It's About Liberty: A Conservative Forum

Topics => Economy => Topic started by: ToddF on April 08, 2011, 01:10:57 PM

Title: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on April 08, 2011, 01:10:57 PM
Gold - $1,475
Silver - $40.65
Oil, WTI - $112.41
Gas, wholesale - $3.24 + taxes

The last time silver was that high, the Hunt Brothers were billionaires. With gas that high, $4 will be the norm within a week.  You're wholesaling around $3.75 and up, with taxes, let alone credit card fees.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on April 08, 2011, 05:31:35 PM
Well, geez, people; y'all need to trade up for a ______________ .  You know, something that doesn't use fuel.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 09, 2011, 12:10:07 PM
Man-Made Disaster Pan, that's the Regime's game.  Brow-beat the idiotic consumer for consuming things he needs to live and work.  All in a days work for a destroyer of wealth.  People are just another commodity to the Proglodytes, to be used or discarded as they see fit.

And silver will continue to rise, it's demand has not lessened at all.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on April 09, 2011, 01:07:30 PM
There was a piece on Fran Porretto's site a little bit ago about the rising cost of copper and copper coins available as the, for now, still affordable form of wealth conservation.

I'll hunt it up if anyone's interested.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 09, 2011, 01:10:32 PM
MichelleO's new thread in TEOTWAWKI also has a link to a barter site that has copper up for auction.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 09, 2011, 01:20:24 PM

Copper is more speculative, this month, than silver or gold.  Copper is an industrial metal and the price depends on demand. IMHO

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 09, 2011, 01:27:51 PM
Yes, and its lower cost means you have to obtain larger quantities to leverage any advantage.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on April 09, 2011, 01:36:32 PM
Quote
In the two years since that essay was posted here, the price of gold has increased more than 60%, and the price of silver has exploded by nearly 200%. In consequence of which, your Curmudgeon must now direct your attention to the following:

(http://www.eternityroad.info/images/uploads/WalkingLibertyCopper.jpg)

That's right: Copper. Even silver, for a long spell "the poor man's gold," is now too expensive for the average American to purchase in quantity, as an inflation hedge and a disaster reserve. Partly because of the explosion in its price, and partly because those who have it have become increasingly reluctant to sell it for paper dollars, the rate of trade in silver rounds has fallen off dramatically. The copper rounds in the photo above are currently selling for about $1.35 each in modest quantities. Trade in them appears brisk

...

Please, please, please: If you missed the run-up in silver, don't miss the one about to occur in copper. Copper has already climbed 40% in price in the last year. If it's within your means, buy a thousand ounces or so and put them in a safe, dry place.


Link (http://www.eternityroad.info/index.php/weblog/single/killing_the_money/)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 09, 2011, 03:11:57 PM

Copper will only go up if construction goes up.  Many talking heads say 'China and other emerging markets will drive copper'.  One way or the other.



Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on April 11, 2011, 09:30:21 AM
There was a piece on Fran Porretto's site a little bit ago about the rising cost of copper and copper coins available as the, for now, still affordable form of wealth conservation.

I'll hunt it up if anyone's interested.

That's another one to watch.  Copper-$4.50 per pound, which makes pre 1982 copper cents worth about 3 cents apiece.  Who'd have thunk those that used to pull the silver out of circulation in the 1960's and 1970's would be doing so for copper?

That only makes it around 40cents per ounce.  I wouldn't be buying 1 oz rounds for a buck 50.


 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 11, 2011, 09:35:39 AM
Frankly, I see silver having more run left in it, and I personally don't want to have to lug pounds of copper around, so for me I'll still acquire silver, plenty of distributors have rounds available still.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on April 11, 2011, 09:41:30 AM
Or just put yourself together a circulated Roosevelt Dime 1946-1964/Washington Quarter collection 1932-1964/Franklin Half 1948-1963.  Most can be acquired for silver and you can ride the boom.  Even most Mercury Dimes 1920 on, Late 1920's Standing Liberty Quarter, Post 1933 half dollars, Morgan and Peace Dollars 1878-1935, can be acquired for just the silver content.

Those of us that might have done so in the 1990's?  Well?  ::pimp::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 11, 2011, 09:57:18 AM
The so-called "junk" silver.  Yeah, have a lot of that too.  You can still get grab bags from many dealers, but I'm sure the the price is going up on them as well, so shop before you buy!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on April 15, 2011, 07:37:12 AM
Chugging along...

WTI Crude - $107.69
Gas - $3.20
Copper - $4.28 pound
Silver - $42.50 oz
Gold - $1,479

What does $42.50 silver mean?  That junk silver in your dresser drawer?  33 times face, based on .7736 oz silver in a silver dollar (proportional in smaller demoninations).

A 1964 dime?  .07736 x 42.50 = $3.29 silver content.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 15, 2011, 07:41:48 AM
Yup.  I built a spreadsheet that factors in the silver & gold content of every US coin (and a few foriegn ones) that I have, the quantity of each and put that against the current price via market download.  Needless to say the value on metal content has really shot up.

Chug, chug, chug...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Glock32 on April 15, 2011, 11:06:52 AM
Copper combined with zinc is gonna be real valuable indeed....
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 15, 2011, 12:13:28 PM
Copper combined with zinc is gonna be real valuable indeed....

Predicting societal retrogression?

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Glock32 on April 15, 2011, 12:24:18 PM
Well, history does show that Progressive to Repressive is a baby step indeed
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: michelleo on April 15, 2011, 04:04:28 PM
Gold: 1487.10
Silver: 43.04

Daaayyyymmm.  Shoulda bought more.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 15, 2011, 04:09:26 PM
Gold: 1487.10
Silver: 43.04

Daaayyyymmm.  Shoulda bought more.

 

It's said that gold doesn't appreciate, it just maintains value.
What does that say about cash on hand?

Daaayyyymmm.  Shoulda bought more.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: michelleo on April 15, 2011, 09:32:15 PM
We've been spending our cash on all sorts of TEOTWAWKI related items.  It was a toss up: Gold or long-term food stores.  We settled for a little bit of everything.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 18, 2011, 07:46:17 AM
That'll work!

It's nice to buy in bulk and earn better pricing, but it's all a matter of available funds, timing and prioritization of need.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on April 21, 2011, 09:44:04 AM
They're still there, moving up so fast I feel the need for a bump.

WTI-$111.59
Gas-$3.27
Copper-$4.39
Gold-$1,505
Silver-$45.90

several percent a day?  Hello hyperinflation


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 21, 2011, 11:07:00 AM
You would think at some point the remaining independents not yet abandoning Obama & the Dem's will be doing so in droves if the pain increases enough.  Frankly I think the level is intolerable, but jeesh, what's it take for some people to completely break away from these fools and say enough is enough?!

Meanwhile Barry just keeps going to fund raisers to fleece the faithful and BS people into believing all of this misery is all for their own good!

 ::)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 21, 2011, 02:22:00 PM
You would think at some point the remaining independents not yet abandoning Obama & the Dem's will be doing so in droves if the pain increases enough.  Frankly I think the level is intolerable, but jeesh, what's it take for some people to completely break away from these fools and say enough is enough?!

Meanwhile Barry just keeps going to fund raisers to fleece the faithful and BS people into believing all of this misery is all for their own good!

 ::)

Continuing the tangential: IIRC, day before yesterday $32K a plate, yesterday $36K a plate, today $1500 a plate with Jamie Fox and tonight $36K a plate and you get face time.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 21, 2011, 03:12:37 PM
You would think at some point the remaining independents not yet abandoning Obama & the Dem's will be doing so in droves if the pain increases enough.  Frankly I think the level is intolerable, but jeesh, what's it take for some people to completely break away from these fools and say enough is enough?!

Meanwhile Barry just keeps going to fund raisers to fleece the faithful and BS people into believing all of this misery is all for their own good!

 ::)

Continuing the tangential: IIRC, day before yesterday $32K a plate, yesterday $36K a plate, today $1500 a plate with Jamie Fox and tonight $36K a plate and you get face time.



Morons.  Oh, and how much of that loot actually came in illegally from overseas?!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on May 05, 2011, 01:24:47 PM
Now for the crash, as traders start factoring another recession into their trading projections...

WTI-$101.00
Gas-$3.13 (down 19c in one day!)
Copper-$3.99
Gold-$1,478 (this is actually holding fairly firm)
Silver-$36.10 (definitely crashing now)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 05, 2011, 01:40:10 PM
PM's are explainable...

http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,1357.0.html (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,1357.0.html)

I still say stocks have more gas in them...professional gas...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 05, 2011, 04:56:10 PM
Huge Buy Opportunity coming....
The fundamentals have not changed.  The money is still being printed, the Federal government is still headed for default. The State pension funds ar still headed for default. Foriegn Powers  and central banks are continuing to deleverage fomr the dollar. The Middle East is still in Chaos,  Unemployment is still high,and GDP is still little to no growth .. unless all of that changes,  hedging against inflation and an new reserve currency STILL makes sense
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Damn_Lucky on May 05, 2011, 07:55:54 PM
You would think at some point the remaining independents not yet abandoning Obama & the Dem's will be doing so in droves if the pain increases enough.  Frankly I think the level is intolerable, but jeesh, what's it take for some people to completely break away from these fools and say enough is enough?!

Meanwhile Barry just keeps going to fund raisers to fleece the faithful and BS people into believing all of this misery is all for their own good!

 ::)

Continuing the tangential: IIRC, day before yesterday $32K a plate, yesterday $36K a plate, today $1500 a plate with Jamie Fox and tonight $36K a plate and you get face time.

I wouldn't give a stool sample to see him choke on his teleprompter. ::cussing::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: rickl on May 05, 2011, 09:40:43 PM
Karl Denninger had a post about this today:

"But It's All Money Printing!" (http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=185534)
Quote
Are markets going higher?  Based on what?  Expectations on a forward basis and general bullishness are ridiculously high.  Profit projections are for $100 on the SPX for the year.  Really?  With all the input cost pressures already in the cake and unable to come back out for six to nine months?

This was exactly what I was warning about last August when this pattern began to be evident - that those who chased and continued to pile in would eventually get their heads cut off.

Sure, if you just bought with cash back then you're doing fine.  But far too many people did not.  They kept adding off their paper "profits" - margin debt is at extremely high levels, as people piled in more and more as prices rose.

Well, now there's a problem and it's especially bad if you're in a levered instrument such as the futures markets.

You buy a contract that controls $50,000 of the underlying with a margin of $5,000.  The contract's value goes up 10%.  You now have a 100% profit against your margin.  You take that and buy another contract.

What happens if the price goes back to the original level?  You're in trouble, that's what.

Not only is your original $5,000 margin "profit" gone but so is another $5,000, even though price just round-tripped up and then down!  That is, you're now broke as your entire original stake has evaporated into the ether, even though prices are right back to where they were.

If you think this isn't common, you're very wrong.  It is.  Traders blow up in this fashion all the time.  It's idiotic, but it happens on virtually every prolonged move where leverage becomes the gist of the action.  It happened to real estate speculators during the real estate bubble, it happened to tech speculators during the 1990s and now it's happening again.

Might this "stop" at some point before the market really unwinds?  It might.  But there's no guarantee that it will.  In fact, there's plenty of reason to believe it won't - that margin calls will in fact beget more margin calls.

In 2008, these sorts of margin-unwind trades are what fostered the instability that ultimately blew up in everyone's face.  The systemic imbalances in the system are worse now than they were in early 2008, and the policy response available to attempt to stop a collapse are nearly all spent.

Go to the link to see the original text formatting and emphasis.  I lose it when I copy and paste, and I probably only have a few minutes before my computer seizes up again..
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 05, 2011, 09:44:07 PM

Rickl, glad you're back. Do you have a new one?

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: rickl on May 05, 2011, 09:53:24 PM

Rickl, glad you're back. Do you have a new one?



No, I'm still waiting for it.  It looks like I won't get it until Monday.  In the meantime, I can get my current computer to work for a few minutes at a time by using a heat gun.  See here. (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,1289.msg14753.html#msg14753)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 05, 2011, 10:12:21 PM

Quote
Just be aware that you're buying into a margin liquidation, and if the "Cheap Money" disappears, you're going to be dealing with a lot of sleepless nights.

The Bernank said QE2 ends this summer.   This may be a big dipper.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 05, 2011, 11:45:09 PM
The Bernank said QE2 ends this summer.   This may be a big dipper.
Thats only ending the QE that they are telling the public about.  I suspect the Plunge team has their own line of QE access.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 06, 2011, 06:41:27 AM
Yes, the margin calls on the silly people who overextended themselves in futures is causing the sell off, so that musical chairs tune will carry a bit, and once everything settles down the fundamentals imperiling this economy are still very much in play and the march will resume, albeit at a reduced pace.  In the meantime, if you absolutely need to sell positions for retirement needs etc by all means take measures to ensure your short term liquidity needs, but if you are comfortable with waiting by this time next year I am guessing we'll be hearing of the newfound interest in precious metals.

ETA - I plan on buying more, in increments, as I always do, during this reset.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 06, 2011, 08:58:22 AM

Image deleted, CO.




Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 13, 2011, 07:24:35 AM
One source of demand for silver appears not be waning - China!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shanghai-silver-trading-volume-surges-65-last-month?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shanghai-silver-trading-volume-surges-65-last-month?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)

At present it appears the recent price reset might be stabilizing.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 13, 2011, 10:23:52 AM
More tidbits on silver -

http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2011/05/13/essential-support-levels-for-silver-slv-chart/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedisciplinedinvestor%2FEBHR+%28The+Disciplined+Investor%29 (http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2011/05/13/essential-support-levels-for-silver-slv-chart/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedisciplinedinvestor%2FEBHR+%28The+Disciplined+Investor%29)

And an interesting lag/lead analysis on oil & the dollar -

http://www.theessentialsoftrading.com/Blog/index.php/2011/05/13/which-is-leading-the-dollar-or-oil/ (http://www.theessentialsoftrading.com/Blog/index.php/2011/05/13/which-is-leading-the-dollar-or-oil/)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 14, 2011, 09:55:37 AM
And an interesting lag/lead analysis on oil & the dollar -

Causeation and correlation. .. its always hard to see the cause.. when each has an affect on the other, and there are further factors.
 
http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/closer-look-at-new-jobless-claims.html (http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/closer-look-at-new-jobless-claims.html)

A break in the trend of unemployment can also cause oil to drop. Or did it?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 16, 2011, 07:22:37 AM
Statistics...

The skill of the analyst meets the sophistication of the investor and then slams into the fragile psyche of the herd...there is enough variables that reality can either transfer in whole, not at all or something in between depending upon how those pieces react.

But remember, we are told "All is well!", unemployment, inflation...these are just "transitory"!  So is human life, so is the tenure of a bureaucrat!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 16, 2011, 10:12:09 AM
Banker copper vs doctor copper...

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/05/is-this-reason-for-drop-off-in-copper.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FundMyMutualFund+%28Fund+my+Mutual+Fund%29 (http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/05/is-this-reason-for-drop-off-in-copper.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FundMyMutualFund+%28Fund+my+Mutual+Fund%29)

Sometimes when a genie is let out of a bottle, it can be hard putting it back in...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 16, 2011, 10:42:54 AM

This genie is a view into internal problems of China. 

Banks trying to keep money tight. So much demand people seeking alternative sources of funding.
Visions of early to mid-twentieth century wildcatters.

or

How ya going to keep them down on the farm after they've seen Paree'?

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 16, 2011, 11:11:06 AM
"How ya going to keep them down on the farm after they've seen Paree'? "

Heh, nicely put!   ::thumbsup::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 20, 2011, 12:42:32 PM

While searching for market clues Fibonacci (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,486.msg4275.html#msg4275) appears again.

Quote
The chart below (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wagner/may192011.html)  is a daily chart of spot gold. Within this chart is 2 Fibonacci retracement sequences. The longer of the two sequences begins in February 2011 following the January correction (1308). The high for both sequences is the record top of 1577. Using a technique known as Fibonacci harmonics we look for points in which these two Fibonacci sequences overlap or are very close in price.


(http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wagner/images/may192011_4.jpg)


There is a harmonic band at 1479/1474. The 38% retracement of our long sequence is 1474 and the 50% retracement of our short sequence is 1479.  Gold would trade to an intraday low of 1461, however on a closing basis gold never traded below 1474. This harmonic band would prove to be a strong support level. As of now 1461 could very well be the low of this correction. Based on our current Elliott wave count after the conclusion of this corrective wave we will begin a final impulse wave.

The "we will begin a final impulse wave." part sounds ominous.


It's About Liberty link to Kitco article (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wagner/may192011.html)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 21, 2011, 09:18:22 AM
Yeah, and warp speed always follows an impulse burn!

 ::speechless::

I figured something in the $1500 range was the new support, thanks for getting that data Charles.  Now we'll see if people wise up (I doubt it) or if the PTB's continue business-as-usual and provide more impulse!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 23, 2011, 07:24:05 AM
$33-35 support level for Silver seems to be established.  It's floating in the high 34's right now.  I hear rumblings that another round of QE could be coming...QE3 would kick-start another rally in PM's!

Also, came across the note linked below.  I like Zerohedge, and this take on CFTC, Silver & the market is a good read.  Some of the folks commenting make good points too, but Zero's popularity draws in many types so sidebars and off-topic discussions are common.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/things-make-you-go-hmmm-such-cftcs-endless-investigation-silver-manipulation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/things-make-you-go-hmmm-such-cftcs-endless-investigation-silver-manipulation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 23, 2011, 09:52:51 AM

""Endless" Investigation Of Silver Manipulation"

They'll get their man. This is how they got the Bass brothers.  What they were doing was legal until "they" decided it was illegal and busted them.   hmmm, think it was the Carter people that nabbed them.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 23, 2011, 10:24:33 AM

""Endless" Investigation Of Silver Manipulation"

They'll get their man. This is how they got the Bass brothers.  What they were doing was legal until "they" decided it was illegal and busted them.   hmmm, think it was the Carter people that nabbed them.



I believe you are right!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 31, 2011, 09:47:45 AM

On Varney, *Gil Morales said his expectation is up to $50 silver and $1700 to $2000 gold.

*
Gil Morales, thevirtueofselfishinvesting, protege of William O'Neil and current principal and CEO of the money management firm Gil Morales & Company, is a self-described plunger.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 01, 2011, 07:12:33 AM
Self-described plunger...is that a confession?!  ;D

Did he give a timeframe?  I could see those targets at year end.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 01, 2011, 10:08:03 AM

He predicted the drop right before it happened and sold as of the 23rd he's back in until it hits his prediction.



Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 01, 2011, 11:23:00 AM
Thanks Charles.

I think QE3 is going to be too irresistible for these idiots to pass up, so more impetus to push precious metals beyond what is already there pushing it is all but certain.  Buying back in makes perfect sense to me.  Or, for those like myself who stayed in, buying more!

 ::thumbsup::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 01, 2011, 05:59:33 PM

The siren song thought that the 1980 high dollar equivalent is 2200 keeps me holding and watching. 
I probably won't make it to 22.

 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 06, 2011, 09:45:07 AM
 ::gaah::

Economist Dennis Gartman Is ‘Nervous,’ Cuts His Gold ...

Jun 03, 2011 · Dennis Gartman , the economist and editor of the Gartman Letter who correctly forecast 2008’s commodities slump, cut his gold position by half today and ...
www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-03/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-03/)?gartman-sells-50-of-gold-holding-after-decline-says..

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Market Nuggets: Gartman Re-Establishes Long Gold Positions

06 June 2011, 08:59 a.m.
By Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/ (http://www.kitco.com/)

(Kitco News) -- Newsletter writer Dennis Gartman says he is re-establishing his long gold position. He closed half of his position early Friday on fears of a further correction, “and in retrospect we were right to have done so for the risks were large.” However, Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report left the Federal Reserve no choice but to aggressively maintain easy monetary policy, prompting Gartman to “get back that which we sold.” Even when he exited some of his position Friday, Gartman says, he was not bearish but simply less bullish for the time being. He continues to favor gold in non-dollar terms and notes, as of when he wrote his Monday's daily The Gartman Letter, gold was below where he sold it Friday in euro terms and only marginally above where he had sold it in sterling terms. “Little damage, if any, has been done, and the trends are still firmly in our favor. We return then to what we had had previously, likely to less fanfare than when we exited.”

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 ::gaah::

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 06, 2011, 11:20:55 AM
Wha...???

WTF kind of economist is this?  What good news was he seeing from the imbecilic PTB's that have been driving the dollar down and unemployment, debt and regulation up that made him skittish and jump out?  And then more bad news comes on Friday and oops, time to jump back in?  His readers must be asking wtf they are subscribing to this clown!

 :P
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 06, 2011, 12:01:31 PM
[blockquote]
Quote
May 17, 2011
 ...
Billionaire financier George Soros, who called gold "the ultimate bubble", dumped almost his entire $US800 million ($757 million) stake in bullion in the first quarter, well before a commodities slump blamed partly on reports he was liquidating his holdings.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ultimate-bubble--soros-sells-out-of-gold-20110517-1equp.html#ixzz1OWH7NtJq (http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ultimate-bubble--soros-sells-out-of-gold-20110517-1equp.html#ixzz1OWH7NtJq)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/05/31/good-as-gold-george-soros-sells-the-metal-buys-the.aspx (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/05/31/good-as-gold-george-soros-sells-the-metal-buys-the.aspx)

May 31, 2011

Even the most successful investors in the world can't agree on how to interpret this. John Paulson is buying gold. George Soros, selling. ...
But there is a better way to invest in gold now. Just watch Soros. Soros is selling his gold but buying miners.
[/blockquote]

Soros is selling gold........sort of.



Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 06, 2011, 12:06:30 PM
Yeah, that doesn't smell good to me...getting to the source means he has more leverage to manipulate and control...I don't like Darth Soros having control over squat!

Seriously, I cannot stand that man, and I cannot say what I really think, but this is an ominous move IMO and one which could have major implications for just about everybody.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on June 06, 2011, 12:17:33 PM
His readers must be asking wtf they are subscribing to this clown!

Ranking the Gurus..

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/ranking-gurus.html (http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/ranking-gurus.html)


Most of the so called experts have no idea what to make of this-- its uncharted waters.. The world's reserve currency is at stake, the geo-politics are really complicated, and we have elements in our own government rooting for and trying to plan our collapse.  It makes it hard to predict. Or does it?:

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/return-of-order-in-stock-market.html (http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/return-of-order-in-stock-market.html)

In theory we are seeing order return to the market. Of course he doesn't know if this is investors figuring it out, or if it is thr Fed creating the order artificially.

Eitherway, I am pretty much betting on bad news, and Gold is not going to plunge to $300 an oz in one day. If it looses $400 in value then something is up, $50 moves is the the volatility we can expect.
 



Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on June 06, 2011, 12:26:39 PM
Yeah, that doesn't smell good to me...getting to the source means he has more leverage to manipulate and control...I don't like Darth Soros having control over squat!

Seriously, I cannot stand that man, and I cannot say what I really think, but this is an ominous move IMO and one which could have major implications for just about everybody.


Soros sold mostly paper holdings.  You have to rememeber that not all gold on Comex is backed by physical metal. If you are investing in Gold any you aren't holding, then you better be  playing manimpulation/momentum/short-term plays. Eventually the demand for the physcial metal will result in a game of musical chairs, and its best to have your chair in hand if you are going to be playing for the long haul.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 07, 2011, 06:42:32 AM
Yeah, that doesn't smell good to me...getting to the source means he has more leverage to manipulate and control...I don't like Darth Soros having control over squat!

Seriously, I cannot stand that man, and I cannot say what I really think, but this is an ominous move IMO and one which could have major implications for just about everybody.


Soros sold mostly paper holdings.  You have to rememeber that not all gold on Comex is backed by physical metal. If you are investing in Gold any you aren't holding, then you better be  playing manimpulation/momentum/short-term plays. Eventually the demand for the physcial metal will result in a game of musical chairs, and its best to have your chair in hand if you are going to be playing for the long haul.


That he sold whatever doesn't bother me.  Do you want to be in the position of having Soros control huge quantities of precious metals?  Not me!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 07, 2011, 06:43:58 AM
Here's a good take - the money phrase of the summer: "load up the truck"!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/update-dowgold-ratio-drop-it-it%E2%80%99s-hot?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/update-dowgold-ratio-drop-it-it%E2%80%99s-hot?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 09, 2011, 07:08:05 AM
OPEC, EU et all doing all they can to support gold...and silver getting a bounce from industrial demand (solar panels!)...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/worst-ever-opec-meeting-sees-oil-rise-sharply-%E2%80%93-inflation-pressures-growth-and-sovereign-deb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/worst-ever-opec-meeting-sees-oil-rise-sharply-%E2%80%93-inflation-pressures-growth-and-sovereign-deb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 09, 2011, 11:14:35 AM
Corn inflation coming at ya!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/corn-prices-near-record-plunge-corn-stocks-china-use-surge-us-tightest-corn-supply-levels-15?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/corn-prices-near-record-plunge-corn-stocks-china-use-surge-us-tightest-corn-supply-levels-15?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 09, 2011, 12:14:43 PM

Who is Tyler Durden?

Zero Hedge is interesting and thoughtful but I can't find information about the authors.
What am I missing?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 09, 2011, 12:41:16 PM

Who is Tyler Durden?

Zero Hedge is interesting and thoughtful but I can't find information about the authors.
What am I missing?

It's a psuedonym, but their data is usually sourced and can be verified.

This is Wiki's info, FWIW -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 09, 2011, 01:31:18 PM

Thanks

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 21, 2011, 07:32:52 AM
India appears to be gobbling up more gold & silver...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/indian-gold-and-silver-imports-surge-stunning-500-may?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/indian-gold-and-silver-imports-surge-stunning-500-may?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)

...cue up QE3 and we could really see a big runnup in prices!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 21, 2011, 09:35:52 PM
[blockquote]
Quote
SINGAPORE, June 22 (Reuters) - Gold edged down on Wednesday  ahead of the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting,
...
 * The Fed is expected to cut its growth forecast for 2011,    
but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke probably will continue to argue
the slowdown is temporary.
[/blockquote]   ::hysterical::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 21, 2011, 09:39:20 PM

Stinky, my computer, is timing out on the Zero_indian_gold_link, actually it's timing out on the home page.  See you on the morrow.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 22, 2011, 06:55:21 AM
All is transitory, so saith The Fed.

Hopefully your issue with Stinky really is transitory!

 ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 22, 2011, 08:39:50 AM
Thanks.

Yeah, it appears India see's the transition written on the wall and intends to make it through the transition as a player not a subordinate.  They're doing the same thing with their military.


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 22, 2011, 09:26:07 AM

[blockquote]
Quote
...focus for the moment has turned to the Wednesday afternoon conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference following the meeting.
[/blockquote]
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 22, 2011, 11:26:59 AM

[blockquote]
Quote
...focus for the moment has turned to the Wednesday afternoon conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference following the meeting.
[/blockquote]

They boxed themselves in.  No change in rates, QE2 wraps up this month, all they can do is give an inkling if QE3 is in the works and if all the bad news is still transitory or not!

Oh, and as far as bad news goes, here's some more!

http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,1959.new.html#new (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,1959.new.html#new)

 ::lalanotlistening::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 23, 2011, 07:20:02 AM
More herding going on...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-exchange-halts-levered-otc-gold-and-silver-trading?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-exchange-halts-levered-otc-gold-and-silver-trading?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on June 23, 2011, 07:29:31 AM
All I know about Forex is incredible amounts of usenet spam promising me riches, so maybe there is fraud with that particular outlet.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 23, 2011, 09:23:47 AM
IAE is releasing 60m barrels to offset loss of Libyan production, and between that, a global economy crapping itself and Ben Bernanke admiting he's clueless oil is down to $90.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/iea-release-60-million-barrels-over-coming-months-ensure-supply-due-libya?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/iea-release-60-million-barrels-over-coming-months-ensure-supply-due-libya?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 23, 2011, 09:52:58 AM

Au - 1516.20

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 24, 2011, 02:11:47 PM

[blockquote]
Quote
Comex Gold Drops Below $1,500.00 in Late-Session Selling Spree

24 June 2011, 01:29 p.m.
By Jim Wyckoff
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/ (http://www.kitco.com/)

(Kitco News) - August Comex gold futures dropped sharply lower in late-session U.S. trading Friday, with prices dropping below pyschologically important support at $1,500.00. Prices had hit a low of $1,498.50 as of this writing. A firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices in late trading Friday added to the bearish sentiment in gold. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted in gold futures late this week as a five-month-old uptrend line on the daily bar chart has at least temporarily been negated as prices also closed at a technically bearish weekly low close on Friday
[/blockquote]


As of this writing it's 1501.60

WTF?

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on June 24, 2011, 02:54:58 PM
Soros advertising he's selling his gold again?
Title: A
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 24, 2011, 03:17:03 PM

Sources say it's the relief from fear created by the lowering price of oil.  If that's all it is they are idiots.
Bahmnake released just enough to recover from his terrible latest poll slump. More C&C economy. This is the carrot part of QE3.

Libertas must be Crappie fishing again and TitanTrader hasn't darkened the door since he got fed up with BananoBot.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 27, 2011, 07:25:35 AM
Freezer is full of fish, there will be a fish fry on the 4th!   ::whoohoo::

As for gold, there has been some margin calls...again.  I know Soros was selling some paper-based positions and buying up mining companies, haven't heard if that Sith Lord is up to anything else, but that's too much for me anyway!  A POS like that owning the means of production!  
 ::speechless::

For oil, here's a good take.  Demand is slack anyway with depressed economies, the SPR releases are largely political in nature, the trend was down for oil at the time they announced this, so outside of short-term manipulation there was no reason for it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/poorly-timed-spr-oil-release-could-cost-us-taxpayers-15-billion?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/poorly-timed-spr-oil-release-could-cost-us-taxpayers-15-billion?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 07, 2011, 07:06:16 AM
SPR follow up...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spr-backfire-trade?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spr-backfire-trade?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)

Getting past the fear-mongering of oil companies in his lead in (I do not view oil companies as bad guys!) the price analysis seems right to me and proves this move was purely political, but the PTB's in The Regime fail to realize how short term and artificial a drop in price at the gas pumps is.  What are they gonna do, slowly bleed the SPR empty through election day?  Something so obvious cannot go unchallenged, but The Regime is caught between damnation and hell and they will be desperate to manufacture ways to sprinkle candy on turds in this economy any way they can!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on July 07, 2011, 10:22:37 AM
[blockquote]
Quote
Your average large crude carrier has an operating cost of $60,000 per day. It takes 10 extra days to deliver crude at the LOOP [Louisiana] versus Rotterdam (5 days in, 5 days out). Therefore there is an opportunity cost of $600k to make a USA delivery.

This is the equivalent of another 65 cents on the Brent spread. As of today the adjusted Bent/LLS discount is $3.85. That comes to about $4 million on a 1mm brl. [one tanker ship] cargo.

The obvious conclusion from the Greek shipper is that cargoes are going to be diverted away from Louisiana as result of the negative spread. There is big money to be made.
[/blockquote]

Obama, ever the businessman, looking out for America.\


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 07, 2011, 11:19:22 AM
Obama, master of the "negative spread"!

 ::unknowncomic::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 13, 2011, 10:02:20 AM
Gold is up, and silver is really up!

I guess people see the PTB's lining up to make all the same mistakes some more and the value of the dollar is going to crap itself again...

Misght as well own somehting real!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on July 14, 2011, 07:33:52 AM
Yep, all headed up again

Gold - $1,590
Silver - $39.00
Oil, WTI - $98.24
Gas, wholesale - $3.13 + taxes
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on July 14, 2011, 10:56:20 AM

Read it all at: LINK (http://www.barnhardt.biz/)

[blockquote]
Quote
The DX is 78.3% comprised of European currencies, with the Euro itself being the majority of the entire basket. Thus, if Europe collapses and we collapse, we will both be sucking together, but the relative mathematical relationship between the currencies might not change that much. If The Captain jumps out of a plane and two seconds later Toni Tennille jumps out of the same plane, they will be plummeting toward the ground at the same speed with only the two-second lag between their respective jumps between them. But they will both be falling.

So, if today a loaf of bread in the U.S. costs $3.00 and that same loaf of bread costs 2.13 Euros, that means that the Euro exchange rate is 1.41 Euros per Dollar.

If our economies implode and hyper inflation kicks in, that same loaf of bread might cost $3000.00 and the loaf in Europe might cost 2200.00 Euros. That would be an exchange rate of 1.36 Euros per Dollar. That's not much difference on a relative basis, huh? Does that mean that the Dollar has strengthened against the Euro and therefore everything is awesome? Of course not, but that is EXACTLY the line of taurusfimus that the *Combine would get on TV and spew.

So how do we measure these fiat currencies as a whole? How do we cut the taurusfimus and get down to the nitty-gritty? WHAT IS THE NITTY-GRITTY?

Gold.

We know that all fiat currencies all over the world are getting their butts kicked collectively and that inflation is happening even though they are strengthening relative to the Dollar because Gold is $1580 per ounce. The whole thing is collapsing with the Dollar leading the way simply because it is historically weak relative to the basket. Yes, the Canadians are loving the relative relationship to the Dollar, but the entire system is still falling. And in my $3000 loaf of bread example, gold would probably be trading for something like $1,600,000 per ounce assuming a very simplistic linear relationship. That would tend to get people's attention, don't you think?

Now do you see why Bernanke wants to delegitimize gold and denied that it was money today? Gold is what shines the light of truth on our economic and inflationary situation. Gold is the bottom-line metric. If the Combine can get rid of or otherwise suppress the measuring stick, they can convince The Captain and Toni Tennille that they aren't falling, everything is fine, and no, you don't need to deploy a parachute, because LOOK! You aren't moving relative to each other, so therefore you must not be moving at all.

Love, love will keep us together, think of me babe when . . . SPLAT.
[/blockquote]

Captain and Tennille - Love Will Keep Us Together (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjloX_EvYiI#)

*THE COMBINE

A combine is defined as a combination of persons or groups for the furtherance of their political, commercial, or other interests, as a syndicate or cartel.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 14, 2011, 11:36:41 AM
Ann is feisty, and pointing out the neked truth is a lot more entertaining coming out of her mouth than mine!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on July 14, 2011, 03:38:45 PM
"Taurusfimus".

I only needed to read that word to know it was her without checking the link.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 15, 2011, 06:46:56 AM
Yeah, that's definitiely an Ann identifier.

That and the way she likes to swoop in for the kill.

 ::thumbsup::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 18, 2011, 06:50:51 AM
The latest peak at the numbers.

With QE3 and stagflation on the horizon it will be ready for another big runnup shortly.  2012 could be a banner year of buffoonery as the Ruling Class goes hog wild with all manner of witch-doctoring in a last ditch effort to save their bacon!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-1602-silver-over-40-launch-another-risk-week?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-1602-silver-over-40-launch-another-risk-week?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on July 18, 2011, 10:18:50 AM

Quote
Unless a miracle appears out of nowhere to save the Eurozone and its fake paper currency, we expect $2,000 by the end of the year in gold, while silver should promptly regain its all time nominal highs of just over $50.

$2,000/$2,200 in 1980 dollars is about the Jimmy Carter high.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 18, 2011, 11:14:57 AM
Welcome Back Carter...the ObamaDepression...whatever you call it I hope all those SOB's that voted for this POS get their asses kicked!

 ::rockethrow::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 19, 2011, 06:49:12 AM
A short and relatively bland posting by Tyler on ZeroHedge about gold, but the comments are entertaining and some are even interesting.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-gold-and-stocks-love-inflation-right?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-gold-and-stocks-love-inflation-right?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)

This post on Seeking Alpha about Platinum is worth a gander...seems to be some indications pointing to a run up in that market, the analysis is sound but as in many cases it could use more confirmation of data, but in this business acting on the information you have and using your best judgement is often all you have, otherwise events will overtake you...which can make your financial positions tenuous as well.  Fortuna favet fortibus.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/279791-why-a-large-upward-price-movement-in-platinum-is-ahead?source=feed (http://seekingalpha.com/article/279791-why-a-large-upward-price-movement-in-platinum-is-ahead?source=feed)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 22, 2011, 07:22:35 AM
Good info on silver market.  Much of this will either be too esoteric or maybe repetitive for folks, but my main takeaway is this - "At some point, the market will wake up to the fact that silver is in much shorter supply than current appreciated. At that point, the price will go much, much higher."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-david-morgan-silver-price-manipulation-delivery-default-supply-shortage-risks?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-david-morgan-silver-price-manipulation-delivery-default-supply-shortage-risks?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 25, 2011, 10:30:34 AM
Good read on silver & gold, which are both up again this morning.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-gold-and-silver-we-were-right-%E2%80%93-they-were-wrong?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-gold-and-silver-we-were-right-%E2%80%93-they-were-wrong?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 02, 2011, 11:54:01 AM
PM's rising again.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43979108 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/43979108)

Just wait till QE3 starts...

Au up $23 today, Ag up almost $1.

Perhaps the morons should raise the credit card another $100T, I bet I could see some real movement then.

/

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 02, 2011, 06:45:57 PM

Comex Gold Extends Record High As Equities Tumble (http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20110802.html)

Comex gold kept extending its record high in after-hours screen trading as investors sought a safe haven for their money as equities broke lower. The S&P futures have fallen below their 200-day moving average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is below the psychologically important 12,000 level, leading to buying in gold, says Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with Olympus Futures. The market is showing disappointment in the budget and deficit-ceiling bill that has been signed into law, he says. “Now it’s done and you have both sides realizing in 11th-hour deals, nobody gets what they wanted and you probably get the worst deal you could put together,” Nedoss says. Further, the stock market already was still reeling from a weak report on consumer spending. Nedoss points out that both the dollar and gold have risen rather than trading inversely to one another, reflecting a safe-haven trade. As of 4:04 p.m. EDT, Comex December gold was $37.20 higher at $1,658.90 an ounce. It peaked at $1,661.80, a record for a most-active contract.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 03, 2011, 07:00:30 AM
Yup.

