Author Topic: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network  (Read 3056 times)

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Offline Weisshaupt

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Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« on: September 11, 2013, 01:23:10 PM »
Sarah's take is here via IMAO.us
Sadly I think it too optimistic.

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So, it’s entirely possible that the collapse will send those of us who survive – and if the collapse is that massive, those who survive will be maybe one sixth of us, with luck – to hunt squirrels with flint knives. However, I read a lot of history, and that’s not how any collapse has happened, ever.

I agree, we aren't going back to the middle ages. We won't be hunting Squirrel with Flint Knives. The unprepped (and maybe some prepped)  will, however, be hunting Squirrel- at least for a time and in some places.

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As I’ve been reading this, I’ve become convinced we’re sort of going to experience that sort of collapse but at a higher level.  You know, the economy implodes, we turn to civil war, and meanwhile our enemies invade. So, that’s all we’re looking at, not the end of the world.

Yeah. I agree. But I don't think understands what that entails.

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So, let’s look at the thing with a clear eye: did France recede into, say, middle ages civilization?  Emphatically no.  The industrial revolution continued THROUGHOUT the revolution. Did their way of life go back to more primitive forms? Well, yes.  But more primitive forms meant being sure you weren’t going to be the victim of a riot on the way to the baker, and learned to bake your own bread (in the cities, in the countryside they still did) if the baker had shut down because there was a riot.
Yes, if you were in Paris, your life became hell, and you might get killed for no particular reason – depending on who you were and the neighborhood – BUT note Paris didn’t depopulate, which it would have if people were genuinely starving in place, and if life became that horrible.


Back then no one was even one generation removed from a Farm. They didn't have 2-3 generations of entitled, lazy, non-contributing zeros sitting on the sidewalks- and in many ways, I think the common uneducated peasant had more common sense ( because you would die without it)   They didn't die in place because they had the skills not too. They also had less population density.

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Look, to impose country-wide poverty it takes a CONTROLLING regime.  While the twits at the top are TRYING to impose that on us, I don’t think they have a chance in h*ll.  We’re Americans.  We don’t go down easy and we’re not easily governable.  Also we’re massive both in terms of landmass and population.  (The USSR had massive landmass, but not the same population.)  I think we’re about to go pear shaped at them. Which brings us to a collapse, not imposition of poverty from above.  Which brings us to: we’re not going back to the nineteenth century.  Heck, chances are we’re not going back to the fifties.Heck, even the communists haven’t managed to take Cuba back to the middle ages – though they’ve tried.  Instead they sort of froze it in time into a poor version of the fifties

Refineries, supply chains, and travel in general are going to become incredibly restrictive.  IN Argentina, some rural areas just stopped getting deliveries - it was too dangerous.  Rural enough and you are easy picking for gangs. Yes, Americans's aren't going to just give in, but the morons might very well try to "take advantage of the crisis" - and Crime  and death will just be rampant.  19th Century may be the best you can do when no one is making or delivering gasoline.  Wars mean disruptions in everything.  Cuba is what it is because there is still an outside to get things from, and reasonably safe travel to deliver.  We are just not going to have that in many places, probably for years at a time.
 
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ook, guys, the network doesn’t vanish overnight.  Power plants don’t disappear. Factories don’t stop. Cars don’t just quit working all at once.  There are things that can cause that, and some regions might experience that, but not ALL, not even most.  It’s not a high probability.  If that happens at all, it will be a city or so.  Walk to the next one.  It won’t kill you.  Or maybe it will, if people in the city defend.  Which is why you need to prepare.But that’s still a low probability and the preparations should amount to “A friend in another city who will come and pick me up at some mutually arranged place.”

