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Sign up now and register your guess as to what the March NICS number (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20120301_TotalNICSBackgroundChecks.pdf)will be.
The person closest to the actual number gets High Praise!
I personally am going with 1,850,242.
Of course, the actual result might depend on the Supreme Court outcome. Or it may already be priced in.
On Intrade they appear pessimistic. (https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=745353)
I know I can't submit. I don't know I have the guts to stop paying taxes altogether, but I will become self-sufficient enough to not owe any federal income taxes, and I will do everything I can to minimize SS and Medicare by incorporating. I may even incorporate and then pay myself in gold and silver Eagles and report the face value as my wages. One way or the other I am leaving the system and going Galt. Hell, I may just apply for all of these social programs and bleed the system more. This cannot last. The monetary system will collapse, or hyper inflate, and will do so in the next 10 years. All we need to do is help it along, and defend our own homesteads. There will come a time when IRS agents trying to collect (by confiscating livestock or other property - as they did with the Amish (http://www.amishnews.com/amisharticles/amishss.htm)) will simply be shot and fed to the pigs. And when police come to evict or arrest, they will be shot too. Obama can try and spin that however he wants, but in the end you are taking the food and property from the "poor" and people that just want to be left alone, and that never plays well.
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I think there is a chance to break 2m!
PS-I doubt the Gubmint is stocking up on .40cal simply because they got a good deal!
;)
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Due to no one else but Libertas and I playing, I am forced to award myself "High Praise"
I am not sure where the info comes from, since the FBI hasn't posted the number yet, but the truth about guns (http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2012/04/robert-farago/march-fbi-nics-background-checks-surge-20/) reports the March number was 1,715,125.. up from 1,449,720 last year. I will post again if the official FBI data (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics) differs. That is 4.8 Million NICS checks for the first Quarter of 2012. If this keeps up 18-20 Million for the year is a realistic expectation. Nothing to see here. All is well.
Anyway, I kinda hope more people play in April..
UPDATE: Official Number reported at the FBI: 1,727,881 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/04032012_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf)
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Sorry guys; not a gambler.
Indian name: "Plays with scared money".
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Well since it costs nothing to play and the prize is "High Praise", its not really gambling is it? Is more just guessing.
However, It might be an interesting way to fund the forum... (void where prohibited by law of course. At my work, you pay in "fun points" which seem to look a lot like dollars when I have seen them....)
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Well since it costs nothing to play and the prize is "High Praise", its not really gambling is it? Is more just guessing.
However, It might be an interesting way to fund the forum... (void where prohibited by law of course. At my work, you pay in "fun points" which seem to look a lot like dollars when I have seen them....)
Naw, the cost is not the issue. For some, like me, it just goes against the grain. TAANSTFAAFL - that; dig?
I'll wager on a planted crop; on the roof that mayn't leak; on the chicks that may not hatch. On man's schemes? Not so much.
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April Ncis number: 1,562, 384
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Sorry guys; not a gambler.
Indian name: "Plays with scared money".
Should change that to "Honey, give me $20". ;D
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April Ncis number: 1,562, 384
You are probably in the right neighborhood, historically the end of the year has been running high for both firearm sales and permits, but it seems to be running higher in all months over last year, so there might be a slight down-cycle to the growth going into summer and a runnup in the fall into the end of the year.
I'll predict April at 1,601,103.
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Sorry guys; not a gambler.
Indian name: "Plays with scared money".
Should change that to "Honey, give me $20". ;D
Like she needs to ask.
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How about another contest of sorts? We should have a running contest to see who can expend the most rounds of ammunition in target practice or tactical training, or just shooting at beer cans for that matter.
Practice makes perfect!
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And Predator Don gets HIGH PRAISE!!! for his guess of 1,562, 384 ::cool::
The Official NICS count for April was 1,427,343 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/050312-1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) up 76000 year over year.
Over 6 Million checks already in 2012
Okay - Now taking guesses for May 2012 -- Get yours in Now and prepare to earn HIGH PRAISE! ::danceban::
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And Predator Don gets HIGH PRAISE!!! for his guess of 1,562, 384 ::cool::
The Official NICS count for April was 1,427,343 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/050312-1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) up 76000 year over year.
Over 6 Million checks already in 2012
Okay - Now taking guesses for May 2012 -- Get yours in Now and prepare to earn HIGH PRAISE! ::danceban::
I want to thanks all the little people....with guns.
May forcast: 1,316,953,,,,,, an 86k uptick from May of 2011.
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Congrats Predator Don!
My SWAG for next month is 1.35m - a modest decline but still strongly in the category of "brisk" :D
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Congrats Predator Don!
My SWAG for next month is 1.35m - a modest decline but still strongly in the category of "brisk" :D
Ok...Who is gonna be the wiseguy to choose a number one more or less than our educated guesses..... ::rolllaughing:: ::whatgives::
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Well, I donno about guesses - but I have done my part to add to the May numbers as I bought a new 'toy' yesterday. ::thumbsup::
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Ok, so this guess thingy - lessee...how about 1,447,875.
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Well, I donno about guesses - but I have done my part to add to the May numbers as I bought a new 'toy' yesterday. ::thumbsup::
Don't leave us hanging here; what did you get?
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LINK (http://gunblast.com/KelTec-RFB.htm)
The Kel-Tec 7.62x51mm RFB Bullpup is what I bought yesterday. I'm sure looking forward to getting it out on the range and poking some holes in some targets. ;D
RFB in action (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Xqa2vwq60#)
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And I look forward to your report of first impressions. I really like the forward ejection.
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Here is what's on my shopping list. (http://www.ruger.com/products/lcp/models.html)
Two of them.
His and hers with concealed carry holsters.
Factory equipped with laser sight.
Should be picking them up within the next month.
A week from tomorrow I'm going here (http://www.nrawc.org/) with my rifles and about a thousand rounds.
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Here is what's on my shopping list. (http://www.ruger.com/products/lcp/models.html)
Two of them.
His and hers with concealed carry holsters.
Factory equipped with laser sight.
Should be picking them up within the next month.
A week from tomorrow I'm going here (http://www.nrawc.org/) with my rifles and about a thousand rounds.
Cool! ;D You'll have to let us know how the shoot goes. ::thumbsup::
And I look forward to your report of first impressions. I really like the forward ejection.
I'll start up a different thread for it and let you know how the range time goes. So far I'm very pleased - it has really good balance, tracks well, etc. Already field-stripped it and lubed it up so I could get familiar with its functions before heading to the range. Will keep you posted.
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Here is what's on my shopping list. (http://www.ruger.com/products/lcp/models.html)
Two of them.
His and hers with concealed carry holsters.
Factory equipped with laser sight.
Should be picking them up within the next month.
