Topic: Just commodities

[Libertas]

Only an imbecile could have ever thought they would cave to the weak demands of a dementia-riddled puppet who needs constant naps and diaper changes...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/opec-balks-bidens-demands-more-oil-production

Winter's coming...

[Libertas]

All PM's are up...only metal seeing some softening is copper...and again that could be temporary.

Gold looks interesting...

Yes, gold has been range-bound, but the range is getting smaller. While swings of 5% in a matter of days were common as recently as last summer, that volatility has cooled off. Gold still moves up and down in price, but the swings are much more compact.

The central tendency is still $1,800 per ounce, but the swings are more tightly bunched between $1,750 and $1,850 (again, with a few exceptions). That’s a 5.5% band to replace the prior 11.0% band.

We’re also seeing a pattern of lower highs and higher lows as compression continues. That’s a technical pattern called a pennant because it looks like a sports pennant if you draw converging lines through the highs and lows.

A pennant is a setup for a breakout. The breakout can occur in either direction, but it’s more common for the breakout to continue the trend that existed before the consolidation.

Whether we take the $1,685 price on March 30, 2021, the $1,725 price on Aug. 9, 2021, or the $1,722 price on Sept. 29, 2021, it’s clear that this pennant formed in the wake of an uptrend. This suggests that the breakout will be to the upside and it will occur soon.

There’s a run of fundamental data that supports this technical view.

The first piece of evidence is that the real price of physical bullion today is not $1,864 per ounce (according to the COMEX gold futures contract price), but closer to $2,000 per ounce according to my gold bullion dealer sources.

The difference between the two prices is about 8%.

The problem with this pricing method is that a normal dealer commission is around 2.5%. Any commission higher than that is not really a commission. It’s a reflection of scarcity, delivery delays and other logistical issues in getting actual physical bullion instead of paper gold contracts.

In other words, $1,925 per ounce is the real price of real physical bullion. Everything else is just paper.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-breakout-imminent

And they go on to say Russia and others have been buyers recently, basically pointing a finger at them for that 5.5% scarcity tax.

North of $2k has always been a trip-line in recent years...but, given inflation...perhaps that is a bit more north now too, eh?  Going over $2k would raise eyebrows...but a move around $2.4-2.5K might gain some momentum.

[Libertas]

Another round?

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cold-snap-triggers-plunge-texas-natgas-output

[ToddF]

Nothing unusual the next 10 days in Texas.  In fact, a little warmer than usual.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/110a124808308e4fc03ee2b75754a7e06e9334b6d23d6fa317f1bb84b5f8a65e#detailIndex5

[Libertas]

But TPTB have announced a crisis and so a crisis is coming...

ClownWorld

[Libertas]

Oh oh, sum ting wong...



https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/coal-prices-rise-worlds-largest-coal-exporter-bans-exports

...dirty-coal burning Chi-Com's in for a rough ride.

[Libertas]

Thought we had something on this but I cannot find any reference to it...I recall it coming up now and then, had some sabotage issues...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tapi-pipeline-finally-ready-go

...it's totally within what is arguably the most crazy-ass lands on the planet...so good/bad/indifferent whatever happens happens...

[Libertas]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/watch-oil-production-ship-explodes-nigerias-coast

Accident?  Sabotage? 

[Pandora]

Had to bring "fresh" salmon back to BJ's today.  It was bad and I didn't find out til I broke the plastic on the packaging.  Whew!  Judging by the reaction of the customer service chickie, this is an ongoing problem because of the truckers hired to fill the shortage.

[Libertas]

Oh, yeah...

Bummer.  Good point though, need to be careful out there.

[Libertas]

Well, with nearly-useless sanctions by JoeFraud et al...should make things a lot more volatile...