You know, like when you used to drive to meet them half way.  You "friend" has other issues. You may not even be able to contact them. Cars stop working "all at once"  when there is no more gas to fill them. Factories stop when the workers can't get there safely , and the lights don't come on even  if they do because the electric plant workers couldn't make it safely.  Or the workers who run  the trains that deliver fuel, or the coal mine workers can't get to the mine or lack the liquid fuel required to run mine machinery. Pre-industrial revolution, production was far more compartmentalized.  Now the supply chains are vastly interconnected. A failure at any one point stops, delays or reduces production.  But don't work, jump in your car and waste your last tank of gas picking up your friend who may or may not be there ( cell towers aren't up for lack of power, military jamming, executive order or just flooded will calls of people in Detriot trying to arrange a pickup from firends in othe cities)

she admits as much

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   Collapse or no collapse, civilization level doesn’t go back. What you get instead is an inability to trust the civilization you’ve come to know.  Your “conveniences” will fail, and “conveniences in this case include not just cable TV (actually that might well keep going through it all) but electricity, water, roads.

But those Conveniences are integral parts of the aforementioned supply chains. Even if sporadic, the ripple effect will be devastating.

so what she thinks you should do to prep?

1)  Find three extra batteries for your computer.  Make sure you keep them charged.
2) Make sure you have a device that allows you to connect to the net without depending on local power/ your own hub.

Seriously? What if the 4G is down? Links have been cut or turned off by executive order?

3) Have stuff in place to survive a week of erratic grocery.
4)  Have other ways to get where you absolutely must go.
5)If in a hot climate, have at least one room you can cool somehow without electricity.  Because heat can kill you.  Same with heating in cold climates.
6)Oh, if you’re a writer, and electricity becomes THAT erratic – you know the jags we go on – buy a used typewriter.  Manual.

Wow. You still think people will have time to read, and its worth walking through dangerous streets to deliver your physical copy to a publisher.

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Mid-range skills now hobbies MIGHT come in handy. As we all become poorer, being able to do clothing alterations MIGHT be prized (but remember the transition might be short, so unless you enjoy it, don’t bother learning it.)  Same with playing an instrument.  When everyone is stir crazy from lack of electricity, someone who can play music can provide relief. But don’t learn to build steam engines or anything like that.  Cooking from scratch might not hurt.  It gives you flexibility with bad supply chains.

"MIGHT" come in handy?

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Well, say I’m stuck and can’t upload books but I can send TXRed a CD with three novels via whatever parcel post still runs, and give her my publishing password on the tablet.  She can upload them for me, and I’ll still get paid.

Again, if you have to send a CD, how are people getting your stuff to read. Send how? The mail is hijacked and robbed on a regular basis.

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Embryonic internet, on 9/11, but people stuck across the country as the planes stopped were able to make it home in relays of friends they’d met on line, who each drove them the next ninety miles.  Is there some reason we can’t save our own caught in one of the places that goes grimdark? Or send our own clothes, if they’re caught in a place where there are none in the stores.  Or flour.  Or…

Again, there is no outside that won't be affected.. I just don't see this level of co-operation in a nation on the verge of civil war . I certainly won't be bending over backward to help the lefties. I would rather die than help them at this point.

I mean, I hope she is right, and its this minor. I just don't see it.
 
Anyway, other thoughts?


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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2013, 01:37:20 PM »
I think she wrote as though she's living in a bubble of her own, as you pointed out in several places.  Whether she truly gets it or not remains to be seen.
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Offline Libertas

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2013, 07:15:22 AM »
Yeah...forget the grid and anything on it...eventually the stations will go dark, lines go unrepaired, etc...

You want to communicate?  Get a HAM radio and related accessories and learn how to use it.

Eat squirrels?  Sure, and whatever else you can get, even if you have stores...don't act like you have it all and will have it forever...take what nature has to offer.

Yeah, some kind of bubble...but at least she is trying to think about things...just keep workin' on it!

Q - Is she really young?
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Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2013, 08:08:44 AM »

Q - Is she really young?