And SNB impact here -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/snb-intervenes-lower-massively-overvalued-franc-leaves-gold-only-safe-haven-currency?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/snb-intervenes-lower-massively-overvalued-franc-leaves-gold-only-safe-haven-currency?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29)

Let's super-size this safe haven!

 ::newyear::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 03, 2011, 09:25:29 AM

Bid/Ask    1669.20 -    1670.20

Comex Gold Powers to Another Record High; Bulls Now Eyeing $1,700.00 - Kitco News, Aug 3 2011 8:13AM
Gold Prices Spike as Recession Worries Spread - The Street, Aug 3 2011 9:08AM
UPDATE 2-Emerging world buys $10 bln in gold as West wobbles - Reuters, Aug 3 2011 8:23AM
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 03, 2011, 11:20:32 AM
That last point is a real stinker ain't it?

Telling America they are not impressed!

Can't say I blame them, but it is all thanks to the desire of morons to follow Obama down the drain...

 ::)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 08, 2011, 05:56:23 PM

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110808JW_pm.html

Aug 08, 2011 18:46 NY Time   Bid/Ask    1722.30 - 1723.30

2:12 p.m
The precious yellow metal saw strong safe-haven investment demand after the U.S. got a credit downgrade late Friday and as the European Union attempts to contain its own escalating debt crisis.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 09, 2011, 06:58:52 AM
Can you take me higher?

Yeah baby! 

Betting on destruction makes it easy, and there ain't nuthin' more destructive than The Regime!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 18, 2011, 06:06:15 PM

Sold American!  1823.22.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: rickl on August 18, 2011, 06:34:56 PM
I sure ain't buying now.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 22, 2011, 07:39:16 AM
I bought more silver when it was below 40, no way in hell is that not going up more.

Gold is a solid hold.

Up up and away...and the next round of QE hasn't even kicked in yet...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on August 22, 2011, 07:48:02 AM
It's really getting hard to hang on, considering I bought all mine in the 90's.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 22, 2011, 10:20:46 AM


The 5th Dimension - Up, Up and Away (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HC9yD8YqXYI#)


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 22, 2011, 11:03:07 AM
It's really getting hard to hang on, considering I bought all mine in the 90's.

I hear ya.  If you have needs to address that would be taken care of with some liquidation of position the temptation must be palpable.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 23, 2011, 06:59:38 AM
A breather, then, off we go again...seems to fit the pattern.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-soars-trading-reopens-hits-88-away-2000 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-soars-trading-reopens-hits-88-away-2000)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 23, 2011, 07:16:24 PM
Saudi Press Agency (http://www.spa.gov.sa/English/cdetails.php?id=919977&catid=11)   [blockquote]
Quote
Berlin, ...A leading member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's
government called Tuesday for cash-strapped eurozone members to use
their gold reserves as collateral for any future bailouts, according to dpa.

Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen said in the future that money
from the European Union-led rescue fund should only be paid out when
the states receiving the assistance provided collateral.

Von der Leyen believes that the gold reserves and industrial
holdings held by many nations could be used as collateral for loans,
according to information from German public television. ...
...

[/blockquote]

 ::hysterical::
                                                                                                      
                                                                                      

                                                                                           ::pimp::

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 24, 2011, 06:35:45 AM
If they were cash-strapped...

Oh, never mind!

 ::unknowncomic::

In other news - More margin hits for gold driving prices down, this time in Shanghai, with action on silver lurking...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/precious-metal-margin-warfare-jumps-pacific-shanghai-hikes-gold-margins-second-time-month-prepa (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/precious-metal-margin-warfare-jumps-pacific-shanghai-hikes-gold-margins-second-time-month-prepa)

That's fine with me, hit your customers, dump holdings to cover, silver dips below $40 and I'll buy more thank you very much!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 24, 2011, 02:27:15 PM
I bought some more silver today after it dipped to the low 39's.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 24, 2011, 03:29:28 PM

My friend, you are a true believer.  I'm in hold or sell mode. 
Although, all things considered, 2200 being the peak in the 80s and this run being worse it could go to 3 before it falls.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 24, 2011, 08:24:31 PM
Betting on stupid to continue seems the only logical play.  I'm not fearful of bubble scares, it would require a return to sane policies and something better to invest in for that fear to be true. Hell. I'd go in top end commercial paper before anything else, it's the only other thing holding up right now.

ETA - Oh, and currency plays against the fiat currency too of course!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Damn_Lucky on August 24, 2011, 08:32:29 PM
Have Food Will Barter! ::cool::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 24, 2011, 08:50:55 PM
Yep, good call, can't forget about any barter items!

 ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 24, 2011, 10:06:54 PM
ZeroHedge prescience
and if marketmakers keep this up
they are going to be played. IMHO

[blockquote]
Quote

CME Next  (http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL4E7JP00620110825?sp=true)

Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:12am GMT
... while a margin hike in COMEX gold may further weigh on sentiment.

[/blockquote]

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on August 26, 2011, 07:12:25 AM
I thought oil was dropping, but locally SuperAmerica/Speedway declared it gouge day, and all the lemmings have followed them (as they do in all markets controlled by this chain) so let's see...

WTI - $84.65
Gas - $2.96, + 55c or so for taxes shipping  = $3.51...which is why SA is gouging $3.859   ::rockets::
Copper - $4.14
Gold $1,793.50 (that plunge lasted a long time...  ::))
Silver $41.19


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 26, 2011, 10:08:58 AM

The Bernank let it ride, thought he would help it along.  Surprise, surprise.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 29, 2011, 08:18:30 AM
20EMA (Exponential Moving Average) -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-has-gold-unwound-its-overbought-status (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-has-gold-unwound-its-overbought-status)

I agree with a temporary pullback and then the march will go on.

Here's a chart that's a little easier to read -

http://www.trading-naked.com/Powerof20ema.htm (http://www.trading-naked.com/Powerof20ema.htm)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 31, 2011, 07:23:28 AM
More form the "Holy sh*t!" files courtesy of ZeroHedge -

First, the gold/confidence ratio, exhibiting "head & shoulders pattern", we can discuss the assumptions and actual level gold may hit, that it is going up is undeniable...this statement sums it all up quite succinctly - "For the bubble to deflate, the debt must disappear, or the gold price must rise."  Anybody think much debt is going away?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-rise-and-fall-us-confidence-or-why-fair-value-gold-phase-space-6000-12000 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-rise-and-fall-us-confidence-or-why-fair-value-gold-phase-space-6000-12000)

Second, silver is poised for another run, possibly hitting $50 this fall.  Lots of good info & charts!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/silver-ready-breakout-technicals-and-fundamentals-suggest-50oz-early-autumn (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/silver-ready-breakout-technicals-and-fundamentals-suggest-50oz-early-autumn)

And there are whispers in the wind that QE3 is poised to release on or about September 21st, so once that gets factored in these two could experience much stronger increases.

ETA - Oh, and BPP at 4% & rising seems it will also be more gas for the fire...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/annual-inflation-hits-4 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/annual-inflation-hits-4)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 31, 2011, 10:26:39 AM
More form the "Holy sh*t!" files courtesy of ZeroHedge -

First, the gold/confidence ratio, exhibiting "head & shoulders pattern", we can discuss the assumptions and actual level gold may hit, that it is going up is undeniable...this statement sums it all up quite succinctly - "For the bubble to deflate, the debt must disappear, or the gold price must rise."  Anybody think much debt is going away?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-rise-and-fall-us-confidence-or-why-fair-value-gold-phase-space-6000-12000 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-rise-and-fall-us-confidence-or-why-fair-value-gold-phase-space-6000-12000)

Second, silver is poised for another run, possibly hitting $50 this fall.  Lots of good info & charts!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/silver-ready-breakout-technicals-and-fundamentals-suggest-50oz-early-autumn (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/silver-ready-breakout-technicals-and-fundamentals-suggest-50oz-early-autumn)

And there are whispers in the wind that QE3 is poised to release on or about September 21st, so once that gets factored in these two could experience much stronger increases.

ETA - Oh, and BPP at 4% & rising seems it will also be more gas for the fire...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/annual-inflation-hits-4 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/annual-inflation-hits-4)

(http://www.msnheaven.com/content/avatars/25/MSNHeaven098.gif)


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 01, 2011, 11:41:30 PM

(Kitco News) (http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20110901.html)
 - The U.S. Mint sold more ounces of gold and silver bullion coins in August than it previously had since January. Total sales of American Eagle gold coins rose to 112,000 ounces in August, the Mint’s Web site shows. This is up 73.6% from 64,500 in July and the most since 133,500 ounces were sold in January. Further, the figure represents a 170% rise from the same month in 2010. However, figures for the year to date are down from last year. ...
...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 02, 2011, 07:15:07 AM
I guess the mint likes devalued currency more than appreciating reserves...either they are batsh*t crazy and will do anything for liquidity or they know something we don't...

As far as that latter part...they know they can confiscate the gold & silver back later and offer only pennies on the dollar since the currency won't be worth crap!  Bastards think they can fleece in both directions!

People should only be buying private bullion!

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 02, 2011, 09:00:47 AM

Skimmed something about that a couple of weeks ago, I interpreted it to say others, like the Maple leaf,  were OK.

?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 02, 2011, 09:15:45 AM
Yes, other nations may not come beating on thier customers doors later demanding them back!

Caveat emptor.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 22, 2011, 07:30:05 AM
Frankly, I think there are just so many issues with this sceanrio that making a 1930's FDR-style gold-grab unlikely...but who knows for sure?  Interesting read anyway...

Don Coxe's Fascinating Take On Why The Time For The US To "LBO" The Gold Market Has Arrived
Via ZeroHedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/don-coxes-must-read-take-why-time-us-lbo-gold-market-has-arrived (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/don-coxes-must-read-take-why-time-us-lbo-gold-market-has-arrived)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 24, 2011, 05:48:19 AM

They increased the margins because it was too hot, now they are increasing margins because...

23 September 2011, 4:55 p.m.

http://www.kitco.com/ (http://www.kitco.com/)

(Kitco News) - The CME Group is raising the margins needed to trade Comex gold and silver futures are being increased by 21.5% and 15.6%, respectively, and the change will take effect after the close of business on Monday, the exchange said late Friday in a press release.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 25, 2011, 06:22:28 PM

http://www.kitco.com/
Sep 25, 2011 19:07 NY Time

Bid/Ask    1640.60 -    1641.60
Change    -16.60        -1.00%
30daychg    -188.50    -10.31%

Quote
Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/25/us-imf-idUSTRE78N1JE20110925)

Let's start doing something,'" said Austan Goolsbee, formerly chief White House economic advisor.

"I mean, they're not actually doing anything. They just keep agreeing that they're going to work in concert."


bonnie raitt - something to talk about (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z04r_tlWdRs#)


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 26, 2011, 07:08:13 AM
I'm sure the central bankers and Keynesian's the world over are pleased at this recent pullback in precious metals...but their short-term currency bounce will be short lived, their insanity ensures it.

And the ChiCom's don't want to be left out of the fun either...Shanghai bumped their margins up to 18% -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shanghai-gold-exchange-hikes-silver-margin-20 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shanghai-gold-exchange-hikes-silver-margin-20)

Trying to scare the futures traders with shutdowns...tsk, tsk, tsk!

Screw Shanghai and ANY cHI-cOM exchange anyway...if you're trading in that market the term risk averse doesn't exists in your universe!

On a real world note, economic decline is beginning to take its toll on some investors, feeling the pinch they have been selling, this is predictable and will happen occasionally just like the margin games.  Overall what is happening in the Neo-Keynesian banking world and world governments on a fundamental level that can sustain a drop in precious metal prices?  There may be some more downward action, but I foresee another buying binge coming on soon...

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 03, 2011, 03:05:47 PM
Gold moving down synonymous with the market is odd.  There have been several rationals
that didn't follow the traditional bs.  Below is a bit of information heretofore unseen.


Link (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/battered-gold-bugs-still-defying-bear-raid-2011-10-03?link=home_carousel)

Quote
The break has provoked a great deal of suspicion. Veteran Ross Norman, now of the U.K. gold-dealing site Sharps Pixley, remarked of the sellers: “Placing such a huge order into the market when the least number of market participants were active tells you that they were out for dramatic effect. Anyone looking to offload significant amounts of metal at the best possible price would have done so when both London and New York were both [open]. … Clearly finessing gold into the market was not their motive — they wanted a statement.“

Manipulation is seems more accurate than the gobble-de-gook about the sell off because of EU fears.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 03, 2011, 09:39:25 PM
Liquidity fears come and go.  Like everything now, instability is the order of the day, so movements can go from boring to what-the-! at any time.  This reeks of money center manipulation though, shoring up currency to combat debt fears.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 06, 2011, 10:03:47 AM

An observer may assume this is one more step toward gold becoming the reserve currency.

Quote
LCH.Clearnet To Accept Gold As Collateral (http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20111006.html)

(Kitco News) - LCH.Clearnet, the London-based clearing house, says it will begin to accept gold bullion as eligible collateral by the end of the month, subject to final regulatory approval. The firm says by offering gold for margin liability, it gives its market participants more flexibility. The initiative is supported by the World Gold Council, who recently submitted evidence to the Basel Committee for gold to be included in banks' "Tier 1" assets by European banking regulators. The gold will be lodged in vaults in London. The quality and fineness of the 400-troy ounce gold bars will be based on the LBMA Good Delivery List. In December 2010, LCH.Clearnet launched the first clearing service for the over-the-counter wholesale London gold market in a joint initiative with the London Metal Exchange.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitcodotcom

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 06, 2011, 11:52:26 AM
Hmmm....

I wonder what those without gold to back up their currency might be subject to...I guess we'll find out.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 14, 2011, 07:53:34 AM
Interesting breakdown on gold -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-top-2000-central-bank-buying-bloomberg-chart-day (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-top-2000-central-bank-buying-bloomberg-chart-day)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 14, 2011, 05:53:02 PM

Very interesting article, here's a fun tidbit:

The world of 2011 is very different to that of 1980.

In 1980, the US was the world’s largest creditor nation. Today, it is the world’s largest debtor nation – the largest debtor nation the world has ever seen.

In 1980, China was a communist country whose citizens were banned from owning gold. Today, there are 1.3 billion Chinese people and a growing middle class who can buy gold.

The Chinese central bank did not have any currency reserves in 1980, today they have $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

Similarly, India, China, Brazil and other emerging markets were debtor nations in 1980 today they are creditor nations with massive foreign exchange reserves denominated primarily in dollars.

In 1980, the much of the world was coming out of a period recession and stagflation. Today, we appear to be on the verge of a recession or Depression possibly involving stagflation again.

In 1980, there was no banking or sovereign debt crisis and no risk of global financial and economic contagion.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 15, 2011, 01:03:14 PM
And the wheel turns...

...and it doesn't care what it crushes or carries...


...it just keeps rolling.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 16, 2011, 01:47:51 PM

14 October 2011, 2:16 p.m.

In the Kitco (http://www.kitco.com/) News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 21 see prices up, while three see prices down and one sees prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.


5238
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 16, 2011, 02:02:33 PM


14 October 2011, 2:16 p.m.

In the Kitco (http://www.kitco.com/) News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 21 see prices up, while three see prices down and one sees prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.


5238

LCH.Clearnet, gold bullion as eligible collateral, were not the first to accept gold as collateral.

Link (http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/2741/cme-groups-decision-to-accept-gold-bullion-as-collateral-reflects-golds-growing-appeal-as-alternative-asset-class-to-us-currency-and-debt-securities-2741.html)

20th Oct 2009, 6:08 am
The CME Group (includes Chicago Mercantile Exchange) announced yesterday that it will now accept Gold as trading collateral for exchange members for all its exchange products. This is the first time a recognised exchange has allowed the commodity as an accepted collateral asset. Under the new ruling the CME will allow each exchange member to lodge up to US$200 million worth of physical Gold as collateral against its open trading positions.


And private businesses:

Off-Market/Private Sales (http://largecommercialrealestate.wordpress.com/)


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 16, 2011, 06:38:37 PM
Why would they want something real as collateral?

/

 ::hysterical::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 16, 2011, 07:22:54 PM

Wouldn't you really rather drive a FIAT?   The cost of collateral is going up.

(http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au3650nyb.gif)

Real stuff is becoming more valuable every day.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 17, 2011, 07:10:53 AM
Nothing is going to stop the climb upward, the PTB's of the world are simply incapable of seriously addressing let alone understand the fundamentally destructive nature stifling debt has on economies and currencies.  Manipulations can only postpone judgement day.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 18, 2011, 05:44:08 PM

She wrote this specifically for cattle, I like steak. 
I also think can be applied to commodities in general, some more so than others.

"
Generic Cattle Market Comment
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - October 18, AD 2011 11:15 AM MST
Wow. A post about the cattle markets. Amazing. It's like I'm actually doing my job, or something.


Here is the generic conversation that I have many times per day for all of my cattle people:

Yes, we are making new all-time forever and ever in the history of the universe highs in the cattle market. Yes, I think the market will continue to grind higher. However, the end of the world as we know it does make for significant CHOP. Additionally, much of the liquidity has left the markets. The volume is there, but it is all big hedge funds and computer-driven trading schemes. The actual, real PEOPLE are few and far between. Given this, there is going to be hard-core volatility and there will be downside movements within the context of general choppiness. But the inflationary trend will probably continue.

If you would like to put yourself at ease, it would certainly be fine to buy a put or a vertical put spread and get a floor or a partial floor under the market. This will help you sleep at night and allow you to mentally deal with the chop without panic. Fine. No one will ever criticize you for putting a floor under things while the market is sitting at all-time highs.

DO NOT SHORT THE BOARD OUTRIGHT. Shorting the board outright is just about the riskiest thing you could do in an inflationary environment. And if I also may say, the dumbest. Why in the WORLD would you short an inflating market? Why would you convert your valuable, real cash cattle back into U.S. dollars by selling them on the board? As the market grinds higher (which may turn into GALLOPING higher at any time) not only are you no longer hedged against the inflation, but you are also in the worst possible cash flow position of having to take what fiat currency you have and send it to Chicago in the form of margin calls. The cash cattle on the hoof ARE YOUR PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION. Why would you give that protection up, double-down on the U.S. dollar which is obviously TOAST and will eventually dissolve into worthlessness via inflation, and then call it "risk management"? That's insane.

Risk-limited, only, guys. That means puts or vertical put spreads. Short calls are a marginable short, and thus a no-no. Don't do that. Don't put ANY cap on the top of the market. Leave it WIDE OPEN so that when it runs you are carried right along with it. That is what will save you financially. That ability to ride the wave of inflation and have your wealth hold together is the best possible scenario. DON'T SCREW IT UP.

Rule of thumb: $2.50 premium is the "new normal" in the cattle markets. Start by finding what strike is trading in the $2.50 range and then work from there. The same goes for vertical put spreads. I usually look for a $10 strike spread and then find the highest $10 window that can be bought for $2.50 net. $2.50 in net premium is still less than the initial margin requirement on an outright futures, so you're keeping your cash outlay minimized with zero additional margin call risk. For the average cattleman, this is the only hedge that I can recommend in good conscience. Everything else is uber-risky risk magnification. If you want to play games, go to a casino. Don't send everything you and your family hve built over the decades to Chicago in the form of margin calls because some fool at Cattle-Fax told you that shorting the board is what all of the cool guys do. Cool guys use their brains.
DO NOT SHORT AN INFLATING MARKET. "


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on October 18, 2011, 07:04:58 PM
Yah, okay.  What I got from that?

Blahblahblah .... risk ...... blahblahblah .......DON'T SCREW IT UP ..........
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 18, 2011, 09:04:37 PM
Options market, gotta be real careful what you do there, can lose your ass in no time flat.  Translation to other commodities is a similar lesson, know what you are doing and why and understand what the risks are.  Managing risk is key.  Overextending yourself in either market direction is never wise.  As a general rule I avoid margin buys and too cute transactions.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 18, 2011, 10:03:21 PM
"DO NOT SHORT AN INFLATING MARKET. "

Forget the puts and calls and change the nomenclature to owning
a commodity.  To me it is some of the most concise advice on
how to evaluate your situation.

"The volume is there, but it is all big hedge funds and computer-driven trading schemes. The actual, real PEOPLE are few and far between. Given this, there is going to be hard-core volatility and there will be downside movements within the context of general choppiness. But the inflationary trend will probably continue."

These times we see this day to day and week through week.

"Why in the WORLD would you short [sell what you own in] an inflating market? Why would you convert your valuable, real cash cattle [commodity] back into U.S. dollars by selling them on the board? As the market [commodities]grinds higher (which may turn into GALLOPING higher at any time) not only are you no longer hedged against the inflation [you no longer have your commodity that will increase in value], but you are also in the worst possible cash flow position of having to take what fiat currency you have and send it to Chicago in the form of margin calls.   [are stuck with fiat currency instead of something that will increase in value along with inflation.]

That's what I read.  If I went off the rails I'm all ::ears::

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on October 18, 2011, 10:23:44 PM
"DO NOT SHORT AN INFLATING MARKET. "

Forget the puts and calls and change the nomenclature to owning
a commodity.  To me it is some of the most concise advice on
how to evaluate your situation.

"The volume is there, but it is all big hedge funds and computer-driven trading schemes. The actual, real PEOPLE are few and far between. Given this, there is going to be hard-core volatility and there will be downside movements within the context of general choppiness. But the inflationary trend will probably continue."

These times we see this day to day and week through week.

"Why in the WORLD would you short [sell what you own in] an inflating market? Why would you convert your valuable, real cash cattle [commodity] back into U.S. dollars by selling them on the board? As the market [commodities]grinds higher (which may turn into GALLOPING higher at any time) not only are you no longer hedged against the inflation [you no longer have your commodity that will increase in value], but you are also in the worst possible cash flow position of having to take what fiat currency you have and send it to Chicago in the form of margin calls.   [are stuck with fiat currency instead of something that will increase in value along with inflation.]

That's what I read.  If I went off the rails I'm all ::ears::



Oh hell!  Somebody hurry up and tell Charles if he's got it right because if he does, I actually understand it!

/I need an economic/trader language interpreter.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 19, 2011, 06:36:56 AM
Charles has it right.  Inflation and debasement is killing the dollar, the murderers are the Fed & Treasury, the vultures are the big traders, the easily fleeced are us little nibblers who dare buy on margin.  Converting an inflation hedge into a declining currency is nuts.  When the downward trend is pronounced and perceived to be not changing direction anytime soon the only smart play is to hold the commodity, at least you are protected from eroding value.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on October 19, 2011, 09:40:13 AM
Charles has it right.  Inflation and debasement is killing the dollar, the murderers are the Fed & Treasury, the vultures are the big traders, the easily fleeced are us little nibblers who dare buy on margin.  Converting an inflation hedge into a declining currency is nuts.  When the downward trend is pronounced and perceived to be not changing direction anytime soon the only smart play is to hold the commodity, at least you are protected from eroding value.

Worse comes to worst, ya can always eat it.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 19, 2011, 10:17:10 AM
Depends.  How long can I keep a side of beef viable?!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 19, 2011, 10:26:44 AM

Put it in a can or buy it already canned.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on October 19, 2011, 10:29:42 AM
Depends.  How long can I keep a side of beef viable?!

Depends, as you said.  Isn't Prime Rib made by hanging the beef and letting it age (don't know the particulars)?

Then, there's butchering into "cuts" and freezing or canning.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on November 29, 2011, 06:28:39 PM

Ron Paul's Plan for Monetary Freedom (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cj-0B_60Nkk#ws)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 14, 2011, 10:04:09 AM
Last chance to buy physical before bodies start hitting the floor?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/commodity-unwind-continues-global-liquidity-scramble-accelerates (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/commodity-unwind-continues-global-liquidity-scramble-accelerates)

And a Neo-Keynsian with a poor investment advice record slams physical holders...what a douche...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/roubini-asks-%E2%80%98goldbugs%E2%80%99-twitter-%E2%80%9Cwhere-2000%E2%80%9D+ (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/roubini-asks-%E2%80%98goldbugs%E2%80%99-twitter-%E2%80%9Cwhere-2000%E2%80%9D+)

When the collapse comes, I don't know how many I'll be able to trade PM's for goods with (may need other tradables in the short-term) but long-term value will be based on something, and PM will always have value.  What are idiots like this going to do when that stack of cash isn't worth doing anything with except maybe wipe his ass or start a fire?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on December 14, 2011, 11:38:26 AM

Whatsisname will screw up again, just hold on.

...Roubini, who is its chairman. It has over 85 employees, and is still losing money.
 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/44859944/Economist_Nouriel_Roubini_s_Firm_Is_For_Sale)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 14, 2011, 11:42:23 AM
Wearing your ass for a hat must grow comfortable after a while...for people unable to learn from their mistakes...

 ::hysterical::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on December 15, 2011, 11:10:38 PM
Quote
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11346767/1/gold-prices-fight-to-recover-after-carnage.html

"Was it panic selling?" Asks Jeffrey Wright, senior research analyst at Global Hunter Securities. "No, more program selling that overwhelmed the bids that were in the system." Wright thinks gold's massacre and subsequent volatility is predicated on short term headlines and a lack of resolution out of Europe as well as light volume. "As we get closer to holidays there are less market participants and less on the retail side ... when you have a sharp event and you don't have the breadth of market liquidity it can make these moves sharper because there is no one to participate."

Sounds reasonable, today.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 16, 2011, 07:07:05 AM
Well, if I was into leveraged buys and hit with steep margin calls, yeah, I'd be a panicky seller too!  And the program selling, the Big Boys run that action, they get their cut, the flock being sufficiently fleeced, they bid their time until the next shearing...problem is, they're running out of sheep...they've shaved most of their vicitims out of the market it appearts to me...hence the light volumes.  Just wait, next year the mother-of-all-QE's will be unleashed and no amount of gaming will be able to restrain the upward march of PM's.  But if the economy, politics...the nation slide sideways...well, when chaos rules it will be hard to predeict what anything would do...get the hell out of everything before that happens!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 16, 2011, 07:46:24 AM
Oh, this is a good read!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-what-gold-supply-crunch (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-what-gold-supply-crunch)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 21, 2011, 10:34:03 AM
ZeroHedge via GoldCore - 2012 Outlook For Gold – Positive Fundamentals Remain And Crucial Diversification
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-outlook-gold-%E2%80%93-positive-fundamentals-remain-and-crucial-diversification (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-outlook-gold-%E2%80%93-positive-fundamentals-remain-and-crucial-diversification)

 ::thumbsup::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on December 21, 2011, 12:26:33 PM

History as a gauge, within two years there will be a 20% increase.
 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 22, 2011, 10:55:09 AM
If more accelerant is applied, that could be a very modest estimate.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 03, 2012, 02:19:24 PM
Ann has several more posts up regarding MF Global and CME's potential
collapse, and of course the inferred domino affect.

http://www.barnhardt.biz/ (http://www.barnhardt.biz/)
[blockquote] So, if Mr. Koutoulas is accurately recounting the words of Terry Duffy, and I have no reason to think that he isn't, I was exactly right in my letter. The CME has an $8 billion default slush fund which could have made the MF Global situation go away INSTANTLY. The CME could have stepped in, essentially taken over the firm, squared the books, and then sold the firm intact with customer integrity completely maintained. They have done it before. Many times. In fact, that is the base, root function of the CME. It is also their moral and legal obligation because the CME was the entity that was charged with auditing oversight of MF Global. MF Global was under the regulatory auspices of the CME on the private side, and the CFTC on the government side. The CME was liable and thus failed, and failed CRIMINALLY in their fiduciary duty.

But why? They had the money ready to go in a reserve slush fund for a situation EXACTLY like this. Why didn't they do it? Because they KNEW and they KNOW that MF Global is, as I said, the mere tip of the iceberg. ...

& scrolling down to:
On Cascading Counterparty Risk & Economic Treason
[/blockquote]


                                                                                                                            6104

Dawn comes a little light. 
I just renewed my electric contract.  Here, you may enter into contract with one of several
providers.  The contracts offered (there are signing incentives such as frequent flyer credit
or cash cards etc) are mostly from month to month up to 18 months maybe more I didn't look. 
So I made my choice and have locked in my electricity rate for the next year.  If what she is
saying comes to pass my electric rate will not only increase due to risk and extra operating
costs, it will vary month to month.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 03, 2012, 07:00:14 PM
Ann is dead on right.  When the integrity of the system begins to unravel the unwinding could be catastrophic.

There has never been a time in my lifetime where we face so much peril on so many fronts.

Weathering the storm may take on a new definition for this generation.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 05, 2012, 01:02:56 AM

She's got more gasoline today -

Well, as we all knew and expected, the Squid has its rows of suckers and beaked gaping maw all over the MF Global collapse. It turns out that on October 27th Goldman Sachs bought hundreds of millions of dollars in securities from the imploding MF Global. I'm shocked. Are you shocked, because I'm shocked. I guess Lloyd Blankfein must have just FORGOTTEN TO MENTION IT to anyone. I mean, it's not like $1.2 billion in "missing" customer seg funds, and a multi-hundred million dollar firesale of paper the day before the customer funds went "missing" is any big deal or could possibly be connected or relevant or anything. Nah.

JP Morgan held the paper, and apparently, if I'm reading this right, the securities changed hands and went to Goldman, but the payment never made it into the MF estate. JP Morgan just "took care of it", or something. In other words, it's just a big, incestuous orgy of cephalopod-human psychopathy.

Goldman Sachs article (http://news.yahoo.com/mf-global-sold-assets-goldman-collapse-sources-002332058.html;_ylt=Av_8jAG99ZsDDu0TKFdoLnms0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4MW1wcWRqBG1pdANTZWN0aW9uTGlzdCBGUCBCdXNpbmVzcwRwa2cDZjQwODVlNjEtYTRkNS0zYWVkLTk0NWUtMTBkZWFkMDI2Y2Q3BHBvcwMzBHNlYwNNZWRpYVNlY3Rpb25MaXN0BHZlcgNiNTA0MGI4MC0zNjZhLTExZTEtYWZkNy01OTQ0ZWRkYTM1ZTg-;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3)  

                                                                                                                        6192
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 05, 2012, 06:48:43 AM
Yup, birds of a feather...

Oh hey, lookie here, the Sith Lord himself was in on this scam!

"The Wall Street Journal previously reported that George Soros' fund was a buyer of securities sold by MF Global, scooping-up some of its European sovereign debt at a deep discount. Panic among investors and clients about MF Global's $6.3 billion bet on European sovereign bonds led to its demise."

 ::guillotine::

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 05, 2012, 08:45:11 PM

Warren Pollock & Ann in Conversation
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - January 5, AD 2012 2:47 PM MST
This is a little more technical and "wonkish", but I think both Warren & I did a good job of explaining things and keeping it accessible for the Average Joe. I would also encourage those who have the ability to mirror this YouTube to go ahead and do so, as we get into some pretty hard-core territory that "the powers that be" definitely don't want people to be aware of much less understand.

 [blockquote] Ann Barnhardt and I (Warren Pollock) have an open conversation organized to provide background to this crisis, the setting of legal precedent, netting, settlement, and future trends including a potential bank holiday. We talk about MF Global as it applies to savings and commercial banking, brokerage, insurance, and commodities. We talk about numeric impossibility of solving the problem, incest between government and finance, having the victim of the crisis pay rather than the fraudster. We explain how the MF Global bankruptcy process will define how customer funds will be treated in a bank holiday. We talk about the idea of having an honest bank holiday to root out fraud vs an economic crisis which plays to looting and criminal activity of vested interest.[/blockquote]   

Ann Barnhardt & Warren Pollock Have an Open Conversation (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGl3QPfB084#ws)

                                                                                                                                   6223
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 06, 2012, 07:01:15 AM
"looting and criminal activity of vested interest"

Old habits die hard...especially when they go unpunished and uncorrected.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 11, 2012, 07:49:15 AM
Whoa, OJ going nuts!

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=JO (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=JO)

Brazilian fungus causing fear to run up prices.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204124204577152612500414628.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204124204577152612500414628.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection)

But like every commodity, just remember what our government says, inflation is tamed, there is no inflation, keep saying that!  Hummmm.....Hummmmm...there is no inflation, there is no inflation...

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 17, 2012, 07:39:47 AM
Survey says...Gold to hit $2k/oz by early next year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/global-gold-coin-bar-demand-surges-2011-thomson-reuters-gfms-annual-gold-survey (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/global-gold-coin-bar-demand-surges-2011-thomson-reuters-gfms-annual-gold-survey)

Not an overly bold prediction.  After the great stall-out on budget talks and Stymie bending feckless Repub's over for more on the credit card limit, and Turbo-Timmy and Ben Bernanke print money hand over fist with QE3...well, we could hit $2k by the fall!

Plus, if more buying pressure kicks in...another impetus to higher prices.

This is going to be a fun year!

Any re-pegging of currencies via PM's to resolve debt issues, well, wars could start over that crap if they try to skim peoples wealth away!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 17, 2012, 11:57:07 AM

I'm beginning to think it's fixed just as the rest,
adjusted for inflation it should be between 18 and 20 right now.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 17, 2012, 12:15:35 PM
Well, after brow-beating people with margin hits, it should spring back, even stronger, since there are few left to beat anything out of!

Paper holdings can be hammered, physical possession cannot be denied, and hiding the inflation cannot last.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 23, 2012, 11:18:35 AM
OJ is going wild again!

No, not that throat-slashing maniac, the real OJ!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/machines-are-back-randolph-and-mortimer-stage-epic-comeback-oj-trading-all-time-high (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/machines-are-back-randolph-and-mortimer-stage-epic-comeback-oj-trading-all-time-high)

Oh my God, I hope this doesn't cascade into a run on vodka!   ::speechless::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 23, 2012, 11:54:14 AM

Billy Ray Valentine learns commodities (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EjdC0pjo1A#)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on January 23, 2012, 12:05:36 PM
I have always liked Trading Places. Of course, saying that now is probably racist, even though the movie carries every bit of Liberal theory including Affirmative action, evil rich, etc.

The exchanges are marketplaces with armed guards around them. If you want access, you have to pay the price of admission, no matter what you do once you are in. In an internet world, the costs of particpation have come down via E-Trade etc, but ultimately a market is a service like anything else - they assemble your potential buyers and sellers in one place, and you pay for access to them.



 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on January 23, 2012, 12:06:05 PM
I admit, I've been thinking of Trading Places, also, since the run on OJ began.   ::laughonfloor::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 24, 2012, 03:49:20 PM

[blockquote] FIA Establishes Task Force to Respond to Issues Related To MF Global  (http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20120124.html)

The Futures Industry Association says it has established a special committee to address issues related to the bankruptcy of MF Global. The Futures Market Financial Integrity Task Force will develop and recommend measures that can be implemented through both industry best practice and regulatory change. Also, the FIA says it intends to work with end-users and other market participants to examine the adequacy of current models to protect customer funds. “Although we still do not know for certain what caused the significant shortfall in customer segregated funds required to be held at MF Global, any loss of customer assets is entirely unacceptable and the reasons for the deficiency need to be identified,” says Michael Dawley, chairman of the FIA and managing director at Goldman Sachs & Co.[/blockquote]

Isn't this a Fox guarding the hen house story?  Or, tell me what I'm smelling isn't chickensh*t.

                                                                                                                                                         6463
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on January 24, 2012, 03:55:54 PM
Hoo boy.  Newp, CO, your smeller is working just fine.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 25, 2012, 07:36:06 AM
It's bullsh*t.  Coming into the henhouse after the fox has slaughtered them all and then looking around asking "what happened here?" is useless.  It's all PR/damage control BS and it has zero chance of fooling anybody.  The only way to ensure this doesn't happen again is to go hard after all the perp's who had a hand in this, starting with Corzine, and seizing all their assets which can be added to fines levied and provided to the victims of this crap.  Then the perps can spend life in a fed pen.  Otherwise after all this dies down some other lowlifes will just pull the same stunts again.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on January 25, 2012, 02:29:49 PM
Which is the reason why there are laws against the sort of thing Corzine did.  And what's the point of the law if it isn't enforced?  None.  This just encourages the corruption.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 25, 2012, 09:06:34 PM
Yup.  They are merely circling the wagons, spouting empty words of accountability and hoping the whole damn thing just goes away.

Tell all those people that got hosed to "let it go" and see what happens!

They ought to be allowed to tear these vultures apart!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 25, 2012, 09:14:13 PM

If Ron Paul is the man to deconstruct the Fed
who is the man to reconstruct the CME?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 25, 2012, 09:43:31 PM
Ann!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 25, 2012, 10:22:47 PM

 ::thumbsup::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 26, 2012, 07:52:18 AM
Gold broke through moving average, while we are in QE 2.5 with QE 3,4 &n 5 lurking, if this new price support for gold is real, this could be a heck of a year for PM performance overall!  Might be in the last buying opportunity window for some time.  Since the start of the new year metals overall have been ticking upwards.