A week from tomorrow I'm going here (http://www.nrawc.org/) with my rifles and about a thousand rounds.
Nice!!! Hope you're saving the brass.
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I'm going with a friend who will taking a long range Lapua rifle. I can't remember exactly what it is but I'm thinking it's a Barrett .338
Should be quite an experience.
I don't have anything that exotic. I will be taking both of my carbines (the Ruger and the Panther) and my S&W I-Bolt.
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Predator Don wins HIGH PRAISE AGAIN!
The official NICS number was 1,316,226 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf)
Predator DON missed it by ONLY 727 with his guess of 1,316,953! There are 727 slackers out there who didn't get their guns bought.
Who will dare to Challenge Predator Don in next month's pool?
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Predator Don wins HIGH PRAISE AGAIN!
The official NICS number was 1,316,226 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf)
Predator DON missed it by ONLY 727 with his guess of 1,316,953! There are 727 slackers out there who didn't get their guns bought.
Who will dare to Challenge Predator Don in next month's pool?
And yes, like barack obama, I will post thier names for ridicule. They are marked and I will dig up dirt on each one of the slackers. How embarrassing. I shouldn't have missed so badly.
June: Not quite the jump as before 1, 823,332
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Predator Don wins HIGH PRAISE AGAIN!
The official NICS number was 1,316,226 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf)
Predator DON missed it by ONLY 727 with his guess of 1,316,953! There are 727 slackers out there who didn't get their guns bought.
Who will dare to Challenge Predator Don in next month's pool?
bump
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Predator Don wins HIGH PRAISE AGAIN!
The official NICS number was 1,316,226 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf)
Predator DON missed it by ONLY 727 with his guess of 1,316,953! There are 727 slackers out there who didn't get their guns bought.
Who will dare to Challenge Predator Don in next month's pool?
Bump again cause I like reading.
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It's going down just like Obama is going down.
1,227,342
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I'm just consistently way too high, I have an over-inflated opinion of the wisdom of the American people, that's all on me I guess. I'll adjust down 400k from my last month entry and go with 1,201,103 for May.
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1,097,363
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1,243,308
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Sorry guys; not a gambler.
Indian name: "Plays with scared money".
Should change that to "Honey, give me $20". ;D
Like she needs to ask.
For real. At my house, that's my line.
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And Glock32 gets HIGH PRAISE!!! for his guess of 1,243,308 ::cool::
The Official NICS count for June was 1,302,660 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/070512_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) up 134,338 year over year.
Almost 9 Million checks at mid year.
Now taking guesses for July 2012 -- Will the Obamacare decision have a significant impact on the number? Last year was 1,157,041
Get yours in Now and prepare to earn HIGH PRAISE! ::danceban::
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::clapping::
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I feel so honored! ::curtsy4::
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1,299,753. I didn't like losing my crown.
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1,317,553
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1,396,762
I think in light of the Supreme Court treachery, and as the election draws nearer, these numbers will go up again.
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Predator Don wins HIGH PRAISE AGAIN!
The official NICS number was 1,316,226 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf)
Predator DON missed it by ONLY 727 with his guess of 1,316,953! There are 727 slackers out there who didn't get their guns bought.
Who will dare to Challenge Predator Don in next month's pool?
Let me be the first to:: ::kiss-my-ass::Yours of course.
Bump again cause I like reading.
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Good job G!
I'm a pendulum, can't find the middle... (insert bad joke here)
So I'll go higher and say 1,451,376.
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I'll give it a go for July. I say 1,372,698. machinegun
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Predator Don is back on top! His guess of 1299753 is off by only 951! High Praise Again!
This is Predator Don's second guess with an error less than 1000. Its almost like he is getting a hold of the numbers before me and changing his bet! (Just kidding)
Official number was 1,300,704 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/080112_1998_2012_Monthly_Yearly_Totals.pdf) up 12% from 1,157,041 last year.
It would appear that the Obamacare decision had little impact on the numbers, as last month's growth was 11.5%
It would appear those who are capable of waking up, have already done so.
Taking bets for August.
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Predator Don is back on top! His guess of 1299753 is off by only 951! High Praise Again!
This is Predator Don's second guess with an error less than 1000. Its almost like he is getting a hold of the numbers before me and changing his bet! (Just kidding)
Official number was 1,300,704 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/080112_1998_2012_Monthly_Yearly_Totals.pdf) up 12% from 1,157,041 last year.
It would appear that the Obamacare decision had little impact on the numbers, as last month's growth was 11.5%
It would appear those who are capable of waking up, have already done so.
Taking bets for August.
I must give credit to obama....I was a slightly off until....what did Obama do to spike guns sales this month?
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Congratulations!!!
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I'm predicting a slight downtick this month, partly because school is beginning and I believe the spike in the middle of July will effect August numbers. After August, as we get close to Nov, we will uptick again.
AUGUST: 1, 267, 212
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I'm as bad at this as Don is good... ::facepalm::
Congrats Champ, you keep your crown.
Aug - 1,090,936.
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Don, do you have an in with someone at BATFE?
My guess for August is 1,285,702.
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Delta Force wins HIGH PRAISE in the August Pool - His guess of 1,285,702 was closest to the official number of 1,526,206
Another significant uptick fomo last year's number of 1,310,041 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/09042012_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals-1.pdf)- its up 16.5%
With the election coming up, I suspect the September and October numbers are going to be hard to predict - but comeon everyone, give it a try.. Last years Number for September was 1,253,752
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1,402,240.
I think it'll be up.
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1,198,927
They will continue to decline throughout the election cycle.
If he wins they will skyrocket. If he loses and does some-
thing funny, to the moon Alice, to the moon.
ETA: Congratulations, DF.
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Congrats DF! ::USA::
I'll predict a new high for September, an even 1,300,000. October cuold be squirrely.
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1,189,320 for september
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1,198,927
They will continue to decline throughout the election cycle.
If he wins they will skyrocket. If he loses and does some-
thing funny, to the moon Alice, to the moon.
ETA: Congratulations, DF.
!
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1,373,426........
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Mkay, I'm getting in.
1,274,076
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Could bode well for higher numbers.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48943733 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/48943733)
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Glock32 wins HIGH PRAISE in the September Pool! - His guess of 1,402,240 was closest to the official number of 1,459,363
Pretty Darn Close!
Yet another significant increase - total for the year now tops 13 million. (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2012_Monthly_Yearly_Totals%201.pdf)
Now lets try October... Will Mitten's slam dunk at the debates cause a drop? Will Pre-election jitters drives sales? Are people just hunting? Last years Number for October was 1,340,273, and it was 1,183,279 in 2008. Get your guess in!
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Congrats G! ::thumbsup::
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Who would have thought a guy who calls himself Glock would get so close..... Congrats.
