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Topics => General Board => Topic started by: pisskop on September 27, 2013, 06:39:04 PM

Title: Demographic Winter
Post by: pisskop on September 27, 2013, 06:39:04 PM
Some of this I believe and could probably confirm with a five minute search, other stuff it taught me and I need to look up.  Whatever the case I found the video worth my time.

Demographic Winter (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxUD8E-qbyI#ws)

It explains the declining birth rate of Europe and other parts of the world, and the possible reasons behind it, the consequences.

This can quite easily fold nicely into the concept of a demographic bomb, which I am hearing more of.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Septugenarian on September 27, 2013, 06:46:52 PM
Indeed.  We are similarly afflicted.  Birth rate too low to maintain the culture (assuming its worth maintaining/saving).  Each generation since the greatest is smaller than its predecessor, etc.  Economically it bodes poorly for us, well, for the kids and grandkids anyway.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: whimsicalmamapig on September 27, 2013, 07:38:33 PM
I believe that this is a natural phenomenon. many studies suggest that as a species we are overpopulating the planet, draining too much natural resources such as arable land and fresh water.

Perhaps this is a defense mechanism, an instinctive response to a growing awareness of the crowding all around us.  perhaps it explains the rise in homosexuality as a response to a need to slow down the reproductive rate.

If you have ever read mesolithic and paleolithic history you would know how empty this planet originally was.  we have filled it up, not only with cultures that we disdain, but also with great cultures such as ours. the u.s. will endure a growing water shortage, especially as what was before air conditioning, unusable land, is filling up in our south west.

we must realize that the perfect storm of 1945-1965 when the rest of the world was recovering from near annihilation. we were the only functioning economy and we were still innocent and hadn't really absorbed the toxic nihilism from a devastated Europe. this cannot be recreated at this point in history. we need to move on, hopefully upward, but not essentially outward.

the planet is finite. there are no more continents to find and fill.

this shouldn't be a dirge, it should be a challenge to our human spirit to find a way to flourish without endangering the productivity of the planet.
the time to be fruitful and multiply has come and gone
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: IronDioPriest on September 27, 2013, 08:05:31 PM
If you haven't yet read Mark Steyn's "America Alone", you should read it.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: whimsicalmamapig on September 27, 2013, 08:15:57 PM
I have wanted to read several of his books but I am just not emotionally ready for them.  I find reading ancient history is much more satisfying as I can observe bygone events and compare them to what is happening today and find satisfaction in guessing what might happen now based on proven human responses to situations.

I am not ready to accept the dire straights into which we seem to have put ourselves. 
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Pandora on September 27, 2013, 08:22:29 PM
I believe that this is a natural phenomenon. many studies suggest that as a species we are overpopulating the planet, draining too much natural resources such as arable land and fresh water.

Perhaps this is a defense mechanism, an instinctive response to a growing awareness of the crowding all around us.  perhaps it explains the rise in homosexuality as a response to a need to slow down the reproductive rate.

If you have ever read mesolithic and paleolithic history you would know how empty this planet originally was.  we have filled it up, not only with cultures that we disdain, but also with great cultures such as ours. the u.s. will endure a growing water shortage, especially as what was before air conditioning, unusable land, is filling up in our south west.

we must realize that the perfect storm of 1945-1965 when the rest of the world was recovering from near annihilation. we were the only functioning economy and we were still innocent and hadn't really absorbed the toxic nihilism from a devastated Europe. this cannot be recreated at this point in history. we need to move on, hopefully upward, but not essentially outward.

the planet is finite. there are no more continents to find and fill.

this shouldn't be a dirge, it should be a challenge to our human spirit to find a way to flourish without endangering the productivity of the planet.
the time to be fruitful and multiply has come and gone

Baloney.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: LadyVirginia on September 27, 2013, 08:33:25 PM
Baloney.

I AGREE!!!
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: IronDioPriest on September 28, 2013, 12:24:33 AM
...the time to be fruitful and multiply has come and gone

The problem with that is that civilized Western cultures are the only ones that will self-regulate. We've "purchased" the future security of our progeny with civilization and everything that comes with it.

Third world cultures - particularly concerning among them Islamic cultures - do not self regulate. While Western cultures avoid having children or abort them for reasons ranging from selfish to "saving the planet", Islamic and other Third-world cultures are repopulating at comparative ratios of something like 5/1.

Read America Alone. You'll see the folly in your theory. It's math.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: LadyVirginia on September 28, 2013, 12:59:50 AM
Just reserved America Alone at the library.

