Author Topic: BOV  (Read 3387 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 41064
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
BOV
« on: February 01, 2012, 10:03:14 AM »
I need a better BOV, I think maybe something diesel is the way to go.  Some of these are over the top, but, ya gets all types!  It's all good!

http://www.jeepforum.com/forum/f7/what-best-shtf-vehicle-894674/
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
* © Libertas (H/T Glock32)

Online Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5147
Re: BOV
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2012, 11:13:37 AM »
I think this is another right tool for the right job question.

f you are worried about a E&M pulse, either from the sun or from a Nuke,  then you are looking at vehicles from the pre-electronic ignition/fuel injection days only, or you plan to keep a spare car computer in a Faraday cage somewhere.  However,  even if you did,  you become a really stupidly obvious target because your vehicle is the only one moving, and you can't move fast because every road everywhere is choked with abandoned vehicles ( unless the pulse comes at 3am)  and scared people.  In that case, you are still probably better off hoofing it so you don't look different than others. Granted you could also try a 3am run and hope no one notices.  If I had millions, I would prep this this. I don't.

My main concern for a bugout vehilce was its long term use.  Some way you will get to your teotwaki hideout. Car, train, hiking, biking, horseback. Once there, its probably rural, and you probably need a reliable means of transportation.

If you are worried about an oil/gasoline shortage,  having a vehicle that accepts and alternate fuel is a good idea, and there are pros/cons to each type.  We still have plenty of natural gas here in the States, and that is probably the best alt fuel to run on other than gasoline, as it will probably still be available during a gasoline shortage.  However, it assumes you have some way of filling it up easily where you live, and outside of an urban area,  that  is going to be unlikely.  Diesel will probably be in the same boat, since it can be made from various organic oils, but you are looking at much higher prices at the pump in the meantime.  A "flexfuel" vehicle will let you run alcohol and gas, letting you use gasoline while available, and alcohol when not. You know humans will ALWAYS produce alcohol.  Most states already require alcohol to be added to gasoline, and therefore much of the required infrastructure is already in place - alcohol just becomes more of the mixture.  Further, a CPU addition  or some modifications and most  non-flexfuel cars are upgradeable to alcohol. Because of this, I would expect alcohol to become the liquid fuel of choice of most people if gasoline becomes to expensive - just as it was the fuel of choice before we manufactured gasoline. Old Model As has a switch to convert from each and most farmers made their own from failed/bad/rotten portions of their crops to run tractors etc. It is possible for individuals to make both diesel and alcohol, but diesel requires more steps,  equipment and know how.  For all of these reasons,  that is the tech we placed out bet on, for good or ill.
Then of course there is the "gassifier" approach where you distill wood to get methane and H2.  Its probably okay for short trips, but its seriously a mad max technology. We talked about this tech for power generation before.  The problem of course is storage of the energy produced. H2 is hard to store without liquefaction, and you need serious pressure for that. Yes it will work , but it takes more to get it going than going out and turnging the key.    Of course electric vehciles can also be used, but the battery tech will last you 5-10 years and then you are stuck.


Of course you probably need a 4 wheel drive or a motor cycle  to get around obstacles, go off road and deal with blockages. If you have the money for a unimog, go for it. Otherwise, choosing something more standard may make more sense.  However, the best teotwaki bugout vehicle is a set of horses, mules etc. They can go nearly anywhere. Their fuel grows nearly every where on the way to your destination, you can put them in a train to carry almost anything you want, and they can go over rough terrain better than any vehicle.  Of course, you have high expenses maintaining them till you need them.



  



Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 41064
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: BOV
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2012, 11:35:54 AM »
Right tool-right job, RTRJ!   ::thumbsup::

Didn't think about the alcohol angle, but even with a FFV, if you go full alcohol, doesn't that burn hotter, cause more wear/failure?

Neighbor at BOL has horses, hopefully I'll be able to make a deal.   ;)

Good input Weisshaupt!   ::thumbsup::
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
* © Libertas (H/T Glock32)

Online Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5147
Re: BOV
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2012, 11:43:11 AM »
Didn't think about the alcohol angle, but even with a FFV, if you go full alcohol, doesn't that burn hotter, cause more wear/failure?


