Author Topic: Just commodities  (Read 131175 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #380 on: September 18, 2012, 01:48:59 PM »
I think the more sensible part of this posting is towards the end...


•Once banks are deemed to be sufficiently de-leveraged through debt monetization, we believe central banks will begin monetizing assets as a means of explicitly devaluing their currencies. As we have argued, the asset of choice will be the only monetary asset already held by global treasury ministries and central banks and the one with recent precedent collateralizing global currencies – gold.
•The policy-administered currency devaluation we have envisioned would involve a central bank publicly tendering for gold at an increased exchange rate (i.e. price). For example, the Fed would purchase gold with newly created US dollars, which would bring the ratio of USD-denominated credit-to-base money back into line, thereby de-leveraging the system. (This inflation would increase prices and wages relative to outstanding debt balances, greatly reducing the burden of debt repayment.) Global currencies might be re-pegged to the US dollar which would in turn be exchangeable for gold at the higher price, as per the Bretton Woods system. Of course, other central banks might try to make their currencies exchangeable directly into gold at another exchange rate. (We await the arbitrage.)
•Were a USD devaluation and re-pegging to occur as of the end of 2014, following 2 ¼ years of $40 billion monthly MBS debt monetization, we estimate our Shadow Gold Price would approximate $15,000/ounce. (The SGP divides the quantity of USD base money by the quantity of US official gold holdings, as per the Bretton Woods monetary regime.) Over the weekend, Bank of America analysts implied USD base money inflation would increase much more than the Fed announced, to about $5 trillion by the end of 2014. This figure would imply an SGP a bit over $19,000/oz.

We are often asked when we see our scenario playing out. Our answer has always been twofold: first, current conditions and policy responses confirm it is playing out now; second, it is impossible to say when the parabolic “catch-up” phase gets underway because that depends on the interplay between the general public’s understanding of the forces behind consumer goods and service price inflation, the pressures on real returns in most financial assets, and the reflexive political pressures and policy responses to them.

Nevertheless, we suspect last week’s events, in which both the ECB and Fed committed to open-ended base money creation – against a geopolitical environment in which China’s USD reserves are being held astride an increasingly dynamic domestic political regime and in which the petro-dollar regime of the past forty years seems under attack – may be the catalyst that begins to raise public awareness of the link between monetary inflation and price inflation.

Inflation indexes such as the CPI are contemporaneous indicators of price level changes. If our analysis is right, very little capital will be properly positioned when consumer price indexes begin to flare. The relatively tiny current universal allocation towards perceived “inflation hedges” seems to bear this out.

We believe significant real Alpha will be generated by those properly positioned first for significant monetary inflation and monetary regime change, and second for significant price inflation. We believe nominal returns using this sequencing will be substantial (far greater in fact than were available to short positions in sub-prime loans in 2007).


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/perspectives-golds-parabolic-catch-phase

Anyway you cut it the PTBs are making all the wrong moves, so it cannot be more plain that real assets will soon be a scarce item...then, look out!
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #381 on: September 18, 2012, 11:00:34 PM »

We're not in a dive and we've not hit stall speed yet.
Romney, with help from a conservative congress could
level this thing off and head us forward toward the
excellence we once were in covenant and commerce.  
                                                                        ::crusader::

But for the moment:
[blockquote]
Deutsche Bank Looking For $2,000/Oz Gold In 1H 2013
Tuesday September 18, 2012 11:55 AM

Deutsche Bank sees gold exceeding $2,000 an ounce in the first half of 2013. The bank cites growth in the supply of fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar. “When one has accumulated too much debt, while the right thing to do is pay it back, the easiest thing to do is default and hope your creditor has a short memory,” Deutsche Bank says. “We believe the Western economies in general are biased towards the latter, whether they will admit it or not. We expect a soft default will likely be the preferable course of action; a managed form of currency depreciation through various stages of quantitative easing or successive bailouts by central banks of the banking system. This ‘easy’ scenario is good for gold, in our view.