According to her Wiki bio, she was born in 1962, so no I wouldn't classify that as "young".  , and
has written a number of novels  in multiple genres ( which I have heard many praise, but haven't read myself) . She is connected with PJ Media and Instapundit references her quite a bit - but I know I have been linked there from Hot Air, IMAO etc.. She is one of the "good guys" as far as I can tell, but it bothers me when I find a prominent "good guy"  with their head in the sand.  When SHTF happens we need every hand on deck, and those in the position to influence others ready to do that job and do it well.  In Colorado especially. If there is war, it will be here - otherwise you wouldn't be seeing recalls, Sheriffs suing the State and Counties trying to leave.

I agree with her that it won't be so dire as some suspect, but even she admits it could be - that the potential is there.  So you prep for the worst case , not for best case.  3 Spare laptop Batteries, a Verizon WiFI connection and a Manual typewriter isn't going to do it.  She obviously  thinks her job will continue unaffected - no need to learn a new "hobby"(and they seem to be related to entertainment..)  - and I haven't read her fiction, maybe she is so fantastic she is going to be right at the top of the list when Americans decide "I need some entertainment! I will buy some with my all too thin cash instead of food!" , or maybe she has such faith in her non-fiction PJMedia gig that she will see herself through the storm.  but I suspect the market she is will be shrinking. Plenty of old books around for when the power is out.  And sites like PJMedia may  very well be shut down by executive order for sedition (that is if they allow anything resembling the internet to remain "up")  It does say in her Bio she has "too many" Cats.. wonder how they taste?


Offline Libertas

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2013, 08:26:44 AM »

Q - Is she really young?

According to her Wiki bio, she was born in 1962, so no I wouldn't classify that as "young".  , and
has written a number of novels  in multiple genres ( which I have heard many praise, but haven't read myself) . She is connected with PJ Media and Instapundit references her quite a bit - but I know I have been linked there from Hot Air, IMAO etc.. She is one of the "good guys" as far as I can tell, but it bothers me when I find a prominent "good guy"  with their head in the sand.  When SHTF happens we need every hand on deck, and those in the position to influence others ready to do that job and do it well.  In Colorado especially. If there is war, it will be here - otherwise you wouldn't be seeing recalls, Sheriffs suing the State and Counties trying to leave.

I agree with her that it won't be so dire as some suspect, but even she admits it could be - that the potential is there.  So you prep for the worst case , not for best case.  3 Spare laptop Batteries, a Verizon WiFI connection and a Manual typewriter isn't going to do it.  She obviously  thinks her job will continue unaffected - no need to learn a new "hobby"(and they seem to be related to entertainment..)  - and I haven't read her fiction, maybe she is so fantastic she is going to be right at the top of the list when Americans decide "I need some entertainment! I will buy some with my all too thin cash instead of food!" , or maybe she has such faith in her non-fiction PJMedia gig that she will see herself through the storm.  but I suspect the market she is will be shrinking. Plenty of old books around for when the power is out.  And sites like PJMedia may  very well be shut down by executive order for sedition (that is if they allow anything resembling the internet to remain "up")  It does say in her Bio she has "too many" Cats.. wonder how they taste?

Maybe it was some of her writing sytle, or it was a flashback and I didin't pick up on it...anyway something made me wonder about her age.  well, now that that's cleared up...

Cats?  I might (or might not) be able to eat somebody else's cat...my own?   ::speechless::  I doubt it.  I'd have to be really really desperate.

As for taste...most everything is like chicken, right?
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Offline John Florida

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2013, 07:51:07 PM »

Q - Is she really young?

According to her Wiki bio, she was born in 1962, so no I wouldn't classify that as "young".  , and
has written a number of novels  in multiple genres ( which I have heard many praise, but haven't read myself) . She is connected with PJ Media and Instapundit references her quite a bit - but I know I have been linked there from Hot Air, IMAO etc.. She is one of the "good guys" as far as I can tell, but it bothers me when I find a prominent "good guy"  with their head in the sand.  When SHTF happens we need every hand on deck, and those in the position to influence others ready to do that job and do it well.  In Colorado especially. If there is war, it will be here - otherwise you wouldn't be seeing recalls, Sheriffs suing the State and Counties trying to leave.

