Topic: Energy Trader HFSL event, Polar Vortex & "Last Resort" Rotating outages

[Libertas]

"we've officially hit the 'Holy f**king sh*t Levels' here..."



"If I was a betting man, I'd say folks are going to go out of business and we'll see more consolidation in this market, prior to a massive overhaul of market structure."

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/energy-emergency-texas-power-provider-warns-rotating-outages-cold-weather-tests-limits-grid

IMO I interpret this to mean the PTB's are exploiting this as a means to consolidate more power into oligarch hands...and any so-called "overhaul" entails covering tracks and sweeping into the memory hole...

Regional info towards the end of the link. 

Can't wait to see the natural gas bitch-slap coming my way...

/

Guess that weather-control machine is being used for evil, not good...eh?

[Pandora]

It says a lot, and none of it good, that in this day and age and here in the US that we're having electricity/power "issues".  The makers have known how to do this and do it well and have done for decades+.  We need the takers and obstructionists gone.

They want us freezing and starving in the dark ....... those of us they don't want dead.

[Libertas]

They know not what desperation can breed.

[paulh]

Wood Heat versus cuddling although that would be nice after last nites "Naked and afraid"

[patentlymn]

Here is what you do, starting with cheap producing coal fired plant(s).

1. Build your solar and wind.
2. Build lots of transmission lines to collect all the power.
3. Build even more lines to deliver to the distant city consumers.
4. Build new gas fired plant(s) with the same capacity as the wind plus solar because only gas can spin up fast enough to fill in for the fickle wind and solar. You can only run the gas plants when wind and solar are not enough. So you have to recover the capital cost while only operating the plants part time.
5. Tear down one or more coal plants.

Wind and solar depend greatly on location and climate. In MN solar is joke. There is some wind in SW MN.

When people say solar is cheaper than coal they do not provide details especially how many of the steps above are included. Also, for what location?

People in AU are whining because they cannot sell all their rooftop solar back to the utilities.

[patentlymn]

A recent local article for MN.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/02/wind-and-solar-energy-dont-work.php

POSTED ON FEBRUARY 10, 2021 BY JOHN HINDERAKER IN ENERGY POLICY, GREEN NEW DEAL
WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY DON’T WORK
Leftists fantasize that before long, we can dispense with all reliable energy sources–coal, natural gas, nuclear, even hydro–and run our society entirely on wind and solar, two forms of energy that have been obsolete for 150 years.
...
Temperatures are below zero in many parts of the state, but wind energy is missing in action.

According to data from the regional grid operator, the wind is providing just 1 percent of the current electricity on the grid, and solar is providing just 0.31 percent. Coal currently accounts for 55 percent of generation, natural gas accounts for 28 percent, and nuclear accounts for 14 percent.

Not only is wind not producing much electricity, but it is also producing only a small fraction of its potential output. There are 22,000 megawatts (MW) of wind capacity installed on the regional grid, but these wind turbines are only producing 1,055 MW of electricity. In other words, wind turbines are only producing 4.8 percent of their potential output. Temperatures are below zero in many parts of the state, but wind energy is missing in action.

[patentlymn]

Meanwhile in Buffalo Ridge MN, the site of all the windmills in SW MN.
Imagine the humidity is relative humidity, as it is real cold air.
-13°F
Precipitation: 1%
Humidity: 62%
Wind: 3 mph

Half of Texas Wind Turbines Freeze, Hurting Electricity Output

Nearly half of the wind turbines in the state of Texas froze in recent winter weather, hurting state power supplies, according to state authorities.

https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2021/02/15/half-of-texas-wind-turbines-freeze-hurting-electricity-output/

Long ago I spent a week on the start up of the Rawhide energy station below. It had snowed on the process control computer we made. It was also covered in cement dust. They lifted heavy stuff in through a hatch in the roof. They left it open for a long time .....

https://www.prpa.org/news-releases/platte-river-to-retire-rawhide-unit-1-by-2030/
Closure will mark end to all coal-fired generation for utility

FORT COLLINS, Colo., June 16, 2020 – The Platte River Power Authority today announced that its Rawhide Unit 1 generating resource will cease producing electricity by 2030, 16 years before its planned retirement date.