Longer Term Question for Gold – Thomas Barnet   Obviously he has no SHTHF thoughts; however, there are some interesting observations. [about 3:30] "middle class is the same the world over, it has unlimited demands on mobility and electricity"   [about 4:30]  "betting long and bullish on arible land".   His eyes though, seem to be giving him trouble and it's not on the ceiling. ::)[/blockquote]



charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #382 on: September 19, 2012, 01:27:37 AM »

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #383 on: September 19, 2012, 07:17:58 AM »

This makes me feel warm all over:



Yeah, these stories crop up from time to time, it is only the poor economic times we are in (and times when PMs are rising) that they get more attention.  I am having a hard time believing this scam was not perpetrated at the source, but the full chain of custody has to be thoroughly investigated to know for sure.

Anyway, not like this is any different than what the Fed/Treas is doing with currency, same scam, just easier to do with paper than metal.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5731
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #384 on: September 19, 2012, 09:24:00 AM »

This makes me feel warm all over:



Yeah, these stories crop up from time to time, it is only the poor economic times we are in (and times when PMs are rising) that they get more attention.  I am having a hard time believing this scam was not perpetrated at the source, but the full chain of custody has to be thoroughly investigated to know for sure.

Anyway, not like this is any different than what the Fed/Treas is doing with currency, same scam, just easier to do with paper than metal.

I am with CO. Warm and Fuzzy.  This was a reputable dealer. Hollow out a bar and fill it, and then reseal it?  I doubt it. A very professional organization did it? Hell yeah- I would suspect that Pamp Suisse manufactured these. Perhaps even at Government request.  Now I wonder if I should drill into my 1oz bars. I guess they are too small to be worth faking? Of course at $1700/oz,  isn't that worth it?

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #385 on: September 19, 2012, 11:24:13 AM »

This makes me feel warm all over:



Yeah, these stories crop up from time to time, it is only the poor economic times we are in (and times when PMs are rising) that they get more attention.  I am having a hard time believing this scam was not perpetrated at the source, but the full chain of custody has to be thoroughly investigated to know for sure.

Anyway, not like this is any different than what the Fed/Treas is doing with currency, same scam, just easier to do with paper than metal.

I am with CO. Warm and Fuzzy.  This was a reputable dealer. Hollow out a bar and fill it, and then reseal it?  I doubt it. A very professional organization did it? Hell yeah- I would suspect that Pamp Suisse manufactured these. Perhaps even at Government request.  Now I wonder if I should drill into my 1oz bars. I guess they are too small to be worth faking? Of course at $1700/oz,  isn't that worth it?


The smaller bars/coins are probably more difficult to do and I think these guys doing this are into grabbing more volume up front.  Really good theives tend to think bigger first and work down, only a small time hood thinks small from the get-go.  Does make you wonder about what is good and who can be trusted.  And from that standpoint big gubmint conspiracies make more sense...as only an insider could really see a need to back up their bogus paper with something more than ink.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #386 on: September 19, 2012, 11:50:55 PM »

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #387 on: September 20, 2012, 06:55:30 AM »
Things are looking golden...but not for fiat...
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5731
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #388 on: September 20, 2012, 10:25:03 PM »
Ann Barnhardt on the Tungsten filled "gold"

Quote
So not only is gold bullion "rehypothecated" many, many times over in ETFs and COMEX contracts, but the stuff that is being rehypothecated is actually $1.50 per ounce Tungsten. Right here in the good 'ol US of A.

In case you are curious, the work-around on this is simple. Don't buy bullion. Buy coins. Old coins. Minted back when men weren't all moral degenerates and governments could actually be trusted. Bullion is a pain in the keister anyway. Coins are practical, and far, far more difficult to debase than bullion.

Or just buy farmground.

charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #389 on: September 20, 2012, 11:13:56 PM »

"Or just by farmground" 
Yeah, the vid in this http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,913.msg77362.html#msg77362 post addressed that.  I stepped on it with that tungsten post.

I'm not sure that buying old coins, that usually come with a
numismatic value, is a better buy than currently minted.
It appears that the mint is cranking out new Eagles as fast as it can.
No more Pandas or Mapleleaf's though.


Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #390 on: September 21, 2012, 07:48:15 AM »

"Or just by farmground"  
Yeah, the vid in this http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,913.msg77362.html#msg77362 post addressed that.  I stepped on it with that tungsten post.