I watched the whole video though it wasn't anything new to me.  I've been reading about this topic for over 20 years.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: BigAlSouth on September 28, 2013, 04:42:25 AM
The problem is: The Western Culture as practiced by mid-twentieth Century America no longer holds a place of value in the professional educational class.

And I hate those bastards for what they have done to destroy the American spirit through diversity and multiculturalism.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: oldcoastie6468 on September 28, 2013, 06:48:50 AM
Well, we had two kids, and they have given us 6 grandchildren, and 1 great-granddaughter. So the alarmists obviously don't include people like me.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: IronDioPriest on September 28, 2013, 08:16:27 AM
Well, we had two kids, and they have given us 6 grandchildren, and 1 great-granddaughter. So the alarmists obviously don't include people like me.

The alarming thing is that they do.

The basic premise of Steyn's book is that simple math requires an average of more than two births per adult couple in order to repopulate the species (or race) with zero growth. Further, no specific population have EVER historically fallen slightly below that and bounced back to survive. Essentially, a society or race that falls below 2 births/couple is a dead society/race.

Every European nation's traditional population is well below 2, while their Muslim immigrants are upwards of 5-6. We're witnessing in Scandinavia now, a hint at the fate of Europe as a whole.

America hovers just above 2 - and the only reason we do is because of Blacks, Hispanics, rural families, and Christian families - particularly Catholics.

Still, we hover just above 2, which means our White population is not having children at rates any more prolific than Europe.

The Caucasian race is killing itself with the notion that children are not "required", or worse yet, that they are "bad for the planet".
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: pisskop on September 28, 2013, 08:37:27 AM
Well, we had two kids, and they have given us 6 grandchildren, and 1 great-granddaughter. So the alarmists obviously don't include people like me.

Aye, they'd have to.  You'd bring the birth rate right up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States)

Quote
The US total fertility rate for 2011 is 1.895: Decrease [40]
1.774 for non-Hispanic Whites Decrease
1.920 for non-Hispanic Blacks Decrease
1.374 for Native Americans (including Hispanics) Decrease
1.707 for Asian Americans (including Hispanics) Increase
2.24 for Hispanics(of all racial groups) Decrease

This is the birth rate of America.  Under 2, which is the requirement of an internally sustained population. 

And population estimates
Quote
2010 310,232,863
2020 341,386,665 
2030 373,503,674 
2040 405,655,295 
2050 439,010,253
Its worth noting we had 308 million by 2010, a small amount less than the projection, which isn't slowing.  There's a steady rate of increase here, even as birth rate plummet.

The reason we are predicted to grow is in part die to longer lives and the continued balloon of Baby boomers, but also due to immigration and immigrants having higher fertility.
http://www.cis.org/ImmigrantBirthRates-FertilityUS (http://www.cis.org/ImmigrantBirthRates-FertilityUS)

http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/29/immigrants-lead-plunge-in-u-s-birth-rate/ (http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/29/immigrants-lead-plunge-in-u-s-birth-rate/)
Quote
The Pew Research Center's projections indicate that immigrants will continue to play a large role in U.S. population growth: Immigrants arriving since 2005 and their descendants will account for 82% of U.S. population growth by 2050.

Over in Europe, the problem is worse, France, with its natural birth rate of 2.01 is the highest in Europe.  Almost all population growth in Europe is due to immigrants and immigrant births.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: oldcoastie6468 on September 28, 2013, 08:37:55 AM
My Swedish ancestors are rolling over in their graves.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: warpmine on September 28, 2013, 12:11:45 PM
My Swedish ancestors are rolling over in their graves.
Quickly, strap a dynamo to them for power generation. Europe can then have plenty of green power.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: pisskop on September 28, 2013, 12:55:13 PM
My Swedish ancestors are rolling over in their graves.
Quickly, strap a dynamo to them for power generation. Europe can then have plenty of green power.

You're a terrible person  ;D
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: LadyVirginia on September 28, 2013, 01:16:02 PM
Well, both sides of my family did their part down to my parents.  Mom had more than 2.1.  I did my part.  Mom should be a grandmother of at least 8 --she has 7 and that's due to me and my brother.  The other two never married.  And really to make the 2.1 work some need to have several because there will be some who can't have children.

I remember when I was a kid it seemed all the grandmas had lots of grandkids.  Now people I know with grandkids often have fewer grandkids than kids--one or two. I know grandparents that have one grandchild.  One. Which is good I guess because their active lifestyle isn't interrupted.

My daughters would like to have  families but they're having a hard time finding suitable material.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Glock32 on September 28, 2013, 02:17:04 PM
I'm statistically part of the problem. Just turned 36, unmarried, no kids. Of course, my bright, optimistic, and sunny disposition might have something to do with that.