It's re fleshing to know, WTSHTF, so many are armed.
I must give this number some thought. I'm waiting until the debates are over.
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Well I do enjoy relishing high praise!
I think the numbers will continue to go up, even if Romney gets more momentum. Let's say 1,471,000.
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Well I do enjoy relishing high praise!
I think the numbers will continue to go up, even if Romney gets more momentum. Let's say 1,471,000.
Sure sure you do. But you're starting to piss me off with all this humble crap. I know you just love being right.
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::thumbsup::
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O'Gee, it's fish or cut bait: 1,502,000.
Just saw this: (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/10-2/20121031_RGR_0.jpg)
This chart showing Sturm, Ruger's quarterly revenues
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Damn, CO beat me to it! ;D
Here's the link -
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/chart-day-sturm-rugers-revenues (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/chart-day-sturm-rugers-revenues)
Looks like a bullish impetus for October! How's an even 1.5m sound?
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Charles Oakwood wins HIGH PRAISE in the October Pool! - His guess of 1,502,000 was closest to the official number of 1,614,032 edging out Libertas by a mere 2000
Yet another significant increase - total for the year is now 14.8 Million, with October up 20% over last year. (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2012_Monthly_Yearly_Totals%201.pdf?)
Get Your guesses in for November... Will a Mittens win cause a drop? What if Obama wins? Will Sandy convince liberals in New York and New Jersey that owning a gun is a good idea? Last year's November number was 1,534,414.. Extra Special Bonus High Praise will be awarded if your guess is made before the outcome of the election is known!
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High praise to CO!
(http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff269/halo707/Forums/Smilies/thBowNotWorthy.gif)
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High praise to CO!
(http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff269/halo707/Forums/Smilies/thBowNotWorthy.gif)
!!!!!
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Thanks, and thanks to Barry for his unsurpassed arrogance scaring the bejeepers out of the American people. I fully expect to see each of these purchasers voting a straight REPUBLICAN ticket this coming Tuesday. Cheers!!
(http://www.nssf.org/share/images/PR_NICS_Adjusted_1080.jpg)
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::facepalm::
Even with good late-breaking info I miss out!
::bashing::
We'll that what I get for picking a round number!
;D
Congrats CO, you da man!
::thumbsup:: ::beertoast:: ::USA::
As for November, we'll have to see how the election goes, might not see a lot of a drop if Mitt wins, people might think their right to carry could be strengthened, and there is those rioting libiots to fend off...on the other hand, if Obama steals this thing (he cannot win it straight up, cheating and stealing is all he has to pin his hopes on) November and December could be blowout months.
Again. well done Charles! ::thumbsup::
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I believe the jump in numbers is based on two things: romney will win, resulting in riots. Romney loses under a cloud of voter fraud, resulting in riots.
If I'm correct, the number will continue to rise.......so I will not wait for election results.
1,762,423
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Well some moonlighting cash came in and I'm eyeing that Glock 21 again... :-* Early Christmas present for me in November? Yeah, icanhaz that! ::whoohoo::
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There's bonus points for pre-election prediction win, isn't there?
1,618,000
I'm liking Libertas jump theory.
Whoops! Make that Don's theory.
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We all goin' in pre-election, I likes it! 1,699,961.
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As they say at the theaters....go big or go home.
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2,700,000
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I say it's going to be close to 3 million. We are in uncharted territory now. Who doesn't think he's making a big play against the 2nd Amendment now? And adding 2 or 3 new justices to the Supreme Court who will view it with utter disdain?
What's the saying? "If it's time to start burying them it's time to start using them."
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I say it's going to be close to 3 million. We are in uncharted territory now. Who doesn't think he's making a big play against the 2nd Amendment now? And adding 2 or 3 new justices to the Supreme Court who will view it with utter disdain?
What's the saying? "If it's time to start burying them it's time to start using them."
I kinda hope you're right...in that it would mean more people getting with the program....
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Thinking the same last night as I tossed and turned in my bed...
I'm upping my prediction, it will be over 2m this month...
I'll up my prediction to 2,374,696.
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I say it's going to be close to 3 million. We are in uncharted territory now. Who doesn't think he's making a big play against the 2nd Amendment now? And adding 2 or 3 new justices to the Supreme Court who will view it with utter disdain?
What's the saying? "If it's time to start burying them it's time to start using them."
Of course, if you buy at gun stores, there is a paper trail. Never bought at a gun show. Is there a paper trail there?
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I say it's going to be close to 3 million. We are in uncharted territory now. Who doesn't think he's making a big play against the 2nd Amendment now? And adding 2 or 3 new justices to the Supreme Court who will view it with utter disdain?
What's the saying? "If it's time to start burying them it's time to start using them."
Of course, if you buy at gun stores, there is a paper trail. Never bought at a gun show. Is there a paper trail there?
Yes there is.Here they fill out all the forms but if you have cc you take it home. But there are always people selling privately and that's up for grabs,but you don't know what you're buying. There are ways to cover your tracks if you really need to.
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Pretty much all of mine have a paper trail, but they try to come get them, they're gonna have to contend with the business end.
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Pretty much all of mine have a paper trail, but they try to come get them, they're gonna have to contend with the business end.
Run an add and sell them all.If you get my drift.You aren't required to do paperwork are you?
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Pretty much all of mine have a paper trail, but they try to come get them, they're gonna have to contend with the business end.
Run an add and sell them all.If you get my drift.You aren't required to do paperwork are you?
Then I am back where I started, needing new guns. ::falldownshocked::
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Pretty much all of mine have a paper trail, but they try to come get them, they're gonna have to contend with the business end.
Run an add and sell them all.If you get my drift.You aren't required to do paperwork are you?
Then I am back where I started, needing new guns. ::falldownshocked::
You're not reading it right,pay attention to the wording.
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It's also unfortunate that your boat capsized with all those rifles aboard. Talk about an unlucky turn of events.
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Oh, just like my unfortunate boating accident with my precious metals...yeah, damn shame that.
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It's also unfortunate that your boat capsized with all those rifles aboard. Talk about an unlucky turn of events.
I hate that when that happens.
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I had a fire where I store my weapons. Lookie over there...see the charred remains? Those pieces of metal, what's left of my guns.
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And no I don't have the serial numbers they were not insured.Now I have to buy new ones someday. Boy you don't need a building to fall on you before you get it.
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And no I don't have the serial numbers they were not insured.Now I have to buy new ones someday. Boy you don't need a building to fall on you before you get it.
You pick'n on me again JF?! ::pokeineye::
OK, I was tired last night, didn't get much sleep the night before so yeah, the cpu was a bit slow and my ram is shot... :P
Wise guy! ::slapfight::
;D
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Bullish!