I'm not sure that buying old coins, that usually come with a
numismatic value, is a better buy than currently minted.
It appears that the mint is cranking out new Eagles as fast as it can.
No more Pandas or Mapleleaf's though.



Got that right.

I think if you load up on silver bullion (1oz) that is still OK, I don't think the grifters have gone low-value/high-volume on their scams, and junk silver too.  I think those are the safer and more economical option right now.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Online ToddF

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5812
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #391 on: September 21, 2012, 08:47:17 AM »
As long as you can get them near bullion value, from a reputable source, and slabbed by a major authenticator (PCGS, NGC, ANACS)

And never from a Chinese seller on Ebay!

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #392 on: September 24, 2012, 07:41:46 AM »
As long as you can get them near bullion value, from a reputable source, and slabbed by a major authenticator (PCGS, NGC, ANACS)

And never from a Chinese seller on Ebay!

Or a freaking Rooskie!

More debased gold -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-23/gold-counterfeiting-goes-viral-10-tungsten-filled-gold-bars-are-discovered-manhattan

There are a number of things going on here that do not pass the smell test - discrepancies in the photos etc, and goingback to the original story an obvious question - wtf drills out their 10oz gold bar on a suspicion?

Anyway, no doubt the hawkers of these devices will experience an up-tick in sales -

http://www.goldcoinbalance.com/

But seriously, if this is a coordinated effort by one or more producers to cornhole customers, I find it difficult to beleive they've bothered to corrupt 1oz & lower bullion or coins?  They'd be shut down, jailed and never seen again.

I am by no means a conspiracy nut, but I am starting to sense this is more an effort to spread panic in the gold market in an effort to cap rising prices due to all the currency debasement and wonton other Neo-Keynesian efforts going on globally.  The question then becomes "Who stand to benefit?" and if the answer is the central banks then we should closely monitor gold supplies and who is getting what!
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5731
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #393 on: September 24, 2012, 09:26:15 AM »

But seriously, if this is a coordinated effort by one or more producers to cornhole customers, I find it difficult to beleive they've bothered to corrupt 1oz & lower bullion or coins?  They'd be shut down, jailed and never seen again.


Not if the purpose was to shunt that gold to a central govt - the govt already allows short sale of gold and silver with no consequence. Why should they not allow those sellers to back up their contracts with counterfeit bars?  That way they get the added benefit of adding Fear, Uncertainty and doubt to the market ( lowering prices)  while allowing their stooges to keep prices low with shorts while fulfilling the contract that actually take delivery.  IN the meantime any real gold is provided to the host govt, probably at a premium over spot- a premium of course paid with tax payer money and borrowed fiat.

All complete conjecture, and I have no evidence. Merely pointing out that if a conspiracy does exist, it mostly likely includes the central banks. When a single Oounce of gold commands $1700-1800, yes, it is absolutely worth making coins with $2 of tungsten in them.

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #394 on: September 24, 2012, 11:33:58 AM »

But seriously, if this is a coordinated effort by one or more producers to cornhole customers, I find it difficult to believe they've bothered to corrupt 1oz & lower bullion or coins?  They'd be shut down, jailed and never seen again.


Not if the purpose was to shunt that gold to a central govt - the govt already allows short sale of gold and silver with no consequence. Why should they not allow those sellers to back up their contracts with counterfeit bars?  That way they get the added benefit of adding Fear, Uncertainty and doubt to the market ( lowering prices)  while allowing their stooges to keep prices low with shorts while fulfilling the contract that actually take delivery.  IN the meantime any real gold is provided to the host govt, probably at a premium over spot- a premium of course paid with tax payer money and borrowed fiat.

All complete conjecture, and I have no evidence. Merely pointing out that if a conspiracy does exist, it mostly likely includes the central banks. When a single Oounce of gold commands $1700-1800, yes, it is absolutely worth making coins with $2 of tungsten in them.