Platte River’s Board approved the Resource Diversification Policy in December 2018, calling for a 100% noncarbon energy mix by 2030, and planners immediately began studying future energy mix options without the use of its 280 MW coal-fired unit as part of its integrated resource planning (IRP) process. While the IRP is currently on hold until public meetings and stakeholder engagement resumes, Platte River’s leadership needed to announce Unit 1’s retirement to support state regulatory timelines that align with the broader objectives for a noncarbon future
...
Construction to build Rawhide Unit 1, on ground northwest of Wellington, Colorado began in 1979 and commercial operations started in 1984. Unit 1 quickly emerged as Platte River’s most reliable source of low-cost energy for its four owner communities of Estes Park, Fort Collins, Longmont and Loveland.
...
The baseload unit has earned national recognition for its reliability, capacity and environmental performance. Throughout its life, Unit 1 has operated with an equivalent availability factor of 97.28%, running thousands of hours between planned or unplanned outages, delivering energy up to its nameplate capacity. When built, the unit featured state-of-the art emissions controls that most plants were not required to have and more were added before regulatory mandates.

[Libertas]

It's embarrassing...at state known for oil...fooling with those expensive always breaking down dumbass wind turbines...   

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/4-million-texans-without-power-amid-grid-collapse-second-storm-nears

Tonight they think they'll have it on...

Seriously, don't know how the grid works down there, but I know how it works up here...mainlines run all over...our companies buy and sell KWs with outfits in neighboring states and even Canadian providers to meet each others needs...

Ahh ha...an update, they do have access - "The Southwest Power Pool (SSP), which manages the electric grid and wholesale power market for the central US, including Kansas, Oklahoma, portions of New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming, and Nebraska, said Tuesday morning that blackouts would continue for a second day."

So basically TX was told because of the even colder conditions north, they have nothing to spare.

Just shows you how vulnerable things are and how people need plan b or plan c...

ETA - The ironic part...

https://twitter.com/lukelegate/status/1361149723072208896

 

His Fraudulence would prevent such things from flying and such things being sprayed...and people would die and that'd be OK with him because, hey, bunch of deplorable Texans mostly, eh?

[Libertas]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1361353720689221635

Not equipped to handle the cold...a sure sign of global warming run amok....   

And no power, no oil...

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/biggest-u-s-oil-refinery-shutting-down-because-of-cold-weather

And DemCom's are citing this as a reason for MORE "renewable" BS!   

Idiocracy should not be a blueprint!

And speaking of idiots...witness the DemCom hive of Houston...

https://abc13.com/eerie-photo-of-skyline-sparks-outrage-amid-power-outages/10343210/

 

[patentlymn]

I actually watched a little bit of MSM this AM to catch reports on TX.
CBS said that the blackouts were caused by too much demand.
ERCOT(?) said their grid system was working but there was this unprecedented weather.....

Tony Heller posts more about the Rawhide energy station. He shows lots of solar panels near the site. BTW he is a very long term environmentalist and wildlife photographer.
He shows that gasoline prices started increasing after the election. In fairness to Biden, I cannot see a mechanism that would take effect after the election. Energy futures could.
Eventually decreased fracking and oil production will cause prices to rise.

5 min in he shows the Rawhide energy plant.
https://rumble.com/vdvg8f-civilization-hijacked.html
Rumble — The green energy industry has hijacked civilization, the environmental movement, and common sense.

[Libertas]

I can see a lot of fallout from this...legal, economic...and political, not just TX but it'll go national too, and international with the disruption spilling into Mexico...

Update (1929 ET):  Gov. Greg Abbott told ABC13 Houston that ERCOT had provided him with zero answers about the ongoing power grid collapse across Texas.

ABC13's Gina Gaston asked Abbott if ERCOT leadership should resign. He immediately responded with "yes."
.
.
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Update (1818 ET): CenterPoint Energy, the utility that delivers electricity to Houston-area homes and distributes natural gas, provided an update on the ongoing grid chaos in Texas with some bad news Tuesday evening.

CenterPoint said power shortages could last "several more days" and warned customers "to take precautions for their personal safety."
.
.
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Update (1415 ET): Rolling blackouts and power outages have hit 15 states on Tuesday as a polar vortex dumps Arctic air into much of the country.

According to PowerOutage.US, 15 states are experiencing rolling blackouts or outages because of extreme weather. Most of the outages are seen in Texas, with over 4 million customers without power (as of this update).