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/finally-some-good-economic-news-gun-makers-see-sales-boom-after-election/ (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/finally-some-good-economic-news-gun-makers-see-sales-boom-after-election/)
Nefariously bullish!
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/hours-after-obama-victory-us-backs-un-arms-treaty/ (http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/hours-after-obama-victory-us-backs-un-arms-treaty/)
::cussing:: Obama! Gun-grabbing statist bastid!
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Require the same NCIS to purchase ammunition, that would be consistent.
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Obama set for another Gun Salesman of the Year award -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9670585/US-guns-sales-soar-after-Barack-Obamas-re-election.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9670585/US-guns-sales-soar-after-Barack-Obamas-re-election.html)
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I've been thinking about storing some cosmoline as a last resort. Anybody with experience?
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I have lots of experience cleaning guns out of cosmoline, none putting them in. It melts at about 130 degrees, so most arsenals that are preparing firearms for long term storage simply dip them completely into liquid cosmoline.
My idea has been to get sections of PVC pipe and put screw caps on the ends, with a rubber seal. Combined with a preservative coating like cosmoline, I would think that would provide good protection.
Of course, there's always the saying "when it's time to bury them, it's time to use them".
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I have lots of experience cleaning guns out of cosmoline, none putting them in. It melts at about 130 degrees, so most arsenals that are preparing firearms for long term storage simply dip them completely into liquid cosmoline.
My idea has been to get sections of PVC pipe and put screw caps on the ends, with a rubber seal. Combined with a preservative coating like cosmoline, I would think that would provide good protection.
Of course, there's always the saying "when it's time to bury them, it's time to use them".
"when it's time to bury them, it's time to use them"
And that's the name of that tune.
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DIY SHTF Long Term Vacuum Sealing Moisture Protection of Weapons Cache (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMH-_IFywR0#)
Use a good bearing or axel grease and pack it away as shown I would not use it on anything not made of metal.
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November going to be BIG month!
“Thank you, President Obama.”
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/some-more-good-econ-news-colo-gun-store-owner-claims-sales-have-quadrupled-since-the-election/ (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/some-more-good-econ-news-colo-gun-store-owner-claims-sales-have-quadrupled-since-the-election/)
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More predictable and bullish news -
http://www.infowars.com/black-friday-gun-sales-hit-new-record-high/ (http://www.infowars.com/black-friday-gun-sales-hit-new-record-high/)
November's rockin'!
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Yup, looks as if Don's going to do it again.
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Yup, looks as if Don's going to do it again.
And I don't know if I should be happy or sad.
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More Black Friday backstory...NCIS getting stressed out...
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/did-black-friday-gun-sales-cripple-fbis-background-checking-system/ (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/did-black-friday-gun-sales-cripple-fbis-background-checking-system/)
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Google search trend:
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/11-2/20121130_bulkammo.png) (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-30/according-google-trends-what-more-popular-ammo-bulk-ammo)
Click image for link
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Yup, looks as if Don's going to do it again.
And I don't know if I should be happy or sad.
High Praise with extra bonus Praise for being right before the election is always a joyous occasion!
Predator Don wins super duper Bonus High praise for his guess of 1762423, being under by 244496. Yes, the number was 2,006,919 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20121203_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) , a 30% Year over Year increase. total for the year has now exceeded last year at 16,808,538.. Last Year's December number was 1,862,327-- who is up for guessing the Yearly total?
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Congratulations Don, on your skilled observation.
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I got confused - was the contest to guess the number of new NICS checks or new jobless claims? Either way it doesn't say much for stymie and his band of bozos.
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The trick of boiling the frog is to do it slow enough that he doesn't realize it's happening. Does he have enough time to do this with the bitter clingers?
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Yup, looks as if Don's going to do it again.
And I don't know if I should be happy or sad.
High Praise with extra bonus Praise for being right before the election is always a joyous occasion!
Predator Don wins super duper Bonus High praise for his guess of 1762423, being under by 244496. Yes, the number was 2,006,919 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20121203_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) , a 30% Year over Year increase. total for the year has now exceeded last year at 16,808,538.. Last Year's December number was 1,862,327-- who is up for guessing the Yearly total?
My fellow Americans, I take no pleasure UNDERESTIMATING the destructive force called obamanomics. Fortunately for us, the Mayans did not create a calender predicting our demise but it was a crude calculator. So be of good cheer, the end is near.
In case we are still alive come December 31st and I can afford my internet connection....My prediction:
1,862,327 x 1.36 = 2,532,764 + 144,592 = TOTAL ESTIMATE 2,821,948
Yes, 36% growth plus the difference between my November estimate and the actual number.
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Wow, so Santa's sleigh to be chock full of thundersticks?!
::whoohoo::
All Hail Don!
::bows::
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So say we all.
Tags: Just commodities (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,913.400.html)
"Fiscal cliff" - "Walk Away" Gaining Steam (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,7281.0.html)
Time to Move On From the GOP? (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,7188.160.html)
U.S. Embassies under attack -- UPDATES (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,6732.0.html)
Obama Regime Sends US Troops to Jordan/Syria Border! (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,6931.20.html)
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Wow, so Santa's sleigh to be chock full of thundersticks?!
::whoohoo::
All Hail Don!
::bows::
With ammo sales at what they are.....I'm probably still underestimating.
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Bullish!
http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/smith-wesson-posts-48-increase-second-quarter-sales-demand-surges-all (http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/smith-wesson-posts-48-increase-second-quarter-sales-demand-surges-all)
I'm gonna go for an even 3,000,000 this month! Tis the season, the month, the right time!
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Heh, I was thinking about it this morning.
How many more can be bought? Even though articles say it's standing room only at gun shows my number is a low ball, 250,000.
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Bullish!
http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/smith-wesson-posts-48-increase-second-quarter-sales-demand-surges-all (http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/smith-wesson-posts-48-increase-second-quarter-sales-demand-surges-all)
I'm gonna go for an even 3,000,000 this month! Tis the season, the month, the right time!
Ongoing strategic execution of their plan? Sorry smith and Wesson, but no planning on your part can compare to the salesmanship of Barack Obama.
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Bullish!
http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/smith-wesson-posts-48-increase-second-quarter-sales-demand-surges-all (http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/smith-wesson-posts-48-increase-second-quarter-sales-demand-surges-all)
I'm gonna go for an even 3,000,000 this month! Tis the season, the month, the right time!
Ongoing strategic execution of their plan? Sorry smith and Wesson, but no planning on your part can compare to the salesmanship of Barack Obama.
::thumbsup::
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Heh, I was thinking about it this morning.
How many more can be bought? Even though articles say it's standing room only at gun shows my number is a low ball, 250,000.
We have our last one of the year in Bloomington 29th & 30th. I might have to stop in. ;D
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Well, all you guys guessing add one for me, I dropped a grand last Friday for mine.
