Topic: Slime bag numbers guy, predicts Romney win! Provides some hope.

[ChrstnHsbndFthr]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/09/14/why_romney_will_win_115452.html

<But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.

For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.

And then there is the enthusiasm gap. All recent polling suggests that Republican- and GOP-leaning Independents are 13 points more enthusiastic and following the race more closely than their Democratic counterparts. If the grassroots do their job, this will yield a stronger Romney vote.

Finally, when every poll among every sample has Obama below 50 percent of the vote, it is most likely that the undecided have, in fact, decided not to back his re-election.>

There is more and the article is worth reading....just keep your toes under wraps.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/09/14/why_romney_will_win_115452.html

[Glock32]

NBC, on the other hand, is all but calling the election for the SCoaMF. They say he is leading in the swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.

[ChrstnHsbndFthr]

But to crawl out of the statistical weeds, let's examine the state of the partisan dialogue. Former President Bill Clinton made a huge blunder when he accepted the Republican challenge and flatly -- and loudly -- asserted that we are, in fact, better off than we were four years ago. Polls show that only about 33 percent of voters agree, while close to half do not see the world that way.

Finally, both parties seemed happily to embrace the same formulation of the difference between them. Both agreed that the Republican Party is based on a philosophy of individual responsibility. Obama articulated it as, "You're on your own." Republicans put it differently: "We'll get government off your back." Democrats said theirs was a party that would lend you a hand.

Gallup measured these two options, and voters chose "leave me alone" over "lend me a hand" by 54-35.

[ChrstnHsbndFthr]

NBC, on the other hand, is all but calling the election for the SCoaMF. They say he is leading in the swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.

If you are nothing but a cheer leader for a failed president, it is somewhat in the job description to shake your pom-poms for him no matter what....but, facts are stubborn things. And the facts point to a bad economy....an unhappy electorate.....a depressed economy.....a bad foreign policy...increased poverty.......and a reduction in buying power. Why would anyone in their right mind vote for this man...again? And his statistical analysis is correct. We have a historical record to look at. The incumbent is known. And the undecided almost NEVER choose the incumbent in the end.

[Predator Don]

NBC, on the other hand, is all but calling the election for the SCoaMF. They say he is leading in the swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.

This election will be one of the worst in regards to the news media's attempts to suppress the conservative  vote. I remember vividly the call of Florida for gore, calling the election over around 4-5 pm, while the pacific time zones were still voting.

It will be much worse this year....much worse.im also preparing for the riots if Romney wins.

[Glock32]

Heck they were calling Florida before its precincts in the panhandle, in the Central time zone, were even closed. They clearly do everything in their power to manipulate things to the advantage of Democrats. It's honestly disgusting. In whatever comeuppance is eventually distributed, the media deserve the lion's share of it.

[ChrstnHsbndFthr]

http://www.nationaljournal.com//columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-obama-s-a-good-bet-to-win-20120913?print=true

Here is the other side of the coin from a respected, though I think slightly liberal pollster and analyst. He is one of the wise men about electoral politcs and makes VERY good predictions every election.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-obama-s-a-good-bet-to-win-20120913?print=true

[charlesoakwood]

Riots?  Target rich environment?

Again, will Romney win by a greater margin than Reagan?
That's the real question.

[LadyVirginia]

I did a poll today-- for a congressional candidate (the dem by the type and phrasing of the questions)--normally I screen my calls by I was expecting a call and I didn't want it to go to the machine. 

Couple things came to mind -- the person answering has to be able to understand the question; the person asking can to some extent influence the answer; the format and style of questions can influence your subsequent answers and perhaps persuade you to change them as you go along.

I'm not stupid and I had to wonder how the stupid people could answer some of those questions. For some of them I lost interest in listening then for the answer when asked which candidate I preferred for that issue I said the republican candidate. (I won't be voting for the repub--he's worse than RINO--but I don't want the local dems thinking their guy has a shot either).

A couple of times my answer didn't fit with the choices and it seemed she picked one for me she thought matched it.

At then end I could see how if you weren't well versed in the issues or candidates that if you weren't for the dem at the beginning of the survey you might answer at the end that you liked that candidate and you would or might vote for him.

(I also noticed how some issues were represented as negative when describing the repub position.  I went to the dem's website later and he holds the same views!)