My understanding is that the CPUs and sensors are such they can adjust for any mixture. Or at least that always accurate site wikipedia says so ( though I have found the same info elsewhere.)

Quote
Though technology exists to allow ethanol FFVs to run on any mixture of gasoline and ethanol, from pure gasoline up to 100% ethanol (E100),[15][16] North American and European flex-fuel vehicles are optimized to run on a maximum blend of 15% gasoline with 85% anhydrous ethanol (called E85 fuel). This limit in the ethanol content is set to reduce ethanol emissions at low temperatures and to avoid cold starting problems during cold weather, at temperatures lower than 11 °C (52 °F).[17] The alcohol content is reduced during the winter in regions where temperatures fall below 0 °C (32 °F)[18] to a winter blend of E70 in the U.S.[19][20] or to E75 in Sweden[21] from November until March.[22] Brazilian flex fuel vehicles are optimized to run on any mix of E20-E25 gasoline and up to 100% hydrous ethanol fuel (E100). The Brazilian flex vehicles are built-in with a small gasoline reservoir for cold starting the engine when temperatures drop below 15 °C (59 °F).[23] An improved flex motor generation was launched in 2009 which eliminated the need for the secondary gas tank.

Getting my Alcohol Fuel license and making my first batch is on the to do list this year. Then I can tell you if its possible via experiment.
Even if E85 was required, its going to be cheaper to buy 15% gasoline than 100% gasoline.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 11:55:56 AM by Weisshaupt »

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 41064
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: BOV
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2012, 11:54:59 AM »
Didn't think about the alcohol angle, but even with a FFV, if you go full alcohol, doesn't that burn hotter, cause more wear/failure?


My understanding is that the CPUs and sensors are such they can adjust for any mixture. Or at least that always accurate site wikipedia says so ( though I have found the same info elsewhere.)

Quote
Though technology exists to allow ethanol FFVs to run on any mixture of gasoline and ethanol, from pure gasoline up to 100% ethanol (E100),[15][16] North American and European flex-fuel vehicles are optimized to run on a maximum blend of 15% gasoline with 85% anhydrous ethanol (called E85 fuel). This limit in the ethanol content is set to reduce ethanol emissions at low temperatures and to avoid cold starting problems during cold weather, at temperatures lower than 11 °C (52 °F).[17] The alcohol content is reduced during the winter in regions where temperatures fall below 0 °C (32 °F)[18] to a winter blend of E70 in the U.S.[19][20] or to E75 in Sweden[21] from November until March.[22] Brazilian flex fuel vehicles are optimized to run on any mix of E20-E25 gasoline and up to 100% hydrous ethanol fuel (E100). The Brazilian flex vehicles are built-in with a small gasoline reservoir for cold starting the engine when temperatures drop below 15 °C (59 °F).[23] An improved flex motor generation was launched in 2009 which eliminated the need for the secondary gas tank.

Getting my Alcohol Fuel license and making my first batch is on the to do list this year. Then I can tell you if its possible via experiment.
Even if E85 was required, its going to be cheaper to by 15% gasoline than 100% gasoline.

As long as it continues to be subsidized, if left to the market, it would be sold about the same as gas is going for now per gallon.  Plus, you do get less mileage with E85 vs regular gas.  When I had a FFV Taurus, it would get 3-5 mpg less, depending upon city/highway driving.  As long as there is a 45-50 cent advantage at the pump for E85 I would break even in any comparison.  If oil gets scarce, demand could also drive up ethanol costs.

Good luck on your batch of alcohol, I'm sure we'll hear of your results!   ::thumbsup::
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
* © Libertas (H/T Glock32)

Offline AmericanPatriot

  • Conservative Hero
  • ****
  • Posts: 2183
Re: BOV
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2012, 12:41:15 PM »
Libertas, the ethanol subsidy expired 1/1/12
I never would have believed it

Online Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5147
Re: BOV
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2012, 01:04:18 PM »
As long as it continues to be subsidized, if left to the market, it would be sold about the same as gas is going for now per gallon.  Plus, you do get less mileage with E85 vs regular gas.  When I had a FFV Taurus, it would get 3-5 mpg less, depending upon city/highway driving.  As long as there is a 45-50 cent advantage at the pump for E85 I would break even in any comparison.  If oil gets scarce, demand could also drive up ethanol costs.

