It's About Liberty: A Conservative Forum
Topics => Politics/Legislation/Elections => Topic started by: IronDioPriest on September 24, 2011, 10:52:52 AM
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Byron York, WashEx....
In FL straw poll, a late surge for Herman Cain (http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/fl-straw-poll-late-surge-herman-cain)
ORLANDO -- There's no scientific polling, but talks with dozens of delegates who will vote in today's Florida straw poll suggest that many are making last-minute decisions to vote for Herman Cain.
What seems to be happening is this: A lot of delegates came to Orlando planning to vote for Rick Perry. But Perry's poor performance at Thursday night's Fox News-Google debate gave them pause and re-opened the question of whom they will support. And many of the conservatives who were attracted to Perry will, when asked for a second choice, naturally gravitate to Cain, who, it just happens, had a particularly good debate on Thursday. So with Perry not commanding the loyalty he did just 48 hours ago, Cain appears to be picking up support.
It's not an exaggeration to say that everybody likes the Georgia businessman. The question is whether delegates view him as an actual contender for the Republican nomination. At the moment, his support is at 5.6 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, putting him in sixth place in the race, behind Perry, Romney, Paul, Bachmann and Gingrich. Not exactly a juggernaut.
Given that, it is not at unusual at all for delegates here to say, "I love Herman Cain, but I just don't think he can win." And that, to committed Cain supporters, is a source of great frustration. "Because of the people who say they love him but he can't get elected, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy," says a man named Jimmy from Wilbur-By-The-Sea, Florida. "If they would all just love him and support him and not say, 'Well, can't get elected so I'm going to pick Romney or Perry' -- if they would all just love him and get behind him, he'd be the guy."
Could Cain actually win? It seems unlikely, but it's an outside possibility. Cain's fortunes depend on whether the delegates here decide to vote strategically -- to support the candidate they consider the most likely to win the Republican nomination and go on to general-election victory -- or to vote their principles and let practical matters work themselves out later. If the delegates go the latter route, a lot will choose Herman Cain.
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Herm's my man!!! ::danceban::
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Cain's fortunes depend on whether the delegates here decide to vote strategically -- to support the candidate they consider the most likely to win the Republican nomination and go on to general-election victory -- or to vote their principles and let practical matters work themselves out later.
I hate that "strategic voting" crap with the heat of a thousand suns. I'd rather vote for the candidate I think is best and let the chips fall where they may.
The word "electable" is not in my vocabulary.
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It's easy to look good in a debate when everybody is shooting at someone else, in this case Perry. The focus is on him by the media and everybody is targeting him. if Cain becomes the national target, then we will actually see how good he does under similar fire. But so far, these debates haven't been equal. Just saying.....
And of course, when you have a long track record in politics like Perry, the opposition has a lot of material to use against you, whereas, newcomers don't have that liability. Just saying....
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Cain has shown a proclivity to speak rashly without thinking and lose control of his message. Still, I love the man, and think he would make a fine President.
I hate the electability crap too. But it is a cold hard truth that in order to affect policy one must get elected. If not for that, we might elevate Rush Limbaugh to the Presidency. So the question reality demands is, as Buckley said, who is the most conservative candidate who can win? Problem is, you never know unless you take a chance and push it, and if ever there was an election that begged both risk and caution in that regard, this is it.
The next 14 months are gonna suck.
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I hate the electability crap too. But it is a cold hard truth that in order to affect policy one must get elected. If not for that, we might elevate Rush Limbaugh to the Presidency. So the question reality demands is, as Buckley said, who is the most conservative candidate who can win? Problem is, you never know unless you take a chance and push it, and if ever there was an election that begged both risk and caution in that regard, this is it.
Yep, that's why I continue to support Sarah. She's the best we have by a mile, and it's time for a Hail Mary pass. Or, to mix sports metaphors, you want your best hitter at the plate with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.
If she doesn't win, then we have to go to Plan B, which is probably better not discussed in public.
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I hate the electability crap too. But it is a cold hard truth that in order to affect policy one must get elected. If not for that, we might elevate Rush Limbaugh to the Presidency. So the question reality demands is, as Buckley said, who is the most conservative candidate who can win? Problem is, you never know unless you take a chance and push it, and if ever there was an election that begged both risk and caution in that regard, this is it.
