It's About Liberty: A Conservative Forum

Topics => General Board => Topic started by: Weisshaupt on May 28, 2011, 08:31:46 AM

Title: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 28, 2011, 08:31:46 AM
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-bad-moon-rising_571563.html?nopager=1 (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-bad-moon-rising_571563.html?nopager=1)

Quote
One, the political process, which has been ugly for some time, is going to get a whole lot uglier. You thought the Republicans and Democrats were vicious when they were fighting over a growing pie? Just wait until they finally catch on that the pie has to start shrinking.Two, anybody who tells you what is likely to happen in 2012 is fooling themself. One way or the other, the country has voted for the status quo in just about every election for the last thirty years. What do they do when they realize that they can't vote for the same thing anymore? The tiresome pundits don't know, the statistical "gurus" don't know, and the wonky poseurs don't know. If they say otherwise, it's simply proof that they don't really get it.
Make no mistake: there's a bad moon rising on Washington, and it's foreshadowing a politics of decline that is going to dominate the election of 2012, and beyond.

And I took a swag at the possibility of growth restoring sanity yesterday  using an excel spreadsheet.   (https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AlABW6ZkRMavdDhwSnVfbE9XVG94Q3o5MzRMNnlOUUE&gid=1)

Bottom line, you have to make some pretty unrealistic assumptions if you want this to pan out without Social Security/Medicare reform.
As the  results in NY 26 show- people are not willing to face the problem. (http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/28/a-treatment-for-mediscare/)
And people in this country are by and large just not willing to give up on SS/Medicare.  However cutting benefits and/or elimination of those programs is really the only way out without some sort of partial default ( and I would argue that not paying what you promised, even if they were drunken promises you made the night before while trying to get voters into bed, is still a type of default, and the seniors defaulted upon will be sure to see it that way too. ) And who are thoses seniors? Political Calculations worked it out (http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2011/05/when-youre-84.html)

But run some numbers for yourself.  The tool does not account for any increased Social Security or Medicare tax revenue as a result of high GDP - you can simulate that by bumping the Hauser's law collection rate up to 20% or so. ( I will also humbly accept corrections to the tool  I think its outputting the right numbers, but doublechecking me isn't a bad idea)
This tool is really just meant to be a quick swag for understanding the magnitudes involved. It obviously should be counted on to give accurate answers to the penny or the dollar.

The Chart also seems to load slowly on IE- wait patiently. Or use Google Chrome for a browser - its faster when dealing with Google Docs.

Case 1:

1)Cutting and freezing  spending at current receipts (2.6 Trillion Assuming a 10% growth rate in a GDP of 14.9 Trillion and applying all funds over 2.6 trillion to the debt, and assuming an average growth rate in SS/Medicare of 6% (per the CBO), and assuming 18% of the GDP comes in as Federal Revenue,  the debt would still reach 16 Trillion in 2024 before it began to fall. And 10% GDP growth over the next decade is unlikely to say the least.  
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: RickZ on May 28, 2011, 08:55:57 AM
As the  results in NY 26 show- people are not willing to face the problem. (http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/28/a-treatment-for-mediscare/)

I think that's a bit of an overstatement.  You're talking one Congressional district in Upstate NY where a fake TEA Party candidate drew enough votes away from the Republican to ensure a Democrat win.  On top of that, in NY, when it comes to special elections, the Party hacks sit in a non-smoke filled backroom and pick a candidate based upon cronyism, favoritism, or the old 'it's their turn'.  When the Party does not have a primary to actually pick a candidate, but one is forced upon the voters, one can only hope against hope for a victory.  To me, the lesson of NY-26 is the Republican Party does poorly in an election when the candidates are picked (NY-23 in '09 is another example), whether by party hacks or the media.  We saw the media pick McCain in '08 and look at  how that worked out for us.  This time, the media is trying its damnedest to get Romney picked as the Repubbie candidate because they know Romney is beatable by Obama, just on RomneyCare alone.  How can Romney argue against ObamaCare?  The media know this, and that's why there are all these positive -- for now --  stories about Romney, about him being the 'frontrunner'.

