It's About Liberty: A Conservative Forum

Topics => Politics/Legislation/Elections => Topic started by: trapeze on March 13, 2012, 10:02:04 PM

Title: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: trapeze on March 13, 2012, 10:02:04 PM: Ron Paul hardest hit (with zero delegates).

Quote
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rick Santorum has won Mississippi's Republican presidential primary - completing a two-state sweep of Deep South contests. Santorum narrowly edged rivals Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney to win Mississippi.

Earlier, Santorum won Alabama's GOP primary with a slightly wider margin. Evangelicals played a key role in both states. Nearly 4 of 5 voters surveyed in exit polls called themselves born-again or evangelical.

LINK (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GOP_CAMPAIGN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-03-13-19-28-31)

Hawaii will come in in another three hours or so but I think that Romney is supposed to take that one.
Alabama Results
(75% precincts reporting)

Rick Santorum
35%   153,164   9 delegates

Newt
Gingrich
30%   129,542   6 delegates

Mitt
Romney
28%   124,617   5 delegates

Ron
Paul
5%   21,908   0 delegates
Mississippi Results
(with 92% precincts reporting)
Delegates not yet assigned.

Rick
Santorum
33%   86,221   0

Newt
Gingrich
31%   82,202   0

Mitt
Romney
30%   79,113   1

Ron
Paul
4%   11,577   0
Someone please explain the point of the Ron Paul thingy. Seriously, I would like to know.
Estimated Delegate Totals (includes today's primaries)
Gingrich 103
Paul    40
Romney    437
Santorum 194

These numbers are why I have resigned myself to a Romney nomination. The other three combined are still 100 delegates back from Romney. You know he will win CA and NY. Santorum or Gingrich will probably win TX (plus a few pity delegates for RP) but that won't be enough. I heard somewhere today that Santorum is counting on some kind of a brokered convention strategy but that sounds like quite a stretch. If he had Gingrich's and Paul's delegates then maybe that would have a shot but I don't see it myself.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Libertas on March 13, 2012, 10:24:45 PM: This is huge. Romney continues to struggle in the South, something that if you do you it not only bodes ill for the GOP nomination, but pretty much writes your epitaph in a general election if you are indeed a conservative! I think the South knows who a conservative is and it is not Mitt Romney. Santorum beating out Newt in these two states really shows something too, and that both pushed Mitt to third is sending a clear message about Romney.

If Romney stills pulls out the nomination I think these results in the South will doom his chances in the general and all the RC/E-GOP/Rovian blather about needing to woo the Indy's won't be worth a bucket of cold spit. However, if things continue to swing Rick's way I may yet be able to show up to the poll on November 5th sober.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Glock32 on March 13, 2012, 10:26:13 PM: Here's the real story that isn't being reported -- Santorum, a devout practicing Catholic, carried the Deep South. This negates the media narrative about the deeply Protestant South being hostile territory.

Catholics and evangelical Protestants have a common enemy in this statist regime.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: trapeze on March 13, 2012, 10:36:36 PM: I think you are being unrealistically negative, Libertas.

I am disappointed that Romney is going to be the nominee* because that means (IMO) that he will be elected president and I see that as a wasted opportunity.

O'Bongo is not going to be re-elected. My three legged dog could beat O'Bongo. An old banana peel could beat O'Bongo. His polling numbers are, I think, worse than Carter's. And if they aren't then they will be. The country is totally in the sh*tter and that BS about everything being Bush's fault isn't washing anymore (if it ever did).

This election will be won or lost over REAL unemployment and gas prices. And to a lesser extent over (fallen) home values and home foreclosures. I also see inflation making a late entry into the pre-election misery index.

Gas prices alone are going to have a ripple effect that is too terrible to imagine.

O'BongoCare just came in at twice the cost originally promised.

If there is any good news for the re-election effort of Team O'Bongo I do not know what it is.

Iran and Israel will probably be at war inside of the next 6 months and usually a president could count on getting some sympathy and patriotism votes from a war but in this case I don't see it. An Iran/Israel war will more likely be seen as a result of foreign policy bungling. Afghanistan is on a path to rapid deterioration with USA loss of life augmented by the vision of us losing the war and being forced out or turning tail and running away.

Again, none of this is good news for O'Bongo.

Anyone can beat him and it's just a shame that we don't have a better candidate. But you play the cards you are dealt. In this case O'Bongo has the worst hand available and we can play virtually anything to beat him soundly.

*and seriously, Romney didn't lose by much. He ended up with close to a third of the total votes in MS and AL. Although Santorum got the victory in both states it was just barely a victory. These two primaries were as close to a three way tie as you can get.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 13, 2012, 10:49:54 PM: Quote
If he [Santorum] had Gingrich's and Paul's delegates then maybe that would have a shot but I don't see it myself.

