Author Topic: Pollyanna Hoyt  (Read 1315 times)

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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2016, 06:28:35 PM »
From the comments section at the original article:


Quote
drdog09 | May 20, 2016 at 2:29 pm |

When the USD loses its reserve status your world will change Sarah. That .99c can of corn will cost $3 overnight. Why. There are three times as many USD in foreign markets than are in the US. When it all floods home prices will rise instantly.

    accordingtohoyt | May 20, 2016 at 3:06 pm |

    yes, and? That’s precisely the type of “slow slide” I expect. Have you seen prices in Europe and compared them to salaries. THAT’s what I’m talking about.


Tripling of food prices is more inconvenience.

The woman is delusional.   when prices change  overnight, its a "slow" slide,  presumably because  she thinks the can of corn will still be available on her store shelves, and her writing is really really good and will still sell in a world where everyone's food bill ( and presumably - everything bill) just jumped 300%.

Yes, Europe is ahead of us on the curve and only has not collapsed because the US has been bailing their banks out as well via Dollar swaps. - oh ,now we pay as much as Europeans do for their food. Its no biggie, European society hasn't collapsed. Now put on your Burka, hon, we are going out and we will visit Greece, Italy and Spain,  where the elderly are starving because they can't even collect their pensions so that can buy that can of corn..

I think its cute she thinks people's wages will increase in kind. Te govt will just raise the minimum wage and more people will supplement with food stamps.. only those will drive still more dollars home. Its not a 300%  increase once. its 300%  a YEAR, and anything the government does to"help" - price fixing, welfare etc will only make the problem worse. 

But say she was right - A long slow slide into the third world is still a slide in the the third world. Obviously something tat doesn't bother Ms.  Hoyt in the least - because she thinks its 30 years off, instead of 10. Oh well, she can find out the hard way .









« Last Edit: June 09, 2016, 06:44:54 PM by Weisshaupt »

Offline Libertas

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2016, 07:06:16 AM »
The main thrust of her argument seems to be "the USA is incomparable to any other examples, such as Argentina or Venezuela, because American ExceptionalismTM.  You doom mongers just have a weird apocalyptic fetish."

To that I say, guilty as charged.  I admit it.  I do want a collapse of sorts.  I don't know any other way that civilization might be freed of its infectious agents.  What is the alternative in Sarah's world?  That Third World immigrants and homegrown FSA soldiers will eventually tire of Leftism, and come around to their senses?  That "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today" will suddenly cease to be our national fiscal policy?  And that, somehow, it will cease to be fiscal policy without precipitating the sorts of things the "doom mongers" warn of?

It's choosing the long drawn out death in some (heh) pollyannish hope that somehow we'll all survive...vs forcing the issue earlier.  What she fails to realize is she is acquiescing the demise of what was at one time legitimately ExceptionalTM for something much less desireable in which all most certainly will not survive.  In a nutshell she is part of the problem not part of the solution. 

To Weisshaupt's take above, she obviously thinks a turd world America is better than trying to fight for something better.  I'll bet dollars to doughnuts now she realizes her error when it is too late...but by then I will not want to collect the bet in dollars because the doughnuts will be worth more.
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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #22 on: June 10, 2016, 01:09:23 PM »
.but by then I will not want to collect the bet in dollars because the doughnuts will be worth more.

There will be a whole case of donuts available.. but no bread.
I am still reeling from the idea that 300% inflation is "slow" , or that she thinks that somehow Americans, most of whom are living paycheck to paycheck and believe they are entitled to a whole slew of goods and services,  will easily adjust to "overnight" 300%  increases in fuel or food.



Yes,  Americans spend proportionally less on food than most other countries (http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/03/daily-chart-5)
and yes that is part of the "whole lot of ruin in a country" Hoyt talks about. But at the same time 75%  of Americans live Paycheck to paycheck (money.cnn.com/2013/06/24/pf/emergency-savings/)

So what are they spending money on? (http://www.thesimpledollar.com/a-look-at-the-average-american-budget-and-how-the-average-american-can-start-saving-more/)

Quote
From that amount, they spend $9,004 on transportation, $6,602 on food (of which $2,625 is spent at restaurants and $3,977 is spent on food eaten at home), $5,528 on insurance and pensions, $1,604 on clothes, $2,482 on entertainment, $17,148 on housing, $3,631 on health care, $1,834 on cash contributions (donations and legally required spousal and child support), and $3,267 on other expenditures.

