It's About Liberty: A Conservative Forum
Topics => Economy => Topic started by: Libertas on February 10, 2012, 01:32:22 PM
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-revises-cbo-deficit-forecast-predicts-110-debt-gdp-end-2013 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-revises-cbo-deficit-forecast-predicts-110-debt-gdp-end-2013)
Doing some quick & dirty computations here...using 2012 & 2016 US Debt Clock numbers and GDP growth rates as shown (this thing is as rosey as I can make it!) we are headed to oblivion at breakneck speed!
Year GDP Growth National Debt Debt:GDP
2011 15,100,000,000,000.00 2% 14,000,000,000,000.00 92.72%
2012 15,402,000,000,000.00 2% 15,336,000,000,000.00 99.57%
2013 15,864,060,000,000.00 3% 17,095,800,000,000.00 107.76%
2014 16,498,622,400,000.00 4% 18,855,600,000,000.00 114.29%
2015 17,158,567,296,000.00 4% 20,615,400,000,000.00 120.15%
2016 17,844,909,987,840.00 4% 24,135,000,000,000.00 135.25%
2017 18,558,706,387,353.60 4% 25,894,800,000,000.00 139.53%
2018 19,301,054,642,847.70 4% 27,654,600,000,000.00 143.28%
2019 20,073,096,828,561.70 4% 29,414,400,000,000.00 146.54%
2020 20,876,020,701,704.10 4% 31,174,200,000,000.00 149.33%
Good luck hiding that, Obama, you commie jackass!!!
::outrage::
::gaah::
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(this thing is as rosey as I can make it!)
Rosy? That is covered with Unicorn farts. We are not going to see 4% GDP growth for at least 10 years. Possibly not in my lifetime. Now for a fun excercise compare those numbers with those of Greece - you know that country that is imploding and threatening to knock over all of the Euro's dominos? Hell, compare those numbers to the European average. And What domino is expose to the fall of those dominos? Print it faster Timmy!
(Also keep in mind how badly our GDP number is manipulated and adjusted and that it contains government spending!)
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/Greece_public_debt_1999-2010.svg/500px-Greece_public_debt_1999-2010.svg.png)
(http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c341/weisshaupt/us_total_debt_100.png)
(this graph has numbers different from the one Libertas did above because it include State contracted debt as well. )
Most countries in as much debt as our current will have begun to collapse by now. We have the reserve status so we are able to devalue the dollar without a collapse for a while, because other countires are not (yet) willing to pay the cost of dumping their treasuries. The first one who is willing to do so, will cause a cascade and destroy us in days. If however, everyone agrees to avoid that and play ball, these totals can go pretty high, and significant inflation will kick in. We won't be bankrupt, because we can print up the money needed ot bpay our debts, but the dollar implictly looses value on the wolrd stage the entire tiem we do it, and eventually a new currency will become the reserve, at which point our cost for overseas goods will skyrocket. Oh, there is just so much to look forward to.
(http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c341/weisshaupt/us_interest_100.png)
Interest payments at about 12% is where most countries fail. Of course the Fed has announced its intention to keep rates low (even negative) so that will probably not be a determining factor in our case. It will be high inflation in an envrionemnt with low rates, till either the Fed raises rates and the majoc 12% limit is breeched, or a spiral into hyperinflation.
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The "Rosie Scenario". ::)
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Yesterday , watching the Italian Prime Minister explaining Italy's economy to Stymie was like watching a guy teach card tricks to a dog ... In Italian !
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Yup Weisshaupt, I added those Unicorn farts on purpose, just to hammer the point home how truly awful the reality is!
When reality is no longer able to be masked, the scope of horror will hit like a brick wall.
"Oh, there is just so much to look forward to."
Yeah.
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Unfortunately for us the media is still doing excellent cover up wrok for the regime. The morons that voted it in place still believe that things can only get better as in we've turned that perverbial corner so they'll just vote the shmucks back into power. ::newyear::