Topic: The Battle over East vs West (Russia vs Europe) continues in Ukraine

[patentlymn]

[Libertas]

Yeah, got that one too, I have a slew...

Where the world is at -





...and where any "survivors" will be headed...

[Libertas]

I like VDH, as a result of his many decades of researching and writing he tends to have a historical sweep to his articles...and this one is no different...

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/can-ukraine-ever-win

...and folks can quibble on this or that...but in general I find his reasoning sound, mostly when I disagree with him it is because he ties things off in a rosier way than I would...I favor scenarios and leaving it to people to arrive at their conclusions, which can be an either/or or not sure result...especially on large complex multi-variable instances like global events like this...

His closing is what I think is worth discussing:

So can Ukraine ever win?

Ukraine must stop the airborne wreckage by gaining air supremacy through the use of more sophisticated and larger anti-aircraft batteries and far more SAMs and Stinger smaller systems. Some NATO nations may have to send Ukraine their Soviet-era fighters to replace losses - with conditions that they stay inside Ukrainian air space.

Second, the supply war must no longer be defined as a larger Russian economy versus tiny Ukraine.

Instead, Putin is now warring against the supply chain of all of Europe and the United States - and all out of his reach. The Ukrainian war machine will only grow - if fueled by allies that combined account for 70 percent of the world's GDP.

Putin cannot stop the influx of Western help unless he threatens to use nuclear weapons.

Ukraine may reach a tipping point soon if it can both stop Russian air attacks and expel Putin's ground troops from its cities.

But Kyiv cannot realistically invade Russia to hit its supply depots. It cannot go nuclear to deter future Russian invasions. It cannot shame a bloodthirsty Putin on the world's humanitarian stage.

And it cannot join NATO to win the direct help of 30 other nations.

But what Ukraine can do is push Russian troops back to the border regions and let the Russian-speaking Ukrainian borderlands work out their own star-crossed relationships with a now blood-soaked and unreliable Putin.

It can inflict such death and destruction on the conventional Russian military that Putin will fear he will suffer even worse global humiliation that the United States faced after Afghanistan.

Ukraine can also seek an armistice along the Black Sea coast.

It might agree to a plebiscite or some sort of demilitarized zone and small-scale population exchanges to ensure that Crimea does not become a permanent battleground.

All that is not outright victory, but it is something.

And that something was not imaginable when Russia invaded in late February.

I highlighted the gigantic elephant in the room, because unless this stays conventional...the pragmatic end he envisions has zero chance of happening.

[patentlymn]

VDH is nuts.
UA cannot push Russia back to the borders because the bulk of the initial fighting was done by the Donbas militias, not the Russians. The new UA eastern borders stop at the Donbas western borders.

Anti aircraft batteries? From where? How do they make it to UA? They will be destroyed once inside UA.

Soviet era fighters? Does he mean ancient relics?  How will they make it into UA? I read that most of the ancient soviet equipment from the eastern block was already gone.

It might agree to a plebiscite? They had several in 2014 and UA ignored them all and doubled down. They had their chance and blew it. They even massed maybe 60K forces on their eastern border with the Donbas to retake that territory.

UA can make pin prick raids into Russia but as Russia recently announced, if that is done they will retaliate against the "decision making centers" in Kiev. So far Kiev has been expending the bodies of UA outside of Kiev. Russia has deliberately left most of Kiev alone.

The idea that Kiev fought off the Russians is a joke. It would take at least 10x the troops outside Kiev to take the city and the Russians know that. Also, Kiev is anti Russian and would be a pain to occupy. If Russia wanted to take Kiev I imagine that would involve heavy artillery and bombing. I do not think they have even tried that.

I followed the Duran for years. They have long said that there is nothing that goes on in UA that Russia does not know about. Lots of spies and corruption and inter marriage.  They know where city hall is in Kiev and likely where officials are hiding.

I suspect that most of the troops in Mariupol were from outside that city and had no problem seeing the city destroyed.