I guess I was looking at it from a purely retail and traditional business point of view.  If in fact the scenario is as you outline then the everybody has been cornholed and every government and every institution on the planet is in dire need of violent overthrow.  Two points argue against and grand conspiracy - 1) That many people cannot keep a secret that long (usually somebody blurts a drunken confession to a hooker, somebody has a severe attack of conscious, anonymous leak, etc) and perhaps more importantly 2) it is self-defeating to inject too much concern into holders...if everybody inspects their stuff and the debasement is that widespread...good luck trying to contain all the riots, the markets will implode, panics, runs...BITS!  (Not that I have a problem with that reaction...)
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5731
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #395 on: September 24, 2012, 12:01:01 PM »
I guess I was looking at it from a purely retail and traditional business point of view.  If in fact the scenario is as you outline then the everybody has been cornholed and every government and every institution on the planet is in dire need of violent overthrow.  Two points argue against and grand conspiracy - 1) That many people cannot keep a secret that long (usually somebody blurts a drunken confession to a hooker, somebody has a severe attack of conscious, anonymous leak, etc) and perhaps more importantly 2) it is self-defeating to inject too much concern into holders...if everybody inspects their stuff and the debasement is that widespread...good luck trying to contain all the riots, the markets will implode, panics, runs...BITS!  (Not that I have a problem with that reaction...)

The largest bit of evidence is those gold bars. Those were not hollowed out by a 3rd party. They were manufactured that way. Someone could be buying legit PAMP Suisse bars, melting them down and then manufacturing and counterfeiting the stamp and SN on the bar,  but even if that were true, I would suspect the New York Dealers buy directly from PAMP and there is no middle man. If there is a middle man, it should be easy to detect the source, and clamp them down, and its in the best interest of all gold dealers to do so.  I will be very surprised if there is more than one middle man involved.  When you ship gold in large quantities, you do it through as few parties as possible for exactly this sort of situation.  I personally think these bars were manufactured by PAMP themselves. Maybe they were menat to go to Ft KNOX or some other govt treasury as a fake, and got mis-shipped.. or perhaps they were sold deliberately in their own form of paper shorts - call it tungsten shorting.

Some guy drilled into his gold bar - perhaps because he had run into a person of conscience or the hooker who took the confession. Or perhaps its a separate plan to discredit gold, but something in the way that the PAMP Suisse guy reacted in the interview makes me suspect otherwise. He seemed to have little concern that someone was counterfeiting his product, apparently with legit SNs, and seemed to have no plan to counter what should be considered a huge threat to the trust they have built with consumers.


Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #396 on: September 24, 2012, 12:06:38 PM »
I guess the only questions remaining are what will they find out and will whatever it is that gets reported to us be real or bullsh*t?
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #397 on: October 02, 2012, 12:55:19 AM »

Is it the Corzine  or the Obama effect?


PFG Forex and Phyzz Metals Accounts Raped 1
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - October 1, AD 2012 8:46 PM MST
Good grief, this is awful. But not surprising. And look who is doing the raping . . . JP Morgan with an assist by RBS.

Just to be clear, what this means is that people who had CASH FOREX (not FOREX futures, but people who were trading the actual currencies themselves) and people who were trading PHYSICAL precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium) through PFG are having 100% of their accounts permanently confiscated. Imagine that. JP Morgan confiscating bullion. I'm shocked. Knock me over with a feather. The next thing you're going to tell me is that the Rule of Law no longer exists and that the Republic is dead - overthrown in a neo-Stalinist putsch. ...

Never a dull moment as waves from rising water erodes our foundations from the bottom and steals our money from the top.


Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 63653
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #398 on: October 02, 2012, 07:11:32 AM »
Wait...

I thought gold wasn't money...only fiat currency is money...?

These Neo-Keynesian's really need to come with a warning label, eh?

Hmmm...not giving me warm fuzzy feelings over what may come next...

I sense the time may be nigh to divest and run!
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Predator Don

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 4576
Re: Just commodities
« Reply #399 on: October 02, 2012, 07:57:38 AM »
Wait...

I thought gold wasn't money...only fiat currency is money...?

These Neo-Keynesian's really need to come with a warning label, eh?

Hmmm...not giving me warm fuzzy feelings over what may come next...

I sense the time may be nigh to divest and run!


Still in the market...but I'm watching it closely.....gotta be ready to run.
I'm not always engulfed in scandals, but when I am, I make sure I blame others.