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I'm guessing the gun shops are currently in the process of running out of AR-15s and similar weapons, and particularly accessories and ammo.
I've been thinking seriously about bolstering everything, as well as buying some kind of tactical shotgun. The Remington 870 is a fine weapon, but I want something for indoor home defense.
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What could be better than an 870? I mean it's a toss-up between it and the Mossberg 500 but those two are the 2 most serviceable 12-gauge shotguns that I know of. To the point that I would reach for my 870 before I did my Saiga or my 1100.
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I'm guessing the gun shops are currently in the process of running out of AR-15s and similar weapons, and particularly accessories and ammo.
I've been thinking seriously about bolstering everything, as well as buying some kind of tactical shotgun. The Remington 870 is a fine weapon, but I want something for indoor home defense.
You have one right there,just add #4 buck and you're golden.
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Two things are certain; Don's estimation is low and he is the winner. If he could only help other businesses as well.
Ø
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I too can be added to the list. Bought an AR-15 this morning. Last one in the store. Guy ahead in line bought 4.
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What could be better than an 870? I mean it's a toss-up between it and the Mossberg 500 but those two are the 2 most serviceable 12-gauge shotguns that I know of. To the point that I would reach for my 870 before I did my Saiga or my 1100.
Well, my 870 is really set up perfectly for bird hunting. Rather than modify it, I'd rather just get something new for home defense. The first thing I would consider would be an 870 tactical.
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Were I in the shotgun market, I think I'd be looking for a Mossberg 590 Marine. Right now I've got a Winchester 1300 Defender and it is everything I want in a defensive shotgun. It has the smoothest action of any I've used. I think they quit making them unfortunately.
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Well, all you guys guessing add one for me, I dropped a grand last Friday for mine.
::thumbsup::
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I too can be added to the list. Bought an AR-15 this morning. Last one in the store. Guy ahead in line bought 4.
::thumbsup::
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What could be better than an 870? I mean it's a toss-up between it and the Mossberg 500 but those two are the 2 most serviceable 12-gauge shotguns that I know of. To the point that I would reach for my 870 before I did my Saiga or my 1100.
Well, my 870 is really set up perfectly for bird hunting. Rather than modify it, I'd rather just get something new for home defense. The first thing I would consider would be an 870 tactical.
Well it doesn't take anything to open the choke and put a magazine extender on it for home use - good to go! ;)
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December looks to be really rockin'!
According to Susan Medina with the CBI, the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) is experiencing similar volume to CBI’s InstaCheck numbers.
http://denver.cbslocal.com/2012/12/17/cbi-deals-with-massive-influx-of-potential-gun-buyers/ (http://denver.cbslocal.com/2012/12/17/cbi-deals-with-massive-influx-of-potential-gun-buyers/)
::cool::
There is a definite ski-jump shape to the trends!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-17/two-charts-matter-smith-and-wessons-december-investor-presentation (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-17/two-charts-matter-smith-and-wessons-december-investor-presentation)
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At the Risk of Being Redundant ...Predator Don wins High praise for his guess of 2821948 being over by , being over by just 38183! .
Yes, the number was 2783765 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20130102_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) , a total of 19,592,303 for the year 2012. I somehow suspect multiple guns where purchased on a lot of these.
So, is there any interest in continuing this game in January, or should we just crown Predator Don the undisputed winner and supreme NICS Stats prognosticator extraordinaire?
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While I don't wager (guess) I find tracking the steadily rising stats interesting. For what that's worth.
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At the Risk of Being Redundant ...Predator Don wins High praise for his guess of 2821948 being over by , being over by just 38183! .
Yes, the number was 2783765 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20130102_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) , a total of 19,592,303 for the year 2012. I somehow suspect multiple guns where purchased on a lot of these.
So, is there any interest in continuing this game in January, or should we just crown Predator Don the undisputed winner and supreme NICS Stats prognosticator extraordinaire?
Lets keep it going...It is the only sanity left in my life. Plus, i'll go ahead and put my number out there so someone can go one under and one over my estimate.
The question is....will we cross the 3 million plateau. Since my wife has requested a triggerless 38 caliber for our ANNIVERSARY ( honey, are you all right?) I say yes.
3,038, 426
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Depending on how much of the recent sales tsunami is reflected in the December numbers, the January numbers could be very high indeed. I think it will crack 3 mil.
I say 3,230,000.
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At the Risk of Being Redundant ...Predator Don wins High praise for his guess of 2821948 being over by , being over by just 38183! .
Yes, the number was 2783765 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20130102_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) , a total of 19,592,303 for the year 2012. I somehow suspect multiple guns where purchased on a lot of these.
So, is there any interest in continuing this game in January, or should we just crown Predator Don the undisputed winner and supreme NICS Stats prognosticator extraordinaire?
Lets keep it going...It is the only sanity left in my life. Plus, i'll go ahead and put my number out there so someone can go one under and one over my estimate.
The question is....will we cross the 3 million plateau. Since my wife has requested a triggerless 38 caliber for our ANNIVERSARY ( honey, are you all right?) I say yes.
3,038, 426
Of the 38 revolvers (internal hammer, still need the trigger!) I have I like my S&W 638 w/crimson trace, but my sister liked my Ruger LCR so much she went and bought one and she can out shoot me with that thing!
http://www.smith-wesson.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/Product4_750001_750051_764944_-1_757767_757751_757751_ProductDisplayErrorView_Y (http://www.smith-wesson.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/Product4_750001_750051_764944_-1_757767_757751_757751_ProductDisplayErrorView_Y)
http://www.ruger.com/products/lcr/models.html (http://www.ruger.com/products/lcr/models.html)
I guess I'll undercut Don and go for an even 3 million for January.
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That Marine shotgun is stainless isn;t it? And that S&W model 64 with a round butt is cute. ::curtsy4::
Triggerless, giving Diane more ideas, eh?
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And that S&W model 64 with a round butt is cute. ::curtsy4::
Never took you for a butt man. ::laughonfloor::
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Only the round one's. ::applerump:: :)
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It's the "assman". ::laughonfloor::
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That Marine shotgun is stainless isn;t it? And that S&W model 64 with a round butt is cute. ::curtsy4::
Triggerless, giving Diane more ideas, eh?
Yep, it's stainless. Or maybe nickel plated. Either way, highly corrosion resistant.
The Mossberg 500 Mariner:
(http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff269/halo707/Forums/Mossberg_500_Mariner_zpsa35365ee.png)
The Remington 870 Marine Magnum:
(http://www.remington.com/~/media/Images/Firearms/Shotguns/Model-870/Model-870-Marine-Magnum/870marine_mag-prod.ashx)
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Cool gun porn! ::danceban::
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Libertas wins HIGH PRAISE for his guess of 3,000,000!!!
