Sarah's take is
here via IMAO.us
Sadly I think it too optimistic.
So, it’s entirely possible that the collapse will send those of us who survive – and if the collapse is that massive, those who survive will be maybe one sixth of us, with luck – to hunt squirrels with flint knives. However, I read a lot of history, and that’s not how any collapse has happened, ever.
I agree, we aren't going back to the middle ages. We won't be hunting Squirrel with Flint Knives. The unprepped (and maybe some prepped) will, however, be hunting Squirrel- at least for a time and in some places.
As I’ve been reading this, I’ve become convinced we’re sort of going to experience that sort of collapse but at a higher level. You know, the economy implodes, we turn to civil war, and meanwhile our enemies invade. So, that’s all we’re looking at, not the end of the world.
Yeah. I agree. But I don't think understands what that entails.
So, let’s look at the thing with a clear eye: did France recede into, say, middle ages civilization? Emphatically no. The industrial revolution continued THROUGHOUT the revolution. Did their way of life go back to more primitive forms? Well, yes. But more primitive forms meant being sure you weren’t going to be the victim of a riot on the way to the baker, and learned to bake your own bread (in the cities, in the countryside they still did) if the baker had shut down because there was a riot.
Yes, if you were in Paris, your life became hell, and you might get killed for no particular reason – depending on who you were and the neighborhood – BUT note Paris didn’t depopulate, which it would have if people were genuinely starving in place, and if life became that horrible.
Back then no one was even one generation removed from a Farm. They didn't have 2-3 generations of entitled, lazy, non-contributing zeros sitting on the sidewalks- and in many ways, I think the common uneducated peasant had more common sense ( because you would die without it) They didn't die in place because they had the skills not too. They also had less population density.
Look, to impose country-wide poverty it takes a CONTROLLING regime. While the twits at the top are TRYING to impose that on us, I don’t think they have a chance in h*ll. We’re Americans. We don’t go down easy and we’re not easily governable. Also we’re massive both in terms of landmass and population. (The USSR had massive landmass, but not the same population.) I think we’re about to go pear shaped at them. Which brings us to a collapse, not imposition of poverty from above. Which brings us to: we’re not going back to the nineteenth century. Heck, chances are we’re not going back to the fifties.Heck, even the communists haven’t managed to take Cuba back to the middle ages – though they’ve tried. Instead they sort of froze it in time into a poor version of the fifties
Refineries, supply chains, and travel in general are going to become incredibly restrictive. IN Argentina, some rural areas just stopped getting deliveries - it was too dangerous. Rural enough and you are easy picking for gangs. Yes, Americans's aren't going to just give in, but the morons might very well try to "take advantage of the crisis" - and Crime and death will just be rampant. 19th Century may be the best you can do when no one is making or delivering gasoline. Wars mean disruptions in everything. Cuba is what it is because there is still an outside to get things from, and reasonably safe travel to deliver. We are just not going to have that in many places, probably for years at a time.
ook, guys, the network doesn’t vanish overnight. Power plants don’t disappear. Factories don’t stop. Cars don’t just quit working all at once. There are things that can cause that, and some regions might experience that, but not ALL, not even most. It’s not a high probability. If that happens at all, it will be a city or so. Walk to the next one. It won’t kill you. Or maybe it will, if people in the city defend. Which is why you need to prepare.But that’s still a low probability and the preparations should amount to “A friend in another city who will come and pick me up at some mutually arranged place.”
You know, like when you used to drive to meet them half way. You "friend" has other issues. You may not even be able to contact them. Cars stop working "all at once" when there is no more gas to fill them. Factories stop when the workers can't get there safely , and the lights don't come on even if they do because the electric plant workers couldn't make it safely. Or the workers who run the trains that deliver fuel, or the coal mine workers can't get to the mine or lack the liquid fuel required to run mine machinery. Pre-industrial revolution, production was far more compartmentalized. Now the supply chains are vastly interconnected. A failure at any one point stops, delays or reduces production. But don't work, jump in your car and waste your last tank of gas picking up your friend who may or may not be there ( cell towers aren't up for lack of power, military jamming, executive order or just flooded will calls of people in Detriot trying to arrange a pickup from firends in othe cities)
she admits as much
Collapse or no collapse, civilization level doesn’t go back. What you get instead is an inability to trust the civilization you’ve come to know. Your “conveniences” will fail, and “conveniences in this case include not just cable TV (actually that might well keep going through it all) but electricity, water, roads.
But those Conveniences are integral parts of the aforementioned supply chains. Even if sporadic, the ripple effect will be devastating.
so what she thinks you should do to prep?
1) Find three extra batteries for your computer. Make sure you keep them charged.
2) Make sure you have a device that allows you to connect to the net without depending on local power/ your own hub.
Seriously? What if the 4G is down? Links have been cut or turned off by executive order?
3) Have stuff in place to survive a week of erratic grocery.
4) Have other ways to get where you absolutely must go.
5)If in a hot climate, have at least one room you can cool somehow without electricity. Because heat can kill you. Same with heating in cold climates.
6)Oh, if you’re a writer, and electricity becomes THAT erratic – you know the jags we go on – buy a used typewriter. Manual.
Wow. You still think people will have time to read, and its worth walking through dangerous streets to deliver your physical copy to a publisher.
Mid-range skills now hobbies MIGHT come in handy. As we all become poorer, being able to do clothing alterations MIGHT be prized (but remember the transition might be short, so unless you enjoy it, don’t bother learning it.) Same with playing an instrument. When everyone is stir crazy from lack of electricity, someone who can play music can provide relief. But don’t learn to build steam engines or anything like that. Cooking from scratch might not hurt. It gives you flexibility with bad supply chains.
"MIGHT" come in handy?
Well, say I’m stuck and can’t upload books but I can send TXRed a CD with three novels via whatever parcel post still runs, and give her my publishing password on the tablet. She can upload them for me, and I’ll still get paid.
Again, if you have to send a CD, how are people getting your stuff to read. Send how? The mail is hijacked and robbed on a regular basis.
Embryonic internet, on 9/11, but people stuck across the country as the planes stopped were able to make it home in relays of friends they’d met on line, who each drove them the next ninety miles. Is there some reason we can’t save our own caught in one of the places that goes grimdark? Or send our own clothes, if they’re caught in a place where there are none in the stores. Or flour. Or…
Again, there is no outside that won't be affected.. I just don't see this level of co-operation in a nation on the verge of civil war . I certainly won't be bending over backward to help the lefties. I would rather die than help them at this point.
I mean, I hope she is right, and its this minor. I just don't see it.
Anyway, other thoughts?