One way to ensure the Republican Party actually picks their own candidate is to have closed primaries nationwide.  That's the first issue in a laundry list of issues, including voter registration/vote fraud (with more severe penalties called for than are currently on the books; I'm okay with the death penalty), getting a national Voter ID law passed (where the government issued photo ID matches up with the name AND address of the person wanting to vote to the precinct in which they are trying to vote), an end of same day voter registration, as well as curtailing the overuse of absentee ballots (military, planned trips, and the like are fine).  When the People no longer have trust in the integrity of elections, only bad things can come of that attitude.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Dan on May 28, 2011, 09:57:10 AM
Admittedly, I know very little about that race, but my impression is you're spot-on Rick. The Tea Flagger was a spoiler and clearly did his job by skewing the election results.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 28, 2011, 10:14:11 AM
I think that's a bit of an overstatement.  You're talking one Congressional district in Upstate NY where a fake TEA Party candidate drew enough votes away from the Republican to ensure a Democrat win. 

See I don't think anyone serious about their vote was fooled by that, and I believe ( perhaps mistakenly) that in a GOP leaning district, most people take their vote seriously. I agree there were problems with candidate selection, and I can't think of any election I have voted in where I voted FOR someone. I always voted for the guy that sucked the least.  Face it, McCain would have sucked as a President. He just would have sucked less than Obama.  Point is, I think voters are used to making those decisions.  I think the mediscare tactic worked, and I think it will work again, because people want to vote for the status quo - and over the last 50 year the status quo has been pretty darn good, because we were always growing.  Now the reverse is going to, and must, occur, and I don't think the general population is ready to face that fact yet. A Lot of conservatives aren't ready to face that yet - hence the criticism of Ryan from all corners.

If we do the right things, right now, we might minimize some of the hurt. I just don't see the manifest political will to do it. And sure we might obtain a victory here and there, but if the sea of public opinion is against fiscal responsibility, and nothing turns that tide,  any victory will be short lived and hollow. Say the debt limit stands firm - a victory right?  (and the assumption in my spreadsheet) and we have good growth of 3-4% by reducing legislation and regulation (another victory!)  but without entitlement reform the debt wave washes over us and we default. After talking to lots of elderly at tea party rallies, it seems they are out there trying to cut spending to save SS and Medicare. Bottom line, to get out of this, we simply can't maintain anything that looks like status quo.. reducing to 1-1.5 trillion makes for reasonable outcomes, but I doubt again there is political will to cut the fed budget back to that level.  And we haven't even started talking about State debts and pensions
  
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: rickl on May 28, 2011, 10:31:21 AM
I expect to see more fake Tea Party candidates next year, because the tactic worked.  All the left has to do to win elections is come up with ways to split conservatives and moderates.

And a huge percentage of the population is in denial about entitlements and pensions.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Pandora on May 28, 2011, 10:41:50 AM
Quote
... it seems they are out there trying to cut spending to save SS and Medicare.

Yes.  It doesn't help, either, that discussions of Ryan's plan are based on doing just that, "saving Medicare".  Tuning into radio discussions by conservatives and I find that's the way it's presented.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 28, 2011, 10:45:14 AM

I expect to see more fake Tea Party candidates next year, because the tactic worked.  All the left has to do to win elections is come up with ways to split conservatives and moderates.

And a huge percentage of the population is in denial about entitlements and pensions.

True, and a political outcome in NY should not be considered a bellwether.  NY culture is one of the most disassociated from the norm in the nation.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 28, 2011, 12:39:29 PM
Quote
... it seems they are out there trying to cut spending to save SS and Medicare.

Yes.  It doesn't help, either, that discussions of Ryan's plan are based on doing just that, "saving Medicare".  Tuning into radio discussions by conservatives and I find that's the way it's presented.

In real life its reforming SS and Medicare so they are essentially welfare systems - oh you made too much - you no longer qualify for the benefits your premiums paid for.
We have to present it as "saving" the system - in effect practicing the Liberal "framing"  or lying by getting others  to assume things before the discussion starts.  The fact we must do so I think demonstrates that no one wants to confront this reality .. and you centainly can't win an election by doing so. But that is what must be done. If we don't, soverign default is the only other path.

I hope NY was not a harbinger of what is to come, and it fell the way it did because of the false candidate, but given my personal conversations with others, I fear that wasn't the only factor in operation.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Pandora on May 28, 2011, 12:45:25 PM
Quote
... it seems they are out there trying to cut spending to save SS and Medicare.