 ::curtsy4::
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: oldcoastie6468 on September 28, 2013, 02:52:50 PM
My Swedish ancestors are rolling over in their graves.
Quickly, strap a dynamo to them for power generation. Europe can then have plenty of green power.

You are baaaad! Of course, how would you know they're rolling in all directions?
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Dan on September 28, 2013, 04:24:22 PM
We're doing our part with 4 (2each m&f). I read Steyns book while we were well on our way, after we decided to have a brood, so it didnt influence our decision, but I can't tell you the grave concern I have over them winding up a despised minority in their own country.
 I've talked a little bit about it to my boys,  they're oldest, and as they all get older, I plan on presenting the dots to them and letting them draw the picture as it so clearly presents itself, really.
I'm pretty attuned to making sure my wife knows that "we're raising MEN here honey!" No pink, no piercings, no skinny jeans or any other attempts to emasculate the males of our race. She is pretty much on board and we hav had no serious disagreements on it, but I haven't given her the full info on our kids likely future. She has a tough time listening to my gloom and doom re: the economy, never mind the demographic angle.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Alphabet Soup on September 28, 2013, 04:56:48 PM
The world isn't producing fewer humans each year, it's just that some of the races are on the downward spiral and some aren't. This video is OK but the documentary Idiocracy is closer to the mark. "Smart" people have convinced themselves - and to an extent each other - that replenishing the species is somehow economically nonviable, ecologically unsound, and (this one always cracks me up) ethically selfish. Blacks, muzzies, and Asians, not (yet) hamstrung by such silly notions, continue to breed like rabbits.

Of course the fact that white people are literally working themselves to death to subsidize all the other races doesn't exactly help matters. Whites, being the creators of the blueprint to their own demise, have no one else to blame.

This, like everything else unpleasant in life, I blame on leftists.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Pandora on September 29, 2013, 01:06:20 AM
Quote
    Eric Holthaus, who used to do weather for Wall Street Journal, was reacting to Friday's findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    *  Scientists found in the report that it was 'extremely likely' that humans are causing warming trends
    *  Holthaus said he has decided not to have children in order to leave a lighter carbon footprint, and has considered having a vasectomy
    *  He tweeted on Friday 'no children, happy to go extinct'
    *  The weatherman also said he is committed to stop flying as 'it's not worth the climate'
    *  US Secretary of State, John Kerry, calls the report 'an alarm bell'
    * It means scientists have moved from being 90 per cent sure to 95 per cent sure regarding global warming

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/09/28/article-2436551-1857CC2A00000578-533_634x464.jpg)

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436551/A-weatherman-breaks-tears-vows-NEVER-fly-grim-climate-change-report.html#ixzz2gG7F90Sa (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436551/A-weatherman-breaks-tears-vows-NEVER-fly-grim-climate-change-report.html#ixzz2gG7F90Sa)

Maybe we're better off without him and his ilk, but if not for him having been twisted into nihilism by the Left and their lies, he and his wife might have reproduced +2.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: pisskop on September 29, 2013, 01:09:26 AM
Quote
    Eric Holthaus, who used to do weather for Wall Street Journal, was reacting to Friday's findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    *  Scientists found in the report that it was 'extremely likely' that humans are causing warming trends
    *  Holthaus said he has decided not to have children in order to leave a lighter carbon footprint, and has considered having a vasectomy
    *  He tweeted on Friday 'no children, happy to go extinct'
    *  The weatherman also said he is committed to stop flying as 'it's not worth the climate'
    *  US Secretary of State, John Kerry, calls the report 'an alarm bell'
    * It means scientists have moved from being 90 per cent sure to 95 per cent sure regarding global warming

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436551/A-weatherman-breaks-tears-vows-NEVER-fly-grim-climate-change-report.html#ixzz2gG7F90Sa (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436551/A-weatherman-breaks-tears-vows-NEVER-fly-grim-climate-change-report.html#ixzz2gG7F90Sa)


If he keeps his head up head rump it'll stop the hot air from coming out of both ends.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: ChrstnHsbndFthr on September 29, 2013, 01:14:21 AM
Quote
    Eric Holthaus, who used to do weather for Wall Street Journal, was reacting to Friday's findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    *  Scientists found in the report that it was 'extremely likely' that humans are causing warming trends
    *  Holthaus said he has decided not to have children in order to leave a lighter carbon footprint, and has considered having a vasectomy
    *  He tweeted on Friday 'no children, happy to go extinct'
    *  The weatherman also said he is committed to stop flying as 'it's not worth the climate'
    *  US Secretary of State, John Kerry, calls the report 'an alarm bell'
    * It means scientists have moved from being 90 per cent sure to 95 per cent sure regarding global warming

