Author Topic: If this MegaBear is even close to right...  (Read 1088 times)

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Offline Libertas

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If this MegaBear is even close to right...
« on: January 28, 2015, 07:26:24 AM »
If this MegaBear is even close to right...then shorting as things fall will be the only way to suck what you can out one last time...at least until all trading is suspended...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-27/equities-will-be-devastated-crispin-odey-warns-looming-recession-will-be-remembered-

Aaaaand...it's gone!
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: If this MegaBear is even close to right...
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2015, 07:52:42 AM »
If this MegaBear is even close to right...then shorting as things fall will be the only way to suck what you can out one last time...at least until all trading is suspended...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-27/equities-will-be-devastated-crispin-odey-warns-looming-recession-will-be-remembered-

Aaaaand...it's gone!

I doubt equity markets are going to fall. 

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However, let’s also deal with three counters that I currently have to field:

    1. ‘How long dare you be wrong?’
    2. The opposite. ‘Do you think after a good quarter, this is all in the price?’
    3. ‘But isn’t a downturn in the world economy leading to massive counter-measures in terms of liquidity, as en-visaged by Draghi and the ECB, which will push mar-kets and assets higher?’

My answers are as follows:

    1. The performance of the fund since I decided that the world would end differently to my previous thinking, which was in March/April 2014, reflects that I have not been especially early in this call. It would have been rather nice to get the fall in oil spot on, but we didn’t.
    2. No change in cycle lasts for nine months. This down cycle is likely to be remembered in a hundred years, when we hope it won’t be rated for “How good it looks for its age!”. Sadly this down cycle will cause a great deal of damage, precisely because it will happen despite the efforts of the central banks to thwart it.
    3. We need to go back to 2008. We had seen reckless spending and reckless borrowing, fraudulently obtained credit advances and overvalued housing. And yet, de-spite the banks losing a great deal of money and house prices in the USA tanking, we hardly saw a recession in 2009. Why? Because when the Anglo-Saxon central banks lowered interest rates from 5.25% to effectively zero, they put the equivalent of 30% of net income into the hands of the overborrowed. There were other QE measures taken but this was the important one.
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Did he address the question? If so I missed it.  Sure rates can't be lowered anymore- they are near zero.  But DIRECT PURCHASE via CRONIES is still alive and well, and is now the Dominant QE measure ( welcome to 2015..)   Rates are NOT going to go up, but the fed will continue to act as if they were to provide the illusion of a desire to return to sanity. In real life, money will continue to be printed, loaned to banks and other controllable cronies ( who of course take a cut)  and  equities will not be allowed to fall too far or too fast. (other than the usual engineered drops to fleece the muppets and clean out the weak hands) .

Too many people have too much money ( on paper)  in the stock market, and its gives too many people the illusion of "doing well" for them to let the charade stop.  The fact that inflation is running at LEAST 5% and the government takes at least 20%  of your capita gains means that you are risking a lot of money for very, very little gain , if in  the end you have any at all.  At best its going to keep pace with the inflation.  IN some cases QE may get it a little ahead. But its all Vegas baby. Weimar's stock market when up, up up too. Until it went down and down hard, when confidence in the actual money was lost - and shorting the market won't help you then because your shorts are ALSO PAID in worthless bits of paper.

Beans. Bullets.  Bullion.

Offline Libertas

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Re: If this MegaBear is even close to right...
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2015, 08:25:21 AM »
I agree.  It is primarily why I said "if" close to right, because the Fed will make it look like they are trying to be sane when in fact very little to nothing will actually be done, but that is in itself enough to cause a drop, not a catastrophic drop like MegaBear says, but even the phony fundamentals are bad, so there will be a dip...and if you short you have to short and convert that fiat into tangible goods right away (your 3 B's!) and call it good.

Me?  I'm not going to short, I am not in that much, and I don't want to throw anything on the board.  But, if someone is still in, might be good to get out or short your way out.
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.