Conversely the same for Newt.

I think Newt is also looking forward to an open convention, he said
if that were to happen the pick would be one of the three and not
a non candidate. And, just as Santorum he has his own plan for
that occasion.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Libertas on March 13, 2012, 10:51:00 PM: Well, glass half full or half empty...I could be half full like you if your 3-legged dog (I'll call him "Lucky") we're running in Mitt's place.

Anyway, how bad will the hounding on the general election campaign trail be if the eventual nominee fared so poorly in the South? What would be the impact of a thrid party candidate (Paul has not disavowed taking that route)? On the facts and performance alone, yes, you are correct, pretty much any creature with a pulse should wipe the floor wtih Obama. But the Left does not play fair - not their candidates, not their party, not their MFM, not their local officials. And our so-called side always ties their own hands behind their backs, refusing to wage total war against these punks. Plus I'll never underestimate the size of the domestic population that is so willfully uniformed.

To say Obama is going to be a pushover no matter who the nominee is missing half the equation. People need reasons to vote for someone as much as they need a reason not to vote for someone else.

We'll find out soon enough.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: trapeze on March 13, 2012, 10:56:20 PM: I can guarantee you that the South will not be fooled into voting for O'Bongo. They will crawl naked across broken glass to vote for anybody other than President Zero. They hate him. I mean they really, really hate him. They hate him with a visceral passion that is not unlike the intensity of the core of the sun. Trust me...whoever has the Republican nomination will not have to even campaign in the South. It's a done deal.

I think that there is a real chance for Santorum to lobby for the veep spot. I think that's his end game. Newt is just trying to be a spoiler. Paul is irrelevant.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: charlesoakwood on March 13, 2012, 11:01:10 PM: Quote
http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,5126.msg56212.html#msg56212 (http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,5126.msg56212.html#msg56212)

O'Bongo is not going to be re-elected. My three legged dog could beat O'Bongo.

This election will be won or lost over REAL unemployment and gas prices. And to a lesser extent over (fallen) home values and home foreclosures. I also see inflation making a late entry into the pre-election misery index.

He has alienated or is in the process of alienating every civilized human being in the U.S. The only pools that he can draw voters from are the chronically dependent portions of union membership, socialists, dole recipients and the demented. And only a percentage of this group will find their way to the poles election day.
If he wins we will know the fix is in.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: trapeze on March 13, 2012, 11:06:26 PM: And the three legged dog's name is "Ginger" and she's a she...

(http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/569/gingermh.jpg)
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Libertas on March 13, 2012, 11:17:30 PM: I'll take her over Willard! ;)

Glad to see all is well then, I have no worries and can rest easy.

I'm gonna hold ya to that! ::oldman::

Of course if it all goes sideways, it won't matter who is at the helm, though some may wish their guy wasn't stuck holding the bag!

The dark, dirty secret is that whoever wins the election this November is going to be at the controls, but unable to stop the collapse. The elections are meaningless unless the debt is brought under control immediately. Not next month, next year, or gradually. The can has been kicked to the end of the road. Unless the cuts are massive and immediate, the end is near. Everyone knows that is not going to happen. Democrats won't even propose a budget or even talk about balancing one. Republicans are too obtuse to understand the ramifications of not stopping the unconstitutional, non-enumerated profligate programs that are doing the destruction. Soon we will be forced into austerity whether we like it or not, and it will not come without extensive pain. There will be conflicts, and there will be deaths that follow. There will be lawlessness, and there will be great strife. The über-rich will survive, but the middle class will be disintegrated. The inevitable all happened while we were being lied to by the left. They didn't want prosperity for all; they wanted power for themselves.

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/03/we_are_all_libertarians_now.html#ixzz1p3s3lb5k (http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/03/we_are_all_libertarians_now.html#ixzz1p3s3lb5k)
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Sectionhand on March 14, 2012, 04:59:12 AM: While the news media continues to harp on the "Anyone buy Romney" theme , they carefully avoid the larger theme which remains pregnantly avoided but exists nevertheless ... " Anyone but Stymie " . It's real and they know it .
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Libertas on March 14, 2012, 08:54:40 AM: Quote from: trapeze on March 13, 2012, 11:06:26 PM
And the three legged dog's name is "Ginger" and she's a she...

(http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/569/gingermh.jpg)

Ohh, what a sweetie! ::grouphug::
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: John Florida on March 14, 2012, 09:20:23 AM: Quote from: Libertas on March 14, 2012, 08:54:40 AM
Quote from: trapeze on March 13, 2012, 11:06:26 PM
And the three legged dog's name is "Ginger" and she's a she...