Kolanovic writes that "geopolitical escalation over the last few days materially increased the risk of further aggravating the energy and commodity crisis developing over the past 2 years" a crisis which as recently as November Kolanovic said didn't exist, because as he calculated in November, for oil to be considered expensive, it "would need to be trading at ~$115/bbl (we say this is conservative because we have excluded “expensive assets” such as central bank balance sheets and Nasdaq, which would imply a median oil price in the $300-$500/bbl range)." Apparently, three months later oil is suddenly expensive again.

In any case, in taking a page out of the Kolanovic playbook of old where one could actually learn something instead of merely be bombarded with childish BTFD sermons that always skirted around the major risk factors and accentuated whatever the conventional wisdom bull thesis du jour war, today the JPM quant writes that "potential trade disruptions of oil, gas, grains and metals is now a significant risk for investments and the real economy" and that "portfolio managers should hedge this risk by increasing allocations to commodities, energy and materials. These allocations would serve as a hedge to inflation, geopolitical risks, and COVID reopening in what we see as a continued cycle of economic expansion. Although commodity inventories have contracted sharply, China’s share is abundant." Some more details:

The world is short Commodities. China is not. Global tradeable commodity inventories have contracted sharply over the past six months, declining in aggregate by 25% from 64 days of consumption at the peak in April 2020 to 48 today, a five year low. This drove the BCOM up 85% during the same period, to a multi-year high. While tradeable commodity stocks are critically low, it is important to acknowledge the abundance of available inventories in leading commodity consumer and importer China, to draw upon as required, which can influence import demand. China currently holds an estimated 84% of global copper, 70% of corn, 51% of wheat, 40% of soybeans, 26% of crude oil and 22% of aluminum inventories, according to our sources. Inclusive of China, global commodity inventories are at about 62 days of consumption, down 18% since the April 2020 peak

Yes China's share may be abundant, but the US is not China, where "low levels of tradable inventories have left us with few shock absorbers, which could drive nonlinear commodity price increases, particularly in light of our base case of a further rise in geopolitical tensions." Wait... when did that become the base case?  We don't expect an answer, nor do we expect Kolanovic to remain bearish...

Basically...risks are stacking up.

Trouble in alt-energy begins...

Soaring material costs, supply chain constraints, and intensified price competition are some of the reasons why LG Electronics Inc. will shutter its solar factory in Huntsville, Alabama, according to a company press release.

"The decision comes as uncertainties in the global solar panel business continue to increase due to a variety of contributing factors, including the intensification of price competition and the rising cost of raw materials," LG said.

Soaring commodity prices have sent solar-grade polysilicon prices up more than 550% in the last two years. Polysilicon is a critical raw material in producing solar photovoltaic cells for panels.  Other commodity prices have risen, along with soaring labor and freight costs have added to LG's margin compression where it appears solar production has become uneconomical.  The plant was opened in 2019 with 550 megawatts of annual panel output. Panel production is expected to wind down next month and officially shut down at the end of June. Around 160 employees and 60 contract workers will be fired or shifted to other LG manufacturing units.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/lg-electronics-shutters-alabama-solar-factory-amid-rising-commodity-costs

Just wait till the rare-earth shortage really hits...thanks to our corrupt illegitimate government making our enemies holding much of these reserves more hostile towards us.  Brilliant, eh?  Domestic destruction within and without!

 


H/T-CTH

[ToddF]

Oil just a shade under $100 this morning.  Thanks Brandon.

 

[Libertas]

With the Rus invasion back on all markets are skittish this morning...and puppet FJB et al can only make everything worse...

Oil hit a high of 105...

And, watch shipping fuel...it's high, and likely about to go even higher...

The number of inflationary inputs is staggering...and if idiots go for price controls shortages will go parabolic!  Then watch that depseration play out...and the expected martial law that is the goal behind imposing them!

[Libertas]

H/T-WZ

https://www.weaselzippers.us/479622-tom-cotton-why-dont-we-sanction-russias-energy-sector-and-lift-all-restrictions-on-u-s-energy/

Dude...where you been?  These people are about destroying America...not making it strong & self-reliant!

 

[ToddF]

Oil up another $8 overnight, into the $110's.  Apparently the demented child molester's promise to "do something" hasn't kicked in, yet.