In WWII I recall that once France realized there were no troops in between the Germans and Paris, they surrendered. That saved Paris and lots of lives. Mariupol was doomed yet Zelensky was willing to see the city destroyed and lots of troops dead. In the end the Russians won either way. With city intact or in rubble. Zelensky's choice. Good generals surrender when there is no hope of victory or at least some good goal.

[patentlymn]

I found this gem. Michael Hudson on UA. Short videos. 2015.

https://youtu.be/85atPgAJmtM
The IMF Won’t Save Ukraine
11,806 views
Jun 9, 2015
The Nation
Are western Ukrainians to surrender the right to determine their economic policy and risk the loss of state-owned industries and assets in exchange for loans from the International Monetary Fund? In the first of three videos, Michael Hudson, Jeffrey Sommers, and James Carden explain why economic integration with the West won’t turn Ukraine into an economic success story.

https://youtu.be/qIb0M9aOw-Y
Will Ukraine Join NATO? 6 min.
5,443 views
Jun 9, 2015
Is the invitation for Ukraine to join Europe’s economic association a means to expand NATO’s jurisdiction? In the second of three videos, Michael Hudson, Jeffrey Sommers, and James Carden explain why Russia may not be able to tolerate a foreign military alliance along its western border.

https://youtu.be/4E-EoOkLF_g
The US Is Antagonizing Russia in Ukraine - Prof. Michael Hudson
8,466 views
Jun 9, 2015
The Nation
41.5K subscribers
When the Euromaidan movement began in Ukraine, the US quickly jumped behind it. In this third video in a three-part series, Michael Hudson, Jeffrey Sommers, and James Carden explain that US policymakers have continued to support the Westernization of Ukraine through the present day. But in doing so is Washington antagonizing Russia?

Contributors:
Michael Hudson is a former balance-of-payments economist for Chase Manhattan Bank, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and an author of a major study of the IMF. Jeffrey Sommers is Associate Professor of Political Economy at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and a visiting lecturer at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. James Carden is a former Advisor to the State Department on Russia and a regular contributor to The Nation. Moderator Alexander Reed Kelly is an assistant editor at Truthdig.

This series was recorded in the Brooklyn office of Verso Books, and was produced by Endless Picnic.

If anyone wants a bio on Michael Hudson
https://youtu.be/hH9pzzIIEj4

[Libertas]

So you don't see it as a protracted conflict?  What has happened so far to merit that conclusion?  Without going into Kyiv and the rest of the West are they simply going to lay down arms?  Are the Russians and their allies in the East going to be happy behind their Eastern lands and exchanging shots?  Nobody is talking, nobody is interested in yielding on anything and nobody is laying down arms...

Sounds like a perpetual stalemate to me.

And I don't see anybody caring about not sending more weapons and ammo into Ukraine, so if Russia flies in or lobs missiles eventually they're going to receive reciprocal attention...because the longer this goes on the more agitated the Euro's in NATO will be to step in, and they and us just keep pouring more troops and material into the region.

Are these guys aware of any of that?  Are they aware of the constant buzzing of drones, RivetJoint snoopers, tankers & C&C planes coordinating fighter CAPs over Eastern Europe and all the heavy-lift activity?  Our East coast especially has been buzzing with heavy-lift activity mostly flowing East and heavy fighter/trainer activity and tankers and Doomsday flights and C&C planes and snoopers and sniffers and high-altitude surveillance balloons over America and Europe gobbling everything they can...they even aware of all this?  They think this is all going on for jollies?

At some point sh!t is going to break, not a matter of if, it's a clear matter of when!  People may not like it, but guess what, those people can't do sh!t about it...so I'd be a little more concerned than these guys...they're gonna stroke out when the pooh hits...and it won't matter who is blaming who...all are to blame because all the shot-callers East and West want it...each is convinced they can be the one to emerge victorious...King of the Ashes!