Top Areas by Outages
Texas   4,197,673
Oregon   230,247
Kentucky   144,615
Louisiana   115,795
West Virginia   95,737
The polar vortex will continue pouring frigid air into much of the country through this week. Temperature anomalies are well below normal, creating major power-grid chaos.

The disruption has spilled over into Mexico, where the US has curbed natural gas exports, resulting in power stations grinding to a halt.

OilPrice.com expands more on the chaos unfolding across Mexico's northern power grid.

The plummeting natural gas exports from the United States to Mexico amid an Arctic cold spell in the country that has led to a gas demand surge is causing blackouts in northern Mexico, with some 4.77 million households and businesses left without power on Monday.

Argus noted that most of the natural gas Mexico receives from the United States comes from the Permian, where the production of both oil and gas has been affected by the cold weather that has caused power outages across Texas.

Oil wells are being shut down, and so are refineries along the Gulf Coast, Reuters reported earlier today, adding oil and gas pipeline operations were also disrupted by the weather.

The blackouts, Bloomberg reports, will strengthen the government's argument that Mexico needs to be less dependent on energy imports, with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador spearheading the drive to reduce this dependency. Obrador wants to boost Mexico's domestic oil and gas production to tackle the problem, but this has proved challenging without the participation of private energy companies as the president seeks to fortify the dominant status of state energy major Pemex.

* * *

Update (1313 ET): Gov. Greg Abbott has requested LNG exporter Freeport to limit gas intake as domestic supplies are low due to frozen wellheads.
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.
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Update (1256 ET): Following the power grid collapse in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott released a statement Tuesday that "declared the reform" of ERCOT in the new legislative session. Abbott will pressure lawmakers to investigate ERCOT's failures and make sure rolling blackouts never happen again.

"The Electric Reliability Council of Texas has been anything but reliable over the past 48 hours," said Abbott. "Far too many Texans are without power and heat for their homes as our state faces freezing temperatures and severe winter weather. This is unacceptable. Reviewing the preparations and decisions by ERCOT is an emergency item so we can get a full picture of what caused this problem and find long-term solutions. I thank my partners in the House and Senate for acting quickly on this challenge, and I will work with them to enhance Texas' electric grid and ensure that our state never experiences power outages like this again."

Update (1234 ET): ERCOT officials have promised to restore some power generation today, but according to PowerOutage.US, around 1221 ET, there are more than 4.423 million customers without electricity in the state. That's up 100k since 0900 ET.
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Update (1208 ET): There are three major power grids in the Lower 48 states: the Eastern Interconnection, the Western Interconnection — and Texas Interconnection.

The Texas grid is called ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas). It covers 90% of the state's electric load except for El Paso and the upper Panhandle, and East Texas.



Local utilities under ERCOT have pledged not to sell their power to out-of-state customers. Texas grid's independence dates back to World War II.

While there's little pressure to integrate ERCOT into the national grid, that could all change with the latest wave of blackouts across the Lone Star State.

* * *

Update (1003 ET): Some Texans have been living in their cars to stay warm as rolling blackouts have left millions without power.


https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/4-million-texans-without-power-amid-grid-collapse-second-storm-nears


What a total fustercluck.  It's breaking finally in my neck of the woods, light snow and expected to hit a balmy 15F or something and get warmer, so things should break further south as the impetus sputters out.

[ToddF]

I read a lot of their problems stem from the lack of basic winterization.  Just because you go 10-20 years between major arctic fronts, doesn't mean you've stopped ever getting major arctic fronts.  This kind of weather has happened in Texas, before.  No all time records were broken, that I've seen.  Close, but no cigar.

[Libertas]

Equipment and infra-structure wise, yes, definitely.  Good call out.

ETA - And this BS...

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/local/texas-ercot-power-outage-energy-demand-price-change/269-53ab63e2-8dcf-4485-8b9b-be6ad75316b4

People should storm their castle...

These morons just admitted that they suck at long term capital planning, budgeting and prioritization...and their fellow cronies on the PUC make a nice scape goat for shrugging shoulders and passing the pain on the already abused customers...and I'll bet all senior exec's got handsomely rewarded for their incompetence...

They ought to be told to go screw themselves.

Folks need to get a wood stove installed, stock up on wood...as a backup at a minimum.