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/09/28/article-2436551-1857CC2A00000578-533_634x464.jpg)

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436551/A-weatherman-breaks-tears-vows-NEVER-fly-grim-climate-change-report.html#ixzz2gG7F90Sa (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436551/A-weatherman-breaks-tears-vows-NEVER-fly-grim-climate-change-report.html#ixzz2gG7F90Sa)

Maybe we're better off without him and his ilk, but if not for him having been twisted into nihilism by the Left and their lies, he and his wife might have reproduced +2.

Wow, just notices your signature line....and got a little scared!
<I iz also makin a list. U on it pal.>
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Pandora on September 29, 2013, 01:22:48 AM
I'd wager almost everybody on this board has two lists of their own; sorta depends which list you're on, dunnit?
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: ChrstnHsbndFthr on September 29, 2013, 01:30:16 AM
I'd wager almost everybody on this board has two lists of their own; sorta depends which list you're on, dunnit?

I feel like a small child at Christmas, whispering to myself: "Please be on the nice list, please be on the nice list, please be on the nice list, please be on the nice list!"

But, as an adult with a little more experience, I suspect that I switch lists occasionally. Thank God for forgiveness!
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: oldcoastie6468 on September 29, 2013, 10:39:20 AM
Alarm bell, huh? Kerry better grab onto his clapper, 'cause his flitting around the globe in jets and limos doesn't count for him.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Libertas on September 29, 2013, 11:36:37 AM
It is obvious that certain humans hate other humans but see no hypocrisy in the actions they make are the same as everybody else on the planet...it's just that they are deluded into thinking they are smarter than everyone else and that they need to obey them or else...or else what?  They'll have a meltadown that'll make a 4 year old's meltdown look tame in comparison?  I want to push people like this into active volcanoes...maybe ancient human practices of human sacrifices were in fact a means of ridding society of useless unproductive assholes?
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Eupher on September 29, 2013, 12:18:35 PM
It is obvious that certain humans hate other humans but see no hypocrisy in the actions they make are the same as everybody else on the planet...it's just that they are deluded into thinking they are smarter than everyone else and that they need to obey them or else...or else what?  They'll have a meltadown that'll make a 4 year old's meltdown look tame in comparison?  I want to push people like this into active volcanoes...maybe ancient human practices of human sacrifices were in fact a means of ridding society of useless unproductive assholes?


While it's a marvelous thing to cherish human life, and western culture tends to cherish life more than the muzzies do, for instance; but sometimes ya just gotta let the Darwin Award thing ring out loud and strong.


We spend too much time coddling people.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Pandora on September 29, 2013, 12:25:51 PM
Quote
We spend too much time coddling people.

Agreed.  The stupid were once self-limiting.

Now, one can pretty much figure a past-lawsuit for every warning label on a ladder ........ or almost anything else.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: pisskop on September 29, 2013, 12:29:51 PM
Austerity measures: Will America even use them?
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Glock32 on September 29, 2013, 01:03:54 PM
His wife is uncharacteristically cute to be a green Leftie.  What a waste.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Eupher on September 29, 2013, 02:46:45 PM
Austerity measures: Will America even use them?


No way in hell. That'll mean giving up American Idol and watching Diane Sawyer to get the "news."  ::falldownshocked::
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Libertas on September 29, 2013, 03:25:20 PM
Did the Romans accept austerity?  No, keep the chimera going as long as possible, makes the collapse more fun I guess.  Of course the lower rungs of society (and lets be clear, by the time the collapse comes, most will be in the lower rung!) will already know in their gut if not their head the end is near...and some of the ruling class may escape just up to and after the fall, but many will be chased down the streets and slaughtered.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: Glock32 on September 29, 2013, 04:12:30 PM
Hitting rock bottom can cause individuals to get themselves sorted out, because an individual knows the Piper will collect his due during their own lifetime, i.e. they know they will experience the pain and consequences very much in a personal way.

The dynamic is different when you're talking about civilizations or states. The Piper still collects his due, but it's possible to postpone it on a generational rather than personal scale. There's little to deter profligacy when the pain and consequences can be comfortably abstracted onto some future generation. Little other than morality and ethics, that is, and both are notably lacking in a crumbling society such as ours.
Title: Re: Demographic Winter
Post by: LadyVirginia on September 29, 2013, 05:17:19 PM
He's just trying to justify his selfishness.