It's About Liberty: A Conservative Forum
Topics => Politics/Legislation/Elections => Topic started by: trapeze on February 10, 2012, 09:30:29 PM
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The media is hinting that Maine is going to break for Ron Paul in tomorrow's caucus (or primary or whatever it is they call it up there).
This prediction is pretty much based on Paul spending more time there than anyone else and his purported organizational prowess in Maine. Hmmm...well, I guess we will know by this time tomorrow.
Here is a link (http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/10/will-maine-be-ron-pauls-first-gop-primary-win/) to a news story that about this.
PORTLAND, Maine — He is the only one of the four contenders for the Republican presidential nomination not to have won a state primary or caucus.
But on Saturday, Ron Paul could get his best shot at a victory in Maine, the cold, far northeastern state that has given a warm reception to his libertarian views.
Local caucusing has been under way in Maine since Jan. 29, and will continue in a few towns until March. Even so, the state Republican Party will announce the winner of its presidential straw poll on Saturday, and the Texas congressman’s strong on-the-ground organization could have a big impact.
Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, generally is viewed as the favorite here, and in the overall Republican race. After losing the last three state contests to Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, Romney is thirsty for a morale-boosting win in Maine, where he won 52 percent of the vote during his unsuccessful run for president in 2008.
Paul typically has been viewed as the Republican contender least likely to win the nomination, but he has a loyal following and this week was running second to Romney in a nationwide Reuters/Ipsos poll of Republican voters.
Paul has yet to translate that appeal into a victory in the state-by-state race for the nomination. His best results have been second-place finishes in Minnesota and New Hampshire, in both instances far behind the winner.
Speaking to supporters on Tuesday after his runner-up finish in Minnesota, Paul said he expected to do well in Maine.
The Republican organization in Maine is especially stupid if they are basing their endorsement on a straw poll that itself is based on a bunch of caucuses that have been going on for over a week and still aren't finished. So, I don't know what to think of it, what it will mean. Your guess is as good as mine...I guess.
Romney is supposed to win which sort of makes sense when you think of Romney's strength so far being a mostly regional (north east) kind of thing with Florida and Nevada demonstrating more of a displeasure with Gingrich than an excitement for Romney kind of thing.
But, after this last Tuesday's Santorum sweep and CPAC...who knows?
For what it's worth (and as goofy as Maine is...and let's face it, it is) Maine is the last contest for over two weeks. The next ones on the calendar are Arizona and Michigan on February 28th. That gives Mittens a lot of time to burn through a butt load of money trashing Santorum who, by the way, is surging in Michigan which is the traditional home of Romney outside of Massachusetts. Yippee.
Link to the primary schedule. (http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/)
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If nut-boy Paul wins Maine, good. Last time I checked, not-Romney is better than Romney.
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If nut-boy Paul wins Maine, good. Last time I checked, not-Romney is better than Romney.
I'll drink to that ::beertoast::
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What would really make people's heads explode is if Santorum won.
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So if Paul does win, that would still keep Romney in the delegate lead, but it would narrow his victories down to 3 out of 9. Santorum has no committed delegates, with 4 out of 9. Gingrich has SC delegates, with 1 out of 9. Paul would have no committed delegates with 1 out of 9.
Romney's wins: NH, where Democrats can and do vote in the GOP primary. Florida, where senior citizens are a far greater percentage of the population than they are elsewhere. Nevada, where the Mormon population is second only to Utah.
Could it be more clear that conservative middle America does not want Romney shoved down their throats? The establishment miscalculated something fierce.
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Maine & CPAC go for Mittens?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/11/romney-wins-washington-timescpac-straw-poll/ (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/11/romney-wins-washington-timescpac-straw-poll/)
Maine, OK, CPAC? WTF?!
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Romney will win everything he can buy.
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Romney will win everything he can buy.
...and still no one wants him...
except Ann Coulter and my mother...
::facepalm::
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My mother: "He's such a nice man".
::falldownshocked::
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My mother: "He's such a nice man".
::falldownshocked::
::laughonfloor::
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Less emoting, more thinking. Please! We have one shot at this!
::gaah::
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Less emoting, more thinking. Please! We have one shot at this!