And depending upon news out of Europe & Asia and here at home this elections season, well, whole lotta variables to play with, and the overall trends seem bullish to me.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/continuing-negative-real-interest-rates-sees-gold-rise-above-1700oz (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/continuing-negative-real-interest-rates-sees-gold-rise-above-1700oz)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 31, 2012, 08:06:41 AM
China continues to load up on gold.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/01/29/why-are-the-chinese-buying-record-quantities-of-gold/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/01/29/why-are-the-chinese-buying-record-quantities-of-gold/)

The hedging will continue.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on January 31, 2012, 08:23:54 AM
We in the Twin Cities finally broke through the weekly $3.399 per gallon gouge mark.  The new SuperAmerica led gouge mark is $3.459.  It's still only January.  I'll hate to see what it is in spring.

Good luck with your "recovery," Toonces.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on January 31, 2012, 08:26:25 AM
It's all heading back up, now.

Oil - $100.63
Unleaded - $2.8878
Copper - $3.86
Gold - $1,748.50
Silver - $33.795

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 31, 2012, 11:50:39 AM
It's just a sign of a "healthy economy" MNHawk!

/
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on February 03, 2012, 12:04:03 AM

JimRogersChannel on Jan 15, 2012

Jim Rogers - ET Now - 15 January 2012 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f48VcKRFZVc#)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 14, 2012, 07:10:44 AM
In response to Euro downgrades...banks buy gold and currencies take a slide -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/inevitable-us-uk-japan-euro-downgrades-lead-further-currency-debasement (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/inevitable-us-uk-japan-euro-downgrades-lead-further-currency-debasement)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 16, 2012, 11:18:54 AM
This chart from the link really shows how the margin calls flushed people out...and little wonder central bankers are buying physical either...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/01/WGC%205.jpg)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/steve-mandel-rejoins-gold-party-world-gold-council-chimes (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/steve-mandel-rejoins-gold-party-world-gold-council-chimes)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on February 16, 2012, 02:32:03 PM
Unleaded up to $3.044.  That would put price to the station, in Minnesota, of around $3.55.  A likely increase soon to the $3.799 range.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on February 16, 2012, 02:52:55 PM

Going up here too.  Wonder if it'll stay up for the election?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 16, 2012, 07:17:01 PM
Unleaded up to $3.044.  That would put price to the station, in Minnesota, of around $3.55.  A likely increase soon to the $3.799 range.

$3.45 and climbing by me, oil went over $102 today, Iranian jitters to push higher, and if any  distribution disruptions arise it'll get fugly in no time.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on February 16, 2012, 07:28:57 PM

It had been slow, there are better than nineteen tankers going and coming.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 16, 2012, 08:05:36 PM
Once loaded, might as well hit the throttle and scoot!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on February 17, 2012, 07:33:50 AM
Friday is usually gouge day, more often than not.  It can't stay in the 3.40's for long.  $3.699 maybe?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on February 22, 2012, 01:16:22 PM
Friday is usually gouge day, more often than not.  It can't stay in the 3.40's for long.  $3.699 maybe?

$6 gas in Florida (http://tampa.cbslocal.com/2012/02/22/florida-drivers-shelling-out-nearly-6-a-gallon-at-some-gas-stations/)

Oil is not up, the dollar is down.
Quote
During the 493 months since January 1, 1971, the price of WTI has averaged Au0.0732/bbl. It has been higher than that during 225 of those months and lower than that during 268 of those months. Plotted as a graph, the line representing the price of a barrel of oil in terms of gold has crossed the horizontal line representing the long-term average price (Au0.0732/bbl) 29 times. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/02/22/gasoline-prices-are-not-rising-the-dollar-is-falling/)

Did you get your cost of living raise?  Maybe Obama needs a new law: for every 50% devaluation of the currency, you get a 5% increase in pay.

And just to drive the point home ( and give these links a better place to be than than the European thread)
 The Race to Debase (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/race-debase-all-its-glory)
The Race to Debase in terms of Gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-why-dow-just-passed-13000)
 the Dow in terms of Gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dow-passes-13000-nominal-terms-here-real-picture)
 S&P index  measured in Oil
 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-biggest-tradeoff-surging-stock-market)

Meanwhile gold is proving it cares nothing for anyone's feelings.
Up to $1777

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html (http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 22, 2012, 01:46:02 PM
Oil is up, as Brent is the proxy for Mid-East oil and has been rising.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/)

For gas, growing demand in emerging markets is driving demand more than anything.

Gold is AUsome, they can only play so many games, it's value has nothing but upward pressure.  As soon as it hits new recent highs, some will cash out for fiat currency, which if they aren't converting it to something equally valuable...I see no point.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 23, 2012, 07:22:51 AM
Gold vs stocks and the impact of the CFSB fear index.  Please take special note of comments by "credittrader", he knows his stuff!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-explodes-nyse-volume-re-implodes (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-explodes-nyse-volume-re-implodes)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on February 23, 2012, 08:47:22 AM
Please take special note of comments by "credittrader", he knows his stuff!


Wonderful, now I know more than I wanted to about how to leverage an "event" using long term vs. short term gambling, I mean trading.
ZH comments are often more worth your time than the articles themselves, and once in a while you get a  good zinger in the 3rd grade taunts, and the political spectrum runs the gambit.

A lot of the folks on ZH are full time, don't care how I make money, as long as I make it, traders.  Maybe I am stupid, but I just can't bring myself to make money the way these people do-which is mostly by fleecing the less experienced and less attentive. Basically riding on the scams bigger and larger forces are setting up to the detriment of us all.  The recent Greek bailout comes to mind - trying to sign up a future generation to pay the bartab of the previous one, and to foreigners,  and they will try it here too. And these guys will salivate all over it.  And then there is the Gold-bug/Day-Trader rivalry. Gold-bugs fear the collapse of the system over the next few years, and the traders see nothing but day, week, month long opportunities to make a buck, and don't care if the system goes or not - after all, they "got theirs." And really that is the mindset of our current political class- they know its going down- might as well pull as much for themselves out before it goes. 
 
I knew the S&P would run from 6500 to some stupidly high level on QE, but I couldn't bring myself to speculate on it. I have the same problems with "short" positions.. I think its just wrong and immoral to bet against someones success -  not to mention that it creates a moral hazard  incentive to drive failures.  I get that shorts serve a genuine purpose in allowing commodities producers to shift their risk to investors,  but I can't figure out why anyone with a Stock would need that. I see how most of these scams,schemes,  methods work,  I just couldn't look myself in a mirror if I used them. Isn't  that sad?


 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 23, 2012, 11:18:45 AM
Yeah, some of the more unabashed speculators replicate what some of the large central bank & borkerage houses predatory practices, there is legitimate uses for hedge plays, but by and large the Ron Paul hardcore ZH commenter despises pretty much all of them.

Right now the major shakers seem to be squeezing what real value there is to be had, regardless who it leaves in the dirt, and when the air is let out of bloated equity and credit markets...well, the carnage will be enormous.  Doubling-down on insanity is all they have left, try to postpone Judgement Day and kick the can down the old decomposing road...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on February 23, 2012, 11:42:04 AM
Yeah, some of the more unabashed speculators replicate what some of the large central bank & borkerage houses predatory practices, there is legitimate uses for hedge plays, but by and large the Ron Paul hardcore ZH commenter despises pretty much all of them.

Case in point:

Quote
So, what is wrong all of a sudden with paying your bills even if it has to be in gold?  Seizing assets that are pledged in a loan agreement is one of the foundations of our banking systems.  How does this all of a sudden become something dispicable like 'plundering"?

Quote
Ratboy.  Are bailouts and quantative easings part of the foundation of our banking systems?

Quote
Yes they are.  The sooner that you can accept those facts that the sooner you will be able to make rational decisions about the world and your own finances.

Yes, I know the world sucks, but you can use that to make a buck, and you are irrational if you don't.

The World Is What We Make Of It (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbBAqaf6cIg#)


Some bucks aren't worth the Karma they cost.  If that makes me an idiot, so be it.
 



Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 23, 2012, 11:45:34 AM
I hear ya, I'm more of a long term investor, although I have engaged in short-term plays before, and I am (and have been for several years now) where value is - commodities.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on February 23, 2012, 12:01:22 PM
Quote
Some bucks aren't worth the Karma the cost.

It may be legal, but that doesn't make it isn't moral or ethical.  It strikes me that this is what's wrong with a lot of our financial system and the players in it - there's less and less honor.



Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 23, 2012, 12:23:59 PM
Unless you have a ton of money and sophisticated trading programs its hard to beat the big money houses to the punch, the vast majority of us will just get squished.  Ask Ann Barnhardt.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on February 23, 2012, 02:38:21 PM
Oil is up, as Brent is the proxy for Mid-East oil and has been rising.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/)

For gas, growing demand in emerging markets is driving demand more than anything.

Gold is AUsome, they can only play so many games, it's value has nothing but upward pressure.  As soon as it hits new recent highs, some will cash out for fiat currency, which if they aren't converting it to something equally valuable...I see no point.



And the POS currently occupying the WH is all over the "news" today talking about high gas prices - clips - mocking Republicans, "so, what's their solution?  Drill.  And then drill some more.  And keep drilling".

How cum (yes, this is rhetorical) higher gas prices during Bush's terms were his fault because he was "an oilman" and "in bed with the oil companies", but escalating gas prices now are still Republicans' fault, EVEN THOUGH the aforementioned POS said, during his previous campaign, that he wanted higher prices at the pump?

I so hate this guy; let me count the wayz .....
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 24, 2012, 07:21:43 AM
I H8 him too, should be a no-brainer beat-back on this issue, but aside from Palin and a few orthers nobody has the stones or sense to.

 ::gaah::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 19, 2012, 07:03:43 AM
This is a good retrospective on the silver market, there is a lot of technical jargon, but if you at least read the "what I learned" paragraph and the last two paragraphs you should have a better appreciation of how the big guns game the system for advantage.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/archives-bunker-hunt-and-silver-thursday (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/archives-bunker-hunt-and-silver-thursday)

I can imagine what Ann Barnhardt would say about this!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 20, 2012, 11:55:37 PM

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/us-usa-fed-gold-idUSBRE82J17A20120320 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/us-usa-fed-gold-idUSBRE82J17A20120320)
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday took aim at proponents of the gold standard, saying that such a system handicaps the government's ability to address economic conditions.


(http://www.drudgereport.com/ocb.jpg)
             Link (http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/03/20/controversial-painter-depicts-obama-with-burning-constitution/)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 21, 2012, 07:00:06 AM
You know what that means CO?  Yup, confiscation is coming.  Best stash that stash good and tell the Fed's it was all tragically lost in a boating accident!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 21, 2012, 06:05:49 PM

It was a turribal turribal thing, yes it was.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 21, 2012, 07:14:29 PM
Turribal.

 ::hysterical::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 21, 2012, 11:48:54 PM

The money quote:

[blockquote]    Interviewer: If he [Corzine} gets off doing this scott free without any investigation [uh, how about a criminal conviction??], what does that say to the future?

    Koutoulas: It says that you should get your money out of the U.S. financial system, because people can go in and take money out of not just a bank account, but something that is supposed to be much safer than a bank account, and have no repercussions, and this cannot stand. And if it does, America's financial system is not safe for anybody.

Hat tip: Warren Pollock
 [/blockquote]

Has JP Morgan Looted Accounts During Previous Bankruptcies? Lehman Brothers and Lessons Not Learned (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymFiZDKD1W0#ws)


The beginning:

Koutoulas Faces Reality: Financial System Toast
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - March 21, AD 2012 1:43 PM MST
Remember James Koutoulas? He's the Roy Orbison-looking guy who ran a hedge fund and got raped by MF Global. Mr. Koutoulas was also a lawyer, so he decided to dust off his J.D. and fight in court, and became a "voice of the customers." When I shut Barnhardt Capital Management down in November of 2011, he criticized me for not sticking around and fighting it out - which is a very faulty argument because I and all brokers are basically HELPLESS to defend client funds with FCMs, and because I would be risking not just my own money, but orders of magnitude more at risk would be MY CLIENTS' funds. My client book value ranged from twenty to sixty times my personal posted capital, which is very standard. The capital I had to post personally was basically to protect my clearing firm against two things: a big trading error on my part, OR a client skipping out on a deficit balance. It's one thing to lay down your own chips. It is quite another to cavalierly lay down someone else's chips. Big, big moral difference there.

Well, Mr. Koutoulas, after staring down the beast from inside the pit for these last five months, has reached the same conclusion that I reached two weeks after the MF Global collapse. The U.S. financial system is irretrievably broken. All hands abandon ship.

I don't know who the interviewer is, but his "sympathy for Corzine" schtick is total bee-ess. You can't "temporarily steal" someone else's funds to finance your suicidally stupid house accounts. There is nothing, and I mean NOTHING that justifies monkeying around with customer money. This moral equivocation crap has got to stop.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 22, 2012, 07:22:53 AM

The money quote:

[blockquote]    Interviewer: If he [Corzine} gets off doing this scott free without any investigation [uh, how about a criminal conviction??], what does that say to the future?

    Koutoulas: It says that you should get your money out of the U.S. financial system, because people can go in and take money out of not just a bank account, but something that is supposed to be much safer than a bank account, and have no repercussions, and this cannot stand. And if it does, America's financial system is not safe for anybody.

Hat tip: Warren Pollock
 [/blockquote]

Has JP Morgan Looted Accounts During Previous Bankruptcies? Lehman Brothers and Lessons Not Learned (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymFiZDKD1W0#ws)


The beginning:

Koutoulas Faces Reality: Financial System Toast
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - March 21, AD 2012 1:43 PM MST
Remember James Koutoulas? He's the Roy Orbison-looking guy who ran a hedge fund and got raped by MF Global. Mr. Koutoulas was also a lawyer, so he decided to dust off his J.D. and fight in court, and became a "voice of the customers." When I shut Barnhardt Capital Management down in November of 2011, he criticized me for not sticking around and fighting it out - which is a very faulty argument because I and all brokers are basically HELPLESS to defend client funds with FCMs, and because I would be risking not just my own money, but orders of magnitude more at risk would be MY CLIENTS' funds. My client book value ranged from twenty to sixty times my personal posted capital, which is very standard. The capital I had to post personally was basically to protect my clearing firm against two things: a big trading error on my part, OR a client skipping out on a deficit balance. It's one thing to lay down your own chips. It is quite another to cavalierly lay down someone else's chips. Big, big moral difference there.

Well, Mr. Koutoulas, after staring down the beast from inside the pit for these last five months, has reached the same conclusion that I reached two weeks after the MF Global collapse. The U.S. financial system is irretrievably broken. All hands abandon ship.

I don't know who the interviewer is, but his "sympathy for Corzine" schtick is total bee-ess. You can't "temporarily steal" someone else's funds to finance your suicidally stupid house accounts. There is nothing, and I mean NOTHING that justifies monkeying around with customer money. This moral equivocation crap has got to stop.



Amen, Sister!

And I would argue much of what people think is "safe" right now is at risk.  Think beyond your everyday bank account, I'm talking 401(k), 403(b), pensions, IRA's & brokerage accounts!  All are at risk either from government seizure or debasement and/or fiduciary failures ala MFG!  There is a psychotic form of musical chairs going on in the world and only the master manipulators like Soros are profiting from it.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 22, 2012, 07:52:07 PM

http://freebeacon.com/gun-boom-continues-despite-florida-shooting/ (http://freebeacon.com/gun-boom-continues-despite-florida-shooting/)
...
Shares of Sturm Ruger & Co. (RGR) were up as high as 14 percent Thursday afternoon after CEO Michael Fifer announced the company was temporarily suspending its acceptance of new orders in an effort to meet a dramatic surge in demand for its products.

“Despite the company’s continuing successful efforts to increase production rates, the incoming order rate exceeds our capacity to rapidly fulfill these orders,” Fifer said in the statement late Wednesday.

Ruger received more than a million order requests in the first quarter of 2012.
...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 23, 2012, 07:59:38 AM
Whoa, people be sensing something out there eh?

And the government ordering a buttload of .40cal ammo probably doesn't lessen the fear at all either, eh?

Bullish on guns & ammo!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 23, 2012, 08:58:52 AM
Oil Conundrum Explained

"Each and every American, and especially those involved in tracking the economy, will have to remind themselves and the public that at bottom, it was the Federal Reserve that created the conditions by which we suffer, including currency devaluation and high oil prices, NOT some foreign enemy."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/oil-conundrum-explained (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/oil-conundrum-explained)

This article rings true to me.  I still argue we would be better off exploiting our own domestic resources and improving refinery capacity and modernization and improving/modernizing distribution to decouple for crazy foreign suppliers, and we can definitely do without high taxation and subsidies in the entire energy sector as well.  But this article makes sense that other devaluing fiat currencies are masking the Forex market impact of Fed policy, and like a balloon getting pumped full of air, if squeezed it will follow the path of least resistance, so the air winds up in oil.  If the dollar loses reserve status the air being let out will shoot that balloon across the sky.  If fundamental changes in Fed policy occur a managed realease of this hot air might be possible.

But, the Neo-Keynesian's are in charge, so, until they can be cleaned out it will be business as usual...

Thus, back to expoiting domestic capacity.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 23, 2012, 12:48:57 PM

So, buy big oil or gold?

This is an excellent piece.  
I would suggest O'Reilly and others read it.

Some tangential thought bubbles aside from those relating to Barnhardt:

Quote
We don’t know exactly how much fiat the Fed has printed in that time, and won’t know until a full and comprehensive audit is finally enacted, but we do know that the amount is at the very least in the tens of trillions.

So all the counterfeiting done by the NoKos and others is a drop in the bucket and are actually an assistance to Bernie.  Why go to the trouble of redesigning our beautiful currency to its current ugliness?
-----------------------
Quote
Bilateral trade agreements between China, Russia, Japan, India, and other countries, especially those within the ASEAN trading bloc, are slowly but surely removing the dollar from the game as these nations begin to replace trade using other currencies, including the Yuan.  I believe commodities, especially oil, have been reflecting this trend for quite some time.

Rumor, Quadaffi assassinated because he was preparing for Libya and other Arab states to issue gold currency and trade oil in same.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 23, 2012, 02:35:10 PM
Fortunately for me all I am in is gold, silver and oil.  As far as oil goes I just have to be warry of any implosion.

We heard that Daffy plan before, same one the Persian's are wanting to run now.  BRICS and others trying to end dollar dominance will be hampered unless/until other nations stop their Neo-Keynesian antics too.

Gonna be interesting either way seeing how this plays out.  The bubble could easily wind up back in PM's in an insane way.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 23, 2012, 10:24:42 PM

Where Did All The Money Go? Here! (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/where-did-all-money-go-here)

                                                                                                      7725
                                                                       
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 07:39:45 AM

Where Did All The Money Go? Here! (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/where-did-all-money-go-here)

                                                                                                      7725
                                                                       

Just a rainy day fund.  I'm sure some has already been plowed back into themselves in Treasury stock.  We'll see what is done with the rest, if Obango is retained you know damn well it won't be used for expansion or modernization, it will be used for survival.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 07:41:16 AM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-1-kilo-gold-bar-found-uk (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-1-kilo-gold-bar-found-uk)

I tend to hold to the isolated incident theory, the PTB's would be a lot smarter in how they go about screwing over the general public.  But it is something to be aware of.  Especially if we find ourselves in a barter economy. 
 ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 08:30:35 AM
Oh, and another round of QE in the offing?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/futures-precious-metals-soar-bernanke-says-more-accommodative-policies-needed-hints-new-qe (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/futures-precious-metals-soar-bernanke-says-more-accommodative-policies-needed-hints-new-qe)

SSDD!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on March 26, 2012, 09:53:16 AM
Speaking of commodities, I was just informed that oil is not traded (as a commodity) in the way grown/harvested items like wheat and oranges are.

Aside from the fact that some are grown, some are drilled, some are mined, what's the difference?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 10:59:29 AM
Aside from ETF's, I presume you are looking to actually invest in oil directly you need to go through a broker, which means buying on margin (and subject to margin calls of all sorts) on the purchasing of monthly contracts.  So by not traded per se, it is because of the purchasing of contracts that give you the right to buy or sell crude oil.  The liquidity of the oil market is substantial.  The big buyers in the industry are the only ones who take physical delivery, I have not heard of anyone getting stuck with 1000 barrels dropped off at their residence!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on March 26, 2012, 01:09:15 PM
Aside from ETF's, I presume you are looking to actually invest in oil directly you need to go through a broker, which means buying on margin (and subject to margin calls of all sorts) on the purchasing of monthly contracts.  So by not traded per se, it is because of the purchasing of contracts that give you the right to buy or sell crude oil.  The liquidity of the oil market is substantial.  The big buyers in the industry are the only ones who take physical delivery, I have not heard of anyone getting stuck with 1000 barrels dropped off at their residence!

No. I'm not talking about me investing in oil.

I said that oil was a commodity and was told the following:  "but it's NOT like wheat and sugar, or other grown/harvested commodities".

So, I'm axing, how is it not?  ^^  I mean, other than it cannot be eaten.


 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 01:23:46 PM
Aside from ETF's, I presume you are looking to actually invest in oil directly you need to go through a broker, which means buying on margin (and subject to margin calls of all sorts) on the purchasing of monthly contracts.  So by not traded per se, it is because of the purchasing of contracts that give you the right to buy or sell crude oil.  The liquidity of the oil market is substantial.  The big buyers in the industry are the only ones who take physical delivery, I have not heard of anyone getting stuck with 1000 barrels dropped off at their residence!

No. I'm not talking about me investing in oil.

I said that oil was a commodity and was told the following:  "but it's NOT like wheat and sugar, or other grown/harvested commodities".

So, I'm axing, how is it not?  ^^  I mean, other than it cannot be eaten.


 

Apart from the obvious, most people can buy the raw item (sugar, wheat) but not crude oil.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Alphabet Soup on March 26, 2012, 01:28:01 PM
Aside from ETF's, I presume you are looking to actually invest in oil directly you need to go through a broker, which means buying on margin (and subject to margin calls of all sorts) on the purchasing of monthly contracts.  So by not traded per se, it is because of the purchasing of contracts that give you the right to buy or sell crude oil.  The liquidity of the oil market is substantial.  The big buyers in the industry are the only ones who take physical delivery, I have not heard of anyone getting stuck with 1000 barrels dropped off at their residence!

No. I'm not talking about me investing in oil.

I said that oil was a commodity and was told the following:  "but it's NOT like wheat and sugar, or other grown/harvested commodities".

So, I'm axing, how is it not?  ^^  I mean, other than it cannot be eaten.


 

Apart from the obvious, most people can buy the raw item (sugar, wheat) but not crude oil.

Why not? What stops you?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 01:31:10 PM
Aside from ETF's, I presume you are looking to actually invest in oil directly you need to go through a broker, which means buying on margin (and subject to margin calls of all sorts) on the purchasing of monthly contracts.  So by not traded per se, it is because of the purchasing of contracts that give you the right to buy or sell crude oil.  The liquidity of the oil market is substantial.  The big buyers in the industry are the only ones who take physical delivery, I have not heard of anyone getting stuck with 1000 barrels dropped off at their residence!

No. I'm not talking about me investing in oil.

I said that oil was a commodity and was told the following:  "but it's NOT like wheat and sugar, or other grown/harvested commodities".

So, I'm axing, how is it not?  ^^  I mean, other than it cannot be eaten.


 

Apart from the obvious, most people can buy the raw item (sugar, wheat) but not crude oil.

Why not? What stops you?

A sh*tload of money!!!

http://crude-oil-sellers.com/buy-and-sell-crude-oil-most-profitable-way-to-do-it/ (http://crude-oil-sellers.com/buy-and-sell-crude-oil-most-profitable-way-to-do-it/)

And this doesn't even begin to touch our regulatory environment!!!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 01:32:18 PM
Also, isn't the minimum purchase 1,000 barrels?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on March 26, 2012, 01:40:06 PM
Aside from ETF's, I presume you are looking to actually invest in oil directly you need to go through a broker, which means buying on margin (and subject to margin calls of all sorts) on the purchasing of monthly contracts.  So by not traded per se, it is because of the purchasing of contracts that give you the right to buy or sell crude oil.  The liquidity of the oil market is substantial.  The big buyers in the industry are the only ones who take physical delivery, I have not heard of anyone getting stuck with 1000 barrels dropped off at their residence!

No. I'm not talking about me investing in oil.

I said that oil was a commodity and was told the following:  "but it's NOT like wheat and sugar, or other grown/harvested commodities".

So, I'm axing, how is it not?  ^^  I mean, other than it cannot be eaten.


 

Apart from the obvious, most people can buy the raw item (sugar, wheat) but not crude oil.

Why not? What stops you?

A sh*tload of money!!!

http://crude-oil-sellers.com/buy-and-sell-crude-oil-most-profitable-way-to-do-it/ (http://crude-oil-sellers.com/buy-and-sell-crude-oil-most-profitable-way-to-do-it/)

And this doesn't even begin to touch our regulatory environment!!!

Aside from the money. 

As I understand it, crude pumped anywhere simply adds to the world's available supply -- a figurative pool of oil -- subject to the usual laws of supply and demand as regards cost.  Speculators buy "futures" based on what they *think* the price will be in the future.  As I further understand it, oranges, wheat, sugar are all other commodities bought and sold the same way.  Bad world crop, less orange juice, higher price -- supply and demand and speculators, just the same as oil or wheat.

Do I understand correctly?  In words meant for a three-year old, please, if I haven't.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 02:09:28 PM
Aside from ETF's, I presume you are looking to actually invest in oil directly you need to go through a broker, which means buying on margin (and subject to margin calls of all sorts) on the purchasing of monthly contracts.  So by not traded per se, it is because of the purchasing of contracts that give you the right to buy or sell crude oil.  The liquidity of the oil market is substantial.  The big buyers in the industry are the only ones who take physical delivery, I have not heard of anyone getting stuck with 1000 barrels dropped off at their residence!

No. I'm not talking about me investing in oil.

I said that oil was a commodity and was told the following:  "but it's NOT like wheat and sugar, or other grown/harvested commodities".

So, I'm axing, how is it not?  ^^  I mean, other than it cannot be eaten.


 

Apart from the obvious, most people can buy the raw item (sugar, wheat) but not crude oil.

Why not? What stops you?

A sh*tload of money!!!

http://crude-oil-sellers.com/buy-and-sell-crude-oil-most-profitable-way-to-do-it/ (http://crude-oil-sellers.com/buy-and-sell-crude-oil-most-profitable-way-to-do-it/)

And this doesn't even begin to touch our regulatory environment!!!

Aside from the money. 

As I understand it, crude pumped anywhere simply adds to the world's available supply -- a figurative pool of oil -- subject to the usual laws of supply and demand as regards cost.  Speculators buy "futures" based on what they *think* the price will be in the future.  As I further understand it, oranges, wheat, sugar are all other commodities bought and sold the same way.  Bad world crop, less orange juice, higher price -- supply and demand and speculators, just the same as oil or wheat.

Do I understand correctly?  In words meant for a three-year old, please, if I haven't.



Short answer is yes.

With the oil industry you have to be careful with terms like available supply, but yes, the crude oil brought to market (new deliveries) can be traded/hedged using many of the same vehicles as available with other commodities but in terms of scale and ability to transact physical ownership, oil is cost prohibitive for "average" investors who have to rely on ETF's and industry stocks to make oil plays.  Also, since oil is used in more applications than fuel there is not always a direct relationship between oil prices and byproducts.  I would also add that due to weather and such, crop-based commodities are more supply dependent, but all commodities share many of the same risks that affect their supply, transport, regulation and risk insurance and industry nationalization - all of which impact their pricing.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on March 26, 2012, 02:16:42 PM
Thank you very much.

Now, about this:

"With the oil industry you have to be careful with terms like available supply ...".

Okay, why?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 26, 2012, 02:31:10 PM
Thank you very much.

Now, about this:

"With the oil industry you have to be careful with terms like available supply ...".

Okay, why?

There is quantifiable reserves below ground, there are barrels ready for shipment (staged for sale), there are barrels shipped (bought, now out of market but soon to be in productive use as gas, diesel, other chemicals and petroleum products), and then there are things like the SPR which being bought and stored for future refining is off-market in terms of availibilty (unless foolishly released for sale on the open market by stupid Presidents wanting to look like they are doing something).  So the stuff that is available to bring to market (available supply) is mostly the stuff yet to pump out, as everything loaded is filling an existing demand for that delivery date.  Since most producers know what their average daily output is and how long it takes to load a tanker, the scheduling process is predictable.  But things like crazy people blocking the Strait of Hormuz can threaten to slow deliveries and that uncertainty would send turmoil through the markets, messing with not just current deliveries but more importantly future deliveries which could see a spike in prices that send buyers scrambling to lock in a futures contract before the rise goes viral.  Others may gamble to wait to see if the dust settles soon if they get froze out of contracts at a reasonable price.  Since much of the price acts as a pass-thru to ultimate consumers (you and I) it tends to be what it is is what it is.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on March 26, 2012, 02:48:25 PM
Thank you again, Libertas.  (See! I can do this!)

"There is quantifiable reserves below ground ... "

Wouldn't a new "strike" add to those known reserves, increasing the amount of the pool?  Wouldn't a large addition cause the overall price to drop?

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 26, 2012, 03:51:46 PM

Also, those quantifiable reserves are not what the government refers
to when they use the term reserves.  When they speak of reserves they
refer to those fields which are producers as defined by them.  Therefore,
when they speak of reserves the amount will be significantly less than
the actual amount of reserve oil.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 27, 2012, 07:13:39 AM
Correct CO, and yes Pan, if a new field was discovered it would send a positive signal to the market based upon predicted daily rate, when it gets tapped and the actual rate of flow is established, then you would see the market adjust up or down from the preliminary daily estimate, so if it is producing more than expected it could cause another increase in available supply.

This availability vs access thing is what really drives me nucking futs!  We know there is a buttload of oil under the north slope, but eco-nazi's and Leftists at large successfully crapped out enough lies to make drilling all but impossible there, and until that changes those reserves will never be allowed to have their positive impact felt on the world market.  Ditto for other areas and offshore sites.  We have more oil underground than the fricken Saudi's, but we are not allowed by the government to go after it!  There is nothing more stupid, ignorant and shortsighted than this!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 27, 2012, 03:11:15 PM

I'm compelled to say again: The oil pressure is so high in San Francisco Bay that the earth expels ... well, I wanted to quote the sum however, it seems to be one of those disappeared  quotients from the web.  Researched two gubment pdfs about Santa Barbara seepage and the words: barrel, barrels, gallons, and pounds did not appear one time in either one of them.

Not to worry, friends, I found a recent article from the Daily Caller from which I bring a snippet.

[blockquote]Link (http://dailycaller.com/2012/03/26/environmentalists-and-oil-companies-form-rare-relationship-in-response-to-oil-seepage/)
Currently, all oil drilling off the coast of California takes place on Platform Holly, located 12 miles from Santa Barbara. The South Ellwood offshore field is home to over a billion barrels of oil, according to the Department of Energy. These reserves expel [seep] about 86,000 barrels of oil into the ocean each year.

To put the effects of the seep in context, the Dos Cuadras oil spill put roughly the same amount of oil into the ocean in 1969 and covered over 35 miles of beachfront. The oil seep has recently brought environmentalist groups to the negotiating table in hopes that drilling will reduce its impact on wildlife.

Studies show that deep-water drilling has significantly reduced the natural seepage of oil around Platform Holly.[/blockquote]


Note: The South Ellwood field is only one of many established fields in the Santa Barbara Bay area.


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on March 27, 2012, 04:33:33 PM
As I understand it, nature-made tar balls have been washing up Louisiana's shores for a long time as well.  It's natural!  It's organic!  I thought the Left really liked natural and organic; turns out they're very picky about icky oil:

Quote
Repeat this tired old adage that somehow sticking to oil is in any way a good idea as much as you like. It still won't even begin to make it right for all kinds of reasons. We'll bear with it until a proven technology comes out, but saying that its a viable long term alternative is simple stupidity. We don't have enough of it to supply ourselves, we don't have the refineries to do something with it, we are paying money to potential terrorist supporters to get it, we can't control the price of it, it has numerous environmental consequences both in getting it, transporting it and using it, its carcinogenic in numerous forms and its a finite resource to begin with.

If you want to call the sky green, call the sky green. The rest of us will smile and nod until you shut up about it.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 29, 2012, 07:27:34 AM
I hate these articles, so full of it!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/oil-trades-near-one-week-low-on-stockpile-gain-talk-of-release.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/oil-trades-near-one-week-low-on-stockpile-gain-talk-of-release.html)

US Stockpiles up 7.1m barrels and the price drops 2.3% over 2 days?  Umm, the US consumes about 18m barrels per day, so there is more going on than we are seeing.  I am thinking the recent runnup was due more to psychological reasons (Iran tensions) than anything and some of that panic may have been overstated and prices are now seeking a new support level.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on March 29, 2012, 08:24:56 AM
WTI $105.25
Gas $3.42

Doesn't look down to me. 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 29, 2012, 08:26:47 AM
Depends where you start.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=w1 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=w1)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 29, 2012, 12:15:43 PM
Manipulation in the gold market, can be a bit much to read, but the e-mails toward the end of the embedded report are quite interesting!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/paul-mylchreest-presents-various-visual-case-studies-gold-price-manipulation (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/paul-mylchreest-presents-various-visual-case-studies-gold-price-manipulation)

Drive it down and gobble it up.  Big PTB's know what is coming and are loading up!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 29, 2012, 03:32:31 PM
here are some other facts that we have in our possession:
    
Out of all these efforts, certainly the one with the most dramatic impact is the management of the price of money.

 ::speechless::

ETA: Here is the Thunder Road, Gold Price and the Monetary System since 5-05-2011
pdf address:
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/action/media/downloadFile?media_fileid=1718 (http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/action/media/downloadFile?media_fileid=1718)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 29, 2012, 04:53:25 PM
Quote
As long as this illusion prevails, the Anglo/US/Euro political and financial elite (for their personal accounts), Chinese and Russian central banks, Arab royals, Asian billionaires, Indian farmers, tin  pot  “stackers”  and  others  stay  focused  on  “squirreling  away”  physical metal. An  almost unknown, except to a few, “sage” of the gold market once forecast (I’m paraphrasing but it is close enough) that:

“Physical gold will need only to be ‘priced’ once during this lifetime and that will be more than enough.”

Beneath the surface and behind the scenes, this process is playing out irrespective of the current “hybrid price” on traders’ screens. The  latter  is  just being used to make the financial system look better than it really is. You know what they say about working out who the sucker is in a game of poker?

ETA: Gresham’s Law Squared - gearing up for Game Over - ThunderRoadReport-02-24-2011
  http://www.gata.org/files/ThunderRoadReport-02-24-2011.pdf (http://www.gata.org/files/ThunderRoadReport-02-24-2011.pdf)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 30, 2012, 07:40:14 AM
Damn good links CO! 

I guess the extemely slow-walking of COMEX deliveries in large purchases doesn't surprise me, the smaller investor can still get physical in the smaller sizes, but the appetite of nations and the wealthy for PM's is making larger quantities harder to get.  I susally go through APMEX and have had good luck with them.  Everytime silver drops I put another order in.  We're in the mid 32's right now, not a bad time to buy.  Once the currency debasement pops, PM's could go stratospheric.

The PDF in the post above is an excellent primer to give to anyone wanting to understand the PM market!

And there is more debasement on the horizon!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rises-and-silver-surges-q1-2012-fiat-currency-devaluation-continues (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rises-and-silver-surges-q1-2012-fiat-currency-devaluation-continues)

Hi Ho Silver!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 30, 2012, 11:05:25 AM

Paraphrasing Weisshaupt, spend that fiat money.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 30, 2012, 11:19:47 AM
No kidding!  The debasement continues unabated!!!  Buy, stash, and don't forget the unfortunate boating accident!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 31, 2012, 02:41:04 AM

That's for sure and it could be any future necessity, Pan suggested tires.  I bought
tires and gallons of oil etc. It's not just gas that's already doubled in price.
There are areas that are booming in the face of this adversity and others who are
planning on increase.

We need the politicians and bureaucrats and regulators to get out of the way, that's all.  All this steel down there, is what, about thirty percent of what demand would be if drillers were set free. How many more drivers, riggers, food and lodging services, fuel stations, new subdivisions, schools, families, would that create and nourish?

[blockquote] Port of Houston Authority reports 119 percent increase in steel imports (http://www.breakbulk.com/ports-terminals/steel-soars-houston-more-come)

Steel imports at the Port of Houston soared by 329,000 tons in February compared with the previous month, an increase of more than 140 percent. For the year, steel imports stand at 564,000 tons, a 119 percent increase over the same period in 2011.

"You can attribute the tonnage primarily to the shale plays that are occurring in the United States for the drilling for gas," Ricky Kunz, Port of Houston Authority's vice president for trade development, said in an interview with KUHF Houston public radio.[/blockquote]
and
                             
Chinese are prepping for future demand our leaders are prepping for their next photo op. More powder for Senator Mitchell, over here and don't forget the rouge
[blockquote]Chinese Steelmaker Orders Twin-ladle Furnace (http://www.breakbulk.com/steel-metals/chinese-steelmaker-orders-twin-ladle-furnaces-03-20)

Zhangjiagang Hongchang Plate Co. has awarded Siemens VAI Metals Technologies an order to supply two twin-ladle furnaces for its new converter steelworks. Both facilities are scheduled for commissioning in spring 2013.

Each of the twin-ladle furnaces has a capacity of 180 tonnes, and will be installed in the new Zhangjiagang Hongchang converter steelworks in the city of Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu Province.

Siemens is supplying key mechanical and electrical components as well. These include current conducting electrode arms together with the high-current busbar system and hydraulic system. Siemens is also responsible for engineering, installation and commissioning, the company said in a statement.