[patentlymn]

I don't think the west cares about Ukraine any more than they care about Libya, Syria, Iraq, Serbia.
The US is more than happy to turn countries into wastelands just because.
The US govt and somewhat our people are bloodthirsty and aggressive and have no reverse gear and no taste for negotiating. If you disagree find out how many US people care about the above countries we have trashed.

IMO NATO will not send any more troops into UA. NATO troops and equipment inside UA is fair game.

Russia sees this as a life or death struggle. The US does not. NATO advances east despite promises not to do so and Russia knows what NATO and the US do to countries. They have watched NATO moving east like a ratchet. They know of long term plans  to degrade Russia as a nation. These plans are in writing and in books even but could be argued to be theoretical. US plans for regime change all over the world cannot be denied. Biden did not help with his recent statements even though he is senile.  Take a poll of millions of screaming Pakis this week about regime change. Watch the Wesley Clark video of years ago about 7 countries in 5 years as I recall. 

At this point Russia would be happy with the Donbas  being independent or part of Russia and Crimea staying part of Russia. They want to occupy Kiev like they want rectal cancer. IMO Russia will be happy to negotiate a peace but the US will want to fight until every Ukrainian is dead and eastern Ukraine is rubble. Maybe the US will fight to the last European.  If the US wants the UA govt to further attack the Donbas or Russia from western Ukraine Russia will return fire and level Kiev piece by piece. If NATO gets more involved, Russia can pulverize Warsaw or Berlin with hypersonics and not even go nuclear.  NATO had trained about 1/3 of UA troops to NATO standards. Russia noticed BTW.

Russia would regard neutral UA as a win. The US regards that as a loss. Let that sink in.

I think Europe will grow tired of the mess the US made and step in. They did around 2015 and kept the blood thirsty US out of the Minsk talks. Back then the heads of Germany and France had spines. They may again some day and stand up to the US. IMO the US goaded the UA govt into ignoring the Minsk agreements. Maybe EU countries will pressure UA govt into negotiating in good faith. They remember what war on their turf is like. In the US we watch it on TV. Zelensky said around 2021 that he had no intention of honoring the Minsk agreements. Too late now.

Putin is regarded as being too soft BTW. He is not a hard liner by Kremlin standards.

I remember in Syria where the US directly armed AQ and indirectly(?) armed ISIS. ISIS was advancing on Damascus. John Kerry is on tape saying this is good because it will apply pressure on Assad. So the cavalry comes riding over the hill to save civilization from the savages and they are Russian. I thought my head would explode. I thought we were the good guys. Do you think the rest of the world noticed?

I cannot remember the deal the UA govt wanted with Russia in 2014 but remember it was better than the EU deal, as Michael Hudson discussed above. So the US backed a coup to bring us where we are today.

[patentlymn]

And I don't see anybody caring about not sending more weapons and ammo into Ukraine, so if Russia flies in or lobs missiles eventually they're going to receive reciprocal attention...because the longer this goes on the more agitated the Euro's in NATO will be to step in, and they and us just keep pouring more troops and material into the region.

UA has been lobbing shells into the Donbas for 8 years. 14K dead.  The Russians recently made sure they received reciprocal attention. All the NATO fancy equipment outside of UA will not change much. Once it enters UA it may be destroyed.

IMO the Euros will never become agitated enough to send in their troops to die. Neither will the US. Ursula turned the German army into a joke as I recall.

[Libertas]

I keep trying to emphasize there are no saints on any side here...I can be disdainful of Putin and Russia and our own despicable government and feckless Euro's simultaneously...and I see no reason to alter that practice...finger pointing and butthurtness doesn't excite me nor is it going to alter the reality one iota, but if it feels good by all means run with it...

