Byron York, WashEx....
In FL straw poll, a late surge for Herman CainORLANDO -- There's no scientific polling, but talks with dozens of delegates who will vote in today's Florida straw poll suggest that many are making last-minute decisions to vote for Herman Cain.
What seems to be happening is this: A lot of delegates came to Orlando planning to vote for Rick Perry. But Perry's poor performance at Thursday night's Fox News-Google debate gave them pause and re-opened the question of whom they will support. And many of the conservatives who were attracted to Perry will, when asked for a second choice, naturally gravitate to Cain, who, it just happens, had a particularly good debate on Thursday. So with Perry not commanding the loyalty he did just 48 hours ago, Cain appears to be picking up support.
It's not an exaggeration to say that everybody likes the Georgia businessman. The question is whether delegates view him as an actual contender for the Republican nomination. At the moment, his support is at 5.6 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, putting him in sixth place in the race, behind Perry, Romney, Paul, Bachmann and Gingrich. Not exactly a juggernaut.
Given that, it is not at unusual at all for delegates here to say, "I love Herman Cain, but I just don't think he can win." And that, to committed Cain supporters, is a source of great frustration. "Because of the people who say they love him but he can't get elected, it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy," says a man named Jimmy from Wilbur-By-The-Sea, Florida. "If they would all just love him and support him and not say, 'Well, can't get elected so I'm going to pick Romney or Perry' -- if they would all just love him and get behind him, he'd be the guy."
Could Cain actually win? It seems unlikely, but it's an outside possibility. Cain's fortunes depend on whether the delegates here decide to vote strategically -- to support the candidate they consider the most likely to win the Republican nomination and go on to general-election victory -- or to vote their principles and let practical matters work themselves out later. If the delegates go the latter route, a lot will choose Herman Cain.