Yes.  It doesn't help, either, that discussions of Ryan's plan are based on doing just that, "saving Medicare".  Tuning into radio discussions by conservatives and I find that's the way it's presented.

In real life its reforming SS and Medicare so they are essentially welfare systems - oh you made too much - you no longer qualify for the benefits your premiums paid for.
We have to present it as "saving" the system - in effect practicing the Liberal "framing"  or lying by getting others  to assume things before the discussion starts.  The fact we must do so I think demonstrates that no one wants to confront this reality .. and you centainly can't win an election by doing so. But that is what must be done. If we don't, soverign default is the only other path.

I hope NY was not a harbinger of what is to come, and it fell the way it did because of the false candidate, but given my personal conversations with others, I fear that wasn't the only factor in operation.


What's that?  Under Ryan's plan?  The way I understand it is for 55 and older, nothing changes from the present method.  Under 55, come retirement, vouchers are issued from the Feds to be used to purchase private insurance.  Is it the latter portion that is proposed as sliding scale/needs-based?  What do I have wrong or am missing?
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 28, 2011, 12:59:30 PM
What's that?  Under Ryan's plan?  The way I understand it is for 55 and older, nothing changes from the present method.  Under 55, come retirement, vouchers are issued from the Feds to be used to purchase private insurance.  Is it the latter portion that is proposed as sliding scale/needs-based?  What do I have wrong or am missing?

That is my understanding, though I haven't read the plan itself (http://budget.house.gov/UploadedFiles/PathToProsperityFY2012.pdf) (why read something that you know will never make it into law, and just the constitutional justifcation offered  at the beginning dirves me batty. Any system of wealth distribution HAS NO Constitutional justification !!!!).  However, multiple alternat  sources I have read  suggest that is the case. Here is one.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/04/paul-ryans-medicare-plan-obamacare-for-seniors/237409/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/04/paul-ryans-medicare-plan-obamacare-for-seniors/237409/)
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Pandora on May 28, 2011, 01:25:02 PM
Hmmm.  That's the first I've heard of "govt-approved insurance exchanges" ......

From The (actual) Plan, page 44:

Quote
Save Medicare for current and future generations while making no changes for those in and
near retirement. For younger workers, when they reach eligibility, Medicare will provide a
Medicare payment and a list of guaranteed coverage options from which recipients can choose
a plan that best suits their needs. These future Medicare beneficiaries will be able to choose a
plan the same way members of Congress do. Medicare will provide additional assistance for
lower-income beneficiaries and those with greater health risks.

Page 45:

Quote
This budget *** ends the raid on the Medicare trust fund that began with passage of the new health care law last
year. ***  It ensures that any potential savings in current law go to shore up Medicare, not to pay for new
entitlements. In addition to repealing the health care law’s new rationing board and its unfunded long-term care
entitlement, this budget stabilizes plan choices for current seniors.

(*** Obamacare takes 500 billion dollars out of Medicare to fund itself, keeping in mind these are imaginary dollars we don't have.)

Oy.  *sigh*

Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 28, 2011, 02:34:56 PM
Hmmm.  That's the first I've heard of "govt-approved insurance exchanges" ......

From The (actual) Plan, page 44:

Quote
Save Medicare for current and future generations while making no changes for those in and
near retirement. For younger workers, when they reach eligibility, Medicare will provide a
Medicare payment and a list of guaranteed coverage options from which recipients can choose
a plan that best suits their needs. These future Medicare beneficiaries will be able to choose a
plan the same way members of Congress do. Medicare will provide additional assistance for
lower-income beneficiaries and those with greater health risks.

Page 45:

Quote
This budget *** ends the raid on the Medicare trust fund that began with passage of the new health care law last
year. ***  It ensures that any potential savings in current law go to shore up Medicare, not to pay for new
entitlements. In addition to repealing the health care law’s new rationing board and its unfunded long-term care
entitlement, this budget stabilizes plan choices for current seniors.

(*** Obamacare takes 500 billion dollars out of Medicare to fund itself, keeping in mind these are imaginary dollars we don't have.)

Oy.  *sigh*



Page 44 is saying 55 and over things stay as they were before ObamaCare.  Those under 55 will have options of choice like Congress.  I've always heard Congress had the best.