... The company produces about 30 million tonnes of raw steel each year. [/blockquote]

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: trapeze on April 02, 2012, 12:07:20 AM
LINK (http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/03/30/lawrence-solomon-a-world-awash-in-oil/)

Quote
Today, the Middle East is in the news daily — we hear of strife in Syria, in Iran, in Israel and Palestine. Ten or 20 years from now, conflicts in the Middle East will count for less in the world’s scheme of things, just as the daily conflicts that now occur in Africa get short shrift, despite Africa’s far greater loss of life. Twenty years from now, the Middle East could be about as important as it was at the turn of the previous century — before its oil was discovered — which was not very important at all.

The Middle East will attract scant attention in future, not because the region will have run out of oil — it will have found much more — but because the rest of the world will also be awash in oil. As supplies increase, oil depreciates in price, as does the political value of its purveyors.

The future.

Quote
Although shale oil technology is still in its infancy, much of the U.S. shale oil can be developed inexpensively, at a cost comparable to the US$50 to US$60 per barrel cost of tar sands, which has itself been dropping. The trend down in shale oil costs is likely to continue over the coming years. Israel, which has some 250-billion barrels in one basin near Jerusalem alone, an amount comparable to Saudi Arabia’s reserves, expects to develop its oil at a cost of US$35 to US$40 per barrel. Should the world price of oil drop to this level — which happens to be the average price over the last two decades — the halving in oil prices will have mirrored that of natural gas. In the process, today’s Middle East energy exporters will have been bankrupted and their autocrats ousted.

Saudi Arabia, for example, now depends on petroleum for 80% of its budget, 45% of its GDP and 90% of its export earnings. A dramatic decrease in oil revenues would render the next generation of Saudi rulers incapable of maintaining the lavish payments needed to appease the Saudi clerics, let alone the social welfare payments that have kept the Saudi populace at bay, such as the US$130-billion in instant benefits conferred upon Saudi citizens last year to tamp down dissent during the Arab Spring. This artificial country, carved out of the Ottoman Empire after World War I by the British and given to the Saudi clan, would then likely break up, to once again be ruled along tribal lines. But few in the West would then take much notice.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 02, 2012, 08:04:00 AM
Indeed, the Saudi's and other oil kingdoms are on a clock, and I see no ability to transition to a new economy, the region will revert back to nomadic times, and whoever hangs out there is going to be off little consequence to the rest of the world.

Now, if we can only end the progressive reign of ignorance here at home, we could really see a revitalized America take off.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 05, 2012, 02:10:31 AM

On spending fiat money:  Earlier this year I priced a set of 3 throw rugs for $315.00 finally deciding to purchase them I pasted the saved link into the browser and what came up was, a single, the largest rug priced at the exact earlier price of the set.  Curious I searched for the set and found it... the exact same set for $529.00.  During this search it was also discovered that many other items researched at the same time as the rugs were "out of stock". Upon contacting a human discovered that they will not be receiving any more of those items.

It appears today's cost of the item to the merchandiser is above what it can be sold for at a profit.  This is a sign of the beginning of a vicious cycle. What is it when you oscillate between escalating inflation and a depressed market?
 
[blockquote]
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Handwerger/20120404.html (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Handwerger/20120404.html)
We may be witnessing a false illusion that the economy has bottomed and further QE is unnecessary yet we see golden swans on the horizon.

These banks are still holding 1.5 million foreclosed homes that are still unsold.  We could see many foreclosure sales over the next few months, where we could see an upswing in asset sales by 25%.  This is why we recently saw Bernanke hint at additional accommodation to continue supporting a moribund economy.  We may be under the optical illusion America is doing fantastic and that the U.S. dollar will rebound.[/blockquote]
or
[blockquote]
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/20120404.html (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/20120404.html)
Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao projects that on the technical side of things in gold, the yellow metal has the potential to fall to the $1,392 per ounce level over the next 90 days. That figure represents the 100% Fibonacci projection level while the $1,447 mark represents the 38.3% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $680 to $1920. The sub-$1,400 gold price target –according to Wang Tao-will be “confirmed when gold falls below the March 22 low of $1,627.68 per ounce.
[/blockquote]
and
[blockquote]
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/20120326.html (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/20120326.html)   By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden,
-- Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter named 2010 Letter of the Year by MarketWatch,[/blockquote]

                                                                                                                     8135
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 05, 2012, 07:09:11 AM
Yeah, if gold dips below $1300 and silver below $25 you can bet your bottom dollar I am going to load up on more physical!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 10, 2012, 12:18:34 PM
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5)

Did Turbo Timmy flip the hyperdrive switch on the printing presses again?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 10, 2012, 06:40:24 PM

I watch those charts, it's always boom one way or the other, and try to find out
who said what at that specific time.  I guess if one could RSS that he could "ride
the wave, baby".
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 10, 2012, 09:20:31 PM

http://media.washtimes.com/media/image/2012/04/09/obama-us-brazil_live_s300x199.jpg?9095da026e6820e57b439d06d098b7b108fa2f86 (http://media.washtimes.com/media/image/2012/04/09/obama-us-brazil_live_s300x199.jpg?9095da026e6820e57b439d06d098b7b108fa2f86)

Quote
"What could Obama learn from Brazil President Dilma Rousseff?" The optimistic answer is: hopefully not much.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/apr/9/obamas-brazilian-model/ (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/apr/9/obamas-brazilian-model/)

And she lectured him on QE and threatened him with a BRIC.
Look at that angry puss. Whuff
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Sectionhand on April 11, 2012, 04:04:13 AM
Yeah, if gold dips below $1300 and silver below $25 you can bet your bottom dollar I am going to load up on more physical!

Those dumbasses on Dylan Ratassigan's program were talking about gold yesterday . The comparison was gold as a commodity just like "pork bellies" . How stupid can these people be ? You can't hold on to pork bellies for twenty years !
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 11, 2012, 07:29:06 AM
Yeah, if gold dips below $1300 and silver below $25 you can bet your bottom dollar I am going to load up on more physical!

Those dumbasses on Dylan Ratassigan's program were talking about gold yesterday . The comparison was gold as a commodity just like "pork bellies" . How stupid can these people be ? You can't hold on to pork bellies for twenty years !

Heh, yeah...metal, flesh...it's all non-perishable to a moron!

 ::hysterical::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 12, 2012, 11:00:27 AM
Hey, lookie!  Non-perishable gold is up $14 already...I hear rumors that QE3 is all but certain, yup, nothing drives up gold like beating the crap out of your own currency!

These one-trick Neo-Keynesian ponies...

 ::)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 18, 2012, 10:09:24 AM
This guy is killing me!  Really, recession is the only thing that can kill gold from rising?  We've been in a depressed economy for how long now?!  And higher gas prices will NOT stop these clowns from pumping whatever measley gain in GDP out this election year no matter!

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/gold-heading-700-author-sees-impending-collapse-124847501.html?l=1 (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/gold-heading-700-author-sees-impending-collapse-124847501.html?l=1)

PM's come down that low, I am selling off anything not nailed down to buy!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 18, 2012, 05:24:01 PM

"If we have a recession or slowing global growth then all assets fall -- it's a deflationary period," Jacobs says. "Even though a lot of people are expecting inflation, if we enter recession that means the price of assets falls. Gold will fall together with the rest of commodities."

[/quote]

Inflation is more money chasing goods and services right?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 18, 2012, 05:48:39 PM

"If we have a recession or slowing global growth then all assets fall -- it's a deflationary period," Jacobs says. "Even though a lot of people are expecting inflation, if we enter recession that means the price of assets falls. Gold will fall together with the rest of commodities."


Inflation is more money chasing goods and services right?

[/quote]
Technically inflation is just an increase in the money supply. It usually results in higher prices, but if the velocity of money is low, it may not.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 18, 2012, 08:30:23 PM

Somewhere in the middle of a nightmare night before last I worked out a scenario
by which we are headed and are going to have a depression.  I awoke with such a
start that I forgot the mechanics but it took awhile to get rid of the adrenalin.

Has there ever been an incidence where there has been so much available money
and no inflation?  Not being coy, I don't know.  It just doesn't seem plausible to
have the amount of money that's being floated around and not have inflation.


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 19, 2012, 07:10:50 AM
Like Weisshaupt said, supply is one thing, velocity another.  Typically when economies "overheat" it is because the velocity kicked in, usually a combination of easy money monetary policy, Neo-Keynesian fiscal stimulus and normal economic recovery which the central bankers did not properly time (which is the classic "overshoot" vs "soft-landing" or "undershoot").  Ceteris paribus, if the economy is weak and unemployment high adding money supply isn't too inflationary, soon as things improve if you are still doing easy money and stimulus it can get out of hand.  Rates rising/falling can expand/contract economic activity.  Right now we are still at ZIRP (zero interest rate policy).  The wildcard in this is the amount of money added to the money supply the past 4 years is floating out there, all that monetization of debt that has devalued our purchasing power, that has been the hidden burden we've been forced to accept.  The debt continues to rise, monetization continues with hints of QE3 around the corner and ZIRP is here to stay a while longer...and no improvement in sight.  If we get the velocity (driven by massive over-printing) with money supply already out there, well, what's a good example?  Zimbabwe?

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 20, 2012, 04:18:30 PM

Re: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/paul-mylchreest-presents-various-visual-case-studies-gold-price-manipulation (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/paul-mylchreest-presents-various-visual-case-studies-gold-price-manipulation)

They did it again.

08:10 AM  $1646.40
09:20 AM  $1637.80
10: 30 AM $1646.10

Silver
08:10 AM $31.92
09:20 AM $31.66
09:40 AM $31.78

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 22, 2012, 02:15:41 PM
Yeah, saw that, more notable in gold, but jeesh, the central banker fingerprints are obvious.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 23, 2012, 09:53:22 AM
Speaking of fingerprints...these ones are yellow! 

“And I’m going to tell you: you are going to go to sleep on Thursday night and gold may be $1,670. And then you wake up the next day and it’s going to be a banking holiday. And gold will be $3,000 bid, no offer,” he says.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/gold-expert-heres-why-you-need-to-be-buying-physical-gold-and-silver-hint-it-involves-china/ (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/gold-expert-heres-why-you-need-to-be-buying-physical-gold-and-silver-hint-it-involves-china/)

And the worst part is, The Regime's policies are helping feed the CHiCom's cheap gold!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 23, 2012, 11:13:12 AM

They have been converting US Treasury's into tangible items (buying African gold mines and everything else not nailed down) ever since it became obvious Obama was going to
monetize the debt.
 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 23, 2012, 11:32:28 AM
Perfect bumper sticker for Limosine 1 - "Our Leader is dumber than your Leader".

But I guess that's like saying the sky is blue...

 ::)

Punked by the ChiCom's though!  There was a time when even a Democrat would be appalled to let that happen.  Well, those days are long long dead...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 23, 2012, 11:52:56 AM

Punking validates his existence, it's an achievement of oneness for him.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 24, 2012, 08:06:51 AM
Yeah, he is one, that's for sure!   ::mooning:: 

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 24, 2012, 08:24:12 AM
Mexico & Russia biggest gold buyers in March.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/russia-and-mexico-both-buy-nearly-1-billion-worth-gold-march (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/russia-and-mexico-both-buy-nearly-1-billion-worth-gold-march)

OK, so typically if there is such demand for gold, baring any new big discoveries among the mining companies, the price should rise as demand increases.  But there is not enough price increase to explain all these purchases.  So it is either a net-zero trade on the supply end of existing physical, or there is some manipulation going on.  Who really has "too much gold" they can afford to part with out of the goodness of their heart?

So, any new discoveries?  I can only find one article - 40 tons -

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/27/sumitomo-metal-mining-idUSL3E8ER0FW20120327 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/27/sumitomo-metal-mining-idUSL3E8ER0FW20120327)

And Mining News isn't exactly flush with new discoveries.

http://www.petroleumnews.com/miningnewsnorth/index.shtml (http://www.petroleumnews.com/miningnewsnorth/index.shtml)

Typically, when PM prices rise, it becomes more advantageous to expand mining operations and exploration.  That appears to be going on, and I think there is some modest new deposits being brought to market, and there may be some release of mining company reserves when prices rise, so some demand could be easily satisfied without bumping prices, but prices should be rising more than they are IMO.

Anyway, something to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 24, 2012, 09:49:32 AM
Typically, when PM prices rise, it becomes more advantageous to expand mining operations and exploration.  That appears to be going on, and I think there is some modest new deposits being brought to market, and there may be some release of mining company reserves when prices rise, so some demand could be easily satisfied without bumping prices, but prices should be rising more than they are IMO.

I think you are right this is the same sort of price manipulation you are seeing in the Silver market. They just flood the market with Naked Shorts, and  then buy those contracts themselves.  The people who invest in Gold ETFs and other paper gold are going to be paid in fiat.  There have been numerous cases lately where physical deposits  were demanded ( ones upon which people paid for physical storage) and had to be settled for fiat because the bank couldn't deliver. These aren't small fry banks- this is Goldman Sachs etc.

Further the biggest store of gold is in people's dressers. In bad economic times a lot of "junk" Gold - jewerly etc is getting reclaimed as people go to the "cash for gold" place and get screwed. (http://www.scrapmonster.com/news/-recycled-gold-supply-declines-2-mine-production-up-4-in-2011-wgc/1/4855)   Scrap gold makes up at least a  third of the supply -  and as prices rise, more people are parting with it.  The article indicates that current sources of scrap gold are drying up, but that new ones in Italy and other strapped Euro countries (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/01/us-italy-gold-idUSTRE81020H20120201) as well as in the US are begining to produce more. 

Also Gold is like Oil. We know where a lot of it is, but for years it wasn't profitable to remove. Now it is, but also like oil, it takes time to ramp up, and you don't do that if you expect prices to fall before your production can be started.   

But the real factor is that we  haven't reached the point where the majority see the Gold as money. Hell, we haven't reached the point where the majority see that the point of no return has been crossed. Even if buying gold, they by and large don't demand physical possesion and take the world of people who say they have it "safe"- its paper, and eventually those contracts will be worht only the paper and ink.

It is entirely  possible that bullion may never be money again - the sheep might just accept the new blue currency and go on as before.  Countries who are buying want to acquire as much as they can at the low price, so they can't demand physical faster than its produced - so they don't.  The key thing to watch is the physical "premium" - I tend to watch APMEX $500 junk silver bags - as that is the cheapest and most recognizable bullion available. . If there is a real physical shortage ( like after the 2008 crash)  they simply won't have junk silver or anything for sale - it will all be "backordered" -- right now we have a medium/low temp on physical l demand- I have seen premiums as much as $0.50 an ounce on Junk silver at APMEX - much higher than they start having the "shortages" - right now the premium is around $0.20.  Point is its a quasi proxy for physical demand.  The lowest I have seen is $0.10. If you buy a bag of junk silver from Apmex they remember and send you offers to buy it back if they are running low.

The Price won't skyrocket until its obvious that a recovery is not on the horizon, and a real run on physical starts.  The big players know what is going on, but they don't want to start a run.. they will acquire at manipulated prices as long as they can, and will buy only so much as the supply will allow at that price.. There is no point in bidding up  the price in hopes of getting more physical than can be supplied in the first place. Better to play the game and milk the cow till the cow is slaughtered by other forces. Same as we have been doing. Silver is almost to my "Dip Price" again now.  Buy more.  Sit on it. Wait for the next dip. Repeat. 

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 24, 2012, 11:42:20 AM
Agree 100%.  I too like watching premiums, and APMEX is where I usually buy physical.  Seeing what the premiums are and what is in/out of stock are indicators as to what the retail market is thinking.  I've been buying silver on dips regularly.  Premiums for 1oz rounds of 20+ is about 8.1%, would like to see that lower, especially since there is S&H on top of that.

 ::thumbsup::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 25, 2012, 02:33:53 PM

11:50      1640.80
12:40      1625.40
01:40      1644.40
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 25, 2012, 02:48:25 PM
Average Joe Blow -  ::hanging::

Average Insider -  ::bigmooning::

Required response by Joe's & Jane's -  ::asskicking::

What we get from the Regulators -  ::doublebird::

What I feel like -  ::smalldeadhorse::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 30, 2012, 12:27:35 PM
 Gold ETFs are on the Wanr, and Physical Delivery is coming up.. (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-golds-value-today)

How long till the naked shorts and non-delivery kill the comex.
Its not chickens who come home to roost- its black swans. I see dozens on the horizon.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 30, 2012, 01:25:23 PM

Quote

Physical precious metals (but especially gold) are the only liquid assets with negligible counter-party risk.


The ratio of cogent commentary regarding fiat paper being
manipulated by states and banks causing the paper to lose value
while pirating our wealth versus positive commentary defending this
current activity as sound policy is nill. 

I don't want to believe all we have is going blow up ala wheelbarrows
of dollars for a loaf of bread but I haven't read a convincing rosy scenario
yet.

There will be a correction, whether it will require wheelbarrows and shovels
I don't know.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 30, 2012, 02:44:27 PM
Those swans usually are black after they are burnt to a crisp!

 ::exitstageleft::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 30, 2012, 03:03:57 PM

There will be a correction, whether it will require wheelbarrows and shovels
I don't know.


I know I am doom and gloom guy, but I don't think it will degenerate quite that far.  Unlike Weimar or Zimbabwe, the world participates in our currency, and I think they are going to call a halt to the charade before we get to the wheelbarrows stage.  When that happens , I would expect that the government will call a bank holiday, and a new ( possibly Amero or IMF currency)  will be introduced at an annoyingly bad exchange rate.  The world can call a halt to this any number of ways - by crashing the comex, by selling treasuries, or simply ending the petro-dollar and using something else for Oil sales.

At that moment, the paper wealth of America will cease to exist, quite a few other countries and economies will take a huge balance-sheet hit,  and pretty much the entire world will be reduced to third world living because the Capital in "Capitalism", will have been effectively wiped out for most, and for those who did protect their wealth and means to produce,  they will find the market available to buy their production to be vastly diminished.  It will a few months to two years of pain as the system resets, a new currency emerges and the dust settles, during which we will see shortages of all types, - and if they are the right types, then fuel, food, sanitation and water will become  scarce. Then we are at the dangerous and unpredictable bit  ( assuming WWIII hasn't already made it unpredictable before the collapse)  but one can rest assured it will involve a lot of unpleasant violence and dangerous living until local environments reach  the population levels that can reasonably sustain the folks who live there.




Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 30, 2012, 10:10:32 PM

IT'S OUT!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/todays-124-billion-targeted-gold-slam-down-makes-mainstream-press (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/todays-124-billion-targeted-gold-slam-down-makes-mainstream-press)

we find that the WSJ has finally picked up on the topic of the endless daily gold slam down

[8:31 AM ->]
The sale took out blocks of bids as large as 84 contracts in one fell swoop and cut prices down to $1,648.80 a troy ounce. The overall transaction was worth more than $1.24 billion...

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 01, 2012, 07:23:27 AM
Yup, this time the camera caught the crap hitting the fan just as COMEX threw it.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 01, 2012, 02:46:37 PM
Uhh, something else happen shortly after 10am this morning?

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5)

 ::cussing::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 02, 2012, 11:54:29 AM
Gold is #1 "safest long-term investment" in America.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/americas-safest-long-term-investment-gold-gallup (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/americas-safest-long-term-investment-gold-gallup)

Seems rather obvious all PM's will be the top of the pyramid in the new economy.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 02, 2012, 12:49:52 PM

Quote

"CME Group Inc.’s Comex halted trading in gold futures for about 10 seconds yesterday at 8:31 a.m. after prices declined,"


Further discourse would have been illuminating.



Uhh, something else happen shortly after 10am this morning?

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5)

 ::cussing::

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bis-fxgold-intervention-profiles-and-after (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bis-fxgold-intervention-profiles-and-after)


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 02, 2012, 01:26:11 PM

Quote

"CME Group Inc.’s Comex halted trading in gold futures for about 10 seconds yesterday at 8:31 a.m. after prices declined,"


Further discourse would have been illuminating incriminating.



Uhh, something else happen shortly after 10am this morning?

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5)

 ::cussing::

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bis-fxgold-intervention-profiles-and-after (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bis-fxgold-intervention-profiles-and-after)




FIFY!   ::thumbsup::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 02, 2012, 02:36:44 PM

An invitation to non members:

As of today this topic has been viewed 8775 times
assuming half of those views are bots then this topic has been
viewed close to 4387 times.  Assuming one-third of  those views
were by members  about 2924 views were by non members.

You 2924 are an eclectic group. Why don't you come on
and join up and share your opinions and observations. 
You will be welcomed, come on in.

 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on May 02, 2012, 03:09:34 PM

An invitation to non members:

As of today this topic has been viewed 8775 times
assuming half of those views are bots then this topic has been
viewed close to 4387 times.  Assuming one-third of  those views
were by members  about 2924 views were by non members.

You 2924 are an eclectic group. Why don't you come on
and join up and share your opinions and observations. 
You will be welcomed, come on in.

 

I'd be happy if one of you three gurus, Libertas/Charles/Weisshaupt, would explain to us me, not understanding much of the lingo, just what the hell is going on. 

 ::curtsy4::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 02, 2012, 03:43:09 PM

I'd be happy if one of you three gurus, Libertas/Charles/Weisshaupt, would explain to us me, not understanding much of the lingo, just what the hell is going on. 

 ::curtsy4::

Same things as always. Lying. Cheating. and Stealing.
Offering no evidence  at all to prove it, I suspect one of the Bots placing offers  on COMEX got our of sync with one of the BOTs placing BUYS.   Basically the suspicion (with varying amounts of evidence to support it) is that large companies are putting large volumes of FAKE offers onto the market .. basically a "future" is a  promise to sell you 10 Oz of silver or gold in 3 months at an agreed to price.   People who are "short" will sell their future gold now  with the expectation that the price will go DOWN. and buyers of the contract expect the price in the future will be high.  So A "Naked Short" is a short where the person actually has no Silver or Gold to sell. The Same (or another entity in cahoot) "buys" that contract -- thus it appears a transaction took place - even no no gold or silver will actually change hands.  These transactions are done by computer at high frequency (in the nanoseconds) so that its unlikely that anyone but themselves will respond to the bid.

 By putting a large volume of transactions into the market its possible to sway the price up or down as desired.  In theory this added volatility will shake out the "weak hands" - people who "invest" with borrowed money, who need to pay cash on those loans as the assets they purchased with them go down in value-- a "margin call"   - The suspicion  now is that they are now deliberately forcing the price of Gold and Silver down  to prevent them from skyrocketing  and causing financial chaos.  This is being done in the regular  stock markets as well.

So in theory the computer trying to drive the price down got out of sync with the one accepting those bids, and thus the price continued downwards seeking a "buy" Of course at some point Real people want to buy at those low prices. OOPS.. Better shut that down!

Or at least, that is my working theory. Anyone want to correct iit?


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on May 02, 2012, 03:48:38 PM
Quote
Same things as always. Lying. Cheating. and Stealing.

First:   ::rolllaughing::

Second:     ::gaah::

I 'bout figured that much out myself, just didn't know who, what, where or why, so thank you very much for the explanation.

You've been saying for some time now, as has Ann Barnhardt, that no "body" is really in "the market" any longer; it's a few (?) computers simulating a whole lot of activity.  Whose computers?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 02, 2012, 04:36:44 PM
You've been saying for some time now, as has Ann Barnhardt, that no "body" is really in "the market" any longer; it's a few (?) computers simulating a whole lot of activity.  Whose computers?

Pretty much anyone can buy a High Frequency link to an exchange, and many exchanges keep their member information confidential, so its difficult to see who is doing what to whom.. there is even some talk that some links are not equal to others giving some players an advantage - and probably an advantage they paid for.  We know ts going on from the raw data feed, but Who gets harder to pin down. 

But its "people with money" or "access to money" - i.e. Big banks, Hedge Funds etc. . Zerohedge has found evidence of bids being accepted and settled  before they have been made - and of course the guy on Etrade etc, can't bid as fast as these machine can, and thus they are "safe" doing such things-- there is almost no chance an actual human will grab one of these bids, and if they do, its just cheaper to pay the contract and keep moving.




Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 02, 2012, 07:19:33 PM

At CT NoNoSegundo said that was what
he did and explained it in detail.

This  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bis-fxgold-intervention-profiles-and-after (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bis-fxgold-intervention-profiles-and-after)   from above post is a take on who some of the banks are and why Europe , much as Weisshaupt  said, wants/needs the price down. 

BIS (Bank for International Settlements) execution team.
They are also making boatloads, literally, of money.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 03, 2012, 07:03:46 AM
Good explanation Weisshaupt, the key is in the squeezing of the margin accounts, it's what the PTB's have been doing ever since QE hit, they are all about pummelling the goldbugs...it's like a game of whack-a-mole to them...and it is the central bankers and other big players in on this manipulation.  It is about the only real evidence I see of a legitimate cabal at play in the world today that is well documented at ZeroHedge, even though ZeroHedge can be outright moonbatty about seeing a cabal under every bed.  I also suspect the PPT is in on this fun, since so many of them are tied into big money banks brokerages and thick political connections to the Fed & Treasury.  And the PPT cannot operate without the BIS.

Interesting how the BIS has this little blurb at the bottom of their "About Us" page -

"As its customers are central banks and international organisations, the BIS does not accept deposits from, or provide financial services to, private individuals or corporate entities. The BIS strongly advises caution against fraudulent schemes."

I'm sure the PPT feels properly cautioned.

 ::)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on May 03, 2012, 07:36:04 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47273745 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47273745)

Soybeans just under $15 now. 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 03, 2012, 09:47:48 AM
Yeah, soybeans have had a good run since the start of the year...

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZS (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZS)

...and lumber seems to be still testing a new highs...

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LB (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LB)

Who is grabbing that wood?  With new construction still seemingly depressed...

 ::whatgives::

Arks?  FEMA camps?

 ::foilhathelicopter::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 08, 2012, 10:36:36 AM
Eurosis is being blamed for the decline in everything today, but Jeesh!  Every PM is dropping!

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5)

WTF?  People just taking cash, hoarding up on Slim Jim's and Old Crow and heading for the hills or what?

 ::whatgives::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 08, 2012, 01:51:24 PM
In other words: Nothing Has Changed; Central Banks have only one trick which they will use when necessary; normal assets will waver in risk-on/risk-off mode because of that; commodities offer protection from the profligacy with an upside growth cover.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/buying-commodity-dip (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/buying-commodity-dip)

I'll buy that!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 08, 2012, 05:04:19 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTRO#Long_Term_Refinancing_Operation_.28LTRO.29 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTRO#Long_Term_Refinancing_Operation_.28LTRO.29)

ECB

The primary objective of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone, which is the same as keeping inflation low.
...
Long term refinancing operation

Though the ECB's main refinancing operations (MRO) are from repo auctions with a (bi)weekly maturity and monthly maturation, the ECB now conducts Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs), maturing after three months, six months, 12 months and 36 months.
***

LTRO 2 happened in March,  WTF happened today?
                                                                                 
                                                                                                     8913
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 09, 2012, 06:55:43 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTRO#Long_Term_Refinancing_Operation_.28LTRO.29 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTRO#Long_Term_Refinancing_Operation_.28LTRO.29)

ECB

The primary objective of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone, which is the same as keeping inflation low.
...
Long term refinancing operation

Though the ECB's main refinancing operations (MRO) are from repo auctions with a (bi)weekly maturity and monthly maturation, the ECB now conducts Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs), maturing after three months, six months, 12 months and 36 months.
***

LTRO 2 happened in March,  WTF happened today?
                                                                                 
                                                                                                     8913

Talk about a wide stance!  Larry Craig has nothing on Euro spreads!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ltro-bank-stigma-widest-ltro-announcement (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ltro-bank-stigma-widest-ltro-announcement)

And I suspect the ever-growing toxicity is driving Germany to push for removing Greece from the Euro Zone while leaving them in the EU....I'm sure that will go over well with the Greeks!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german-lawmakers-prep-greek-eurozone-exit-handelsblatt (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german-lawmakers-prep-greek-eurozone-exit-handelsblatt)

In the meantime....

As a follow up to yesterday on Gold...yesterday was BTFD day! 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/btfd (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/btfd)

Will there be more?


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 14, 2012, 11:20:13 AM
China's stagnating planned economy and EU worries (Greece et all) pushing oil lower...maybe fuel costs won't be so bad this summer?

http://news.yahoo.com/oil-down-near-94-china-europe-concerns-120845026--finance.html (http://news.yahoo.com/oil-down-near-94-china-europe-concerns-120845026--finance.html)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 15, 2012, 08:04:10 AM
Found another site selling PM's...haven't used them yet but their prices on some things look better than APMEX, I might shoot an order over soon and see how it goes.

http://www.providentmetals.com/ (http://www.providentmetals.com/)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 17, 2012, 01:34:22 PM
Backwardation In Gold And Silver

Because the next successive contracts are not in backwardation (in silver, all contracts from Jul 2015 on are backwardated), it is not a collapse of trust.  I think that it is a lack of unencumbered metal.  The markets for precious metals, silver more than gold, have become quite tight.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-backwardation-gold-and-silver (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-backwardation-gold-and-silver)

Buy & stack, baby!

Also, these charts are always impressive, really put things in eprspective -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-gold-tells-truth (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-gold-tells-truth)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 17, 2012, 03:23:31 PM
Quote

Central bankers can’t just abolish history. On
the other hand, history may very well abolish
the central bankers and their fiat currencies.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Predator Don on May 17, 2012, 07:44:42 PM
China's stagnating planned economy and EU worries (Greece et all) pushing oil lower...maybe fuel costs won't be so bad this summer?

http://news.yahoo.com/oil-down-near-94-china-europe-concerns-120845026--finance.html (http://news.yahoo.com/oil-down-near-94-china-europe-concerns-120845026--finance.html)


Also helps the dollar has gained some strength...Not that it should, but with the euro to compete.....
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 18, 2012, 07:30:15 AM
Quote

Central bankers can’t just abolish history. On
the other hand, history may very well abolish
the central bankers and their fiat currencies.


Bullish on lamp posts.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 18, 2012, 07:32:28 AM
China's stagnating planned economy and EU worries (Greece et all) pushing oil lower...maybe fuel costs won't be so bad this summer?

http://news.yahoo.com/oil-down-near-94-china-europe-concerns-120845026--finance.html (http://news.yahoo.com/oil-down-near-94-china-europe-concerns-120845026--finance.html)


Also helps the dollar has gained some strength...Not that it should, but with the euro to compete.....

Yeah, it always kills me when people say this or that is strong, when in reality it is more often the case now days that something else turned into a bigger turd making this other turd just a little less stinky.

 ::)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 18, 2012, 10:58:08 AM
Yeah, it always kills me when people say this or that is strong, when in reality it is more often the case now days that something else turned into a bigger turd making this other turd just a little less stinky.

Hey  Guess what Timmy said  (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/geithner-comes-clean-i-dont-understand-it)

Quote
JEFFREY BROWN: So you think he's got a record on jobs and the economy that he can proudly run on?

TIMOTHY GEITHNER: Absolutely. And again, if you look at -- look at how we're doing relative to any other major country in the world today. Look at how we managed our crisis relative to what, not just how the U.S. managed in the past or how Japan did, but look at Europe today, and if you look at any measure that we can point to of economic strength, they provide overwhelming support for the choices he made early on. And remember, those were tough - very tough choices, put out the financial fires, get growth started. He did it with almost no help from his opponents, deep political costs, and those things made us -- make us stronger today.

You see, our sh*t stinks less. We are strong.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on May 18, 2012, 11:03:28 AM
Yeah, it always kills me when people say this or that is strong, when in reality it is more often the case now days that something else turned into a bigger turd making this other turd just a little less stinky.

Hey  Guess what Timmy said  (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/geithner-comes-clean-i-dont-understand-it)

Quote
JEFFREY BROWN: So you think he's got a record on jobs and the economy that he can proudly run on?

TIMOTHY GEITHNER: Absolutely. And again, if you look at -- look at how we're doing relative to any other major country in the world today. Look at how we managed our crisis relative to what, not just how the U.S. managed in the past or how Japan did, but look at Europe today, and if you look at any measure that we can point to of economic strength, they provide overwhelming support for the choices he made early on. And remember, those were tough - very tough choices, put out the financial fires, get growth started. He did it with almost no help from his opponents, deep political costs, and those things made us -- make us stronger today.

You see, our sh*t stinks less. We are strong.

This is what I've been saying about "poverty" having no objective standard now; it's comparative.  And now, expanded globally.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 18, 2012, 11:04:28 AM
I read these people like cheap comic book characters...

I just wish those would all stay fictional...

 ::unknowncomic::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Predator Don on May 18, 2012, 05:05:45 PM
Wanna know why Romney has money in the caymans? Just look to little Timmy and chunky.



It's people like little Timmy and little chunky, going after mr Saverin, co founder of Facebook, for renouncing his citizenship and going to a no capital gains country, as little chunky attempts to tax him at 30 percent......


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 20, 2012, 11:56:40 AM
When your liberty is under assault one obvious casualty is your pocketbook, beating up people for wanting to keep the looters at bay is some form of perverted patriotism, isn't it?!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on May 20, 2012, 07:22:24 PM
When your liberty is under assault one obvious casualty is your pocketbook, beating up people for wanting to keep the looters at bay is some form of perverted patriotism, isn't it?!

To listen to Schumer pontificate about his method of choice for preventing this sort of thing, one knows he thinks the money belongs first to the government; he's actually as pissed as if it's his pocket being picked.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 20, 2012, 09:15:15 PM

To listen to Schumer pontificate about his method of choice for preventing this sort of thing, one knows he thinks the money belongs first to the government; he's actually as pissed as if it's his pocket being picked.

Why else would a Tax Cut "cost" something? 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on May 20, 2012, 09:18:27 PM
Precisely.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Sectionhand on May 21, 2012, 05:12:38 AM
When your liberty is under assault one obvious casualty is your pocketbook, beating up people for wanting to keep the looters at bay is some form of perverted patriotism, isn't it?!

To listen to Schumer pontificate about his method of choice for preventing this sort of thing, one knows he thinks the money belongs first to the government; he's actually as pissed as if it's his pocket being picked.

What else would you expect from a guy who's never held a job outside of politics ?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 21, 2012, 08:21:38 AM
I expect nothing but lies and bullsh*t from proglodytes and I can honestly say I've never been caught by surprise.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 21, 2012, 09:35:55 AM
Good breakdown on gold -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/why-has-gold-fallen-price-and-what-outlook (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/why-has-gold-fallen-price-and-what-outlook)

I would expect the Eurocontagion fears to support the dollar...once that stabilizes or if the crisis deepens I would look for gold to regain strength...so in the meantime buying opportunities exists for physical purchases...then I think QE kicks in and the slow walk turns into a gallop.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 22, 2012, 09:36:09 PM

"What's the word of a liar worth?"

UNCLE SAM BULLYING BROKERS OVER SILVER? [Plus, JPM's $7 Billion Blunder] - Woody O'Brien (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERLiHp0d3kQ#)

This is a very interesting interview, and O'Brien talks about the JP Morgan prop trade debacle. Jamie Dimon initially said the losses were $2 billion. Now people are talking about it being $7 billion. I think it is $30+ billion. Why? Because as ZeroHedge pointed out, JP Morgan has stopped their stock buy-back program even though their share price has tanked. Interestingly, JPM was told by the Fed that IF they suffered a $31 Billion dollar prop trade loss, they would have to suspend all stock buy-backs.

Uh-huh. Dollars to doughnuts says JPM lost at minimum $30 billion.

That piece is here.  (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-fed-just-give-us-very-big-clue-just-how-big-jpms-cio-loss-may-be)
                                                                     _ _ _Ann Barnhardt

     
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 23, 2012, 07:05:15 AM
Yeah, saw that.

My favorite comment on the ZH article?  "Rounding error". 

Yeah, I mistake $2b for $30b every day...

/
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 31, 2012, 08:17:25 AM
Demand and risk issues could see an increase in PM prices.

Could be at/near the current bottom.  Have to see if the current bump in gold is sustainable.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rises-40-markets-fall-sharply-safe-haven-tipping-point (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-rises-40-markets-fall-sharply-safe-haven-tipping-point)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 31, 2012, 09:46:22 AM

 9:49   -   1572.90
10:12  -   1551:90

It's on it's way back up now. 
Just a little hit and run on it's
journey.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 31, 2012, 11:37:51 AM
1564.40 now.  The beat down is thwarted by those they panicked too much and who didn't want to play with currencies or other paper assets...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 01, 2012, 07:46:00 AM
ZH article on the gold standard -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-myths-and-realities-returning-gold-standard (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-myths-and-realities-returning-gold-standard)

Since ZH is Libertarian and big cheerleaders for Ron Paul there is a bias towards returning to the gold standard, but it is not the end all be all of economic and monetary sanity returning to the land.

The looters will simply debase gold as they debase currency, and profligate spending and mountains of debt will continue until it collapses utterly.  All the government has to do is confiscate private stocks, melt it down, skim, and return debased metal to owners.  Rinse/repeat for the rest of time...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 01, 2012, 09:15:21 AM
On the wake of todays disasterous employment numbers...Gold just gave the middle finger to Obamanomics and Chairman Bernanke...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-explodes-spam-unchanged (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-explodes-spam-unchanged)

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5)

Ha Haaa!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 01, 2012, 10:28:33 AM
*
http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif (http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif)
May 31  close     1560.20
June 01 18:00    1626.30

Does have that "up yours" look, doesn't it?