This by Martin Armstrong dovetails with what I'm trying to emphasize...both the Illegitimate JoeFraud regime and the Euro's need war...it doesn't matter where or why or how...it only matters that it happens.  Their Great Reset under Option 1 - Scamdemic is fizzling, sure, some lemmings have been culled by murderous WuFlu hospitalization protocols, sure the Clot Shot's fullyu known and indemnified complications have taken some more and likely will take some more out...but, still too many damned sheep (and troublesome wolves) left, so only way to cull some more and turn around the economies destroyed by Option 1 is to go to Option 2 - World War.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/west-needs-wwiii-martin-armstrong-warns-theres-no-return-normal-here

And you cannot have a World War without willing participants.

Russia took the bait and entered Ukraine...twice...and allowed NATO to expand more not less...do you really think he will refuse more bait?

I don't.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/russia-threatens-new-nuclear-deployments-if-sweden-finland-join-nato.html

The passion for war on all sides only grows...

But I'm sure the post-war survivors will be crowing about victory and writing the history that points the right fingers at the right targets and that will make everyone feel a lot better...

/

[patentlymn]

I can't see Putin taking on much more than places where the Russians are wanted. I do not know the reasons for taking Mariupol or how much the Russians are wanted there. They may be  more welcome than the UA govt at this point.

I do know that Putin objected to the Donbas independence as he just wanted the mess there settle via Minsk agreed to meetings but the UA govt refused to even meet with the Donbas. Why meet with subhumans?

The US is willing to send money and arms to UA but nothing else. The EU will never send troops. Not sure about money or arms.

I saw this video in AM. Some guy in eastern Mariupol. In short, AZOV/UA were shooting at civilians they knew were civilians. After AZOV/UA left civilian bodies were found with hands tied shot in the back. A nurse who worked at the hospital said UA kicked them out of the hospital and took it over. Not to use as a hospital as she said it no longer functioned as such after they left. At the end he says that the locals report that AZOV shelled the hospital from the steel works after they left.

https://youtu.be/-2qiqpMN6dM
Dozens of Murdered civilians Found in Mariupol after Ukraine retreats (Some hands bound)
131,267 views
Apr 15, 2022
Patrick Lancaster
379K subscribers



They use a word translated to "mine" but not sure what they mean. I have heard that before also.
Once the city was surrounded with no chance of reinforcements or resupply the game was over. The UA govt lost.  No reason for the city to be destroyed.

[Libertas]

You are definitely more optimistic than I...

[Libertas]

Wow, this is not small issue...

Russia’s Black Sea flagship missile cruiser, the Moskva, sank while being towed to port after an explosion caused by an unexplained fire, the Russian defence ministry has said, after Ukraine said it had hit the ship with a missile or missiles.

Although Russia did not confirm that Ukrainian missiles had hit the ship, early on Friday it struck what it described as a factory in Kyiv that made and repaired anti-ship missiles, in apparent retaliation.

Ukraine said it had struck the Moskva with Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles while distracting its crew with an aerial drone, causing it to start sinking and forcing the crew of 500 to abandon ship.

Russia’s defence ministry initially denied reports that it had sunk and claimed the fires had been extinguished. It said four Russian ships that had gone to the Moskva’s rescue were hampered by bad weather and by ammunition blowing up on board.

Late on Thursday the ministry said in a statement: “The cruiser ship Moskva lost its stability when it was towed to the port because of the damage to the ship’s hull that it received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition. In stormy sea conditions, the ship sank.”

The claim of bad weather being a factor in the sinking was questioned by observers. Mark Hertling, the former commanding general of the United States Army Europe, told CNN: “As they were towing that ship in, that very wounded ship, into Sevastopol, they claim a storm sank it. Looking at the weather report outside of Sevastopol today the winds were about four miles an hour with 40 degree [4C] temperatures and a little bit of rain.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/14/russia-moskva-cruiser-sunk-stormy-seas-defense-ministry

Would like someone other than CNN confirming weather in the area at the time...