I agree with her that it won't be so dire as some suspect, but even she admits it could be - that the potential is there.  So you prep for the worst case , not for best case.  3 Spare laptop Batteries, a Verizon WiFI connection and a Manual typewriter isn't going to do it.  She obviously  thinks her job will continue unaffected - no need to learn a new "hobby"(and they seem to be related to entertainment..)  - and I haven't read her fiction, maybe she is so fantastic she is going to be right at the top of the list when Americans decide "I need some entertainment! I will buy some with my all too thin cash instead of food!" , or maybe she has such faith in her non-fiction PJMedia gig that she will see herself through the storm.  but I suspect the market she is will be shrinking. Plenty of old books around for when the power is out.  And sites like PJMedia may  very well be shut down by executive order for sedition (that is if they allow anything resembling the internet to remain "up")  It does say in her Bio she has "too many" Cats.. wonder how they taste?

Maybe it was some of her writing sytle, or it was a flashback and I didin't pick up on it...anyway something made me wonder about her age.  well, now that that's cleared up...

Cats?  I might (or might not) be able to eat somebody else's cat...my own?   ::speechless::  I doubt it.  I'd have to be really really desperate.

As for taste...most everything is like chicken, right?

 Nope they taste like fish.
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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2013, 08:05:45 PM »
Cats?  I might (or might not) be able to eat somebody else's cat...my own?   ::speechless::  I doubt it.  I'd have to be really really desperate.

As for taste...most everything is like chicken, right?

Put sweet and sour sauce on it and it'll taste like anything you want.  (Years ago, a Chinese joint in lower Manhattan was cited by health inspectors for having cats in the freezer.)

Offline AlanS

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2013, 06:13:37 AM »
Cats?  I might (or might not) be able to eat somebody else's cat...my own?   ::speechless::  I doubt it.  I'd have to be really really desperate.

As for taste...most everything is like chicken, right?

Put sweet and sour sauce on it and it'll taste like anything you want.  (Years ago, a Chinese joint in lower Manhattan was cited by health inspectors for having cats in the freezer.)

And I prefer Doberman over Chihuahua.
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Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2014, 09:18:00 AM »
Ah, the fun of watching Normalcy Bias slowly wash away

Via Instapundit, the new Hoyt on SHTF

A lot more practical this time. 

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I’ve found that the worst doesn’t normally happen. To expect the worst to happen in catastrophic situations is just as unreasonable as to expect the best to happen. Neither are realistic outcomes.

Well, no, they are realistic, just not as likely. There is a difference.   But yeah, our Best outcome is a Fed that just becomes impotent and a country that peacefully descends into third world standards of living. Our Worst case is a Civil war in which the Govt uses WMDs to implement a police state. Yes, the actul events will probably be between the two.

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For instance, even if we seem to be heading towards a cooling period (we’ve had maybe three hot days so far this year) I don’t expect us to revert to the age of cavemen and hunt mammoths. It’s a very inconvenient mode of the human brain that we tend to think in stories. So when we talk about a crash people expect the middle ages. In fact, that is in the article at PJM. The middle ages are grossly unlikely. Grossly, bizarrely unlikely. Technology doesn’t go backwards when the economy and society collapse. It just becomes… dingy.My experience in Portugal through the hard times is that electricity became… unreliable. Food on shelves became iffy (so you stockpiled when you could) and there were a hundred others daily inconveniences. I understand if it had advanced all the way to a communist state it would have got even worse, but never, mind you, like the middle ages. Here’s the thing, even in the soviet union, life was dingy, dangerous and icky, but it was still life in an industrial state.

Yes, this is correct. We will not ALL return to a late 18th century standard of living.  But the cost of fuel, the unreliability of electricity, dangerous foodstuffs, crime are going to take their toll, and the poorly manned and stock hospitals ( Free Healthcare!)  will not be able keep everyone alive.  Parts for machines are harder to get.  Travel is more dangerous.  It may not be the middle ages or the late 18th century- but our levels of production will be dramatically lower, many will starve.  May be sicken an die.  Many will be killed in robberies and rapes. Nasty. Brutish. Short.  They all still apply even if you can occasionally still get a signal on your cell phone when the stars align.