[Libertas]

I think he meant "doo" and it's some poor interns duty to handle that "doo"...

Meanwhile...

If the cratering demand for Russian oil continues the rest of the year...OPEC and the rest stand to make a literal killing...with Brent possibly threatening the $200/bbl level...wouldn't that just be special?

The sane should be brow-beating the unsane 24/7/365 the blow away all domestic oil & gas regs and blow open all production and distribution!  As it is, we only get a limp-wristed "oh, please domestic producers, produce more" while leaving all the hostile regs and obstacles in place...

Oil & Gas concerns should tell this illegitimate government to go screw itself!

And this...

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/commodities-set-biggest-weekly-gain-1974-stagflation-fears-emerge

...has Powell cornered. 

[patentlymn]

I think he meant "doo" and it's some poor interns duty to handle that "doo"...

Meanwhile...

If the cratering demand for Russian oil continues the rest of the year...OPEC and the rest stand to make a literal killing...with Brent possibly threatening the $200/bbl level...wouldn't that just be special?

The sane should be brow-beating the unsane 24/7/365 the blow away all domestic oil & gas regs and blow open all production and distribution!  As it is, we only get a limp-wristed "oh, please domestic producers, produce more" while leaving all the hostile regs and obstacles in place...

Oil & Gas concerns should tell this illegitimate government to go screw itself!

And this...

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/commodities-set-biggest-weekly-gain-1974-stagflation-fears-emerge

...has Powell cornered.

the cratering demand for Russian oil continues the rest of the year.

I had not heard that. Who is buying less? I thought that countries were afraid that Russia would cut off gas and oil.

[Libertas]

I think he meant "doo" and it's some poor interns duty to handle that "doo"...

Meanwhile...

If the cratering demand for Russian oil continues the rest of the year...OPEC and the rest stand to make a literal killing...with Brent possibly threatening the $200/bbl level...wouldn't that just be special?

The sane should be brow-beating the unsane 24/7/365 the blow away all domestic oil & gas regs and blow open all production and distribution!  As it is, we only get a limp-wristed "oh, please domestic producers, produce more" while leaving all the hostile regs and obstacles in place...

Oil & Gas concerns should tell this illegitimate government to go screw itself!

And this...

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/commodities-set-biggest-weekly-gain-1974-stagflation-fears-emerge

...has Powell cornered.

the cratering demand for Russian oil continues the rest of the year.

I had not heard that. Who is buying less? I thought that countries were afraid that Russia would cut off gas and oil.

The Ukraine thread at this time stamp - « Reply #524 on: March 02, 2022, 12:57:34 PM »

I had a link about Germany doing a 180 by abandoning NS2 and embracing nuclear...and this link -

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/big-oil-turning-its-back-russia

It's why I said JoeFraud considering energy sanctions on Russia now...all American co's stopped Russian oil purchases on their own...

And on my previous post about telling JoeFraud to pound sand domestically...

https://thefederalist.com/2022/03/04/until-joe-biden-lets-u-s-oil-freely-flow-hes-complicit-in-putins-war-crimes/

I have no problem kicking a loser in his talking points.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/house-democrats-block-bill-to-approve-keystone-xl-pipeline-promote-american-energy-independence-from-russia_4312298.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=TheLibertyDaily

Or kicking his Marxist pals in the same place...repeatedly.

https://www.weaselzippers.us/479821-biden-transportation-secretary-buttigieg-buying-oil-from-iran-is-on-the-table/

And I would kill plans to by Mahdi Death Cult oil no matter what.

Consistent message - NO FORIEGN OIL, we are not Eurotards...remove all restrictions domestically or suck it and enjoy the wrath of the people!

Period, should be no other messages until the Marxists cave completely. 



 

[Libertas]

Speaking of sucking it...

https://www.weaselzippers.us/479859-san-francisco-first-american-city-to-hit-5-gasoline/

[paulh]

Yeah, we just went to + $4.00