Yes, the number was 2,495,440 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20130205_1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) , a decrease of around 10% from last month, an increase of 81% year over year.
Wonder if the number is lower because there isn't enough stock to meet demand? Or maybe prices are just so high now its suppressing sales? Or maybe people are just buying 3 guns per check.
I like the theory that Obama is just making sure we are armed for the space alien invasion....
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Whaaa...? ::saywhat::
I overshoot and still win?
Yeeeesssss!
::bustamove::
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Libertas wins HIGH PRAISE for his guess of 3,000,000!!!
Yes, the number was 2,495,440 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20130205_1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) , a decrease of around 10% from last month, an increase of 81% year over year.
Wonder if the number is lower because there isn't enough stock to meet demand? Or maybe prices are just so high now its suppressing sales? Or maybe people are just buying 3 guns per check.
I like the theory that Obama is just making sure we are armed for the space alien invasion....
I believe supply couldn't meet demand.
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(http://i242.photobucket.com/albums/ff269/halo707/Forums/Smilies/thBowNotWorthy.gif)
Good work!
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::thumbsup::
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With the libiot full court press against the 2A going on in January, the blind squirrel will stick with 3 million.
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::searchingforproductioninformation::
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With the libiot full court press against the 2A going on in January, the blind squirrel will stick with 3 million.
Someone else has to guess or Libertas will win next month by default. We can't let that happen two months in a row can we?
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I think it will go down, not due to diminished demand but diminished inventories. I'll go with 1,980,000.
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2,652, 100
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In lieu of December and in consideration of those cases of "NRA good" Mosin–Nagants I saw online the magic number of 2,500,000 ought to do it.
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I guess it's time for me to guess... 2,750,000.
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I'm in for 2mil 800K,I don't think supply has anything to do with permits. You don't need a gun to get a permit.
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I'm in for 2mil 800K,I don't think supply has anything to do with permits. You don't need a gun to get a permit.
Sure John, just top me by 50k. ;)
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I'm in for 2mil 800K,I don't think supply has anything to do with permits. You don't need a gun to get a permit.
Sure John, just top me by 50k. ;)
::dueling::
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I'm in for 2mil 800K,I don't think supply has anything to do with permits. You don't need a gun to get a permit.
I thought these numbers were based on NICS checks. Is it something else?
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::saywhat:: Should be NICS.
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::saywhat:: Should be NICS.
Yeah, the POOL is based on the raw NICS number. NICS IS checked for Concealed Carry in many States.. So a place like Utah will show about 400X more checks than it should because it has one of the best reciprocal carry arrangements - and therefore people travel there to get their CC permit.
So this number is a combination.. its all NICS checks regardless of end purpose. It doesn't tell you how many guns are sold, it could be 3 per check. It could be a denial.
Its a proxy number for the number we really want to know..
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Charles Oakwood wins High praise for his guess of 2,500,000 being over by 190,607!
the number was 2,309,393 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20130205_1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) and this time I think we know for sure its a shortage in supply
Thanks to everyone who participated - we had more guess than ever before this go round.! So Great Job CO is beating out the competition!
Okay lets get the new round of guesses going ....
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I'm in for 2,550,000, I know a lot of guys want to buy if they can find what they want.
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Thank you, Weisshaupt, I only wish and should have known at his election that the most certain investment would be in the arms business.
I wonder if they are going to start running out of guns as they are ammunition?
Back to the calculator.
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Good work CO.
For the next month, I'll go with 2,020,000.
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Well, my glory faded fast, oh well. Good job CO! ::thumbsup::
I'll take 2,100,000 this time.
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I'll let it ride, 2,500,000.
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1,902,000
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Libertas wins High praise for his guess of 2,100,000 being under by 209,407!
the number was 2,209,407 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-033113.pdf) slightly down from last month- about 100,000 . I expect an increasing number of people to acquire weapons via private sale or simply illegally - just because they want no record of their purchase, and they have already decided to make you a criminal. . Over 70 Million checks have been performed during Obama's term (http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/70291049-background-checks-gun-purchases-under-obama) - but remember - Obama will never take your guns!
If the current average rate for 2013 remains at 2,338,000 a month , there will be over 28 MILLION checks just this year alone, although one could argue the rate is trending downward- about 4-7%- Even then, if rates contue to trend downward at 10% a month, there will still be 19 million checks. If we take the historical average month to month growth/decline of 2009-2012 the rest of 2013 should look like:
April 1998718
May 1744805
June 1689965
July 1711232
August 1897887
Sept 1889451
October 2124607
November 2298283
December 2829581
Giving us a total of 25 Million checks in 2013 to add to Obama's 70 Million in his first term
Okay Guess accordingly - who is up for giving us the right number for April?
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::whoohoo:: Two-time winner! ::bustamove::
I think it will go up, we see the unsanity going on in CT & CO, UN BS, it is going to escalate, I'll up the number a bit to 2,525,000 this month.
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I'll take 2,360,000.
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Put me down for 2,375,000.
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::whoohoo:: Two-time winner! ::bustamove::
I think it will go up, we see the unsanity going on in CT & CO, UN BS, it is going to escalate, I'll up the number a bit to 2,525,000 this month.
Hey, don't get cocky.... 2, 399,717
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The manufacturers are maxed out, I'm in for 2,000,000.
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http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/fbi-conducting-32-gun-purchase-background-checks-minute-under-obama (http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/fbi-conducting-32-gun-purchase-background-checks-minute-under-obama)
...assuming only one gun per check was purchased.
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Mfg's might be maxed out but production is going somewhere, I say the ka-ching factor keeps them humming and people keep on buying, it's all about the urgent appetite now, and Obama & the rest of the gun-grabbing demonazis will keep the fire burning.
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Solid 1st quarter. Bullish!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/weaponized-america-sturm-ruger-backlog-doubles-gun-production-shipments-surge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/weaponized-america-sturm-ruger-backlog-doubles-gun-production-shipments-surge)
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Charles Oakwood is back on top and wins High praise for his guess of 2,000,000 being over by 285567!
the number was a mere 1,714,433 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-033113.pdf) significantly down from last month. and even below my spreadsheet calculation of 1998718 based on average change over the last 4 years, and well below everyone's guesses. . The FBI also failed to update the download link to indicate April.. which is a bit odd since the file it pointed to was updated.
So, that a pretty big dropoff. Feel free to speculate as to the causes as you leave your guess for May.
Is supply of actual firearms growing short? Is the frenzy caused by Obama's push over? Has the government started to lie about this number as well?