::gaah::
And it looks to be waaaaaay off target. ::outrage::
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Well, we can at least take a breather now until Michigan/Arizona which are quickly followed by Super Tuesday. The only question I have at this point is whether Gingrich hangs around until then. The word is that he is running on fumes and has little to no prospects of bringing in the kind of money necessary to continue. Even his super PAC is supposed to be scaling their spending way back. These are not good signs. Not for Gingrich, anyway.
Santorum has had a large infusion of cash come in since last Tuesday. It's too bad he didn't do better in Maine.
Paul needs to hang it up. If he couldn't capture Maine after all he through into it, well, he is pretty dense about this sort of thing so I guess he will stay in it until he is flat broke.
It really is shaping up to be a two man race between Santorum and Romney.
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Paul is too stubborn to go anywhere, like his more rabid supporters.
Newt has an interesting time ahead.
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Gingrich has two big things to worry over:
1) Whether he has enough money to make it until the next debate and,
2) Whether he can turn in the kind of debate performance that will bring in both money and votes.
The big problem is that the next debate isn't this week but a full ten days away. That's an eternity at this point in his quest for the nomination. He is screwed.
This is the guy who has a love/hate relationship with the media...he loves them because they give him air time while he uses them as a punching bag. That is, they used to give him air time. Back when he was the Not Romney du jour. Now that position has been ceded to Santorum and he is yesterday's news.
So...no money...no media spotlight...no nothing. He is almost totally screwed. He overplayed his hand and is just about out of chips.
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The big problem is that the next debate isn't this week but a full ten days away. That's an eternity at this point in his quest for the nomination. He is screwed.
This is the guy who has a love/hate relationship with the media...he loves them because they give him air time while he uses them as a punching bag. That is, they used to give him air time. Back when he was the Not Romney du jour. Now that position has been ceded to Santorum and he is yesterday's news.
So...no money...no media spotlight...no nothing. He is almost totally screwed. He overplayed his hand and is just about out of chips.
...well, his minions could always dig up something on Santorum and "leak" it. Ten days is a heck of a long time to dig.
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Paul people on another forum claim they shut the election down in a Paul stronghold, Washington County because of "weather"
There have been a ton of irregularities.
Personally, I hope Paul stays in until the convention.
His value is his message of freedom, liberty and smaller government.
None of the others even pretend a whole lot about that
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So do I.
I'm beginning to hope for a brokered convention.
Could Jeb Bush be worse than Romney? Well,
maybe but I don't think so. Or possibly between
Paul and the other forces we may get an actual
conservative. I'd like to see Paul get the position
of Chief Fed Hacker with an office, staff, and subpoena
power. Go Ron Paul.
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The longer they all stay in, the less time and opportunity for the Left to target the nominee.
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Paul people on another forum claim they shut the election down in a Paul stronghold, Washington County because of "weather"
There have been a ton of irregularities.
Personally, I hope Paul stays in until the convention.
His value is his message of freedom, liberty and smaller government.
None of the others even pretend a whole lot about that
Color me stunned that Paul supporters see a conspiracy behind every shrubbery in Maine. The fact of the matter is that "they can't cheat if it isn't close" to quote a book title from Hugh Hewett. Maine was Paul's to lose with all of the resources that he dumped into that state. He lost.
Paul has won zero states. That isn't going to change. He has a handful of delegates for the sole reason that the early primary states award them proportionately. That will change soon when the state change to "winner take all" mode. Then he won't get any more.
Paul has himself to blame for this. While, as most people acknowledge, he has worthy points about fiscal and monetary policy, he is his own worst enemy in most other areas. I need not and will not bother to list them...we all know what they are by now.
I appreciate his presence in the campaign for his positions and tenacity on fiscal and monetary issues but realistically his usefulness is at an end. If he can't win Maine it's pretty much game over.
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If he can't win Maine it's pretty much game over.
One could honestly say that about either of the other ABO.
Yeah, Santorum just won 3 states but that seems to be about equal to a handful of spit.
No delegates.
I have a hard time seeing that Paul is more dangerous than Santorum.
Rick is just itching for a fight and he wants to meddle in my business.
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Give it another couple of weeks and I guess we will know if Santorum is for real.
As for Paul, I didn't see you disagreeing with me regarding his prospects.
Regardless, I will vote for anyone over O'Bongo.
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...I appreciate his presence in the campaign for his positions and tenacity on fiscal and monetary issues but realistically his usefulness is at an end. If he can't win Maine it's pretty much game over.