I am not advocating E85 or E100 as a good fuel for the current paradime, but suggesting its likely to become the major replacement fuel if gasoline costs rise  because of a teotwaki event, because transition costs are lower for most people.  A number of folks are  working on a cellulose process  - so if there is a real  demand for E85, we should be able to produce it quasi-local using leaves etc, rather than growing other things to ferment. Corn is the worst one. Without the subsidy , it would NEVER be used for ethanol. It takes a lot of energy to grow, and harvest, and it really doesn't yeild a lot of ethanol when fermented.  There are lots of other crops with better output.  Cattails being one of the best. And they grow in sewage.   And yes, unless you entire engine is built and optimized for ethanol ( pistons areas, lengths, etc)  you are going to get lower mileage with it, which isn't a problem when an E85 blend costs $5 a gallon and full gasoline costs $15.   

Online Pandora

  • Administrator
  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 16065
  • I iz also makin a list. U on it pal.
Re: BOV
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2012, 01:18:04 PM »
Libertas, the ethanol subsidy expired 1/1/12
I never would have believed it

Nevertheless, the mandate continues.

http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,4693.new.html#new

"Under certain circumstances, profanity provides a relief denied even to prayer." - Mark Twain

"Let us assume for the moment everything you say about me is true. That just makes your problem bigger, doesn't it?"

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 41064
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: BOV
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2012, 02:45:48 PM »
Libertas, the ethanol subsidy expired 1/1/12
I never would have believed it

I thought it got extended!  Damn, show's what I know!

 ::bashing::
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
* © Libertas (H/T Glock32)

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 41064
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: BOV
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2012, 02:48:17 PM »
Libertas, the ethanol subsidy expired 1/1/12
I never would have believed it

Nevertheless, the mandate continues.

http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,4693.new.html#new



Nice, and now ethanol can join the laundry list of formula mandates from bureaucratic numbskulls!!!!
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
* © Libertas (H/T Glock32)

charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: BOV
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2012, 03:14:38 PM »
A lot to consume from the preceding but immediately upon reading this:
 
"I think maybe something diesel is the way to go."

I thought of a Volkswagen TDI. A friend owns one and performs all specified maintenance
then proceeds to drive it as if it were a NASCAR vehicle.  This VW has 275K miles
and looks and feels exemplary.  He expects to get a minimum of 350K miles.

Parts houses and availability for pre-electronic vehicles were discussed at another topic.

Online Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5147
Re: BOV
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2012, 04:50:25 PM »
Another thought on Diesel ... here is a graph I made using data from here for average weekly gasoline and diesel prices in the United  States since 1994.

It shows your savings per mile on a vehicle that gets an assumed  20 miles per gallon on unleaded gasoline, and a similar vehicle that gets 10%, 10%, 30% or 40%  better performance on diesel.  In real life 10% better would be low for a diesel. 40% would be outstanding.  Most would fall in at around  30%.
If you drive 240 Miles a week and fill up every week, then your average savings per week over the entire period shown would be about $1.16 for the 10%  case, $2.96 for the 20%, $4.50 for 30% and $5.80 for the 40% case.  So between $5 and $46 amonth. This of course DOES NOT take into account the initial cost differences or the potential cost difference in maintenence.  



Note that during the Stock crash in late 2008/early 2009  that this value went NEGATIVE (providing  I did my math right and I think I did) .  I don't know enough about the supply chains, refining prioirties and other factors to   speculate as to why this is,  but if it is a result a long term effect , that would mean you may pay more to run a Diesel in hard economic times.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 04:56:22 PM by Weisshaupt »

Online Alphabet Soup

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 4643
  • Hier standt ich. Ich kann nicht anders
Re: BOV
« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2012, 05:39:24 PM »
Unless I'm mistaken the disparity came at a time when Diesel fuel prices spiked dramatically faster and higher than gasoline (at least in my neck of the woods).

charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: BOV
« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2012, 05:56:57 PM »

I think the spike came from a tax that was not applied to gasoline.

The bonus of a diesel is endurance and cost of operation. Fewer
moving parts The diesel has no spark plugs or coil, actually the
pre-electronic diesel only required a fuel pump and some device
to spin the engine for a start.  WWII tank engines had sort of a
turbine with a chamber that held a shotgun shell, WHAM!  But I
digress. The diesel's also require a positive fuel or air cut off lest,
when they are hot, they start themselves.