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Weisshaupt's Guessing Aids:
(http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c341/weisshaupt/Total-Average-Year-over-year-NICS_growth-per-month_zps48278ad8.jpg)
Average Year Over Year Monthly NICS growth for all data, Bush and Obama Years
(http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c341/weisshaupt/Total-Average-NICs-Checks-per-Month_zpsb3bdf0df.jpg)
Average Total NICS checks per month for all Data, Bush and Obama Years
(http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c341/weisshaupt/AverageMonthtoMonthChange_zps0f3ffa77.jpg)
Average Month to Month Changes
What is somewhat interesting is that the Totals and month to month changes are essentially the same curves.. with buying still peaking and falling off in the same months- just with Obama's turned up to 11..
Any resemblance to Bull's Eye targets is purely coincidental.
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It sounds to me like CO is doing some insider trading. He should consider running for Congress!
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January trend - No guess
March - end of falling plateu
June - Father's Day
Aug / Nov - Pre-season sales
Dec - Christmas
As to the second graph, Merry Christmas!
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It sounds to me like CO is doing some insider trading. He should consider running for Congress!
Vote for me and I'll run 'em out of town on a rail, the whole lot.
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It sounds to me like CO is doing some insider trading. He should consider running for Congress!
Vote for me and I'll run 'em out of town on a rail, the whole lot.
^^^^^
That right there gets my vote.
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Sounds good to me. ::whoohoo::
Congrats Charles. ::thumbsup::
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Thanks.
Bump
Weisshaupt's Guessing Aids:
(http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c341/weisshaupt/Total-Average-Year-over-year-NICS_growth-per-month_zps48278ad8.jpg)
Average Year Over Year Monthly NICS growth for all data, Bush and Obama Years
(http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c341/weisshaupt/Total-Average-NICs-Checks-per-Month_zpsb3bdf0df.jpg)
Average Total NICS checks per month for all Data, Bush and Obama Years
(http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c341/weisshaupt/AverageMonthtoMonthChange_zps0f3ffa77.jpg)
Average Month to Month Changes
What is somewhat interesting is that the Totals and month to month changes are essentially the same curves.. with buying still peaking and falling off in the same months- just with Obama's turned up to 11..
Any resemblance to Bull's Eye targets is purely coincidental.
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No Guesses. No High Praise for anyone.
The number for may was 1,435,917 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-033113.pdf) Still up 9% Year over Year. - less than Halfway though 2013, and already over 10 Million checks for the year.
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We forgot to guess? ::facepalm::
Oh well, seems like things are winding down a bit, don't see June being any better than May...I'll go with an even $1.5m.
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I'll guess 1,625,000 for June (I'm hoping to get something this month).
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We forgot to guess? ::facepalm::
Oh well, seems like things are winding down a bit, don't see June being any better than May...I'll go with an even $1.5m.
Yes, only 9% Year over Year growth this month -- if we finished the year with 0% YoY growth each month, we end up with a mere 22 Million NICs Checks for the year.
I wonder if the 9% is a function of problems with supply, or simply the chilling effect the government is after with the hysteria, police stops and child abuse in schools. Can't get a gun, if my kid talks about it he will get suspended!
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people vacation in june....1,364, 269
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Forgot? Some distraction? ::outrage::::rockets::
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I'm not going to forget this time.
1,306,685
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1,242,000
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Charles Oakwood earns High praise for his guess of 1,306,685 being over by a mere 25334
Narrowly edging out Glock32 who was under by 39351.
the number was 1,281,351 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/reports-total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-070213.pdf) down less than 2% Year over year and around 11% from last month.
Post your guesses and speculations..
Anyone seeing the Ammo situation getting better?
Gun shows being less attended? Or is the Firearm Stock simply mirroring the ammo supply?
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Thank you, thank you, thank you. I actually used a calculator to come up with that number. Whew, that was close.
I frequent Wallmart and at every visit cruise through sporting goods for a casual survey and a chat with the clerk. The answer last visit, well, actually, she said "at least we had firecrackers", was the same as the day it started.
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Congrats CO. ::hat-tip::
My store visits seem to indicate more desires for for ammo than for what shoots it...latter isn't much fun without the former.
I sense a slackening ... I'll speculate a round million for July.
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Well....I'm getting my estimate in early.
July: 1,099,099
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Thank you, thank you, thank you. I actually used a calculator to come up with that number. Whew, that was close.
I frequent Wallmart and at every visit cruise through sporting goods for a casual survey and a chat with the clerk. The answer last visit, well, actually, she said "at least we had firecrackers", was the same as the day it started.
Congrats Charles ;-)
I continue to poke around and keep an eye on things even though I don't really need to buy much. I found some powder that has been AWOL for close to two years but no luck on primers yet.
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I'm gonna guestimate 1,150,000 for July.
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Thank you, thank you, thank you. I actually used a calculator to come up with that number. Whew, that was close.
I frequent Wallmart and at every visit cruise through sporting goods for a casual survey and a chat with the clerk. The answer last visit, well, actually, she said "at least we had firecrackers", was the same as the day it started.
::cool::
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Sorry its late this month, Been working, then vacationing and just forgot...
So Ben61 was robbed of a full week of High High praise for his guess of 1,150,00 !!!
the number was 1,283,912 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-033113.pdf) virtually unchanged from last month, and down less than 2% Year over Year.
Is this an indication of saturation? That demand continues and supply is simply limited to around 1,300,000? Will simply guessing 1,300,000 win you high praise next month?
Speculations and Guesses please...
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The scrolling marquee is truncated...what're we missing?
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The scrolling marquee is truncated...what're we missing?
Apparently using a comma the way I used it was bad.
Seems to be fixed when I look at it.
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The scrolling marquee is truncated...what're we missing?
Apparently using a comma the way I used it was bad.
Seems to be fixed when I look at it.
All I see is it ending "...was robbed of a full w"
Maybe it's just me.
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Sorry its late this month, Been working, then vacationing and just forgot...
So Ben61 was robbed of a full week of High High praise for his guess of 1,150,00 !!!
the number was 1,283,912 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-033113.pdf) virtually unchanged from last month, and down less than 2% Year over Year.
Is this an indication of saturation? That demand continues and supply is simply limited to around 1,300,000? Will simply guessing 1,300,000 win you high praise next month?
Speculations and Guesses please...
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1,098,312
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Thank you everyone,
1,350,000 from me for August.
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Ben's in the win column, good job Ben!
I'll go 1,279,438 for this month.
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I predict there will be upticks in the remaining months of the year. You've got deer season starting soon, followed by Christmas, and both of those result in lots of sporting rifles being bought.
1,375,000.
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1,312,000
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This is a positive sign!
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/08/newtown-gun-permits-set-to-double-after-massacre-video/ (http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/08/newtown-gun-permits-set-to-double-after-massacre-video/)
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Late Again this month...
Glock32 Wins HIGH PRAISE for his guess of 1375000
the number was 1,419,088 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-083113.pdf) up 10% over last month, but down *% for this month last year..