*Chart will be removed at the end of trading.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 01, 2012, 10:43:54 AM
 ;D

Yuuuuup!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 05, 2012, 09:20:29 PM

This is a live chart so take a good look right now:

June 05, 19:50  - 1615.90
June 05, 21:20  - 1627.70

Here Comes The Hilsenrath Leak: "Fed Considers More Action"
 06/05/2012 - 19:29 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-come-hilsenrath-leak-fed-considers-more-action) - "Fed Considers More Action Amid New Recovery Doubts." And as it has been leaked (now that people have actually done the appropriate math), so it shall be.

ETA:   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/negative-5y5y-2200-gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/negative-5y5y-2200-gold)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 06, 2012, 07:31:54 AM
Yeah, caught ZH this AM, how is the Fed going to sell more QE with inflation on the horizon?  How can they ease?  from ZIRP to NIRP?   ::)

There is no good way out of this and instead of doing the right thing and take your pain now, they'll continue to manipulate themselves to a soft landing that will never come, thus ensuring the landing we do get it brutally jarring.

Say your prayers.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 07, 2012, 09:28:23 AM
Just the usual manipulation, The BenBernanke speaks to Congress...dollar up, PM's down...BTFD!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/live-webcast-bernanke-testimony-joint-economic-committee (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/live-webcast-bernanke-testimony-joint-economic-committee)

 ::foilhathelicopter::

That must be Ben in the helo!

(http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nygold.gif)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html (http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Predator Don on June 07, 2012, 01:29:32 PM
Didn't hear Bernake...... I assumed the markets jumped because of the talk of more free money coming thier way. Haven't checked the market today.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 08, 2012, 07:52:49 AM
I listened to a livestream of it...hearing the idiot demonrats bloviate about nothing but trying to sound like they have a brain cell was nauseating, the simultaneous postings on ZH were fun, everybody groaning about morons asking the questions and the moron failing to answer them.

It will be thumb-twiddling a bit longer to see what the Euro-crisis brings before Helicopter Ben decides to throw paper out the door again...

Prolonging the inevitable, yeah, that'll work...

 ::unknowncomic::

On a lighter side, Hitler surfaces again...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hitler-long-usd-gets-margin-call (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hitler-long-usd-gets-margin-call)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 11, 2012, 10:07:48 AM
Visualizing China's Voracious Appetite For Gold
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/visualizing-chinas-voracious-appetite-gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/visualizing-chinas-voracious-appetite-gold)

Mmmm... nom, nom, nom nom!!!

Get some, BTFD!

!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 11, 2012, 01:09:38 PM
Oh, and let's not forget gulp, gulp, gulp!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guess-what-else-china-hoarding (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guess-what-else-china-hoarding)

Hmm, global depression is still all the rage, bad news out of Europe spilling out everyday, poor economic numbers in America, Asia not faring much better...bottome line global oil demand is down, so...either the ChiCom's-

a) Are admiting their domestic production is declining
b) Are preparing to invade someone
c) Are worried someone will invade them
d) Are worried the world supplies will be disrupted (Iran?)
e) Are intentionally instituting a planned haording strategy in light of any or all the above

I'll go all-in on "e"!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on June 11, 2012, 01:47:54 PM
My Apmex physical barometer is way up-- $1.15/oz premium on the $500 face value bag of junk silver. $28.30 for spot? 29.50 for physical with no collectible value and only 90% pure. Pre- 2008 the premium on that stuff was under a dime.

The disconnect is getting wider.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 12, 2012, 07:03:30 AM
Yeah I like keeping an eye on those premiums too, there seems to be spike, and I think it is more than current demand opportunity driving it, I think anticipated short-term demand is expected to rise.  Seeing the current world economic conditions as they are and central banks loading up more (especially the Chinese) indicates money is flowing into hard assets and away from paper.  The more that happens the more hits the paper assets will take and it will really expedite paper crashes.  Even with those premiums the recent pullback in prices seems to indicate the buying window should still be open for those wanting to get physical.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 13, 2012, 07:58:49 AM
Poor retail sales numbers, more anticipation for QE3...and PM's pop up.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Predator Don on June 13, 2012, 12:21:11 PM
Poor retail sales numbers, more anticipation for QE3...and PM's pop up.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5)

QE3....LOL.

Obama lambasts the "rich", while unloading free money on the market. I'm sure the poor and middle class will flourish.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 13, 2012, 01:56:57 PM
Poor retail sales numbers, more anticipation for QE3...and PM's pop up.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5)

QE3....LOL.

Obama lambasts the "rich", while unloading free money on the market. I'm sure the poor and middle class will flourish.

Yeah, his crony capitalists will prosper while everybody else gets the shaft!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Predator Don on June 13, 2012, 03:36:41 PM
Poor retail sales numbers, more anticipation for QE3...and PM's pop up.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5)

QE3....LOL.

Obama lambasts the "rich", while unloading free money on the market. I'm sure the poor and middle class will flourish.

Yeah, his crony capitalists will prosper while everybody else gets the shaft!

Amazing how gullible the chosen ones followers are....
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on June 25, 2012, 11:06:41 AM
The disconnect between SPOT price and Real, "gimme my bullion" price continues.

Last night $500 face value 90% junk silver bag  now carried a premium of $1.45/oz at APMEX. - when Silver was at 26.70 or so
This morning Silver is at 27.46 and the premium is $1.50/oz

Oh yeah, its on sale! The fact that the premium is going up even with price going up means that Apmex isn't just trying to profit a bit from the dip-- they know the demand is outstripping the spot price by quite a bit.. and selling it  priced accordingly.   in 2008 a movement in silver of $0.10 in a day is a lot and premiums were $0.05 to $0.20 - through most of 2011 they were $0.40, and this least year they rose to $0.85..

The physical market must certainly be heating up.. and these are "junk coins" with no collectors value. They are only 90% silver. This is the bottom of the barrel of the "investors" silver market. So either we have a bunch of preppers chasing junk silver as a fad- enough to move the premium over  $1 on a $30 purchase, or we are reaching the point of no returns on the physical silver market.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on June 25, 2012, 05:05:46 PM
Now the Junk Silver is back down to $1.45/oz premium,but it isn't available until 7/6/2012

Physical supply is seeing another "run"
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 26, 2012, 07:29:56 AM
I like the 1oz rounds, 20 fit in them plastic holder doohickies nice, but the premiums are higher, and if you pay by credit card they suck another $.89/oz out of you.

ETA - Silver did come down though, might have to think about another order regardless of premium.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on June 26, 2012, 10:02:27 AM
I like the 1oz rounds, 20 fit in them plastic holder doohickies nice, but the premiums are higher, and if you pay by credit card they suck another $.89/oz out of you.

ETA - Silver did come down though, might have to think about another order regardless of premium.

Yeah, I  have been thinking about it too. I have just never paid a premium that high.  My junk silver ( which was lost in a boating accident) I paid $0.13 /oz for. -- And we would buy the non-mint silver rounds ( also lost in that boating accident)  for a premium of $0.99 and that was after the price had climbed into the high 20s. - now they are $1.50/oz on par with the Junk silver. (and the Apmex Buy price is $0.10 more than the current ask. -- Physical is decoupling from the paper.  The parity  of Junk Silver with the silver rounds is also interesting: the junk silver primary purpose is an emergency spending supply. They are easily recognized, produced by the U.S. mint, and people will know what they are quickly.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 26, 2012, 11:49:32 AM
I like the 1oz rounds, 20 fit in them plastic holder doohickies nice, but the premiums are higher, and if you pay by credit card they suck another $.89/oz out of you.

ETA - Silver did come down though, might have to think about another order regardless of premium.

Yeah, I  have been thinking about it too. I have just never paid a premium that high.  My junk silver ( which was lost in a boating accident) I paid $0.13 /oz for. -- And we would buy the non-mint silver rounds ( also lost in that boating accident)  for a premium of $0.99 and that was after the price had climbed into the high 20s. - now they are $1.50/oz on par with the Junk silver. (and the Apmex Buy price is $0.10 more than the current ask. -- Physical is decoupling from the paper.  The parity  of Junk Silver with the silver rounds is also interesting: the junk silver primary purpose is an emergency spending supply. They are easily recognized, produced by the U.S. mint, and people will know what they are quickly.


Yeah, don't worry about the premiums too much at these prices, and it is so weird, I too have had a lot of boating accidents...there's a lot of treasure at the bottom of our nations waterways!

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 16, 2012, 06:36:01 AM
I guess food prices will be soaring, look what corn, soybean, oats & wheat etc has been doing!

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GRAINS&p=d1 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GRAINS&p=d1)

 ::speechless::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on July 16, 2012, 08:12:20 AM
I just caught an article along that line over the weekend.  Yikes!

Corn - $7.71, up 4.15% (That's just today!)
Wheat - $8.75 up 3.24%
Beans - $15.91 up 2.51%

Which of course means that it would be a great time for Pawlenty to go Full Retard on 15% gasohol mandates!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 16, 2012, 11:24:46 AM
Yep, pay more for less, isn't latter day Amerika a kick?!

Speaking of T-Paw and going full retard...I hear Timmy is the latest hot rumor to be Mitt's Veep.

(More) Mandates for the nation, what a deal!

/

 ::falldownshocked::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on July 17, 2012, 08:59:29 AM
Corn - $7.82
Wheat - $8.88
Beans - $15.93
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 17, 2012, 11:21:10 AM
I bet even dirt is going up...

 ::facepalm::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 12, 2012, 11:43:16 PM

ZH (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/golds-recent-resilience)

What is critically clear is that gold's gyrations and uncertainty relative all of these three indicators since the end of LTRO2 has fallen suggesting its diversification and 'hedge-ability' for both risk-on (liquidity-driven exuberance) and risk-off (safe-haven sourcing in a NIRP world) is increasingly appealing.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 13, 2012, 06:45:00 AM
The end of this century will sure look a lot different than the start...long after we've been buried barter economics will be the norm and being cursed as a theif will be the worst insult possible...and those guilty of theft will be immediately culled from the herd.  Our generations will not be looked at kindly, the few who warned of its folly may be remembered as well as its most nefarious proponents...everyone else will be forgotten and looked at as fools.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 21, 2012, 11:53:23 PM

If I remember correctly this is about the time
my great grandfather gave his favorite daughter
a charm bracelet strung with drilled $10.00 gold
pieces.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/08/Executive_Order_6102.jpg)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 22, 2012, 06:29:40 AM
That's one executive order that would be met with lots of resistence today.

Order 6102 specifically exempted "customary use in industry, profession or art"—a provision that covered artists, jewellers, dentists, and sign makers among others. The order further permitted any person to own up to $100 in gold coins (a face value equivalent to 5 troy ounces (160 g) of Gold valued at about $7800 as of 2011). The same paragraph also exempted "gold coins having recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins." This protected recognized gold coin collections from legal seizure and likely melting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102)

Yeah, likely melting, aka debasement like the corrupt hereditary kings of old...  FDR may not have invented theft but he sure enjoyed doing it.   ::doublebird::

Too bad all my PM's were lost in an unfortunate boating accident.

Speaking of PM's, Platinum futures sure are taking off like a rocket lately!

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx (http://finviz.com/futures.ashx)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 22, 2012, 07:15:14 AM
http://www.france24.com/en/20120822-us-corn-soy-prices-hit-records-drought-lingers (http://www.france24.com/en/20120822-us-corn-soy-prices-hit-records-drought-lingers)

Corn has been going like crazy, for all too obvious reasons, unless your a lefty ignoramus...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on August 22, 2012, 08:28:51 AM

If I remember correctly this is about the time
my great grandfather gave his favorite daughter
a charm bracelet strung with drilled $10.00 gold
pieces.

A lot of the gold was melted down and made into jewelry which was exempt from the confiscation. There were a lot of solid gold chain links made - which in't a bad way to have gold BTW - a chain link is a small enough portion of gold that it can be used in everyday transactions for groceries etc.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 22, 2012, 04:07:16 PM
I bet even dirt is going up...

 ::facepalm::

Ha, just saw that.  Yeah, about 300% over the last 10yrs in some places.
Pretty good return.
***

Spot gold was last quoted up $8.20 an ounce at $1,647.25.  (http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120822JW_pm.html)

Most market watchers are now looking ahead to next week’s annual Jackson Hole Federal Reserve confab, which will feature remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. It’s either at that time or at the mid-September FOMC meeting that many hope the Fed announces a new monetary stimulus plan—nicknamed QE3.


I've seen this movie before and the play stands;
there will be a brief recession, there will be inflation
(note to self: buy CD's at 14) and gold will go to the
'80-'81 equivalent high, about 2200, before it drops.

If Obama wins all bets are off.




Edit to add this tidbit:

LUBBOCK (CBSDFW.COM (http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2012/08/22/texas-judge-preparing-for-civil-war-if-obama-re-elected/)) - A Texas leader is warning of what he calls a ‘civil war’ and possible invasion of United Nations troops if President Barack Obama is re-elected.

Lubbock County Judge Tom Head is convinced that Mr. Obama winning a second term would lead to a revolt by the American people ... He says the money is needed to “beef up” it’s resources in case President Obama wins the November election.

In the event of civil unrest Judge Head said he’s concerned the President would hand over sovereignty of the United States to the U.N. and that the American public would react violently.
...


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 22, 2012, 10:28:11 PM
I bet even dirt is going up...

 ::facepalm::

Ha, just saw that.  Yeah, about 300% over the last 10yrs in some places.
Pretty good return.
***

Spot gold was last quoted up $8.20 an ounce at $1,647.25.  (http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120822JW_pm.html)

Most market watchers are now looking ahead to next week’s annual Jackson Hole Federal Reserve confab, which will feature remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. It’s either at that time or at the mid-September FOMC meeting that many hope the Fed announces a new monetary stimulus plan—nicknamed QE3.


I've seen this movie before and the play stands;
there will be a brief recession, there will be inflation
(note to self: buy CD's at 14) and gold will go to the
'80-'81 equivalent high, about 2200, before it drops.

If Obama wins all bets are off.




Edit to add this tidbit:

LUBBOCK (CBSDFW.COM (http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2012/08/22/texas-judge-preparing-for-civil-war-if-obama-re-elected/)) - A Texas leader is warning of what he calls a ‘civil war’ and possible invasion of United Nations troops if President Barack Obama is re-elected.

Lubbock County Judge Tom Head is convinced that Mr. Obama winning a second term would lead to a revolt by the American people ... He says the money is needed to “beef up” it’s resources in case President Obama wins the November election.

In the event of civil unrest Judge Head said he’s concerned the President would hand over sovereignty of the United States to the U.N. and that the American public would react violently.
...



Oh, brother,  talk is all over the place. 
Maybe after the election things will cool down.

A WSJ Book Review: "Better Off Without 'Em: A Northern Manifesto for Southern Secession" (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444860104577560843330485890.html)

Quote
"Thank you for the copy of Better Off Without 'Em, but I'm afraid it's New York and San Francisco that I think should secede."

- P.J. O'Rourke
                                     Don't forget Illinois.
                                                             


Ace (http://ace.mu.nu/archives/332156.php#332156)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 24, 2012, 11:18:39 AM
(http://ace.mu.nu/Windows-Live-Writer/Overnight-Open-Thread-8-22-2012_EF07/51BA5fHmKEL._BO2,204,203,200_PIsitb-sticker-arrow-click,TopRight,35,-76_AA300_SH20_OU01__thumb.jpg)

Is this supposed to be an offensive flag?   ::hysterical::

(3 out of the 4 logos aint bad!)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on August 24, 2012, 10:51:26 PM

Continuing the Civil War tangent; well, lead is a commodity:

Reuters: (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/24/us-un-texas-duel-idUSBRE87N10V20120824)

    Maybe President Barack Obama should just settle it in a gun duel with a Texas judge, instead of calling on the United Nations to invade the state.

Court house video here (http://weaselzippers.us/2012/08/24/tax-increase-in-texas-to-fight-u-n/)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 24, 2012, 11:16:41 PM
Fits my call for a return to dueling, whole lot BS would go by the boards if people had to back up what they say and do...

 ::rockets::

 ;D
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 14, 2012, 10:52:54 AM
More on the Bernanke-Effect

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-currency-debasement-3-sees-gold-and-silver-surge-2-and-43 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-currency-debasement-3-sees-gold-and-silver-surge-2-and-43)

Take note of the analysis of MachoMan, spot on IMO.

Bill Gross twitter feed -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bill-grossbuy-real-assets-gold-house (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bill-grossbuy-real-assets-gold-house)

Real trumps fake, no time to hold fake.   ;)

Another argument against the Bernanke insanity, basically another confirmation of the Cantillon Effect, or as another poster here calls it "refuedalization".

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-faber-fed-will-destroy-world (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-faber-fed-will-destroy-world)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 14, 2012, 07:20:11 PM

Just got out of a house.  City house it was, thought it would be
long term but between Bennie buying mortgages and mortgage
companies making loans for an "X" at 4 or less %, the
city taxes your atzenburner going and coming.  BuBye.

Suburban or one highway hour from the city; raw land.

 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 15, 2012, 12:03:08 AM

Bennie will destroy the world. Faber, man of understatement.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bofa-sees-fed-assets-surpassing-5-trillion-2015-leading-3350-gold-and-190-crude (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bofa-sees-fed-assets-surpassing-5-trillion-2015-leading-3350-gold-and-190-crude)

Since the Fed is effectively becoming the marginal player in both the MBS and Treasury markets, a very relevant question is how much private market debt is left to sell. Short answer: not much. According to BofA's calculation, the Fed will own more than 33% of the entire mortgage market by 2014.  

That's half the story.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 15, 2012, 09:24:19 AM
"To the extent that the Fed is at least temporarily successful in nurturing a risk-on trade for portfolio managers, the reality is that changing the relative prices of assets does not create demand."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rosenberg-if-us-truly-japan-fed-will-end-owning-entire-market (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/rosenberg-if-us-truly-japan-fed-will-end-owning-entire-market)

There is a lot of upside down action left to come, when this unwinds...or to use your elastic band concept...snaps back...    ::speechless::

Thank God PM's are a haven for retaining real value!

Oh, and lead, can't forget about lead!   ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 17, 2012, 09:11:09 AM
Dollar no longer primary oil currency – China begins to sell oil using Yuan
Kenneth Schortgen Jr.
Wed, 12 Sep 2012 22:00 CDT

© TIME/Facts Global Energy
On Sept. 11, Pastor Lindsey Williams, former minister to the global oil companies during the building of the Alaskan pipeline, announced the most significant event to affect the U.S. dollar since its inception as a currency. For the first time since the 1970?s, when Henry Kissenger forged a trade agreement with the Royal house of Saud to sell oil using only U.S. dollars, China announced its intention to bypass the dollar for global oil customers and began selling the commodity using their own currency.
Comment: Lindsey Williams: "The most significant day in the history of the American dollar, since its inception, happened on Thursday, Sept. 6. On that day, something took place that is going to affect your life, your family, your dinner table more than you can possibly imagine."
"On Thursday, Sept. 6… just a few days ago, China made the official announcement. China said on that day, our banking system is ready, all of our communication systems are ready, all of the transfer systems are ready, and as of that day, Thursday, Sept. 6, any nation in the world that wishes from this point on, to buy, sell, or trade crude oil, can do using the Chinese currency, not the American dollar. – Interview with Natty Bumpo on the Just Measures Radio network, Sept. 11
This announcement by China is one of the most significant sea changes in the global economic and monetary systems, but was barely reported on due to its announcement taking place during the Democratic convention last week. The ramifications of this new action are vast, and could very well be the catalyst that brings down the dollar as the global reserve currency, and change the entire landscape of how the world purchases energy.
Ironically, since Sept. 6, the U.S. dollar has fallen from 81.467 on the index to today’s price of 79.73. While analysts will focus on actions taking place in the Eurozone, and expected easing signals from the Federal Reserve on Thursday regarding the fall of the dollar, it is not coincidence that the dollar began to lose strength on the very day of China’s announcement.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 17, 2012, 11:24:39 AM
China produces roughly a third of what we do, and unless they get other nations to switch to the Yaun the impact will be limited.  But an impact of even marginal proportions may be enough to cause a loss of confidence in the dollar, and the decision to proceed with QE makes Fed/Treas complicit in the destruction of its own currency, we cannot blame others as much as ourselves!

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_pro-energy-oil-production (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_pro-energy-oil-production)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 17, 2012, 11:34:03 AM

China's making a move trying to establish before Romney
is elected for they know the world will be a different place
once we have a president whose foreign policy is not
appeasement.

The renminbi is having its own problems and other nations
won't be storming the cashier to exchange their currency.
Turkey, Iran, and Russia? have been trading oil for gold.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 17, 2012, 12:00:23 PM


The renminbi is having its own problems and other nations
won't be storming the cashier to exchange their currency.
Turkey, Iran, and Russia? have been trading oil for gold.



China has been building gold reserves steadily for decades now.  I believe their end game is to back the Yuan/Renminbi or a new issue with Gold (and possibly other commodities they are also stockpiling)  in a bid for the World reserve.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 17, 2012, 12:12:06 PM

If the majority of folks understood that it would be
a rallying call.  Oh, wait, Romney said he was going
to address the exchange rate fixing with China.

I digress, but they say Romney has not put up a plan, BS.
He's said, increase military to win two front war, confront
China, end regulation so we can drill-drill-drill, and kill
ObamaCare.  What the hell are these idiots talking about?

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 17, 2012, 12:42:02 PM

If the majority of folks understood that it would be
a rallying call.  Oh, wait, Romney said he was going
to address the exchange rate fixing with China.

I digress, but they say Romney has not put up a plan, BS.
He's said, increase military to win two front war, confront
China, end regulation so we can drill-drill-drill, and kill
ObamaCare.  What the hell are these idiots talking about?


Romney also promised to keep the "best parts" of Obamacare - including coverage for pre-existing conditions.  Romney is a politician- that means he is a lying psychopath.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 17, 2012, 06:38:56 PM

If the majority of folks understood that it would be
a rallying call.  Oh, wait, Romney said he was going
to address the exchange rate fixing with China.

I digress, but they say Romney has not put up a plan, BS.
He's said, increase military to win two front war, confront
China, end regulation so we can drill-drill-drill, and kill
ObamaCare.  What the hell are these idiots talking about?


Romney also promised to keep the "best parts" of Obamacare - including coverage for pre-existing conditions.  Romney is a politician- that means he is a lying psychopath.

I'll go that far with a Dem, with a center-right guy perhaps not.  I would certainly be willing to offer up misguided, foolish and ill informed.  If Congress can get more real conservatives in there willing to hold tough and not capitulate to the RINO/AINO crowd a President Romney may find replacements for ObamaCare difficult to realize.  That Romney needs to be schooled on his error in rhetoric and policy is beyond question, and hoping he is merely paying lip service to ameliorate moderates cannot be counted upon, that's what gave us crap like McCain-Fiengold!  He needs reeducation if elected, a more conservative Congress would be helpful in that regard.  Mitt was not my choice, not even my second or third...but this is what we are stuck with for good or ill.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 17, 2012, 08:40:28 PM

If I got a condition and move to another company I must wait a year
before I get on the program, that is a problem I shouldn't have.
If I've elected to not pay for insurance and move to another company
and develop a condition, that should be my problem.  Just thinkin...


(Reuters) (http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/17/cme-uscrude-drop-idINL1E8KHCEN20120917)- CME Group Inc, the parent company of the New York Mercantile Exchange, was not immediately aware of any technical issues that might have triggered a sharp sell-off in U.S. crude oil futures on Monday afternoon, a CME spokesman said.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 17, 2012, 09:35:33 PM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-chinas-rehypothecated-ghost-steel-just-vaporized-and-what-means-world-economy (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-chinas-rehypothecated-ghost-steel-just-vaporized-and-what-means-world-economy)

Quote
From Reuters:    Chinese banks and companies looking to seize steel pledged as collateral by firms that have defaulted on loans are making an uncomfortable discovery: the metal was never in the warehouses in the first place.

This means that in an economy in which the creation of liabilities, and pledging of assets took place at a furious pace in the past 5 years, nobody really knows just what the real state of credit creation truly was. What is 100% certain is that as a result of this revelation, the GDP number of the country, which is and always has been a derivative of credit formation and expansion (and heaven forbid contraction), is massively overrepresenting what it is in reality, and that the Chinese economy has been expanding at a far slower pace if defined not only by the creation of liabilities, but by matched assets. Most importantly, it means that every single Renminbi in circulation is impaired as a country-wide liquidation event would see huge losses by every creditor class. It also would mean, naturally, zero residual value left for the equity.

And just like that the Chinese growth "miracle" goes poof... as does its steel first, and soon all other commodities (coughcoppercough) that served as the basis of "secured" liability creation.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 18, 2012, 06:56:26 AM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-chinas-rehypothecated-ghost-steel-just-vaporized-and-what-means-world-economy (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-chinas-rehypothecated-ghost-steel-just-vaporized-and-what-means-world-economy)

Quote
From Reuters:    Chinese banks and companies looking to seize steel pledged as collateral by firms that have defaulted on loans are making an uncomfortable discovery: the metal was never in the warehouses in the first place.

This means that in an economy in which the creation of liabilities, and pledging of assets took place at a furious pace in the past 5 years, nobody really knows just what the real state of credit creation truly was. What is 100% certain is that as a result of this revelation, the GDP number of the country, which is and always has been a derivative of credit formation and expansion (and heaven forbid contraction), is massively overrepresenting what it is in reality, and that the Chinese economy has been expanding at a far slower pace if defined not only by the creation of liabilities, but by matched assets. Most importantly, it means that every single Renminbi in circulation is impaired as a country-wide liquidation event would see huge losses by every creditor class. It also would mean, naturally, zero residual value left for the equity.

And just like that the Chinese growth "miracle" goes poof... as does its steel first, and soon all other commodities (coughcoppercough) that served as the basis of "secured" liability creation.


Bwuuuhaahaaa!  Couldn't have happened to a better pack of jackals!  I hope they feel a surge of national pride after bullying their smaller regional neighbors over a few scattered islands they neither need or deserve!

Up your Chi-Com butts, comrade!

 ::mooning::

 ::hysterical::

If this helps to unwind all the Pnzai schemes in play, so much the better, perhaps the real "reset" button has been hit.  Commodity and currency wars could really start overheating now.  Yes, we are closer...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 18, 2012, 10:19:30 AM
Possible Naked Shorting of Oil now too (http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/09/17/jims-mailbox-1043/)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 18, 2012, 11:30:03 AM
Damn, I knew this would happen too...cannot Kabuki the economy without dinging the dollar and the only other option left is to Kabuki the dollar by scamming commodities...I shoulda seen it coming.  Just like after QE2 & twist&shiver and all the rest...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 18, 2012, 01:48:59 PM
I think the more sensible part of this posting is towards the end...


•Once banks are deemed to be sufficiently de-leveraged through debt monetization, we believe central banks will begin monetizing assets as a means of explicitly devaluing their currencies. As we have argued, the asset of choice will be the only monetary asset already held by global treasury ministries and central banks and the one with recent precedent collateralizing global currencies – gold.
•The policy-administered currency devaluation we have envisioned would involve a central bank publicly tendering for gold at an increased exchange rate (i.e. price). For example, the Fed would purchase gold with newly created US dollars, which would bring the ratio of USD-denominated credit-to-base money back into line, thereby de-leveraging the system. (This inflation would increase prices and wages relative to outstanding debt balances, greatly reducing the burden of debt repayment.) Global currencies might be re-pegged to the US dollar which would in turn be exchangeable for gold at the higher price, as per the Bretton Woods system. Of course, other central banks might try to make their currencies exchangeable directly into gold at another exchange rate. (We await the arbitrage.)
•Were a USD devaluation and re-pegging to occur as of the end of 2014, following 2 ¼ years of $40 billion monthly MBS debt monetization, we estimate our Shadow Gold Price would approximate $15,000/ounce. (The SGP divides the quantity of USD base money by the quantity of US official gold holdings, as per the Bretton Woods monetary regime.) Over the weekend, Bank of America analysts implied USD base money inflation would increase much more than the Fed announced, to about $5 trillion by the end of 2014. This figure would imply an SGP a bit over $19,000/oz.

We are often asked when we see our scenario playing out. Our answer has always been twofold: first, current conditions and policy responses confirm it is playing out now; second, it is impossible to say when the parabolic “catch-up” phase gets underway because that depends on the interplay between the general public’s understanding of the forces behind consumer goods and service price inflation, the pressures on real returns in most financial assets, and the reflexive political pressures and policy responses to them.

Nevertheless, we suspect last week’s events, in which both the ECB and Fed committed to open-ended base money creation – against a geopolitical environment in which China’s USD reserves are being held astride an increasingly dynamic domestic political regime and in which the petro-dollar regime of the past forty years seems under attack – may be the catalyst that begins to raise public awareness of the link between monetary inflation and price inflation.

Inflation indexes such as the CPI are contemporaneous indicators of price level changes. If our analysis is right, very little capital will be properly positioned when consumer price indexes begin to flare. The relatively tiny current universal allocation towards perceived “inflation hedges” seems to bear this out.

We believe significant real Alpha will be generated by those properly positioned first for significant monetary inflation and monetary regime change, and second for significant price inflation. We believe nominal returns using this sequencing will be substantial (far greater in fact than were available to short positions in sub-prime loans in 2007).


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/perspectives-golds-parabolic-catch-phase (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/perspectives-golds-parabolic-catch-phase)

Anyway you cut it the PTBs are making all the wrong moves, so it cannot be more plain that real assets will soon be a scarce item...then, look out!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 18, 2012, 11:00:34 PM

We're not in a dive and we've not hit stall speed yet.
Romney, with help from a conservative congress could
level this thing off and head us forward toward the
excellence we once were in covenant and commerce.  
                                                                        ::crusader::

But for the moment:
[blockquote]
Deutsche Bank Looking For $2,000/Oz Gold In 1H 2013 (http://)
Tuesday September 18, 2012 11:55 AM

Deutsche Bank sees gold exceeding $2,000 an ounce in the first half of 2013. The bank cites growth in the supply of fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar. “When one has accumulated too much debt, while the right thing to do is pay it back, the easiest thing to do is default and hope your creditor has a short memory,” Deutsche Bank says. “We believe the Western economies in general are biased towards the latter, whether they will admit it or not. We expect a soft default will likely be the preferable course of action; a managed form of currency depreciation through various stages of quantitative easing or successive bailouts by central banks of the banking system. This ‘easy’ scenario is good for gold, in our view.


Longer Term Question for Gold – Thomas Barnet (http://www.kitco.com/KitcoNewsVideo/index.html?v=12-09-10thomasbarnett_1)   Obviously he has no SHTHF thoughts; however, there are some interesting observations. [about 3:30] "middle class is the same the world over, it has unlimited demands on mobility and electricity"   [about 4:30]  "betting long and bullish on arible land".   His eyes though, seem to be giving him trouble and it's not on the ceiling. ::)[/blockquote]


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 19, 2012, 01:27:37 AM

This makes me feel warm all over:

Tungsten-Filled 10 Oz Gold Bar Found In The Middle Of Manhattan's Jewelry District (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 19, 2012, 07:17:58 AM

This makes me feel warm all over:

Tungsten-Filled 10 Oz Gold Bar Found In The Middle Of Manhattan's Jewelry District (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district)


Yeah, these stories crop up from time to time, it is only the poor economic times we are in (and times when PMs are rising) that they get more attention.  I am having a hard time believing this scam was not perpetrated at the source, but the full chain of custody has to be thoroughly investigated to know for sure.

Anyway, not like this is any different than what the Fed/Treas is doing with currency, same scam, just easier to do with paper than metal.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 19, 2012, 09:24:00 AM

This makes me feel warm all over:

Tungsten-Filled 10 Oz Gold Bar Found In The Middle Of Manhattan's Jewelry District (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district)


Yeah, these stories crop up from time to time, it is only the poor economic times we are in (and times when PMs are rising) that they get more attention.  I am having a hard time believing this scam was not perpetrated at the source, but the full chain of custody has to be thoroughly investigated to know for sure.

Anyway, not like this is any different than what the Fed/Treas is doing with currency, same scam, just easier to do with paper than metal.

I am with CO. Warm and Fuzzy.  This was a reputable dealer. Hollow out a bar and fill it, and then reseal it?  I doubt it. A very professional organization did it? Hell yeah- I would suspect that Pamp Suisse manufactured these. Perhaps even at Government request.  Now I wonder if I should drill into my 1oz bars. I guess they are too small to be worth faking? Of course at $1700/oz,  isn't that worth it?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 19, 2012, 11:24:13 AM

This makes me feel warm all over:

Tungsten-Filled 10 Oz Gold Bar Found In The Middle Of Manhattan's Jewelry District (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district)


Yeah, these stories crop up from time to time, it is only the poor economic times we are in (and times when PMs are rising) that they get more attention.  I am having a hard time believing this scam was not perpetrated at the source, but the full chain of custody has to be thoroughly investigated to know for sure.

Anyway, not like this is any different than what the Fed/Treas is doing with currency, same scam, just easier to do with paper than metal.

I am with CO. Warm and Fuzzy.  This was a reputable dealer. Hollow out a bar and fill it, and then reseal it?  I doubt it. A very professional organization did it? Hell yeah- I would suspect that Pamp Suisse manufactured these. Perhaps even at Government request.  Now I wonder if I should drill into my 1oz bars. I guess they are too small to be worth faking? Of course at $1700/oz,  isn't that worth it?


The smaller bars/coins are probably more difficult to do and I think these guys doing this are into grabbing more volume up front.  Really good theives tend to think bigger first and work down, only a small time hood thinks small from the get-go.  Does make you wonder about what is good and who can be trusted.  And from that standpoint big gubmint conspiracies make more sense...as only an insider could really see a need to back up their bogus paper with something more than ink.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 19, 2012, 11:50:55 PM


"Money" - Liza Minnelli, Joel Grey (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkRIbUT6u7Q#ws)


Deutsche Bank: Gold Is Money (http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-09-19/deutsche-bank-gold-money)


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 20, 2012, 06:55:30 AM
Things are looking golden...but not for fiat...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 20, 2012, 10:25:03 PM
Ann Barnhardt on the Tungsten filled "gold"

Quote
So not only is gold bullion "rehypothecated" many, many times over in ETFs and COMEX contracts, but the stuff that is being rehypothecated is actually $1.50 per ounce Tungsten. Right here in the good 'ol US of A.

In case you are curious, the work-around on this is simple. Don't buy bullion. Buy coins. Old coins. Minted back when men weren't all moral degenerates and governments could actually be trusted. Bullion is a pain in the keister anyway. Coins are practical, and far, far more difficult to debase than bullion.

Or just buy farmground.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on September 20, 2012, 11:13:56 PM

"Or just by farmground" 
Yeah, the vid in this http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,913.msg77362.html#msg77362 post addressed that.  I stepped on it with that tungsten post.

I'm not sure that buying old coins, that usually come with a
numismatic value, is a better buy than currently minted.
It appears that the mint is cranking out new Eagles as fast as it can.
No more Pandas or Mapleleaf's though.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 21, 2012, 07:48:15 AM

"Or just by farmground"  
Yeah, the vid in this http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,913.msg77362.html#msg77362 post addressed that.  I stepped on it with that tungsten post.

I'm not sure that buying old coins, that usually come with a
numismatic value, is a better buy than currently minted.
It appears that the mint is cranking out new Eagles as fast as it can.
No more Pandas or Mapleleaf's though.



Got that right.

I think if you load up on silver bullion (1oz) that is still OK, I don't think the grifters have gone low-value/high-volume on their scams, and junk silver too.  I think those are the safer and more economical option right now.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on September 21, 2012, 08:47:17 AM
As long as you can get them near bullion value, from a reputable source, and slabbed by a major authenticator (PCGS, NGC, ANACS)

And never from a Chinese seller on Ebay!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 24, 2012, 07:41:46 AM
As long as you can get them near bullion value, from a reputable source, and slabbed by a major authenticator (PCGS, NGC, ANACS)

And never from a Chinese seller on Ebay!

Or a freaking Rooskie!

More debased gold -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-23/gold-counterfeiting-goes-viral-10-tungsten-filled-gold-bars-are-discovered-manhattan (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-23/gold-counterfeiting-goes-viral-10-tungsten-filled-gold-bars-are-discovered-manhattan)

There are a number of things going on here that do not pass the smell test - discrepancies in the photos etc, and goingback to the original story an obvious question - wtf drills out their 10oz gold bar on a suspicion?

Anyway, no doubt the hawkers of these devices will experience an up-tick in sales -

http://www.goldcoinbalance.com/ (http://www.goldcoinbalance.com/)

But seriously, if this is a coordinated effort by one or more producers to cornhole customers, I find it difficult to beleive they've bothered to corrupt 1oz & lower bullion or coins?  They'd be shut down, jailed and never seen again.

I am by no means a conspiracy nut, but I am starting to sense this is more an effort to spread panic in the gold market in an effort to cap rising prices due to all the currency debasement and wonton other Neo-Keynesian efforts going on globally.  The question then becomes "Who stand to benefit?" and if the answer is the central banks then we should closely monitor gold supplies and who is getting what!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 24, 2012, 09:26:15 AM

But seriously, if this is a coordinated effort by one or more producers to cornhole customers, I find it difficult to beleive they've bothered to corrupt 1oz & lower bullion or coins?  They'd be shut down, jailed and never seen again.


Not if the purpose was to shunt that gold to a central govt - the govt already allows short sale of gold and silver with no consequence. Why should they not allow those sellers to back up their contracts with counterfeit bars?  That way they get the added benefit of adding Fear, Uncertainty and doubt to the market ( lowering prices)  while allowing their stooges to keep prices low with shorts while fulfilling the contract that actually take delivery.  IN the meantime any real gold is provided to the host govt, probably at a premium over spot- a premium of course paid with tax payer money and borrowed fiat.