 
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Arrange for unreliable power/net. Spare batteries for your laptop might seem like a ridiculous precaution against collapse, but in the end if you make a living from intellectual work, you need your laptop to work. Get three. Get four. Keep them charged.

Seriously.  Yes I know, this is a hold over from last time.  Its seems like a better idea would be finding a way to get power even when your grid isn't available.  One of those small solar backup rigs with a small bat system and 100W inverter will run your laptop - and probably cost the same as 4 spare specialized batteries for a laptop. And you can plug it in to something else. But no, I don't expect many people will be earning a freelance living from "intellectual" pursuits requiring a laptop. Your opportunities for such things will be strongly curtailed.  No I don't know what I will be doing yet, other than working my farmlet,  but I know that my current revenue stream simply can't be counted on -- sure I can run a laptop if required, but its far more likely I will be using such power to run water pumps and turn grain mills.

 
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I guarantee as rough as it will get here, it will be worse everywhere else. Americans are often not aware of the extent to which the world depends on America. And that worries me, because I remember the seventies. It’s going to get very, very rough.

Everyone will be affected, however there are likely going to be places where things are better ( a subjective term) - if you can fit into the native population.  Expect a major resurgence in nationalism and racism. When times are tought you take care of your own first, and most won't consider other races to be their "own" - that is an American idea.

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We’re Americans. We don’t give up. And believe it or not, if some of the primary source stuff I’ve read on WWII is true, Obama is in fact true to his idol, FDR. And we pulled out from that one.

Did we? Social Security was repealed?  The Commerce clause no longer applies to a man growing corn on his own land for his own cattle?  Employers no longer provide Health insurance as a "perk"?

None of the damage FDR did was really overturned or repealed or undone. He established precedents even where things returned to normal ( Blue Eagle Laws, Internment camps)  The damage was lasting - and an entire generation convinced that there should be a chicken in every pot.  And they voted for it, again and again. Without FDR, Obama would have had a lot more work to do .  Obama isn't the cause of our problems,  he is just the last in a long line of problem causers.

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I suspect it’s too late to avoid a crash, but not to late to make sure it’s temporary and not as deep as it could be.

Now put your shoulder to the load and lift!

I won't be lifting until reality has culled this herd of human sheep and  deep is needed for that. Sorry.
 But even if I was going to try and lift, its going to take DECADES. "Temporary " is not a word I would use to describe an event that will take 1/3 to 1/2 of a human lifetime to complete.  If making that 30 years  instead of 20  rids us of the human vermin and moral rot of leftism, I will gladly take the extra 10 years.  And Yes, that makes it unlikely I will see the end of it before I die, but maybe my children will.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2014, 10:13:25 PM by Weisshaupt »

Offline Libertas

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We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2014, 02:36:13 PM »
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I suspect it’s too late to avoid a crash, but not to late to make sure it’s temporary and not as deep as it could be.

Now put your shoulder to the load and lift!


I won't be lifting until reality has culled this herd of human sheep and  deep is needed for that. Sorry.
 But even if I was going to try and lift, its going to take DECADES. "Temporary " is not a word I would use to describe an event that will take 1/3 to 1/2 of a human lifetime to complete.  If making that 30 years  instead of 20  rids us of the human vermin and moral rot of leftism, I will gladly take the extra 10 years.  And Yes, that makes it unlikely I will see the end of it before I die, but maybe my children will.