Yep, that's why I continue to support Sarah. She's the best we have by a mile, and it's time for a Hail Mary pass. Or, to mix sports metaphors, you want your best hitter at the plate with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.
If she doesn't win, then we have to go to Plan B, which is probably better not discussed in public.
I want her to get in if for no other reason, so that we can see what happens to the race. The intelligentsia seems to think that she has no chance, and looking at polls, I've started to doubt. But I won't believe it until she gets in and can't gain traction, and if she doesn't get in, we'll never know.
All I know is that our pallet of candidates seems to be elevating the people who should not be our nominee, and leaving those who might be acceptable behind. I wanna see what Palin could do before resigning myself to vote for someone I don't support. And I wanna see her push the race for the nomination in her direction. Our direction. Bachmann, Cain, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul have only been able to do that in a stunted fashion. Palin would drag the rest of the field kicking and screaming.
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Cain's fortunes depend on whether the delegates here decide to vote strategically -- to support the candidate they consider the most likely to win the Republican nomination and go on to general-election victory -- or to vote their principles and let practical matters work themselves out later.
I hate that "strategic voting" crap with the heat of a thousand suns. I'd rather vote for the candidate I think is best and let the chips fall where they may.
The word "electable" is not in my vocabulary.
Ditto.
"Not electable"? Who sez? NO ONE is electable if people don't vote for them; it's circular reasoning, it's its own self-fulfilling prophecy, it's refusing to choose until and unless a bunch of other people make the same choice and this is exactly how the individual's choice gets made for him by the pundits and the media.
Hate, indeed.
Sheep, baaaaaa .............
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"Not electable"? Who sez? NO ONE is electable if people don't vote for them; it's circular reasoning, it's its own self-fulfilling prophecy, it's refusing to choose until and unless a bunch of other people make the same choice and this is exactly how the individual's choice gets made for him by the pundits and the media.
Yep. As I recall, the conventional wisdom in 2008 was that McCain was the most "electable" Republican. We saw how that worked out.
He would have lost by 20 points if he didn't have Palin as his running mate. If it hadn't been for the stock market crash, she might very well have dragged his sorry ass across the finish line.
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I never trust polling unless I see the criteria used in the poll. Most are slanted to a political belief.
So don't tell me Sarah Palin can't defeat hussian obama because of a "poll". ::cussing::
I hope she gets in. I believe she will wait until November.
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Cain has improved greatly and has figured out how to convey his message to the audience. Typical businessman analyzing how best to present his product. ::admiration:: His presentation will however need to improve exponentially to make it to top two. And that also includes being able to elaborate on topics he's not versed in such as immigration, "high walls and wide doors" is lyrical and if he fills it in (and other topics) equally as well he will vault. I think he is the person best able to do that.
The results, allowing for Paulinian skew, will be interesting.
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Wow, did I completely miss an exclusive or what? York’s account closely matches what Sarah told me last night: Perry’s supporters at the GOP event seemed demoralized Friday, while Cain’s supporters were fired up.
We don’t yet know how this will translate to straw-poll votes — the result will be announced about 5 p.m. ET today — but I’m kicking myself for not going with Sarah’s report when she first told me about it.
::hat-tip:: The Other McCain (http://theothermccain.com/2011/09/24/cain-mania-in-orlando/)
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Cain pulling out a win or a strong 2nd in the Florida straw poll would be a big deal.
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And the Winner is...Herman Cain!
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Really!?! Woo-hoo!!!
Hopefully that'll give his campaign some needed juice.
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I like it. This will throw the professional talking heads into a tizzy, which is always a good thing.
Although Cain has had some missteps, I still like him better than either Perry or Romney.
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::hat-tip:: The Other McCain (http://theothermccain.com/2011/09/24/cain-mania-in-orlando/)
Comment at The Other McCain:
My only question is, will he treat Obama with the respect the office of the President deserves, or will he rip into him and tear him a new asshole. Anybody that does the latter, and can be counted on to continue doing the latter, has my support.
Heh.
