Author Topic: Just commodities  (Read 37838 times)

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Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #40 on: May 16, 2011, 07:22:37 AM »
Statistics...

The skill of the analyst meets the sophistication of the investor and then slams into the fragile psyche of the herd...there is enough variables that reality can either transfer in whole, not at all or something in between depending upon how those pieces react.

But remember, we are told "All is well!", unemployment, inflation...these are just "transitory"!  So is human life, so is the tenure of a bureaucrat!
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Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #41 on: May 16, 2011, 10:12:09 AM »
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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charlesoakwood

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #42 on: May 16, 2011, 10:42:54 AM »

This genie is a view into internal problems of China. 

Banks trying to keep money tight. So much demand people seeking alternative sources of funding.
Visions of early to mid-twentieth century wildcatters.

or

How ya going to keep them down on the farm after they've seen Paree'?


Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #43 on: May 16, 2011, 11:11:06 AM »
"How ya going to keep them down on the farm after they've seen Paree'? "

Heh, nicely put!   ::thumbsup::
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charlesoakwood

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #44 on: May 20, 2011, 12:42:32 PM »

While searching for market clues Fibonacci appears again.

Quote
The chart below  is a daily chart of spot gold. Within this chart is 2 Fibonacci retracement sequences. The longer of the two sequences begins in February 2011 following the January correction (1308). The high for both sequences is the record top of 1577. Using a technique known as Fibonacci harmonics we look for points in which these two Fibonacci sequences overlap or are very close in price.





There is a harmonic band at 1479/1474. The 38% retracement of our long sequence is 1474 and the 50% retracement of our short sequence is 1479.  Gold would trade to an intraday low of 1461, however on a closing basis gold never traded below 1474. This harmonic band would prove to be a strong support level. As of now 1461 could very well be the low of this correction. Based on our current Elliott wave count after the conclusion of this corrective wave we will begin a final impulse wave.

The "we will begin a final impulse wave." part sounds ominous.


It's About Liberty link to Kitco article


Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #45 on: May 21, 2011, 09:18:22 AM »
Yeah, and warp speed always follows an impulse burn!

 ::speechless::

I figured something in the $1500 range was the new support, thanks for getting that data Charles.  Now we'll see if people wise up (I doubt it) or if the PTB's continue business-as-usual and provide more impulse!
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Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #46 on: May 23, 2011, 07:24:05 AM »
$33-35 support level for Silver seems to be established.  It's floating in the high 34's right now.  I hear rumblings that another round of QE could be coming...QE3 would kick-start another rally in PM's!

Also, came across the note linked below.  I like Zerohedge, and this take on CFTC, Silver & the market is a good read.  Some of the folks commenting make good points too, but Zero's popularity draws in many types so sidebars and off-topic discussions are common.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/things-make-you-go-hmmm-such-cftcs-endless-investigation-silver-manipulation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
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charlesoakwood

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #47 on: May 23, 2011, 09:52:51 AM »

""Endless" Investigation Of Silver Manipulation"

They'll get their man. This is how they got the Bass brothers.  What they were doing was legal until "they" decided it was illegal and busted them.   hmmm, think it was the Carter people that nabbed them.


Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #48 on: May 23, 2011, 10:24:33 AM »

""Endless" Investigation Of Silver Manipulation"

They'll get their man. This is how they got the Bass brothers.  What they were doing was legal until "they" decided it was illegal and busted them.   hmmm, think it was the Carter people that nabbed them.



I believe you are right!
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charlesoakwood

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #49 on: May 31, 2011, 09:47:45 AM »

On Varney, *Gil Morales said his expectation is up to $50 silver and $1700 to $2000 gold.

*
Gil Morales, thevirtueofselfishinvesting, protege of William O'Neil and current principal and CEO of the money management firm Gil Morales & Company, is a self-described plunger.


Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #50 on: June 01, 2011, 07:12:33 AM »
Self-described plunger...is that a confession?!  ;D

Did he give a timeframe?  I could see those targets at year end.
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charlesoakwood

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #51 on: June 01, 2011, 10:08:03 AM »

He predicted the drop right before it happened and sold as of the 23rd he's back in until it hits his prediction.




Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #52 on: June 01, 2011, 11:23:00 AM »
Thanks Charles.

I think QE3 is going to be too irresistible for these idiots to pass up, so more impetus to push precious metals beyond what is already there pushing it is all but certain.  Buying back in makes perfect sense to me.  Or, for those like myself who stayed in, buying more!

 ::thumbsup::
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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charlesoakwood

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #53 on: June 01, 2011, 05:59:33 PM »

The siren song thought that the 1980 high dollar equivalent is 2200 keeps me holding and watching. 
I probably won't make it to 22.

