Author Topic: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court  (Read 2062 times)

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Online Pandora

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... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« on: October 22, 2012, 07:18:11 PM »
"Today, a court in the central Italian city of L'Aquila .... sentenced six scientists and a government bureaucrat to six years in jail on manslaughter charges for their failure to predict a 2009 earthquake that left more than 300 people dead.

... The seven convicted men stood accused of "inexact, incomplete, and contradictory" information about the risks posed by tremors in the weeks ahead of the April 6, 2009, earthquake that caused so much destruction.

The seven, all members of the "National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks," were convicted after an apparently emotional trial in which the testimony of people who had lost loved ones were allowed, as if it was relevant to the question of whether current science can predict earthquakes. No grief, no matter how great, can answer that question (which is a resounding "no," by the way).

The scientific consensus has been clear on this for some time. As much as the world would like the ability to predict earthquakes, it's eluded the best efforts of scientists for decades. The plate-tectonic revolution in geology held out some hope for greater predictive abilities as it gathered steam in the 1950s and 1960s. But while scientists have a much better understanding of why earthquakes happen and where they're likely to occur than at any point in human history, their predictive powers are so vague as to be practically useless – beyond recommending people shouldn't live in quake zones like L'Aquila. People are generally resistant to such advice though. The city was rebuilt after major earthquakes in the 15th and 18th centuries, just as it has been rebuilt now."

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2012/1022/Earthquake-predictions-and-a-triumph-of-scientific-illiteracy-in-an-Italian-court
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Offline LadyVirginia

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2012, 10:47:44 PM »
taking the lack of personal responsibilty to new lows

"And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor."

Online Pandora

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2012, 10:49:15 PM »
taking the lack of personal responsibilty to new lows



Worse than that, LV; it's the current UNsanity running amok in the world.  Powers and principalities.
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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Offline Libertas

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2012, 06:53:57 AM »
OK, who is the responsible person we can hold accountable for the failure to predict what a colossal fustercluck Obama turned out to be?  It's not me, it's not anybody here at this site...who do we hold accountable?

 ::saywhat::
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Online ToddF

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2012, 07:14:03 AM »
You know your nation's decent into 3rd world crapholedom is complete when...

 ::smallestviolin::


CatholicCrusader

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2012, 07:45:29 AM »
taking the lack of personal responsibilty to new lows
Worse than that, LV; it's the current UNsanity running amok in the world.  Powers and principalities.

Well now, in all fairness: Were they jailed simply because they did not predict the earthquake? Or were they jailed because incompetencies and errors were found in their work? Those are two different things.

If a doctor loses a patient on an operating table, well that's unfortunately the way it goes sometimes because surgery is dangerous but the doctor won't get into trouble. However, if a doctor loses a patient on an operating table because he was incompetant or he screwed up then he will face penalties.

Online Pandora

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2012, 11:59:16 AM »
taking the lack of personal responsibilty to new lows
Worse than that, LV; it's the current UNsanity running amok in the world.  Powers and principalities.

Well now, in all fairness: Were they jailed simply because they did not predict the earthquake? Or were they jailed because incompetencies and errors were found in their work? Those are two different things.

If a doctor loses a patient on an operating table, well that's unfortunately the way it goes sometimes because surgery is dangerous but the doctor won't get into trouble. However, if a doctor loses a patient on an operating table because he was incompetant or he screwed up then he will face penalties.

Did you read the piece?  No, there were no errors in their work because it wasn't their work at question, it was the unreliability of their freakin "crystal ball". 

"Prosecutors had argued the experts gave inaccurate reassurances after tremors that preceded the 6.3 magnitude quake.

The six seismologists and one government official took part in a meeting before the quake in March 2009 where a risk assessment committee told city officials that a major quake was improbable, although not impossible.

"What those six scientists said was correct and any seismologists would support it," said Roger Musson at the British Geological Survey. "It seems to be wrong that they should be prosecuted for offering scientific advice to the best of their ability.""

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/22/us-science-manslaughter-italy-idUSBRE89L1IC20121022

Those ridiculous and ignorant people would be equally and erroneously irate if the seismologists "assessed" the quake as probable, and a with a window, the area was evacuated and nothing happened.
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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Online Pandora

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"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

"Let us assume for the moment everything you say about me is true. That just makes your problem bigger, doesn't it?"

Offline Glock32

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2012, 01:20:21 AM »
This should certainly do a lot to encourage the best and brightest scientists to go into these fields in the future /sarc

Now, can we get a trial for the inverse of this? Irresponsible "scientists" knowingly and deliberately falsifying data for their claim of a catastrophic global climate upheaval that has surely already cost untold numbers of lives and treasure?
"The Fourth Estate is less honorable than the First Profession."

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Offline Libertas

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2012, 07:04:51 AM »
This should certainly do a lot to encourage the best and brightest scientists to go into these fields in the future /sarc

Now, can we get a trial for the inverse of this? Irresponsible "scientists" knowingly and deliberately falsifying data for their claim of a catastrophic global climate upheaval that has surely already cost untold numbers of lives and treasure?

 ::whoohoo::
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Online Pandora

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2012, 08:04:06 AM »
Quote
ROME (TheBlaze/AP) — After seven Italian seismologists and experts were found guilty of manslaughter and received a prison sentence for failing to adequately warn residents of a deadly 2009 earthquake, others fearing similar prosecution are leaving their posts.

Four top Italian disaster experts quit their jobs Tuesday, saying with such a risk, they can’t effectively perform their duties.

... Many scientists and commentators have noted that the court case failed to address a major cause of fatalities in disasters like quakes and mudslides: erecting homes, schools, hospitals and other public buildings on quake-prone terrain without the proper construction techniques or materials to make the structures more resilient.

... After the April 2009 quake, which left 308 people dead, many experts said that the 6.3-magnitude temblor wouldn’t have caused such extensive damage if buildings been constructed or retrofitted to meet modern quake zone construction standards.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/disaster-experts-leave-posts-fearing-prosecution-after-peers-receive-prison-sentence-for-poor-predictions/
"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

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Offline IronDioPriest

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2012, 09:52:18 AM »
What an absolute travesty. How is it that people cannot look at a situation like this and discern the right thing?

Powers and principalities indeed.
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Offline Glock32

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Re: ... A triumph of scientific illiteracy in an Italian court
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2012, 01:30:18 PM »
This same mentality is why the cost of medical treatment has soared astronomically.  They are placing demands and expectations on people who are working to solve problems where no such certitude exists. The result is exactly what they are already seeing in Italy, good and competent people quit because they are afraid being 98% correct might see them thrown in jail by a state that ridiculously expects 100%.
"The Fourth Estate is less honorable than the First Profession."

- Yours Truly