The average household in this picture consists of 2.5 people, of which 1.3 are earning an income. An average household owns 1.9 vehicles and 63.7% are homeowners.

So how would an overnight ( 24 hours - to a few months)  300% inflation rate inconvenience this average family?

Rassmussen says  most people eat out once a week -  ) http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/general_lifestyle/july_2013/58_eat_at_a_restaurant_at_least_once_a_week)  so  obviously they stop doing that.  Lets say people eat out 1.5 times a week on average. With 2.5 people in your family, each eat out meal costs about $36 per household, while an at-home meal is around $4.  So if you stop eating out ( now setting up pressure on those businesses to fail..and their employees left wageless)   you can buy 9 more meals,  3 more days , but not eating out.  But now that $4 meal is $12-- and you need to spend $13104 on food.

Your wages haven't caught up - and you need to find an additional  $6502 in your spending to just eat  for the year. Well, cut out entertainment. No Cable. Not theaters. No sporting events.  Now you need $4020.  Well cut out that Miscellaneous category. Now we are just short $753.

Maybe that comes out of the $9004 you spend  on transportation - because you don't have a job anymore? You can sell the second 0.9 of a car anyway .
But how much of that $9004 is fuel? 

According to BLS  (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm)  which looks to be the source of the above articles' numbers.. Gas and motor oil come to $2611 or so, so a 300%  increase there means you need $7833 - or an additional $5222 a year just in Gas

Well, maybe you need to sell that 0.9  of a car and take fewer trips - you know, assuming you could car pool or don't have a second person that also needs to get to work. But you can't move into the city to eliminate a car completely - part of Hoyt's premise here is that the Burbs are the place to be! So selling that first car

The average gas consumed per vehicle is around 525 (http://www.autonews.com/article/20150325/OEM06/150329911/average-u.s.-gasoline-usage-lowest-in-3-decades-study-says) and like workforce participation, that is below 1984 levels.  Average gas price since the 1900 has been $2.36 in adjusted dollars. (http://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-gasoline-prices/) - and Gas just went up 300%  as well.   SO to fill the single  car you have left for a year?  $3717 - so an additional $1100  over what you used to pay for the "convenience" of two cars. But hey there is an additional $500  you get back form car insurance, so total amount over  is closer to $600. 

Then clothes - for adults they are optional, but Kids pretty much need them.  But lets say you cut back  buy and buy 1/3 of what you used to--. Clothing is a wash.

The Personal insurance and pensions category  is about the only place to steal from now.  Oops - sorry,  the BLS puts Social Security in  this category  which makes up about 75%  of the expense.  http://www.valuepenguin.com/average-household-budget.. but hey,  there is still $1000 to get from here if you forego life insurance for your family  in an ever more dangerous world.

So with one car, no entertainment, no assorted miscellaneous goods ( read  entropy expenses.), no eating out, no life insurance,    and foregoing new clothes you are just getting by.   Housing is probably a fixed price - mortgage is 30 year or you have a lease.  Insurance - Mandated by the government! - is $2200 or so but if you don't get sick, or just refuse to visit the doctor,   you can probably have around $1000 a year of discretionary income.

After all its all just an "inconvenience" - you are still eating. You still have a roof over your head.  Its a slow slide.

Only  this isn't over in a year.  As the restaurant and entertainment industries fail ( because people can't afford them)   how many more people are added to welfare rolls? http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm -- Just taking Retail  and leisure out results in 27 Million people unemployed - probably in that first year ( and that is assuming prices simply stay stale after that 300% increase)  - and will the government up the EBT payout to keep with inflation? If so, you are driving  even more printed money directly into circulation. Fail to pay enough however, and you will get the mass riots and societal breakdown - especially in the inner cities.  This of course begins the supply chain problems that prevent food from being delivered to the burbs. Wages will not rise commensurate with inflation , because so many are seeking work. They may even fall ( unless the government steps in to price fix)

