It's About Liberty: A Conservative Forum
Topics => Economy => Topic started by: Libertas on February 10, 2012, 11:46:53 AM
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-why-gasoline-consumption-tanking (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-why-gasoline-consumption-tanking)
It's the Obama Depression, stupid!
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Driving, as measured by national Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), began to plateau as far back as 2004 and dropped in 2007 for the first time since 1980. Per capita driving followed a similar pattern, with flat-lining growth after 2000 and falling rates since 2005. These recent declines in driving predated the steady hikes in gas prices during 2007 and 2008. Moreover, the recent drops in VMT (90 billion miles) and VMT per capita (388 miles) are the largest annualized drops since World War II.
1962 DAYTONA 500 Results
Fin. Pos. Str. Car Pos. Car No. Driver Laps Money Car
1 1 22 Fireball Roberts 200 $24,190 Pontiac
2 10 43 Richard Petty 200 $10,250 Plymouth
3 4 8 Joe Weatherly 199 $7,100 Pontiac
4 3 47 Jack Smith 199 $4,025 Pontiac
5 34 28 Fred Lorenzen 199 $2,975 Ford
6 2 39 David Pearson 198 $2,075 Pontiac
7 8 4 Rex White 197 $1,550 Chevrolet
8 35 94 Banjo Matthews 197 $1,050 Pontiac
9 38 1 Ned Jarrett 196 $850 Chevrolet
10 17 44 Bob Welborn 194 $750 Pontiac
1964 Pontiac Grand Prix Commercial (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoxMqV6r-T0#)
HD Dinah Shore "See the U.S.A. in Your Chevrolet" from "Dinah Shore Chevy Show" (1956-1963) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkzGqzRLq4g#)
Transformational America
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On a related topic: The number of miles Americans Drive as a gauge of the recession (http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2012/02/using-miles-to-measure-recessions.html)
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OK, here we go...the spike in prices at the pump -
There are plenty of reasons for the high prices, and lots of reasons to fear a big price spike in the spring, said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for OPIS.
"Early February crude oil prices are higher than they've ever been on similar calendar dates through the years, and the price of crude sets the standard for gasoline prices," Kloza said, later adding, "We've lost a number of refineries in the last six months (to permanent closure). Some of those refineries represented the key to a smooth spring transition from winter-to-spring gasoline."
http://www.mcall.com/business/mc-gas-prices-20120214,0,2776477.story?track=rss (http://www.mcall.com/business/mc-gas-prices-20120214,0,2776477.story?track=rss)
Digging deeper into these reasons for refinery closures, there is ample evidence to place it at the feet of Obama due to his economic depression and hatred of the oil industry!
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/02/08/petroleum-imports-and-exports-whats-the-story/ (http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/02/08/petroleum-imports-and-exports-whats-the-story/)
But I'm sure the Repub's will blow this narrative as well...just like caving in on payroll tax BS...our so-called leaders totally suck!
::gaah::
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The higher Oil goes, the more GDP Falls. (http://205.254.135.24/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/aeo_2006analysispapers/efhop.html)
Over a sustained period ( 2 years) the paper above estimates .5% of GDP is lost for every $10 increase in Gasloine - if the current GDP numbers of 1.6%-2.8% growth are to be believed ( I don't) then it only takes a $30-$50 increase per barrel to reduce growth to zero. So if oil increases to $150 a barrel (which is equivalent to $5/gallon gasoline to give some reference) for an extended period of time (like a year) , growth in GDP will basically become impossible. Meanwhile the government will continue to increase spending at 6-8%, while revenues will stay where they are or even decrease.
Here is a calculator for World GDP (http://static.reuters.com/resources/media/global/editorial/interactives/oil_price_calculator/oil_price_calculator.html) using IMF numbers ( again too high) - if Oil were to reach $200 a barrel, world production growth would also become impossible.
Given the unrest in the Middle East , and the fact we just let China buy the pipeline oil, I don't think $150/barrel is improbable here. Obama's plan to destroy the U.S. is proceeding according to plan.
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But I think it is wroking faster than even he thought possible...he just said recently that "recovery" (cough! gag!) was going to be off another year or two.
Here's to having higher gas prices drive GDP further into the sh*tter and hitting the next debt cieling number in recod time!
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::gaah::