Author Topic: The Economy is Going to Implode  (Read 19905 times)

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Offline AmericanPatriot

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The Economy is Going to Implode
« on: November 11, 2012, 04:55:28 PM »

Offline Libertas

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2012, 09:05:21 PM »
OK, I'm finished with all these, ufda, what a ride!

Encourage all to watch, for those who haven't the time here is my summary -

Pt1-Mostly into stuff, what money is, what "fiat" means and what real custody of wealth is.  (Hint - it is not ones & zeros or any other easily devalued/taxed/destroyed medium)

Pt2-More on the preceding these, nice dig at Ron Paul & Paulbots - "Gold standard is still fiat", pop go the heads!

Pt3-Dude comes into the bank to get a loan wearing a t-shirt that says "What are you looking at dickface?", pretty much sums up who banks are forced to lend to by government force.  Doesn't matter where you bank at, the risk is systemic and pervasive, when runs hit nobody will have anything.

Pt4-Debt & GDP: "Economic treason", criminal meet wall and firing squad. Massive deleveraging is coming in one form or another.

Pt5-Deleveraging/ZIPR conundrum, the Cloward-Piven uptick timebomb-either ZIRP forever (good luck with that) or deleveraging and GDP crushing rate increases.  The criminal wealth transfer of ZIRP by "oligarch class" can only be defeated by default, secession or war (and any combination thereof), US is likely balkanization candidate.

Pt5 to Pt6-JPMorgan/GoldmanSachs CDS insurance scheme - Sell CDS to Bank A for 1% premium. If default JPM/GS gets bonds (salvage value), the SWAP (proxy put option).

JPM/GS protection racket-Bribes ISDA to never declare bond defaults, thus ensuring the premium whores keep the scheme going.  The forced government/bank extortion of the taxpayer is perpetuated by bank agents going to Central Banks to urge bailouts and stop defaults.  Doesn't buy into Paulbot "Rothschild" style conspiracy theories, sees them as a distraction from what is really going on.

REPOs-MF Global (psycho criminal Corzine)-Buy Nation A's national debt @ discount via 3rd party nation (everybody owns everybody's sh*t paper) so nation A can have fast cash and avoid bank runs, nation A agrees to buy back paper at full price (with newly printed fiat of course), so MFG gets juice on both ends.  Same applies for reverse REPOs.  MFG went apesh*t with reverse REPOs (GAAP allows them to be carried "off balance sheet", legalized fraud) and when collateral calls hit (like margin calls) time to pony up, but alas, no cash!  Corzine used customer account cash to payoff and this rat bastard roams the streets a free man when he should be convicted and shot at sunrise.  Corzine then goes to Fed discount window for ZIRP (0% cash) and uses it to buy more REPOs.  MFG gets CDS via JPM/GS making 2-4% spread.  (ZIRP: 90 day UST Bill was 5.11% 1/07, is 0.03% 1/12)

Pt7-CDS market:

JPM $1.8T assets with $78T CDS = 43x's leverage (at $15.5T GDP, leverage is 5x's GDP!)
Citi $1.2T assets & $56T CDS = 47x's leverage (3.6x's GDP)
BoA $1.5T assets & $53T CDS = 35x's leverage (3.4x's GDP)
GS=US Govt (Fed/Treas Agent) $89B assets & $48T CDS = 545x's leverage (3.1x's GDP)
Top 25 US $8.3T assets & $249T CDS = 30x's leverage (a6x's GDP)
Global CDS market = $1.5 quadrillion!
Not enough "haircuts" possible to reduce this much risk!

Where is the wealth?

*HFT (High Freq Trades aka Algo's) do 70% of all transactions & 99.9% of quotes (NANEX), they can go in & out in milliseconds (when we see flash crashes etc w/little or no volume it is the bots at work).  Can you survive in this environment?  EXIT NOW!

*Liquidity is dependent upon Algo's!

*Market breaks - A Balck Swan shocks result in Algo's putting the breaks on, basically there is no "market" or what Ann calls a "no bid" scenario, in seconds.  Envision a bank locking its doors.  NO MARKET!  GTFO NOW!

*Solution? - Open outcry execution, go back to electronic trades having to hit "the pits" with humans, and if you want to engage in arbitrage, get your qass on the floor and do it in person!  (Sensible, won't happen now, but a note for the post-collapse "rebuild" effort more than anything for her including it here.

Goes onto the whole unfunded liabilities issue ($222T on a 75 year horizon) and this is only growing worse.  Static? Ha!  Massive hyperinflation (tax) risk!  Critical mass.

Some discussion of healthcare, suggests a catastrophic/high deductible insurance only environment, POP price issue, allowed deductible plans to drive costs up.

Pt8-Whoa!  Goes off on pol's, mostly R's since the D's are complete asshat write offs anyway, she places a lot of blame on enablers in the other party, and I cannot discard that even though I may not agree 100%, still 75%-85% is still too damn high!

Basically all pol's suck, all are psychopaths...after this last election I cannot discard that out of hand either...

*Paul Ryan plan - no cuts (cuts in growth "he's lying!") and 5% GDP for 30 years?  