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His campaign website is down due to all the traffic. I like his tax proposal, not just the figures, but the elimination of a byzantine tax code that has been designed for generations of social engineering. Revenue is very much a secondary role of the tax code. No effort to roll back government will succeed without breaking the back of the tax code.
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Final straw poll results from Florida (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/24/final-poll-results/)
Herman Cain, 37.1%
Rick Perry, 15.4%
Mitt Romney, 14.0%
Rick Santorum, 10.9%
Ron Paul, 10.4%
Newt Gingrich, 8.4%
Jon Huntsman, 2.3%
Michele Bachmann, 1.5%
...Godfather Pizza CEO Herman Cain won (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/24/herman-cain-wins-cpac-florida-straw-poll/)
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... And the bottom drops out for Bachmann. I'll continue to look forward to her moving the debate in a constitutional direction, but I think I am coming to grips with the reality that she peaked in Iowa.
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If you've followed him over the years via his radio how and columns you can get a good feel as to how he thinks. If and that's a big if, America can elect such a principled man then America could have a fighting chance at survival.
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Final straw poll results from Florida (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/24/final-poll-results/)
Herman Cain, 37.1%
Rick Perry, 15.4%
Mitt Romney, 14.0%
Rick Santorum, 10.9%
Ron Paul, 10.4%
Newt Gingrich, 8.4%
Jon Huntsman, 2.3%
Michele Bachmann, 1.5%
...Godfather Pizza CEO Herman Cain won (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/24/herman-cain-wins-cpac-florida-straw-poll/)
... And the bottom drops out for Bachmann. I'll continue to look forward to her moving the debate in a constitutional direction, but I think I am coming to grips with the reality that she peaked in Iowa.
She can gain some ground but she's got to cut the hyperbole.
Also, she's in the MSM ditch and must work up credible TV facetime in order to secure more questions at the next debate.
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I don't think so Charles. Just my gut. I think the conservative electorate got a look at her, liked her guts and obvious love for the constitution, but then got to know her, and found out that she's not presidential.
I have always thought that she is right where she belongs - as my representative. She votes right almost every single time. I don't have to pester her or wonder how she'll come down on key issues. That is something of great value, and she should be proud to occupy that role.
I'm glad she's running. Her voice needs to be heard. But I really think that the idea of her becoming president was flirted with after Iowa, and discarded in the subsequent weeks.
My most fervent hope is that a) she hasn't ruined her credibility here at home in the 6th, and b) that she can win here again and someday become speaker of the House.
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I don't think so Charles. Just my gut. I think the conservative electorate got a look at her, liked her guts and obvious love for the constitution, but then got to know her, and found out that she's not presidential.
I have always thought that she is right where she belongs - as my representative. She votes right almost every single time. I don't have to pester her or wonder how she'll come down on key issues. That is something of great value, and she should be proud to occupy that role.
I'm glad she's running. Her voice needs to be heard. But I really think that the idea of her becoming president was flirted with after Iowa, and discarded in the subsequent weeks.
My most fervent hope is that a) she hasn't ruined her credibility here at home in the 6th, and b) that she can win here again and someday become speaker of the House.
Well, let's hope she hangs hard, repairs her credibility at home and secures the chair of an important committee.
Electing a good person for president does no good without a solid support system in congress.
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Is this Palin's opening?
Even though I like Michelle, I never felt she was strong enough.
Not sure if this is the right word
I'm happy with Cain's victory.
The longer we can deny the Establishment's choices of Romney and Perry, the better
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I'm happy with Cain's victory for that reason too AP. I like the guy, and I like what he stands for. I like it that he's from outside politics. I like thinking about how the Left's heads would spin 360º running Obama against a Black man. Even though he's stumbled and had a few run-ins with his mouth that've made me cringe, I pretty much agree with him ideologically down the line.
But the thing about his victory in Fla that gives me the most hope and encouragement is that the grassroots - at least on this day - seems to be saying "no way" to the candidates the establishment is determined to foist upon us. They shoved a false dichotomy of Romney vs Perry upon Republicans in Florida, and they said, "Cain".
That makes me happy, at least for today.
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It's a long hard road ahead, IDP, and the destination is far from certain.