I've been thinking about his end game ever since (in my despair several weeks ago) I flirted with the idea of supporting him as what I saw as the last chance to stop Romney. If he really means what he says, he should be looking at the thralls that act like he's the second coming and figure out a way to pass the mantle to someone else. He needs to separate himself from the ideas he promotes. Too many of his followers act like he's the only person who can carry the torch they want carried. He needs to make sure that in defeat (because it is apparent now that he will be defeated again), he makes them understand that it was never him, it was the ideas. Maybe then someone can champion most of what he stood for, get rid of the wacky stuff, and bring some of those zealots back to reality.
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Trap, I never thought he had any chance.
But I hope he can do enough damage that Romney doesn't walk away with it
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I still see the Ron Paul phenomenon overall as a net good. Too many people have been brought into awareness of constitutional issues and fiscal crisis for me to think otherwise. The fact that he is an nonviable candidate running for president is beside the point as far as the good his candidacies have accomplished. If constitutional libertarianism forces a schism in the GOP, it needed to happen. If it causes a move toward libertarian values in the GOP, it needed to happen. The one thing that serves no good purpose and should not be allowed to continue is the Country Club Republican faction controlling the GOP's agenda. Ron Paul and his supporters are every bit as much a part of correcting that as are Tea Partiers - and I hate to say it, but they are probably more politically organized and networked.
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A wise nominee soon after selecting their Veep would get Paul to agree to be come Treas Sec in a new Admin and start cleaning up the fiscal and monetary mess the Neo-Keynesians have wrought. It might be the only way to keep his supporters motivated to vote.
Of course if that nominee is Willard it won't matter to me what that idiot does...he and the GOP can then promptly go to hell by themselves.
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Paul recently was said to have stated that he sees little difference between O'Bongo and the other three Republican candidates. That pretty much tells you all you need to know about whether Paul will do the right thing for the country as regards getting out of way.
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He really said that? Must have been to his base, eh?
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Paul recently was said to have stated that he sees little difference between O'Bongo and the other three Republican candidates. That pretty much tells you all you need to know about whether Paul will do the right thing for the country as regards getting out of way.
Sounds like the statement someone would make who is bitter and knows his time in the sun is waning.
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First, I do see a difference between O and the other 3 neo-cons.
However, could Paul be saying none of the 4 would cut government or acknowledge there is a Constitution, get government out of our lives, try to avoid war...
On those things, the difference is only a matter of degree
I didn't hear what Paul said so I could be wrong
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I have no doubt Paul thinks he can cut government better than all the others, and he may be right, but part of being able to do that is having some sort of allies to work with, I don't know how willing the Repub's would be in enacting all of what a Pres. Paul would want to do, but for that matter I don't know if they'd go along with everything a Pres. Santorum would want either, or a Pres. Newt...but my big fear is how much they would be willing to go along with everything a Pres. Romney wants!
I have to think Paul was just throwing red meat to his supporters, if he wanted to burn bridges and accept the full mantle of "crusading outsider/the only one who can" deal, then it would be in a more bold public fashion where he announces his intention to run as an independent.
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I have no doubt Paul thinks he can cut government better than all the others, and he may be right, but part of being able to do that is having some sort of allies to work with, I don't know how willing the Repub's would be in enacting all of what a Pres. Paul would want to do,
An Executive Order would do a lot. Wouldn't need Congress
but for that matter I don't know if they'd go along with everything a Pres. Santorum would want either, or a Pres. Newt...but my big fear is how much they would be willing to go along with everything a Pres. Romney wants!
Pres Santorum would be more likely to go along with a lot of what Congress wants (if it's bad) because of political expediency
There will be no Pres Newt (or Paul) so we don't need to discusss Newt
then it would be in a more bold public fashion where he announces his intention to run as an independent
Not 100% sure that's completely off the table
I'll be voting 3rd party but not sure I would vote for him as 3rd party
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However, could Paul be saying none of the 4 would cut government or acknowledge there is a Constitution, get government out of our lives, try to avoid war...
He would largely be right, especially when one considers the degree necessary to reverse the ship in all these areas with the exception of war avoidance.
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DeMint would work with Paul. Paul actually could be the catalyst of overturning
the senate to Conservatives.
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Demint is one of the very few good men in the Senate