(http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/569/gingermh.jpg)

Ohh, what a sweetie! ::grouphug::

She looks like she loves her Daddy.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: AmericanPatriot on March 14, 2012, 10:23:01 AM: She is adorable.

But maybe we can go to the convention with "none of the above" as the leading candidate for the nomination
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: trapeze on March 14, 2012, 01:12:39 PM: LINK (http://hotair.com/archives/2012/03/14/just-a-reminder-romney-won-the-delegate-haul-last-night/)

As I suspected Romney came out last night the winner. Despite coming in third in AL and MS he still garnered more delegates than anyone else because of overwhelming wins in Samoa and HI.

So he lost AL and MS but he didn't lose by enough to matter. This is the depressing delegate math. Romney is, short of something bizarre happening, going to be the nominee. I am not happy about this but I can accept it.

I am also happy to see Santorum stay in all the way to the end because I think that it puts Romney in the box of having to at least act like a conservative. Santorum will hold his feet to the fire and maybe something will happen to make things somewhat better in the end.

In any event, apart from that, I am ready to get on with the general election. Perhaps Romney will shed the "good guy" persona after he has been on the receiving end of an O'Bongo attack. That's the one thing that Romney needs more than just about anything else...a killer instinct. Right now he doesn't have that. Right now he is content with the fantasy approach to O'Bongo...the "he's a good guy who is just in over his head" mentality is wrong. Very wrong. If Santorum's presence in the primary can accomplish anything I hope that it forces Romney to start treating O'Bongo as the existential threat to the country that he clearly is.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: John Florida on March 14, 2012, 01:55:01 PM: I hate to say it but it's time for Newt to bow out if we want a shot at Mitt to get nailed.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Pandora on March 14, 2012, 02:03:28 PM: Quote from: John Florida on March 14, 2012, 01:55:01 PM
I hate to say it but it's time for Newt to bow out if we want a shot at Mitt to get nailed.

As Rush explained it, Newt's said that between him and Santorum, they've got 70% of the electoral votes.

If Newt gets out now, the remainder will be split two, not three, ways.

I don't know if any of them can drop out and dedicate or promise their votes to another candidate, do you?
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: trapeze on March 14, 2012, 02:11:31 PM: Quote from: Pandora on March 14, 2012, 02:03:28 PM
I don't know if any of them can drop out and dedicate or promise their votes to another candidate, do you?

Someone leaving the race can endorse whomever they like but I think that their delegates remain where they are until after the first vote at the convention. After that all bets are off.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Libertas on March 14, 2012, 02:14:09 PM: Delegates are usually free to do what the want once they reach the convention, the candidate to whom they were pledged could endorse someone else and ask his pledged delegates to consider that choice but nothing is set in stone until the national convention.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Libertas on March 14, 2012, 02:28:45 PM: Heh, RP loses his last embed...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/03/nbc-pulls-ron-pauls-last-embed-117436.html (http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/03/nbc-pulls-ron-pauls-last-embed-117436.html)
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Pandora on March 14, 2012, 02:34:39 PM: Quote from: trapeze on March 14, 2012, 02:11:31 PM
Quote from: Pandora on March 14, 2012, 02:03:28 PM
I don't know if any of them can drop out and dedicate or promise their votes to another candidate, do you?

Someone leaving the race can endorse whomever they like but I think that their delegates remain where they are until after the first vote at the convention. After that all bets are off.

Thanks, that's who I meant - delegates.

Okay, so, then, perhaps Newt intends to stay in to the bitter end, hoping his and Santorum's delegates will merge for either of them and against Romney?
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Libertas on March 15, 2012, 07:05:18 AM: If you have Newt bow out and the split of his supporters falls more to Mitt than Rick then Rick does not benefit, it would be better if Newt stayed in and then horse trade at the convention if the nomination is still in play.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Pandora on March 15, 2012, 11:46:25 AM: Quote from: Libertas on March 15, 2012, 07:05:18 AM
If you have Newt bow out and the split of his supporters falls more to Mitt than Rick then Rick does not benefit, it would be better if Newt stayed in and then horse trade at the convention if the nomination is still in play.

That's what I'm sayin'.

You said it better.
Title: Re: Santorum Wins Mississippi and Alabama Primaries
Post by: Libertas on March 15, 2012, 12:54:07 PM: Quote from: Pandora on March 15, 2012, 11:46:25 AM
Quote from: Libertas on March 15, 2012, 07:05:18 AM
If you have Newt bow out and the split of his supporters falls more to Mitt than Rick then Rick does not benefit, it would be better if Newt stayed in and then horse trade at the convention if the nomination is still in play.

That's what I'm sayin'.

You said it better.

::curtsy4::