Also...government is already eagerly planning to make things exponentially worse...

https://apnews.com/article/us-winter-weather-latest-update-10907c7a52d20ce1d752f9b5d9acb5a1





H/T-WZ

And in the people's enlightened commune of Austin...

https://www.weaselzippers.us/464609-peoples-republic-of-austin-becomes-hunger-games-after-food-runs-out/

...awww, ain't that a shame?

[patentlymn]

The MSM is so lame. I am reading different things. I will post more when I have time, with links.
-The cold weather itself is shutting down oil/gas/gasoline production.
-Lack of electricity to oil/gas/gasoline producers is shutting down production.
-The grid accidentally shut down electricity to oil/gas/gasoline producers and shut down production. 
-Last week 42% of electricity in TX was from wind. (But the drop from wind did not cause this /sarcasm)

It is sad to see the greenies saying that reliance on wind and solar is not to blame. They are like the commie true believers in the Russian revolution.

I read that it is not economically viable to build most gas power plants because the deck is stacked in favor of wind solar and you can only run them when there is not enough from wind and solar.

[patentlymn]

A little more quantitative info on TX. I do not know the details of the wind and solar subsidies. I think that the utilities have to buy the wind and solar ahead of thermally produced energy which can only run part of the time. And wind and solar are not responsible for the costs of the needed nat gas plants. I.e. the wind and solar are NOT bound to deliver a set amount of electricity. When they do they are paid a set fee. When they cannot there is no downside.

[this thread is very good]
https://twitter.com/ChuckDeVore/status/1361735012710670337

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2021/02/17/one-thread-explains-how-texas-adoption-of-ca-model-for-energy-led-to-disaster-af-n2584852?

One Thread Explains How Texas' Adoption of CA Model for Energy Led to Disaster After Brutal Winter Storm

Also here are three recent Tony Heller videos, last one dealing with TX
I worked one week at the Rawhide energy station long ago for a contractor.
https://rumble.com/vdvg8f-civilization-hijacked.html
https://rumble.com/vdw3ev-coal-vs.-green.html
https://rumble.com/vdwd0f-spinning-the-turbines.html

[Alphabet Soup]

I want one of these shirts!

[Alphabet Soup]

I remember one winter storm when I was living in a rental house. The power was out for 5 days. I finally had to abandon the place because it so totally failed in the basics for survival. I vowed then & there that the next house I purchased must have

1. A woodstove
2. Gas heat and gas range
3. A well
4. A backup generator

I found everything except the well with my current home. I've gone 8 days without power and it's not unlike camping. I'll be damned if I'll be a slave to the built-in failures of the system!

[Pandora]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/psaki-says-coal-natural-gas-not-frozen-wind-turbines-caused-power-grid-failure-texas-cold-snap-video/

And she says it with a straight face.

[Libertas]

I was raised not to strike a girl...that being said I'm pretty certain my mother would be all for smashing this lying Bolshevik bitch right in the pie-hole!


Jen Psaki, JoeFraud's Bolshevik Minister of Propaganda H/T-WZ

https://conservativewar.com/blatant-lie-biden-administration-says-coal-natural-gas-caused-texas-blackouts-not-frozen-wind-turbines/





ETA - And this gold-digging Bolshevik...

https://www.weaselzippers.us/464652-beto-orourke-blames-global-warming-for-cold-weather-in-texas/

...should have no sanctuary anywhere!


H/T-WZ

[patentlymn]

I remember one winter storm when I was living in a rental house. The power was out for 5 days. I finally had to abandon the place because it so totally failed in the basics for survival. I vowed then & there that the next house I purchased must have

1. A woodstove
2. Gas heat and gas range
3. A well
4. A backup generator

I found everything except the well with my current home. I've gone 8 days without power and it's not unlike camping. I'll be damned if I'll be a slave to the built-in failures of the system!

I would like a stove (cast iron) that can burn coal as well. My woodstove in the kitchen just eats wood and it will go out over time. I am told coal stoves have 'klinkers' that can reignite a fire after days. My kitchen wood stove takes up too much space and would likely go in a remodel.

In my old house in MN it is hard to balance the heat. If it gets real cold I light an LP sunflower heater in the living room.
I think it is safe. I used to measure CO all the time and still have alarms set. No problem.
I have hot water heat with mostly old steam radiators.
There are no doors on the living room so heat runs up the stairs to second floor, where the door is usually closed.