Page 45 is creating a new system whereby monies withheld from paychecks or paid in will actually go into an account that cannot be used as politicians petty cash box.

Are we close to the same page?
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Pandora on May 28, 2011, 04:27:12 PM
Hmmm.  That's the first I've heard of "govt-approved insurance exchanges" ......

From The (actual) Plan, page 44:

Quote
Save Medicare for current and future generations while making no changes for those in and
near retirement. For younger workers, when they reach eligibility, Medicare will provide a
Medicare payment and a list of guaranteed coverage options from which recipients can choose
a plan that best suits their needs. These future Medicare beneficiaries will be able to choose a
plan the same way members of Congress do. Medicare will provide additional assistance for
lower-income beneficiaries and those with greater health risks.

Page 45:

Quote
This budget *** ends the raid on the Medicare trust fund that began with passage of the new health care law last
year. ***  It ensures that any potential savings in current law go to shore up Medicare, not to pay for new
entitlements. In addition to repealing the health care law’s new rationing board and its unfunded long-term care
entitlement, this budget stabilizes plan choices for current seniors.

(*** Obamacare takes 500 billion dollars out of Medicare to fund itself, keeping in mind these are imaginary dollars we don't have.)

Oy.  *sigh*



Page 44 is saying 55 and over things stay as they were before ObamaCare.  Those under 55 will have options of choice like Congress.  I've always heard Congress had the best.

That's Congress, and currently.  That's legislation written to favor 535 people with regulations mandating what medical insurers must offer them in terms of choices, i.e. "Cadillac "Health" Plans", for which choices we pay the lion's share.

Some of these same Ruling Class are now going to decide for millions what choices we may have by picking winners in the medical insurance market, via approved pools, from which to choose?  They're going to decide what "benefits" are to be included/excluded for me and you and him and her and them?  That's virtually no different from what happens now in various States and what Obamacare mandates.

Why not trust in the market to respond rationally to millions of retiring seniors with $8K (Fed subsidization figure bandied about) to spend on medical plans by offering choices to meet their needs and wants according to them?  Why not let Catastrophic Plans develop in the market and remove governmental roadblocks to Health Savings Accounts and let people run their own affairs?

Quote
Page 45 is creating a new system whereby monies withheld from paychecks or paid in will actually go into an account that cannot be used as politicians petty cash box.

Yeah, yup, sure.  Sez who?  New system.  Right.  New boss, same as the old boss.

Quote
Are we close to the same page?


Well, we read the same page(s); I've a feeling we differ on our reactions.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 28, 2011, 06:37:47 PM

I trust Paul Ryan more than Harry or Barry. This is the closest we've been to having our money go where it's designated since LBJ and every lying politician since.

As long as we have a Republic we will have representatives.  Paul Ryan has the best (only valid) plan and as it is we either trust Ryan, support him and others who support him or we turn it over to Boehner & Co.  I know what Boehner & Co will do.

It is easy to be sceptical, why not, they have done nothing to earn trust.  I do believe there are politicians in Washington who are trying to do the right thing and I believe Ryan is one of them.  I will not cut him off at the knees by nit picking him. My support goes to Ryan & Co.


Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Pandora on May 28, 2011, 07:03:13 PM

I trust Paul Ryan more than Harry or Barry. This is the closest we've been to having our money go where it's designated since LBJ and every lying politician since.

As long as we have a Republic we will have representatives.  Paul Ryan has the best (only valid) plan and as it is we either trust Ryan, support him and others who support him or we turn it over to Boehner & Co.  I know what Boehner & Co will do.

It is easy to be sceptical, why not, they have done nothing to earn trust.  I do believe there are politicians in Washington who are trying to do the right thing and I believe Ryan is one of them.  I will not cut him off at the knees by nit picking him. My support goes to Ryan & Co.




I'm not nit-picking Ryan; I'm critical of the plan.  Different.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 28, 2011, 07:13:55 PM

[comment withdrawn]



 
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: rickl on May 28, 2011, 10:09:43 PM
Medicare needs to go away.  By which I mean that people who are already dependent on it should be able to stay on it, but younger folks like me need to understand that it will not be available to us.

I read somewhere that it's actually illegal for an insurance company to write a medical policy for people over 65.  They have to go on Medicare unless they are able to pay out of pocket.  Think about that.