All complete conjecture, and I have no evidence. Merely pointing out that if a conspiracy does exist, it mostly likely includes the central banks. When a single Oounce of gold commands $1700-1800, yes, it is absolutely worth making coins with $2 of tungsten in them.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 24, 2012, 11:33:58 AM

But seriously, if this is a coordinated effort by one or more producers to cornhole customers, I find it difficult to believe they've bothered to corrupt 1oz & lower bullion or coins?  They'd be shut down, jailed and never seen again.


Not if the purpose was to shunt that gold to a central govt - the govt already allows short sale of gold and silver with no consequence. Why should they not allow those sellers to back up their contracts with counterfeit bars?  That way they get the added benefit of adding Fear, Uncertainty and doubt to the market ( lowering prices)  while allowing their stooges to keep prices low with shorts while fulfilling the contract that actually take delivery.  IN the meantime any real gold is provided to the host govt, probably at a premium over spot- a premium of course paid with tax payer money and borrowed fiat.

All complete conjecture, and I have no evidence. Merely pointing out that if a conspiracy does exist, it mostly likely includes the central banks. When a single Oounce of gold commands $1700-1800, yes, it is absolutely worth making coins with $2 of tungsten in them.

I guess I was looking at it from a purely retail and traditional business point of view.  If in fact the scenario is as you outline then the everybody has been cornholed and every government and every institution on the planet is in dire need of violent overthrow.  Two points argue against and grand conspiracy - 1) That many people cannot keep a secret that long (usually somebody blurts a drunken confession to a hooker, somebody has a severe attack of conscious, anonymous leak, etc) and perhaps more importantly 2) it is self-defeating to inject too much concern into holders...if everybody inspects their stuff and the debasement is that widespread...good luck trying to contain all the riots, the markets will implode, panics, runs...BITS!  (Not that I have a problem with that reaction...)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 24, 2012, 12:01:01 PM
I guess I was looking at it from a purely retail and traditional business point of view.  If in fact the scenario is as you outline then the everybody has been cornholed and every government and every institution on the planet is in dire need of violent overthrow.  Two points argue against and grand conspiracy - 1) That many people cannot keep a secret that long (usually somebody blurts a drunken confession to a hooker, somebody has a severe attack of conscious, anonymous leak, etc) and perhaps more importantly 2) it is self-defeating to inject too much concern into holders...if everybody inspects their stuff and the debasement is that widespread...good luck trying to contain all the riots, the markets will implode, panics, runs...BITS!  (Not that I have a problem with that reaction...)

The largest bit of evidence is those gold bars. Those were not hollowed out by a 3rd party. They were manufactured that way. Someone could be buying legit PAMP Suisse bars, melting them down and then manufacturing and counterfeiting the stamp and SN on the bar,  but even if that were true, I would suspect the New York Dealers buy directly from PAMP and there is no middle man. If there is a middle man, it should be easy to detect the source, and clamp them down, and its in the best interest of all gold dealers to do so.  I will be very surprised if there is more than one middle man involved.  When you ship gold in large quantities, you do it through as few parties as possible for exactly this sort of situation.  I personally think these bars were manufactured by PAMP themselves. Maybe they were menat to go to Ft KNOX or some other govt treasury as a fake, and got mis-shipped.. or perhaps they were sold deliberately in their own form of paper shorts - call it tungsten shorting.

Some guy drilled into his gold bar - perhaps because he had run into a person of conscience or the hooker who took the confession. Or perhaps its a separate plan to discredit gold, but something in the way that the PAMP Suisse guy reacted in the interview makes me suspect otherwise. He seemed to have little concern that someone was counterfeiting his product, apparently with legit SNs, and seemed to have no plan to counter what should be considered a huge threat to the trust they have built with consumers.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 24, 2012, 12:06:38 PM
I guess the only questions remaining are what will they find out and will whatever it is that gets reported to us be real or bullsh*t?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 02, 2012, 12:55:19 AM

Is it the Corzine  or the Obama effect?


PFG Forex and Phyzz Metals Accounts Raped 1
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - October 1, AD 2012 8:46 PM MST
Good grief, this is awful. But not surprising. And look who is doing the raping . . . JP Morgan with an assist by RBS.

Just to be clear, what this means is that people who had CASH FOREX (not FOREX futures, but people who were trading the actual currencies themselves) and people who were trading PHYSICAL precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium) through PFG are having 100% of their accounts permanently confiscated. Imagine that. JP Morgan confiscating bullion. I'm shocked. Knock me over with a feather. The next thing you're going to tell me is that the Rule of Law no longer exists and that the Republic is dead - overthrown in a neo-Stalinist putsch. ...

Never a dull moment as waves from rising water erodes our foundations from the bottom and steals our money from the top.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 02, 2012, 07:11:32 AM
Wait...

I thought gold wasn't money...only fiat currency is money...?

These Neo-Keynesian's really need to come with a warning label, eh?

Hmmm...not giving me warm fuzzy feelings over what may come next...

I sense the time may be nigh to divest and run!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Predator Don on October 02, 2012, 07:57:38 AM
Wait...

I thought gold wasn't money...only fiat currency is money...?

These Neo-Keynesian's really need to come with a warning label, eh?

Hmmm...not giving me warm fuzzy feelings over what may come next...

I sense the time may be nigh to divest and run!


Still in the market...but I'm watching it closely.....gotta be ready to run.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 03, 2012, 04:00:28 PM

Gold Over Bacon; Jay Taylor (http://www.kitco.com/KitcoNewsVideo/index.html?v=12-10-03jaytaylor_1)
That's racist~!   ::)

Danieala Cambone and Jay Taylor discuss gold paper v gold metal and
folks not yet realizing gold is money.  And, (re: mining cos) if you don't understand mining cos or don't have the time to do their homework;
a mutual fund.           [Vanguard]

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 03, 2012, 06:24:56 PM
The "com" is missing from your link CO.

Gold futures -

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=d1 (http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=d1)

Gold stocks, two big boys -

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=FCX (http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=FCX)

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ABX (http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ABX)

The two players he mentioned -

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=EMXX (http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=EMXX)

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SAND (http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SAND)

Sandstorm has been going stratospheric.

I am 100% into commodities driven investments - gold stocks, gold mutual funds (my whole 401k), gold & silver ETFs, and oil (XOM).  Plus my own physical holdings that were umm lost in a boating accident.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 03, 2012, 07:20:38 PM

Thanks, it's fixed.

A small reprise: 
                          Gold Over Bacon; Jay Taylor (http://www.kitco.com/KitcoNewsVideo/index.html?v=12-10-03jaytaylor_1)
                     That's racist~!   ::)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on October 03, 2012, 07:32:32 PM

I'm sucha fuddy duddy and I so belive that 79/80 chart
that I'm looking at this VGENX (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0051&FundIntExt=INT) after "peak" exit.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 03, 2012, 07:40:54 PM
It's kinda dicey now, oil related stocks are near previous highs, last time I hung on too long and missed cashing out at the top, but I didn't mind cause I knew under the disasterous Obongo Regime it would climb back (plus XOM pays good dividends), this time though if Romney gets in we could see more intelligent energy policies and less ctrl-p out of the Fed so a return to the mid-range is likely in store, barring a blow up in the Middle East, so I will be bailing pretty soon.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on December 02, 2012, 08:54:29 PM

LNG, too much fracking and not enough regulation?  Royal Dutch Shell has the answer (http://) almost two hundred miles offshore.

(http://www.memorieshop.com/Liquid-Natural-Gas/Prelude.jpg)


And here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-02/fling-aint-what-it-used-be).
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 02, 2012, 09:53:23 PM
Heh, 25 years at sea is a long time!

But I like the aggressive innovation.  No doubt governments the world over are eager to come up with new and interesting ways to tax and regulate it into obsolescence...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on December 03, 2012, 12:29:01 AM

RDS must have a wealth of archived history, as we proceed into this upside down world they may be one of the better equipped companies to deal with the new world order.  They may even help to put it in its place.

 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 03, 2012, 07:30:54 AM
Perhaps the best way to deal with the NWO types is to place them all on a vessel of this type and light a match.  Sacrifices have to be made.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on December 03, 2012, 07:32:16 AM
Yup.  And now we can add Bob Costas to the passenger list.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 04, 2012, 11:58:30 AM
And we can add Michael Wilbon to the list!

PS - OK, who really did have the boating accident?!

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/police-baffled-11-5m-in-gold-bars-burgled-in-bold-boat-heist/ (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/police-baffled-11-5m-in-gold-bars-burgled-in-bold-boat-heist/)

Nice haul.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on December 18, 2012, 04:57:36 PM

Another Dutch island failure.  I like the boat.

***

No one knows how it's going to come down but we all know it will be dramatically different; ten percent in is a minimum.         

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-18/guest-post-goons-versus-gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-18/guest-post-goons-versus-gold)

[QB Asset Management] QB’s team goes on to calculate a ‘shadow gold price’ using the Bretton Woods monetary calculation for valuing the fixed exchange rate linking gold to the US dollar: Base Money divided by US official gold holdings… indicating a shadow gold price of over $10,000 today.

"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
                                                                         _ William Arthur Ward


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on December 18, 2012, 05:07:39 PM

"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
                                                                         _ William Arthur Ward


SO which are you now Charles?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on December 18, 2012, 05:40:12 PM

I can't figure out the wind in order to correctly adjust my sails and I'm not an optimist therefor I must be a pessimist.  But that doesn't stop me from reassessing the winds and readjusting the lines.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 19, 2012, 07:26:41 AM

I can't figure out the wind in order to correctly adjust my sails and I'm not an optimist therefor I must be a pessimist.  But that doesn't stop me from reassessing the winds and readjusting the lines.



Sounds like a struggling realist!  Aye, there's a lot of those about!   ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 20, 2012, 07:15:59 AM
Usually the morning beatdown of gold happens around 8:30, but the recent and more significant beatings have been taking place earlier and now we know at least one culprit - MS and their liquidations!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-19/morgan-stanley-redeems-paulson-investments-explanation-recent-gold-liquidation (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-19/morgan-stanley-redeems-paulson-investments-explanation-recent-gold-liquidation)

It's almost nice to see a real reason for the plunge instead of the usual faceless bots going about their manipulative lives on behalf of their HFT masters...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 20, 2012, 07:22:18 AM
Oh, and right about the time I get an itching to hoard some more silver, alongs comes a GoldCore report that silver will jump 29% in 2013.  It is beat down to 31.13 this Am so that prediction has it hitting just over $40, which seems a modest increase.  It seems it should be more, but given the manipulations PMs are subject to in both the commodity markets and ETFs, it is probably a reasonable expectation.  Besides, the pullback looks attractive for another round of purchasing, so Hi Ho Silver!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-20/silver-gain-29-2013-analysts-traders-and-investors (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-20/silver-gain-29-2013-analysts-traders-and-investors)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 10, 2013, 07:40:32 PM

Just when you think the market couldn't be more rigged:

   
Quote
  To "The Precious Metal Purchasing Act"  (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-10/executive-order-6102-precious-metal-purchasing-act-santellis-take) From Executive Order 6102 - Santelli's Take

"First they want gun registration and now precious metal registration?"

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 11, 2013, 07:33:37 AM
Fricken IL is the Mos Esiley of planet Earth!  Scum and villany run the place...fricken low-life gutter-trash demonrats!

 ::mooning::

 ::rockets::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 15, 2013, 07:18:13 AM
It has begun.

Bundesbank repatriating gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-14/it-begins-bundesbank-commence-repatriating-gold-new-york-fed)

When one central bank feels the need to bring some of their physical holding home, one cannot escape the fact that a level of trust has diminished, I do not see it as an outright panic as they are hedging by leaving a substantial portion behind, but when the big boys get nervous about physical holdings we all ought to take notice that a fundamental shift in outlook has just ocurred.

 ;)

Acquire...boating accident...repeat.

Oh, and golding holdings in perspective (following the links to blow them up makes it easier to see) and derivatives in perspective...the world of reality vs the world of fantasy -

Gold vs Derivatives (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-14/all-gold-world-definitive-infographic)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 15, 2013, 01:51:24 PM

Heh, all the gold in the world doesn't stack up to Liberty's waist.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 15, 2013, 09:06:42 PM
Nothing hiding under the skirt either...I looked.   ;D
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 17, 2013, 09:29:04 AM
I am somewhat surprised the panic hasn't set off yet...cannot repatriate some of the gold...for seven years?...Gosh, why oh why could that be?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-16/it-will-take-fed-seven-years-deliver-300-tons-german-gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-16/it-will-take-fed-seven-years-deliver-300-tons-german-gold)

PTBs must be working OT pooh-poohing any foolish concerns in the ability of the geniuses running our Central Banks and the government lackies they sold their souls to...

Oh, and gold's 8:30am buying window closed already...in case you missed it...

What a world!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on January 17, 2013, 10:08:03 AM
We're essentially freezing the assets of our biggest ally?

That will go over well.  Meanwhile...  ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 17, 2013, 10:11:26 AM

So, Dr. Bund says we have seven more good years.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on January 17, 2013, 10:31:23 AM

So, Dr. Bund says we have seven more good years.


Or Dr. Bund has decided to write off the loss. If they are using that gold to suppress gold prices, and thereby sustain the dollar, they may simply not have access to it, and have to buy it from the market .. and China is also buying from the market - and taking possession. Its entirely possible the paper gold isn't backed by anything anymore and the physical market is getting very tight.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 17, 2013, 11:16:41 AM

So, Dr. Bund says we have seven more good years.


Or Dr. Bund has decided to write off the loss. If they are using that gold to suppress gold prices, and thereby sustain the dollar, they may simply not have access to it, and have to buy it from the market .. and China is also buying from the market - and taking possession. Its entirely possible the paper gold isn't backed by anything anymore and the physical market is getting very tight.

How many times have those holdings been leveraged?  It's like overbooking flights x's 1,000,000,000,000,000,000!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 18, 2013, 06:50:57 AM
Heh, these are kinda sexy, know what I mean?

http://silverbulletbullion.com/ (http://silverbulletbullion.com/)

 ;D
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 18, 2013, 11:09:46 AM

Valentine's day, birthday, Independence day, Veteran's day, Memorial day, Thanksgiving, Christmas. Hey, any day.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: benb61 on January 18, 2013, 12:50:04 PM
Heh, these are kinda sexy, know what I mean?

http://silverbulletbullion.com/ (http://silverbulletbullion.com/)

 ;D

Those rock, I want!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 19, 2013, 11:00:23 AM
Heh, these are kinda sexy, know what I mean?

http://silverbulletbullion.com/ (http://silverbulletbullion.com/)

 ;D

Those rock, I want!

Fun collector items for the whole family and could make great barter items! 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: benb61 on January 19, 2013, 11:01:09 PM
Heh, these are kinda sexy, know what I mean?

http://silverbulletbullion.com/ (http://silverbulletbullion.com/)

 ;D

Those rock, I want!

Fun collector items for the whole family and could make great barter items! 

And I've been thinking that bullets would be great trading fodder.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 25, 2013, 07:07:06 AM
Interesting info on Pt & Pd via ZeroHedge -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-24/visualizing-platinum-palladiums-place-world (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-24/visualizing-platinum-palladiums-place-world)

And on that NE MN operation -

http://www.duluthmetals.com/s/Home.asp (http://www.duluthmetals.com/s/Home.asp)

Thing with investing though, Pd is more affordable than Pt (which is a bit higher than Au), but I like Pt better as an investment play than Pd.

http://www.kitco.com/market/ (http://www.kitco.com/market/)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on January 29, 2013, 09:45:48 PM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-29/silver-eagle-sales-surge-all-time-record-january (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-29/silver-eagle-sales-surge-all-time-record-january)

A massive 7.4 million Silver Eagles were purchased from the U.S. Mint in January,

 http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/01/20130129_silver.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/01/20130129_silver.jpg)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 30, 2013, 08:51:55 AM
Hi Ho Silver, away!   ;D

Somebody had to say it!

Giddyup!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 20, 2013, 07:15:38 AM
I loaded up on more, now this AM the beatdown appears to have continued overnight, the buying window is still open!

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=m5)

http://www.apmex.com/ (http://www.apmex.com/)

PS-Don't forget to schedule those boating trips!   ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on February 20, 2013, 09:38:23 PM

You're going to be in high cotton, brother.

More evidence of price fixing and analysis.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/strange-case-golds-regular-morning-mugging (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/strange-case-golds-regular-morning-mugging)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 21, 2013, 07:42:11 AM

You're going to be in high cotton, brother.

More evidence of price fixing and analysis.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/strange-case-golds-regular-morning-mugging (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/strange-case-golds-regular-morning-mugging)


Yeah, read that.  Had this one (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/stocks-drop-most-2013-gold-crucified-death-cross) too.

I am buying left and right.  There could be another beatdown today, I am monitoring, ready to jump in with another order.

These clowns are just begging me to buy!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 22, 2013, 10:17:52 AM
Buying window is still open.

I gotta check my account and see if I have any fiat left. . .
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 26, 2013, 07:03:31 AM
Lucky first cousin hits the inheritance jackpot - 145lbs of gold!

http://www.idahostatesman.com/2013/02/26/2467234/recluses-gold-fortune-to-be-auctioned.html (http://www.idahostatesman.com/2013/02/26/2467234/recluses-gold-fortune-to-be-auctioned.html)

"expected to net about $3 million"

 ::saywhat::

The nuismatic value on much of this should exceed the gold value (which by itself is a not inconsiderable $3,436,776 as of this morning), so the taxman, auction house and other leeches must be sucking a lot off!

Still, the substitute teacher is going to make hope, hopefully they aren't a dumbass and blow it all on foolish crap.

Just think of all the prepping you could do with $3 million!

 ::thinking::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 27, 2013, 07:35:46 AM
Followed a link from ZH to here, interesting breakdown of gold manipulation.  Still reviewing the math, but basically what it reinforces in me is "buy & stack"!

Follow link at conclusion to Part II.

http://sibileau.com/martin/2013/02/21/gold-manipulation-the-logical-outcome-of-mainstream-economics/ (http://sibileau.com/martin/2013/02/21/gold-manipulation-the-logical-outcome-of-mainstream-economics/)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 02, 2013, 09:54:56 PM
This (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-02/why-jpmorgans-gold-vault-largest-world-located-next-new-york-fed) post is an interesting read.  Here's a snippet:

That's right, ladies and gentlemen, as a result of our cursory examination, we have learned that the world's largest private, and commercial, gold vault, that belonging once upon a time to Chase Manhattan, and now to JPMorgan Chase, is located, right across the street, and at the same level underground, resting just on top of the Manhattan bedrock, as the vault belonging to the New York Federal Reserve, which according to folklore is the official location of the biggest collection of sovereign, public gold in the world.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 03, 2013, 10:18:14 AM
Mere coincidence.

 ::foilhathelicopter::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 08, 2013, 07:05:51 AM
Silver to jump 20% this year?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-08/silver-investment-demand-surges-30-silver-etf-holdings-robust (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-08/silver-investment-demand-surges-30-silver-etf-holdings-robust)

Wouldn't take much to get that modest of a bump, long term it can only go way up.  Want to take advantage of the recent dip, but I got a lot on my plate, maybe I'll nibble a bit more.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 08, 2013, 08:23:44 AM

With all the bubbles and the money printing
it's difficult to make a case that PM's and
probably some other commodities will not
appreciate along with inflation. With that in
mind silver at $28.81/oz is very attractive.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 08, 2013, 11:11:43 AM
It does look good.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 10, 2013, 01:46:13 PM

Jimmy Rogers (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-09/jim-rogers-were-wiping-out-savings-class-globally-terrible-consequence):

We were talking before about the risk-free or worry-free investment. Even gold: the Indian politicians are talking about coming down hard on gold, and India is the largest buyer of gold in the world. If Indian politicians do something -- whether it’s foolish or not is irrelevant -- if they do something, gold could go down a lot.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 10, 2013, 02:55:57 PM
Another buying opportunity brewing then.  Awesome.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 10, 2013, 03:13:17 PM

I'm shopping land, again.  I either have a knack or have been lucky too many times.  Land is a double commodity in that you can let sit and appreciate or you can farm it and sell the crop as it appreciates.  Course, you can also rent it or just enjoy it personally as it appreciates.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 10, 2013, 03:17:37 PM
Thing with land though...if things go sideways hard enough, kinda big to defend, it's not like it's not visible.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 10, 2013, 03:40:46 PM

They can't put it in sack and run off with it.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 10, 2013, 04:16:45 PM
True that.  And proper use of buffer space can be well utilized.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 22, 2013, 12:09:53 AM

Link (http://www.texastribune.org/2013/03/21/perry-some-lawmakers-want-states-gold-back-texas/)

[blockquote]Bringing Texas' gold
[a billion here and billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money]
home has gained more traction this legislative session because of Perry’s vocal support for it. On conservative radio host Glenn Beck’s show on Tuesday, the governor said Texas was “in the process” — the legislative process, he later clarified — of “bringing gold that belongs to the state of Texas back into the state.” He argued that the state was at least as capable as the Federal Reserve of safeguarding Texas’ “physical gold.” Is this some kind of subtextual treat?

“If we own it,” Perry said, “I will suggest to you that that’s not someone else’s determination whether we can take possession of it back or not.” [/blockquote]

There he go gettin' snippy again. Brahk ain't gonna' like it.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 22, 2013, 06:38:39 AM
Screw Brahk, the guardians at Fed/Treas gonna have some 'splainin' to do!

 ::whoohoo::   ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 27, 2013, 07:48:04 AM
Hmmm....

This will be interesting - Russia & South Africa to create OPEC-like Platinum trading bloc.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-27/russia-and-south-africa-create-opec-%E2%80%98platinum-cartel%E2%80%99 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-27/russia-and-south-africa-create-opec-%E2%80%98platinum-cartel%E2%80%99)

What could go wrong?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 27, 2013, 10:08:08 AM

Seventy percent is mined in Africa.  Forty percent goes to catalytic converters, hmmm. Just say bye, EPA.


Here is a little historical reference along with two articles about those gold miners.

                        GDX                  HUI         AU

08/15/2011       61.26            521.89          1765.00   

08/29/2011       64.91             618.03         1794.90

09/05/2011       65.80            628.34          1907.60   

09/08/2011                                                1862.40

http://www.ibtimes.com/will-we-see-consolidation-gold-mining-industry-1108529 (http://www.ibtimes.com/will-we-see-consolidation-gold-mining-industry-1108529)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/gold-giants-shrink-to-fit-as-paulson-pushes-breakup-commodities.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/gold-giants-shrink-to-fit-as-paulson-pushes-breakup-commodities.html)
[blockquote] ...
The first phase should begin soon ...
The second phase won’t begin until well after we see gold stocks (i.e GDX,,,HUI) break to new all-time highs and confirm the breakout.
...latter phase (perhaps 2015-2016), ...[/blockquote]

If it was only this easy.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 27, 2013, 11:28:32 AM
The PTBs will continue the beatings until moral improves.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 28, 2013, 07:16:27 AM
More "do as they do not as they say" proof -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-27/santelli-end-paper-golds-reign (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-27/santelli-end-paper-golds-reign)

Those charts say it all!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 04, 2013, 09:46:00 AM

Well, Rick was right about that; however, my expectation was that it would increase the price of the metal.

(Kitco News) - (http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20130404JW_am.html)Gold prices... hit a 10-month low overnight.

The gold market continues to feel the pressure from the exodus of investors from exchange trade funds (ETFs). Reports overnight said the first quarter of 2013 showed a significant outflow of investor monies from gold-related ETFs. However, there are also reports that demand for physical gold has picked up this week as bargain hunters step in to buy amid the big drop in gold prices.

Queasy peasy.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 04, 2013, 11:27:45 AM
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, just load up!  This is one of the signs that a kabuki is nearing an end, if enough leave the risky paper for the real deal, it means less manipulation of the markets by the traders, well, maybe not less per se but certainly makes their job less invisible.

This is a good thing.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 10, 2013, 07:44:32 AM
Man, PMs are a good buy right now, especially silver.

On the exploitation front, business as usual...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/goldman-buying-gold-selling-treasurys-muppets-whom-it-advises-do-opposite (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/goldman-buying-gold-selling-treasurys-muppets-whom-it-advises-do-opposite)

Hmmm...    ::thinking::

Paper or PMs?  Decisions, decisions!

 ::saywhat::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 12, 2013, 11:35:10 AM
Man, PMs are a good buy right now, especially silver.

On the exploitation front, business as usual...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/goldman-buying-gold-selling-treasurys-muppets-whom-it-advises-do-opposite (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/goldman-buying-gold-selling-treasurys-muppets-whom-it-advises-do-opposite)

Hmmm...    ::thinking::

Paper or PMs?  Decisions, decisions!

 ::saywhat::

Oh My.. Junk Silver is trading with a Premium of $3.80/oz (http://www.apmex.com/Category/17/90_Silver_Generic_Bags.aspx) at APMEX.  Last time I did the cacluation was months ago - it was "high" - almost $0.90

Gold isn't too bad - premium is only up about $5 over what I paid last time ( before the boating accident) 

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 12, 2013, 01:04:17 PM
Wow, that is up, especially when you see the pullback in market price.  Silver is still a solid value right now.  Once the paper chase ends the PTBs will find it a bit more problematic to manipulate markets.  Then again they can revisit the FDR plan and confiscate everything.  Boats still have a purpose.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 14, 2013, 03:51:24 PM

Today's Low Gold & Silver Prices Are Not Realistic (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-14/mike-maloney-todays-low-gold-silver-prices-are-not-realistic)

Snippet:
Gold has been chopping sideways for 19 months now, and it has worn people out. But basically gold is up. It is not up from 19 months ago when it was nearing $2,000, but it sure is up over the last decade. So I do not let the short-term noise affect me now that I know that we have not reached the point where the price of gold equals the points on the Dow. Right now gold’s value is one-ninth of the Dow, and so I know that it needs to rise by a factor of 18 against stocks before I need to get worried and start watching gold.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 14, 2013, 09:59:58 PM

... everything is red (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-14/gold-asian-liquidation-mode) - JGBs down, Japanese stocks down, US Stocks down, US Treasuries down, Gold and Silver down, Copper down, Oil down, Rubber futures limit down
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 15, 2013, 07:22:52 AM
Why CO, you little mind reader, I just gangered these articles.

Another one popped up later - Gold rout most oversold in 14 years (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/all-eyes-gold-rout-most-oversold-14-years)

"End result, whether due to a re-collapsing global economy, margin calls, fears forced Cyprus gold selling will be imposed on all other insolvent European countries, coordinated central bank slams, hedge fund positioning, long unwinds, liquidations, fears about future demand, or whatever the usual selling suspects are, is that gold tumbles an unprecedented 7.8% on 230,000 contracts in one day, and well over 10% in two days, pushing the yellow metal 14 day RSI band to 18, meaning it is now most oversold since 1999. In brief, it is an all out panic, with Goldman still telling clients to sell, i.e., buying every shiny ounce all the way down (not to mention India, where accordingto UBS Friday demand was double the average)."

The hard part is telling where the bottom is, the old joke being you'll know it when you hit it, but we are in the period where the last great buying opportunities might be in play, with the kabuki running out of steam and places to hide and just about every CB in the same boat bailing water into their neighbors lap...and the final battles of the currency wars has yet to commence.  Wait, anybody know if China is hoarding like the Ming Dynasty again?!  Their growth just hit the brakes...could be the global slowdown finally reaching the net exporters, so sad too bad, now they have a billion or so people to keep happy, that'll cut into their PM purchases, unless they want to Bernankie the Yuan to do it.  I'd bet on a double-play, Chi-Com's are as greedy as they are predictable.

Just checked APMEX, if you order at least 20 ounces you can get for 14.27% premium, might seem steep but at these prices you can stack more too.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 15, 2013, 07:54:19 AM
The MFM catching the gold action now -

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2013/04/gold-investors-exit-amid-price-collapse/ (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2013/04/gold-investors-exit-amid-price-collapse/)

Snort meter alert activated! 

"The reasons for the plunge are linked to the recent rise in the stock market, the slow, steady improvement of the US economy and the recent strength of the dollar."

 ::hysterical::  Yeah, paper kicks ass!   ::laughonfloor::  Puppetmasters say "Dance, bitches!  Buy me up!"   ::rolllaughing::

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100640665 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100640665)

"Panic"! 

One of the few who should panic is Cyprus, at these prices 75% of their gold will not suffice, the ECB will need it all now.

I love the smell of panic in the morning!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 15, 2013, 10:06:24 AM

One of the few who should panic is Cyprus, at these prices 75% of their gold will not suffice, the ECB will need it all now.

I love the smell of panic in the morning!

Done on purpose - for that reason.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 16, 2013, 12:06:26 PM
APMEX is running low on silver!

I bought some more, now scheduling my boat trip.

https://www.apmex.com/Category/520/Silver_Rounds_Secondary_Market__New.aspx (https://www.apmex.com/Category/520/Silver_Rounds_Secondary_Market__New.aspx)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 16, 2013, 12:13:23 PM
Apmex Junk silver is now commanding a premium of $6.50/oz.
Other premiums seem to be a little higher than normal, but not ridiculously so.  In 2008 the premium was $0.17.

My only theory as to WHY this is happening is that old US dimes, Nickels and Quarters are in short supply. No one is minting more of them , and there is clearly more demand for them than there ever has been.  The other premiums aren't advancing as quickly because they can be made "new" from current gold and silver production. Old US currency is  easily recognizable as silver and unlikely to be  counterfeits- making it ideal prepping bullion.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: benb61 on April 16, 2013, 12:51:45 PM
Libertas, CO  & Weisshaupt,
I've never purchased silver or gold and am wanting to get into it, could you guys give a PM for Dummies quick overview of the terminology and some hints on what to do and especially what not to do?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 16, 2013, 01:17:32 PM

I'll defer to the pro's.  I like US (first) or other national coins.  There's a local dealer who sells at 6 to 8 %, so when I have an extra buck and it's (silver) low as it is now I pay him a visit.    

Edited
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 16, 2013, 01:48:50 PM
Hi Ben,  

Not sure what you are after? Is your goal prepping or "investing" (I put "investing" in quotes because gold is a shiny rock. Its not going to appreciate a lot in value on its own. There is always more coming out of the ground, so people who make money in gold are "speculating" - the rise in Gold price over the last 10 years has more to do with Fiat Management and inflation than it does with the value of the shiny rock.  If you think  Gold may someday be "money" - in that its commonly taken directly in trade as currency, then it has potential to gain "buying power" , otherwise, it much more like sticking money in a mattress, as a hedge against hard times, than it is a growth vehicle.  Many people have done historical ratio comparisons with Oil or other  commodities to decide if its under or over valued at a given moment- the implicit assumption being that a set amount of gold should be able to buy a particular set of goods regardless of what year it is or what fiat prices are attached to them.) Investors take advantage of periodic changes in market conditions to make money. Buy and Hold is not a good strategy if you are looking for real gains. Of course in a mark where treasury bonds are sold at negative real interest holding on to what you put in, is a gain. Gold should track inflation fairly well.

Silver is similar but more prone to market variation. 90% of silver demand is industrial - so even in a collapse, you may see prices fall as businesses are no longer buying it for use in their products. Gold has almost no commercial demand, and is therefore the better inflation-tracker.

There are many different forms of PM "investing" - Mining Stocks, ETF, Certificate accounts ( bank holds your gold physically for you), "stacking" (in possession holding) etc.

The paper market is certain suspect if not outright corrupt.  Many allegations are floating around about naked shorts by large players to manipulate the prices.  (in other words, its not much different than the HFT controlled stock market at this point) - "paper" gold has significant counter-party risk, and really just isn't a good idea at this point ( I don't think)  - Take physical delivery  and then loose it in a boating accident.

 There are also counterfeit bullion products out there- so you need to make sure you buy from a reputable dealer (though last year we found out that won't always protect you-  its entirely possible at this point that fakes being MANUFACTURED by respected mints)  - and probably prefer many items in small quantity by different manufacturers instead of say one large gold brick - thus minimizing the risk that all of your stuff will turn out to be fake.  There are chemical and electrical tests that can be done on bullion to determine is authenticity  - but they test surfaces- you have to file into or cut a bar to be sure. Then you get to reforge it because no one will buy it back in that condition.  Also many bars come in ASSAY packs - blister packs with a certificate - stating the history of the bar. Again, it helps, but its not a guarantee- especially if the manufacturer is corrupt ( or someone has gotten good at counterfeiting their certs and security) .  

The SPOT PRICE , loosely applied, is the going rate for a commodity. However, you will find the actual price varies by the form of the instrument, and the specific product you are after.

Numismatic Bullion has a "collector value"  - something about its shape, history, origin gives it values above its physical content or melt value. Rare coins, bars from a certain historical mine or mint, etc will have Numismatic value and vendors will charge a premium over and above the spot for them.  "Junk" Bullion  has no Numismatic collector value - but you will still  usually be asked to pay a premium over spot - Numismatic coins will vary more in value and have a greater potential upside. . . providing there is the right buyer willing to pay for that particular coin or ingot.

Junk bullion is usually preferred by the prepper.  Old US coins before 1964 are made of coin silver - 90%  pure. They are easily identifiable and come in small values that will be appropriate for trading  for things like eggs and bread. They have no Numismatic value - they are so many of them no one collects them as "rare"

Junk Gold is really jewelry.  In Argentina pure gold bars were sold for "junk gold" prices there being no really adequate way to determine they were pure. As such, a 10-18K gold chain may be a better investment for a prepper. Individual links can also be removed and sold individually allowing smaller purchases to be made.

I personally have used APMEX.com for my purchases which I then lost while fishing. . APMEX is  NOT the cheapest.  They are, however, in most circumstances, reliable. At least I have had no complaints, nor have I really ever heard of any.


 

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 16, 2013, 02:01:05 PM
About that paper manipulation  (http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/16_Massive_Paper_Gold_Selling_Eclipses_Annual_Mine_Production%21.html)

Quote
Gold bullion prices have been subjected to a cleverly orchestrated bear raid in our opinion. Selling of paper Comex contracts on Friday, April 12th, and Monday, April 15th, totaled 1 million contracts, exceeding global annual gold production by 12%.  The attack succeeded when the technical support in the low $1500’s/oz. easily gave way and led to waves of forced selling.  The volume is without precedent and has all the characteristics of a panic liquidation driven by naked short selling....

Emphasis mine.

This price drop may be the result of a loss of faith in the "gold-backed" paper. Apmex is now  running low - and this happened int 2008 too - prices were so low that no one with Physical was selling. At some point the physical market will decouple completely from the paper market.

And why did it happen in 2008? Because this is how Banks (like the ones in Cyprus) have to fund major shortfalls.
A better explanation  here (http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2013/04/15/we-have-seen-gold-prices-act-like-this-before/)

 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 16, 2013, 02:26:40 PM

This: "There are many different forms of PM "investing" - Mining Stocks, ETF, Certificate accounts ( bank holds your gold physically for you), "stacking" (in possession holding) etc." , in Weisshaupt's post brought mutual funds such a Vanguard to mind.  There are PM funds that are a mix of PMs and Miners. They are usually less expensive to purchase and offer a balance of safety that buying just Miners or PMs do not.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 16, 2013, 06:43:46 PM
I obviously favor physical (damn boating accidents!) because you have it, no piece of paper or digital certificate of ownership to monkey with.  APMEX has been very reliable for me, I see the premium as a tolerable price to pay for direct ownership.  Gold is a better long term store of value and as Weisshaupt explained a much better hedge for inflation and debasement of fiat.  I favor silver (and used to won more of it, damn boat!) because I see it as a more reasonable medium of trade in a post-fiat economy.  Both offer long term value.  The beat down of late is similar in other instances - shorting, a lot of margin calls on the fall for those who are leveraged.  These shakeouts occur routinely, the long term prognosis for PMs for me has always been there and I take these dips as buying opportunities.  When you go to an online or in-store seller the other terms you run into other than spot (market) is bid and ask, what people want to pay for and what people want to sell at.  I compare purchase price to spot to see what the current premium is.  I also favor bullion (usually rounds, there are bars and other interesting forms that can command a higher collector premium) over Eagles and government issues as I see private minters being less likely to experience an FDR-like nab, probably all fictitious on my part but it (would have been, damn boat!) my excuse to tell the government attempting such lawlessness to KMA!  I forget the mining outfit but somebody recently suffered some sort of accident, mine collapse, will put a crimp on supply.  Demand by stackers seems strong so demand could push prices up again, odds are they'll float around this lower level before any run-up starts again.  More kabuki economic shocks could help jump-start that too.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: benb61 on April 16, 2013, 07:56:01 PM
Thanks for all the info, keep it coming. I'm thinking for me it is more prepping than investing.

The engineer in me has another question.  At the APMEX link earlier they advertise rounds of 1 oz. .999 Fine Silver, the description says 39mm diameter X 3.2mm thick.  So I created a CAD model of this round applied silver as the material and that size and material weighs 1.289 Troy ounces (1.414 standard oz.).  Seems like something is amiss.  Anyone?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 16, 2013, 08:32:08 PM

It's not uncommon for a coin to be an alloy.  It will weigh more than an oz but contain an oz of silver.  Krugerand gold is that way, it weighs more than US or Maple Leaf.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: benb61 on April 16, 2013, 08:51:15 PM
then how do they claim .999 pure silver?  Is that a percentage or a mass?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 16, 2013, 09:13:46 PM
Thanks for all the info, keep it coming. I'm thinking for me it is more prepping than investing.