Online Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5147
Re: BOV
« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2012, 06:04:04 PM »
Unless I'm mistaken the disparity came at a time when Diesel fuel prices spiked dramatically faster and higher than gasoline (at least in my neck of the woods).

Well, yes.  The question is what caused that spike, and are  those factors that can long term effect, or are they inherently short-lived? The data certainly show that your overall fuel bills could be $500 lower every year using diesel  under current conditions, but  that spike demonstrates  there are conditions where the usual trend can reverse.  At 30% that negative streak lasted 9 weeks, at 20% it lasted 12.  Could conditions be such that during a dollar collapse that it the pricing inverts and gasoline is always cheaper than diesel?  I did this mostly because I wanted to see how bad the fluctuations were, but I didn't expect the negative values.

Online Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5147
Re: BOV
« Reply #15 on: February 02, 2012, 09:07:28 AM »

I think the spike came from a tax that was not applied to gasoline.


Do you have a link?  I can't find any evidence of that.  Also if it were a Tax I would expect it to be a long term effect, and that  the savings afterwards would get smaller , because Diesel just became less attractive when compare to gas,  but if anything the trend widens over time, and that appears to continue after the spike. Also, if it were a tax, that would man that the market eventually forced the sellers to eat all of the tax, and then some, and that seems unlikely given my Austrian school understanding of economics. I would expectthe sellers to eat some portion of the tax, but to push one whatever remainder  they could  to the consumer. As long as the 20% line stays over 0,  that would indicate money left on the table for them to do that, and if anything, the savings have gotten larger  after the spike.

Or did I get confused somewhere?

charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: BOV
« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2012, 10:14:06 AM »

It appears the "tax" is a six cent differential between gas and diesel, the cost imposed by low sulfur regulation and increased demand vs production.  Low-sulfur Diesel will Cost a Fortune

This article answers the question better than other single article I found.  Although I disagree that historically diesel has been higher than regular gasoline.  Until new regulation diesel required must less refining than gasoline and I question that more we import refined diesel.

Highlights:

[blockquote] The EIA cites other factors, chiefly high "worldwide demand"

Another factor given by the EIA is the transition to ultra lower-sulfur diesel fuels in the United States. New Environmental Protection Agency standards for diesel fuel sulfur content took effect in 2006,

higher federal taxes account for 6 cents per gallon of the price difference at the pump. Gasoline is taxed at 18.4 cents per gallon, and diesel at 24.4 cents [/blockquote]

I couldn't find a date when the tax was imposed/increased.

Offline Libertas

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 41064
  • Alea iacta est! Libertatem aut mori!
Re: BOV
« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2012, 11:46:28 AM »
Part of that bio-crap they started putting on engines?

Urea, Diarrhea, whatever...
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
* © Libertas (H/T Glock32)

Online Weisshaupt

  • Conservative Superhero
  • *****
  • Posts: 5147
Re: BOV
« Reply #18 on: February 02, 2012, 11:50:35 AM »
I disagree that historically diesel has been higher than regular gasoline.  Until new regulation diesel required must less refining than gasoline and I question that more we import refined diesel.

So here is the actual price series per gallon for diesel and gas. .  So "historically speaking" it depends on when your data series starts.  Over the entire period (National U.S. Averages again)  Diesel was 8.5 cents more than Gasoline.  For 1994 to 2006, it averaged 1/2 cent more than Gasoline. From 2006 onwards it averaged 24 Cents more, implying that regulationn did much more than add a tax, and  probably greatly increased capital costs in manufacture that they are forced to recoup over time.



charlesoakwood

  • Guest
Re: BOV
« Reply #19 on: February 02, 2012, 12:41:33 PM »

Right on.

My personal history began in the mid seventies and from that time through '93 it was cheaper,
cheap enough that 6 mpg was not an impediment to profit and in the mid-eightys new ones
averaging 10 mpg was a windfall (in a good way) profit. And to the best of my knowledge preceeding
that era diesel was always cheaper.  It's the EPA mostly driving the cost. 

IMHO durability and reliably are the advantages of today's diesel. When the glow plugs went
out on my 5.7 a spritz of WD-40 is all she needed.