Okay...some rather detailed polling analysis theory that throws quite a bit of cold water on Nate Silver's "538 model."
We can't know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney's advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.
Perhaps, despite the paucity of evidence to the contrary, these assumptions are wrong. But if they are correct, no mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.
Mathematics can be overcome through widespread fraud, cheating, intimidation and the media calling states for Obama before polls even close.
IMO only massive fraud and Democrat-Media Complex corruption can steal a Romney win...and if Romney prevails in a dominating electoral fashion (as he should) the only other way Obama can stay in power is through assuming dictatorial power.
The rallies for Mitt are enormous, the rallies for Stymie are pathetic, and even the tardlings are having a hard time drumming up support, the million moron march missed by about a million!
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2012/11/04/lame-million-puppet-march-draws-hundreds The Mitt-mentum is surging, Obama has nothing...