The engineer in me has another question.  At the APMEX link earlier they advertise rounds of 1 oz. .999 Fine Silver, the description says 39mm diameter X 3.2mm thick.  So I created a CAD model of this round applied silver as the material and that size and material weighs 1.289 Troy ounces (1.414 standard oz.).  Seems like something is amiss.  Anyone?

It should be by mass, and while CO is right, many Coins are coin silver - something stamped .999 pure should be exactly  that by mass. - and weigh pretty close to  10.49 gm/ cubic centimeter. . So My only guess is that the dimensions given aren't really that accurate   The design  may add/remove some volume as well making such measurements general and not specific.. . It should weigh one troy oz when you receive it because that what was struck in the first place if the mint was any good.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 17, 2013, 06:41:57 AM
Thanks for all the info, keep it coming. I'm thinking for me it is more prepping than investing.

The engineer in me has another question.  At the APMEX link earlier they advertise rounds of 1 oz. .999 Fine Silver, the description says 39mm diameter X 3.2mm thick.  So I created a CAD model of this round applied silver as the material and that size and material weighs 1.289 Troy ounces (1.414 standard oz.).  Seems like something is amiss.  Anyone?

It should be by mass, and while CO is right, many Coins are coin silver - something stamped .999 pure should be exactly  that by mass. - and weigh pretty close to  10.49 gm/ cubic centimeter. . So My only guess is that the dimensions given aren't really that accurate   The design  may add/remove some volume as well making such measurements general and not specific.. . It should weigh one troy oz when you receive it because that what was struck in the first place if the mint was any good.



They are rounds but they still have designs, the dimensions must not be taking into consideration the recess for images/engravings, most have raised edges like coins.  Even the bars can have that characterstic.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 17, 2013, 06:59:46 AM
Many taking advantage of the chaos -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/indias-response-gold-sell-buying-frenzy (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/indias-response-gold-sell-buying-frenzy)

Seems to continue the demand theme -

http://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/demand_and_supply_statistics/ (http://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/demand_and_supply_statistics/)

ETA - Global frenzy! (I just love that term!)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/gold-buying-frenzy-continues-china-japan-and-australia-scramble-physical (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/gold-buying-frenzy-continues-china-japan-and-australia-scramble-physical)

It's like those birds in that cartoon..."Mine! Mine! Mine!"! 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 21, 2013, 12:45:50 PM
More on the physical feeding frenzy -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-20/10-signs-paper-gold-crash-unleashed-unprecedented-demand-physical-gold-and-silver (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-20/10-signs-paper-gold-crash-unleashed-unprecedented-demand-physical-gold-and-silver)

I have a boating trip scheduled for tomorrow.   ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 21, 2013, 01:09:14 PM
Looks like I've been on your coattails all day.

Where is the gold 

Where is the gold
You said you'd give to me
Soon as you were free
Will it ever be
Where is the gold?

You told me that you didn't love it,
And you were gonna say goodbye
But if you really didn't mean it,
Why did you have to lie?

Where is the gold ,
You said was mine all mine, till the end of time
Was it just a lie
Where is the gold

If you had had a sudden change of heart
I wish that you would tell me so
Don't leave me hangin on the promises
You've got to let me know

Where is the gold

Oh how I wish I never met you
I guess it must have been my fate
To fall in love with someone else's gold
All I can do is wait
(that's all I can do)
Yeah yeah yeah

Where is the gold
Where is the gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-21/secret-world-gold)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 22, 2013, 12:55:39 PM

Last week (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-22/arizona-set-use-gold-silver-currency), Arizona lawmakers passed a bill that makes precious metals legal tender. Arizona is the second state after Utah to allow gold coins created by the U.S. Mint and private mints to be used as currency. More than a dozen states have legislature underway to pass similar measures.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 22, 2013, 06:00:05 PM
...and silver, don't forget that.   ::thumbsup::

MOAR!   ::whoohoo::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 24, 2013, 08:30:57 PM
All that glitters...is being gobbled up!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/us-mint-gold-sales-surge-highest-2009 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/us-mint-gold-sales-surge-highest-2009)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on April 24, 2013, 10:10:22 PM

The ETF/physical is playing close to your vision.

                                time   bid     ask
SILVER 04/24/2013 17:15 23.16 23.26

Think I'm going to pay a visit to the G&S shop tomorrow.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 25, 2013, 06:45:15 AM
Sounds like a good plan, let us know what availabilty and markup are like. 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on April 25, 2013, 02:37:59 PM
JPMC empties bank vault of Gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-24/just-what-going-gold-jpmorgans-vault)

No seriously. Did they take it down? Were they forced to in order to cover other things? If so, wouldn't they be smart enough to sell it a little at a time to get the most gain? Or did they just not have time to? Or did they just move it to a new location knowing that the vault will soon be empty?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 25, 2013, 04:43:59 PM
Second to last option could be in play, I heard from more than one source that central banks are hoarding up.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 26, 2013, 01:49:39 PM
Damn, this is good!

Total Net gold deliveries Feb 1 to April 25:

Vision Financial – 1 contract
R J O’Brien – 2
ADM Investor Services INC – 2
Marex – 5
Citigroup Global Markets – 10
ABN AMRO – 110
JP Morgan – 19,660

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-26/jpmorgan-accounts-993-comex-gold-sales-last-three-months (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-26/jpmorgan-accounts-993-comex-gold-sales-last-three-months)

Do as I do, not as I say!  Dance monkeys, dance! 

The lecture on GLD is gold, gold Jerry, gold!   ;D
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 19, 2013, 06:25:03 PM

Commodities Now
(http://www.commodities-now.com/news/14514-hkmex-voluntarily-surrenders-automated-trading-services.html)

The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) announces today it has decided to voluntarily surrender the authorisation to provide automated trading services (“ATS”) granted by the Securities and Futures Commission (“the SFC”). With immediate effect, no new orders may be placed and all open positions will be financially settled at the settlement price determined by HKMEx and its designated clearinghouse.

More of that tangible vs intangible.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 19, 2013, 07:11:25 PM
It's all about control...makes it easier to manipulate the game.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 30, 2013, 07:24:34 AM
Many of the comments are spot on...some short, some long...in many ways better than the article, although the article does give a halfway decent breakdown of various types of players...but bottom line - the PTBs are doing all they can to manipulate markets and prop up currencies...and they are not shy about hoarding up on barbarous relic after the trees and bushes are vigorously shaken.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-29/understanding-gold-market-dynamics (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-29/understanding-gold-market-dynamics)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 31, 2013, 07:20:12 AM
Stairway to Hell....nice...but aparently quite true in this case.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-30/things-make-you-go-hhmm-our-current-bizarro-world (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-30/things-make-you-go-hhmm-our-current-bizarro-world)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on June 16, 2013, 03:59:37 PM

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20130614DeC_metalsOutlook.html
Federal Open Market Committee is meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp ...Definition of 'Federal Open Market Committee - FOMC'

The branch of the Federal Reserve Board that determines the direction of monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of the board of governors, which has seven members, and five reserve bank presidents. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York serves continuously, while the presidents of the other reserve banks rotate their service of one-year terms.
...
The FOMC meets eight times per year to set key interest rates, such as the discount rate, and to decide whether to increase or decrease the money supply, which the Fed does by buying and selling government securities. For example, to tighten the money supply, or decrease the amount of money available in the banking system, the Fed sells government securities. The meetings of the committee, which are secret, are the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts try to guess whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply, thereby causing interest rates to rise or fall.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Open_Market_Committee ...Membership

The Federal Open Market Committee was formed by the Banking Act of 1933 (codified at 12 U.S.C. § 263), and did not include voting rights for the Board of Governors. The Banking Act of 1935 revised these protocols to include the Board of Governors and to closely resemble the present-day FOMC, and was amended in 1942 to give the current structure of twelve voting members:[3] the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board and five of the twelve Federal Reserve Bank presidents.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York president always sits on the Committee, and the other presidents serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of banks, one bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.

All of the Reserve Bank presidents, even those who are not currently voting members of the FOMC, attend Committee meetings, participate in discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options. The Committee meets eight times a year, approximately once every six weeks.

I like the part about it being a New Deal, Collectivist ram job on capitalism, on our free Republic.


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 16, 2013, 07:36:52 PM
1933 was a suck year.  So was 1913 IIRC.  Been a passel of 'em since.   ::outrage::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on July 05, 2013, 01:19:26 PM

Hey, hey, hey, today is not a bad day if anyone is interested.
I'm shootin' fer Tuesday.

Ag
Real-time:    14:14:10 ET         Change:    -0.93(-4.72%)    
Bid:    18.79    High:   19.51
Ask:    18.89    Low:    18.63
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on July 06, 2013, 02:22:24 PM

Forward > (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,913.msg102073.html#msg102073)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: charlesoakwood on July 06, 2013, 02:24:29 PM

Hey, hey, hey, today is not a bad day if anyone is interested.
I'm shootin' fer Tuesday.

Ag
Real-time:    14:14:10 ET         Change:    -0.93(-4.72%)    
Bid:    18.79    High:   19.51
Ask:    18.89    Low:    18.63

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476089 (http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476089)
Margin Calls Coming On US Too-Big-To-Fail Banks
&
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/low-place-gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/low-place-gold)

I'm still thinking Tuesday.

Goodbye, Ruby Tuesday
Who could hang a name on you?
When you change with every new day
Still I'm gonna miss you


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 07, 2013, 07:12:20 PM
Yup...another monkeyhammer opportunity...problem is finding physical inventory, but I might try this week...but I am hearing some long delivery times...and I want physical not paper...the real deal makes a better boating accident...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Predator Don on July 07, 2013, 07:26:09 PM
 I'm taking advantage of all the free money pumped into the market. I've made a few bucks this last few months. I bank with Regions and bought their stock when it was 4 bucks. Around 10 today. Did the same with Bank of America. When the rich dude ( his name escapes me) bought a bunch, I figured it isn't going down. Reminds me I need to go set my stop loss.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 07, 2013, 08:00:40 PM
I'm taking advantage of all the free money pumped into the market. I've made a few bucks this last few months. I bank with Regions and bought their stock when it was 4 bucks. Around 10 today. Did the same with Bank of America. When the rich dude ( his name escapes me) bought a bunch, I figured it isn't going down. Reminds me I need to go set my stop loss.

Yes, in these (cough!) "markets", protecting ones backside is mandatory!   ::thumbsup::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 17, 2013, 07:21:40 AM
The comments are probably as enlightening than the article...I think the central banks have been leasing their gold out for decades to the bullion banks and now find themselves in the rather precarious position of needing to reclaim that which they are supposed to own before the shortfall is exposed. (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-16/things-make-you-go-hmmm-gold)

The degree to which the underlying structure of the physical gold market has changed over the last few months has yet to make itself apparent; but the first time we get an "event" that makes it necessary for people who don't have gold to buy some, and for people who do own it to have more, we will see how things have changed.

The gold price has been falling heavily for several months, but when the need to own gold jumps again - and it will; this is a long way from over - all the pieces of this jigsaw puzzle of the weird and wonderful forest of gold manipulation that we have dropped onto the table will slot neatly into place.

What if, when that happens, there just isn't enough gold to go around?

Checkmate!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 22, 2013, 07:45:08 AM
Demand finally starting to assert itself?

http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/ (http://www.pmbull.com/gold-price/)

Liftoff?

ETA - Pulling back a bit now...Ben's mokeyfisters at work no doubt!

Another ETA - Demand in India expected to rise in anticipation of festival season, the recent slide/beat-down might be over.

Yet another ETA - ZH usually posts this fella alot, don't recall this one being posted, has some interesting things to say:  http://beforeitsnews.com/financial-markets/2013/07/golds-lower-price-is-a-ruse-eric-sprott-2574496.html (http://beforeitsnews.com/financial-markets/2013/07/golds-lower-price-is-a-ruse-eric-sprott-2574496.html)

Bottom line - buy, it may not get monkeyhammered down lower again....
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 29, 2013, 01:39:01 PM
I like articles like this that start out with historical stuff...

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476960 (http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476960)

...so, the Coinage Act of 1792 got me to thinking...and it got me to figuring...

...if I converted grams/ounce and grains to grams right and such then according to my math it is highly likely that gold has been manipulated from then to now to the tune of...well...a lot!

The Founders thought a ration of gold to silver of 15:1 was proper.  Just using their face values the ratio established was actually 10:1.  Where did the other 5:1 go you might ask...well, I'm guessing they anticipated a growth in value and therefor a strengthening of the dollar for the new Republic.  Perhaps rosy assumptions in government numbers goes back further than we think, eh?  Anyway...updating the Founders coinage weights to current value a $10 Eagle with 16 grams of 99.9% pure gold should have a current value of about $683.99.  One (silver) Dollar (99.9% pure, 24.1 grams) should be worth about $15.41.  Value per denomination (dollars) should be $68.40 to $15.41...current value wise a ratio of just 4.44:1.  Since this exercise holds silver price to be "true", all things being equal (and most likely) gold has been manipulated in value far below what it should be at...pump it up to the Founders effective ratio of 10:1 and gold should be closer to $2997/ounce...use the statutory 15:1 ratio and it should be closer $4495/ounce. 

I look at todays ratio in per ounce prices and gold is trading at about 66-67 times silver.  Historically since the 70's is about 60.  Some think gold realistically should be closer to about $2500/ounce...using the 60:1 ratio then silver should be about $41.67/ounce.

While all this calculatin' is fun...bottom line: the PTB's have gamed the values of all precious metals...when the fiat kabuki ends people will want something tangible in their hands...not wads of notes that have suddenly become no more useful than pretty buttwipe or handy fire-starter!

 ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 14, 2013, 12:26:57 PM
Hilarious. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-14/why-gold-spiking (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-14/why-gold-spiking)

Follow that?

Yeah, that's the point.  Germany is still waiting on delivery from 33 Liberty Plaza...get in line suckers!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on August 14, 2013, 03:19:14 PM

I look at todays ratio in per ounce prices and gold is trading at about 66-67 times silver.  Historically since the 70's is about 60.  Some think gold realistically should be closer to about $2500/ounce...using the 60:1 ratio then silver should be about $41.67/ounce.


While this may be redundant, I feel compelled to reiterate:

This is NOT a "money making" opportunity.  Just as the historical ratio between gold and silver is there because of their long term value, they will retain largely  the same value in the new world - I would expect to buy the same amount of oil for them for instance that historical ratio predicts. - unless they actually start to be used as Money ( people routinely take gold and silver in exchange because they believe others will accept it just as freely in the future)  Otherwise, expect you Gold and silver to buy what they would have bought in a "healthy economy"- back when prices were much lower ( both the price of the bullion and the price of everything else)  If they are used as money demand for them will go up and that will create more "value"  for the metals, not because the shiny rocks are more valuable, but because they now have money value.


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 15, 2013, 07:23:08 AM

I look at todays ratio in per ounce prices and gold is trading at about 66-67 times silver.  Historically since the 70's is about 60.  Some think gold realistically should be closer to about $2500/ounce...using the 60:1 ratio then silver should be about $41.67/ounce.


While this may be redundant, I feel compelled to reiterate:

This is NOT a "money making" opportunity.  Just as the historical ratio between gold and silver is there because of their long term value, they will retain largely  the same value in the new world - I would expect to buy the same amount of oil for them for instance that historical ratio predicts. - unless they actually start to be used as Money ( people routinely take gold and silver in exchange because they believe others will accept it just as freely in the future)  Otherwise, expect you Gold and silver to buy what they would have bought in a "healthy economy"- back when prices were much lower ( both the price of the bullion and the price of everything else)  If they are used as money demand for them will go up and that will create more "value"  for the metals, not because the shiny rocks are more valuable, but because they now have money value.

Agreed.  Not in PMs for the money making, in PMs for the real value it will always command.  The numbers exercise was merely a half-hearted effort to see where the PTBs are manipulating to fiat peg.  PMs value will be determined by the value of the other goods it will be exchanging with, and that could vary from location to location, item to item, day to day as supply and demand naturally dictate.  We will be at a more pure form of capitalism and free trade.

Hmm, regarding the latter, stumbled across  this (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php?topic=8716.new#new) which provides an excellent example of what to do and not do.  We will all need to keep this in mind in the post-SHTF world we are set to enter very soon.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on August 15, 2013, 07:45:50 AM

Agreed.  Not in PMs for the money making, in PMs for the real value it will always command.

Yeah, I figured you got it.. It was more for anyone who might come along and not understand your reasoning,   because gold bugs usually pitch that same stats  and then  claim  "Golds going to $2000, $5000 or beyond"   - and most likely it is.  But unless you are paying off dollar denominated debt,  that isn't going to be of any help, as hamburger, bread, milk and gas are headed to $100, $500 and beyond as well.  Its really terrifying how many gold bugs don't pick up on that.
 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 15, 2013, 07:51:29 AM

Agreed.  Not in PMs for the money making, in PMs for the real value it will always command.

Yeah, I figured you got it.. It was more for anyone who might come along and not understand your reasoning,   because gold bugs usually pitch that same stats  and then  claim  "Golds going to $2000, $5000 or beyond"   - and most likely it is.  But unless you are paying off dollar denominated debt,  that isn't going to be of any help, as hamburger, bread, milk and gas are headed to $100, $500 and beyond as well.  Its really terrifying how many gold bugs don't pick up on that.

Yup, the main culprit is fiat and the support structures propping it up.  Once those supports start to weaken and collapse...Katy bar the door!  There will be a whipsaw effect in the early going for valuables like food, fuel and medicine...and unfortunately until the die-back phase runs its course there won't be much equilibrium or stability in Barterland.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on August 15, 2013, 08:29:28 AM
There will be a whipsaw effect in the early going for valuables like food, fuel and medicine...and unfortunately until the die-back phase runs its course there won't be much equilibrium or stability in Barterland.

And your gold and silver may not be worth much in "barterland", where Ammo, food and Toiletries  command much higher values than shiny rocks.  Though I bet there will be a lot of people willing to take shiny rocks for such supplies as they prepare for phase II after the die back, when they are likely to become money.

Is it bad the term "die-back" brings a smile to my face? I have such a callous disregard for the locusts, but then, I learned it from them didn't I?

 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on August 15, 2013, 09:43:15 AM
More Dollars coming home to roost.  (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-15/ticsaster-foreigners-sell-more-us-securities-after-lehman-bankruptcy) - Bonds are rising (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-15/10y-yield-jumps-new-2-year-high) and of course the Fed has to roll over 40% of the debt  in the next two years.   Gold market is getting tighter too (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-14/physical-gold-supply-tightness), but the premiums have been pretty consistent over the last few months .. and I don't see a lot of stuff out of stock at AMPEX ..

Things are moving. There is no way the Fed can taper.. even  giving a date the taper will start might crash the markets at this point.  I bet anything the Fed announces that they won't.. and then happy days are here again.. till it all goes, and I am afraid that date is getting much much closer.

I have learned not to underestimate TPTB in their ability to extend and pretend this charade. As one commenter from the first article suggests, "Get to the Choppa!!" to most Americans means sit and watch the commercial for the next TV recording device called "The Choppa!" - so financial panic overseas may not translate (immediately) into panic here.  All the same, some of the purchases I have been delaying will probably get executed here in the near term .
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 15, 2013, 11:15:25 AM
There will be a whipsaw effect in the early going for valuables like food, fuel and medicine...and unfortunately until the die-back phase runs its course there won't be much equilibrium or stability in Barterland.

And your gold and silver may not be worth much in "barterland", where Ammo, food and Toiletries  command much higher values than shiny rocks.  Though I bet there will be a lot of people willing to take shiny rocks for such supplies as they prepare for phase II after the die back, when they are likely to become money.

Is it bad the term "die-back" brings a smile to my face? I have such a callous disregard for the locusts, but then, I learned it from them didn't I?

Agreed, diversified physical inventory is going to be essential.  And no, it is not callous or bad to smile at their fate, they are laughing at all us chumps right now funding their FreeShyt! holiday, we'll be laughing last.

 ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 15, 2013, 11:22:47 AM
More Dollars coming home to roost.  (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-15/ticsaster-foreigners-sell-more-us-securities-after-lehman-bankruptcy) - Bonds are rising (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-15/10y-yield-jumps-new-2-year-high) and of course the Fed has to roll over 40% of the debt  in the next two years.   Gold market is getting tighter too (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-14/physical-gold-supply-tightness), but the premiums have been pretty consistent over the last few months .. and I don't see a lot of stuff out of stock at AMPEX ..

Things are moving. There is no way the Fed can taper.. even  giving a date the taper will start might crash the markets at this point.  I bet anything the Fed announces that they won't.. and then happy days are here again.. till it all goes, and I am afraid that date is getting much much closer.

I have learned not to underestimate TPTB in their ability to extend and pretend this charade. As one commenter from the first article suggests, "Get to the Choppa!!" to most Americans means sit and watch the commercial for the next TV recording device called "The Choppa!" - so financial panic overseas may not translate (immediately) into panic here.  All the same, some of the purchases I have been delaying will probably get executed here in the near term .

Things are tightening and one day availability will be a real issue...it already is for Central Banks, nobody wants to be caught without once the music stops...and I haven't heard how much (very little I think) Germany got out of NY.  While there is retail availability I'll keep dipping in here and there.  But I need to acquire a few other things yet.  The Fed can't stop the priming, they keep squeezing one end of the balloon or another, the kabuki will end soon enough, but I got a sneakin' feelin' the PTBs got some scheming going on, they might pick on a weak sister or two to sacrifice in order to goad the frightened herd into the risk-off quality refuge of their choosing...might even generate a nation-building exercise somewhere to provide covering fog...more games before the bell tolls.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 19, 2013, 07:28:07 AM
Could this be the signal that the buying window for physical is about to shut for a very long time?

When supply can no longer meet demand...look out!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-18/jpmorgan-puzzled-record-gold-backwardation (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-18/jpmorgan-puzzled-record-gold-backwardation)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 04, 2013, 07:37:49 AM
Leasing...leverage...whatever...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-03/guest-post-finlands-gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-03/guest-post-finlands-gold)

If you don't have physical possession of something, know what you got?  Nothing!

The gaming cannot continue indefinitely...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 12, 2013, 07:50:31 AM
This is just more confirmation of manipulation...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-11/what-confidential-1974-memo-paul-volcker-reveals-about-americas-true-views-gold-rese (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-11/what-confidential-1974-memo-paul-volcker-reveals-about-americas-true-views-gold-rese)

Tipping point?  Is the death of the dollar a matter of how soon?

 ::saywhat::

ETA - Maybe really soon!

Chi-Com's have another new gold vault...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-12/china-opens-largest-private-gold-vault-capacity-82-billion-worth-precious-metal (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-12/china-opens-largest-private-gold-vault-capacity-82-billion-worth-precious-metal)

...with more physical flowing into China, the death of the dollar could be really close...and this Fed taper talk again is all just that, talk, those clowns will print us into destitution...and China will foreclose on America!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 20, 2013, 08:16:49 AM
The Masters of the Crazy Universe at it again...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-20/furious-gold-slamdown-leads-third-consecutive-20-second-gold-market-halt (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-20/furious-gold-slamdown-leads-third-consecutive-20-second-gold-market-halt)

...the buying opportunites will cease once physical supply is no longer claimed...then that curtain will be closed until the final act...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 13, 2013, 06:57:43 AM
Recent beatdowns have made another physical buying opportunity if anybody has a notion to aquire...don't forget to schedule the boat trip too.

 ;)

Don't know how long the buying window will stay open...at some point the supply has to tighten and the scheming will be forced to end...

Seen warnings like this (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-15/perfect-storm-coming-gold) before...just waiting for the when at this point, the if is no longer in doubt...

ETA 12/19 - Wow, down to 1202.20 & 19.28, that paltry $5B/Mo Fed taper gave reassurance to stawks and they took it out on PMs.  I gotta put a small order in at these prices!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 09, 2014, 07:15:53 AM
Interesting read.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-08/23-reasons-be-bullish-gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-08/23-reasons-be-bullish-gold)

Seeing Darth Soros swim into the mining companies sure makes me nervous!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 20, 2014, 07:38:28 AM
Take away for me is...they probably got all they could scrounge up...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/germany-has-recovered-paltry-5-tons-gold-ny-fed-after-one-year (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/germany-has-recovered-paltry-5-tons-gold-ny-fed-after-one-year)

Anybody still think Ft Knox or 33 Liberty Street or anywhere else in the US of A has big stacks of gold in it?  If so, I got a bridge in Brooklyn I can let ya have real cheap!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 27, 2014, 11:55:13 AM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-27/scrambling-gold-mints-around-world-plead-we-can%E2%80%99t-meet-demand (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-27/scrambling-gold-mints-around-world-plead-we-can%E2%80%99t-meet-demand)

This is one crazy assed world we live in!

Neo-Keynesian masters of the universe use every crooked means to beat PMs down, make it attractive for people to load up at cheap prices, all to prop up the illusion that stocks and bonds and the dollar are such swell investments...and then minters go apenuts trying to keep up with demand so that demand doesn't cause peices to shoot up...

I can't wait to see what happens when there is nothing left to buy!

Kinda puts that Darth Soros mining stock play into perspective, now doesn't it?

Let's all buy whatever we can, and see if we can hasten the day, OK?!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on January 27, 2014, 01:05:36 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-27/scrambling-gold-mints-around-world-plead-we-can%E2%80%99t-meet-demand (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-27/scrambling-gold-mints-around-world-plead-we-can%E2%80%99t-meet-demand)

This is one crazy assed world we live in!

Neo-Keynesian masters of the universe use every crooked means to beat PMs down, make it attractive for people to load up at cheap prices, all to prop up the illusion that stocks and bonds and the dollar are such swell investments...and then minters go apenuts trying to keep up with demand so that demand doesn't cause peices to shoot up...

I can't wait to see what happens when there is nothing left to buy!


I have been thinking about that.. I think TPTB have too much of a vested interest in Comex to let it fail. They need it to suppress gold prices, right? Paper gold is basically a fractional reserve system.. they are  offering  more contracts than can be settled by physical and then buying the vast majority themselves ( if they haven't rigged it to buy it all)  so only need to supply physical on a small amount..

So if demand  for Real Physical gold goes up, and exceeds what Comex delivers, what will they do?  I suspect they will dlo what they have always done in that circumstance-- -- settle for fiat.  So here is the theory and I welcome thoughts  on it:

TPTB step in with a Bailout..  and pay a premium over the physical prices being demanded.  So if a Physical item + premium = $1500  they offer to settle the contract with no physical delivery for $1600 or something.  So prices will rise, but they won't rise as much.  Its kick the can.  Nothing solves the problem, but TPTB seem intent on squeezing as much time out of the system as possible.  So they essentially start buying off gold investors ( they already are if you think about it , by keeping prices artificially low)  by bribing them to take a cash settlement.   The elevated prices will also allow more mining, so the actual physical supply will start going up again as well.  The big hedge fund and big bank  cronies, just start investing in the Gold market paper to get their extra hundred bucks, just like they do now  in Stocks. This will result in a pile on of large investors and a bubble of some sort.  Prices for Gold will necessarily rise, but not as much as they would in a Comex  crash/panic , and TPTB retain the ability to influence and affect the price by continuing their stupid fake paper  deals.  They essentially drown out those demanding Physical gold with a bunch of sheep and day traders just wanting the guaranteed $100 (or whatever premium is actually required to entice them)  It just becomes another way to get into the Fed's money tree on the first ( newly printed ) branch.  The lie becomes obvious because more gold is being traded on a daily basis than ever before,  and physical is just as impossible to get.. but it doesn't matter because the majority are in it for the paper payout.


Thoughts? Is this realistic?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 27, 2014, 02:55:53 PM
The kickers are fiat and real demand, they keep destroying fiat and appeasing demand.  At some point if the demand for physical outstrips available supply and paper fails to satisfy those demanding physical then they have no choice but to go insane with fiat or let PM prices go insane...either way I want them pushed to the wall.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 31, 2014, 07:32:22 AM
(http://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/which-gold-miners-hold-most-supply.jpg)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-30/infographic-which-gold-miners-hold-most-supply-and-who-must-replenish-through-ma (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-30/infographic-which-gold-miners-hold-most-supply-and-who-must-replenish-through-ma)

Burns my ass...Pebble, just like Keystone for oil, is a commodity purposely restricted by government goons.  EPA!  They need to be eliminated!

But at some point the fools will have to yield, or see demand send gold prices skyrocketing, then their whole paper ponzi schemes go up in smoke.  I'd like to see Fedcoats overrule their little EPA bitch and open mining sites...talk about a hilarious and desperate moment!

And as far as the mining companies go I don't think all is bad news.  There are still some values out the and if prices ever become more unmanipulated their values will shoot up, and there will be some consolidation opportunities so if they are smart and do not overleverage, more values are there.

I guess with Darth Soros jumping into miners it is to be seen if it is a pump & dump or long term play.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 02, 2014, 07:19:34 AM
Silver manipulation visually captured again.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/even-cme-getting-tired-silver-manipulation (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/even-cme-getting-tired-silver-manipulation)

All you can do is say "OK, I'll buy some more physical" and go do it.

When they run out of inventory, guess what? 

Yeah, that'll be an unforgettable day.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 02, 2014, 08:50:58 AM
Silver manipulation visually captured again.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/even-cme-getting-tired-silver-manipulation (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/even-cme-getting-tired-silver-manipulation)

All you can do is say "OK, I'll buy some more physical" and go do it.

When they run out of inventory, guess what? 

Yeah, that'll be an unforgettable day.

Premiums on Junk Silver are over $2 again..
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 02, 2014, 11:43:47 AM
Silver manipulation visually captured again.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/even-cme-getting-tired-silver-manipulation (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-01/even-cme-getting-tired-silver-manipulation)

All you can do is say "OK, I'll buy some more physical" and go do it.

When they run out of inventory, guess what? 

Yeah, that'll be an unforgettable day.

Premiums on Junk Silver are over $2 again..

Figures.

Probably doesn't matter though, probably still vastly undervalued, so it won't be junk for long...most people have no idea how much junk they're really surrounded by right now!

Poor dumb bastards!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 05, 2014, 01:36:13 PM
Gold up over $1300 to a 30 day high this morning, silver relatively unchanged.. premium on Junk silver at APMEX is now $2.19...

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 05, 2014, 02:33:28 PM
Buy buy buy, buy buy some more.

Buy buy buy, buy buy some more.

Everybody sing now!

Buy buy buy, buy buy some more.

 ::cool::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 06, 2014, 11:33:31 AM
For those who are curious...

To figure out what your "junk" silver is worth, you have to basically do math and figure out the weight of the coin (usually stated in grams and convert it to a Troy ounce equivalent) and multiply it times the silver content (stated as a percent), then you can multiply that times the per-ounce bid price to know what the value to buy (before premium) should be and what the ask price to know what the value is to sell (before discount).

Or I can just tell you...

War Nickels - 35% silver - silver content in ounces is 5.635% (actually 5.6352459 if you go out seven places, three should do though)

Pre-1964 Dimes - 90% silver - silver per ounce content is 7.223

Pre-1964 Quarters - 90% silver - 18.084

Bicentennial Quarters - 40% silver - 7.377

Pre-1964 Halves - 90% silver - 36.168

1965-1970 JFK Halves - 40% silver - 14.805

Pre-1935 Dollars - 90% silver - 77.357

1971-1976 Ike Dollars - 40% silver - 31.609

Or, as long as the internets are up you can go to places like this - http://www.silverrecyclers.com/Calculators/coin_calculator.aspx (http://www.silverrecyclers.com/Calculators/coin_calculator.aspx)

*But I recommend scribbling the above down somewhere for use in a TEOTWAWKI situation where the internets may no longer be available!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on May 07, 2014, 07:15:02 AM
I think you mean as in the dollar, 90% silver, .77357 ounces of silver, not a percent.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 07, 2014, 08:01:58 AM
I think you mean as in the dollar, 90% silver, .77357 ounces of silver, not a percent.

Ah, thats it. I was looking and couldn't figure out how they were getting those numbers.
The other thing to be aware of is that  the dimes have a larger surface area and are expected to have lost more silver in circulation than the quarter, half dollar etc.
So a $500 bag if dimes is likely to have less overall silver in it than a $5000 of half dollars.

However, if Junk silver is forced into circulation again, I doubt most people will be weighing a dime and determining its silver content unless it is very, very worn ( as in, the stamping is almost gone)  -  a 90% silver  dime will be worth a 90% silver dime as long as others can reasonably expect is will be accepted as such at a later date. If on the other hand you take it into the  the smelter, yeah you bet he is going to weight it.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 07, 2014, 10:17:53 AM
I think you mean as in the dollar, 90% silver, .77357 ounces of silver, not a percent.

Yes, thanks...removed those pesky things so as to avoid confusion.

 ::hat-tip::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 07, 2014, 10:20:37 AM
I think you mean as in the dollar, 90% silver, .77357 ounces of silver, not a percent.

Ah, thats it. I was looking and couldn't figure out how they were getting those numbers.
The other thing to be aware of is that  the dimes have a larger surface area and are expected to have lost more silver in circulation than the quarter, half dollar etc.
So a $500 bag if dimes is likely to have less overall silver in it than a $5000 of half dollars.

However, if Junk silver is forced into circulation again, I doubt most people will be weighing a dime and determining its silver content unless it is very, very worn ( as in, the stamping is almost gone)  -  a 90% silver  dime will be worth a 90% silver dime as long as others can reasonably expect is will be accepted as such at a later date. If on the other hand you take it into the  the smelter, yeah you bet he is going to weight it.

As long as you know the percent silver content, the weight and the weight of silver in each "average" coin, you should not get cheated even if you get weighed by the smelter, just check his math and the calibration of his scales!

 ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 23, 2014, 08:33:41 AM
With Barclays being spanked (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-23/barclays-fined-manipulating-price-gold-decade-sending-bursts-sell-orders) just who the Hell is doing the 8am monkey-hammering of gold now (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-23/its-800-am-do-you-know-where-your-un-rigged-non-barclays-gold-slam)?

SSDD...

 ::outrage::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 27, 2014, 08:09:00 AM
Now Austria is asking for an accounting of their outside gold holdings (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-26/first-germany-now-austria-demands-audit-its-offshore-held-gold), but they may have to wait until the PTBs are done with their usual 8am monkey-hammering of gold & silver (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-27/its-8am-gold-smashing-time-0) first, before reading the Austrian requesting and shatting their pants...

I can just see a crony operative addressing another..."wtf are we going to do?  wtf do we tell them?"!

 ::hysterical::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 28, 2014, 11:51:29 AM
This could end up making the 8-24-1814 sacking and burning of Washington, DC by the British look tame by comparison...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-28/putin-says-russia-china-need-ensure-security-their-gold-reserves (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-28/putin-says-russia-china-need-ensure-security-their-gold-reserves)

...if these two start hoarding physical stockpiles and successfully crash the dollar as world reserve currency...

...I think people a little closer to home might be sacking and burning DC...and it won't be over in one day!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 19, 2014, 02:00:55 PM
Hilarious, Effen Yellen says no change in rates and gold and silver go shooting up and the dollar takes it hard in the Obama!   ::hysterical::

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/silver-surges-3-month-highs-china-ponzi-unwinds (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/silver-surges-3-month-highs-china-ponzi-unwinds)

These two comments from the article nail it!

lordylord

"When I have to pay a $5 / OZ premium for physical then I will know the game has changed."

When people aren't taking dollars for silver, then the game has changed.


Dr. Engali

That's my point. If you don't own some before a disaster, it will be too late to get your hands on any after it happens. Because if and when disaster strikes, it will be fast and furious.

Same goes for silver and lead.  Gold might be barterable for big ticket stuff, but it will be silver that allows you to trade for necessities, and lead that will allow the transaction to be conducted fairly.

 ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on June 19, 2014, 02:37:04 PM
Hilarious, Effen Yellen says no change in rates and gold and silver go shooting up and the dollar takes it hard in the Obama!   ::hysterical::

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/silver-surges-3-month-highs-china-ponzi-unwinds (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/silver-surges-3-month-highs-china-ponzi-unwinds)

These two comments from the article nail it!

lordylord

"When I have to pay a $5 / OZ premium for physical then I will know the game has changed."

When people aren't taking dollars for silver, then the game has changed.


Dr. Engali

That's my point. If you don't own some before a disaster, it will be too late to get your hands on any after it happens. Because if and when disaster strikes, it will be fast and furious.

Same goes for silver and lead.  Gold might be barterable for big ticket stuff, but it will be silver that allows you to trade for necessities, and lead that will allow the transaction to be conducted fairly.

 ;)

Iv'e always liked that Dr. Engali
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 23, 2014, 07:16:47 AM
Hilarious, Effen Yellen says no change in rates and gold and silver go shooting up and the dollar takes it hard in the Obama!   ::hysterical::

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/silver-surges-3-month-highs-china-ponzi-unwinds (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/silver-surges-3-month-highs-china-ponzi-unwinds)

These two comments from the article nail it!

lordylord

"When I have to pay a $5 / OZ premium for physical then I will know the game has changed."

When people aren't taking dollars for silver, then the game has changed.


Dr. Engali

That's my point. If you don't own some before a disaster, it will be too late to get your hands on any after it happens. Because if and when disaster strikes, it will be fast and furious.

Same goes for silver and lead.  Gold might be barterable for big ticket stuff, but it will be silver that allows you to trade for necessities, and lead that will allow the transaction to be conducted fairly.

 ;)

Iv'e always liked that Dr. Engali

He is one of the sharper tools in that shed that's for sure.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 02, 2014, 07:54:06 AM
Jeez Louise!  You see the PM charts this morning?

The typical 8am monkey-hammering of gold & silver by the PTBs is a little too coordinated, their charts look damn near the same tick by tick!