But, it seems curious that denials were followed up with admissions that on the face seem less than truthful...fire caused by explosions of ammunition...OK...and they just spontaneously ignited?  Sailor flick a cigarette butt the wrong direction?  Something in storage armed by mistake?  I can tell ya in any Navy none of that happens.  And a factory in Kyiv involved with anti-ship missiles struck...just happened to be on the menu that day?

So, they will admit to catastrophic incompetence in this case.  Okie dokie then.



Tug looks a little undersized.  Oh well...

Some having sport with the news are clever, and funny...being a model maker when I was a kid I kinda had to chuckle at this one!


H/T-WZ

[patentlymn]

^^^^^
I read that the Moskva was now a submarine.

Also Alex read from the saker. It reported that the UA soldiers are not aware of what the overal situation is like and are lead by local leaders to think they are winning.

At 9:30
https://youtu.be/dLYqFJ4vTcg?t=562
'Foreign fighter' problems. Greece says no more weapons. Update 2
8,914 views
Apr 15, 2022
Alex Christoforou
83K subscribers

[Libertas]

Need a circle-jerk smiley...

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/moscow-warns-us-diplomatic-letter-arming-ukraine-result-unpredictable-consequences

...blah, blah, blah...

Nobody calling shots here or in Europe give a damn...they don't care what you say...be vague, be specific...doesn't matter...everybody is thirsting for war...your Economic wizard Sergey Glazyev, remember him?  The guy who grew up in Zaporozhye and identifies as Russian (throwing his Ukrainian mother under the ethnic bus) and laments that Banderists (ancient Ukrainian fascists...you know, Nazi's) never existed while he grew up in this Southeastern Ukrainian city (you know, where that big nuke plant is) in the glorious Soviet days of his youth (where one of the chief benefits of Soviet domination was artificial suppression of all ethnic, religious, historical and political differences)...yeah that guy...admits Western sanctions, NATO expansion and warfare as necessary elements for the BRICS to emerge victorious!

So, willing partners in war you have...don't over-sell it.

And in an update to the Moskva story...since the Russians habitually avert painful truths you have to read between the lines and smell the smoke...

It now appears Russia's retaliation for the devastating loss of its celebrated missile cruiser Moskva has begun, with the defense ministry announcing: "The number and scale of missile strikes against targets in Kyiv will increase in response to any terrorist attacks or sabotage committed by the Kyiv nationalist regime on Russian territory."

On Saturday it's being reported that after a lull in fighting near Kiev following weeks ago Russian forces having pulled back their positions to focus on Donbas in the east, there have been fresh scattered attacks on the Ukrainian capital.
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/russia-renews-long-range-strikes-kiev-following-disastrous-loss-warship

"Echo-four"

 
"You sank my Flagship!"

See?  It's not hard...use your words!

 

[patentlymn]

Your pessimism may be warranted. If the US sends hundreds of switchblades and javelins and the border is porous to these shipments I imagine that will harm the Russian military. The question is what Russia will do in response.

I think the Russian public is getting more upset that Russia is not dropping the hammer on Ukraine, Kiev in particular. Despite the MSM propaganda Russia has taken it easy on the big cities and civilians and even much military. Last I heard, electricity, sewer, water, gas, internet, cell phones all work in Kiev and Kharkov. The US would have destroyed these the first week.  If Russia does not care about lives or damage just watch a WWII documentary to see the optimal tactics. Soviet Storm is on Amazon Prime.

I saw that the US sent 5K troops to the Poland-UA border to join the 4K already there. All UA has to do is drop a rocket with cluster munitions on them to bring US into the war. They already bomb UA civilians so why not Americans? If the Pentagon is honest that might not work.

[patentlymn]

A short video on Mariupol from years past and present. 6 min. Worth watching IMO.
I can see why the UA wanted it destroyed rather than surrender.
The locals wanted independence so Kiev sent in the tanks and later sent in the far right soldiers to dig in since they hated the locals.

https://youtu.be/OubfGIupgWE
Mariupol - Why Has This Happened?
16,944 views
Apr 17, 2022
Graham Phillips
254K subscribers

Also had the Duran on earlier. Slept through some. They pointed out that Finland survived WWII by making peace with the USSR and thereby kept more of their country which was not taken into the USSR as a result. Also Sweden got rich off WWII by staying neutral (and selling resources to the Germans).