But, Bachmann's victory in Iowa and Cain's today gives me some hope that those who value Liberty stiull have a fighting chance
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I take a day off from this forum and look what happens.
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Funny, I said this just days ago...
This is the second debate in a row where I have come away with the thought that Gingrich and Cain looked the most reasonable of the lot. Cain, I think, would make a good president but I don't see him getting much traction. I hope that I am wrong on that. Gingrich I have mixed feelings about. I think he is pretty damn sharp...seems way smarter than most of the other candidates...but on the other hand he has zero exec experience and we all know how that works out. Plus, he's mainly an idea guy...big ideas. I am not convinced that he has the discipline to get any of them off of the drawing board and into law.
Sadly, if I was forced to put money down (right now, today) on who I think the nominee is going to be, I would pick Romney as the guy who is going to come out on top. Perry could have been that guy but now I don't see it happening. His intransigence on immigration is his undoing. I am not a Romney fan at all but at this point, barring something else happening, I think that he is going to win. He is this year's McCain apparently.
Sure hope that Cain can somehow pull off a miracle, though.
Wish granted.
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House Majority Leader, Michele Bachmann sounds good to me.
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Cain's got a message for Barry and to the United States.
A Failure to Lead (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ0M_rEcHls#ws)
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Final straw poll results from Florida (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/24/final-poll-results/)
Herman Cain, 37.1%
Rick Perry, 15.4%
Mitt Romney, 14.0%
Rick Santorum, 10.9%
Ron Paul, 10.4%
Newt Gingrich, 8.4%
Jon Huntsman, 2.3%
Michele Bachmann, 1.5%
...Godfather Pizza CEO Herman Cain won (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/24/herman-cain-wins-cpac-florida-straw-poll/)
Who the hell is this Michael Bachman guy?
/s
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I think Bachmann needs to throw in the towel on this. If she wants to continue poking the Ruling Class in the eye, come out and endorse Herman Cain. I just want to see the Establishment frustrated at every turn.
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So...Cain now has some traction. I hope that he is agile and deft enough to capitalize on it quickly rather than allow it to fade.
Now (putting on the strategy hat) I am going to go out on a limb here and say that, barring a huge gaffe or bizarre scandal (unlikely but you never know), Cain has probably got the veep slot locked up at this point at the bare minimum. I think that he even has a pretty good shot at the nomination.
Here's why: O'Bama has nothing substantive to run on. You can pretty much count on him bringing up the OBL killing but really that's yesterday's news. In the "What have you done for me lately?" world of media news he needs more and he has nothing. So what can he run on? Racism will be the undertone of his campaign. He will attack, indirectly through un-named sources and directly if necessary, his Republican opponent with any and every charge of racism that he can dream up. Cain is the inoculation to this pathetic strategy. If enough voters sense this then that gives Cain a significant advantage over Romney. And again, Cain can probably do no worse than veep under these circumstances.
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Yep, that's why I continue to support Sarah. She's the best we have by a mile, and it's time for a Hail Mary pass. Or, to mix sports metaphors, you want your best hitter at the plate with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.
If she doesn't win, then we have to go to Plan B, which is probably better not discussed in public.
Ya know sumptin'? I don't think the baseball's right. It's more like with Palin, it's the bottom of extra innings, down by two, no one on, two out and two strikes. Hitting a home run won't do any long-lasting good, that is, she needs to be the start of a conservative revolution, and not a One Hit Wonder that Chicago Barry is. It's a tall order as Reagan could not really do it. Can Palin do it? I don't know, but I want to give her her shot: She's rested, she's on the bench and she swings a mean bat.
AP's right: A Cain win is a loss for the Republican Party hierarchy/elite. Without a TEA Party, Cain is nowhere to be found. Running for, and being, president is not just about politics, but about ideas and agendas. IDP said it about Bachmann, that she will vote pretty much the way he thinks almost every single time, and how that is comforting. Palin has great ideas, Constitutionally right beside Reagan's theories of small government. The left only wins elections because the rest of us are lazy (and not said in too much of a derogatory manner). The left get out the registration for votes, get out the votes, intmidate for the votes, i.e., just like how Obama won. I still believe, maybe surrendering to my own prejudices, that Palin has great support in this Nation. That she gets enthusiastic crowds when she speaks. Now this doesn't mean much for than she has a name. It is her record that speaks for itself, moreso than any Repub politician running.