It is also very unlikely that  there would be a 300%  increase and then stable prices.  The underlying factors driving the 300%  increase have no been addressed.  The government is still printing and spending.  You would be very likely to see increasing inflation on top of that initial 300% increase, until the system utterly collapses with more "inconvenience." The end result  - within years  of the initial and sudden increase, is a world in which very little is produced, and nearly 100%  of everyone's budget goes to food.  If you are a farmer and your government isn't stolen from you via Government force or gangs,  you actually are somewhat immune to the price increases, and though fuel is costly you can charge even more for food when it matures and goes to market to make up the difference.   In Wiemar, farmers made out fairly well.  IN Venezuela the military is seizing goats to eat them, so  maybe being a goat herder has some value if one can keep their goats safe from military action.  And that will bring us to the 300 million armed people in a desperate situation  and inevitable war "thing" 

Offline Libertas

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2016, 04:13:47 PM »
It is also very unlikely that  there would be a 300%  increase and then stable prices.  The underlying factors driving the 300%  increase have no been addressed.  The government is still printing and spending.  You would be very likely to see increasing inflation on top of that initial 300% increase, until the system utterly collapses with more "inconvenience." The end result  - within years  of the initial and sudden increase, is a world in which very little is produced, and nearly 100%  of everyone's budget goes to food.

Yup.

Then comes North Korea style cuisine...
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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #25 on: June 13, 2016, 11:17:49 AM »
Pah!  What vile propaganda is this?  Surely such an occurrence cannot happen in a civilized 21st century socialist utopia where the people come first?!

 ::hysterical::
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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #26 on: June 14, 2016, 08:57:36 AM »
without social media to aid it, barter might be an inconvenience

I love how the article  pretends that oil prices caused the crisis - no mention of socialist policies, nationalization of industries or price fixing, but tey are careful to make it known business is at fault

Quote
Maduro blames the crisis on an "economic war."

He accuses business of hoarding goods to provoke unrest in the hope of toppling his government.

Article also claims 80%  of food staples are in short supply.  Not that they are in sort supply in the cities and not in the burbs. But go on Hoyt. Enjoy your slow slide of inconvenience. After all - its not a "real" collapse until you are sitting around a campfire burning lumber from your home, wearing animal skins and using stone knifes to hunt. Until that happens its just an "inconvenience"

Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #27 on: June 14, 2016, 09:31:13 AM »
Because getting shot is an "inconvenience"

Quote
The state prosecutor's office is investigating the deaths of a 21-year-old man in eastern Sucre state on Saturday, another 21-year-old man in the Caracas slum of Petare on Thursday, and a 42-year-old woman in the western state of Tachira last Monday.

All three suffered gunshot wounds during chaotic scenes outside supermarkets, which have become a flashpoint for violence and looting amid scarcities of basics across the South American OPEC member country, according to local rights group Provea.

But hey look:  http://www.abasteceme.com/index.html

So  there are only ten or so products that this app finds, so maybe the shortages aren't "that bad" unless you need those products.
Diapers are not listed.




Offline Libertas

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2016, 11:21:40 AM »
The inconvenience will continue...

We're still a step behind...the "New Normal" conditioning phase...we'll get there soon enough thanks to statists, cronies, progs, freesh*tters etc...

Well...if the Islaminals don't get us first...
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Offline benb61

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2016, 05:16:44 PM »
If they can't afford food, how are they paying for the cell phone/smart device service??
something witty

Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #30 on: June 14, 2016, 11:09:27 PM »
If they can't afford food, how are they paying for the cell phone/smart device service??


Couldn't find a good answer.  ( But this was interesting -http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-22/iphones-as-hard-to-find-as-dollars-in-venezuela-during-oil-slump)

and this ( https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2015/venezuela) which says

"As of May 2015, however, 4G options were still limited to Digitel and Movistar and only available in a few cities. Most mobile subscribers still opt for a low bandwidth option (1 to 1.5 Mbps) because, at 3.5 percent of the minimum wage, these plans are almost half the price of mobile 4G plans,[41] which cost approximately 6 percent of the average monthly minimum wage.[42]  "

Which leads me to believe its # 5 of the possibilities below

1) they aren't
2) They share a single phone or use internet cafe or govt provided means of access (government does run largest ISP)
3) They do it at work ( don't you?) if they still have a job
4)  they have a fixed price contract not subject to inflation
5)  The government has priced fixed the cost of access to something affordable and since only big companies do cell  phone service , its easy to enforce.

