Topic: Presidential Election Watch 2012: The Democrat Edition

[charlesoakwood]

He has white, non-Hispanic and non-white (including Hispanic) but
no Hispanic.  What's up Gallup, with the all important Hispanic demographic?

[trapeze]

Mary Katherine Ham has some poll analysis in this post at HotAir.

[IronDioPriest]

The fact that it's close and not a slam-dunk against a blatant Marxist is something that to me spells disaster for the future, regardless of the outcome of this election.

[Predator Don]

 ::bustamove::F

The fact that it's close and not a slam-dunk against a blatant Marxist is something that to me spells disaster for the future, regardless of the outcome of this election.

My brother laments this every time we speak. Even if romney wins a close election, very fact it's close spells trouble.

[trapeze]

Well, my personal gut feeling is that it will NOT be close...that it will be a blowout.

There is, of course, new Rassmussen data out today and it shows post debate improvement for Romney, up another point over BO. I would advise reading Ed Morrissey's take on it here.

[LadyVirginia]

Well, my personal gut feeling is that it will NOT be close...that it will be a blowout.

One of my daughters' Hillsdale  professors Dr. Paul Rahe has written extensively on how he believes the same thing.  He was predicting the 2010 results when others were not.

There is, of course, new Rassmussen data out today and it shows post debate improvement for Romney, up another point over BO. I would advise reading Ed Morrissey's take on it here.

Also, the gender gap now favors Romney rather than Obama.  In 2008?s exit polling, Obama won women by 13 points and men by one for a +14 gender gap over John McCain and a seven-point victory overall.  In the tracking poll data, Rasmussen reports that Obama only leads among women by four and trails among men by 10 for a -6 gender gap.  That’s a flip of 19 points, combined with a 17-point flip among independents.
 
Those are daunting numbers for Obama.  Combine those with the enthusiasm changes since 2008, and it’s not difficult to imagine that Romney’s actual lead might be significantly wider than the +2 overall here.  At least in the first round of data, it doesn’t appear that the debate on Tuesday night did Obama any good.

[Pandora]

I really dislike all the poll-talk, although I get that some people find it very interesting.  It just makes me uneasy.

[RickZ]

I really dislike all the poll-talk, although I get that some people find it very interesting.  It just makes me uneasy.

Polls are bullsh*t, at least the ones we see and hear about, especially with a sampling error of D + Gazillion.  The internals of a campaign, now those I would like to see.  But really, polls are being used now to push propaganda and suppress the vote as well.  When the polls are egregiously wrong, who pays for it?  Whose heads roll?  Yeah, thought so, too.

And I don't believe that 'undecided' crapola, either.  We've become afraid to speak our minds to strangers on the phone, and with good reason.  That's why no one is willing to be adamant about voting the commie rat bastard out of office.  That would be racist or something.

[Predator Don]

I really dislike all the poll-talk, although I get that some people find it very interesting.  It just makes me uneasy.

Polls are bullsh*t, at least the ones we see and hear about, especially with a sampling error of D + Gazillion.  The internals of a campaign, now those I would like to see.  But really, polls are being used now to push propaganda and suppress the vote as well.  When the polls are egregiously wrong, who pays for it?  Whose heads roll?  Yeah, thought so, too.

And I don't believe that 'undecided' crapola, either.  We've become afraid to speak our minds to strangers on the phone, and with good reason.  That's why no one is willing to be adamant about voting the commie rat bastard out of office.  That would be racist or something.

Rick I agree....obama and his minions have so polarized the nation, using claims of racism and bigotry, that I believe there are significient numbers of people who will not allow thier true thoughts to be recorded.

Which is sad....My gov't needs to fear me, not me fear my gov't.

[RickZ]

I really dislike all the poll-talk, although I get that some people find it very interesting.  It just makes me uneasy.

Polls are bullsh*t, at least the ones we see and hear about, especially with a sampling error of D + Gazillion.  The internals of a campaign, now those I would like to see.  But really, polls are being used now to push propaganda and suppress the vote as well.  When the polls are egregiously wrong, who pays for it?  Whose heads roll?  Yeah, thought so, too.

And I don't believe that 'undecided' crapola, either.  We've become afraid to speak our minds to strangers on the phone, and with good reason.  That's why no one is willing to be adamant about voting the commie rat bastard out of office.  That would be racist or something.