[Sectionhand]

Young liberal college students and negroes got unusually excited in 2008 for the first time in many years . But what generally happens is after their wild expectations don't materialize the old apathy sets in again . So it will be , I believe , in 2012 . Y.A. ( Youth Apathy ) and N.A. ( Negro Apathy ) are dependably predictable . 

[Sectionhand]

NBC, on the other hand, is all but calling the election for the SCoaMF. They say he is leading in the swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.

Has anyone noticed that since Holder's justice department began investigating the Gallup organization several weeks back that Stymie's numbers in the Gallup Polls have dramatically reversed , showing him with a marked lead over Romney ?

[Libertas]

Heck they were calling Florida before its precincts in the panhandle, in the Central time zone, were even closed. They clearly do everything in their power to manipulate things to the advantage of Democrats. It's honestly disgusting. In whatever comeuppance is eventually distributed, the media deserve the lion's share of it.

It will be several orders of magnitude worse this time around...the best thing that could happen on election night is for all the libiot networks to have their systems hacked and we have 12 hours of static on every TV channel and every radio station...

 

[Libertas]

NBC, on the other hand, is all but calling the election for the SCoaMF. They say he is leading in the swing states of Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.

Has anyone noticed that since Holder's justice department began investigating the Gallup organization several weeks back that Stymie's numbers in the Gallup Polls have dramatically reversed , showing him with a marked lead over Romney ?

Yes.

Now, move along.  If someone knocks your door...   

[Predator Don]

Heck they were calling Florida before its precincts in the panhandle, in the Central time zone, were even closed. They clearly do everything in their power to manipulate things to the advantage of Democrats. It's honestly disgusting. In whatever comeuppance is eventually distributed, the media deserve the lion's share of it.

It will be several orders of magnitude worse this time around...the best thing that could happen on election night is for all the libiot networks to have their systems hacked and we have 12 hours of static on every TV channel and every radio station...

 


Hell, we already have networks calling it for obummer. Why wait for a vote. It will be bad this year.

[Glock32]

I've noticed these "That's all folks! This one's in the bag!" polls seem to come out right on the heels of particularly bad or embarrassing events for Boy Wonder. Of course their intent is to manipulate public opinion and dispirit conservatives, and I think that is why they time it to coincide with all those things that should be having the exact opposite effect. It's a psychological tactic to force you to on the one hand see all these disastrous events, yet on the other have fresh news that Obama is wrapping this election up already. The two do not compute, the result is intellectual consternation; and on the chance that the polls are at all accurate, a sense of despair.

[Pandora]

I don't believe the polls are accurate no matter what the pollsters reveal about their "evenhanded" methodology (see the recent turnaround in Gallup's results), and because I know people are lying to them, when they agree to be polled at all, and in the case of ambiguous answers, use those to help skew the results.  Then there's the issue of whether or not they're getting cell-phone people's responses at all, as opposed to land-line people.

Two weeks ago, someone called wanting to talk about a conservative Republican running for Congress here albeit in another district.  I wasn't sure who the candidate was, so after listening to the pollster's set-up spiel, I asked the candidate's party affiliation.  Then, after a pause, I told her I wasn't having this conversation with her and hung up.  Now, how do you think she spun that?

[trapeze]

I wish that I could be confident in something, anything that comes out of the mouth of Dick Morris. I have watched him for many, many years now and I could be wrong but my impression is that he is incorrect in his prognostications more than he is correct.

What's irritating for me is that just about everything that he did say in this editorial is something that I have said or thought recently. Makes me question my whole point of view.

[benb61]

I wish that I could be confident in something, anything that comes out of the mouth of Dick Morris. I have watched him for many, many years now and I could be wrong but my impression is that he is incorrect in his prognostications more than he is correct.

What's irritating for me is that just about everything that he did say in this editorial is something that I have said or thought recently. Makes me question my whole point of view.

I find Morris to be overly optimistic some times.

[charlesoakwood]

...but always entertaining.

[Glock32]

If Obama wins, I honestly don't know what to do. It will be over at that point. At that point I honestly think Canada begins to look more attractive. They have a bit more historical baggage with socialism, but they at least seem to have gotten the memo and are trying to move in the right direction. And if I'm to be stuck with the wonders of gubmint medicine, I'd probably rather deal with it in a larger country with only 10% our population.