But yeah,  if its cheap enough the phone becomes a survival tool. Call for help. Locate good and services. General information.  I think most of us would give up an internet connection only when we had to - even in a teotwawki situation - besides you can use them to do heart surgery in a black out

https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/4e6qlw/heart_surgery_made_in_venezuela_yesterday_with/


Offline Libertas

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #31 on: June 15, 2016, 07:03:41 AM »
Definitely #5, but #2 too, there has to be a lot of poaching going on...
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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #32 on: June 19, 2016, 04:21:48 PM »
Good news, only 87%  of Venezuelans are inconvenienced with being unable to afford food!

Quote
A staggering 87 percent of Venezuelans say they do not have money to buy enough food, the most recent assessment of living standards by Simón Bolívar University found.

About 72 percent of monthly wages are being spent just to buy food, according to the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis, a research group associated with the Venezuelan Teachers Federation. In April, it found that a family would need the equivalent of 16 minimum-wage salaries to properly feed itself.

meanwhile, outside of town...
Quote
Down the coastal road in a small fishing town called Boca de Uchire, hundreds gathered on a bridge this month to protest because the food deliveries were not arriving. Residents demanded to meet the mayor, but when he did not come they sacked a Chinese bodega.

One would think in a "fishing town" there would be fish to eat.

Quote
esidents hacked open the door with pickaxes and pillaged the shop, venting their anger at a global power that has lent billions of dollars to prop up Venezuela in recent years.

“The Chinese won’t sell to us,” said a taxi driver who watched the crowd haul away all that was inside. “So we burn their stores instead.”

Mr. Maduro, who is fighting a push for a referendum to recall him this year over the country’s declines, said it was the political opposition that was behind the attacks on the stores.

“They paid a group of criminals, brought them in trucks,” he said on Saturday on television, promising compensation to those who lost property.

At the same time, the government also blames an “economic war” for the shortages. It accuses wealthy business owners of hoarding food and charging exorbitant prices, creating artificial shortages to profit from the country’s misery.

It has left shop owners feeling under siege, particularly those who do not have Spanish names.

Hey Hawk, you changed your name when you emigrated right? Might want to do that if not.








« Last Edit: June 19, 2016, 04:28:13 PM by Weisshaupt »

Offline Libertas

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #33 on: June 20, 2016, 08:18:56 AM »
Oh man, that last quote made me chuckle...the freesh*tter mentality will die hard...

I heard the police down there are guarding bakeries, how Soviet is that?

 ::laughonfloor::
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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #34 on: August 05, 2016, 08:15:53 AM »
More inconvenience..

Quote
AILBAG: From longtime Instapundit/VodkaPundit reader Max Kohnke:

    This is not a joke nor even an exaggeration. I just found out that my sister in law’s other brother-in-law was arrested in Venezuela at the airport while trying to leave the country. His crime, he was an employee for a company that went out of business. Waiting for more? There isn’t any. Maduro has decreed that any business that goes out of business has committed economic treason and its employees are subject to arrest. They had already arrested numerous owners and managers but this is the first time they went after rank and file worker bees.

Yep, forced labor in the fields, soldiers confiscating meat from shops,  and starving people.  But I bet those middle class  people in the burbs are doing just fine.

Offline Libertas

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #35 on: August 05, 2016, 08:32:58 AM »
Jeesh.  What sheep.  How hard can it be for a bunch of them to break into a poorly guarded dilapidated armory get a bunch of guns and start shooting these assholes?  Candy-asses!  Hard to feel sorry for them, eh?
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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #36 on: August 11, 2016, 07:15:20 PM »
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-11/venezuela-has-one-choice-capitalism-or-chaos

Quote

I dream of a supermarket with fully stocked shelves. That usually happens after a long day of standing in line in the sun at a store, hoping for a delivery truck to arrive. Coffee and milk became luxuries for me a few years ago, but the really scary scarcity — of things like bread and chicken — hit my middle-class home at the beginning of this year. There was a week when I had to brush my teeth with salt.”

But Sara Hoyt promised that the middle class would only be "inconvenienced"
Ah, well, no one is killing them, so  not eating, standing in line when you should be working, and sporadic toothpaste is just an inconvenience.



Offline Libertas

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #37 on: August 12, 2016, 05:15:11 PM »
Sheeple have been conditioned to accept new and lower standards of living...everything is downgraded to merely an "inconvenience"...until it is no longer available at all, especially when needed the most.