*Palin - Blew a great opportunity to use her pulpit, instead we got reality TV shows.

*Ron Paul - King of tokenism (my summation) - gold standard is still fiat and a distraction from core issues, and he's a antisemitic "batsh*t old man!".

*Bachmann- Raised $20m in campaign cash and was running for POTUS as a dual citizen (Switzerland).

*Allen West - Wants to raise a lot of cash and get wealthy, voted for: debt ceiling, Pigford, NDAA, Internet Kill Switch & monitoring, Libya arms for MB/AQ scheme.

Big finale - Bail on markets - inflation (tax) & confiscation coming, don't be a debt slave of the state.  Objective?  Wealth preservation (PMs).  Relocate?  Where?  NO place to run.  ChiCom plans to seize Aus/NZ after US collapse (I would argue our island holding, Hawaii et al too!).  An new "dark age" is coming.

What should we have?  Land, PMs, livestock, firearms, ammo, firearms, ammo, firearms, ammo, food, water & fuel.

Quo Vadis?
GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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charlesoakwood

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2012, 09:20:39 PM »

Very interesting, thanks for the rundown.
Got me thinking on that "where to" question.
Mountains are good, natural water supply a
must and not cattle but ... goats. 

Online Pandora

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2012, 09:34:24 PM »
Thank you, Libertas, for doing this.

Two questions:

What is ZIPR?

What is PMs?
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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Offline Libertas

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2012, 09:50:14 PM »
ZIRP is Zero Interest Rate Policy - Fed discount window for banks at 0% interest.

PMs = Precious metals.
GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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Offline warpmine

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2012, 11:14:56 PM »
Took exactly 100 years for this to happen when central banking usurped the responsibilities of the Congress. ::laserkill::
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Offline AmericanPatriot

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2012, 11:52:35 PM »
Just finished this and Libertas is 100% on with his summary.

I'm a little overwhelmed.

Hard to be Pollyanna after watching this and knowing how true it is

Online Pandora

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2012, 12:37:51 AM »
Just finished this and Libertas is 100% on with his summary.

I'm a little overwhelmed.

Hard to be Pollyanna after watching this and knowing how true it is

Whulp, no problem with the Pollyannas -- they just refuse delivery of the information.  I'm seeing it with my own eyes.
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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Offline Libertas

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2012, 06:27:34 AM »
Took exactly 100 years for this to happen when central banking usurped the responsibilities of the Congress. ::laserkill::

Yes, and the Fed became the dominate entity after the 1951 Accord "The Accord" -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1951_Accord

Oddly enough Martin screwed Truman over and refused to keep monetizing debt (printing, what we now call "Ctrl-P"), from 1913 to 1951 the Fed was primarily concerned about interest rates and inflation, after Martin took over the added concern of "economic stability" was added to the mandate.  This should have been our first clue that somewhere down the line the uncontrollable beast would refuse its masters orders.  And the BS about the Fed being answerable to Congress not Presidents is laughable!  Where is the last independent audit of the Fed?  I have no idea?  Is there any gold left in Ft.Knox?  Nobody is saying?  Gold at 33 Liberty?  No depositor (I think Germany was the last to ask) has been granted physical access TO THEIR OWN ASSETS.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_McChesney_Martin

Treasury is the Fed's beoch and the Fed answers to no one except nominally to Presidents and the Senators who confirm their terms...not exactly stand up people, know what I mean?

This little farce can only end one way, and they are not going to deviate from the script.  The level of pain coming cannot be understated, it will be globally epic and if we fare better than the Romans did when they fell I would be truly amazed.
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Offline Libertas

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2012, 02:34:39 PM »
Ever since the election the sucking sound has increased in decibels...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-15/goldmans-swirlogram-confirms-economic-slowdown#comment-2985457

As Slim Pickens said in Dr. Strangelove "Yeeee Haaaaaaaa!"!
GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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charlesoakwood

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2012, 02:52:50 PM »

"No depositor (I think Germany was the last to ask) has been granted physical access TO THEIR OWN ASSETS."

Jawohl, there is a big push by the Bosch to inventory
all their gold, they have repatriated some from England
and talking of same from the US.  Krauts are getting itchy.




Offline Libertas

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2012, 07:58:21 AM »
So, will we be like Argentina?  Zimbabwe?  Something worse?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-02/anatomy-end-game-part-2-variations-problem

It's not that they are out of bullets per se, it's that the bullets carry less and less weight...

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charlesoakwood

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2012, 11:33:25 AM »
Something's coming, that's for sure.  As far a "shadow banking" ... heck, it's difficult enough to understand what's going on with official banking.


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Offline Libertas

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2012, 11:37:11 AM »
Fed/Treas - Making that balance sheet more toxic every second!