As an aside, I hate the format of these 'debates'. Kee-rist on a rubber tipped crutch! These denates aren't supposed to be about who asks the questions -- and how they ask them, but about those who seek from us our most precious legacy: Our vote. Let these people go at each other as well as Obama. Romney should not be sacrosanct because of RomneyCare/nanny state attitudes; Perry should not be off limits on Immigration/the security of the borders of a free and self-ruling nation-state; Palin should not be off limits for resigning the Governorship/quitting. But let me hear them actually debate something, not this made-for-tv format (compressed to fit the time allotted).
I'll add my own conceited reaons for Palin running, getting the nod and taking it to Obama: She's been through the media's trial by fire and burning at the stake. No one else comes close in experience in this area. And any Repub running thinking he's supposed to be liked just doesn't get it. The media will never 'like' them, will never go with the good of a candidate over rumor and innuendo (why break a streak?). I honestly think she's got the aplomb -- and witticisms -- to carry the day with at least 51% of the vote, or 4 2 hundred and 70 some electoral votes [Ed. - F*ck!]. I believe the media think they've killed Palin. But they underestimate her like they underestimated a guy like Reagan. There's something about brutally honest and folksy that is a winning combo with the cynics now known as the American people.
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Thanks, RickZ for the great analysis.
I have some pretty big issurs with Sarah.
But, I would get behind her in a heartbeat.
Some for reasons you stated.
She is a leader. She can fire people up and can reduce those complicated issues to simple, pithy sound bites that our ADHD addled electorate can grasp.
She makes the media march to her tune
There is no doubt she loves this country
And she's tough as nails
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The cumulative knowledge of the candidates is increasing with each debate. Whether the candidate is a winner or shoots a good zinger we are getting to know them better and better, getting a "feel" for them. At the same time the blogs and gotcha media are at work exposing foibles. Sarah Palin is not participating in this part of the vetting process, it appears she is avoiding this exposure and that is regretful.
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The cumulative knowledge of the candidates is increasing with each debate. Whether the candidate is a winner or shoots a good zinger we are getting to know them better and better, getting a "feel" for them. At the same time the blogs and gotcha media are at work exposing foibles. Sarah Palin is not participating in this part of the vetting process, it appears she is avoiding this exposure and that is regretful.
Eh..... She is likely the only (potential?) candidate who has the popularity to keep herself out of the fray of a frothing, hateful media....if she was part of this farce called debates.
Heck, she has been vetted. We all know where she stands, we know her strengths and her weaknesses. If she gets in, there will be plenty of opportunity for the media elites to "vette" her...again, and again, and again.....
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I want to see her go up against her peers.
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... And the bottom drops out for Bachmann. I'll continue to look forward to her moving the debate in a constitutional direction, but I think I am coming to grips with the reality that she peaked in Iowa.
Yeah, I had high hopes for her, but it definitely is looking like she doesn't have what it takes.
This decisive victory for Cain is going to make things mighty interesting!
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... And the bottom drops out for Bachmann. I'll continue to look forward to her moving the debate in a constitutional direction, but I think I am coming to grips with the reality that she peaked in Iowa.
Yeah, I had high hopes for her, but it definitely is looking like she doesn't have what it takes.
This decisive victory for Cain is going to make things mighty interesting!
I will be interested in Limbaugh's analysis tomorrow.
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I think Palin is very smart to stay away from this nonsense.
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Read that Cain got an influential endorsement that day. Good show.
Also Perry's crew hired some of Crist's old hands and that didn't set well.
Handlers are like used car salesmen. I hope he fired whoever hired the Crist people
and the people he hired. If you can't manage your crew you can't manage America.
Cain's crew has been chided as "amateur hour", he picked his own people and shied
away from professional hired guns. Looks like he has a loyal crew.
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Read that Cain got an influential endorsement that day. Good show.
Also Perry's crew hired some of Crist's old hands and that didn't set well.