Hilarious.  Might as well cue up now for the gallows.
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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #38 on: March 01, 2017, 09:42:24 AM »
And now, finally, Hoyt comes to the realization that, no,  there isn't a political solution

https://accordingtohoyt.com/2017/02/28/upside-down/

Quote
’ve talked about this, and the necessity to build under, build around, build over to take the weight of the structures that aren’t working.

But it wasn’t until this weekend and the conversations about last week that I GOT it.  It’s not just government.  If it were just government, it would be easy.  But the same stick hitting politics is hitting EVERYTHING from Hollywood to your local grocery store.  A lot of it is still being done the way it was ten years ago, sure, but that is probably incompetent, delusional, and quite likely hurting the business.

I know the establishment of publishing is mostly running around with its head in a sack, insisting it’s still night.  Their extended modified hangouts when from “Amazon is just a bookstore” to “Ebooks are inconvenient and the readers are expensive, it will never catch on” to “Ebooks are a thing of the past” (!) to now “those puny little indies aren’t threatening us, it must be people are reading less.  Red staters are so teh dumb.”

Know what else is a thing of the past that you make similar excuses for Ms. Hoyt? The Dollar.

Quote
This means that the leaders appear incompetent.  Really incompetent.  Crowds smell fear, like any wild animal.  The other things crowds do is notice failure, and the collapse and insanity of the press makes it hard for them to hide it.

Eight years ago people were sensing something was wrong.  Hiring Obama was part of this.  He was the dream-boat of the Marxists and everyone had been educated to believe Marxism (even when they weren’t told the name) was the way of the future.  I mean, it’s right there on the tin “progressive.”  It must be progress.  He had the education, he didn’t have experience in government but the media burned its last shreds of credibility to convince everyone he was a deep thinker.

Quote
But what it means in practical fact is that it’s fueling a vast tide of “populism”.  We can see that the people who are supposedly smarter and in charge really don’t get US much less the changes in what is happening around them.  They’re not taking things in account, they’re lost.  They don’t know what to do.

Let’s hope this tide is not a blood tide, though it will be, in some places, at some times.  It always is.  Man is a fighting ape.

That that mean you acknowledge that the "general f**kupedness" (to use  the approved grammar of your site)  is now exceeding the point where you feel blood will be the result? Gee Ms. Hoyt that seems pretty bloodthirsty of you - pointing out that the tyrants and their supporters will die  when the people realize the emperor has no clothes.

Quote
Because the confused and shell-shocked elites have started fighting back.  This is most obvious after the elections, and in politics, but it’s happening at all levels.  And because they don’t know why things are failing, they’re starting to get paranoid. There’s going to be a lot of deplatforming and politics of destruction ahead.  And that leads very easily to politics of physical destruction.

Be prepared.  Think about the future as well as you can.  This is difficult, on account of the future hasn’t happened yet, and there’s things you’ll not take in account and things that will go wrong.  Sure.  But you’re plenty smart enough to keep a step or two ahead of destructive change.  Most of us are.

You aren't one of them though. Everything is fine with your relatives  in  Venezuela, right? After all there is a lot of ruin in a country.  Here is the future Sarah : Those frightened elites are going to start a war overseas, and in trying to force the American people into fighting a war they don't want overseas they will spark a civil war here at home. During this the dollar will collapse, and its demise will be blamed on our enemies and not the economically disastrous polices that liberals have imposed. At that time, no one will have money to buy science fiction, and you will have to find other pursuits.  Learned any other skills yet? Maybe you should get on that  Miss "Smart enough"

Quote
Most industries/institutions/polities won’t get this.  You must try to save what you can from the wreckage, but be aware, too, that we’re about to go upside down.

Be ready for it.  Be prepared.  Don’t lose your way.  We’re going to need all the people who can think through this, plus some, to avoid a blood letting that will make the French Revolution or the American Civil war look like tea with the parish ladies.

Keep your head, keep your sanity.  Be not afraid

Welcome to the club of blood-thirsty seers.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2017, 05:27:58 PM by Weisshaupt »

Offline Libertas

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Re: Pollyanna Hoyt
« Reply #39 on: March 01, 2017, 11:56:59 AM »
Some people are just slower than others...
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