Rick I agree....obama and his minions have so polarized the nation, using claims of racism and bigotry, that I believe there are significient numbers of people who will not allow thier true thoughts to be recorded.

Which is sad....My gov't needs to fear me, not me fear my gov't.

Problem is, it's not the government who makes all the threats.  When the Truth becomes a radical idea, everyone is a target.  It's not the government calling them 'racists' they fear.  It's the mob they fear and the mentality that we have seen exhibited from such thugs time and time again.  It doesn't matter if it's ACORN or Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton or goonions or the ACLU or whichever leftist group is offended at the moment, they are all there to create fear in freely and publically speaking about that rotten scoundrel, The Truth.  Meanwhile, The Law looks the other way when threats and actual violence takes place (the goonions getting off in the beating of Gladney in St. Louis).  I have read many comments that campaign signs are down, with Romney in the lead; same for bumper stickers.  Why make a target of yourself or your property to the Leftist 'peace loving' goons?  My gut feeling is that people are hunkering down, trying to be invisible; lying to telephone pollsters is just one more example of trying to be invisible.

[Libertas]

The silent and unseen majority.  As long as they show up at the polls in droves and a burning passion to send the SCoaMF packing!  

[Pandora]

I admit to not putting a magnetic Romney sticker on my truck because I don't want my vehicle vandalized, but I refuse to speak to - or listen to -- pollsters out of "it's none of your G.D. business", not fear. 

It's the same as dealing with the census -- residents:  2, and that's all I'm telling them -- and the first question I ask anyone who wants information from me, "why and what do you want it for?"  No, I'm not giving you my phone number or zipcode at the cash register, and no, I'm not giving you my social security number in order to see the doctor, and it's none of your business why I buy 55 lb. bags of sugar.

So, while I enjoy thinking sometimes that I'm one of the most ornery around, maybe a lot of other folks are looking at the repeated attempts to acquire personal information from them and have just had enough.

[Libertas]

I admit to not putting a magnetic Romney sticker on my truck because I don't want my vehicle vandalized, but I refuse to speak to - or listen to -- pollsters out of "it's none of your G.D. business", not fear. 

It's the same as dealing with the census -- residents:  2, and that's all I'm telling them -- and the first question I ask anyone who wants information from me, "why and what do you want it for?"  No, I'm not giving you my phone number or zipcode at the cash register, and no, I'm not giving you my social security number in order to see the doctor, and it's none of your business why I buy 55 lb. bags of sugar.

So, while I enjoy thinking sometimes that I'm one of the most ornery around, maybe a lot of other folks are looking at the repeated attempts to acquire personal information from them and have just had enough.

Oh, you are not alone.  INTRUSIVENESS is a big no-no for a lot of us! 

Hmm, even though I like the message it conveys, not sure my car is something I can put the Yosemite Sam "Back Off" mudflaps on, but if I get a pick up truck!!!   

[LadyVirginia]

the census -- residents:  2, and that's all I'm telling them --

hehehe    More than I told.  My genealogist-daughter said I screwed up the family history that will be available in 68 years when the 2010 census is released.  I hope someone cares in 68 years!

I don't give out phone, email, etc, either. 

[trapeze]

I remind everyone that Romney is trending up with the D+ samples.

Four different polls show Romney with a TWENTY point lead with white voters...hasn't happened for a Republican since 1984. Sort of makes ANY Democrat advantage with Hispanics irrelevant.

Again, I say, "Be of good cheer. The end is near."

[Pandora]

the census -- residents:  2, and that's all I'm telling them --

hehehe    More than I told.  My genealogist-daughter said I screwed up the family history that will be available in 68 years when the 2010 census is released.  I hope someone cares in 68 years!

I don't give out phone, email, etc, either. 

Oh, that's another one!  "Do you have email?"  What's it to ya?  "NO."  Because that's just what I want, more junk email.  "Is this your only phone number?"  Like I'm going to give the TracPhone cell number too, but I know folks who do, for the asking.

And shame on you for screwing up the family history.       

[Predator Don]

I really dislike all the poll-talk, although I get that some people find it very interesting.  It just makes me uneasy.