Back in the mid-60s when Medicare was being debated, opponents said that it was a foot in the door for socialized medicine.  Proponents pooh-poohed those concerns.  Well, we now know who was right about that.  Medicare threw a monkey wrench into free-market medicine, and now we are reaping the consequences.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Sectionhand on May 29, 2011, 05:25:42 AM
It almost stretched my understanding to the breaking point when the American people elected that stupid bastard in 2008 . Therefore , if the Democrat Party lies effectively enough about SS / Medicare , it's not such a wild idea that the son-of-a-b*tch will be re-elected . I'm not hedging my bets or anything like that . I've simply become conditioned anymore to expect the very worst from my fellow Americans .
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Glock32 on May 29, 2011, 09:32:45 AM
It almost stretched my understanding to the breaking point when the American people elected that stupid bastard in 2008 . Therefore , if the Democrat Party lies effectively enough about SS / Medicare , it's not such a wild idea that the son-of-a-b*tch will be re-elected . I'm not hedging my bets or anything like that . I've simply become conditioned anymore to expect the very worst from my fellow Americans .

Regarding the stupidity of people, and their unwillingness to confront reality, I have decided to start looking at it as a positive thing. We need for the now-unavoidable head-on collision with that oncoming locomotive to happen, and sooner rather than later.

Steyn has a recent article in which he writes, paraphrased, "My colleagues like to point out 'decline is not inevitable; it is a choice'. Well, just the other day in NY's 26th district the voters chose it."
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Dan on May 29, 2011, 09:46:11 AM
It almost stretched my understanding to the breaking point when the American people elected that stupid bastard in 2008 . Therefore , if the Democrat Party lies effectively enough about SS / Medicare , it's not such a wild idea that the son-of-a-b*tch will be re-elected . I'm not hedging my bets or anything like that . I've simply become conditioned anymore to expect the very worst from my fellow Americans .

There really is only one way to solve this...
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: LadyVirginia on May 29, 2011, 10:09:51 AM
I've simply become conditioned anymore to expect the very worst from my fellow Americans .

Maybe--
that image we have of the greatness of America isn't due to ALL citizens participating in the riches and bounty of  this country then suddenly in the 20th century deciding to become mopes.  More likely the 10% that believes in hard work and the principles of liberty just dragged the rest along. Now it's just getting harder and harder to cover for them.



Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 29, 2011, 10:28:14 AM
It almost stretched my understanding to the breaking point when the American people elected that stupid bastard in 2008 . Therefore , if the Democrat Party lies effectively enough about SS / Medicare , it's not such a wild idea that the son-of-a-b*tch will be re-elected . I'm not hedging my bets or anything like that . I've simply become conditioned anymore to expect the very worst from my fellow Americans .

There really is only one way to solve this...

The event is coming. We don't know what it will look like, but something that can't continue, won't. Your fellow "americans" ( can someone who rejects all of the founding principles becalled an "American?") will riot, and kill each other. The government won't be able to feed them and many will starve. Austerity will kill even more in hospitals for lack of doctors and drugs and "approved proceedures" .  Eventually they will clash and give the government an excuse to institute martial law, and at some point after they will give us a Tiananmen Square event - which hopefully will finally wake people up, and we can finish this.  Otherwise, we just wait till the institution collapses underneath its own weight, and the locusts starve to death that way. The real problem is, in order to avoid either scenario, they will start WWIII somewhere,  issue the ration books, and call austerity "a patriotic effort to win the war" - really thats what FDR did - FDR  was probably just sorry that so many returned home with some silly idea that they were fighting for freedom, and not a chicken in every pot.


 Ryan's plan is as good as any right now, still wrong in that it obliagtes others to pay for people who should be earning thier own way. Seniors  had an entire lifetime during some of the greatest economic booms mankind has ever seen  to prepare and as a group they are the wealthiest indivduals to ever walk the face of the earth, and they  don't have enough money to pay for thier own insurance? However, Ryans plan at least puts choice back into the mix - excatly like School vouchers would let the disadvantaged pick thier own schools. Better, but still not volutary participation ...  and moot because Borat will veto it. we have 2 more years and another 2-3 Trillion to add to the debt before we can even get our hands on the steering wheel in the best case, and that might very well be too long to wait. Our creditors have already told us they will stop buying, and the Fed is the buyer of most of the issued bonds. They are hoping for a steady controlled decline in the dollar - 10-20% a year, and trying to avoid the overnight crash. But its up to others (like china ) to go along with that. They have reasons to do so since they are also heaviliy invested. However, if they think they can grab the worlds reserve currency for themselves, they will do it- dollar be damned.



Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: AlanS on May 29, 2011, 11:10:31 AM
I'm not sure what or when it's going to happen, but I'm damned sure going to protect my property and my family. I'll assist a few select others.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: old crank on May 29, 2011, 11:46:39 AM

Okay, I've been warned to speak up or go away.  (WHY?  Why can't I read all these opinions silently?)  If obliged to comment, I will say that the group seems to be unanimous in its foreboding.  I have this same feeling about the public fisc, the markets, the prospects for inflation...general economic doom.  But I don't have it about the 2012 election.  I too do not believe the NY election was about Medicare - I too believe it was lost on account of the spoiler.  My family used to joke about my invincible naivete, and maybe I am overly influenced by the conservative blogs and websites that I frequent, but I simply cannot believe America will buy another term of Obama now that they've seen him.  I voted for McCain (disappointed Guiliani fan), but I liked Obama in 2008, admired his speechifying, thought him personally charming, and I can see how independents could go for him.  But TWICE?  When he is clearly in over his head?  Independents, I believe, tend to be independent as a way of saying A pox on both their houses!  They find politicians slippery and unreliable (it's true) and don't know enough about issues of governance to make a choice between the two pox-ridden parties.  They just go with their gut, and God knows Obama was more personable than McCain, and could make a speech too.  But I do have faith in Americans - sort of like the wisdom of markets - and I believe we have enough collective brains to reject the man now that we've seen him in action.  Or inaction.     
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: IronDioPriest on May 29, 2011, 12:08:52 PM

Okay, I've been warned to speak up or go away.  (WHY?  Why can't I read all these opinions silently?)

Actually, you specifically weren't warned of anything OC. (I wouldn't characterize it as a warning, but rather an administrative notification, but that is beside the point.) I've made it clear several times that the notification is for unused accounts - as in: zero posts. You had three, and now four, so the notification was not aimed at you. What we are trying to shed with these notifications are people with no intention of ever posting.

If obliged to comment, I will say that the group seems to be unanimous in its foreboding.  I have this same feeling about the public fisc, the markets, the prospects for inflation...general economic doom.  But I don't have it about the 2012 election.  I too do not believe the NY election was about Medicare - I too believe it was lost on account of the spoiler.  My family used to joke about my invincible naivete, and maybe I am overly influenced by the conservative blogs and websites that I frequent, but I simply cannot believe America will buy another term of Obama now that they've seen him.  I voted for McCain (disappointed Guiliani fan), but I liked Obama in 2008, admired his speechifying, thought him personally charming, and I can see how independents could go for him.  But TWICE?  When he is clearly in over his head?  Independents, I believe, tend to be independent as a way of saying A pox on both their houses!  They find politicians slippery and unreliable (it's true) and don't know enough about issues of governance to make a choice between the two pox-ridden parties.  They just go with their gut, and God knows Obama was more personable than McCain, and could make a speech too.  But I do have faith in Americans - sort of like the wisdom of markets - and I believe we have enough collective brains to reject the man now that we've seen him in action.  Or inaction.    
The entirety of your opinion is valid and welcome. Glad you decided to share it.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: charlesoakwood on May 29, 2011, 01:02:12 PM

Quote
I will say that the group seems to be unanimous in its foreboding.

Almost all.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: rickl on May 29, 2011, 01:19:14 PM
old crank:
The periodic purging of unused accounts is not the same as banning.  All you have to do to keep your account current is post a comment once in a while.  It can be about a music video, the weather, or a baseball game.

Even if your unused account gets purged, you can simply re-register.  Like I said, you won't be banned just for lurking.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: IronDioPriest on May 29, 2011, 01:29:34 PM
old crank:
The periodic purging of unused accounts is not the same as banning.  All you have to do to keep your account current is post a comment once in a while.  It can be about a music video, the weather, or a baseball game.

Even if your unused account gets purged, you can simply re-register.  Like I said, you won't be banned just for lurking.