MOAR!!!   ::evil::

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/fed-exit-plan-may-be-redrawn-as-assets-near-3-trillion.html
GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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TeachX3

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2012, 01:22:44 PM »

What should we have?  Land, PMs, livestock, firearms, ammo, firearms, ammo, firearms, ammo, food, water & fuel.


ugh.  I need money.  My husband is right now on his way to the IRS office, to hand over an extremely large check for last years taxes that we have been saving all year long to pay.  MAN!  I sure would love to not give them that check.   ::gaah::

TeachX3

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2012, 01:50:06 PM »

ugh.  I need money.  My husband is right now on his way to the IRS office, to hand over an extremely large check for last years taxes that we have been saving all year long to pay.  MAN!  I sure would love to not give them that check.   ::gaah::

HAHAHAHA!  So, he walks into the office.  There is NO other people in there but the two men workers.  He walks up to the desk and is told he has to take a number and sit down.  He does so and sits and listens to the two men talking about their plans for this evening... one is going out to dinner with his family, the other, going home and relaxing.  Minutes later, one of the men YELL "number 900!"  ROFLOL  My husband said, "I was sitting right in front of him and the ONLY one in there!  Still he felt in necessary to scream out my number"    ::cussing::  government workers.

Offline LadyVirginia

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2012, 04:24:05 PM »

ugh.  I need money.  My husband is right now on his way to the IRS office, to hand over an extremely large check for last years taxes that we have been saving all year long to pay.  MAN!  I sure would love to not give them that check.   ::gaah::

HAHAHAHA!  So, he walks into the office.  There is NO other people in there but the two men workers.  He walks up to the desk and is told he has to take a number and sit down.  He does so and sits and listens to the two men talking about their plans for this evening... one is going out to dinner with his family, the other, going home and relaxing.  Minutes later, one of the men YELL "number 900!"  ROFLOL  My husband said, "I was sitting right in front of him and the ONLY one in there!  Still he felt in necessary to scream out my number"    ::cussing::  government workers.

hahahaha

I once watched 5 DMV employees "move" a hanging sign that read "Line forms here".  Actually one guy moved it and the others watched including one guy who got up from his desk to join them.  I also saw 6 state highway employees fill one pot hole.

When things get really bad I don't think these people will be able to even function.
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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2012, 05:15:00 PM »

ugh.  I need money.  My husband is right now on his way to the IRS office, to hand over an extremely large check for last years taxes that we have been saving all year long to pay.  MAN!  I sure would love to not give them that check.   ::gaah::

HAHAHAHA!  So, he walks into the office.  There is NO other people in there but the two men workers.  He walks up to the desk and is told he has to take a number and sit down.  He does so and sits and listens to the two men talking about their plans for this evening... one is going out to dinner with his family, the other, going home and relaxing.  Minutes later, one of the men YELL "number 900!"  ROFLOL  My husband said, "I was sitting right in front of him and the ONLY one in there!  Still he felt in necessary to scream out my number"    ::cussing::  government workers.

hahahaha

I once watched 5 DMV employees "move" a hanging sign that read "Line forms here".  Actually one guy moved it and the others watched including one guy who got up from his desk to join them.  I also saw 6 state highway employees fill one pot hole.

When things get really bad I don't think these people will be able to even function.

I'm almost sorry to say it, but GOOD.  What we'll not need if things go bad is a bunch of people, milling around, not knowing what to do to help themselves, complaining because no one else is doing it ala Katrina.

Long time ago, before my brother opened his own auto-repair shop, he worked as "maintenance" for a north-Jersey school system.  He ended up having to quit because the other guys went to the boss and complained my brother was making them look bad -- he was doing the job.  The teachers loved him because the repair and maintenance work got done and the light bulbs got changed and they didn't have to wait weeks for it to happen.

I was listening today to a podcast that included a newsclip of the people in Staten Island reaming out FEMA because in spite of the promises made, FEMA has been pretty much missing in action.  Also included was the fact that Staten Island NY reliably votes Republican, which goes some way to explaining to me why they've been left hanging by the Thug From Chicago.
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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Offline Libertas

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2012, 11:27:23 AM »
We'll be yelling "NEXT!" as a spent shell is ejected.  Last word.
GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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charlesoakwood

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Re: The Economy is Going to Implode
« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2012, 07:36:35 PM »
OK, I'm finished with all these, ufda, what a ride!

Encourage all to watch, for those who haven't the time here is my summary -

...

Where is the wealth?

*HFT (High Freq Trades aka Algo's) do 70% of all transactions & 99.9% of quotes (NANEX), they can go in & out in milliseconds (when we see flash crashes etc w/little or no volume it is the bots at work).  Can you survive in this environment?  EXIT NOW!

*Liquidity is dependent upon Algo's!

*Market breaks - A Balck Swan shocks result in Algo's putting the breaks on, basically there is no "market" or what Ann calls a "no bid" scenario, in seconds.  Envision a bank locking its doors.  NO MARKET!  GTFO NOW!

...

...
  An new "dark age" is coming.

What should we have?  Land, PMs, livestock, firearms, ammo, firearms, ammo, firearms, ammo, food, water & fuel.

Quo Vadis?


A Five Minute Example of HFT Shenanigans or
SkyNet for $$$$.
[/i]

 
Quote
Some serious issues are highlighted in these few minutes of activity:

1) Inability for market participants to access a quote.

2) Excessive quote pollution as HFT algorithms battle each other.

3) Market fragmentation can lead to inferior execution.

4) HFT penny jumping can discourage market liquidity.


I think this is an understatement.