Okay, so here's the thing on the Gallup poll "details."
Yes, it's true that today's poll uses (among others) the following numbers:
Oct. 2008 Oct 2012
BO McDud BO Romney
East 57 43 52 48 +14 +4
Midwest 53 47 52 48 +6 +4
South 50 50 39 61 0 -22
West 55 45 53 47 +10 +6
What the cretins at DK don't want to see (or think about) is that in 2008 the south did not matter. It was a draw. BO beat McDud by seven points in 2008 and he did it with
the other numbers. Four years later BO has lost ten points in the east, two points in the midwest and four points in the west. I don't see any areas of the country where BO hasn't lost ground...he just happens to have lost
more ground in the south.
It's worth reading the rest of
the data that goes along with the Gallup numbers. BO is up with post college grads, under 30-year-olds and non-caucasians. Just about every other demo or category he is down in.
What is troubling is that Rassmussen (which has tended to be more historically accurate) is not showing this pulling away by Romney. Not yet. Rassmussen has Romney over BO by 49% to 48% with 2% undecided. What is very troubling is the swing state tracking poll that shows BO over Romney by 50% to 47%. I don't know how he puts these things together. But it's troubling.
But tomorrow is another day and another likely voter poll.
EDIT: I would be interested to know how the table functions work. If anyone knows how to format a table or can figure it out I would appreciate it.