Sweden is effectively a NATO ally already. Sweden may hang back and see what Finland does first. Finland may not allow people to vote on joining NATO, just force it on them?  They said if both join NATO it simplifies future military planning for Russia as they would not have to bypass the neutral countries. In their opinion both countries make out better neutral as they always have been.

Russia declared cease fire starting Sunday 6 AM at the steel plant. All who put down arms are guaranteed safety of life. Including Azov and mercenaries.

https://youtu.be/YooZJDuRS20
NATO ready to welcome Finland and Sweden into alliance
17,038 views
Apr 17, 2022
The Duran
208K subscribers

https://youtu.be/Ouv_7bJxWdU
Russia offers Azovstal final chance to surrender. 'Foreign fighter' trials coming soon. Update 1
69,887 views
Apr 17, 2022
Alex Christoforou
84.9K subscribers

[Libertas]

Good news!  Well, for continued war and death anyway...

Rumors abound on Moskva...but the most concerning one is that 2 carrier-killing nuke missiles were on board when she went under...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10721351/Ukraine-war-Fears-Moskva-warship-carrying-nuclear-weapons-sank.html

...if true I am sure some criminals looking to be paid handsomely by radicals if not the radicals themselves are licking their chops at the illegal salvage opportunity this presents...

And...

Russia state TV says WWIII has already begun!

https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/15/ukraine-russian-state-tv-warns-world-war-three-has-already-begun-16472787/

Everybody knows Russia state anything doesn't lie.  Glad East and West agree the games are on!

/

[patentlymn]

I am guestimating she sank around 1500 feet or less. I am sure they will retrieve any warheads.
The OPCW destroyed its credibility years ago on the fake Syria gas attack, now the OSCE.

Also,
the OSCE link
InessaS Telegram links:
https://t.me/inessas100/1143

The OSCE had some official small cameras on poles maybe to collect flashes of shelling?
PLUS
some 200x zoom cameras they tried to destroy as they withdrew
1. flash drives on the cameras had videos of DPR positions.
2. the same videos were found on UA military lap tops and cell phones.
3. a video shows the videos used to direct artillery against DPR forces
4. a detained OSCE staffer admits all of the above.

https://www.osce.org/who-we-are [they left out artillery spotting]
With 57 participating States in North America, Europe and Asia, the OSCE – the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe – is the world’s largest regional security organization. The OSCE works for stability, peace and democracy for more than a billion people, through political dialogue about shared values and through practical work that aims to make a lasting difference.

[Libertas]

And Russia blasts a city at the other end of the country...

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/russia-expands-cruise-missile-strikes-western-city-lviv

...so everybody appears to be on the same page and acting according.

War, it's a blast!  Come get yours today!

[Libertas]

More hilarity on the front lines...

Check out these two imbeciles -

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/captured-britons-appear-russian-tv-urging-boris-johnson-negotiate-ukraine-prisoner

...foreign adventurers wanting to act out their Hemmingway fantasies without the sanction of a declaration of war by their government(s) should know nobody will give a damn what happens to them...except those too stupid to realize it...it appears in this case the latter is in play...

But, now all sides want to play Let's Make Deal...how nice, huh?!

Hold that thought...

In a diplomatic letter to the US last week, Russia warned NATO to stop arming Ukraine, and Russian officials have said US and NATO vehicles transporting weapons inside the country would be considered “legitimate military targets.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/british-elite-sas-soldiers-are-training-troops-ukrainian-territory

How about a deal...stop supporting the scum of humanity like the Mahdi Death Cult in Iran and the Marxists in Venezuela, Cuba & China?  Deal?