in history that were composed of volunteers who had known and enjoyed  a history of freedom, and perhaps that will make the difference.  Or perhaps not.  We are still bogged down in the sandbox, against a largely uneducated force. Outright control the Military  can achieve. Peace and Order, not so much - even with the superior arms and tech.  I still suspect that any freedom fighters there are  here will be assisted by ex-military and saboteurs in the ranks in neutralizing such advantages, if it comes down to fighting in the streets Not to mention the leftist elitist tendency to underestimate the commoners. . If 3% of us fight, we have an near overwhelming force. I suspect they will avoid an outright confrontation unless it goes down in such a way that they can use it to advance their agenda.
  

[Weisshaupt]

Hey Weisshaupt, if that guy makes you look optimistic, I must be looking more pessimistic...I thought some of that scenario he outlined was rather hopeful in my opinion!

Same here!  In my view balkanization is a feature, not a bug.

Given his unfinished novel, I am not sure he agrees. Balkanization after collapse is probably okay. The libtards will make every state they control look like California, and then we can just take territory as we need it from them. Providing a place like Detroit is worth capturing.  However if the Fed still exists in any meaningful way,  I suspect the Feds will fight it- and may win. Obama and pals won't mind giving part of the country to Russia or China if it keeps us from establishing a free state.

[AmericanPatriot]

However there aren't any Armies in history that were composed of volunteers who had known and enjoyed  a history of freedom, and perhaps that will make the difference

Maybe the Founding generation had enjoyed freedom.
They were pretty much left alone until King George's treasury needed to squeeze them

[Alphabet Soup]

Hey Weisshaupt, if that guy makes you look optimistic, I must be looking more pessimistic...I thought some of that scenario he outlined was rather hopeful in my opinion!

Same here!  In my view balkanization is a feature, not a bug.

Given his unfinished novel, I am not sure he agrees. Balkanization after collapse is probably okay. The libtards will make every state they control look like California, and then we can just take territory as we need it from them. Providing a place like Detroit is worth capturing.  However if the Fed still exists in any meaningful way,  I suspect the Feds will fight it- and may win. Obama and pals won't mind giving part of the country to Russia or China if it keeps us from establishing a free state.

Places like Detroit will most certainly be needed - where else are we gonna send the 'tards?

[Alphabet Soup]

Can't name it but I remember reading about it.
As I remember, the captors started out as nice
reasonable folks.

Stanford prison experiment in 1971

Thank you for finding that 

[Pandora]

Hey Weisshaupt, if that guy makes you look optimistic, I must be looking more pessimistic...I thought some of that scenario he outlined was rather hopeful in my opinion!

Same here!  In my view balkanization is a feature, not a bug.

Given his unfinished novel, I am not sure he agrees. Balkanization after collapse is probably okay. The libtards will make every state they control look like California, and then we can just take territory as we need it from them. Providing a place like Detroit is worth capturing.  However if the Fed still exists in any meaningful way,  I suspect the Feds will fight it- and may win. Obama and pals won't mind giving part of the country to Russia or China if it keeps us from establishing a free state.

Places like Detroit will most certainly be needed - where else are we gonna send the 'tards?

I was thinking about Detroit.  The productive have fled, the dregs are left and there aren't many of them at that, relatively speaking.  What if they could be relocated and the productive allowed to rebuild?  Would it be worth it geographically and resource-wise?

[AlanS]

Forgive me, but moral authority?!  Whose?!  They're goose-stepping us into submission for fear of taking the first stand.  God dammit, Soup.  Enough is enough already.  Do we just walk peaceably into the railcars because they haven't fired on us?

I understand your frustration, but the question that comes to my mind is: Where to start?

I understand that, but we cannot continue to allow rights to be swept away, otherwise the Brownshirts knocking on (in) your door will be getting physical while you protest "why all the violence, man?!"...I would contend that taking away our God-given rights is more than just a prelude to imminent physical harm.

Once that happens, you can bend over and kiss your ass goodbye. It's way too late.