Handlers are like used car salesmen. I hope he fired whoever hired the Crist people
and the people he hired. If you can't manage your crew you can't manage America.
Cain's crew has been chided as "amateur hour", he picked his own people and shied
away from professional hired guns. Looks like he has a loyal crew.
Now see, as I previously wrote, that is a TEA Party attitude, a TEA Party tenet of belief. No more professional pols! (A strike against Palin, as well. But I do view her different, on my side, the side against the media and the elites, against government intrusion into our lives. That Palin now hails from Alaska may be one of her best, and untapped, assets. I don't mean doing a tv reality show, but that she really does represent the last of who we as a people are -- or were. She's from the last outpost of rugged individualism. Where meat does not come in plastic from a grocery store.) Cain wouldn't be known outside of business/industry circles today unless tens of thousands of people around the country hadn't risen up in recent years (has it been that long already?) to let the government know it had overstepped its role, to petition them for redress of grievances (and 'get yer thievin' hands outta my pocket' is definitely a grievance worth being redressed).
I admit that when I first heard about Herman Cain, and listened to some of his words on YouTube, I wasn't "excited," but I was comfortable with him being in the race, as opposed to Romney. I like Cain for the fact that he is not a professional pol (although being a CEO can rightly be argued to be a political position as well as a business one), that he brings that perspective to a White House and Washington that has completely lost touch with "the business of America [being] business" -- and not the government manufacturing red tape. Not picking winners and losers, whether on a business or concept scale, like car dealerships or the glowbull warming scam. Cain brings to the table something none of the others can bring: He has not served (to my knowledge) in a political office. He, for the moment (until circumstances change), is one of us, one of the not-Washington D.C. people. I can't see Cain worrying about what the cocktail party circuit thinks (unlike Obama, who is a poll-watching vulture). Cain is bringing something to the table, he is bringing back the whole onerous concept of public duty, of doing some service in a public office, but eventually going home and back to your family and business, back to your life. (And, honestly, I don't think Cain would be running if a white Dem had been as communist as Obama has been; I think it is Obama's very skin tone that has brought Cain into the race.) When was the last time there was a serious candidate for president who hadn't held public office? Eisenhower? (It has been argued, though, being C-in-C at SHAEF was definitely a political as well as a military position.) We could do worse than Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza*. Much worse. Obama could be reelected.
* When it's put like that, it's kind of funny. But then you compare that to Obama's resume bullet point, the Annenburg Project (which was called Obama's business experience as he was on the board), well, it's not even a fair comparison. I know Obama got where he is by being lightly challenged, even pushed along; I cannot see affirmative-action as being a part of Cain's business experience. Cain is a presidential candidate who happens to be black, not a black presidential candidate. And that's a distinction with a difference.
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The anti-Fed people like to point out that he served on (I believe) the Fed Board of Governors.
Still trying to figure out whether it means anything critical
Otherwise, I like him
He has backed off the Fair Tax which I happen to like
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Cain's crew has been chided as "amateur hour", he picked his own people and shied
away from professional hired guns.
By who, professional Poli Sci retards, too cowardly to go "on record?"
Herman Cain. Second look time, for me, assuming Sarah never gets in. Who isn't capable of a gaff. But Cain appears to have that rare ability (looking at the current field) not to go full retard on his gaffs, like Bachmann or Perry or Romney or....
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I have heard it said that the Annenberg Challenge, part of the Annenberg Project, with the assistance of Arne Duncan, was responsible for turning the Chicago schools into a grievance-mongering factory.
Surprise.
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http://www.hermancain.com/about (http://www.hermancain.com/about)
Through these and other appearances on behalf of the National Restaurant Association, Herman began working with business leaders across all sectors of the American economy. This led to his acceptance of a position on the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and he was subsequently elected their chairman. In this role, he analyzed economic conditions in the region and notified the Federal Reserve of how their policies should respond.
Chairman of the Kansas City Fed. I like that.
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And the donations are rolling in...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/herman-cains-campaign-weve-had-best-fundraising-ever-in-last-48-hours.php (http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/herman-cains-campaign-weve-had-best-fundraising-ever-in-last-48-hours.php)
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ0M_rEcHls