These clowns are definitely not trying to hide their manipulation...

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 15, 2014, 08:00:57 AM
I like charts, these are kinda neat...

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140713_oil150_0.jpg)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-14/150-years-real-oil-prices (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-14/150-years-real-oil-prices)

And some more perspective on PMs & oil...

http://srsroccoreport.com/the-gold-oil-ratio-forecasts-a-much-higher-price-for-gold/the-gold-oil-ratio-forecasts-a-much-higher-price-for-gold/ (http://srsroccoreport.com/the-gold-oil-ratio-forecasts-a-much-higher-price-for-gold/the-gold-oil-ratio-forecasts-a-much-higher-price-for-gold/)

And look at the erratic EKG...

http://pricedingold.com/charts/Crude-1950.pdf (http://pricedingold.com/charts/Crude-1950.pdf)

...crap started going wonky about the time Nixon took us off the gold standard and handed the entire economy to the Fed!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 15, 2014, 07:34:54 AM
This article makes several good points and since silver has dipped below $20/oz again, that is usually my flag for looking at another puchase of some physical...as well as a boating trip...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-14/guest-post-top-7-reasons-buy-silver-now (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-14/guest-post-top-7-reasons-buy-silver-now)

Markups currently range from 4-15% on 1oz rounds, depending upon the quantity and method of payment...

http://www.apmex.com/category/25020/silver-rounds/all (http://www.apmex.com/category/25020/silver-rounds/all)

I usually buy no less than 20 and those markups range from 9-12%.

I say it is still a good buy.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 28, 2014, 07:04:47 AM
This is interesting but I find it somewhat crass of ZH to post an article that is basically an online version of an infomercial...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-27/what-next-gold-confiscation-will-look (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-27/what-next-gold-confiscation-will-look)

I like the idea of a Roth IRA gold position with physical protected in Switzerland...but...if the scat really hits the fan...how do I get it from there to here, or me from here to there...?

Not in the realm of the possible for most modest folks...what we have is bang sticks and the will to use them should anybody come asking for jack!!!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on September 02, 2014, 08:27:31 AM
Nothing we we didn't already know, but the cnetral banks are trading in commodities. (http://www.barnhardt.biz/2014/08/30/big-fat-told-ya-so-central-banks-trading-manipulating-all-markets/)

Warning, the link goes to Barnhardt's site, because as usual her analysis is dead on  ( and she is more fun)  If it bugs you click here to go to zerohedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-30/its-settled-central-banks-trade-sp500-futures)

Quote
Sooooo do you think that it is a tiny bit problematic for entities that PRINT MONEY to trade equity, currency and commodity markets?

Do you think it is problematic that an entity that can print theoretically infinite amounts of money IN ORDER TO MEET ITS MARGIN CALLS can trade massively leveraged markets?

Do you think it is problematic that entities that can stand theoretically infinite losses, who can print their way out of ANY position with effectively zero need to ever close out a position, and thus utterly destroy any connection whatsoever of the markets to REALITY, do you think that might just present a tiny bit of a market integrity issue?  Just a smidge??

I want someone to explain to me how honest cash-derivative basis convergence can possibly, possibly happen if one side of the market has an infinite supply of funds, and thus for whom the entire notion of “losses” becomes a complete irrelevancy.  Please.  I’m all ears.

I want to know how arbitrage can occur in that environment.

And perhaps THE ENTIRE POINT:

I WANT TO KNOW HOW ANY DERIVATIVE MARKET CAN POSSIBLY REMAIN SUBJECT TO ITS UNDERLYING CASH PRODUCT/COMMODITY IF THERE IS NO WAY TO FORCE PRICE CONVERGENCE BECAUSE ONE SIDE HAS AN INFINITE SUPPLY OF MONEY.

I WANT TO KNOW HOW THE CASH MARKETS ARE NOT THEN PERVERSELY DRIVEN AND THEIR PRICES “SET” BY THEIR DERIVATIVE MARKETS,  EVEN UNTO COMPLETE IRRATIONALITY AND UTTER DELINKAGE FROM REALITY, WHEN ENTITIES WHO CAN PRINT THEIR OWN MONEY ARE TRADING DERIVATIVES.

Food.  Energy.  Currencies.  Precious metals.  Interest rates.  Equities (stocks).

Now we know why these flash crashes happen.  Now we know how it is that super-massive orders and trades have wrought havoc on the markets – running stops and clearing everyone and everything on the other side out in quantities that surpassed the sizes of any possible private market participant.  Central banks.  You people are trying to trade against someone with an infinite supply of money.

 Which is why there is no longer something called an "investment"  - you can gamble in these markets, just like you do in Vegas,  but without real value being discovered by real buyers and real sellers,  who have to use real sweat and effort in trade,  you are just hoping your number comes up.  Material goods like gold, silver are not investments - they are shiny rocks. They are worth what shiny rocks are worth.  IN 2000 the yellow shiny rocks were "worth" around $300. Now they are worth $1300. In ten years they may be worth $1,000,000.  Only the Shiny rock is NOT gaining in value.  The Dollar is losing it.  You are not, therefore, "investing" - you are hedging.  You will end up holding about as much value as you originally put in.

The only real investments you can make now are in our own human capital and ability to produce - they are the only ones that might return more in value than what you put in.
 




Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on September 02, 2014, 09:06:06 AM
Quote
You are not, therefore, "investing" - you are hedging.

That's what I keep trying to tell people about shiny rocks, only I say it differently, "you're not 'making' money; you're storing some value.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 02, 2014, 11:41:59 AM
Which is why I mentioned in the "dollar" thread if we cannot get rid of the corruption, fraud and cronyism we are still marching toward the abyss....

But the fools (PTBs) think their games can last forever...at some point the currency destruction, the wealth destruction, the job destruction and trust destruction intersect and the whole thing implodes...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 09, 2014, 06:53:12 AM
I can hear Ann chuckling about this...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-08/these-kinds-market-rigging-practices-will-no-longer-be-allowed-cme (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-08/these-kinds-market-rigging-practices-will-no-longer-be-allowed-cme)

...as always, rigging has never been legal, but idiots think the next wave of laws, rules and regs will be "the fix" when all they are is PR window-dressing BS that at best makes the life of the average person more difficult!

The PTBs will still conspire and collude and make their mischief...maybe a few more lower-level lackies get sacrificed, no biggie, all for the greater good of the cabal...

 ::mooning::

ETA - Re: Cabal, see last link here! (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php?topic=7154.msg134897#msg134897)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: warpmine on September 09, 2014, 06:07:47 PM
I can hear Ann chuckling about this...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-08/these-kinds-market-rigging-practices-will-no-longer-be-allowed-cme (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-08/these-kinds-market-rigging-practices-will-no-longer-be-allowed-cme)

...as always, rigging has never been legal, but idiots think the next wave of laws, rules and regs will be "the fix" when all they are is PR window-dressing BS that at best makes the life of the average person more difficult!

The PTBs will still conspire and collude and make their mischief...maybe a few more lower-level lackies get sacrificed, no biggie, all for the greater good of the cabal...

 ::mooning::

ETA - Re: Cabal, see last link here! (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php?topic=7154.msg134897#msg134897)
Since ethics is something people had in centuries past, no new set of laws for the exchanges will ever correct what's the market lacks, humanity, justice and humbleness. These asswipes are only looking to earn, steal really, money as fast as they can to accumulate vast wealth of "things" before their neighbors can only make them envious. Hard work use to be rewarded once upon a time opposed to what we do now is reward criminals that destroy other people's wealth.

 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 10, 2014, 07:18:45 AM
I can hear Ann chuckling about this...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-08/these-kinds-market-rigging-practices-will-no-longer-be-allowed-cme (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-08/these-kinds-market-rigging-practices-will-no-longer-be-allowed-cme)

...as always, rigging has never been legal, but idiots think the next wave of laws, rules and regs will be "the fix" when all they are is PR window-dressing BS that at best makes the life of the average person more difficult!

The PTBs will still conspire and collude and make their mischief...maybe a few more lower-level lackies get sacrificed, no biggie, all for the greater good of the cabal...

 ::mooning::

ETA - Re: Cabal, see last link here! (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php?topic=7154.msg134897#msg134897)
Since ethics is something people had in centuries past, no new set of laws for the exchanges will ever correct what's the market lacks, humanity, justice and humbleness. These asswipes are only looking to earn, steal really, money as fast as they can to accumulate vast wealth of "things" before their neighbors can only make them envious. Hard work use to be rewarded once upon a time opposed to what we do now is reward criminals that destroy other people's wealth.

Step number 7 of this list that we are very deep into (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php?topic=12027.0)!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on September 10, 2014, 07:37:06 AM
http://live.wsj.com/video/zinc-shortage-causes-prices-to-soar-to-three-year-high/2DDCDEF9-EB8C-4083-BCBE-136FCA5E988C.html#!2DDCDEF9-EB8C-4083-BCBE-136FCA5E988C (http://live.wsj.com/video/zinc-shortage-causes-prices-to-soar-to-three-year-high/2DDCDEF9-EB8C-4083-BCBE-136FCA5E988C.html#!2DDCDEF9-EB8C-4083-BCBE-136FCA5E988C)

Let's keep making the worthless cent, because the stupid think they'll get ripped off if we as a society, start rounding to the nearest nickel.  Which is the same as rounding to the nearest cent in 1970.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 10, 2014, 07:48:08 AM
Yup, been watning that annoyance dumped for at least a decade and a half now!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 23, 2014, 11:43:57 AM
When the International Board of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) was launched last Thursday September 18 during an evening trading session, it was notable that the first transactions were put through by a diverse group comprising HSBC, MKS (Switzerland), and the Chinese banks,  ICBC, Bank of China and Bank of Communications.
 
MKS is the Geneva headquartered precious metals trading group that also owns the large PAMP refinery company in Switzerland.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-23/china-moves-dominate-gold-market-physical-exchange (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-23/china-moves-dominate-gold-market-physical-exchange)

Normally I would be "Huh, interesting, let's wait and see" but PAMP caught my eye, they are not an insignificant player in the physical PM market, this might have more impact up front than I initially thought.

And I agree with the sentiment that this is more about the Chi-Com's positioning themselves as preeminent manipulator without peer...when (not if) the U.S. shyts itself, not because of any noble interest in advancing the condition of the common man.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 09, 2014, 12:31:00 PM
Even with the pullback in PM prices...not all retail margins are all that great...

http://www.apmex.com/ (http://www.apmex.com/)

Gold has decent value to premiums once you get to 1/4 oz or 10 grams & higher.

Silver should be better bargain now with bid/ask below $18, but the premiums are kinda stinky until you get to the 100 Oz size (for 1 round) or at the 1 Oz size for 100 or more.

Interesting that Palladium at 1 Oz has a very low premium at the per Oz level, but you'll have to shell out in cash (ck/wire) in the low $800 range.

Platinum has never really been affordable for most folks.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 30, 2014, 08:01:32 AM
Hey, baby!  Silver getting monkey-hammered!

(http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=m5)

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5 (http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5)

Premiums on rounds are about 2% less than there were three weeks ago for rounds off 100 or more and 20 or more!

http://www.apmex.com/category/20000/silver (http://www.apmex.com/category/20000/silver)

 ::whoohoo::

My order just went in. 

Now, watch it drop some more, and tempt me again!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 05, 2014, 07:24:50 AM
Jesus, Mary and that other guy!!!  Didn't take long to grant that wish!!!


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-05/because-nothing-says-best-execution-dumping-15-billion-gold-futures-0030et (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-05/because-nothing-says-best-execution-dumping-15-billion-gold-futures-0030et)

These puppetmasters really never stop and can't hide for squat!

Fine, OK, idiots, I'll bite...another order please!!!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on November 05, 2014, 07:57:57 AM

Premiums on rounds are about 2% less than there were three weeks ago for rounds off 100 or more and 20 or more!

Yeah, if you don't own shiny rocks this may be a good time to get more.. but they are going to suppress the crap out of these going forward..as the charts show - they aren't even trying to hide it anymore.  Best execution, ha. .

the premiums on junk silver are the highest I have ever seen them.. $2.49/oz. ( and that is for the big bags..) It was under 20 Cents/oz before Obama...


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 05, 2014, 08:20:18 AM

Premiums on rounds are about 2% less than there were three weeks ago for rounds off 100 or more and 20 or more!

Yeah, if you don't own shiny rocks this may be a good time to get more.. but they are going to suppress the crap out of these going forward..as the charts show - they aren't even trying to hide it anymore.  Best execution, ha. .

the premiums on junk silver are the highest I have ever seen them.. $2.49/oz. ( and that is for the big bags..) It was under 20 Cents/oz before Obama...

I go for the 1oz rounds, less of a premium bite, but yeah, nowhere near as rosey as pre-Obola!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 10, 2014, 07:42:57 AM
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.' - Ayn Rand, 1966

H/T - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-08/gold-economic-freedom (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-08/gold-economic-freedom)

And the manipulators just keep getting away with it...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-09/what-happens-when-trying-get-bottom-ubs-gold-rigging-scandal (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-09/what-happens-when-trying-get-bottom-ubs-gold-rigging-scandal)

...surprised he didn't get suicided...maybe later?

Nice menacing name though, All Hail Flotron!   ::hysterical::

Get physical, screw the markets.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 14, 2014, 08:11:25 AM
Interesting read on how the PTBs manipuate paper gold to suppress the real thing...the best counter for which is to buy the real thing (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/paper-gold-and-its-effect-gold-price), something intelligent people know and a strategy that feeds into the hands of our enemies like China, and now Russia (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/putin-prepares-economic-war-buys-stunning-55-tonnes-gold-q3) is joining in on the fun.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: warpmine on November 17, 2014, 07:28:04 AM
Interesting read on how the PTBs manipuate paper gold to suppress the real thing...the best counter for which is to buy the real thing (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/paper-gold-and-its-effect-gold-price), something intelligent people know and a strategy that feeds into the hands of our enemies like China, and now Russia (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/putin-prepares-economic-war-buys-stunning-55-tonnes-gold-q3) is joining in on the fun.
Problem is it's getting harder to find the stuff. The reason probably rests with the fact that the suppression is keeping the real stuff from hitting the market. Who wants to mine something when it costs more to mine than to sell, it's basic economics. There was no ounce singles at the market this weekend and that says plenty.

The US mint has run out of domestic silver to produce Eagles and they must buy it within the confines of the USA. Besides, Eagles were still produced with the silver at $32/oz thus their high price compared to the spot price. Remember when prices of WTI crude went as low as $10/brl un the 90's? Those oil fields stop producing until price went back up to profitable levels. I'm sure the same thing is happening now with PM.

Even though fuel prices have lowered some, the cost of mining hasn't really changed all that much in terms of labor and machinery maintenance which is still higher because of the govt constantly f**king with the value of fiat currency. When will it all end?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 17, 2014, 07:50:32 AM
Interesting read on how the PTBs manipuate paper gold to suppress the real thing...the best counter for which is to buy the real thing (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/paper-gold-and-its-effect-gold-price), something intelligent people know and a strategy that feeds into the hands of our enemies like China, and now Russia (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-13/putin-prepares-economic-war-buys-stunning-55-tonnes-gold-q3) is joining in on the fun.
Problem is it's getting harder to find the stuff. The reason probably rests with the fact that the suppression is keeping the real stuff from hitting the market. Who wants to mine something when it costs more to mine than to sell, it's basic economics. There was no ounce singles at the market this weekend and that says plenty.

The US mint has run out of domestic silver to produce Eagles and they must buy it within the confines of the USA. Besides, Eagles were still produced with the silver at $32/oz thus their high price compared to the spot price. Remember when prices of WTI crude went as low as $10/brl un the 90's? Those oil fields stop producing until price went back up to profitable levels. I'm sure the same thing is happening now with PM.

Even though fuel prices have lowered some, the cost of mining hasn't really changed all that much in terms of labor and machinery maintenance which is still higher because of the govt constantly f**king with the value of fiat currency. When will it all end?

There is a rough equality of oil and mineral extraction costs and behavior, like wells, mines will be "capped" if market prices have dropped too low to support new production, and people in these industries are patient and not usually cavalier in their cash management, but the cost of malicious regulation and manipulation cannot be underestimated and the real cost most will see is the laying off of workers.  And since smart people (and governments) have been snapping up physical stocks, perhaps the situation I have been waiting for is starting to manifest itself - the drying up of physical stores availble for purchase.  Retail is the lower rung of the ladder, once institutional availability and then international/governmental availability is threatened, then we'll see something!  But it is hard to tell if this is a momentary blip.  I have seen this many times the past several years, and the PTBs will step aside a bit and let prices float back up to where production resumes and some physical flow commences.  Until the mines stay closed and physical inventories dry up, this will not end.



ETA - It is an interesting day in Gold news...

First, apparently The Fed (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-16/real-reason-why-germany-halted-its-gold-repatriation-ny-fed) put the 'ol brakes on Germany repatriating all their gold held in the US...the big unanswered question being...how much really is there left to them or anybody else?

Second, the Euro's are BSing about buying gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-17/ecb-says-may-buy-gold-stocks-next), what they are buying is more Neo-Keynesian BS!

Third, Gold Guru Eric Sprott seems to be thinking along my lines..."I think a true price recovery has got to come from the physical market first. When the mint says they don’t have any more silver coins, that's a good sign there’s more demand than supply. Maybe folks start figuring it out then.  To me, the biggest win will be if there is a delivery failure. If somebody says we were promised some gold we didn’t get it. And that could happen -- I mean we just can’t have China continue to buy 60 tons a week. That's impossible."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-16/eric-sprott-global-gold-demand-overwhelming-supply (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-16/eric-sprott-global-gold-demand-overwhelming-supply)

Yup.   ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 21, 2014, 07:56:02 AM
Huh.  The Dutch got 122 tons out of 33 Liberty...and Germany only got 5...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-21/gold-repatriation-stunner-dutch-central-bank-secretly-withdrew-122-tons-gold-new-yor (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-21/gold-repatriation-stunner-dutch-central-bank-secretly-withdrew-122-tons-gold-new-yor)

Well, sure...reduced inventory means the underground vault tunnel between the Fed and JP Morgan must be awfully damned budy keeping the shell game going!

Yah, your stash is here, says the Fed, see?!  Next day, yah, your stash is here, says JPM, see?! 

 ::hysterical::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on November 21, 2014, 09:07:41 AM
Premium on Junk Silver at APMEX today is $3.29/oz.  I have never seen it that high... andthe Treasury has no more Silver Eagles to sell.. but there is nothing to see here. Move along.

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 21, 2014, 10:25:00 AM
Big Bro - "Damn your eyes!"

Yeah, nothing to see here.

 ::unknowncomic::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 12, 2014, 07:37:58 AM
CME PM Circuit Breaker Plan (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-11/what-do-they-know-cme-implements-gold-precious-metals-circuit-breakers-400-wide)

 ::saywhat::

Is this better named the "let's bend over the PM producers policy"?

Seriously?  It would be justified and not the least bit hilarious to see some big players, burn through the rest of their capital and extract (for themselves) what they can, and then blow the whole operation up in a giant fireball and walk away!  Basically go Galt like Wyatt did in Atlas Shrugged!

It's hard to image what will make Ann Barnhardt go more nuclear, this CME stunt or the Cromnibus vote?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 17, 2014, 07:35:08 AM
Interesting story here...wealth and power, how big shots use inside info to beat profitable retreats...and the whole physical gold thing and establishing clear ownership of course...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/commodity-trading-giant-exits-physical-gold-due-lack-physical-documented-origin (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/commodity-trading-giant-exits-physical-gold-due-lack-physical-documented-origin)

Pretty simple moral to this story, hasn't changed since time began...if it isn't in your hand, it might not exist!!!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Glock32 on December 17, 2014, 01:07:34 PM
Yeah, in Barnhardt's words "if you can't stand in front of it with an assault rifle, it ain't yours."
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 17, 2014, 02:50:08 PM
Heh. I likey that one. 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 23, 2014, 08:15:52 AM
Intersting infographic on silver, stuff most people probably know but interesting to review.  My mother remembers her folks keeping silver dollars in rain barrels to keep it bacteria free.

(http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/silver-series-infographic-history1.jpg)

H/T - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-22/many-phases-silver-part-1 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-22/many-phases-silver-part-1)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 20, 2015, 08:30:28 AM
Germans, among others, repatriating more of their gold holdings.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/bundesbank-resumes-gold-repatriation-transfers-120-tonnes-physical-gold-paris-and-ny (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-19/bundesbank-resumes-gold-repatriation-transfers-120-tonnes-physical-gold-paris-and-ny)

Wonder where NY and Paris came up with it?  I'd check it for tungsten, just in case!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 13, 2015, 07:45:49 AM
I see  and I cannot help but wonder many things, like: 1-Is this physical acquisition or paper acquisition with a nebulous conversion feature?  2-Who is coughing physical up, besides Ukraine and other small players?  3-What if any real impact do paper purchases matter, beyond their manipulative effects that are designed to further aid the artifical bouyancy of equity markets and perpetual gaming of currencies?  4-If in fact large central banks have hoarded up stockpiles of physical gold, this would normally be a big flag indicating cross-market implosion and currency collapse, so are they preparing for that or for an end game of even worse implications?

OK, back to my bunker!   ::foilhathelicopter:: (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/central-banks-hungry-for-gold-bought-enough-for-75-dreamliners[these reports every so often of the central bankers hoarding up gold, getting gold repatriated from abroad[/url)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on February 26, 2015, 02:49:08 PM
Haven't checked premiums in a while...fricken 2-3 x's what they were two months ago!!!   ::cussing::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 27, 2015, 02:27:04 PM
Goldman yells "Peak Gold"!

But have we seen peak manipulation in the kabuki paper markets yet, that's the real question!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-27/peak-gold-goldman-calculates-there-only-20-years-gold-supply-left (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-27/peak-gold-goldman-calculates-there-only-20-years-gold-supply-left)

The good news appears to be peak uranium is nowhere near...and with everybody wanting a nuke, the future looks radioactively bright.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on April 23, 2015, 07:02:08 AM
The CFTC's latest casino tool - The Layering Algorithm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-22/dear-cftc-market-manipulating-spoofing-taking-place-e-mini-just-today (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-22/dear-cftc-market-manipulating-spoofing-taking-place-e-mini-just-today)

Hey, where can I get me one of those?

Whattaya mean not for sheeple use?  Who you callin' a sheeple?!

 ::rockets::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 15, 2015, 07:44:59 AM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/trouble-cash (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/trouble-cash)

Yup.  Pretty soon currency won't be worth a damn for anything other than wiping bottoms and starting fires.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 19, 2015, 07:35:04 AM
I guess weed is a commodity (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-18/mapping-marijuana-prices-us?page=1), even if it is not legally traded everywhere...

 ::pimp::

Hey, does Oregon do online sales?

 ::hysterical::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: ToddF on May 20, 2015, 07:33:15 AM
Legal weed still means paying about $4 per joint, assuming 60 per ounce (yes, I just looked it up.)

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on June 11, 2015, 01:14:23 PM
Under threat of trade retaliation from Canada and Mexico, the House has voted to to repeal a law requiring country-of-origin labels on packages of beef, pork and poultry. (http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150611/us-congress-meat-labeling-11265046c4.html)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 11, 2015, 01:21:47 PM
I guess I'd like to know if my meat is coming from some drug-cartel run sh*thole like Mexico or not...I have no (heh!) beef, with Canadian product...but we get enough illegal two-legged assholes from Mexico and I don't want to reward that one iota by letting in four-legged ones!!!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Pandora on June 11, 2015, 01:23:35 PM
I have no problem with Canadian product either .......... as long as I know it's from Canada.  I buy NOTHING from Mexico if I can help it.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: warpmine on June 11, 2015, 07:26:13 PM
We use to fund the govt using tariffs and that said we could impose them on drugs since majority come from south of the border. Mine the border and watch them bitch.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 10, 2015, 07:29:32 AM
Are Big Banks Using Derivatives To Suppress Bullion Prices?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/are-big-banks-using-derivatives-suppress-bullion-prices (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/are-big-banks-using-derivatives-suppress-bullion-prices)

Yes.

And derivatives pose an existential threat to just about everything.  For the PTBs, everything is gamed for the greater good...the greater good being anything that both keeps the illusion going and lines their pockets with other peoples wealth...

And with prices beat down again,http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-08/silver-craters-exhaustion-capitulation-or-opportunity-ahead (http://[url=http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-08/silver-craters-exhaustion-capitulation-or-opportunity-ahead)]especially in silver[/url]...buy it if you can find it!

There are availability issues and the premiums are not slight at present.  But I gotta go for it...

http://www.apmex.com/ (http://www.apmex.com/)

If this situation continues...something will have to give between actual on-hand inventory and manipulated prices...

 ::popcorn::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on July 10, 2015, 07:45:19 AM
Are Big Banks Using Derivatives To Suppress Bullion Prices?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/are-big-banks-using-derivatives-suppress-bullion-prices (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/are-big-banks-using-derivatives-suppress-bullion-prices)

Yes.

And derivatives pose an existential threat to just about everything.  For the PTBs, everything is gamed for the greater good...the greater good being anything that both keeps the illusion going and lines their pockets with other peoples wealth...

And with prices beat down again,http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-08/silver-craters-exhaustion-capitulation-or-opportunity-ahead (http://[url=http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-08/silver-craters-exhaustion-capitulation-or-opportunity-ahead)]especially in silver[/url]...buy it if you can find it!

There are availability issues and the premiums are not slight at present.  But I gotta go for it...

http://www.apmex.com/ (http://www.apmex.com/)

If this situation continues...something will have to give between actual on-hand inventory and manipulated prices...

 ::popcorn::


It starts with an earth quake, birds and snakes and airplanes. Lenny Bruce is not afraid.

Premium on junk silver at Apmex- $6. That was the spot price in 2000.  The spot price was lower through the entire 90s...  when this started in 2006 - the premium was 15-18 cents at APMEX...


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on July 15, 2015, 12:11:12 PM
Monkey + Hammer =

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-15/gold-silver-slammed-eurusd-plunges-109-handle (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-15/gold-silver-slammed-eurusd-plunges-109-handle)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-15/paper-gold-etf-tumbles-5-year-lows (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-15/paper-gold-etf-tumbles-5-year-lows)

Buy physical, damnit...take my order!!!

Quick math tells me that in the retail sector there is less premium compared to 100 1oz Silver rounds on gold from 1/4oz - 1oz and an ounce of Palladium, so they are really targeting silver buyers...the best deal you can get is to get 500+...and even then the premium is still two digits!

I might put a call into to the local coin dealer...see if he has become competitive on the premium front...ya never know...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 14, 2015, 07:49:37 AM
Another 19 tons of shiny for the PBOC...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/gold-jumps-after-china-reveals-it-bought-another-19-tons-july (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/gold-jumps-after-china-reveals-it-bought-another-19-tons-july)

...and they strengthened the Yuan slightly...

...meanwhile America wonders what will come next for Caitlyn...

 ::facepalm::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on August 14, 2015, 08:09:04 AM
Another 19 tons of shiny for the PBOC...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/gold-jumps-after-china-reveals-it-bought-another-19-tons-july (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/gold-jumps-after-china-reveals-it-bought-another-19-tons-july)

...and they strengthened the Yuan slightly...

...meanwhile America wonders what will come next for Caitlyn...

 ::facepalm::

I wonder how much of that 19 tons was bought with US Dollars from the china reserves?  Heck , they might have some deal where they are buying gold right out of of the Manhattan Vaults.  "Take these worthless treasuries back and give us gold for them or we crash the whole thing right now! "

Its should be noted that they are only admitting to having 1677 Tons of gold.  The US still claims to have over 8000 tons and stores most of the gold for Europe ( which would be another 6000 tons)  but really who believes those numbers? I also suspect China's number is higher as well. There is a reason everyone is working to repatriate their gold. Its also very interesting that the Fed will give the Netherlands back their gold but not Germany...





Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 14, 2015, 08:21:26 AM
Another 19 tons of shiny for the PBOC...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/gold-jumps-after-china-reveals-it-bought-another-19-tons-july (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/gold-jumps-after-china-reveals-it-bought-another-19-tons-july)

...and they strengthened the Yuan slightly...

...meanwhile America wonders what will come next for Caitlyn...

 ::facepalm::

I wonder how much of that 19 tons was bought with US Dollars from the china reserves?  Heck , they might have some deal where they are buying gold right out of of the Manhattan Vaults.  "Take these worthless treasuries back and give us gold for them or we crash the whole thing right now! "

Assuming 33 Liberty has any left...but yeah, the ChiCom's have us over a barrel more than anybody else, so if they say "drop 'em"...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 25, 2015, 09:48:06 AM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-25/gold-slammed-back-below-key-technical-support (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-25/gold-slammed-back-below-key-technical-support)

Prop up the dollar (with what, you ask tongue in cheek) and PM's get slammed.

http://www.apmex.com/ (http://www.apmex.com/)

Premiums are still fairly high, but having vs not having should carry more weight.

I want to snag some more Ag.  I like Pb too!   :D
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on August 28, 2015, 12:54:20 PM
Apmex has junk silver back in stock - -with a $6.49  premium per oz.
Whoa.

The bullion silver is behaving normally -  about $1.69  over spot - which is has been for a while.
 But, you see,  junk silver is TEOTWAWKI Money - easily recognized, known metal content, and already "money" in the fiat sense.
People may not impliclty see the value of a .9999 pure 1 oz Buffalo, but a 1950's quarter is much easier to translate ..


Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 30, 2015, 11:24:31 AM
True, but for the math-impaired assigning content-based value will require help, there will be a stupid tax on the ignorant.  A whole ounce should be easier to understand, but bartering will have to sort it through.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on August 31, 2015, 04:58:26 PM
And now -- $6.99/oz over spot for junk silver...

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 01, 2015, 06:54:26 AM
Must be Creed fans, eh?

Can you take me higher?
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on October 07, 2015, 08:24:00 AM


http://www.sharelynx.com/newsblog/index.php?post/2015/10/02/Silver-Coin-Premiums (http://www.sharelynx.com/newsblog/index.php?post/2015/10/02/Silver-Coin-Premiums)

(http://www.sharelynx.com/images/chartsdump/APMEXAGPremiums01a20151002.gif)

Meanwhile junk silver premium is down to a mere $5/oz  from $6.50 where it has been for weeks.
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 07, 2015, 10:08:53 AM
Uhh huh...

Well, it seems APMEX didn't get that news...

http://www.apmex.com/category/25820/90-silver-by-type (http://www.apmex.com/category/25820/90-silver-by-type)

I think there is a physical dynamic at play not reflected in the "official" price that is priced into premiums...

But hey, we knew that already or the Fedcoats wouldn't be manipulating things with paper and vapor!
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Weisshaupt on October 12, 2015, 02:54:19 PM
Demand for silver seems to be down on pot  smoking California beaches.

http://www.infowars.com/video-mind-controlled-morons-dont-even-understand-what-silver-is/ (http://www.infowars.com/video-mind-controlled-morons-dont-even-understand-what-silver-is/)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on October 13, 2015, 06:58:28 AM
Sadly, nothing about that surprises me...

Well, outside of the attempt and anybody expecting a different result...

 ::unknowncomic::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 30, 2016, 11:27:33 AM
Heh.  This confirms two things - 1) The Saudi's favor Putin's Russia over Obama's America and 2) all it took to improve economic prospects on most all fronts is to get Obama the bleep out!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-agrees-to-cut-output-by-1-2-million-barrels-a-day (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-agrees-to-cut-output-by-1-2-million-barrels-a-day)

The biggest driver of the Obama Depression, naturally is Obama! (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php?topic=2169.620)

 ::hysterical::

Come on Jan 20th!   ::asskicking::   ::whoohoo::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 08, 2016, 08:32:13 AM
I guess folks in India never heard of boating accidents...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-07/india-confiscates-gold-even-jewelry-raids-hidden-money (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-07/india-confiscates-gold-even-jewelry-raids-hidden-money)

...fair to say most probably haven't heard of boats either!  Still...

The elephant took it...monkeys ran away with it...

 ::)

And looking long behind the curtain of the kabuki masters...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/deutsche-bank-provides-smoking-gun-proof-massive-rigging-and-fraud-silver-market (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/deutsche-bank-provides-smoking-gun-proof-massive-rigging-and-fraud-silver-market)

...scheming and slamming and scamming, oh my!  And a lot more widespread than even the most jaded observer thought!

OK I don't buy that last part...I'm pretty damn jaded!  Hey, I wonder if Ann B has any opinion on this?  I bet she does!!!

And...ahh...they slam gold...and other stuff too ya know?! 
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 09, 2017, 11:29:35 AM
Huh?  Whaddaya know?

Purple Reign...with golden trim (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-09/prince-hoarded-cash-owned-67-10-ounce-gold-bars-when-he-died-avoided-stocks-and-bond).
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on March 02, 2017, 12:20:51 PM
At first I was like...huh?

http://www.apmex.com/product/22778/1-oz-gold-grain-shot-9999-fine-order-by-the-ounce (http://www.apmex.com/product/22778/1-oz-gold-grain-shot-9999-fine-order-by-the-ounce)

But in this form it has the lowest premium for content compared to ask price of anything in the 1 oz offering...and it would be easy to break off pieces for barter...

And probably harder to debase small pieces too, eh?  (I mean crack into a chunk, easy peasy!)

 ::thinking::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on May 09, 2017, 07:06:18 AM
Another "yeah, but...' moment...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-08/mining-ceo-explains-why-silver-could-reach-over-136 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-08/mining-ceo-explains-why-silver-could-reach-over-136)

Yeah, I like numbers, I get the 21:1 & 9:1 thing...but...in the end it comes down to available supply exchanging hands and the value people put on it...

When the kabuki implodes, and it will, and the great unwinding commences...we'll see what we'll see...

In the meantime, with current "market" prices coming down, another buying opportunity arises.   ;)
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on June 26, 2017, 11:25:17 AM
It always seems like the monkey-hammering happens around key Fed moments, eh?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-26/will-golds-tumble-continue-here-citis-answer (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-26/will-golds-tumble-continue-here-citis-answer)

Picking on the crypto's too...that could be just routine action though...whatever props up the greenback...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-26/bitcoin-tumbles-15-10-day-lows (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-26/bitcoin-tumbles-15-10-day-lows)

And the Yuan is down...merely a coincidence to be sure...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 30, 2017, 08:05:08 AM
Four years later...Germany finally got its gold back...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-30/weird-things-are-happening-gold (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-30/weird-things-are-happening-gold)

But the second bit of news, is , to say the least...weird -

Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just paid a visit to Fort Knox to see the U.S. gold supply. Mnuchin is only the third Treasury secretary in history ever to visit Fort Knox and this was the first official visit from Washington, D.C., since 1974.

The U.S. government likes to ignore gold and not draw attention to it. Official visits to Fort Knox give gold some monetary credence that central banks would prefer it does not have.

Why an impromptu visit by Mnuchin and McConnell? Why now?

The answer may lie in the fact that the Treasury is running out of cash and could be broke by Sept. 29 if Congress does not increase the debt ceiling by then.

But the Treasury could get $355 billion in cash from thin air without increasing the debt simply by revaluing U.S. gold to a market price. (U.S. gold is currently officially valued at $42.22 per ounce on the Treasury’s books versus a market price of $1,285 per ounce.)

Once the Treasury revalues the gold, the Treasury can issue new “gold certificates” to the Fed and demand newly printed money in the Treasury’s account under the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. Since this money comes from gold revaluation, it does not increase the national debt and no debt ceiling legislation is required.

This would be a way around the debt ceiling if Congress cannot increase it in a timely way. This weird gold trick was actually done by the Eisenhower administration in 1953.

Play games?  No!  Our leaders of unparalleled integrity and Neo-Keynesian mega-minds are beyond such tricks!

/

Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on August 31, 2017, 07:58:15 AM
 ::thinking::

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-30/gold-flash-crashes (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-30/gold-flash-crashes)

http://www.apmex.com/category/10002/gold-and-silver-top-picks?page=1&sortBy=mostpopulardesc (http://www.apmex.com/category/10002/gold-and-silver-top-picks?page=1&sortBy=mostpopulardesc)

...fiat pricing looking attractive...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on September 18, 2017, 12:31:47 PM
I guess somebody wants to open the buying window again...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/gold-tumbles-most-july-bitcoin-bounces (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/gold-tumbles-most-july-bitcoin-bounces)

...they'll be more bouncing going on...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on November 29, 2017, 09:49:37 AM
Fine, spank it more...I dare ya!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-29/gold-slammed-massive-volume-key-technical-support-gdp-beat (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-29/gold-slammed-massive-volume-key-technical-support-gdp-beat)

And...not sure where this came from...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-28/russia-warns-washington-confiscating-gold-reserves-would-be-declaration-financial-wa (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-28/russia-warns-washington-confiscating-gold-reserves-would-be-declaration-financial-wa)

...didn't know we were thinking of confiscation...though technically a "freeze" is not a confiscation per se, just a bank holiday dontchyaknow?!

Saying freeze=confiscation may not be a justification for declaring war by itself...can't help in combination with other things though...

But I don't see a freeze coming at this time...
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on December 04, 2017, 11:12:06 AM
More hammering...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-04/gold-shorts-plunge-5-year-lows (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-04/gold-shorts-plunge-5-year-lows)

Swing again!   :D
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: kermit on January 08, 2018, 05:21:59 AM
I haven't read through this thread, but I started at the first post....sliver around $40.

That's just about when I dumped a load of cash into it.....  ::doh::
Title: Re: Just commodities
Post by: Libertas on January 08, 2018, 07:23:41 AM
No worry...like that cat poster, just hang on.