That's exactly right. I try to make that clear in the notifications - perhaps I could do more or better. This is solely an effort to make sure the member roll is populated with people who use the site for its intended purpose, and that the membership numbers at least somewhat reflect actual user numbers. It's just a method to keep things "real" so that we can keep a handle on the growth of the site with real numbers.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Weisshaupt on May 29, 2011, 04:31:15 PM
But I don't have it about the 2012 election.  I too do not believe the NY election was about Medicare - I too believe it was lost on account of the spoiler.  My family used to joke about my invincible naivete, and maybe I am overly influenced by the conservative blogs and websites that I frequent, but I simply cannot believe America will buy another term of Obama now that they've seen him.  

I hope you are right and NY doesn't indicate anything other than the some  people can be fooled with a spoiler.  Of of course that kinda negates the idea that they are smart enough to vote Obama out once they have seen him. You are either paying attention or you aren't, and a great many Americans aren't.

However even if we do Vote out Borat, it may be too late to change course. It might even be the plan - to let Obama vacate the office 30 seconds before the Titianic strikes the Iceberg.  You already see Bernake positioning the debt ceiling as the event that will cause a crisis, and people saying  the Tea Party is at fault for any crisis that does occur because they are  opposing new taxes.

We are rapidly running out of time. I lost hope when we didn't take the Senate. It demonstrated not enough people understand the mess we are in, how dire it is, or the consequences of inaction. We were on this course before Borat, but Borat (and to be Fair, Bush) has advanced the timetable by at least a decade. SS was supposed to be running surpluses till 2020 - that date came 10 years earlier. A new monetary crisis does not mean an end to America, or even Argentina style collapse. It does mean a dramatic lowering of our standard of living - and an end to America as a superpower - who presides over that change matters, but they won't be able to stop it no matter who it is. Its not the end of the world, but the end of the world as we have known it. . We may be able to recover in the long run and become what were once - even better. But it will be a long hard slog, and I probably won't live to see it. I hope my kids might- so I am doingeverything I can to ensure they will be prepared for the new environment.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: John Florida on May 29, 2011, 07:25:38 PM
N.Y. 26 went the same way N.Y. 23 went with a spoiler. N.Y. 23 meant nothing to the dems but they are trying to sell it as a sign from the gods and it means nothing.Same state same election same results no affect on 2012 same as N.Y. 23 the dems got their butts kicked.
Title: Re: Bad Moon Rising
Post by: Dan on May 29, 2011, 08:44:30 PM
Weisshaupt: "...Your fellow "americans" ( can someone who rejects all of the founding principles becalled an "American?")..."
 No, to be blunt. I think you're q is rhetorical and that we agree on it's premise. It's certainly becoming more clear to me that being an American is not a birthright or a matter of geography. It's a mindset. I also fully believe that the term 'domestic enemies' would specifically apply to so many people to day that the founders would probably scold us for being so...Ida know..patient...lazy(?)...comfortable...distracted...there are certainly many adjectives and theories. But there's little doubt, in my mind, that we've allowed way too much stupidity into the governing process.

Lady V: "that image we have of the greatness of America isn't due to ALL citizens participating in the riches and bounty of  this country then suddenly in the 20th century deciding to become mopes.  More likely the 10% that believes in hard work and the principles of liberty just dragged the rest along. Now it's just getting harder and harder to cover for them."
I've heard of the "80/20" rule in sales, where 80% of the sales of an outfit are garnered by only 20% of the sales force. I've seen it used elsewhere and I think it could easily apply here, but I hope it's closer to 20 than 10!
I'll have to admit that 10% might even be too high, though.

I had a conversation just yesterday with my SiL's re: TSA and neither one knew what teh 4th Amendment was. Not surprising really. The sad part was one of them travels w/ the family often and was a little too proud in saying her girls know the drill...bags open, shoes off, water cups empty, etc.
They're trained. Docile, complicit, and clueless.
If something happens, she's the type who will gladly and quickly beg the gov't for stability so she can gat back to American Idol and hair appointments.
None of 'em, wife included, understand that the Constitution, even with the flaws, is the only reason for our security and prosperity.
Next time it comes up, I'll ask why they think the U.S. is where it is.
Then I'll have to get my BP down to normal before I respond.