 

charlesoakwood

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #54 on: June 06, 2011, 09:45:07 AM »
 ::gaah::

Economist Dennis Gartman Is ‘Nervous,’ Cuts His Gold ...

Jun 03, 2011 · Dennis Gartman , the economist and editor of the Gartman Letter who correctly forecast 2008’s commodities slump, cut his gold position by half today and ...
www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-03/?gartman-sells-50-of-gold-holding-after-decline-says..

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Market Nuggets: Gartman Re-Establishes Long Gold Positions

06 June 2011, 08:59 a.m.
By Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

(Kitco News) -- Newsletter writer Dennis Gartman says he is re-establishing his long gold position. He closed half of his position early Friday on fears of a further correction, “and in retrospect we were right to have done so for the risks were large.” However, Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report left the Federal Reserve no choice but to aggressively maintain easy monetary policy, prompting Gartman to “get back that which we sold.” Even when he exited some of his position Friday, Gartman says, he was not bearish but simply less bullish for the time being. He continues to favor gold in non-dollar terms and notes, as of when he wrote his Monday's daily The Gartman Letter, gold was below where he sold it Friday in euro terms and only marginally above where he had sold it in sterling terms. “Little damage, if any, has been done, and the trends are still firmly in our favor. We return then to what we had had previously, likely to less fanfare than when we exited.”

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com

 ::gaah::


Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #55 on: June 06, 2011, 11:20:55 AM »
Wha...???

WTF kind of economist is this?  What good news was he seeing from the imbecilic PTB's that have been driving the dollar down and unemployment, debt and regulation up that made him skittish and jump out?  And then more bad news comes on Friday and oops, time to jump back in?  His readers must be asking wtf they are subscribing to this clown!

 :P
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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charlesoakwood

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #56 on: June 06, 2011, 12:01:31 PM »
[blockquote]
Quote
May 17, 2011
 ...
Billionaire financier George Soros, who called gold "the ultimate bubble", dumped almost his entire $US800 million ($757 million) stake in bullion in the first quarter, well before a commodities slump blamed partly on reports he was liquidating his holdings.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ultimate-bubble--soros-sells-out-of-gold-20110517-1equp.html#ixzz1OWH7NtJq

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/05/31/good-as-gold-george-soros-sells-the-metal-buys-the.aspx

May 31, 2011

Even the most successful investors in the world can't agree on how to interpret this. John Paulson is buying gold. George Soros, selling. ...
But there is a better way to invest in gold now. Just watch Soros. Soros is selling his gold but buying miners.
[/blockquote]

Soros is selling gold........sort of.




Offline Libertas

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #57 on: June 06, 2011, 12:06:30 PM »
Yeah, that doesn't smell good to me...getting to the source means he has more leverage to manipulate and control...I don't like Darth Soros having control over squat!

Seriously, I cannot stand that man, and I cannot say what I really think, but this is an ominous move IMO and one which could have major implications for just about everybody.
Irrumabo!  GOP? - Nope. No more. They made their bed, now let them die in it.*
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Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #58 on: June 06, 2011, 12:17:33 PM »
His readers must be asking wtf they are subscribing to this clown!

Ranking the Gurus..

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/ranking-gurus.html


Most of the so called experts have no idea what to make of this-- its uncharted waters.. The world's reserve currency is at stake, the geo-politics are really complicated, and we have elements in our own government rooting for and trying to plan our collapse.  It makes it hard to predict. Or does it?:

http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/return-of-order-in-stock-market.html

In theory we are seeing order return to the market. Of course he doesn't know if this is investors figuring it out, or if it is thr Fed creating the order artificially.

Eitherway, I am pretty much betting on bad news, and Gold is not going to plunge to $300 an oz in one day. If it looses $400 in value then something is up, $50 moves is the the volatility we can expect.
 




Online Weisshaupt

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Re: Just commodities
« Reply #59 on: June 06, 2011, 12:26:39 PM »
Yeah, that doesn't smell good to me...getting to the source means he has more leverage to manipulate and control...I don't like Darth Soros having control over squat!

Seriously, I cannot stand that man, and I cannot say what I really think, but this is an ominous move IMO and one which could have major implications for just about everybody.


Soros sold mostly paper holdings.  You have to rememeber that not all gold on Comex is backed by physical metal. If you are investing in Gold any you aren't holding, then you better be  playing manimpulation/momentum/short-term plays. Eventually the demand for the physcial metal will result in a game of musical chairs, and its best to have your chair in hand if you are going to be playing for the long haul.