Exactly Weisshaupt.  When I read that my first (somewhat guilty) thought was "I want the crash to be deep" because otherwise it's just going to be pain and suffering with nothing to show for it. If the kernel of leftism is not destroyed in the fires of collapse, then there will never be a meaningful recovery. People have to learn how to link cause and effect, and the ones who can't or won't will simply have to be culled by nature.
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Offline Weisshaupt

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2014, 08:50:34 AM »
Oh boy, more happy pills for Hoyt



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Depressed now? Don’t be. The president is simply doing what he said he’d do (the promises he keeps aren’t the ones made full voice, before the cameras. They’re the ones you have to read between the lines for.) He wanted to be the anti-Reagan and undo everything Reagan did. (The 80s amnesty, misjudged though it was, was an attempt at controlling immigration.) But here’s the reason to hope. They’re rays of light in deep darkness, but they are NOT oncoming trains.

Yes, there is the end of the tunnel, and there is daylight, but the train is between us and it. If you prefer to think the train's light is out, go ahead, it is- the people driving it have no idea what they are doing. But the track of history is before them.. and I expect the train will stay on it more or less.

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There’s reason to think this terroristic insanity of Islam is because they can’t stand before the modern world, and their religion can’t cope with it. Historically, no culture ever kept the future at bay no matter how bellicose it got. ..

Russia is in bad shape. What we’re seeing now is the final lashing out of the dying bear. Yes, I too have met the trolls going around claiming that the birthrate in Russia is “resurgent”. Unless they’re reading my future history and making people in labs, bullsh*t. They have other issues which have only got worse since the end of the cold war: troop training and discipline; equipment failure… the list goes on. For all of Putin’s bluster and the very real harm he can inflict to the Eastern European countries, Russia is a failed state, ruled by mobs.

n many ways the havoc Hitler wreaked was because Germany was mortally wounded. And Europe has grown fat and lazy, used to Americans defending it, so they have virtually no resistance to even a toothless enemy.

There is nothing more dangerous than desperate people. So a Mob rampaging across Europe in this cultural death throws, preparing that country for an invading Caliphate is a good thing?

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We’ve whipped ass in the Middle East, and we’ll do it again. Why it’s not unalloyed hope – we might very well lose cities to this and as for Israel… pray for Israel.

Who is "we"? The middle East will be on its own this go around.

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Look, I’m not one of the ones who say “let it all burn” – I have children and an (adopted) grandson. Letting it burn will burn many of the good people; many of the good things we love about our country. Letting it burn, as the other side knows, is to invite a totalitarian regime. (Only it’s as likely to be ultra-religious/social conservative “Big Man” as communist. More, actually. But never mind.)

and then proceeds to state

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Look, guys, there is a reason that despite massive vote fraud – trust me on this, there was – they still needed to suppressed the GOTV effort on the other side, via the IRS. They’ve got nothing. They’re the kid trying to stop the tide with his hands.
What can’t go on, won’t go on...Their ideas, that frothy hodge podge of self-loathing from the west after WWI and undigested Marx, have proven what they are: somewhere between lethal and plain dumb.And now that we know that, they’re spent.Will they try to stampede us anyway? Well, of course. I think part of the Children’s Crusade is to bring in teens to recruit to put us down if we riot. (Rolls eyes.) This is part of the problem of the left. You see, they think in stories, not in real world. In their story Fast and Furious would work, because if we sent a bunch of American guns to Mexico, then revealed the death toll, Americans would recoil and demand all guns be banned. Do you see that working? Anywhere but in a not-very-good-novel of the type the establishment pushes? No, neither do I. But to them it made perfect sense.t’s entirely possible that they think Central and South American teens will “terrorize” and “Win” against an armed US populace with who knows how many veterans. Because you see, the South American teens are “dispossessed” and “Proletarian” so in their story, they win. (Rolls eyes again.) This is the quality of mind we’re up against. They’re not stupid. They’re exquisitely taught to work in a world that doesn’t exist.

As I have said before their battle is with reality, not with us.. but is this not an admission that there is no POLITICAL solution? That they are DUMB enough to start a war with the American people and cause untold amounts of damage? See? Train.  Coming Towards Us.






Offline Libertas

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Re: Sarah Hoyt on TEOTWAWKI:Galt's Network
« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2014, 01:30:55 PM »
And it ain't Thomas the Train a coming!
We are now where The Founders were when they faced despotism.