So we managed to break our run of 1,300,000... and no simply guessing 1,300,000 did not win high praise
Hunting season is starting in most places.. Speculations and Guesses for September please...
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Congrats, Glock.
I believe I'm going to ponder my next educated guess.....for a moment or two.
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Congrats Glock, I'm going to wait for him to make his guess and mine will be 25000 higher. ;)
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Congrats Glock, I'm going to wait for him to make his guess and mine will be 25000 higher. ;)
Actually...That was also my thought process....LOL
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Glock rocks, but we knew that already. ::thumbsup::
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How much longer can these numbers keep up like this/
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How much longer can these numbers keep up like this/
Who knows.... I look at it as another 1.3 mil of my friends when it gets fugly.
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How much longer can these numbers keep up like this/
Who knows.... I look at it as another 1.3 mil of my friends when it gets fugly.
I'm hearing about more and more liberals getting guns because they are frightened about what might happen when their policies cause the collapse.
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How much longer can these numbers keep up like this/
Who knows.... I look at it as another 1.3 mil of my friends when it gets fugly.
I'm hearing about more and more liberals getting guns because they are frightened about what might happen when their policies cause the collapse.
Then why do they vote for slugs that want gun control.
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How much longer can these numbers keep up like this/
Who knows.... I look at it as another 1.3 mil of my friends when it gets fugly.
I'm hearing about more and more liberals getting guns because they are frightened about what might happen when their policies cause the collapse.
Might I recommend this model for them:
(http://files.coloribus.com/files/adsarchive/part_660/6600805/file/gun-control-awareness-backwards-gun-small-53151.jpg)
(that image was created by a bunch of gun grabbers, so I will happily repurpose it to ridicule these fascist pigs)
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::whoohoo::
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So No guesses for this month.... so I award high praise to myself for Posting the numbers - which are available despite the Government shutdown. This month there were 1,401,562 NICS checks (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-100313.pdf) Down Year over year by 4%, down .
So what say everyone? Will we be stuck at 1.4 Million a month through the holidays because we are supply limited? Will the petty govt shutdowns and continued persecution of Conservatives via the Schools for "hand guns" and NRA shirts drive those numbers up along with the Holiday buying? At this point if the numbers hold we will be on track to hit last years total of 19 Million.
Guesses please, or no one will get High Praise!
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1.34 M.
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What the heck I'll go higher...1.45M...come on early holiday shoppers!!!
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I'm sure, with the Gov't shut down, NCIS checks will take a hit.
999, 468
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Dude, only 15% of the Fedcoats are furloughed, think they'll let the gun-trackers go?
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Heck I'm surprised they didn't shut down NICS as a way of trying to thwart gun sales. With deer season and Christmas approaching, I think we should see some increase. I'll highball it and say 1,560,000.
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Dude, only 15% of the Fedcoats are furloughed, think they'll let the gun-trackers go?
If it prevents people from buying guns? Oh yeah. I was very surprised to find the FBI site up and the numbers tabulated.
But then, if its primary purpose is building a gun registry ( and it is ) and they are worried about gun sales taking place illegally without the NICS system ( i.e deals going down on a wink and a Nod and then checking NICS when its available again) then they keep it up. Or maybe they just didn't think of shutting it down yet. Or they figure that doing so will start the war and they don't want to go there.. yet.
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My guess 1,325,000
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Late Again Still this month... I just keep missing that new month thing..
Glock32 Wins HIGH PRAISE for his guess of 1560000
the number was 1,687,599 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-100313.pdf) up 20% over last month, and up 4.5% year over year.
Speculations and Guesses for November please...
If we simply do what we did last year, we will end the year at over 22 Million NICS checks, and approximately 89 Million checks since Obama took office..
Granted, not every check resulted in a purchase- either because of a denial or because oit was a check for a Concealed Carry etc, and some checks resulted in more than one purchase. Good luck gun grabbers.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/11/20131112_NICS.png)
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I like the NICS checks vs Oblowmecare graph.
My guess for November is 1,834,562. I figure we are coming up on Christmas.
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I'm going to jump in here and take a shot ::rimshot::at 1,691,300
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OK, I'll raise! 1,901,308! Winnah!
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$2.15 million.
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1,800,002 HEH!
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1,720,599
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Oh oh, Don undercutting JF! ::dueling::
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This one was a squeaker!
John Florida Wins HIGH PRAISE for his guess of 1,800,000 being off by a mere 13,643
Closely followed by Benb61 who was only 20,919 off in his guess.
the Nov number was 1,813,643 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/total-nics-background-checks-1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals-113013.pdf) up 7% over last month, and down over 10% year over year. Total count for the year so far.. 19,051,745, just 540558 off of last years total.
Okay so lets have those guesses for the yearly total for 2013!
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Crap, too high! ::facepalm::
Congrats JF.
Heck with it, I'll just hold over my 1,901,308.
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Congrats John. Grrr I was so close.
For December I'll go with 1,862,345
For the year 20,914,090
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That makes it 1 in a row for me ::danceban:: The swag method works!!
Scientific
Wild
Ass
Guess
My next number is going to be 1,840,003
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LIBERTAS! Wins HIGH PRAISE for his guess of 1,901,308 !
(finally)
Happy New Year!
the Dec number was 2,041,528 (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2013_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf) down a significant 26% over last years total of 2.7 Million. . Total count for the year was 21,093,273.. nearly 1.5 million more than last year.
Since Obama was elected in Nov 2008, there have been 88,636,758 NICS checks! Way to keep those guns out of people's hands leftards!
So what will 2014 bring? Guesses for January please!
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::whoohoo::
Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.
Now that I have lucky over with, I'll give good a try. ;D
I see a dip in January, post-holiday hangover...emptier bank accounts....I'll take an even 1,300,000.
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High praise it is then....
(http://deathstarpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/DarthVaderKneels.png)
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I think we might be starting to see a certain amount of saturation. People have been arming up at an unprecedented rate, and it might be that most everyone inclined to buy a firearm already has multiple times over. There's always going to be people like me who keep buying just "because", but I think most people are content without filling a safe. I'd expect the numbers to be lower than what we were seeing over the past few years.
I'll say 1,100,000 for January.
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I believe the slowdown will continue, but by single digits. My local gun shop keeps running promos on AR's and his business is brisk. 1,699,998
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I'm thinking 1,486,524
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Others expecting a drop in 2014...but the next big ammo scare could be on next.
I'll keep an eye out for rounds, especially rifle rounds...but I am glad I have a serviceable hoard...well, had...until that tragic recent boating accident...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-07/gun-sales-surge-record-high-2013-expect-ammo-spike-2014 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-07/gun-sales-surge-record-high-2013-expect-ammo-spike-2014)