Polls are bullsh*t, at least the ones we see and hear about, especially with a sampling error of D + Gazillion.  The internals of a campaign, now those I would like to see.  But really, polls are being used now to push propaganda and suppress the vote as well.  When the polls are egregiously wrong, who pays for it?  Whose heads roll?  Yeah, thought so, too.

And I don't believe that 'undecided' crapola, either.  We've become afraid to speak our minds to strangers on the phone, and with good reason.  That's why no one is willing to be adamant about voting the commie rat bastard out of office.  That would be racist or something.

Rick I agree....obama and his minions have so polarized the nation, using claims of racism and bigotry, that I believe there are significient numbers of people who will not allow thier true thoughts to be recorded.

Which is sad....My gov't needs to fear me, not me fear my gov't.

Problem is, it's not the government who makes all the threats.  When the Truth becomes a radical idea, everyone is a target.  It's not the government calling them 'racists' they fear.  It's the mob they fear and the mentality that we have seen exhibited from such thugs time and time again.  It doesn't matter if it's ACORN or Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton or goonions or the ACLU or whichever leftist group is offended at the moment, they are all there to create fear in freely and publically speaking about that rotten scoundrel, The Truth.  Meanwhile, The Law looks the other way when threats and actual violence takes place (the goonions getting off in the beating of Gladney in St. Louis).  I have read many comments that campaign signs are down, with Romney in the lead; same for bumper stickers.  Why make a target of yourself or your property to the Leftist 'peace loving' goons?  My gut feeling is that people are hunkering down, trying to be invisible; lying to telephone pollsters is just one more example of trying to be invisible.

No, Gov't doesn't make all the threats...but it is this gov't in particular which has emboldened The ACORNS of this nation to operate with impunity....But I do not disagree with one word of your post. Most people want to be left alone, imo. Go to work, come home, be with family and live thier life, but we are witness to a fundemental change in our nation, and not just toward a socialist America.

I believe its also difficult for average Joe to think of what might be the consequence of an obama defeat. The left always talks about voter intimidation or following the LAW to vote.....But the two goons in Philly, clubs in hand, is in my opinion the REAL America the left wants, good people too afraid to come out and vote. Leftists want us to be quiet, sure, but if they keep us from the polls they win.

[LadyVirginia]

"Is this your only phone number?" 

Yes, yes, it is.  I don't mention I don't answer that number.  I screen all calls.

As for the family history--I'm sure I exist in hundreds of government records already.

[IronDioPriest]

Once I learned that roughly only 9% of people contacted to be surveyed in a poll actually respond to the questions, that changed my entire outlook on polls.

The numbers are representative not just of "likely voters" or "registered voters" or "adults" or what have you. The overriding qualifying caveat is that poll results are exclusively the 9% of people who are inclined to respond to a poll. Whether those 9% are representative of the general population at large is, I think, extremely questionable.

So I think polls are useful for those who are seeking trends, or who feel the need for some kind of indicator. But they prove nothing, and should give neither comfort or discomfort; encouragement or discouragement. They just are.

[Alphabet Soup]

"Is this your only phone number?" 

Yes, yes, it is.  I don't mention I don't answer that number.  I screen all calls.

As for the family history--I'm sure I exist in hundreds of government records already.

You obviously haven't studied at the Alphabet Soup school of Passive Aggressive Defense  

My older brother hated that I perfected PA because he is an "in your face" alpha type who had zero time for pretense (he was also several years older than I, substantially bigger, and much more aggressive than me).

Gubmit Drone: Do you have more than one phone number?

Me: why do you ask?

Gubmit Drone: In case we need to contact you.

Me: Why would you need to do that?

Gubmit Drone: In case there was something that needed to be clarified.

Me: Was I not clear in my answers?

Gubmit Drone: No, I mean yes - you were clear, but in case we have other questions.

Me: If you have questions why not ask me now?

Gubmit Drone: Well, I don't know.... What about email?

Me: What about email?

Gubmit Drone: Yes, do you have email?

Me: Yes.

Gubmit Drone: Well...

Me: (silently staring at gubmint drone with look of increasing impatience)

Gubmit Drone: Could we have your email?

Me: No.

Gubmit Drone: Why not?

Me: Why do you want it?

Gubmit Drone: In case we need to contact you.

Me: Why would you need to contact me?

Gubmit Drone: (head exploding)

(I live to torment)